There's A New Sign In The Market - 'Reduced Price'
A report from CNBC. "After several years of rich home price gains, the market appears to have found a limit to what people can afford. Sellers are finally responding by increasingly lowering prices. Approximately 14 percent of all listings in June had seen a price cut, that's up from a recent low of 11.7 percent at the end of 2016, according to Zillow. In addition, home price growth is slowing in nearly half of the 35 largest U.S. metropolitan markets. The market was thus suffering a critical shortage, just as demand was taking off. Prices had nowhere to go but up. Until now. In San Diego, 20 percent of all listings had a price cut in June, up from 12 percent a year ago. In Seattle, which continues to be the hottest market in the nation, 12 percent of all listings had a cut, the largest share in nearly four years."
"In Austin, also a very strong housing market thanks to a recent influx of technology jobs, more homes are seeing price cuts as well. 'We saw intense bidding on homes over the past few years, but that is calming down with more inventory in the area,' said B Barnett, a real estate agent with Reilly Realtors in Austin. 'Our inventory of homes is going up with new construction, and it is helping transfer power back to the buyer.'"
From the Dallas Morning News in Texas. "There's a new sign in the North Texas housing market - 'Reduced Price.' Almost 19 percent of the home sale listings in Dallas-Fort Worth had had at least one price cut, according to a new report from Zillow. That's up from about a 14 percent reduced price rate in D-FW a year ago. With home sales slowing and housing prices growing at a much slower rate than in recent years, sellers are sometimes over reaching with their asking prices, real estate agents say."
"Houses that just sit on the market often get a price reboot. The rate of home price cuts in D-FW is higher than the nationwide rate of 14 percent in June, according to Zillow."
The Columbus Dispatch in Ohio. "More home sellers are dropping their asking price, in Columbus and across the country, according to Zillow, suggesting that the housing market may finally be softening. In central Ohio, 15.1 percent of listings had cut prices in June, up from 12.5 percent a year ago. The figures are the latest of a handful of indications that the housing market may be starting to soften after six years of sky-high growth, although sellers still hold most of the cards."
"'The housing market has tilted sharply in favor of sellers over the past two years, but there are very early preliminary signs that the winds may be starting to shift ever so slightly,' said Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas. 'It’s far too soon to call this a buyer’s market. Home values are still expected to appreciate at double their historic rate over the next 12 months, but the frenetic pace of the housing market over the past few years is starting to return toward a more normal trend.'"
"In two cities - Tampa, Florida, and San Diego - at least 20 percent of listings saw price reductions in June."
From KOMO News in Washington. "Finally there is some good news for people struggling to buy a home in the Seattle area's red-hot real estate market. Zillow says more homes on the market here are seeing price cuts - nearly twice as many as last year. Some 12 percent of listings in Seattle had a price cut in the most recent reporting period - that's up from 6.9 percent a year ago. The typical price cut is 3.1 percent."
"There are also fewer buyers from outside the United States. Countries like China have made it harder to move money overseas. And Zillow is projecting that the slowdown in home prices will continue into next year."
From KOVA in Arizona. "New statistics from the Tucson Association of Realtors show the housing market is going through a slight summer slump. Total sales volume fell 15.91% percent to $347,114,173, while the average sale price fell 2.01 percent to $253,924. Also, the average listing price fell 1.53 percent to $260,279."
From Builder Online. "One top 10 home building firm has data that indicates a flash-point on house prices it's unwilling to risk triggering. An executive there notes: 'For every $1,000 we add to the selling price of a home in our [seven state] operating regions and divisions, we know we'd eliminate 250,000 households from our qualified buyer pool in those markets and submarkets.'"
"Right now, that's not a risk builders willingly take. New data from a BTIG/Homesphere survey of 75 to 100 small to midsize builders whose operations sell from 50 to 100 homes per year indicates that builders' ability to pass-along construction cost increases may have hit a cycle tipping point. While builders haven't gone so far as to lower base prices, more and more are apt to do the next best thing in order to keep driving the pace of absorptions in each of their subdivisions and communities."
"For the last five-and-a-half months of 2018, we're going to be hearing one word a lot: Incentives. Here's how the BTIG/Homesphere analysis contextualizes it: 'This month no builder surveyed reported a drop in base prices. 39% raised most or all of them, down from 50% in June. The 42% reporting increases in sales incentives was up from 33% in June, but note we would expect this trend to increase seasonally through the year. Not a single builder surveyed reported seeing lower mo/mo costs in land, labor nor materials.'"
"The most-recent analysis in The Z Report makes similar observations--'many builders increasing their exposure to more affordable price points of late, which is putting a downward skew to reported prices'--and comes to an identical conclusion about tactical pricing to keep pace and volume levels cranking: 'Any potential further deceleration in order activity will likely result in heightened incentives into year end, which could put pressure on gross margins heading into 2019.'"
"A parting thought challenge for you to ponder here. If a $1,000 increase in a per unit price for a builder prices out a quarter-of-a-million prospective buyers in its operational footprint, what would a $1,000 decrease in a like-for-like unit do to that buyer pool? "