From Bad To Worse To Horrible To Holy Crap!
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “After years of making Canadians feel steadily richer, home ownership is starting to do the opposite. When Pat Webb moved to Vancouver a year ago, she didn’t think twice about buying a condo in tony Kitsilano, among the hottest neighbourhoods in the city’s booming real estate market. But in August, the 70-year-old retiree decided to move back to the United States. She listed her one-bedroom, 705-square-foot condo for the price she paid - $509,000 - on Aug. 30. Ms. Webb has since reduced that to $485,000. It still hasn’t sold.”
“Today time is all but up, as Ms. Webb is moving back to California. Barring a last-minute miracle sale by her agent, Lindsay Wilkinson, Ms. Webb said she will try to rent out the condo this year and relist in the spring. ‘I’m disappointed, but not overly surprised,’ she said. ‘I was right on the cusp and then [the market] changed. So timing’s everything.’”
“Realtors from Long Island heard a slew of sob stories from other parts of the country at their annual gathering in Orlando last week. When one Long Island broker told a colleague from Atlanta, Georgia that her office had eight sales last month, she was impressed.”
“‘We’re getting killed by foreclosures,’ said the Atlanta broker. ‘The buyers think they’re going to steal a house for half price.’”
“There are some frank discussions going on these days between Realtors and their clients. ‘I’ve been very blunt and I tell them the truth about the appraised value of their home,’ said Caroline Chapman, a Realtor with Space Coast Realty Co. ‘You have to show them what’s happening in the market and if they can’t handle the price they’ll just have to take it off the market.’”
“The crippled Charlotte-area real estate market is feeling a new pain: Sales prices of home-building lots have taken a double-digit dive. The number of lots sold dropped by far more than 50 percent, the worst of this downturn. There were nearly 41,500 vacant, developed lots on the Charlotte market at the end of September. That represents more than three years of supply – the highest number and length of supply ever recorded in the area.”
“‘Everybody is taking a haircut,’ said Stephen Pace, a 30-year industry veteran and owner of Pace Development Group in Charlotte. ‘It’s a natural process, but it’s an ugly process.’”
“McStain Neighborhoods is closing its Louisville headquarters at the end of the month and postponing construction in two communitie…the latest area home builder getting whipsawed by the terrible housing market. ‘We have considered bankruptcy,’ said Tom Hoyt, who heads McStain with his wife.”
“From 10 a.m. until noon on Saturday, McStain will be selling about 100 pieces of furniture at a warehouse in Denver. ‘They’ll be at garage sale prices,’ said Tami Noel of McStain Home Studios. ‘They’re priced to move.’”
“John Ritter, CEO of Focus Property Group, said everybody was making money in Las Vegas during the heyday. ‘I think everyone right now is confused,’ the developer said during a panel discussion.”
“‘The market went from bad to worse, from worse to horrible and from horrible to ‘Holy crap.’ We’re in a period right now where no one knows where value is going. The sense is it’s going to get worse before it gets better,’ he also said.”
“A national report said Connecticut suffered the biggest yearly increase in foreclosures of any state in October. ‘Things are going to get worse in the near term,’ said Donald Klepper-Smith, an economist and chairman of Gov. M. Jodi Rell’s economic advisory panel. ‘We have to keep in mind a couple of things here. There is no evidence we are close to a bottom in the housing market. I expect the housing market to form a bottom next year because of further weakness in the job market. We’re in the fifth inning of a nine-inning game.’”
“The number of Clark County houses in foreclosure spiked in October, sending droves of desperate homeowners to the area’s only home mortgage counseling agency. ‘We’ve been inundated (with requests for counseling). It is just nonstop,’ said Teri Duffy, executive director of the nonprofit Community Housing Resource Center.”
“In a reversal of fortunes, Maui residents in need of affordable homes could buy about a dozen foreclosed residences next year under a program managed locally by Na Hale O Maui, a community land trust working to develop affordable housing. The federal Housing and Economic Recovery Act provides $3.92 billion nationally in emergency assistance to state and local governments to acquire and redevelop foreclosed properties.”
“‘It comes at a time when the foreclosure rate (on Maui) is going up rapidly,’ said John Andersen, executive director of Na Hale O Maui. ‘Maui’s foreclosures are increasing faster than the state as a whole. We’re running about two years behind the Mainland in this cycle. … We’re just beginning to see a wave of foreclosures.’”
“In Sacramento, Assembly Democrats are pushing a moratorium on banks and lenders that would keep them from filing default notices against homeowners for 120 days. Assemblyman Ted Lieu, D-Torrance, outlined how bad the crisis has gotten for California. ‘In August of this year, we had 101,000 foreclosure filings, the most of any state…That’s one filing about every thirty seconds.’”
“Cities and counties across the East Bay are set to become house flippers under an emergency federal program aimed at stabilizing neighborhoods hit hardest by the foreclosure epidemic. Antioch, Richmond, Oakland and Alameda and Contra Costa counties will receive a combined $24 million, much of it to buy, rehabilitate and sell foreclosed and abandoned homes.”
“‘It’ll be a drop in the bucket relative to needs out there,’ said James Kennedy, Contra Costa County’s redevelopment director, of the foreclosure epidemic. ‘Frankly, it’s overrun everybody.’”
“‘I have more questions than I have answers,’ said Janet Kennedy, housing coordinator for Antioch. ‘We don’t even know if the lenders or the banks are going to go along with it.’”
“Foreclosure filings continued to pile up along the Wasatch Front in October. ‘Most of the foreclosures are in speculative properties, subdivisions — that second home someone has built as an investment opportunity,’ said Tom Cook, an attorney with Salt Lake-based Lundberg & Associates. ‘Things haven’t changed much on borrower-occupied residences. I assume that will change when the economy continues to slide and people lose their jobs.’”
“The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced a major initiative Tuesday that aims to get struggling homeowners into mortgages they can afford. Kelly Matthews, senior economist with Wells Fargo, is questioning the effectiveness of the FHFA plan, even though it is modeled on one developed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to lower loan payments for borrowers with mortgages from the failed IndyMac Bank.”
“‘When the FDIC took over IndyMac, the FDIC owned those mortgages. That’s why they could write down those mortgages,’ he said. ‘But in Fannie and Freddie’s case…they don’t own the mortgages anymore.’”
“In places like Nevada and California – and a couple hundred thousand homes in Texas, too – homeowners owe more than their property is worth and aren’t interested in hanging around to see the end of this movie. They’re going to throw their keys on the kitchen counter, and they won’t lock the door behind them when they leave. If you doubt this, consider what I heard just last week at the National Association of Realtors’ conference in Florida.”
“James Lockhart, the poor fellow who’s had the oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac dumped in his lap, said Freddie Mac recently sent thousands of letters to borrowers offering to help with their loans. ‘Half the properties were vacant,’ Mr. Lockhart said. ‘A lot of those were investor properties.’”
“The change in strategy for the spending of $700 billion in federal stimulus funds, economists said, shows the credit crunch has spread beyond housing and the mortgage industry to other economic sectors that need help. ‘It is not that mortgage-backed securities are looking any less toxic but that other loan portfolios such as credit cards and auto loans are starting to look just as sick,” said Scott Anderson, senior economist with Wells Fargo & Co.”
“The change in direction, Anderson added, ‘has shaken the confidence that our financing architects really know what they are doing.’”
“‘The Federal Reserve has responded to unprecedented times with equally unprecedented actions … Such actions were appropriate given the challenges we faced,’ said Gary Stern, president of the Minneapolis Fed.”
“‘If we had grasped the net of connections of large financial firms in, say, 2006 instead of 2008, we might have taken steps to figure out how we might contain the ability of this network to spread risk,’ he said.”
“Even so, Stern said he was skeptical that the Fed could have foreseen the situation as it has played out, especially the carnage that the housing market collapse would create. ‘I certainly make no claim for having foreseen how the decline in housing prices would spill over so aggressively to the financial sector and real economy,’ he said.”
“When the year ends and news organizations compile their top 10 stories of the year, the ‘economic crisis’ undoubtedly will be at or near the top of every respectable list. (I use ‘economic crisis” in quotes because I think it’s a bit misleading, all considered. Perhaps “a crisis of government intervention into the economy’ should be used instead.)”
“To be certain, there have been some negative economic realities that cannot be overlooked. But highlighting only the negative outcomes of economic downturns belies the cyclical nature of the economy.”
“What about housing prices? Not long ago, complaints of the typical American family not being able to afford a house dominated the evening newscasts. As we are all aware, housing prices have receded in recent months, but there has been little celebration. No — it is those who are looking to sell their house that now get the headlines, forced to swallow lower gains or even losses on their transactions.”
“That news outlets search out pessimism is no new idea; but given the cyclical nature of the economy, today’s worries will likely be tomorrow’s reason for optimism. Just don’t expect to hear about it.”
Another great week! My thanks to those who support this blog. Please check back this weekend.
About a week ago, I sensed we had entered a new phase financially, and with Paulson saying:
“We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation with some of the problems that have taken place here.”
We are waste deep in big muddy, methinks.
alad,
Michelle Malkin described him this morning as a man who has lost his freaking MIND! As she trudges through the chronology of his conflicted statements it becomes real obvious, real fast that he has nothing coherent to contribute.
Michelle Malkin is ruthless, nasty, and without any sense of compassion. But I have to admit that she is honest and doesn’t tolerate liars or BS.
True, every word. I just thought it was interesting in that the MSM is pussy footin’ around on this issue and MM was the first reporter I’d seen that literally just threw their hands up in disgust.
You know, Hank, we’d love to follow you ( but you keep changing direction? )
“We have in many ways humiliated ourselves……”
I don’t recall anyone from the banking or financial community calling the house and asking for my input on how they did business.
So (as we used to say), What’s this WE sh#t????”
Maybe he has a mouse in his pocket?
Or, a gerbil up his……….
Gulfstreamfixer,
Nicely put. If you’re either a renter, stayed in your (1) primary residence ( that you can well afford ) and haven’t re-fi’d and taken cash out 6 times in the last seven years, you’re getting drug around by the boo-boo.
If someone starts looking for the gerbil, make sure they use a flashlight……:)
Like the next guy will be any better? or the next, and even the next guy after that? I admit Paulson’s is lame, but he just the first in a long line of lame a$$es to come, Obama or no Obama.
The monkeys will have rubbed the logo off the football by the time this is all over.
ex,
I ‘do’ hear ya’ and we’re all frustrated here. The reality is HP had too much invested in “the old guard”. There’s just no way for him to be able to distance himself from a lifetime of exposure to a system that frankly no longer exists.
Hence the frantic flailing.
Yep, and we just keep voting for more and more Gubmint , and less and less freedom. Of course that’s how great cycles work.
What about Hope? Change? Yes We Can?
Bummer.
At this rate, all the peeps will be happy if they “CAN” just “HOPE” to “CHANGE” the undies they just soiled.
Notice that Paulsen’s no.2 is also head shaved and from GS. Couldn’t answer the questions put to him by either Kucinich (lefty) or Isa (righty). Struggled for answers. We’re F’d by the community reinvestment act. Giving NINJA loans out. Barney Frank and Chris Dodd should be perp walked. Let the market work and people fail you dummies in both parties and prices will fall, and people will buy..
We can always rely on pc to recycle Rush Limbaugh sewage blaming it all on the ‘libruls’ and ‘minorities’.
The Community Reinvestment Act comprised about 1% of subprime. And it never compelled lenders to give out loans on suicide terms to minorities, only on the same terms as to the general population of borrowers.
Fannie and Freddie were about 15% of the problem. Contributors to it, but not essential.
The vast majority of the credit market crisis was investment banks with abysmal risk management chasing commissions and pumping up short-term profits to goose their bonuses, taking insane risks with insane amounts of leverage trading hideously huge volumes of CDOs and swaps that the Fed had the authority to regulate but refused to do so under Greenspin’s ‘market solves all’ ideology, aided and ebetted by the equally feckless and corrupt rating agencies that stamped their bundled garbage with high credit ratings.
Now the ‘free market’ buccaneers, having pocketed all the profits from their insanely risky activities, are the world’s biggest welfare queens socializing their losses on our dime.
1% - If 1% of the apple barrel has rotten apples, eventually 100% of the apple barrel will have rotten apples. Community reinvestment act is just the socialists way to force integration of the people who could not honestly afford it into neighborhoods of responsible quiet taxpayers who could not only could afford it but earned their way there.
This is just part of of the plan on socialists destroying every institution of America. To have your own house - paid for - and to be able to live among people of your kind, was here and is now gone.
What sane person would want the job? (This also somewhat applies to President, but I digress.)
Seriously, if you had enough intelligence, expertise, and foresight to see the crash coming (HBB self pat on the back) would you want to be Treasurer or head of the Fed?
At this point, I’m pretty well assuming that anyone actually wanting either of those jobs in the next decade or so is a moron, on a power trip, or both. Hopefully their underlings have their head on straight.
Vermontergal,
Old fashioned Yankee common-sense there!
I see your point, likely it will be akin to Harvey Pitt’s tenure at the SEC. Violent and swift. Whomever it is will only be interim to be sure.
Then as the proverbial sacrificial lamb, they’ll be unceremoniously kicked to the curb. Kind of like bringing in “the fridge” on those short yardage situations?
Sheila saw the crash coming. Sheila wants the job. But Sheila’s solution is to Keep People In Their Homes. She is not at all interested in letting us renters buy.
She is not at all interested in letting us renters buy.
Ah, she would fall into the “Power Trip” category then…;)
Sheila’s a twat.
Shiela’s twat is a total twat!
Michelle Malkin is a babe! I agree with a lot of what she writes. Because she is tough as nails and for the free market approach to solve economic problems. Too bad she’s married already.
I’m a bit sad today…realizing that we’re all doomed to be hamsters on the wheel, that we all got caught in a game where none of us knew the rules, none of us stood to win, but we all stood to lose. The deck was stacked, and the real criminals in this mess (a la OJ) will get away either completely exonerated or without ever being indicted.
It’s quite clear. We are in this mess because of a crisis not of credit, but of credibility. Put that in your pipe and smoke it…
That’s why I started a Website called My Million Dollar Scam . Our entire Government and Financial System is one Big Rigged Game, where They make they Rules as they Go, but We never get a Copy, and it wouldn’t matter anyway, as the Rules are different for everyone, and can change at anytime.
Yes, It’s a Strange Game. Can You Win? Not if You don’t understand the Game.
“but We never get a Copy”
That is NOT true! Not at all ( it’s just that by the time it filters down to ‘us’ there’s little if any point in -having- one? )
And, like OJ, the guilty parties will dedicate themselves in a search to find the “real criminals”.
In Las Vegas, or at the nearest country club golf course….
NoSingleOne …I am feeling your emotion and thoughts also
today . Those Hedge Fund Guys yesterday really did it to me .I have always hated stacked decks ,especially when our wonderful Government, who is suppose to promote the General welfare of the public ,promoted and is still protecting the welfare of the
chosen few .
Back in the days of the 1929 stock market crash ,many a rich guy and investment firm did in fact go down the tubes (as it should of been ). It still didn’t stop the pain that was coming for the
United States people ,but at least the promoters of the stock market run-up got their due in most cases . Joseph Kennedy was one of the guys that got out right before the crash .I have never believed that you can always get Justice in a unfair World,
but sometimes Justice is necessary in order to keep it from happening again, or to really have some damage control . Witness the repeated gaming of the systems in all these bail outs and meltdowns . Just a little venting for the day .
HW,
Thought there… was ’some’ validity to Dennis Kozlowski’s comments ( from prison ) yesterday. Basically what he did was “peanuts” compared to the level of thievery we are seeing today?
True Dennis, it probably ‘is’ peanuts, but it doesn’t make you any less a crook. I hope he has lots of new friends real soon.
What, are you crazy?!! Obama is in the house! We will all be saved! Just wait until January, you’ll see. (my immitation of the idiot majority)
America….Land of the Free….No, Land of the Free Scam. Scam to your heart’s content and walk away free. I don’t want to be hearing the dumbf*cks on wall street ever talk about free markets again. In a controlled market buying stocks is a scam..but then again..wall street is a scam.
Not that we haven’t had plenty of reasons to believe what is self-evident, but yesterday I did have one of those apple-bonking Newtonesque ah ha moments that nobody, nobody, knows the hell what’s going on. at all. From Greenspan, who was shocked, shocked that companies wouldn’t heed prudence for the long-term sustainability their companies, to Paulson/Bernake who are just throwing crisp new dollars against the wall, nobody has a clue, what to do. I think its time for some peyote, cuz we need a vision.
I was talking with a friend today about who will be the next treasury secretary. I told him to be very afraid of anyone that says they know what to do and here’s their plan of action.
There is no way to “fix” these problems - the only thing that can happen is a lot of pain, and hopefully, some lessons learned about how to run our lives, businesses and governments (at least from a fiancial point of view).
The last depression was a terrible thing, but I do think that lessons were learned….and subsequently lost over the last several generations….
And he listened to you because…?
And he’s not bamboozling you because…?
Gimme a break! Assuming we believed you, we’d still have trouble believing this garbage.
RE Paulson: “We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation with some of the problems that have taken place here.”
He’d better watch it or he will inadvertantly accelerate the Chinese’s loss of confidence in our system, then things will REALLY get messy.
He was overheard saying that ‘after spending billions and billions on the bailout…….pretty soon you’re talking about real……..forgot what I was going to say..oh well’
“We are waste deep in big muddy”
And the big fool says to push on!
He doesn’t even hand out salt tablets and water and says “Push On”
Forward, the Light Brigade!”
Was there a man dismay’d?
Not tho’ the soldier knew
Someone had blunder’d:
Their’s not to make reply,
Their’s not to reason why,
Their’s but to do and die:
Into the valley of Death
Rode the six hundred
“‘We’re getting killed by foreclosures,’ said the Atlanta broker. ‘The buyers think they’re going to steal a house for half price.’”
I’m thinking its more like: ” The sellers think they can still screw the buyer for full- bubble price”. Half price sounds perfectly reasonable to me.
‘I’ve been very blunt and I tell them the truth about the appraised value of their home,’ said Caroline Chapman, a Realtor with Space Coast Realty Co. ‘You have to show them what’s happening in the market and if they can’t handle the price they’ll just have to take it off the market.’”
How is it possible that there are still so many deaf,dumb,blind & stupid people left, that would have to be ’shown’ what’s going on the the market place. This suckers going down!
Anyone else notice how every REALTWHORE is now calling bottom due to increase in sales volume, however 1-2 years ago when volume starting dropping as prices kept rising volumes convienently didn’t matter, only price did?
In this case, the RE floozies could have some justice on their side. Volume DOES matter, and could presage a flattening of prices. But, volume improvements so far have been unconvincing, possibly just blips.
I think inventory matters. Volume, not so much.
Yup, whatever ethical enema that is now allowing banks to unload their REOs is creating a rising pool. Of sales. Yes. But the prices are watered down, as all would expect.
6.8% of houses in Augusta, GA in foreclosure. Holy Mackerel !!!
http://chronicle.augusta.com/stories/111108/met_482974.shtml
‘It is not that mortgage-backed securities are looking any less toxic but that other loan portfolios such as credit cards and auto loans are starting to look just as sick,” said Scott Anderson, senior economist with Wells Fargo & Co.”
———————————————————————–
Yeah, not a good time for credit card portfolios to “get sick” especially with XMas around the corner.
On the other hand, no one ever went broke underestimating the American consumer.
RE VEGAS: “Supply is being consumed in a market that really does have limited lot supply”
Do we have any HBB’ers in Vegas, is there really no more land left? Last time I was there which happened to be 3 months ago, I noted there were millions of acres of empty land in every direction.
Certainly my only Vegas friend, who bought 2nd house before selling 1st, has had no acceptable offers. Yawwwwn.
Sorry… The several million acres north of LV is called the nevada test site. So polluted from above ground nuclear bomb tests of the 50s and 60s that it is not available for housing. To the west of that is Yucca Mountain, future nuclear waste storage area, also not available. I miss the days when mushroom clouds could be viewed from Vegas hotel rooms with a northern exposure
Vegas is a wasteland. Don’t even bother with those people. When I lived there, I noticed that the natives all have really big toes. They’re being experimented on, they know they’re being experimented on, and THEY DON’T CARE.
seriously, big toes?
Sheesh Big V, what KIND of toe survey were you tokin…I’m mean taking ?
“The change in direction, Anderson added, ‘has shaken the confidence that our financing architects really know what they are doing.’”
Really? It’s never been a question in my mind.
“John Ritter, CEO of Focus Property Group, said everybody was making money in Las Vegas during the heyday. ‘I think everyone right now is confused,’ the developer said during a panel discussion.”
“‘The market went from bad to worse, from worse to horrible and from horrible to ‘Holy crap.’ We’re in a period right now where no one knows where value is going. The sense is it’s going to get worse before it gets better,’ he also said.”
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I liked him better in “Three’s Company”, to be honest.
The late actor gave us the gift of playing out absurd but comic misunderstandings. This guy just produced some stucco boxes in Henderson.
‘Holy crap’….I think he’s confused alright..he’s mixing Everybody loves Raymond into the mix.
or my favorite, “‘Everybody is taking a haircut,’ said Stephen Pace, a 30-year industry veteran and owner of Pace Development Group in Charlotte.
Not me sucka, I’m giving ‘em (2 at a time)
Even so, Stern said he was skeptical that the Fed could have foreseen the situation as it has played out, especially the carnage that the housing market collapse would create. ‘I certainly make no claim for having foreseen how the decline in housing prices would spill over so aggressively to the financial sector and real economy,’ he said.”
Another one that didn’t see ‘it’ coming, lame ass excuse, do everyone a favor, you and your buds please resign.
I don’t for one millisecond believe that Greenspan and all the other fedheads didn’t see this coming. Nope, not all. The economy went into the crapper back in 2003. The only thing that got us out was the massive real estate bubble. I know because I was unemployed back then & could only get temp (and that was hard) jobs. I worked alongside alot of managers, college grads,lawyers in the same boat. Scary, scary times. There were just too many people and too few jobs. Everything was shipped overseas, and with both men/women in the workforce plus the increase in population - I didn’t see a logical way out of it. Enter Real Estate!!! Presto - economic “recovery”. BS. I remember reading in the papers/media back then that the real estate boom was responsible for creating as much as 40% of job “growth”. Yet my logical brain couldn’t wrap itself around this boom in housing. Prices were soaring and everyone, EVERYONE was buying, buying buying. How??? Nobody’s income was soaring? People, common everyday, non-Trump people were “investing” in real estate. It was a frenzy that did not make sense. And I knew that it couldn’t last. And this was no real “recovery”. It was a disaster in the making. Yes, I could see that. I am not a genius although I do have a cookie cutter finance degree that I have never really used to any extent. I’m average. Yet, the head of our Federal Reserve System - Mr. Alan Greenspan did not see this coming? BS. And BS to all the other managers, regulators of our gov’t. Not sure what’s really going on now but it sure as hell wasn’t innocent ignorance.
“I don’t for one millisecond believe that Greenspan and all the other fedheads didn’t see this coming.”
Hey…that’s my conspiracy theory!
by pleading ignorance, AG is trying to ensure Andrea isn’t left with a mega law suit after he is six feet under.
2003? Funny how that works. In 2004, one plausible take on the election results was that the margin of victory for incumbents was the exurbs. People who finally got a share of the Ownership Society….
Agreed! How is it that a piker like me noticed the drastic price increases years ago and google’d up all the information necessary to see this coming, yet this top financial executive, a Fed leader no less, can claim ignorance?
If I was able to see this coming, in 2006, surfing the web in my boxers from the couch, then that bastard HAD to have seen it coming, and just didn’t have the cojones to blow the whistle.
The Fed presidents did all their voting in lockstep: only Richard Fisher in Dallas dissented in his voting, and only after it was too late. Sing it, Woodrow:
“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.” -Woodrow Wilson, after signing the Federal Reserve into existence
Welcome to Hotel Amerikan.
You can check out but you can never leave.
I don’t think we are that far into the game do you? Maybe 3rd inning NYC has still to collapse
——————
I expect the housing market to form a bottom next year because of further weakness in the job market. We’re in the fifth inning of a nine-inning game.’”
they don’t even have the game right. Innings? We are about 14 floors down watching the ground rush up, our ears are starting to get that whistle from acceleration, but we still have 56 floors left before splat. Thing is, maximum velocity does not happen for awhile longer…
SECOND GEARRRRRRR, THIRD GEARRRRRRR…
6th inning.
Next up: The American wealthy.
“Next up: The American wealthy.”
Which is going to be beautiful to watch the “affluent” when the tide goes out and we shout “you aren’t wearing any clothes.”
Translation: You weren’t really wealthy, you just pretended you were. You’re really a deadbeat, who borrowed your way to an illusion of prosperity.
As the Bible says, “The meek will inherit the earth.” I hope that eventually those who lived below their means and saved get to buy up the assets at pennies on the peak dollar and we transfer the “wealth” from the pretenders to the savers. I keep crossing my fingers.
Portland Homedebtor Saving Like Mad While Still Employed Working in OC while renting Sand to Sleep On
” ‘We’re in a period right now where no one knows where value is going.’ ”
Come on, John, this is Vegas RE we are talking about. You have just defaulted on at least two major developments. Tell the truth.
” ‘The sense is it’s going to get worse before it gets better,’ he also said.”
Getting closer.
” ‘Population growth is going to average 50,000 people a year through 2012, Perlman said, and that’s going to buoy the market for a while.’ ”
I love how the idea of population receding or staying the same in Nevada, Arizona, and a few other spots never enters in as a possibility in these projections. Sort of like the S & P calculators mentioned by the Liar’s
Poker guy.
Now they’re giving mortgages to babies? Criminal!
I believe some minors can get loans for houses in California. But they need to be veterans of active service.
You have to be 18 to join the military, yo.
“You have to be 18 to join the military…”
But ‘ya can’t drink.
Big:
I wish someone would share how to make posts appended with the snarky face so I could use it. I was trying to add a note of levity.
Btw, you are correct on the age of majority. Fwiw, it is also possible to enlist earlier if you have been declared an emancipated minor. Harder these days cuz of education requirements. (gentle snarky face inserted here).
RMS
That is unair, isn’t it?
You can get blown up defending us but can’t always buy a glass or bottle of Wild Turkey…
The tide is going out as far as the population goes in NV. I’m seeing it firsthand.
Hey! Wait a minute, as an Oregonian I’d love to have a place at Walker Lake! People think I’m kidding but “I” think Hawthorne rocks!
You know, it would be pretty bad to have your house foreclosed, but to have several tanked developments to your credit? Great oneupsmanship at parties, I guess.
Classic. Truly classic. I can picture it now at the Country Club with his sweater tied around his neck bragging about how he one-or two-upped all of his fellow investors.
He didn’t lose a house, he lost two housing developments, and still managed to maintain a bank account that would make the flippers drewl into their beers.
He is such a …………I don’t know. I think if you or Olygirl read this you could come up with a new term for developers that have to let their pet projects go into foreclosure, but still seem to feel that they are better than everyone else one the planet.
A little over a year ago when Bear Stearns started the ball rolling, I labeled it @ the time “The Funds of August”, a play on words from Barbara Tuchman’s masterpiece “The Guns of August”, about the entanglements that brought on World War 1.
The last wars of any consequence in America & Europe had been fought in the 1860’s and 1870’s, using weaponry that was a bit slow, but still deadly.
World War 1 brought about mechanized wholesale slaughter, methodical speeded-up killing.
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The Great Depression had been brought on by devious pencil-pushers and charlatans of every stripe, i’d imagine. They were somewhat limited in their abilities to deceive.
Economic World War 1 looks to coming at us right now, computerized wholesale slaughter, methodical speeded-up killing of wealth.
alad,
Right, just as the PC piped a direct feed of on-line gambling and smut to their living room ( “media room” if you’re an FB ) you could get the same ‘high’ from E-Loan and Lending Tree.
Those guys will email you all the doc’s you need to get that Liar Loan for your 3rd home. “Brought it up to me like room service” *
( Captain Willard in Apocalypse Now )
~ He was one of those(Wall Street) guys that had that weird light around him. You just knew he wasn’t going to get so much as a scratch here.~
Apologies TO Cpt. Willard and gang
So much for the rich being unaffected by the downturn. Yellowstone Club in Montana (which counts Bill Gates among its members) is in bankruptcy. I’ve got a write-up here.
Earlier this week USA Today said that it’s a great time to buy in Big Sky (where Yellowstone Club is at)! Brilliant!
Bantering Bear posted that a couple of days ago, but it was late in the day. Proof that the wealthy aren’t immune.
“When Pat Webb moved to Vancouver a year ago, she didn’t think twice about buying a condo in tony Kitsilano….Today time is all but up, as Ms. Webb is moving back to California.”
No offense Californians, but is this really surprising? I’d love to sit down with every Californian now crowding the NW and understand why they came here. I think Ms. Webb’s example is proof of why. Just a trendy dream.
If they can’t make a buncha money, back they go. Thanks. We are so much better with all this development. Ask Bend.
/rant off
I wonder what is going to happen to my friend’s sister-in-law who is working at a Whole Foods in Vancouver? God the jobs are going to get nasty. Why isn’t anyone predicting unemployment over 10%?
We already have a consumer led recession and that is starting to move into business investment too (Sun Microsystems doesn’t sell much to joe six pack/the plumber). This is huge. I’m not an economist, so I can’t do the numbers part of it, but it just doesn’t feel like this is going to be getting better in 6-9 months.
I’m not an economist, so I can’t do the numbers part of it, but it just doesn’t feel like this is going to be getting better in 6-9 months.
I know the feeling. We should have taken our medicine a few years ago. There’s no quick fixes here.
The earliest possible date for a bottom is late 2009/early 2010. Until at least then no one has the foggiest idea what the bank real estate assets are worth. But even then house prices could still be dropping due to job losses, so it might not be until 2011.
If she bought a year ago, she’s going to take a bath on the exchange rate back to USD even in the unlikely event of breaking even on the ($CDN) price.
I’ve never seen major economy exchange rates move the way they have in the last few months. The Australian dollar dropped from 97c in July to 60c in October.
Maybe she doesn’t like the weather and misses her family.
Good riddance. Another foul specuvestor out of Vancouver. Now if we could just hire a pest control company to smoke out the rest. This place needs a good fumigation. Out with the we’re different here masses. The roaches can stay.
“‘We’re getting killed by foreclosures,’ said the Atlanta broker. ‘The buyers think they’re going to steal a house for half price.’”
The audacity and stupidity of these piece of $hit, amateur, uneducated used car salesmen… If I heard this with my own ears I’d be inclined to ram his pin head through a wall.
Signed,
Pissed Off Bastard
Well done! Nice delivery, good timing, perfect volume of rage.
I agree and I’ll go a step further. It’s funny that he mentions 50% off. See, every time I approach a for sale sign to see what the sellers want for their precious little castles, I mentally propose the price I’d pay before I look at the flyer and not having seen the inside.
Invariably, no matter what neighborhood, size, or quality of castle, I’m 50% off. Is it a coincidence that prices here have doubled the past 5 years?
I think not. So, 50% off (at least) sounds exactly right to me.
OMG, another member of the “look at the flyer, then mark the price down by 50%” club. And here I thought I was the only one…
I’m #3! I do the same thing. Laugh out loud when I see the price and shake my head just in case the “owner” is watching from a window. I then return the flyer to the box and drive away….
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have friends!
BTW, check out the comment by evildoc at the end of that story. One of us, n’est pas?
“n’est-ce pas”
damn…thanks.
I mistakenly thought the RealTard community got clipped and trimmed to the point where the old time voice of reason would dominate the biz and we wouldn’t have to listen to RE always goes up bull$hit anymore. To our satisfaction, those few voices of reason have been heard loud and clear right here on this blog but it seems there are still a number of loser lightweight greenhorn “realtors” who need to get the swirly twirl…. the royal flush.
sleepless_near_seattle,
Absolutely beautiful post. Says it all for me, “their precious little castles”.
Their “retirement nest-egg/ATM/tax dodge/3rd income/’early’ retirement nest-egg/Real Estate Venture Capital Fund/college fund/elective surgery foundation”.
I will note though as you get closer to the bottom end the “50% Rule” isn’t nearly as effective as it is with more “stately” manors.
JUST… an observation.
True, but my point still stands (well at least for my situation, goals, desires
). My brain is set that fair market value is about half off peak prices, which means we should go back to 2000 or so pricing, ie - before the boom.
But I won’t stand in the way if we go back to 1994 or 1983, as suggested here.
sleepless,
Oh not that ‘haven’t’ seen 900 s/f, 2bd/1ba homes going for twice what they should! It’s just that there isn’t as much “moat room” for tower pricing?
Rapunzella, Rapunzella, let down your price!
Thanks.
Exeter:
The dude is whacked. Ignore his stupid asce. At 1/2 off, you’d be getting a normal price in nonrecessionary times. Just ignore him.
“‘We’re getting killed by foreclosures,’ said the Atlanta broker. ‘The buyers think they’re going to steal a house for half price.’
—————————————————————————-
How’s come this realtard don’t put his money where his mouth his? If he bought all the houses at full price there wouldn’t be any for us to steal at half-price.
Re: the quote below: They are either blatant liars or complete retards. Actually, I think they are probably a combination of both. Ray Charles could have seen this freight train going off the tracks. Gawd, I am so effing sick and tired of these lying sacks of excrement at the Fed and Treasury!!!! I say it is time for the guillotine to come back in fashion.
“‘If we had grasped the net of connections of large financial firms in, say, 2006 instead of 2008, we might have taken steps to figure out how we might contain the ability of this network to spread risk,’ he said.”
( In other words, more derivatives ) Great!
Don’t hold back. Tell us how you really feel.
Again, I feel that most of the people involved are economic terrorists, and should be treated as such.
Send them to our little resort in Cuba, that is where they belong until they are put to death in a public hanging. Much like that guy from Iraq. You know the one that has cost us a trillion dollars to look for his WMDs.
These A-holes have cost us as a nation even more, but are going to get to walk away scot free? Pisses me off.
“In Sacramento, Assembly Democrats are pushing a moratorium on banks and lenders that would keep them from filing default notices against homeowners for 120 days.”
Go ahaed and pass it, you dumb-asses, and lending will go from tight to non-existent. Well played!!
I am expecting the foreclosure moratorium to have a similar effect going forward on housing prices to that of the short sale ban on the stock market. In both cases, measures designed to reduce downward pressure on the prices have the unintended consequence of reducing purchase demand. In both cases, the expected result is that of lower equilibrium prices down the road after equilibrium adjustment finishes playing out.
and what responsible person is going to buy a house when the irresponsible are getting subsidized by the gubment. No way. No how. Ya know…there is a test one has to take before graduating from high school. That same test ought be given yearly to our pols. What a bunch of dumbsh*ts we have in DC.
Really! Who do these ‘tards have for advisors, anyway?
PS dont forget to tell them to not to pay the mortgage but pay off your credit cards and student loans first then put the rest into a BK protected IRA….that should make things worse.
‘In August of this year, we had 101,000 foreclosure filings, the most of any state…That’s one filing about every thirty seconds.’”
With their new law, they will reduce the foreclosure filings to one every 21 seconds. Gezz…why didn’t I think of that! Guess that’s why theses really smart guys are in office and I’m not.
That would be more filings per second.
I used a very complex formula to project the foreclosure speed, after this temporary guberment delay, on my casio. Got it from a Lehman dumpster.
yes, I think that is exactly what happened when they did this with the farms during the GD.
‘(I use ‘economic crisis” in quotes because I think it’s a bit misleading, all considered. Perhaps “a crisis of government intervention into the economy’ should be used instead.)’
My candidate for the 2008 comment of the year.
Uh-uh, no way. I nominate Rep. Kucinich’s reply to Kashkari as the comment of the year:
Treasury Assistant Secretary Neel Kashkari: “I don’t think it’s a good use of taxpayer money to put taxpayer capital into a financial institution that is going to fail.”
Rep. Dennis Kucinich: “That statement that you just made you will hear about for the rest of your career.”
You can’t lump all gov’t intervention into one big box. Despite what Reagan said, if done correctly and in a limited manner, government intervention can do some good.
When it comes to onerous regulations and bailouts of weak sisters/robber barons, I completely agree that we are headed down the wrong path.
When it comes to enforcement of existing transparency rules for the sake of the stockholders, fraudulent lending/borrowing, and oversight of investment banks in the shadow system then I disagree. The current administration completely gutted enforcement of the Ponzi system by depleting trained manpower in government. This is not a legitimate form of “deregulation”
I know Ron Paul disagrees with me on this (and by extension many people on this blog), but as I age I become less enamored of ideology and more interested in people who can think outside the box and whose hubris remains in check enough to stick to tried and true measures (such as the Glass Steagall Act).
NoSingleOne ……Great post .
To expand on what your saying ,I can’t believe that the Powers and
regulators let the money supply get so huge to the point that the Casino was dreaming up ways of putting it out in bogus investments .
Isn’t there some duty upon Regulators/Government to control
bogus money supply ,that ended up going to faulty lending and houses we didn’t need ? In theory ,you could have other countries
place billions into the investment pot ,than it would end up on the street and end up making any market unstable ,or become a bubble .
The Wall Street Casino wants to do anything they want ,in spite of
the destructive result ,and Governments job is to not allow that ,as a public good .Just as Government discovered that they had to break up the monopoly ,Government has to control the money supply or the Big Casino will create any bubble it can contrive .
What is it with scammy “700 Clubs”?
“The change in strategy for the spending of $700 billion in federal stimulus funds, economists said, shows the credit crunch has spread beyond housing and the mortgage industry to other economic sectors that need help. ‘It is not that mortgage-backed securities are looking any less toxic but that other loan portfolios such as credit cards and auto loans are starting to look just as sick,” said Scott Anderson, senior economist with Wells Fargo & Co.”
They’ve given up on houses. They’re just trying to save Christmas now.
Christmas is finished !
Govenor Palin mistook all of Santa’s little reindeer for MOOSE and shot them…every one
The statue of Liberty is kaput!
-Dagwood Dusseldorf
“Even so, Stern said he was skeptical that the Fed could have foreseen the situation as it has played out, especially the carnage that the housing market collapse would create. ‘I certainly make no claim for having foreseen how the decline in housing prices would spill over so aggressively to the financial sector and real economy,’ he said.”
How could all those PhD-trained economists have missed it? Maybe they ought to try more blogging and less publishing next time.
Professor Bear,
There ‘is’ an element of truth to that. Nothing happens in a vacuum and if you’re looking to have your ego stroked while being endlessly flattered by mindless “yes-men”… then no, bubble blogging probably isn’t for you?
Blogs are like classrooms, really.
‘Things haven’t changed much on borrower-occupied residences. I assume that will change when the economy continues to slide and people lose their jobs.’
Good for the press to improve the accuracy of their reporting:
ownerborrower occupied“What about housing prices? Not long ago, complaints of the typical American family not being able to afford a house dominated the evening newscasts. As we are all aware, housing prices have receded in recent months, but there has been little celebration. No — it is those who are looking to sell their house that now get the headlines, forced to swallow lower gains or even losses on their transactions.”
I would guess that most folks who are celebrating are also trying to keep their mouths shut about it when speaking with home owners.
Watching the government lurch around from stupid plan to useless plan to outright dangerous plan is getting old. I feel like I’m watching someone who can’t think more than one more move ahead trying to play chess. Absolutely no ability to think about the ramifications of that action or how the opponent might respond - much less what would happen three or four moves down the line. I’m very angry today, not the least at the members of congress who ignored their constituents, patted us on the head, and assured us that they know what is best and never mind that most people didn’t want our tax money wasted on an ineffectual bailout that won’t stop a recession, won’t save the stock market and certainly won’t “prop-up” house prices at unsustainable values.
That’s the thing that makes me mad about all this. Congress was like “We are going to ignore you all because we think you’re stupid, and we know more than you do”.
Oh yeah? I thought then and I know now that none of them ever knew what they were doing or what they were going to do next, EVER!
Kinda scary when you consider that these Politicians make laws and
tax us and they even are charged the responsibility to make decisions on defending us if we are ever attacked . The trick is to never give them a Bill that is over 5 pages because they don’t seem to read it .
Paulson was right on when he gave them a 3 page Bill for 700 big ones . I got sick of hearing how they wanted to go home for the weekend . We were suppose to be in the middle of a National emergency (according to Paulsons hype ),yet they voted on some poorly constructed Bill that wasn’t even adopted by Paulson and he changed his plan in short order . These are all confidence builders
about the Politicians ability to ………..be objective ……NOT .
Why don’t they just take the greatest objective minds ,put them in a room with a bunch of data and computers and see what they come up with ? Ask them to come up with the most cost effective way of solving the economic crisis ,with full considerations of any future price that would be paid . One condition would be that any solutions could not create moral hazard and laws would need to be obeyed . Instead, we have the conflict of interest Hank Paulson coming up with some hair-brain plan of buying bad assets ,saying that the taxpayers were going to make money off of it .
Don’t get me going on the Congressional Hearings where they call in the parties that were part of the problem and ask their opinion
on what they should do about the Wall Street Casino bets meltdown .It was like when they called in Mozillo (CEO of Countrywide ) and asked him his opinions on the lending world and CEO compensation . Come on ,lets not act like the culprits should be the Experts in Congressional hearings .
“‘When the FDIC took over IndyMac, the FDIC owned those mortgages. That’s why they could write down those mortgages,’ he said. ‘But in Fannie and Freddie’s case…they don’t own the mortgages anymore.’”
Does the FDIC have to report the cram down tab to tax payers?
‘There is no evidence we are close to a bottom in the housing market. I expect the housing market to form a bottom next year because of further weakness in the job market. We’re in the fifth inning of a nine-inning game.’
The game started back in 2005 or so. Unless the last few innings go much more quickly than the first five, it could easily last until 2012, and even longer if the game goes into extra innings.
WTF? How could increasing job weakeness possibly lead to a firming in RE prices? Who the h*ll writes this stuff?
If I had a dime for every “hope” that is pinned on the spring and summer of 2009……
Possibly what was meant was that the bottom could not occur UNTIL next year, because the job market is now weakening. I agree with you though that there is no particular reason to expect a bottom in 2009. I agree with PB that 2012 is the earliest reasonable time for a bottom, since most of the resets of ARMs written in the peak sale period will by then have happened. Or it could be any time later than 2012.
“I expect the housing market to form a bottom next year because of further weakness in the job market.”
It is a confusing/misleading quote to be sure.
I think the last innings will go faster due to the acceleration effect that Ben has mentioned. It took the subprime problem to get banks to start tightening up, which then prevented Alt-As from refinancing, which put them underwater, which will make A LOT of people walk away, which will make it impossible to get a loan once it really starts hitting the primers.
“A LOT of people walk away, which will make it impossible to get a loan once it really starts hitting the primers.”
And falling prices of $500K+ range homes owned by primers will suffocate the prices of all lower quality homes like a blanket of ash descending from Mt Vesuvius onto the village of Pompeii.
The good news…realtywhores claim they can see the bottom of the housing prices now.
The bad news… they have no clear understanding of the term ABYSS.
“‘Half the properties were vacant,’ Mr. Lockhart said. ‘A lot of those were investor properties.’”
Ahem…
“In Sacramento, Assembly Democrats are pushing a moratorium on banks and lenders that would keep them from filing default notices against homeowners for 120 days. Assemblyman Ted Lieu, D-Torrance, outlined how bad the crisis has gotten for California. ‘In August of this year, we had 101,000 foreclosure filings, the most of any state…That’s one filing about every thirty seconds.’”
I think we need to make politicians take economics classes before they can take office. They don’t seem to understand that implementing a moratorium on foreclosures is just going to prolong the inevitable. They really need to study the concepts of equilibrium and external forces to fully comprehend what their proposed moratorium is going to do.
Let the foreclosure mess play itself out so that the recovery process can start and those of use who didn’t bury ourselves in debt during the height of the housing bubble can buy a house in a more stable market.
Just let a homeowner skip a property tax payment, though, and these benevolent turds turn nasty.
Prolonging the agony has a value for lenders, in that most mortgages go amortizing so long as people go on paying, and most people go on paying if they’re not far underwater. My personal desire that prices in my little lending niche (desert MH+lot) should decrease very, very slowly is in no way at odds with my desire that prices in my likely buying stratum (oceanview small SFH) should decrease much faster than they are doing!
‘We’ve been inundated (with requests for counseling). It is just nonstop,’ said Teri Duffy, executive director of the nonprofit Community Housing Resource Center.”
sure, they don’t want free cht, just a chat
“There were nearly 41,500 vacant, developed lots on the Charlotte market at the end of September. That represents more than three years of supply – the highest number and length of supply ever recorded in the area.”
A three year supply based on what numbers? 1998 or 2004-2006?
I think “x years supply” is calculated using current sales rates.
” we might have taken steps to figure out how we might contain the ability of this network to spread risk,’ he said.”
What risk if you adhered to the old tried and true standards. Why in the hell should I expect that you should spread any risk in my direction?
“‘The market went from bad to worse, from worse to horrible and from horrible to ‘Holy crap.’ We’re in a period right now where no one knows where value is going. The sense is it’s going to get worse before it gets better,’ he also said.”
What is worse than the “Holy Crap !” Phase ?
GAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH ! *gurgle*
Maui Owie
“‘It comes at a time when the foreclosure rate (on Maui) is going up rapidly,’ said John Andersen, executive director of Na Hale O Maui. ‘Maui’s foreclosures are increasing faster than the state as a whole. We’re running about two years behind the Mainland in this cycle. … We’re just beginning to see a wave of foreclosures.’”
This would also be true of coastal Maine. I believe I have heard the whistle of the foreclosure train there, but haven’t actually seen the train yet. The symptom is, “nothing” is selling.
“The symptom is”
Same deal for the longest time here in OR.
Here’s yet another… thing I had wrong about the bubble.
Wouldn’t you have thought with their isolation and one-hit-wonder economy HI would have been the 1st market to feel the pinch? Yet it seems with Equity Locusts that dreams die hard?
Yeah, and considering FL is the poor man’s HI - it is kinda weird.
What I am waiting for is when the chain reaction takes down the equity locust’s home bases - places like my dear Chicago or NYC or other “old money” hang outs.
Perhaps we should change the term Equity Locusts to Equity Roaches as these nasty little insects are very hardy.
Heaven forbide but if we ever have a nuclear war or accident, as I fear the only survivors would be realtywhores and Equity Roaches scurrying around in the rubble trying to sell each other Roach Condos
Question:
The general consensus used to be that the house market would be back to “normal” when prices corrected to 1998-99 prices + inflation.
With the economy going totally to hell, I’m starting to think this formula might be better:
1998 prices X (% drop in housing value between 1929-1936) + inflation between 1999-2008 = ?????
Any references for the drop in property values between 1929 and 1936?
Yeah, it was like 90%. 1998 was before the boom, wheareas 1929 was after the Depression. I think you would have to start with 2005 or 2006.
I know the stock market dropped 89% between 1929 and 1934 . It went from just over 400 points to about 41 . It also took until the early 50’s to recover . Course you got to throw in World War 2 in there that might of delayed the recovery . I have read conflicting reports on how much real estate dropped in value during that time . In Florida in 1926 the real estate crash was brutal ,but that seemed to be localized .
During the Great Depression there was so little money around that there wasn’t even buyers for property and I think that is why the government did rent-backs in order to just freeze everything and just get income flow . I don’t know if you can count markets that are not really markets because of a “Black Swan” event .
After a over correction takes place because of to many foreclosures
and not enough demand or funds ,no telling where real estate will
go down to ,or stabilize at . If the government interferes ,and their objective is to prop up prices ,than no telling how that will affect price discovery in a market .
In other words ,if a Black Swan event is involved ,I don’t know that fair price can be determined . With current government intervention ,it also becomes hard to predict a bottom . I’m seeing 60 to 70 % off in the case of some foreclosures ,and you couldn’t even come close to building the house at that price if you went to duplicate it .
Another one for the experts:
What would the economy look like since 1990 if you took away all the funny money generated by the housing and tech bubbles, and the leverage that the Wall Street guys pulled out of their a##???
Wherever that’s at, I think that’s where we are going.
“How far will one engine take us????” “All the way to the scene of the crash…….which is pretty handy, because that’s where we’re heading…..”
For those “they are not making any more land” crowd.
Geography 101
1) What percentage landwise of Southern California is a god-forsaken, uninhabitable, barren, hotter than h%!!, desolate wasteland?
Answer - about 70%
2) What percentage landwise of Northern California is unaccessible and largely uninhabited?
Answer: Around 70%
3) What about most other states (minus the northeast seaboard states) fit a similiar description?
Answer: Probably at least 70% or higher.
Geography 101
1) What percentage landwise of Southern California is a god-forsaken, uninhabitable, barren, hotter than h%!!, desolate wasteland?
Answer - about 70%
1) What percentage landwise of Texas is a god-forsaken, uninhabitable, barren, hotter than h%!!, desolate wasteland?
Answer - about 100%
“We’re in the fifth inning of a nine-inning game.’”
I really think this is only the third inning of the game. The job loses are just getting started. Its all turning into a negative feedback loop that is unstoppable. 10 trillion dollars has disappeared so far in american’s 401Ks, pensions and phony home equity.
Double header not nine inning.
“I really think this is only the third inning of the game.”
I give the most credence to the Case-Schiller futures. Unfortunately, they only cover 10 markets, and more unfortunately, they cover Vegas but not Seattle/Portland. However, these are based on people putting their money where their mouth is. Talk is cheap, and troughs are basically from 2010-2012 for the 10 market areas they cover. And of course, they are subject to change as time goes on. But that’s what I consider the best source of info to base purchase decisions on, excluding decisions made on personal decisions (i.e. need for stable place to put your things as moving is a pain in the ass, pets, kids, interior decorating, landscaping, etc.). I would like to purchase a third property, but no way I would before 2013+ regardless of price. I’d rather save more $ and purchase 2 more properties later once we cross the ninth/extra innings. And that will be when the NOD’s have peaked at least 24+ months in the past, and REOs have peaked 12+ months ago.
PortlandHomedebtor/OCsandrenter
Recommended Reading Material
http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom?print=true
Thanks for the link ! Great article - I want to read “Liar’s Poker” now.
The Connecticut article where CT leads the nations foreclosure rate for October should be screaming out to everyone and anyone in the Northeast. It was just 18 months ago that CA had the lead and look what happened…. It spread like uncontrolled cracks north to Vancouver, west to HI and east into Nevada/AZ. In case you folks east of the Mississippi weren’t paying attention, the pacific coast is imploding as I write this. My sister in law is a Bend, Oregon resident and I talked to her last night. Businesses in Deschutes county are shutting down one after another, her husband got laid off last week and she said she’ll be canned in the next two weeks………… West coasties….. It’s over folks. Kaput.
If the cratering California and it’s tentacles is a model for what is to occur elsewhere, the northeast is in for an ugly ride.
House prices need to drop and drop way down. Its volume now that we’re talking about. Making a profit it out of the game, just trying to get some money for your house is the goal. Halfing the house prices is coming up quick, buyers are smart enough to wait.
I have seen house on the market for almost a year and the price is the same, well, all I can say is if you don’t drop the price, the house will still be on the market next year. Buyers have wised up and they’re waiting unti they get the right price and it will happen as soon as sellers get desperate, that’s the way it’s going to work.
The house market will continue in it’s downhill spiral for at least another year or longer. Sellers need to let go of their dream of “making money” from their houses…they just need to sell period.