This Bumpy And Painful Journey To The New Normal
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Miles Brannan and his wife are feeling the crunch just like everybody else. The Brannans are both South Florida realtors, and when their income dipped with the economy they put their $3 million Fort Lauderdale waterfront house on the market, only to watch it sit there idling. This year they’d had to sell the boat they parked at their 100-foot dock, and when the house failed to move, Brannan came up with the idea of offering it by lottery. The Brannans have already sold 75,000 tickets for $10 a piece on the website they set up, and they plan to keep the lottery going until they sell 300,000 — or until December 25th, whichever comes first.”
“‘Actually we just looked on Zillow and the value of the house is going up, I think it was $3.2 million last time we checked,’ Brannan said.”
“When Douglas and Sonia Bendt purchased their $1.6 million condo in a Biltmore Estates luxury development in 2007, they were ecstatic. But as the Bendts received financial updates on the status of the HOA fund from the community’s management company, they began to voice concerns about what appeared to be a shortage of money in the reserve fund.”
“‘(The developers) haven’t been fiscally sound and straightforward,’ said Bendt of the shortage. ‘They don’t deny it; they just don’t think there’s anything wrong with it.’”
“A Hood River-based private equity fund that recently purchased The Shire development in Bend, announced Tuesday its purchase of another bank-owned subdivision, the 45-lot Tuscany Pines project in northwest Bend. The firm paid $2.75 million for the Italian-themed development. Bella Terra purchased the development’s property in April 2007 for $11.4 million, according to The Bulletin’s archives.”
“Scott Wicklund, a commercial real estate broker in Bend, said investors are ‘testing the waters.’ ‘People are starting to sense it’s near the bottom, that these opportunities are pretty good right now,’ Wicklund said. ‘We’re at a point where I don’t know how much lower it can get.’”
“It’s the height of Utah’s construction season, but the only work being done on the former Cottonwood Mall site is removal of massive thistles and weeds along a nearby creek. And that situation is not likely to change anytime soon, General Growth Properties spokesman Kris Longson told the Holladay City Council on Thursday.”
“Plans call for the 57-acre lot to become a bustling village with everything from high-end condominiums to boutique stores and offices. Councilman Barry Topham voiced concern over giving the mall company free rein. ‘I’d like to have a gun to the head of (General Growth Properties) so they do something with it,’ Topham said. ‘I would not like to see the weeds growing for the next 10 years.’”
“Banco BuenaVentura, an Oxnard bank in its first year of operation, has been sued for not paying rent and the two buildings it leases are now up for sale. The bank started with a mission to serve the community, differentiating itself with a bilingual staff and products aimed at Spanish-speaking customers. The bank intended to serve recent immigrants and the ‘unbankable’ — those who traditionally could not open bank accounts — among its clientele. The bank is still not making a good profit and most of its loans are real estate, which is hurt by the housing market.”
“Diana Rios-Sherwood, chief financial officer and acting president of Banco BuenaVentura, said the bank was not for sale, just the buildings in which it operates. ‘We are, you know, trying to be successful in these times of difficult economic conditions,’ she said. ‘I think we’re doing well.’”
“With more than $300,000 in combined annual income, tens of thousands of dollars in the bank and credit scores that top 800, Jennifer France and her partner would seem like ideal candidates for a mortgage refinance. But when they applied to swap an interest-only loan on their nearly $1 million San Carlos home for a 30-year fixed that locked in today’s low rates, they were summarily denied. The refinancing would have saved them nearly $2,000 in monthly payments and allowed them to begin paying the principal on the mortgage. They were ultimately able to modify their loan through one of the federal stimulus programs, but it lowered their payment by only about $1,500 and the loan remains an interest-only mortgage.”
“‘I was really surprised, I had been preparing to refinance for years,’ said France.”
“Is it time to pull the plug on some of these wonderful sounding, and frankly pathetically ineffective, mortgage rescue efforts? Arecent Fed study, detailed in the Globe, raises some serious questions about whether the Obama effort and the myriad of other programs like it stand much chance of even putting a dent in sky-high foreclosure rates.”
“After tracking hundreds of thousands of loans over a two year period, it found that only 3 percent of ’seriously delinquent’ homeowners were able to lower their montly payments through loan modifications. And nearly half of borrowers who received some sort of help – 45 percent – ended up in trouble again down the line.”
“Did all the economists inside and outside the government get their diplomas off the Internet or from the back of a comic book? Friday’s newspapers were filled with stories about how surprised everyone was about the country’s latest unemployment numbers. And the smart economists didn’t see this coming? Huge jumps in housing prices, no consumer saving, consumer debt constantly rising. But no one thought that was a problem.”
“If we continue to rely on the people who got us here, we better expect to simply get more of what we’ve already gotten: trouble.”
“Not too long ago, life was good for Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer. A condo building boom was under way downtown, and property taxes were pouring in. But those days seem like a distant memory. Downtown condos are empty. And property taxes are down.”
“Dyer said the national recession is something that couldn’t be predicted. But Doug Head, former chairman of the Orange County Democrats, says he should have foreseen possible trouble, particularly with the complex venues plan. ‘In retrospect, the party-poopers were right,’ Head said.”
“The U.S. traditionally hasn’t had to deal with long-term joblessness. During the last 30 years, Americans who were thrown out of work took an average 15.8 weeks to find new positions. In June, the average duration of unemployment was 24.5 weeks, the longest since records began in 1948. ‘The United States right now is in transition,said Mohamed El-Erian, CEO at Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s largest bond fund. ‘It’s on this bumpy and painful journey to what we’ve called here the new normal.’”
“Long-term joblessness is also a ‘profound problem’ for housing, said Paul Willen, senior economist at the Boston Fed. ‘If a person becomes unemployed, they’re going to start missing mortgage payments,’ he said.”
“Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com…said the U.S. hasn’t thought through how to attack the problem of long-term joblessness. ‘We as a nation have not intellectually addressed this,’ said Zandi. ‘We don’t have a policy answer for it. And I’m pessimistic we’ll get one.’”
“It’s pouring rain outside, but in a green room at the ‘Today’ show’s Rockefeller Center studios, the sun is shining in the form of Barbara Corcoran. Almost every Friday, the pixieish real estate queen with the short blonde hair comes here in her shiny, fluorescent suits and delivers her ebullient shtick about what a great time it is to buy a home, recession be damned.”
“When the market was ascendant, Corcoran used booming housing prices as evidence that there was no better purchase than a home. Now the market has tanked and she’s still advising people to buy. The current argument: Don’t miss out on the deal of a lifetime. Like a Jim Cramer of real estate, it’s go, go, go all the time.”
“In 2007, after the bubble began to burst, Matt Lauer said to Corcoran on ‘Today,’ ‘We’re talking about the worst housing market in generations, or a generation. What happened?’ She replied, ‘I think the worst is behind us. You should know that, right now, prices are at their lowest point, in my belief.’”
“What sort of evidence was Corcoran relying on when she went on the air two years ago and made these prognostications? ‘Wishful thinking,’ she says now. ‘Obviously, I was dead wrong. Do I regret it? No. Fortunately not everyone is as diligent as you to go and look it up.’”
“It was one thing to hype the New York real estate market in an effort to get a little more money out of hedge fund managers and Russian oligarchs. It’s another when she’s showing houses on the most watched morning show in America, a program where the average viewer is middle class and likely assumes that because Corcoran no longer has a financial stake in her company, she (and ‘Today’) have their best interests at heart. ‘I still believe buying a home is the best investment you can make,’ Corcoran says.”
“Not all homes going into foreclosure in the Valley belong to people who can’t afford their mortgage payments. In fact, many of them involve people who can make their payments but whose home loan is now far more than their property’s value. ‘They might owe $250,000 and the current value of the home is $150,000,’ said Valley realtor Russell Shaw.”
“Shaw said he gets between 10 and 25 calls a day from people who want to know when housing values are coming back and when their homes will be worth what they paid for them. The answer, Shaw said, is ‘maybe not in their lifetime.’”
“Prices have fallen dramatically from where they were at the market’s peak a couple of years ago. Steve Lyons, of Century 21 Harris & Taylor, points out that there are newer homes off Hanby Lane in Cave Junction that were once offered at around $240,000. The banks are now selling some of those for as little as $137,000, he said.”
“At Oregon Mountain Real Estate in Cave Junction, Bill Reid said that the start of summer has brought some tourists to the area, along with graduates of area schools back in town for reunions. ‘I have seen an increase in activity,’ Reid said. ‘That doesn’t translate to sold houses, but I’m working on it.’”
“Southwestern Oregon’s real estate market also depends largely on what happens in California, Reid said. Reid said that he remains cautiously optimistic about the real estate industry’s immediate and long-term prospects. ‘Buyers are venturing back in to the market,’ Reid said. ‘Hopefully, the worst of the foreclosures are behind us, but who knows?’”
“But regardless of what happens, real estate agents will continue showing up to work and hoping for the best. ‘My phone does ring,’ said Reid. My fax machine does work, and there are people walking through the door. My lights are on, my rent is paid, I had lunch today, and I will have dinner tonight.”
“There, on the well-worn cards that Westmoreland County assessors use every day, are the inconsistencies. The cards…tell the story of 193,000 parcels of land and buildings in the county, where there has been no full-scale reassessment since 1972. More than half of the properties sold last year in the county were assessed at values 20 percent higher or lower than their sale prices.”
“‘Frankly, I’m surprised no one has filed a lawsuit,’ said Commissioner Tom Balya. ‘We know our assessments aren’t going to adequately reflect market value.’”
“Charles Pityk purchased a two-bedroom home on Orr Avenue in Allegheny Township last June. He paid $60,000, but the county set its worth at $81,200. After an appraisal, the county assessment and appeals board lowered the assessment by 20 percent. ‘I think these real estate assessments should be based on the purchase price of your house,’ Pityk said. ‘If you get a deal, maybe it’s for a reason.’”
‘Mark Zandi…said the U.S. hasn’t thought through how to attack the problem of long-term joblessness. ‘We as a nation have not intellectually addressed this,’ said Zandi. ‘We don’t have a policy answer for it.’
Well, buddy, maybe all this housing will lead us out of the recession stuff has been baloney. (Here’s a little tip for the wise guys at PIMCO; it’s a post bubble economy).
Anyhoo, I’m gonna be on the road a bunch in the next 10 or so days. We’ll have our guest blogger back this weekend, and I’ll hopefully have some help moderating too. My thanks to those who support this blog, and please check back this weekend.
“What sort of evidence was Corcoran relying on when she went on the air two years ago and made these prognostications? ‘Wishful thinking,’ she says now. ‘Obviously, I was dead wrong. Do I regret it? No. Fortunately not everyone is as diligent as you to go and look it up.’”
Zandi and Corcoran should be shipped to Guantanamo. They are the enemy combatants of decency and common sense. Some time on a water board would do them a world of good.
Add Cramer into the mix and you’ve got a winner!
Ok, so any thinking person sees that she has no credibility. By extension, since the Today show considers her an acceptable guest, they have no credibility. Don’t those people even realize that? Where are the adults?
Of course, that doesn’t really matter to me - I have far better things to do with my time than to watch TV, especially in the morning.
There are too many people/executives at NBC who “own” in NYC? And the parent (GE) has lent a lot in NYC?
You know, I tend to regret, severely, being dead wrong, especially when people are relying on my judgment. Not only does Corcoran not feel regret, she condescends on those willing to call her out on her mistakes, as if an endless supply of rich and ignorant clients was her birthright.
Yeah, and she seriously believes that no one will remember what she said. She thinks it takes diligence? She thinks someone will need to look it up? Yeah right. How many ppl decided to go ahead and buy an unaffordable house based on her opinion? Methinks they will remember.
‘I was wrong, and I cost you $100K+ of equity plus lost credit rating. But NOW I am right!’
Did I nail it?
Why can’t some of these people have an inkling of guilt over this? I even know realtors who were nice enough to sell someone an overpriced crapbox, and now are ‘nice’ enough to help them with a short sale!
I have been selling Real estate for over 25 in the Long Beach CA area. I did not represent buyers in over 4 years due to information I gathered from this blog and other sources. I can’t understand how clients hire the same agent who got them into an overpriced pos to represent them with a short sale. I would have no respect for their intergrity or opinion.
A house on Naples just closed for $850,000 it was listed for $1,700,000 3 years ago. I guess the BS artist that sells there could not talk someone into it.
Everyone want to live on Naples. It’s a deal!
Corcoran should go back to her old job - secretary. My apologies to real secretaries.
So far as I can tell, no housing bottom is in sight .
Foreclosure Rates Continue Rising and Housing Prices Continue Falling
NEW YORK, July 10 /PRNewswire/ — ForeclosureDataOnline dot com reports more dark days ahead for the housing market and for homeowners concerned about losing their homes. The data collected by the site shows that foreclosure levels continue to rise and are reaching record highs, particularly in states such as Michigan, California, and Florida.
The Mortgage Bankers Association released the National Delinquency Survey last week. The survey reported that the increase in foreclosure rates between quarters has reached its highest point since 1972 when the records were first kept. The increase in foreclosures on first time mortgages increased by 36% between the first quarter 2008 and first quarter 2009. Foreclosure rates have also increased in many major cities around the country, including Dallas (7.75%), Fort Worth (6.16%), Detroit (4%), and Cleveland (3%). Throughout the country, more than 600,000 mortgages have been affected by foreclosure actions.
…
Housing depends on one thing, and one thing only:
People to occupy those houses. That’s it.
You don’t have the people, you don’t have the bottom.
And if the people don’t come, you’ll have to demo the excess.
A cursory look at some bubbly areas shows something very remarkable.
Stagnant (or none) population growth.
And no one has acknowledged this.
“Housing depends on one thing, and one thing only:”
Really? Suppose the Fed or some other 800 lb financial gorilla decided to prop up the value of housing; would that change your story?
No.
Because at the end, for TRUE stabilization, you still need people to occupy those homes.
If you built 100 homes when only 50 were required, there is NOTHING that can be done for the financial reckoning that will eventually come.
PB:
You have too much faith in government. Their policy has been to prop up house prices for quite some time now. Hence the bubble, and now the crash. They are butting up against the limits of their power.
I have considerable faith in the inevitability of the attempt to prop up home prices, but I am nearly atheistic regarding the likely success.
The squirrels come home to roost. Well Hey!!…it IS different here in Wisconsin
Metro home sale prices off 11.8% at midyear
By Paul Gores of the Journal Sentinel
Posted: July 10, 2009 11:52 a.m.
The average sale price of homes in metro Milwaukee in the first half of this year was 11.8% lower than a year earlier, figures released Friday show.
The average price of homes sold by Realtors in Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha counties from January through June was $219,373, compared with $248,740 in the first half of 2008, according to a report by Metro MLS Inc.
The average sale price dropped in all four counties: Milwaukee County, to $129,413 from $177,097; Ozaukee, to $279,830 from $319,707; Washington, to $202,844 from $215,163; and Waukesha, to $265,406 from $282,993.
However, the report also said that home sales rose 3.6% in June compared with June of last year. It’s the first month this year in which the number of homes sold topped sales from the same month in 2008
http://tinyurl.com/lt2ajx
Mikey, sorry to hear Milwaukee Count is having problems, but it’s different in MADISON! To quote a local UHS, “Madison and Dane County are bullet proof.”
I recently looked at some townhomes in the area - I dislike townhomes, but there is one area in which I would buy (IF I were to buy, which I’m not). Developer bought the complex four years ago, 48 units for 5.5 million. After four years, only 56% of the units are sold. The top price paid was 176K.
The new price set by the developer - $130K.
Nope, no bubble.
I would love to have a look at Reserve fund.
Only change the story if the 800 pound gorilla is ready to live in the house and pay the upkeep. I don’t really see the government or the Fed ready to support empty houses on a sustained basis.
According to Obama a bottom is in clear sight.
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/slideshow/photo//090709/ids_photos_wl/r3356552547.jpg/
The French and US leaders appear to both clearly see a well-defined bottom.
Sarko is channeling Casablanca’s Louis Renault: “ah, now you’re learning to live like a Frenchman!”
Yeah, and?
All those who should have known better didn’t. What miracle has occurred to all of a sudden give them insight into current conditions?
I place no trust on what anyone in power states.
“I hate to see you go but I love to watch you leave.”
“When you’re gone, I’m miserable ……. It’s almost like having you here - “) “
Why would anyone except the super-rich buy a home now, given that prices are predicted to continue dropping through Q1 2011? Do people have any clue how much money they stand to lose if this prediction comes to pass? Given the option ARM reset problem, I am guessing this timing may prove optimistic.
U.S. Home Prices to Fall Through 2011’s First Quarter (Update1)
By Dan Levy
July 7 (Bloomberg) — Home prices may fall in more than half of the largest U.S. cities through the first quarter of 2011 as unemployment and foreclosures rise, mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc. said.
Thirty of the 50 biggest metropolitan areas have at least a 75 percent chance of lower prices through March 31, 2011, Walnut Creek, California-based PMI said in a report today. The decline is likely to spread to “all regions of the nation” from California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, the states most affected by the housing slump, PMI said.
“The housing market has been hit by a demand shock of high unemployment and a supply shock of distressed foreclosure sales,” LaVaughn Henry, senior economist at PMI, the fourth- largest U.S. mortgage insurer, said in an interview.
…
Why would anyone except the super-rich buy a home now, given that prices are predicted to continue dropping through Q1 2011? Do people have any clue how much money they stand to lose if this prediction comes to pass?
Anecdotally, that $8,000 fed tax giveaway has proved staggeringly successful at drawing people into the market. Real estate agents are also banging the drum about the likelihood of an interest rate rise thanks to all of Uncle Ben’s funny money.
And, having done my time at the board in the back of the class (see yesterday’s Bucket for the full story), I’m here to say, that the tax credit is for 10% of the purchase price or $8,000, take the lower of the two figures. So, looks like this puppy ceilings out at the $80,000 purchase level.
Any substantial interest rate rise would wipe out the paltry $8000 home equity giveaway in the blink of an eye. Given that rates are currently at 50 year lows, substantial increases seem quite likely going forward.
Is the new $8k dependent on income?
Just asking because I theoretically qualified for the previous $7500, but due to income, i only was able to receive $1200 of my half of $3750. I have a decent salary, but not that high where I could be purchasing homes above the $200k range very comfortably.
Basically, I’m saying that this $8k, if it’s income based, couldn’t be actually helping too many people in the eastern and western states.
Form 5405 and the related FAQ’s are online regarding the $8,000.
Why would anyone except the super-rich buy a home now, given that prices are predicted to continue dropping through Q1 2011? Do people have any clue how much money they stand to lose if this prediction comes to pass?
No. Many don’t have a clue. This reminds me of how we bet on NFL games when I was a Marine in Okinawa in the ’70s. The games were shown, tape delayed, Sunday afternoons on TV. However, they were broadcast live on radio at around 2AM the previous morning. Many people hadn’t a clue that the scores were already known to the few who cared enough to get up early and listen on radio. The radio listeners cleaned the clocks of those dependent solely on TV for their info.
“In 2007, after the bubble began to burst, Matt Lauer said to Corcoran on ‘Today,’ ‘We’re talking about the worst housing market in generations, or a generation. What happened?’ She replied, ‘I think the worst is behind us. You should know that, right now, prices are at their lowest point, in my belief.’”
“What sort of evidence was Corcoran relying on when she went on the air two years ago and made these prognostications? ‘Wishful thinking,’ she says now. ‘Obviously, I was dead wrong. Do I regret it? No. Fortunately not everyone is as diligent as you to go and look it up.’”
Yeah, how fortunate for her, and those like her.
How unfortunate for those who listened to her and followed her advice.
How unfortunate for those who today, buy into the brazen lies about the economy being spread like manure by the government and MSM. Want to know why the crisis of confidence fuelling the credit constriction and market declines will continue? Because every day the lying jackasses
who created the mess keep pretending their continuing lies might somehow fix it. Because they think we will all forget and not be diligent and swallow more lies. Typical eggheaded egomania and narcissism from the very top, sprinkled to the perceived ignorant slobs below, like so much fairy dust.
How unfortunate for the men whom she has a habit of molesting:
“On three separate occasions, Corcoran grabs my legs and my arms and tells me how muscular I am. “Wow! Wow!” she says, all bright-eyed and amazed, as she feels my thigh. “I go to the gym three days a week and it’s the worst part of my day. How do you get like that? I wish I could do that.”
“She was constantly telling her brokers how attractive they were,” recalls a former Corcoran underling. “The first time I was in the office she felt my butt and said something like, ‘Welcome to the office.’ Or she’d squeeze a guy’s arm and say ‘You’re so muscular.’ She’s not hitting on you, she’s selling you. It usually works.”
So in addition to being a criminal lying jackass, she’s an old played out sex offender.
One womans “sex offender” is a guy’s “Dream come true”.
Unless she’s a hose-bag.
“How unfortunate for those who listened to her and followed her advice.”
That collection of morons and idiots also deserve the pain they are getting. Hey, at least they weren’t being “negative”. They were oh so positive. Now they are positively hosed. It serves them right.
“Because every day the lying jackasses who created the mess keep pretending their continuing lies might somehow fix it.”
I think that what we are seeing is a whole group of people trying to prop things up in the here-and-now with the assumption that this is a quick turnaround event. They don’t care how many useful idiots are taken down in the process. It’s akin to a D-day attack in which you assume a net casualty loss. They just are too stupid to get it and it will come back to bite them in the ass.
The Corcoran article is a corker.
“Do I regret it? No. Fortunately not everyone is as diligent as you to go and look it up.”
Works in business and government, it seems. What an era.
“in retrospect, the party-poopers were right” -classic
Party-pooper = anybody that has some common sense and is not a mindless drone
There weren’t many party-poopers around but I sure am glad I was one of them. Manhattan prices are off 25% in the past year. If we had listened to all of the “optimists” we would be financially ruined right now. At best we would be slaves to some stupid apartment. At worst we would be bankrupt.
You’re just bitter because Barbara Corcoran never groped you.
You don’t know that.
I love it when Eastcoasters bicker.
So typical of the whole Orlando concept. Why can’t we just be o.k. ? What’s wrong with being o.k.? I can’t stand the “happiest place!” mantra. I hate Orlando. This is one of the reasons I’ve always loved Western New York. Most people there seem to be o.k. with comfortably moving along in life.
Florida is like ground zero for people hurriedly hurtling towards a “better, happier paradise!”
I am become pooper, destroyer of party.
I am become pooper, destroyer of party.
LOL - sort of like one of my cats depositing a harrball on the living room rug, during a back yard barbie….
“The Brannans have already sold 75,000 tickets at $10 a piece”
I’m sorry, that just tears it! In the past we’ve had retired truckers and english teachers have lotteries and “essay contests” but never realtwhores! This is a new low.
And won’t the neigbors be pleased when the “winners” ( and I do mean winners ) move in w/ their ‘81 Camaro to claim their “prize”! Get this, they’re conducting the scam through a website no less? Nope, no room for Fraud there. Of course if they only sell (1) more ticket they’ll be obligated to let it go 750k. If not, everyone will get their money back I’m sure.
I’d pay $10 to kick Miles Brannan in the sack. Heck, when I was done I’d get back in line and pay him another $10. I think I would do this for at least 10 good kicks. That is $100 right there. I would also tell friends about this form of recreation. If Miles’ sack could withstand 300,000 good kicks the Brannans would be all set. That is what I call a “win-win situation”.
Don’t wear white shoes. He’ll eventually be barfing up blood under your plan.
“sack”?
Oh… ‘that’ sack. LOL!
Kick’em in the balls NYCB! Kick’em in the balls….. And then say Merry Christmas.
Aren’t their LAWS against running a gambling game (lottery) in most states? There are usually exceptions that they let chuches and other charities slide through, but big mone realtors?
oops bad chile beat me to it.
You have hit on the point i was going to post if no one else did. This is GAMBLING and it is illegal for anyone not licensed in the State to provide a lottery ticket.
These “Professionals” should look up the LAW concerning games of chance in the State of Florida, or else the Attorney General or the local Police Dept. should be looking it up for them, and putting them in cuffs.
You can legally “AUCTION” real property in Florida if you are licensed to do so, but you can’t sell chances to win the title.
I hope the newspaper does a follow-up story.
Also, they claim they already have a bunch of cash.
Who is holding it? Escrowed with Bernie Madoff, perhaps?
This looks like a scam all around. A realtor trying to find the greater fool. The lottery is clearly illegal and his website is already closed down. The house does indeed Zillow at $3bmillion plus, but has gone UP from !.5 since he has had it sitting on the market and houses on each side, which look very similar, are still Zillowed at $1.5, while the rest of the streed is around $1. Oh yes, his 100 foot dock is actually the bulkhead along the canal behind of his property.
The website is still up at 8.30pm eastern, the key is that the link from the news source is messed up. Has some interesting legal stuff in the FAQ. Good read.
Linky: www [dot] floridaluxuryauctions.com
Thanks for the link, Bad Chile. (You could have put in the ‘dot’ to make it easier for us all). Taxes: $34k/year!!
The Brannans have already sold 75,000 tickets for $10 a piece on the website they set up, and they plan to keep the lottery going until they sell 300,000 — or until December 25th, whichever comes first.”
Woohooo! Another illegal housing lottery! Wonder if it gets shut down this week or next week?
I love the illegal housing lottery stories just because I can imagine these jokers trying to figure out how to return $750,000 that they’ve likely already spent. Just brings a smile to my face.
What makes these lotteries illegal, if prospective buyers and the seller are in mutual agreement to participate? Imagine if you could pay a couple of hundred dollars to get a home in a process that made the seller $750,000 richer. The excitement of participation might well exceed an outlay of $200 or so to participate. How this is any worse than Las Vegas gambling or state lottery participation is beyond me.
““‘Actually we just looked on Zillow and the value of the house is going up, I think it was $3.2 million last time we checked,’ Brannan said.”
There are no words…..
“There are no words…..”
Yes there are but there is no way Ben would let them through.
Let’s try it:
Duck
Puck
Luck
Schmuck
…. Help me out here.
Muck
F…?
As a libertarian, PB, I agree. But as someone that loves seeing people in the real estate industry get their due, I love it. I suspect the reason for the law is that the potential for fraud is huge…
And just for the record, the Florida law is section 849.09. They’re comitting a boatload of third-degree felonies, each punishable by up to five years in prison and a fine of up to $5,000. In fact, depending on how you interpert the law, they may have comitted a third-degree felony 75,000 times already.
I’d like to see how they plea in this case given that they have published a confession.
Florida state law?
(1) It is unlawful for any person in this state to:
(a) Set up, promote, or conduct any lottery for money or for anything of value;
(b) Dispose of any money or other property of any kind whatsoever by means of any lottery;
(c) Conduct any lottery drawing for the distribution of a prize or prizes by lot or chance, or advertise any such lottery scheme or device in any newspaper or by circulars, posters, pamphlets, radio, telegraph, telephone, or otherwise;
….
Sadly, I bet they just get a slap on the wrist and have to return the money.
Of course it’s illegal for “any person” to conduct a lottery in Florida, but if you go to the referenced web site, you’ll see the lottery benifits the Mission of St.Francis.
See, it’s a charity, not a lottery.
I’ll bet the Mission gets at least a couple hundred bucks out of the deal!
PB, nobody’s argueing that they’re wrong in a moral sense, just illegal.
OK, so you just won a $750K house that you now should owe IRS taxes on as income and at the same time owe property taxes on. What next?
A guy tried that in Germany, and it was declared illegal.
Why on Earth do these idiots keep trying this same trick over and over again? Do these people somehow think that they are different then the last set of fools that tried the old lotto trick and got busted? That they are smarter and will get away with it? Every couple of months there is an article about someone new trying this and the results are always the same. No Dice!
so cal lender,
Perzactly. Like they were the 1st guys ever to “think up” a ponzi? Dumber still to talk about it in the paper.
To be perfectly truthful ( and I’m just being painfully honest here? ) had “I” won a house ( legally or otherwise… ) through some sort of lotto drawing or essay contest, I’d become the perfect example of The A-hole Neighbor!
Any why NOT! “I” don’t have any skin in the game. Chances are the taxes on $3 mil. place would break most winners in short order anyway? And what’s to stop them from turning around and selling it for $100k in short order? ( That’s whole lotta’ meth you know ) Probably won’t hurt comps in the slightest.
Professionally, it’s so repulsive I just can’t get into it. How would you feel if you were a CPA’s client and rather than having the n-o-r-m-a-l “practice transition” you found out you were “won” in a freaking raffle by the first yahoo that just finished the “intensive” H&R Block 3 Week LTC “course”? Not too good huh?
I’d rather waste my money on the real lottery. At least in the unlikely event you win, you get cash instead of a white elephant- with taxes due!
“Wicklund said. ‘We’re at a point where I don’t know how much lower it can get.’”
If you’re not sure then I would advise to stay away from the market because you’re likely to get hurt.
“Actually we just looked on Zillow and the value of the house is going up, I think it was $3.2 million last time we checked,’ Brannan said.”
Realtors are finally admitting they have no more insight into real estate prices than computer generated models missing tons of important variables. Most of us could give a much more accurate estimation of our own home’s value, but we are not Realtors. Thus, have a better general understanding of real estate.
by the way..the GREEDY HOUSING BUBBLE hasn’t burst for these two idiots…
http://www.bcpa.net..they bought their dream McMansion in 2005 for $2.3 and now they want to clear in 2009 over $3 million…
and then they are stupid enough to quote “Zillow” which since 2007 has not been able to correctly give a housing value anywhere in South Florida…
Will somebody please revoke their real estate license before they seriously injure someone?
The Broward assessor shows a 2009 “just value” of $1,447,700 for this p.o.s. - at 85%, that translates into an estimated selling price of just over $1.7 million.
All the rest is wishful thinking and delusion…
you actually believe the assessor’s office has any idea what the value of the property is?
get real. ALL these Bozo’s from the county offices said the properties were worth 2x what they are now because they allowed phoney sales to be conducted with neg am mortgages.
this is not a real “Sale” and should not be considered for “value”, but they did it, and pushed up everyone’s property taxes.
now that the funny money “purchases” have stopped, we see what people are really willing to PAY for the houses.
but values are still in flux.
this mess should have been stopped before it started.
The new normal will come after a $17 trillion divorce.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aKLGZEc7qoqA
“Think of China and the U.S. in history’s most expensive divorce. The two economies total $17 trillion of output, and polls in China show little support for adding to almost $800 billion of U.S. Treasuries. This argument can be broadened to the rest of Asia. The idea that China or Japan — with $686 billion of Treasuries — can just start selling massive blocks of dollars is ridiculous. It would devastate markets the world over and the fallout would boomerang back on Asia. If you think markets are shaky now, just wait until word of a central-bank fire sale gets around.”
I heard a simple explanation of why China would never dump blocks of anything..
Countries of whom the USA is a primary customer for exports buy Treasuries for a simple reason: To support the US economy.. They don’t like it, but they do it anyway because as goes the US economy, so goes their own.
And as for what “polls in China show..” exactly who are they polling? I doubt it’s the 5 guys who run the whole show.
“They don’t like it, but they do it anyway because as goes the US economy, so goes their own.”
At least right up until the point where they are finished diversifying out of the US dollar.
The question remains. Who’s gonna buy their stuff if the US doesn’t?
China’s problem is not that they are heavily invested in Treasuries.. and they don’t need to diversify out of treasuries.
They need to diversify their customer base.
“They need to diversify their customer base.”
Clearly the underwater US consumer ain’t it any more.
It’s basic.. Business 101. Never get into a position where you rely on only one (or a few) large customers.
What can China do? Get innovative and create new markets for it’s exports? Re-tool factories and point customized products at countries besides the US? That’ll never happen. Among the reasons is that the recession is global and nobody is buying crap they don’t need.
China may try to manipulate the money markets and perhaps gain some advantage there. I don’t think that can work because they don’t have enough horsepower to pull it off alone.. and they certainly are not going to enter an alliance of countries that might be capable of it. They don’t trust anyone and it’s folly to trust China.
China’s economy will decline along with everyone else. Baring some major upheaval they will survive relatively unscathed in the eventual recovery. Currently there’s a lot of thrashing and threatening only because they’re still in denial.
China’s only solution is to develop an internal customer base. This, of course, would have been much easier to do prior the onset of a worldwide depression. China will avoid this option as long as it can, less for economic reasons, than for poltical reasons. ( Middle classes want pesky things like property rights, consistently applied rule of law, government transparency, democracy, etc.)
“Think of China and the U.S. in history’s most expensive divorce.”
Is this what the GS wanker meant by ‘decoupling’?
China just saw us in the morning without our make-up on and they’re having an oh $h!t moment and wondering if they can get this thing annulled. Hopefully they’ll decide to stick with us til the kids are grown.
Divorce proceedings are underway:
Finance and Economics
China and the dollar
Yuan small step
Jul 9th 2009 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
The dollar’s role as the world’s main reserve currency is being challenged
Illustration by S. Kambayashi
THE Chinese used to call dollars mei jin, which means “American gold”. Buying black-market dollars was considered the safest way to protect one’s savings. Yet in June when Tim Geithner, America’s treasury secretary, told students at Peking University that China’s official holdings of Treasury bonds were safe, the audience laughed. Faith in the greenback is waning.
In the build-up to the annual summit of G8 countries, which began on July 8th in the Italian city of L’Aquila, officials in China, Russia and India all called for an end to the dollar’s dominance in the international monetary system. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s president, declared on July 5th that the dollar system is “flawed”; his central bank has been reducing its dollar holdings. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, repeated its call for a new global reserve currency in June and is now taking the first steps towards turning the yuan into a global currency.
…
We are currently on vacation so it’s been tough to post.
Big news, we’re buying a house! (ducks and covers)
We had looked at a 2800sqft. single story custom ranch on 3 acres with view lot. The bank was asking 325K, we offered 275K cash. They countered at 322K, we countered at 298K, 50% down. They countered at 321K. I told them to take a hike.
2 weeks later, we got a call today from UHS letting us know that they reconsidered and will accept our counter of 298K.
If all works out as I expect we’ll be able to seamlessly transfer from the current rent free squat to the new abode sometime in August.
Big news, we’re buying a house!
Better you than me. All the people I know that own houses are doing housework this weekend. What a great way to spend your precious weekend. I would congratulate you on your purchase but I would be lying. Good luck.
Good thing I ducked and covered. I grew up a farm boy and I do actually enjoy working on a property and making it better. To each his/her own I guess.
I’ll turn 42 Sunday and I expect to die in this paid off house.
There isn’t a shack on the planet worth $300k.
NYCBoy is right. Good luck… you’ll need it.
Undoubtedly, a paid for house is a curse I shouldn’t wish on anyone.
Nobody said a word about it being paid for. It’s all in the price my friend. And the price is precisely what this blog has been about since it’s inception.
I’m on dude’s side. $300,000 isn’t bad for 3 acres and a nice house. Where is it, dude?
Palmdale 93551.
Isn’t Palmdale were Debbie Rowe has property?
current rent free squat
How does that work, and why would you give it up?
I’ve been rent free since last Nov. because my LL said he was letting the house go back to the bank and if he wasn’t paying, neither should I.
9 months later there is still no NOD.
Where is this house?
93551 in the hills south of Palmdale. The previous purchase was in 2002 at 350K. The bank took it back for 335K.
Prolly not such a bad deal.
When they called you back why didn’t you say. “Well I have reconsidered as well and the offer is now $250k.” Obviously you had them by the b@lls.
When I told them to go jump off a dock I also asked the sellers agent to let them know that if I came back later with another offer it would be lower. I’m quite satisfied with the price but I would say to others looking to buy tract housing in that area they should expect at least another 25% fall.
Congratulations! Sounds like you drove a hard bargain, but you got your number. Don’t listen to the party poopers - there is nothing wrong with buying a house. Obviously you can afford it and you got a nice house it sounds like. Have a great weekend!
A niece and a nephew are both getting married in I.F. this weekend. (not to each other) one down one to go.
I’m happy for you. Hope all goes well. Your post gave me some insight. We’re going the same route soon.
What, no bidding war?
Did you get an inspection?
How about an aprasial for your own reference?
As Big V asked, where is this house?
Are we all invited to the HBB house warming party?
(we’ll take our shoes off)
The house and property sound great!
No bidding war, there were some others we lowballed on that came back with multiple bids. None of them have closed yet and I expect the appraisal will kill those deals.
Inspection is a contingency so yes we will have one, as well as a well production and septic inspection.
A house warming party is a great idea, I’ll make sure everyone knows when and where.
As far as where the house is, if one drives the 14 fwy. north to just the point where the Antelope valley opens up below the property is in the hills to the right of the freeway, south of Pearblossom hwy.
This house will also take 8 miles each way off my current commute.
You sound like you took a logical path. We’re renting, both a residence and 3 storage units, so we figure even if housing goes down some more in Ventura or L A Counties, we’ll have a break even point in a yr or 2 after purchase. We’re cash too.
We will get an apprasial and an inspection. Did the bank balk at the inspection?
How long and how many homes have you looked at?
Any Mello Roos or HOA?
Why did you pull the trigger on this home?
Any advice or insight on dealing with a bank?
Did you use Redfin?
No HOA or Mello Roos. The area is zoned 1 acre minimum and not likely to change since it is in county, not city.
The bank didn’t have any problem with the inspection, and if they had I would have walked.
We have looked seriously since late last summer and this house was about #10 that met our specs. We had made offers on 6 or 7. We were looking for single story over 2500sqft. on more than an acre, horse prop. whilst staying west of the 14 fwy. or south of Pearblossom and west of 25th E.. We also refused to go to Acton or Agua Dulce. That list of criteria obviously limits the selection considerably.
We did it because it lands well within the 3X income and met all our criteria.
Did not use Redfin, we used the same UHS that sold our home in late ‘04 and our 2.5 acre lot in ‘05. BTW, we sold our 2149sqft. home on 7000sqft. lot for 320K. This house in that time frame would have sold at 550K or more.
“No HOA or Mello Roos.”
Dude –
It sounds like you are set. Though I am currently in denial about future buying prospects, I won’t be surprised if I myself rejoin the ranks of homeowners at some point over the next five years. But I am not sufficiently well-heeled to buy before prices have bottomed out, and my sense is that we are not nearly there yet.
Agreed on the not bottoming out yet. I think we are in the overshoot but it could get a lot more overshooty.
Dude-
Thank you for the reply. It gave me some insight. I haven’t been through the process of buying since 1998, and it’s muddy waters (so to speak) out there right now.
Best wishes, and I hope it works for you. I am personally holding out for a CA bankruptcy and blood in the streets, but to each his own…
United States
California’s budget crisis
Meltdown on the ocean
Jul 9th 2009 | LOS ANGELES
From The Economist print edition
As the state’s finances disintegrate, for many so does the California Dream
Bring it on is what I say. If you knew my new neighborhood you would also know it is about the last place ne’er do wells would want to venture.
Reid said. ‘Hopefully, the worst of the foreclosures are behind us, but who knows?’”
If you’re not sure then I advise to refrain from giving your clients any potential misinformation about the housing market. Some one might get hurt
My faded memory of that famous mortgage reset chart tells me the peaks for option ARMS and Alt-A extend through and peak around mid-2010.. and then decline a bit.. and then things get really bad around the Fall of 2011.
Adjusted for the faster recast rate it looks pretty smooth ramp until sometime in 2011. Given the banks will be insolvent by then might drag out for a while.
My guess is government will step in and sell off property again. Like the 90s but on a larger scale. Should further crush prices.
I’m expecting China’s moves to diversify from treasuries will help cause some inflation to balance things out in the rest of the economy. Expect real estate to keep bleeding for another 5-6 yrs. The rate of bleed will vary. Its still bubbly in LA and expect it to remain so for a while. Reverse gentrification is also slow.
You are in the business of advising people on real estate purchases and you DON’T KNOW the current foreclosure situation? Somehow I get the feeling Mr. Reid doesn’t actually want to know.
“If a person is unemployed, they are going to start missing mortgage payments”
Man, what brilliant analysis…….and we’re probably paying a princely sum for this stunning insight. Seriously, we should have as many “economists” unemployed as we have construction workers.
Anyone economist who has said anything like “nobody saw it coming” in the past 18 months should be out of a job, and taking up residence at the local Rescue Mission.
And I was in such a good mood……….
We need t-shirts that say “Mug an economist. They’ll never see it coming.”
+1…..Ben should start a HBB “Collector’s Edition” of T-Shirts; this one would be #2 of the series.
Or maybe become the national distributor of those oh-so-rare and collectible “Beanie Babies”……..
I can remember when my daughter was eight, and was showing me her Beanie collection, and how they were all going to be worth hundreds of dollars……..I tried to give her the hint that maybe that might not happen, but all the “experts” were telling her I was full of crap; so she believed what she wanted to believe. It was kinda sad, seeing that first hint of disillusionment on her face when she realized the “experts” were lying to her, just to get money out of her……..better Beanies Babies than a house I guess.
(Everyone tells me I’m too cynical…….but something always happens to demonstrate that my cynicism is justified).
sfbubblebuyer,
That made my Friday night - too funny. I’d buy that shirt…would be cool with a HBB Regular logo on the front.
Maybe a whole series of shirts:
#2 should be:
Got Boxes? (sorry, I’ve forgotten who gets credit for this gem)
#3
Joshua Tree Orifice Avoidance Team Member
#4
—and on.
I prefer t-shirts with front pockets. Not sure why…somehow I feel more dressed up with a pocketed t-shirt with my well-worn jeans and boots that I put on immediately every day after removing my suit and tie.
HBBER’s,
Just a heads up - apparently the word orif*ce does not pass Ben’s smell test, but I loved sfbubblebuyer’s t-shirt idea. Some other ideas I proposed:
Got Boxes? (I’ve forgotten who to credit this gem to)
Joshua Tree Orif*ce Avoidance Team
Low Interest Loans to Frogs and GeoDucks - Apply Here
With $300k in annual income, they really should be able to pay the principal on their $1MM loan, refinance or not. And why is a federal stimulus program going to help people who earn like the top 5% or so of incomes in this country?
read the comments to that article. they are not kind.
“we just looked on Zillow and the value of the house is going up”
I noticed in Bay Area, CA Zillow values have started to creep up. When I look at the local news the state and local economy are not thriving but RE has turned around.
I feel insulted but can’t lash out at Zillow. I don’t have North Koreas cyber weapons. Otherwise, I would be temped to use them.
Hey Lost in Utah,
I got a call from Hwy 50. He’s on 128 in Moab and wants to meet up. Shoot me an email and I’ll give you his phone number.
Interesting study, counter to conventional wisdom. The poor are twice as likely to leave California than the rich:
www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jul/10/us-california-migration-071009/?nation&zIndex=129973
Sounds like CA is getting wealthier by the day, no?
How far do they get?
The poor need jobs.
I’d like to comment about what’s being called “long-term joblessness.”
The real problem is that the American concept of a “job” is obsolete. I think were headed toward a labor market similar to those found in the Middle East. Either you’ve got a government job with some level of pay and security, or you’re in some small family business that operates out of a market stall, or you’re living hand-to-mouth.
The idea that a typical American house can be priced at $300K, $200K, or even $100K is laughable. Five years from now, anyone who can find 80 hours of work a month will be doing very well.
The current print edition of The Economist features a US bubble collapse Schadenfreudefest.
United States
Statewatch: Florida
Sorrow in the sunshine
Jul 9th 2009 | CRYSTAL RIVER
From The Economist print edition
Sun, sand and seniors are not enough. Florida needs to diversify
SAILORS of old sometimes mistook manatees for mermaids, which shows how months at sea quaffing rum and missing female company can cloud one’s vision. Manatees (also called sea-cows) actually look like giant underwater slugs. Yet tourists love being kissed by them. A friendly manatee may swim right up and touch your face with his. Some people find this spiritually uplifting. Others merely think it fun to touch something so bulbous and endangered.
Either way, Crystal River, home of perhaps the world’s largest herd of wild manatees, has long profited from hordes of holidaymakers flying thousands of miles to swim with them. But not this year, alas. “It’s the holiday weekend and the boat is half-empty,” grumbled Mike Birns, a guide for Sunshine River Tours, a small local operation, on the Thursday before July 4th.
Florida is reeling. Despite its many attractions, from riding the rollercoasters at Disney World to riding with the Bare Buns Bikers (a group of nude motorcycling enthusiasts), tourist arrivals in the first quarter fell by 10.6% from last year. In a global recession, dream vacations get deferred. Visitors are coming from closer by and spending less when they arrive.
Meanwhile, Florida’s property bubble has popped violently. Empty condos blight the eastern seaboard. The median price of a home in Cape Coral-Fort Myers has fallen by two-thirds since 2006. Statewide unemployment, at 10.2%, has trebled since then, as bricklayers lay down their hods and tour guides doff their Mickey masks.
Anyone else just wish we would get to whatever this new normal is going to be? I’m ready for it, probably more exciting than waiting for it. Besides, tired of holding my tongue in front of the delusionals!
“Anyone else just wish we would get to whatever this new normal is going to be?”
No pain, no gain. Before we get there, we need a few earthquakes, hurricanes, riots with blood in the street, and maybe a sideshow akin to the OJ trial.
P.S. I don’t mean to come across as though I espouse any of the above. I am merely recounting the typical history of such episodes (refer to Cali in the 1990-1996 period for a recent example).
CIT-out-of-luck moment for yet another major lender. This one going under could send a major ripple through almost a million small-to-midsize businesses which depend on it for loans.
Wall Street Journal
* JULY 11, 2009
Major Lender Faces Crunch
CIT Hires Bankruptcy Adviser as Payment Looms; Financier to 1 Million Businesses
CIT Group Inc., a lender to almost a million mostly small and midsize businesses across the country, is preparing for a possible bankruptcy filing after so far failing to win a government guarantee to help it borrow, said people familiar with the matter.
To prepare for a possible filing, CIT has retained the law firm of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP, which has a prominent bankruptcy practice, these people said.
…
Perhaps the Fed is not so far above the law as they presume to be? Their recent rogue actions certainly do raise plenty of questions worthy of inquiry.
Wall Street Journal
* JULY 10, 2009, 12:46 P.M. ET
Lawmakers Call for Fed Probe
By MICHAEL R. CRITTENDEN
WASHINGTON — A bipartisan group of U.S. House lawmakers is asking President Barack Obama for an investigation of the Federal Reserve, ratcheting up the pressure on the central bank coming from Capitol Hill.
Three Democrats and 14 Republicans wrote in the letter to Obama that the Fed shouldn’t be granted any new authority amid questions about its role in fostering Bank of America Corp.’s acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co. The White House’s regulatory reform proposal would give the Fed broad new authority to contain systemic risks.
“If a thorough investigation of these events brings to light conclusive evidence that the Federal Reserve has overstepped its authority and abused its power under current law…it would be inappropriate to grant it sweeping new powers,” said the July 10 letter signed by Reps. Scott Garrett (R., N.J.); Alan Grayson (D., Fla.) and others.
…
First do no harm.
Wall Street Journal
* BEST OF THE WEB TODAY
* JULY 10, 2009
The Krugman Fix
The stimulus isn’t working! Must . . . have . . . more . . .
By JAMES TARANTO
…
The Krugman Fix
The economy is in recession, unemployment is rising, and some on the left, including former Enron adviser Paul Krugman, think the solution is massive new federal spending–a “stimulus” bill.
No, our column has not gone into summer reruns. Congress passed the so-called stimulus in February, and Krugman, writing in today’s New York Times, wants another one. “The bad employment report for June made it clear that the stimulus was, indeed, too small.”
Of course, there is another possibility. Perhaps the harms caused by massive new government spending outweighed the benefits, so that the stimulus didn’t help or even made matters worse.
…
Sorry for the repost, but I urge anyone who did not yet carefully read this monumental WSJ Op-ed to do so. As I mentioned previously, the only key element that seems to be lacking here is elucidation of the connection between government housing subsidies and Congressional campaign finance.
Wall Street Journal
A Government Failure, Not a Market Failure
By John H. Makin
From Commentary
The housing bubble was a fully rational response to a set of distortions in the free market—distortions created primarily by the public sector.
Where’s Aladinsane when you need him?
* The Wall Street Journal
* JULY 10, 2009, 11:15 P.M. ET
Catching The Gold Bug
By LARRY LIGHT
Worried about a harrowing, inflation-ridden future, Scott Van Steyn has found the answer in a batch of glittering one-ounce gold coins. In fact, they make up a large chunk of the physician’s assets.
“There’s 2,000 years of history to show that gold is the best thing to own during bad inflation,” says Dr. Van Steyn, a 45-year-old orthopedic surgeon in Columbus, Ohio. “People used to laugh at me for buying gold. They don’t anymore.”
…
How could the Fed possibly surprise the markets with inflation, given that it is already widely anticipated, and that everyone knows they are actively suppressing the inflation risk premium in l-t T-bond yields by purchasing bonds with freshly printed virtual currency?
“a 45-year-old orthopedic surgeon in Columbus, Ohio”
Gold should be collapsing any day now.
Mr. Madoff chose not to appeal. Fear of further embarrassment should his wife ever take the stand?
I’m down with 150 as long as you don’t reveal ……………………