What Kind Of Frenzied Buying Activity Are We Seeing?
Time for the annual Christmas shopping thread. “How about what to get your favorite used house salesperson, or FB for Christmas?”
Several replies: “A pre-paid bus ticket, if it’s a metro area. Recommend a particular row.”
“A gift basket with a squeegee, a spray bottle, and a piece of cardboard.”
“Bullet-proof evening gown.”
“Orange jumpsuit.”
“For the used house salespeople I suggest a copy of M. Scott Peck’s ‘People of the Lie.’” “Who would give a realtor a gift?”
“Donald Trump cologne?”
A reply, “How’d you get the goat to piss in the bottle?”
“A conscience?”
“Joshua Tree’s are the perfect gifts for realtors. In fact you should give them a few extra and ask them to share with their recent clients. Don’t need to tell them why. If I ever buy a house I plan to give out a few if I think they are needed.”
Others want to know what you see locally, “This is the last weekend before Christmas. The retail ‘analysts’ have been constantly telling us that the shoppers are waiting until the last minute this year, as an explanation for why retail numbers are so low.”
“This is an assumption that there are actually buyers out there with a pent-up demand, the same desperate assumption made repeatedly by NARies.”
“What kind of frenzied buying activity are we seeing this weekend after all?”
One posted, “Our Malls have been packed to the max since last weekend, of course I have no idea if they are all buying like mad. The American consumer is well trained though, so I would expect they are doing their job. We’ll see.”
One had a prediction, “Well if things don’t go as planned, they’ll blame the weather — copious snow in the Northeast, ice in the Midwest…”
One reported, “Actually I did see a last minute shopping frenzy. Kohl’s had been empty the 2-3 times I had been in it since Thanksgiving. Last weekend as I picked up my popcorn popper w/my earned Kohl’s bucks, the store had 2 lines at least 30 deep at one point feeding customers into the cashier lines. The shopping center’s parking lot was packed to overflowing. I think people were waiting for last minute bargains but in the end didn’t want to look like Scrooge.”
“That being said, I did post earlier that the local media was interviewing shoppers in the mall and for several the cuts in the Christmas budgets from last year was deep. (ie, 50%, $600 down from $1600).”
One from California. “Here in San Diego, the malls are even busier this year than 2006 and 2005. Maybe people are depressed about the economic malaise and are doing some ‘therapy’ shopping?”
Please tell me what “FB” stands for?
Marry Christmas!
FB = “F**ked Borrower”
I think it also stands for flip buyer on occasion.
Most flippers used borrowed money for their flips and are now underwater; hence, they’re still F**ked Borrowers. We in here usually differentiate between FBs, who are in trouble with their primary residence, and flippers, whose “investments” are tanking, though they’re basically in the same boat.
Festive Blessings! Maybe just for this week
Ben, thanks to you and the regulars for educating this lurker/renter about the bubble. As a result, I’m stashing way more cash, spending way less, and I kept a friend from catching a falling knife. May you and yours and the rest of the gang have a great Holiday.
BTW, I want to thank everyone who sent me a Xmas card. I’ve never gotten so many in my life and the personal notes expressed were touching.
Hope a few of them had checks enclosed as well.
–
“Here in San Diego, the malls are even busier this year than 2006 and 2005. Maybe people are depressed about the economic malaise and are doing some ‘therapy’ shopping?”
This explains busy stores in Palmdale, which is on my way to visit family and friends. But I don’t know if it is busier than 2005, 2006 during few days before Christmas.
Jas
“Here in San Diego, the malls are even busier this year than 2006 and 2005. Maybe people are depressed about the economic malaise and are doing some ‘therapy’ shopping?”
That is because few people are shopping in other parts of the state. Sales Tax revenues are down down down. Maybe a lot of people are looky looing longing for the good old days.
Headline from today’s UK Telegraph:
Crisis may make 1929 look a ‘walk in the park’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=0HHIMZHR0N2NVQFIQMFCFF4AVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2007/12/23/cccrisis123.xml&page=1
People are drones. They don’t know how to stay at home and just enjoy each other’s company. They go to the mall so they can text message friends and talk on cell phones. I don’t think mall traffic is the greatest indicator of spending. It’s a better indicator of the deterioration of society.
RE: People are drones. They don’t know how to stay at home and just enjoy each other’s company.
You can Roger that one, good buddy!
Personally, I don’t think J&J6P has few if any socialization skills.
Years ago my parents had to relocate to Chicago IL. They rented a duplex in Elgin.
One day my mother introduced the neighbor’s living on each side of their residences. Both occupants had been living in their respective abodes for like 20 something years and didn’t even know each other.
WTF?
One day my mother introduced the neighbor’s living on each side of their residences. Both occupants had been living in their respective abodes for like 20 something years and didn’t even know each other.
Disturbing, but becoming more and more prevalent. I’m my own best evidence that being very transient and footloose is the best move for any individual. This is my third year in a row I earned over $200,000 and this is my third different city. Doesn’t allow for being neighborly, especially when you have to anticipate leaving your new place anytime. Good? Bad? You be the judge, but it’s something you have to understand.
Most of the bloggers here say a depression is imminent. I’ve been making that assumption since 2000. It forced me to be flexible and not own. For those who hate the idea that people are not neighborly and friendly, yet agree a depression or severe recession is likely, you cannot have your cake and eat it too.
Transient, move a lot, and $200,000 a year. You a drug dealer?
LOL. No. A contract software engineer. BA Math/CSci ‘85, MSCS ‘90 and have been working professionally in that field since 1985.
A lot of bankers begging for lower central bank rates, and easy liquidity. If not, they threaten, a second Great Depression. However, at the same time everyone is saying that efforts to inject liquidity haven’t had much effect. Lower US$ rates to 1% and watch the dollar carry trade go nuts.
I wonder if people would be buying all this stuff, if they looked at the labels for the countries of origin. By law, the country of origin must be given, but many companies omit it (because the country is China). Buying cat litter today, I noticed that on one of the moderately-expensive brands using liquid silica crystals it said in itsy-bitsy print “Product of China.” I then looked at the very expensive liquid silica crystal brand I’ve been buying and it said “Made in China” in uber tiny print. I went the rest of the supposedly non-toxic brands till I found one–ONE–that said “Made in the USA,” and bought it.
I believe every product imported from China should have a huge sticker on it (and any other packaging and inserts) saying “Made in China,” and any product, even made here, using Chinese ingredients should have a huge sticker saying so. A very high percentage of stuff coming in from China, including metals and plastics, or made with Chinese components is toxic, and consumers should not be fooled by companies making record profits at buyers’ risk.
http://www.cpsc.gov/cpscpub/prerel/prerel.html
http://blogs.consumerreports.org/safety/
http://www.thepetfoodlist.com/petfoods_pg1.htm
Amen!
I’m one of those wacky “Buy American” people, too, I drive American cars, etc.
Nothing bothers me more than to see an American Flag or “Support or Troops” sticker on some foreign bumper.
(I also don’t think it’s appropriate to paste our Flag on a car bumper in the first place. It should be flying on a pole…unless your HOA prohibits it.)
Re: American cars.
There are really no “American” cars anymore. Just yesterday, after waiting 13 years, I bought a new car, a Ford Fusion. It is only 40% American parts. The transmission is from Japan, some 35% of the other parts from Mexico, and the final assembly was in Mexico. I’m not making a statement about good or bad globalization, just relaying the facts I learned yesterday.
I also work for a Boeing subsidiary and have intimate knowledge of the new 787 coming out next year. All of the constituent parts of the 787 are also built, literally, all around the world. Then the final assembly is up there in Everett, Washington. Whether you are pro/anti globalization doesn’t matter at this point. It is a fact of life now.
I understand this well, and look for something that’s at least assembled in the US.
Buying inferior American products is just an indirect form of self-taxation.
Personally, if I want to give to charity, I choose more deserving causes than corporate America.
I dont like american cars personally. They really have a terrible reputation and everyone I know who has one has had some major problems. I dont think it has anything to do with being made in America though. Since Camrys are great cars. I would generally go for a japanese car thats either made in Japan or USA. Seems like cars made in every other country have some major issues.
I’ve never understood the “buy American” nonsense. Why stop there? Why not only “buy California” or “buy Norwalk”. Personally, I won’t buy anything not made on Earth.
Why trade at all? I make all my own clothing and grow my own food! Granted, taking care of my cavities is tricky, but you don’t really need teeth anyway.
I too believe trade makes us all richer, although there should be appropriate safety oversight, which clearly has not been the case of late. Many folks are, I think, just using the latest news as a way to slam trade, and wouldn’t suddenly become fans if all the safety issues vanished overnight.
Should include a sticker with the skull and crossed bones too.
I agree. But, here’s something creepy. Hills, a prescription pet-food company that had a few of its products recalled because of the Chinese crap, now puts “Made in the U.S.A.” on a big sticker on the front of its packages. Well, almost all of the recalled dog and cat foods, more than a hundred and fifty, were actually made in the U.S.A., using wheat gluten from China. The company producing them is Canadian. So the sticker “Made in the U.S.A.” can be a complete deception, and with Hills, is clearly intended to deceive.
Incredulous,agree. Companies like purina, hills, and iams and eukanuba all use chinese-sourced ingredients, semi-processed in Canada, and then packaged and distributed in america, but slap a big Made in USA label on the package. Stuff is still dangerous, the FDA has not increased inspectors or inspections. Newmans, solid gold and Merrick’s out of Texas are totally American sourced, produced and packaged.
Watch out for treats–Salmon bites are from Alaska–on the package–but then shipped to China for processing and packaging–in who knows what conditions or with what additives. The government will not lift a finger to protect pets.
For parents, it’s a full-time job–flammable textiles for children’s clothing, lead-based paint, and who knows what in Twinkies and apple juice. If it’s made in China, it’s potentially toxic–that’s the bottom line.
Wellness cat food for my kitties. No meat by products, gluten, etc. The vet suggested Hills. I couldn’t pronounce 3/4 of the ingredients and decided - NO.
Simple solution - don’t waste your money on animals.
Chinese products and food with Chinese ingredients should have warming labels like cigarettes. Although I bet the same folks who can’t let somebody smoke a cigarette on the whole other side of a restaurant away from them, willthink nothing of buying cartloads of toxic Chinese crap for themselves and their kids.
Cool! I am in good company with my assertion that helicopter drops of liquidity are futile when the banking industry’s most essential form of capital, trust, has been systematically destroyed by a protracted period of policy errors.
“Liquidity doesn’t do anything in this situation,” says Anna Schwartz, the doyenne of US monetarism and life-time student (with Milton Friedman) of the Great Depression.
“It cannot deal with the underlying fear that lots of firms are going bankrupt. The banks and the hedge funds have not fully acknowledged who is in trouble. That is the critical issue,” she adds.
Therapy shopping?I think a lot of people do that every day around here.they don’t know what to do with themselves so they shop.kind of sad that people have to buy something to feel good these days.
“kind of sad that people have to buy something to feel good these days.”
Actually we’re way past that. Now they have to shop so that they won’t feel bad. Debt is an addiction as powerful as many drugs and equally destructive.
Funny you say that about people buying something just to feel good..my husband and I don’t exchange presents during the Christmas..we do for the kids..don’t feel the “need”(we actually have met up on alot of people who do that)..however we know several people who are in debt up to their neck, struggling to get by, mortgaged and second mortgage to the tilt and yet HAVE to go out and buy something for their spouse that they can’t even afford..(of course on credit to show off)..and yet us, the ones who could go crazy if we wanted don’t..some have even made comments saying they could NEVER come home to wife without something..sad..that they have to be married to someone so self centered…
When will people learn??
If the malls are busy and crowded with people, it does not mean that people are really spending money. In hard times, individual tends to go to places where there are many people. It is for a distraction, not to buy and spend money on anything. During Great Depression people waited in lines to get to movie theaters, in postwar Europe, you cannot find free seat in any coffee house, while there was rations on everything.
I haven’t curtailed my xmas binging. I spent the same this year as last, $0.
Last night on the local newscasts, Mayor Bloomberg was photographed with entourage shopping at Macy’s with a pitch for shoppers to take advantage of retail stores’ “extended shopping hours”. Repeated that business was good, economy was good, and this is a time to buy gifts and enjoy the season. I’m guessing that means retail is off, and the foreign buyers have not saved the retailers.
In the SF Bay Area, I find the parking lots to be pretty full and traffic pretty heavy. However, the checkout lines seem to be short. Who cares if people are at the malls but not buying? I think this Xmas season will be a dissappointment to many retailers, and the death knell for many others (like CompUSA).
Looking forward to ’shopping’ in Colma at Malloys. Celebrating Emperor Norton’s day with my fellow Clampers on 1-5-08.
Outside of the actual serious injury part of the story, this one will surely amuse txchck: The one time my wife ventured out shopping this year she was nearly killed. She was at Target on Thursday, heading down the escalator when she heard a horrible grinding sound. She whipped her head toward the source of the noise and saw an old man releasing his shopping cart - onto the escalator. It tumbled straight for my wife, slamming into her midway down the escalator. When a chiropractor viewed the Xrays the next day she said that if she had not known how my wife had been injured, she would have assumed she had been broadsided in a car accident. Nice job, Target. Rather than developing a simple system to prevent this, or spending 10 bucks and hour to hire a kid to watch over this, they choose to leave it as is. When we filled out the incident report at Target the manager mentioned that a colleague of hers had the same thing happen to her - she was leveled by a shopping cart. While there is something inherently comic about such a strange accident, I don’t find it all that funny that Target would allow this to happen. What if my little girl had been with her? My MIL was in fact with her, but was lucky enough to be ahead of her, so she was spared the crash, which is good, as she has bone-mass problems. Anyway, I know most of the posters don’t need much inducement not to shop somewhere, but, for me, don’t shop at Target. Thanks.
What kind of Moron tales a shopping Cart on a Escalator ?
The type that Lionel pays to take out his mother-in-law. It’s on to Plan B.
NYCitBoy, shhhhh. Actually, it was a two-fer.
ROFLMAO!!!!!
Probably the same that pays $400k for a communal apartment or $700 for stucco coated Tyvek.
The Sunnyvale, CA Target (in a “dead mall” called Sunnyvale Town Center) has a separate shopping cart escalator next to the people escalator. It’s one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen.
Because I don’t celebrate Christmas*, I really hate going shopping this time of year. I feel like I’m being forced to pay a “Christmas tax” of my time, comfort, and safety.
(* No, I’m not an atheist, I’m Jewish! And I resent the Christmasification of Hanukah, which certainly isn’t “the Jewish Christmas. I’d rather see “Merry Christmas” on a store window decorated with reindeer and snowmen than “Happy Holidays”. )
I know this is OT, but I am an atheist. However, I enjoy the spirit of Christmas and actually feel resentful that we have to be politically correct. I haven’t met anyone from a different faith who cares that folks say ‘Merry Christmas’.
Can you imagine the impact on the economy if we decided to do away with shopping at Christmas because it was politically incorrect? Hummm, I guess those debts would go away then!
I’m young enough to mostly have grown up with the whole Happy Holidays stuff.
We are agnostic and celebrate a secular version of Christmas. I started saying “Merry Christmas” again this year. No one I ever met said with ill will - it was always good wishes. How did we get to the point that the greeting was insensitive and cruel? (And yes, why do Jews have to celebrate Christmas through Hanukah when, IIRC it was always a minor holiday, somewhat like Memorial Day?)
Basically, I’ve come to realize tolerance and sensitivity has nothing to do with somehow whitewashing your culture and heritage and pretending it isn’t there. Part of my heritage is celebrating Christmas, as is the majority of Americans - if I accidentally say that to a Jew or Muslim I hope they take it the way it was meant: a gesture of good wishes. It would be my sincere hope that on their high holidays that I would be greeted in a similar manner. That is the definition of tolerance, not pretending we are all the same (or should be).
I guess I’m tired of being a “generic” American and ashamed of our heritage. We have much to work on and much to be ashamed of, for sure, but there is a a great deal of good as well.
Exactly. I’ve never felt that someone wishing me a Happy Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, or Christmas was trying to do anything other than offer a wish of goodwill and happiness.
What is so horrible about someone wishing you well and happy during a festive time, whatever the occasion might be??
The ‘Happy Holidays’ issue is pure inanity in the name of sensitivity.
I too, am an atheist. I enjoy the gift giving and surprises. I enjoy the festive lights and all. I say “Merry Christmas” and people tell me that too. It does not have to mean you are a Christian. I have Objectivist ethics and metaphysics, but have some hedonism thrown in.
“And I resent the Christmasification of Hanukah…”
I resent the Christmasification of Christmas.
And who among us resent or embrace the Xmasification of Christmas?
Funny that I only realized what that meant in the past few years.
What kind of Moron tales a shopping Cart on a Escalator ?
Apparently one who’s 100+. My wife’s guess was that it was his sole trip shopping for the year. He was crafty enough to flee the scene however.
I recent watched some 900-year-old lady reverse out of her parking space and TWICE hit a car that was trapped behind her. Then she drove away. I got her plates, and hope she gets her license yanked. Far too many old people are just as bad as drunks once they get behind the wheel.
Sammy S said:
“Far too many old people are just as bad as drunks once they get behind the wheel.”
Yes, I’m sure a number of people who live in L.A remember the horrible ‘accident’ in 2003 at the 3rd St Farmers Market.
For those that don’t know, a man called Russell Weller - 86 years old - mistook his gas pedal for his brakes, and drove his car into stalls at the twice-weekly Farmers market on 3rd and Arizona in Santa Monica, killing 10 people and injuring 70 others.
IIRC, in the UK you have to retake your drivers licence exam every 5 years after the age of 70 - is this the case in the US?
The Target near me has a special escalator system for shopping carts between the regular escalators. You push your cart onto the special excalator (that catches the front wheels and keeps the cart level) and then get on the regular escalator and ride up next to your cart. It is sort of creepy - a separate transportation system for your stuff.
That being said, I think I have seen an employee posted near the system when the store is busy to help people. When the store isn’t busy, I don’t see anyone around to help with the system.
Perhaps the old man didn’t see the special cart system? An employee told him to use the escalator but didn’t explain he didn’t mean the regular escalator? The old man was used to a Target that has such a system but this one didn’t?
No matter what happened, it is terrible and I hope your wife is OK, that Target is very generous and that the old man is not judgement proof. What a terrible way to start the holiday. And Target tends to have really big carts. They are heavy. Make sure you have the name and contact info for the manager’s colleague - it shows they know this is an ongoing problem.
Polly,
The Target in a shopping mall near me also has a special escaltor system for the shopping carts. The store used to be the Emporium
Thanks, Polly. I’m on it. I’ll find a good PI attorney in the new year.
Lionel,my best wishes for your wife.
I will disagree, however that the store needs to create a special system to keep numbnuts like that one from dropping his cart down the escalator. Maybe scan for brains on the way in though..
\rant-on
The nanny-ification of this country has gone too far already. I worked in a large department store for 6 years when I was going thru college (25 yrs ago). NEVER, EVER did anyone try that. I think the basic problem is that people don’t friggin think anymore….no barriers, must be ok. DOH. No warning label, can’t be dangerous. No one told em not to take the loan…..
\rant-off
Agreed. The elderly fellow is at fault here, not the department store. Where are all the personal responsibility proponents that usually post here????
All New York City needs for Christmas is for all of those rich Europeans to keep buying and our Wall Street overlords to keep getting those massive bonuses. They are so well earned. The financial giants are here to serve us and we should never forget that. They will save our fair city from having to go through the pain that California will be feeling. God bless them, every one.
Everyone have a Merry Christmas. Especially if its not your religious holiday; for this time of year is for friends and family.
I’m in the Joshua tree camp for giving to people of certain industries. Although, for some, it might be best to find a copy of the “Porn stars for dummies” guide as they need a career change with high pay.
So it was Kohls for popcorn poppers?
Neil
http://www.coloradoyurt.com/
For the flopped flippers who are ready to trade up from their cardboard boxes, may I suggest a tent, tipi, or yurt?
I went to the mall yesterday to pick up an antique watch I had repaired at the jewelry store. The two sales ladies were like carnival barkers, trying to lure people into the store. They told me everything was on sale. Make an offer. Frankly, I’ve never seen anything like that. I grabbed my watch and ran.
RE: I grabbed my watch and ran.
At least you got your watch.
Some dude here in Beantown put a substantial downpayment on a collector’s watch priced @ $460,000.00 (no typo) with a high end watch/jewelry retailer.
With word to no one, the Indian owner decided he’d bag it and split for india.
Principal debtor’s re-opened the store, but according to BGlobe reporters a saleman had no answer as to the status of Mr. High Roller’s watch or deposit.
With the first pick in the 2008 Dead Pool Draft I would like to select Alan Greenspan. His credibility is already dead. Can his body be far behind?
Only the good die young.
Posted in local obs - but probably more relevant here.
Every Saturday morning we take long walks through the heart of Chicago’s North Side. Yesterday it was 52 degrees so we walked from Addison to North and back again. We went past, and into, many stores of all types. Shelves were full but the aisles were not.
Again, it was quite warm out, and we walked during prime shopping hours 10 am - 2 pm. Walgreens, Gap, countless boutiques, Starbucks, TJ Maxx, Cost Plus World Market, Borders - all kinds of stores. It has been somewhat slow every week we walked this fall - yesterday though - should have been nuts. Plenty of parking spaces too for a Saturday.
Even my girlfriend, picks up on the significance of what we are seeing firsthand. It is not cheap to run a store and a resturant in this part of Chicago - so the traffic seen this fall is very ominous.
Of course no one was shopping.
The weather was too good.
High 50s here. Blue skies and lots of sun. The fog has just rolled in. It was a beautiful day not to be shopping.
‘The sluggish economy is cutting into Tempe’s tax revenue and, if trends continue, could turn a surplus into a projected deficit within a year. The city is taking the biggest hit in retail sales tax revenue, which is down 5.5 percent this year, compared to a year ago.’
‘The drop is significant because retail taxes generate 55 percent to 60 percent of the city’s sales tax collections.’
‘The city didn’t forecast this kind of slowdown. It expected a surplus of $6 million for the fiscal year that ends in June, but that prediction has been revised to a modest surplus of $1 million to $1.5 million. Vice Mayor Hut Hutson warned that retail sales in Tempe aren’t just down — he said each month’s revenue has been smaller than the previous month’s. That means even the revised surplus projection could be too optimistic, he said.’
‘And things could get even worse, said Jerry Hart, the city’s financial services manager. He doesn’t expect an economic turnaround soon, given gloomy reports of the slumping housing market, rising gasoline prices and credit problems.’
“Vice Mayor Hut Hutson”
His dad must have been a quarterback.
Tampa is a dump, I wouldn’t wanna live there for the life of me. If their tourist basis shrinks there is little industry to pick up the slack.
What tourists? Tampa is just a stop along the way to the rest of Florida. There’s little here for tourists to see or do. And you’re right: It is a dump (but don’t tell the locals, because they won’t believe you).
Never considered Tampa as a residental area..all the homes seem to be built around warehouses and commercial properties..of course they try to dress them up by having a gate going in but..YUCK..like a smaller bad version of Miami..
–
‘The city didn’t forecast this kind of slowdown.’
What politicians, or most economists for that matter, forecast a “slowdown,” especially, fall in revenue in advance?
Jas
Bailout Trial Balloon
Sunday before Christmas – float the idea and see what happens. $200 billion bailout….
“Gaining some currency is the idea of a government agency modeled after the Resolution Trust Corp. of the S&L days that would buy up mortgage-backed securities as a way of dealing with bad loans. About $100 billion in such loans have surfaced and an additional $200 billion are likely, according to market estimates.
If the government spent $150 billion to $200 billion to purchase mortgage-backed securities, the thinking goes, it would prevent a fire-sale that would drive prices of these securities even lower.
When the housing market stabilizes, the price of the government-held securities would begin to rise, allowing the government to sell them back to investors.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071223/ap_on_an/mortgage_crisis
You can package a turd in many different ways (bright colors, sound bytes of important people debating “turdability”, commercials featuring diapered dogs dancing to rap music, faux Tootsie Rolls, etc.), but in the end, it is still just a turd.
Oh, they are going to get political support to buy this junk from offshore hedge funds and little towns above the Arctic Circle in Norway (or was it Sweden?)?
I don’t think so.
So who gets to sell their stuff to the trust? Only NYC investment banks? Only large commercial banks? If the large commercial banks, then why do we have depositor insurance?
Floating an idea like this this weekend is just an indication of how little faith the proposers have in its viability.
This is NOTHING like the Resolution Trust. If the government needs make FDIC investors whole, that is one thing, simply buying junk mortgage bonds from banks that made bad investment decisions is something else.
They will also have a problem decided where to stop. Will they buy foreign held mortgage-backed securities? What about pension funds? Bonds backed by commercial lending? LBO derivatives? A few hundred billion won’t cut it.
I have said all along that the government needs to save the money for FDIC rather than screw around with buying this junk paper . As far as I’m concerned ,every move the government agencies are making is to transfer the hot potatoes to free up the Lenders and Investment firms . Who else would buy this junk paper at this point in time ?
The public needs to get stuck with the tab one way or another.
I dreaded the idea of having to go to “Toys R Us” which is part of a huge strip mall adjacent to SouthCenter Mall. But guess what? It was like any other day as far as traffic, crowds, lines, etc. Also I have noticed a LOT of adds from local retailers that were not so present last Xmas. Looks like even here in “special” Seattle there is a marked slowdown. I think there are a lot of WAMU employees who are definitely cutting back….
Maybe there is more “on line” buying. I bought one gift on line, sent two checks for $75 to my neice and nephew, and went to Best Buy for the last 2 gifts and sent them off. 40% of my gifts were at shopping centers. I hear that it’s very easy to buy from Toys R Us on line. Maybe that’s what people have done.
For of those of you who haven’t seen the article in the Business section of today’s NY Times on the Florida market here it is, along with a few choice quotes I picked out.
http://tinyurl.com/24ozdx
“By 2004, the median house price in Cape Coral and Fort Myers had shot up to $192,100, according to the Florida Association of Realtors — a jump of 70 percent from $112,300 just four years earlier. In 2005, the median price climbed an additional 45 percent, to more than $278,000.”
AS construction and real estate spiral downward, the unemployment rate in Lee County has jumped to 5.3 percent from 2.8 percent in the last year. With more than one-fourth of all homes vacant, residential burglaries throughout the county have surged by more than one-third. “People that might not normally resort to crime see no other option,’ says Mike Scott, the county sheriff. “People have to have money to feed their families.” “Darkened homes exert a magnetic pull. “When you have a house that’s vacant, that’s out in the middle of nowhere, that’s a place where vagrants, transients, dopers break a back window and come in,” the sheriff adds.
At Selling Paradise Realty, a sign seeks customers with a free list of properties facing foreclosure and “short sales,” meaning the price is less than the owner owes the bank. Inside, Eileen Rodriguez, the receptionist, said the firm could no longer hand out the list. “We can’t print it anymore,” she says. “It’s too long.” In late November, more than 2,600 of the 5,500 properties for sale in Cape Coral were short sales, says Bobby Mahan, the firm’s owner and broker. Most people who bought in 2004 and 2005 owe more than they paid, he says. “Greed and speculation created the monster.”
1/4 vacant? Wow.
How long do you think we have to a bottom? I live in “silly” valley, ca and have stable employment but the housing nonsense of the past several years have kept me from “jumping in”. It looks a little better now, at least people don’t tell you how stupid you are for not buying.
Anyone have a feel on how employment is in the area? The IT guys and defense seem to be doing quite all right, are JV funds still strong? I get bombarded by recruiters with startup positions, as it happens my field, energy related, seems to be quite hot.
Here is my prediction, next bubble, green tech.
IMO the next bubble will be in the medical / pharmaceutical related industries serving the massive aged boomer population.
“IMO the next bubble will be in the medical / pharmaceutical related industries serving the massive aged boomer population.”
I agree — medical services are purchased with third-party money.
It doesn’t seem like any industry has been hit yet besides the homebuilders and realtors. Give it another year before anything actually happens with this mess. My current job seems to be doing ok and hasnt gotten rid of anyone yet. Its a full shop land development engr and we are slow. I was told worse than the beginning of the 90’s recession in LA.
I bet tech gets hit hard sometime by this summer. How many people without jobs are really going to buy a blackberry? And is google based on purely webads really going to keep doing record numbers through a downturn? How many people really need to buy a new ipod every 6 months???
The large Corp. I work in has determined that the Windows mobile devices are crap / unstable. E.g Trio, Sumsung I830, Verizon 6800, etc. Everyone is switching back to Blackberries. They truly rule in our version of Corp America.
Ben - Do you take enhancement requests? A spell checker would be spectacular.
“A spell checker would be spectacular.”
It’s a popular browser plug-in.
My prediction: people will spend the last of their credit card or equity money on Christmas, and the economy will tank in February as it becomes impossible to spin all the negative indicators into anything other than a major recession. At a certain point, especially during the holiday season, people just say “F**g it, we’re going to have a good time”. Probably more spent on food, drink and small gifts than on large ticket items, though. When we did our shopping on Monday, the stores didn’t seem crowded, but we don’t shop at malls (even normal non-holiday crowds and parking make malls pure torture for us).
Good point. The roads are very crowded and we went out to eat with our family to the Olive Garden last night at 5p and it was super crowded. This is the last hurrah for a lot of people. I have friends of friends in pre-foreclosure with no help in sight and they just flew out to North Carolina to see the family.
I also mentioned before that my husband works at a Toyota dealership in Orange County. They were going to start laying people off on the 1st. Well, they already started last Friday. 2 down 15 more to go.
Made my last car payment and my last credit card payment..starting act more like a chipmunk getting ready for a bad winter storm….
I’m bringing a whole pile of books (about 80, I think) to the Friends of the Library store this afternoon. Typing up the list for the tax receipt now. Barely made a dent in my collection. Sigh. I used to get free books at a volunteer gig I did. Very dangerous.
I love the Friends of the Library. A few years back I bought a book called, “Breaking out of Plastic Prison” (credit card debt) Best investment of my life. Book cost .25 cents.
How about a thread for next weekend. Should be appropriate.
“Broke is the New Black.” I’d be happy to aggregate and write a guest column, or you do it.
Just saw recently that credit card delinquencies were rapidly increasing.
I mean heck, you can’t blame people if the banks won’t give them their semi-annual Home Equity loan to clear out their credit card debts, car loans and a give them a little bit of walking around money.
It is Un-American, to deny people access to their home equity.
I was out in the mall to check what to buy after Christmas, and mall was not crowded at all. I even had parking right in front of mall entrance yesterday afternoon. There was lines like usual, but I did not see people pushing mountains of goods, but instead buying small items and books. Only grocery store was crowded, but everywhere else was usual weekend traffic. I remember couple of years ago, when weekend before Xmas made roads around mall undrivable. However, this is not the case this season. It means to me that people’s income had slowed significantly here in Northern Virginia.
Walmart was busy this afternoon..but everyone was buying items that were in the isles for $10 or less..toy department had lots of people just WALKING BY…
The guy we buy our Christmas tree from every year for the past ten usually has 2 guys helping him sell, and tie to the car. This year it was just him.
I am noticing a lot of homes for sale in Zip where the price is far below what the last buyer paid. We are going to look at one that was bought in O5 for 740K, now REO and listed at 589K.
Also the local Safeway is having a big problem with increased theft of cigs, pepsi, etc.
My mom tells me that Fair Oaks Mall, Fairfax County, VA, has been just dead empty. But I said more and more people using gift cards. She said why the gift card when you are limited to certain stores / malls ? Why not cash ? I said Mom they can credit card charge the gift cards, can’t charge cash.
That is absolutely true. I went to Pentagon mall and Potomac Yard mall yesterday to buy day-to-day stuff, and there was no traffic at all. I am in need to buy a new TV, since my old TV of 12 years is dying out, so want to plan buy it a new one after Xmas. I was expecting Best Buy to be crowded, but there were no shoppers. People were buying small items, like CD, DVDs, games…, but not big-ticket items like TVs. I was disappointed from the choice, since only plasma TVs were available there. I don’t need any expensive TV, but there was nothing else to choose from.
Walmart has amazing prices on “regular” ( read non-plasma ) tv’s. We got a beauty there last year - about 50″ or more screen, very heavy to lift, for all of $178.
“JOSHUA TREES”
I’ve followed this blog for YEARS. I know all about “Suzanne” and “feeding the squirrels”.
But somehow I missed the start of the Joshua Tree “in joke”. Can someone please explain it? It’s driving me nuts!
It’s notionally used as a suppository for FB’s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_tree
Apply to rectum of real estate idiots untill you feel better.
ex-nnvmtgbrkr started it … I think it started with comments about shoving a Joshua Tree up a particularly annoying Realtor&tm;’s ass, and it was all downhill from there…
The thing is, I think there were a series of comments until everyone got grossed out, and now the references are more oblique. But for a while there, it was “Joshua trees for everyone!”
It wouldn’t bother me to never hear another “Joshua tree” reference again.
Joshua tree. Sorry Sammy couldn’t resist.
“Donald Trump cologne?”
Owe de Trump
On the 1st day of christmas the houisng bubble gave to me:
a mortgae that was free
on the 2nd day of chritmas, the bubble gave to me,
too many payments
and a mortgage that once was free
on the 3d day of xmas the bubble gave to me,
a three year arm
too many payments
and one years’ mortgage that was free
on the 4th day of xmas the bubble gave to me
four mortgage resets,
three year arm,
too many payments
and a mortgage i once thought free
on the 5th day of christmas the bubble gave to me,
5 govt bailouts,
4 mortgae resets,
three year arm,
too many payments
and one year’s payment i once thought free
on the 6th day of xmas the bubble gave to me
6 brokers stalking,
5 govt bailouts,
4 mortgae resets,
3 a three year arm,
too many payments
and a mortgage i thought would be free
on the 7th day of christmas, the housing bubble brought to me,
seven displaced middle class,
6 brokers stalking,
5 govt bailouts,
4 mortgae resets,
3 a three year arm,
too many payments
and a mortgage i thought would be free
on the 8th day of christmas, the bubble brought to me,
ate way too much interest (rates)
seven displaced middle class,
6 brokers stalking,
5 govt bailouts,
4 mortgae resets,
3 a three year arm,
too many payments
and a mortgage i thought would be free
on the 9th day of christmas, the bubble gave to me,
9 govt monkeys babbling
ate way too much interest (rates)
seven displaced middle class,
6 brokers stalking,
5 govt bailouts,
4 mortgae resets,
3 a three year arm,
too many payments
and a mortgage i thought would be free
on the 10th day of christmas the bubble gave to me,
10 % drop…time to buy, or i can’t feed my family
9 govt monkeys babbling
ate way too much interest (rates)
seven displaced middle class,
6 brokers stalking,
5 govt bailouts,
4 mortgae resets,
3 a three year arm,
too many payments
and a mortgage i thought would be free
on the 11th day of christmas the bubble gave to me
11 thousand reasons not to buy
10 % drop in prices
9 govt monkeys babbling
ate way too much interest (rates)
seven displaced middle class,
6 brokers stalking,
5 govt bailouts,
4 mortgae resets,
3 a three year arm,
too many payments
and a mortgage i thought would be free
on the 12th day of christmas, the bubble brought to me
12, make that, 1200 govt bailout attempts
11 thousand reasons not to buy
10 % drop in prices
9 govt monkeys babbling
ate way too much interest (rates)
seven displaced middle class,
6 brokers stalking,
5 govt bailouts,
4 mortgae resets,
3 a three year arm,
too many payments
and a mortgage i thought would be free
merry xmas every body,
yours,
crush
LOL Crush.
Thank you for the Christmas song.
Merry Christmas to you
most excellent, crush
Duuuude.
If anyone gets the chance go to Turtle Talk with Crush at California Adventure. Most excellent, most fun for kids and adults alike.
“How about what to get your favorite used house salesperson, or FB for Christmas?”
To borrow from Misstrial:
A gift card from Greyhound that buys a one-way ticket to Needles, CA. Only to be used during the Summer.
How about a modified chastity belt, to prevent Joshua Tree insertions?
What is up with President Bush plan to go beyond the “Teaser Freezer” program? It looks like he is getting pressured to do more. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071223/ap_on_an/mortgage_crisis
More moral hazard in the pipeline.
I’m heading out to REI now near the Dallas Galleria.
Pray for me. LOL
I say, may be a new phenomenon ANGER SHOPPING. Angry that their houses are loosing value in thousands of dollars, they want to buy everything in sight, just like people get fat with eating disorder when people go into depression. A self destructive behaviour.
“Anger shopping”
Reminds me of the poster here who compained he was always angry about everything, he even had anger sex with his wife.
He finally got help for his anger problem and gave up his angry behaviour, including the anger sex.
The problem is his wife misses it.
“Anger shopping” is a chick thing. Utterly irrational and unhelpful, like a lot of things women do when they’re upset.
“Anger comments” is a guy thing. Utterly irrational and unhelpful, like a lot of things men do when they’re upset.
Dang Vermontergal,
You beat me to it.
Wow Sammy,
Just be thankful you don’t have a lot of angry women with guns. There may be a few out there that might want to scatter some buckshot your way.
True enough. But my point still stands.
I just got back from circuit freakin city, where I stood in line behind a god damned woman that could not get any of her credit cards to work. After going through those she finally wrote a check. Then the cashier had to call and get the check approved. Yea, like that’s going to happen. This woman was tapped out on a 1/2 dozen different cards. What are the chances there’s any money in her checking account. I gave up and changed lines. She was still there when I left……
just got back from circuit freakin city, where I stood in line behind a god damned woman that could not get any of her credit cards to work. After going through those she finally wrote a check. Then the cashier had to call and get the check approved. Yea, like that’s going to happen. This woman was tapped out on a 1/2 dozen different cards. What are the chances there’s any money in her checking account. I gave up and changed lines. She was still there when I left……
“…where I stood in line behind a god damned woman that could not get any of her credit cards to work.”
I had this same experience early this year at an Albuquerque Starbucks. I would have been really embarrassed, but this effeminate guy was totally unfazed — like rain drops falling on a duck.
“How about what to get your favorite used house salesperson, or FB for Christmas?”
I would get either of them an anatomically correct Yun blow up doll.
Shopping in Atlanta:
Friday –Lots of traffic on the streets, shops about as crowded as a typical weekend, no one buying much. I probably bought more than anybody else I saw at the registers, & I only spent $100. Those who were shopping were Boomers, who appear to be the only demographic group that still has any money. The area of town I was shopping in used to be dominated by the obnoxious Soccer Moms, but I didn’t see even one.
Sunday–The streets look like the city was evacuated–No one really out anywhere. I went to the grocery stores, which were carzy mobbed last year, but this year Kroger was a little less crowded than a typical Sunday . The only people buying much were using food stamps. Had to go to Publix also, to buy a standing rib roast. It was a ghost town, and fresh corn there was $1 PER EAR.
“…and fresh corn there was $1 PER EAR.”
It’s pirate corn…. a buck-an-ear.
Funny, AK.
I was going to avoid the malls entirely this year, but now you guys have me curious about what’s happening here in Anchorage Alaska.
If I spend money, it will be at one of those “Hot Dog on a Stick” places (love the lemonade), and maybe a few pairs of socks.