It’s A Mountain Of Foreclosures In California
The North County Times reports from California. “Some homeowners in the area have gone months without paying their mortgages and have yet to receive a foreclosure notice; a development that suggests banks are overloaded and that also might mean foreclosure reports are understating the region’s housing crisis. Since January, more homes entered foreclosure than were sold to new buyers, according to monthly reports from several data firms. But even that rate probably fails to include all the distressed homeowners.”
“‘It’s not even volume anymore. It’s a mountain of foreclosures. … There’s no comparison in history,’ said Ramsey Su, a real estate investor in San Diego who used to run a brokerage firm that sold foreclosures.”
“‘We have a couple of clients where we’re just like, ‘Wow, how long are you going to let them live rent-free?’ said John Woodall, a real estate agent who specializes in short sales.”
“‘Most alarming is the fact that, in spite of all these programs that are trying to save or stop the process, more and more people are not paying. The question is, are these programs encouraging people to not pay?’ Su said.”
The Union Tribune. “The University of San Diego’s monthly report on leading economic indicators fell again in July. The USD index has fallen for 27 of the last 28 months. ‘I would say the local economy is in a recession right now,’ said Alan Gin, an economist with USD’s Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate.”
“The intensity of the housing downturn has overshadowed any gains by other sectors, dispelling the notion that San Diego’s economy was too diverse to suffer much in a recession. Gin used to endorse that theory. Not anymore.”
“‘It turns out the damage from housing, the loss of employment from housing, is much more severe than I would have thought,’ he said.”
“Kelly Cunningham, an economist with the San Diego Institute of Policy Research, thinks the recovery isn’t in sight yet. Though the pace of home-price declines may slow, there is no sign of a bottom.”
“‘It’s not just that home prices have fallen,’ he said. ‘It’s the fact that so much money has been withdrawn. That’s really what kept the economy going for so long - people being able to take money out of their homes and spend it.’”
The Press Enterprise. “Some homeowners tempted to buy a more affordable house in a declining market have committed fraud to ditch the supersized mortgage they no longer want.”
“The abusers are homeowners who could afford their mortgage payments but didn’t want to keep a house whose value had dropped below what was owed on it. On the loan application, they led the lender to believe they intended to put a tenant in the first house so they could afford the two mortgages. But once escrow closed on the new house’s purchase, they stopped making payments on the first house, letting it go into foreclosure.”
“‘This adds an element of fraud to a market that is already out of control,’ said Inland economist John Husing.”
” Michael Pfeifer, an Orange County lawyer who specializes in recovering losses from mortgage fraud for lenders, blamed the abuses on homeowners desperate to keep houses on which the mortgages have reset at higher interest rates and on ‘brokers who are out to get a commission and don’t particularly care how.’”
“A 55-year-old man said he let a house in southern Corona go to foreclosure and bought another in Lake Elsinore, lowering his monthly payments from $5,200 to $2,100. He wanted to remain anonymous because what he did ‘could be construed as fraud,’ he said.”
“His Christian beliefs told him lying was wrong, and his parents had taught him to pay his debts, he said.”
“‘The only way I can justify it (lying to his lender) is that I think a lot of people made a lot of money selling bad mortgages to anyone who walked in the door,’ he said.”
“Judging by last month’s existing home sales in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, which the California Association of Realtors said increased 177 percent from a year earlier, many consumers have decided that their circumstances make it right to buy now.”
“‘I always wanted to be a homeowner and now it is finally possible,’ said Michael Carlin, a 29-year-old Corona school teacher. Carlin, who started house hunting in July, has faced fierce competition in his $200,000 to $240,000 price range, with each house receiving up to 18 offers. He said recently he made offers on eight houses in hopes of having one accepted.”
“Carlin said he considers a house an investment and wants one with resale value. But he said he is not willing to wait for the lowest price because he is tired of living in a condominium he rents for $875 a month.”
“‘Once I buy a house, I will make a definite effort not to monitor housing prices for my own peace of mind,’ he said.”
The Fresno Bee. “The worst home-building climate in decades is buffeting another developer, forcing Woodside Homes into bankruptcy court in Riverside.”
‘The company has subdivisions throughout California, including three in Fresno and Clovis and five in Visalia and Tulare. A group of five insurance companies holding more than $155 million in notes filed an involuntary petition, asking a judge to force the builder into bankruptcy.”
“Instead, Woodside agreed on Wednesday to file a Chapter 11 reorganization petition by Sept. 16. Lafferty Homes of San Ramon and Dunmore Homes of Roseville left the Fresno marketplace, and Beazer Homes of Atlanta said it will stop building here Sept. 30.”
“‘Historically, Woodside has posted industry-leading profit margins,’ said Jennifer Mercer, a company spokeswoman. ‘Unfortunately, the tightening of the credit market, the devaluation of land and the overall economic downturn has resulted in declining home sales.’”
“After 52 years of selling everything from discount dishwashers to high-end ranges, Fresno retailer Bilsten’s has closed. Owner Paul Gilchrist said the slow economy killed sales and, on Aug. 15, his company.”
“‘There’s no one coming into the stores,’ he said.”
“Bilsten’s, like so many others, rode the wave of skyrocketing home values. Customers bought newly built homes and ordered high-end Wolf ranges for up to $15,000 and tacked on $2,000 dishwashers. The company’s outlet near Blackstone and Barstow avenues also did big business, selling dented and scratched appliances at a steep discount.”
“Then construction of new homes stopped, and high-end appliance sales dried up, said Gilchrist.”
“Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates Inc., a national retail consulting and investment banking firm, said he’s not surprised at the number of closures.”
“‘We have 19.5 square feet [of retail space] for every man, woman and child in the United States. That’s a crazy number,’ he said. ‘As long as our economy booms you can support that, but when the economy goes down … do you need 12 shoe stores in every mall? … Do you need eight jewelry stores? I don’t think so.’”
The Modesto Bee. “Testimony on how foreclosures are hurting the Northern San Joaquin Valley will be offered during a House Committee on Financial Services ‘field hearing’ Sept. 6 in Stockton. Valley housing experts and community leaders will share their views with members of Congress.”
“San Joaquin, Stanislaus and Merced counties have the highest foreclosure rates in the nation. More than 20,000 homes have been lost to foreclosure in the past year, and the volume of defaults keeps rising. Nearly 12 percent of all mortgages are 90 days or more delinquent in Stanislaus County and more than 15 percent are delinquent in Merced County, according to research firm First American CoreLogic.”
“‘This is an incredibly serious problem and getting worse,’ said Rep. Dennis Cardoza, D-Merced. ‘For us, this is as devastating as Hurricane Katrina. … If it had happened in one week, the federal government would have sent in Army troops to help us, but it happened over time’ so the impact isn’t widely understood.”
“Patty Amador, whose 20-year-old Modesto mortgage company is among the region’s largest, will share her concerns about recent changes Congress made to mortgage finance requirements.”
“‘Many of these buyers have the ability to qualify for loans and make payments on safe, fixed-rate mortgages. Unfortunately, few have the funds necessary for the down payment or closing costs,’ Amador said. ‘Recent legislation has not only eliminated a widely used financing tool, known as Nehemiah, but will also increase the amount of required down payment along with the monthly payment as a result of increase mortgage insurance requirements.’”
“Many first-time buyers, however, depend on down payment help to become homeowners, Amador said.”
“‘Now is not the time to be taking away financing tools, nor increasing costs to borrowers, if we are going to come out of this ‘crisis’ anytime soon,’ Amador said. ‘If we back financing tools with prudent underwriting, we can bring this market back without the risk of a reoccurrence of bad loans to the wrong borrowers.’”
The Manteca Bulletin. “Homes are now selling every 6.2 hours in Manteca. It is a torrid pace even surpassing the go-go days of the housing bubble that is fueled by one thing and one thing only - housing prices too tempting to resist.”
“There were 635 closed deals as of Aug. 22 within the City of Manteca. But that is only a part of the story. The sales pace virtually doubled overnight in mid-July when banks started aggressively pricing foreclosed homes to the point where it makes sense for investors to buy as well as first-time homebuyers.”
“Another positive is the inventory of available homes. But since foreclosures are driving 80 percent of the sales, the fact there is essentially a 4.8-month supply isn’t working to the advantage of sellers. Instead, the fire sale pricing continues at a level that apparently is working as banks are unloading foreclosed homes ahead of an increasing wave to keep a floor under the potential for even deeper losses on loans.”
“The fact the median selling price so far on all homes that have sold this year in Manteca has now slipped to $253,000 would at first glance look like the market is in the 2002-03 price range where median house prices were between $237,892 and $267,030 on previously owned properties.”
“But that is only part of the story. The bottom of the market is reflecting pricing of the late-1990s. A 1,094-square-foot home at 324 S. Powers Ave. closed escrow this month for $100,000. A similar property sold in the same neighborhood for $92,000 in 1997.”
“A 1,010-square-foot home at 314 Dan St. closed escrow this month for $109,900. A similar sized home in the same neighborhood fetched $115,000 in 1998.”
The Sacramento Bee. “Most urban analysts believe Sacramento’s future is bright. But Sacramento-area residents know one thing for sure: The region can’t successfully grow until it gets through this housing slump. How long will that take?”
“Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com and a longtime housing market bear, says Sacramento should be back on its feet within a year. ‘We are at the beginning of the end of the Sacramento housing crash,’ Zandi told Home Front in an e-mail this week. ‘There are more house price declines to come, but the worst of the free fall in prices is at hand.’”
“Just days ago, Zandi told national media that new indicators - a five-month low in unsold new houses and an easing of home price declines in some parts of the nation - showed ‘the bottom of the housing market is coming into view.’”
“And that applies to Sacramento, Zandi told Home Front. But he offers some caveats. ‘There remain some serious threats to the outlook, including the ongoing credit crunch and weak job market,’ he said. ‘But with a bit of luck, including stable oil prices and good policymaking, the Sacramento housing market will find its footing by this time next year. And prices will resume rising again early in the next decade.’”
“Others, meanwhile, wait, wondering how much more prices will drop. Scott Thompson, a partner at Citrus Heights-based Mortgage Resolution Services, doesn’t see a bottom any time soon. Thompson believes the median sales price in Sacramento County - $208,750 last month for existing homes - is headed below $200,000.”
“‘I think we are plowing through all the good buyers who are enthusiastically in the market,’ he said. ‘We’re going to get to November and be at the end of the buyer pool.’”
‘Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s…and a longtime housing market bear’
The Sac Bee has been one of the better papers on this fiasco, but I have to disagree on this ‘longtime bear’ thing. Zandi is a commie piece of crap who, along with those morons at moodys, is one of the people who got us into this mess. When the pitchforks are handed out, he deserves a couple extra.
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“Zandi is a commie piece of crap”
May be, but he has been more sanguine than most of the Wall Street BSers.
It is hard to deny the power of the Wall Street propaganda machine in pumping up the bubbles, first the tech bubble and recently the housing bubble.
Jas
Zandhi the Chief Economist said/did WHAT to alert people?
I won the economics award at Junior College.
I’ve been my own Chief Economist since 1971.
I bought my real estate in 2000.
I sold my real estate in 2008.
I rent. In Mesa, 85213.
Zandhi was encouraging everyone to leverage themselves out the ying-yang during same time frame. Supposedly now as they face foreclosure/bankruptcy, they really care what HE says.
Almost every observation Mark Zandi makes about the housing market ends with something about the “light of the end of the tunnel.” He has been saying the same silly crap for months.
Given the ridiculous scheme to bail out homeowners Zandi proposed months ago, he is nothing more than a tool of the overpaid f-ck-ups who run Wall Street.
Keep the popcorn popping,
Red Baron
Zandi has been a vocal of proponent of socializing losses and privatizing gains. You would think someone who was an economist would give some thought to the unintended consequences of some of the remedies he has proposed, but evidently not.
Did it cost Zandi one red cent when the people that took his advice got hurt financially? Nope. He is still Thief Economist, I mean Chief Economist at Moodys.com. Something tells me he isn’t scrounging for his next meal.
Thief economist at Moodys.com? Why NYCityBoy, that’s redundant.
IAT
Some economists speak and write as though they never had a course in game theory, or macroeconomics for that matter. Anyone who has studied game theory and who took macro after the rational expectations revolution is either missing the problem of the “privatize profits, socialize losses” Wall Street business model, or else is playing dumb in order to please his corporate masters.
That thief ecnomist should have known as an economist, that buttom will be close when middle class American could be able to buy a house in Orange county, Ca, with his $50-$60000 yearly income, which, seems to me, maybe doable( if ever) in 2-3 years from today.
Christians aren’t perfect, they just forgive their own debts…
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“A 55-year-old man said he let a house in southern Corona go to foreclosure and bought another in Lake Elsinore, lowering his monthly payments from $5,200 to $2,100. He wanted to remain anonymous because what he did ‘could be construed as fraud,’ he said.”
“His Christian beliefs told him lying was wrong, and his parents had taught him to pay his debts, he said.”
“‘The only way I can justify it (lying to his lender) is that I think a lot of people made a lot of money selling bad mortgages to anyone who walked in the door,’ he said.”
Anyone want to better this 55 year old is a republican?
He’s a Clownifornian; which is much worse.
California’s bible belt runs from Bakersfield to Stockton, or thereabouts…
The residue of dust-bowl Arkies & Okies.
A much denser population of evangs, than anywhere else in the Golden State.
A more intense Bible Belt is in the high desert of Californnia. Ridgecrest has more churches per capita than any other California area. When I started working as an engineer at China Lake in 1985 I was shocked that the community also has the most Masters degrees and Phds per capita.
I concluded that 6 days a week the folks follow the reality of mathematics, physics, and chemistry, but on the 7th day they toss reason aside.
I recall before one test flight the group I was working in had a prayer breakfast. They were essentially praying that the mathematical equations were correct! I will never forget that.
And we all know that California, the largest center of mortgage fraud, is loaded with Republicans. These partisan comments, running both ways, are just so stupid.
The stupidity of the housing mania did not discriminate based on race, creed, sexual orientation or political affiliation. All groups got in the act so quit making yourself look dumb by implying otherwise.
Apparently a handful here have deep-seated issues and can’t help themselves… More’s the pity.
NYCityBoy - Agreed. Yup, all were greedy. Creedy is OK. Has nothing to do with Okies, people’s Sunday (or Saturday or Monday) habits…
Iftheshoefits…. yes, it is a pity.
Wasn’t it Bill Clinton’s signature, in late 1999, that repealed the Glass-Steagall act (1933)? This allowed commercial banks to create CDO’s and SIV’s. Setting the stage for the biggest credit collapse since the great depression. Me thinks stupidity and greed crosses party lines on a regular basis.
>>Wasn’t it Bill Clinton’s signature, in late 1999, that repealed the Glass-Steagall act (1933)?
Yes.
However, the “Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Services Modernization Act”, as it was called, was sponsored by Republicans in the House and Senate.
>>Me thinks stupidity and greed crosses party lines on a regular basis.
Spoken like a true Republican. (Or one of those self-described “independents” who always vote Republican.)
Sponsored by Republicans? who signed it? Didn’t he also sign the community re-investment act? which was sponsored by Democrats and pushed by groups like ACORN, Obamas old stomping ground. There’s a lot of blame to spread around, buddy. The perps are on both sides of the aisle.
Both parties get a slap for rolling back Glass Steagle
The Community re investment act goes back to 77, Clinton made some changes but banks should not be able to discriminate based on where you live, which is just code for what your race is. It didn’t have a thing to do with subprime. Securitization or the offloading of risk is the #1 culprit in this matter. My take on it was that banks had to prove that any person with income x and downpayment of y could get a loan of z regardless of what neighborhood they lived in. I see no problem with that.
“Anyone want to better this 55 year old is a republican”?
What in the hell would that have to do with anything? You party hacks will never get it.
“Forgive us our debts…”
Line from The Lord’s Prayer
holy crap!
They have an out, Chapter 23 Bankruptcy
..as we forgive our debtors….
Don’t Catholics say “trespassers”? Bet there are enough of those too, either squatting or stealing the copper pipes!
I rest my case that evangelical/fundamentalists pass judgment on others and rationalize their own immoral behavior. Time to read “Elmer Gantry” again.
“I rest my case that evangelical/fundamentalists pass judgment on others and rationalize their own immoral behavior. ”
If you spend a lot of energy judging others, you don’t have a lot left for yourself. I have some relatives who are missionaries, but they look to themselves first for improvement and seek first to forgive others, and they are very humble. I do not trust people who do it the other way around. Gotta look to yourself first.
Leaving the Republican issue aside, it *would* be interesting to know if the 55 year old rationalizer espouses “personal responsibility” based set of political beliefs.
Ella… Good for your missionary relatives. Seriously.
And, to put it another way, it is a lot easier if not cowardly to criticize others, especially groups that are labeled, than turning inward and… improving… yourself. That is one way wealth can be spread.
Here endeth the mini-sermon.
These are the lessons I’m working on in my life right now.
You are so right. Don’t go pointing out the splinter in your neighbor’s eye when you have a board sticking out of your own eye.
>it is a lot easier if not cowardly to criticize others
Is this a criticism of the original comment, and if so does that make you cowardly?
Note: I am not criticizing you. The madness stops here.
Thankfully McCaine didn’t pick Huckleberry for the VP.Then you would have to pass a religeous test to get a loan. hehehehehehe
This will be happening more and more as people can’t afford their skyrocketing mortgages and bail. They’ll do anything to get a nice house with a size and mortgage they can manage. I’m sure hundreds, if not thousands of others have done it as well, but they just won’t admit. Remember how I posted about how my friend in Detroit had many neighbors in her very nice neighborhood had taken out lines of credit on their homes’ equity, cashed in the LOC’s, and then just disappeared ? I believe I posted that sometime last summer or early fall, 2007. We will all do what we figure we need to do to survive economically.
I am very concerned about the economy as a whole getting far worse if H. Gustav hits as hard as they think it’s going to. I am also very, very surprised that they’re practically cancelling the Republican convention because of it. Seems like a total overreaction to me.
>>I rest my case that evangelical/fundamentalists pass judgment on others and rationalize their own immoral behavior. Time to read “Elmer Gantry” again.
People should practice what they preach. Especially those who claim to be living to a higher standard than the rest of us.
>>People should practice what they preach…
I meant that in support of the original comment, which I think was insightful.
My father was a victim of theft from an ordained minister in the 1970s. A “Reverend” Maxwell. $24,000 worth of business equipment into that guy’s station wagon, and not to be seen again.
I’ve been an atheist long before that, but the incident made my case stronger that religionists who are dishonest have an “out” - forgiveness from their imaginary friend.
Atheists do not have an out. It’s no wonder that less than 1% of the prison population in the U.S. are atheists while over 99% believe in God. http://holysmoke.org/icr-pri.htm
Forgive Us Our Debts
The Intergenerational Dangers of Fiscal Irresponsibility
* Andrew Yarrow
In this immensely timely book, Andrew Yarrow brings the sometimes eye-glazing discussion of national debt down to earth, explaining in accessible terms why federal debt is rising (and will soon rise much faster), what effects it may have on Americans if debt is not brought under control, why our government borrows, and what it will take to pay it all back.
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““Some homeowners in the area have gone months without paying their mortgages and have yet to receive a foreclosure notice…”
A friend’s sister & husband in Simi Valley have decided to foreclose and move out with him in his parents’ home. They stooped making payment a month or two ago. My advice is to stay as long as they are not fored out by the lender(s). Some people are too nice and leave after 2-3 months of not making the payments.
Jas
I know one family that hasn’t made a payment in 13 or 14 months. No notice of default filed.
Are they at least putting the money into savings that they are scamming out of the system? I hope so but I doubt it.
Isn’t there a defense of “laches” in contract law, which basically means that if a party doesn’t bring a claim in a reasonable amount of time they then lose the claim? It works something like a statute of limitations.
Does failure to pay a mortgage get fought out in contract law?
Yes and yes. Problem is, it doesn’t matter how long the bank waits, the buyer’s NEVER going to able to pay. Now, a better strategy might be for the buyer’s cousin, errr, I mean “total stranger”, to enter the property, change the utilities to his name, pay the property taxes for 5 years and see if the bank doesn’t foreclose, giving him a shot at adverse possession…
Sounds like there has never been a better time to stop paying your mortgage.
Kinda makes ya feel like a sucker, doesn’t it?
Kinda makes me feel like a sucka when I make rent pronto.
Today, at Escala near BobHope/GeraldFord st..2 yrs ago the $1.7+ homes that were gorgeous, are now $1.3.
And, 7 lots sold, 8 homes built in 27 home gated dev, and nothing being built And on top of that there are 2 that fell out of escrow to the same buyer AND there are no model homes.
Now wouldn’t you think that until ALL lots have been bought/paid for/closed escrow, wouldn’t you as the dev STill have your decorated model homes intact for all to see, so you could sell ALL the lots? Well, the 3 model homes say Private homes do not disturb now, and walking around the 1 home in escrow, empty, and half finished and the 2 that fell out of escrow w/o furnishings..it was difficult to see the house in an enticing way. I mean, if I am going to fork out 30% down + full payment upfront for the Upgrades, I want to see what I could make my shangrila into. Not use my designer strained imagination.
The gay group following me around were saying the same thing, too bad they “couldn’t see the Finished product”.
Lets hope after a year they have ZERO cc debt..and everything else paid off…and enough cash to start a new business…..god why am i so unlucky?
“‘It’s not just that home prices have fallen,’ he said. ‘It’s the fact that so much money has been withdrawn. That’s really what kept the economy going for so long - people being able to take money out of their homes and spend it.’”
“Financial innovation”… is to housing.
What oxygen…is to a fire.
What are the banks going to do with those repossessed home ATM’s? Sell them for “s crap” to China?
And this is the reason why the economy has to tank. There isn’t another asset class that can be inflated to the degree housing was that would float the economy a bit longer. Housing was special because everyone needs a place to live (had the chance to buy in to the bubble) and it consumes such a large portion of our monthly budgets (it’s expensive and inflation allows a lot of borrowing against the asset). After stimulating the economy by allowing people to borrow X * $100k, it’s not like a beanie baby bubble would compensate.
Getting rid of all penalties, repayment requirements and “hardship” excuses on withdrawal of money from tax advantaged retirement accounts might do it. I don’t think it will happen. It would be poitical suicide to suggest it too seriously. It wouldn’t last for long, but it could put the collapse off for a year or two.
Loan-Fallout has the half-life of a generation…
“‘It’s not just that home prices have fallen,’ he said. ‘It’s the fact that so much money has been withdrawn. That’s really what kept the economy going for so long - people being able to take money out of their homes and spend it.’”
Restate the obvious, why don’t ya.
“Sometimes the first duty of intelligent men is the restatement of the obvious.”
Eric Blair
Restatement of the obvious most assuredly is the first duty of a HBB poster.
Sometimes the obvious is so obvious it needs to be restated just to remind folks of root causes, of central issues.
It was obvious people were spending money they didn’t have and it was obvious this could not go on forever thus it was obvious it would all come to an very unpleasant end.
Why should I listen to you? I know what I am doing. FB.
“Sometimes the first duty of intelligent men is the restatement of the obvious.”
It’s only obvious to the intelligent people. The sheeple, or the ones who need to hear it the most, never listen anyway.
I would say the first duty of intelligent persons is that we’re all sheeple, at one point or another. The moment you think that you can’t ever be deceived, be it by your superior intellect, or your direct channel to the Almighty, or whatever…
All people are not created sheeple.
“All sheep are created equal. Some are more equal than others.”
- Eric Blair (George Orwell)
“I would say the first duty of intelligent persons is that we’re all sheeple, at one point or another”
iftheshoefits, you’ve got it. When I think I’ve got it all figured out is just when I am at the greatest risk of making my biggest mistakes.
I’ve never met a human being that hasn’t ever thought himself or herself to be genuinely superior to some other group that has them particularly vexed. I’ve certainly fallen into the trap. Fortunately most of us on further reflection will usually cool our self-righteous heels.
Those that don’t and are truly serious have taken the first step in the direction of either Jonestown or Auschwitz or the Gulag (they’re all the same place, ultimately). The only difference is the particular cult of belief. Thankfully again, most don’t get very far before they find themselves hoisted by their own petard, one way or another. Others, do great harm.
iftheshoetfits
Thanks, that was eloquent. “Further reflection” does indeed add to wisdom.
And no, we don’t sit around the house burning incense all day.
I have made, and continue to make, stupid decisions on a regular basis. The difference between me and so many around me is that I know that I am the one that should pay for my stupid decisions. And I do. I could have more money, more friends, more of almost everything if I didn’t make stupid decisions. But then again, that’s life. It is the “victims” that pi$$ me off.
Yep we’re all equal??
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‘I would say the local economy is in a recession right now,’ said Alan Gin…
This guy was denying the recession until very recently. SD and SoCal have been in recession since July of 2007. Guys at UCLA Andersen Forecast are even worse. Amazing that these guys get quoted.
Jas
Even more amazing they still have jobs.
It is probably more important to be regularly quoted in the MSM than to get your forecasts correct, especially when pretending you were right all along is always an option down the road.
I was waiting for the day when Alan Gin would have to eat his words. He finally poked his head out of his [office].
If I recall right, Victory Gin is a foul smelling, hard to swallow concoction that leaves tears in a person’s eyes.
In the Manteca/Merced/Modesto Axis of Excess, frogs were inserted into the slowly heated pot, years ago…
The Celebrated Jumping Frogs of Stanislaus County
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“‘This is an incredibly serious problem and getting worse,’ said Rep. Dennis Cardoza, D-Merced. ‘For us, this is as devastating as Hurricane Katrina. … If it had happened in one week, the federal government would have sent in Army troops to help us, but it happened over time’ so the impact isn’t widely understood.”
or:
The Celebrated Jumping Fraud of Stanislaus County?
Or, the Asses of Excess?
IAT
Sorry Dennis, but the federal troops of which you refer, appear to be slightly occuppied on another 12 billion dollar a month Real Estate/ Land deal in Iraq.
And the way that this BUST is going…it appears like Suzanne could have RESEARCHED this one TOO …
“…We’re going to get to November and be at the end of the buyer pool.’”
Isn’t December the month when most family’s pack up & move to a new location? I mean the kids do have 2 weeks off at X-mas to acclimate to the new city & school right?…Right?
“Carlin said he considers a house an investment and wants one with resale value.”
“‘Once I buy a house, I will make a definite effort not to monitor housing prices for my own peace of mind,’ he said.”
Now that’s what I call an investment strategy!!!
Later, Carlin listed other anti-price decline news blocking methods he will use…..such as limo tint all his suv and house windows so he will not see any foreclosure or priced reduced signs, smash all his tv’s & radios, never answer the phone or emails or read newspapers, stick his fingers in his ears and go lalalalala if anybody around him is talking about it. ‘What….me worry?’ he said.
“‘I always wanted to be a homeowner and now it is finally possible,’ said Michael Carlin, a 29-year-old Corona school teacher.
I wonder if Carlin’s teaching methods reflect his propensity for avoiding his financial condition. Boys and girls; we are here to learn about current events, but if you don’t like current events turn on your ipod and listen to your favorite songs because it really doesn’t matter what’s going on.
Carlin type teachers and MTV are the reason we are going to h-ll.
Manteca stuck a bucket of lard foreclosures into a frying pan and adjusted the gas to maximum output, to bettor tempt the maxim that for every action, there is an equal reaction…
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“Homes are now selling every 6.2 hours in Manteca. It is a torrid pace even surpassing the go-go days of the housing bubble that is fueled by one thing and one thing only - housing prices too tempting to resist.”
OK Trust me now when I tell you that nobody knows how low housing prices will go.
That is Bernanke’s nightmare.
We are supposed to frolic in the sun, amused and oblivious, as our little blue marble sails headlong in space.
I’m gonna go frolic in the river with the fishes…
Thousands of 1/2 inch to 1 inch trout, just hanging out.
My cousin lives on Evans Island in Prince William Sound, Alaska
He works for State of Alaska
Fish hatchery
Salmon
Halibut
Caught a nice little 18″ brown trout from Lake Ontario this week. For the first time in weeks, I didn’t catch any round gobies, which are the latest invasive species that makes fishing less pleasurable. At least they eat the zebra mussels, which were the invasive species prior to the gobies. Payback! Invasive species are now attacking invasive species.
Although I firmly believe in doing nothing serious till this time next year,as in purchasing real estate, I drove around yesterday/today looking at properties.
It all started when…I was looking at rental condo/houses and then stumbled upon that Open House thingy. I was doomed. I found a 2/2 condo, completely redone,windows too, and it was very veddy nice. But at 495k, it shared its garage.
I don’t think so.
Then I discovered this jewel, old lady died, the place was a time warp, MINT mint condition. Not a dirty spot to be found.
The listing sheet said 295k, 2/2 +dbl gar,last month it was 359k.
Then the HOA fees and the Indian Lease was total $550 mo.
I still like that one, but really, Not till it goes down minimum to 150k, well really less.
Then today driving around homes that were brand new and had 439k but summer sizzle special was 239k
But this was really not in the better parts of the desert. Nice, but WINDY.
It hasn’t gone down fast enough or low enough yet for the desert.
It’s A Mountain Of Foreclosures In California
(insert creepy appropriate music here)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_0GekZl7YA
This is exactly why current sales numbers, along with other included sales are overstated in real numbers. One sale, one foreclosure in the pipeline.
===========================
“The abusers are homeowners who could afford their mortgage payments but didn’t want to keep a house whose value had dropped below what was owed on it. On the loan application, they led the lender to believe they intended to put a tenant in the first house so they could afford the two mortgages. But once escrow closed on the new house’s purchase, they stopped making payments on the first house, letting it go into foreclosure.”
The fraud never stops . Boy it was real intelligent for the politicians to
remove the tax on forgiven debt . When are these clowns going to realize that the housing boom was a speculation bubble and not Americans trying to get the dream of home ownership to have a place to live for 10 to 20 years . The only answer for why people were going on houses they could not afford was it was a sure win investment of “real estate always goes up “,and let the house make money for them .
‘A different breed of advice
A delay in the foreclosure process has raised the prospect of analysts encouraging homeowners to stop paying their mortgages.
Several counselors are starting to offer that advice to homeowners who are “upside down,” meaning that they owe more than the value of their home, said Nathan Moeder, a principal with The London Group, a San Diego real estate firm.
Whether homeowners are actually heeding the advice to intentionally enter foreclosure is unclear, but that sort of counsel is certainly gaining prevalence.
“Foreclosure is the right thing” for everybody who is struggling to make the house payment, Su said.
Other organizations, such as Del Rio’s Community HousingWorks, advise homeowners to try and stay in the house by working toward a loan modification that makes payments affordable.’
Advice needed:
We have friends who have a Homeland Security issue which is preventing them from paying their mortgage. They live in North County San Diego, and until recently, he worked on both sides of the Mexican border. He had his green card application revoked due to violating a rule of which they were unaware, and is now stranded indefinitely in Tijuana. She and the kids are here, suddenly lacking the income stream needed to keep paying off their home.
Is it better for them to (1) sit and wait for foreclosure, (2) sell short and move (and lose a great deal of home improvement money in the process), (3) hand the keys back to the bank and move away (again losing a large investment of time and money) or (4) seek a loan modification (or other forbearance) given the change in their household earnings capacity?
A realtor told them to just sit tight until foreclosure day, but my gut says option (4) is preferable. Any insight from those of you who are more familiar with such choices than I am would be deeply appreciated.
G/S/ProB:
Family Law viewpoint -
She and the kids should reunite with dad in TJ and let the house go. By continuing to live here, she is inviting arrest for herself should he sneak in to visit. There are public schools and free healthcare in Baja (I used to live in Mexicali).
Some things just cannot be fixed. At this point, family relations are the most important. Please do not listen to the hispanic realtors - many of them are currently being investigated for fraud & conspiracy.
~Misstrial
Wanted to add that it is unlikely (although possible) that the mother makes enough income to qualify for a loan modification. Chances are, she’s a stay-at-home mom (???) or if she works, she earns a low-income - too low to be approved in today’s lending environment.
I have seen many, many parents such as these, and I can tell you what I tell them: “Your responsibility now is to the kids. Whatever the circumstances are now, at one point in time you chose to have them and now ‘in the best interest of the children’ will be paramount in your life if you wish to maintain custody.”
The above quote becomes particularly important in this situation since one parent is a citizen of another country and who has Homeland Security issues. I take this to mean that the father has a criminal history or has done something to attract the attention of DHS which can never be good. In any event, it would be foolish of him to put his family under official scrutiny just so that the wife can continue to live in the US.
I have seen this very situation many many times and I am aware of the reluctance of hispanic women to go to or return to Mexico. They really like it here..the shopping..the access to credit…cars…legal rights non-existent in Mexico.
It would be best for this family to be together in Mexico.
Sorry.
~Misstrial
I have seen many, many parents such as these, and I can tell you what I tell them: “Your responsibility now is to the kids.
Your first responsibility is ALWAYS to your children, from the time you conceive them, in my book. That means doing your utmost to provide for them and treat them and their mother with dignity, love, and respect.
Maybe he should make a run for it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCwrdqGrxBU
It totally p!sses me off when people come up here and try to do things the right way get punished and people who totally flaunt the law get away with it.
I wonder why the husband did not apply for legal residency when he married (assuming) a US citizen?
Unless she is not here legally either, which could be their situation, I don’t know.
In any case, lots of illegals have returned to Mexico, namely the state of Sonora, and have brought the spoils of equity cash-out/or cash-back at closing with them.
They’re now living like kings in Mexico.
~Misstrial
She is a foreign national as well who recently became a citizen after a waiting period. According to the version of the story I heard, they did not realize that he was not allowed to work in Tijuana and live here under his green card application status. I realize that it is everyone’s personal duty to know the laws that apply to their situations, but on a practical level, most of us who have not studied the law have gaps in our knowledge of the laws that govern our lives.
The tragedy is that before this detainment issue came up, they were an economically viable two-income couple producing something of positive value. It seems our immigration policy is not very good at discriminating between immigrants who bring something of value to our society from those who do not.
Immigration is a vexing issue. If there were no immigrants, would native born persons fill in the gaps? Judging from the research on wage impacts of immigration, the answer is yes; native born workers are harmed by immigration. Indeed, the more disadvantaged were harmed first, but the harm is making its way up the occupational ladder.
Thus, from a moral point of view, I think before we try to get the government to develop a way to discern which immigrants are which, it’d be nice if *our* government (i.e., us voters) first made sure equally productive native-born workers were not undercut by immigrant labor, illegal or otherwise. Welcoming those of other lands should not result in lower native born wages or job opportunities.
IAT
Hey, find the law where it says people must pay their mortgages.
I’m sorry I cannot comment unless I see the Purchase Agreement and the Loan Application/Agreement.
But, yes, I agree with you that performance is required for contracts, especially for mortages.
G/S/ProB:
The green card is a work permit and not a residency permit/visa. That snafu is probably what did them in. But, after living in Mexicali, I can assure you that the average Mexican know the difference between the two.
~Misstrial
Correction: The green card *is* a work and residency permit.
~Misstrial
FYI:
After applying for a “green card” one must never leave the U.S. unless one receives ‘advanced parole’ from DHS.
Merely taking a day trip across the US/Canada or Mexico border WILL invalidate your application for permanent residency (Green Card). It is considered abandonment of the application when you leave the USA without advanced parole (petition then approval from DHS).
Thank you for that
~Misstrial
But, but, I thought the homeowners were victims! We need to pass additional stimulus and bailouts NOW! We must preserve housing prices at all costs! LOL.
“‘I think we are plowing through all the good buyers who are enthusiastically in the market,’ he said. ‘We’re going to get to November and be at the end of the buyer pool.’”
That’s why these realtors are so worried about the end to down payment assistance. Without creative financing, to put unqualified buyers into houses, their running out of suckers that believed the hype about it being a great time to buy.
“‘Many of these buyers have the ability to qualify for loans and make payments on safe, fixed-rate mortgages. Unfortunately, few have the funds necessary for the down payment or closing costs,’ Amador said.”
If you can’t scrape together 3% of the purchase price to buy a home with an FHA mortgage, you have no business buying a home.
What will be interesting to see is how many of the “bargains” purchased in late 2007 and early 2008 using FHA mortgages with downpayment assistance become foreclosures by 2012.
Keep the popcorn popping,
Red Baron
That’s what I”m expecting. When we were selling earlier this year, we had people interested in our house who were 100% financed. A lot of people who were 100% at a time when the market was only starting to drop are going to be in big trouble in the next few years.
Some 2008 loans should be seasoned now I’d love to know how many first payment defaults we have. I suspect a lot of these homes where bought as foreclosures by flippers that then tried to sell them. I’ve seen a few on the market that are obviously foreclosure flips in my area.
Needless to say until I see 20% become the norm again I’m not buying.
That’s what I”m thinking. End those down payment assistance programs, you take away a lot of buyers. Which lowers the housing prices even more. Sadly that also lowers the commission on a sale. I wonder how long a lot of realtors try to hang onto the realtor business? With the price of homes coming down and fewer qualified buyers, that’s gotta make real estate a tough business.
I’m so curious to see how things unfold after October. I’ve seen a few homes actually raise their asking price in the last week, which seems a little foolish. In the coming months we can look forward to the results of the end of the down payment assistance program, really crappy Christmas sales which will probably lead to more layoffs, maybe we’ll get a run on Wamu by then (or some other major bank), and I believe house sales are usually a bit low during the winter months.
“I wonder how long a lot of realtors try to hang onto the realtor business? With the price of homes coming down and fewer qualified buyers, that’s gotta make real estate a tough business.”
Yeah, and when they’re forced to bail, where do they go? In this economy, what type of job can a failed Realtor qualify for?
Good businesses to be in now is the REPO and collection business. Also, the bail bond business is going gangbusters. XRealtors and realtwhores would fit right in there.Oh, I forgot pole dancers for the more pretty fit ones. hehehehehehe
Making calls on overdue mortgage payments to their former customers on behalf of the lenders they steered their clients to get that 100 percent loan with the fraudulent documentation, so they could move that 3-furnace house pos in the first place ? I think ? They’re already good at yapping on the phone. LOL.
repo and collection biz?
YIkes, had a friend who did that and the depression factor amongst the call staff was incredible. Apparently, THEN- 90s, the true stories were really really bad.
She was good, but quit that one.
“‘It’s not even volume anymore. It’s a mountain of foreclosures. … There’s no comparison in history,’ said Ramsey Su, a real estate investor in San Diego who used to run a brokerage firm that sold foreclosures.”
Who is brave or foolish enough to buy now in San Diego? And where is the downside to seeing what effect a ‘mountain of foreclosures’ with ‘no comparison in history’ will have on prices going forward?
Parabolic curves, whether upward or downward, continue forever. Right?
“Buy when every one else is selling…”
Everyone else is not selling. Foreclosures and walkaways are piling up faster than the lenders can sell them, especially at above-market prices. I am happy to wait until the market gets to some semblance of equilibrium, which entails lower prices than the ones which currently are holding back the 11+ month flood level of supply in current inventory. I believe this does not come close to reflecting recent foreclosures, many of which I am assume do not show up yet on the MLS.
Jim Cramer says BUY the homebuilders now. ‘We have hit the bottom’. They will pull out the third quarter of next year. Sorry but I can’t make myself pull the trigger.
Cramer also said buy Bear Stearns just before it collapsed.
How many false bottom calls does Cramer get to make before the world roundly ignores him?
He always wanted to be a FB/Homedebtor. Congrats shit-for-brains.
He always wanted to be a FB/Homedebtor. Congrats shat-for-brains.
“‘We have 19.5 square feet [of retail space] for every man, woman and child in the United States. That’s a crazy number,’ he said. ‘As long as our economy booms you can support that, but when the economy goes down … do you need 12 shoe stores in every mall? … Do you need eight jewelry stores? I don’t think so.’”
That is indeed crazy. Add to that, candle-making and scrap-booking boutiques, Christmas shoppes…oh, that reminds me! Yesterday at a yard sale down the road I got a giant box of really neat antique Christmas ornaments, hand-blown glass baubles of birds, some frogs, Santas, little animals, with the gilting and dainty hand-painted pink and silver and blue details, all carefully wrapped up in fragile yellowed tissue-paper. They came from the people’s great-grandma’s estate and had been in the attic for decades. I don’t know about valuations for these sorts of things, I get stuff because I like it and want to use it myself, but even I know these things would probably be pretty valuable to some obsessive collector or other. I’m just going to enjoy and use them. I paid a buck.
I forgot my point. Maybe it was that Christmas shoppes are stupid.
Oh no! The mother from the movie “Falling Down” has died? That makes me sad.
Hahahaha!
Me, too. I’m gonna go cry now.
“Christmas shoppes are stupid.”
__________ shoppes are usually stupid.
ye olde ____________shoppes even more so.
Except if the words “candy” or “ice-cream” are involved. They are the exception that proves the rule.
‘Except if the words “candy” or “ice-cream” are involved.’
Oh, you are so right! Anything with candy or ice-cream in it can be forgiven for anything, even the most errant kitschiness and sappiness–it just don’t matter; the power of ice-cream and candy triumphs.
Wow wow wow! The bears have come a long way. It’s been a wait but when it finally decided to tank, it tanked hard!!!
I bought in Sac in 2001. A house 2 doors down (200 more square feet) is for sale for 40k less than what I bought mine for. I sold in 2003 strictly for relocation purposes - now OC.
Good job Ben, you’ve been hanging in there strong all this time and I appreciate it.
Hang in there bears, it’s not time yet.
“Hang in there bears, it’s not time yet.”
It better not be. In Eureka, we will soon be the highest priced market in the state, as we’ve only fallen 10% with the median home price at $303,500. Places like Monterey county, Sonoma county, and San Diego county were twice that in 2005, but now are close to that median as well. I have no intention of buying until (if) prices drop back into the upper $100s or lower here.
$303,000! Ours (Vancouver) is, like, $900,000. Of course, our sales just suddenly slumped 2 months ago (and yes, there are realtors calling the bottom already).
Yesterday I saw a cute house in a not so great part of town. FSBO - written in ballpoint pen on the sign tacked on the house: “offers above $750,000 considered”. Well, la-di-dah-di-dah. It made me laugh. 3/4 million dollars? Let me check my back pocket.
The end is not near - for those in Vancouver…..
Should I make a sandwich board to wear that says “the beginning is nigh”? Between that and my sharpened crayon, I should become an instant media sensation, or at least a local character.
Ella, Write your check in Crayon.
That fsbo sign in scrawled ink deserves a crayoned check if ever I saw one!
I will make out a check issued by “the bank of ella” for ED$750,000 (Ella Dollars, support by the full faith and trust of…me)
There are dozens of Woodside Homes-type builders, all over the Central Valley.
This same very saga is set on repeat mode for every last one of them…
========================================
“The worst home-building climate in decades is buffeting another developer, forcing Woodside Homes into bankruptcy court in Riverside.”
‘The company has subdivisions throughout California, including three in Fresno and Clovis and five in Visalia and Tulare. A group of five insurance companies holding more than $155 million in notes filed an involuntary petition, asking a judge to force the builder into bankruptcy.”
–
‘For us, this is as devastating as Hurricane Katrina. … If it had happened in one week, the federal government would have sent in Army troops to help us, but it happened over time’
Yes, all these counties should be declared federal financial disaster areas (FFDAs). Pretty soon, all of AZ, CA, FL, NV, etc., would qualify as financial disaster zones. Federal disaster relief of $10K per person should be sent to these states to help people and create employment. We must do everything to prevent states from falling into depression. We need pre-emptive strikes.
Jas
-FFDAs
I laughed. I cried.
And only three years ago they were all a bunch of smarmy, wise-ass, financial jeniuses. And now it is everybody’s fault but their own.
Something seems so familiar about all of this. Oh yeah, because that is the process we are going through here in Fantasyland. Only we are still in the smarmy wise-ass phase. The “bail us out” phase is about 2 - 3 years away.
“Then construction of new homes stopped, and high-end appliance sales dried up, said Gilchri”
This is something I have been wondering about for a few years. One of the things “everyone knows” these days is that luxury items are recession proof. It’s one of those things people tell eachother at parties, and eveyone nods, if you know what I mean.
But, if the market for luxury goods is based on credit, it must be an inflated market? Or, is it really the case that since more wealth is becoming concentrated at the top (statistically - not making a political statement here), then that money is still available to luxury vendors?
The 3 things that have made me wonder about this are: 1. hearing that a billion dollars isn’t enough to make the Fortune 500 anymore; 2. watching my favourite dress shop introduce $600 dresses in the last few years, when $180 was their high end about 5 years ago; 3. noticing the cheapening of available luxury items like imacs, Louis Vuitton, world travel (not necessarily cheapening quality, just when everyone has them, they seem less like…luxuries)
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/26/books/review/Weber-t.html
True luxury items are recession-proof - it takes a depression to really kill sales of that stuff to the top 1% of the wealthy.
BUT. What we are seeing is the backlash from the faux-luxury “high end” products that were moving down into mass markets due to EZ-HELOC-Credit. Take high-end appliances, for example. Equity-rich future FBs were buying beyond their means, which created a bubble in high-end appliances. Certain Bar-B-Que and Range companies (think Viking) were able to create large new markets by selling pseudo-commercial cooking products at extreme prices to flippers and future FBs. That boom is now bust.
I think a lot of “luxury” goods companies are going to suffer because they pushed down-market to grow their businesses far beyond the true market size for their price point.
Some money will still be available to support luxury goods sales, just at a far, far lower volume than the vendors have become accustomed to.
Proles drink Victory Gin, to drown their sorrows as they sink down the memory hole…
“The intensity of the housing downturn has overshadowed any gains by other sectors, dispelling the notion that San Diego’s economy was too diverse to suffer much in a recession. Gin used to endorse that theory. Not anymore.”
“‘It turns out the damage from housing, the loss of employment from housing, is much more severe than I would have thought,’ he said.”
Not surprising,as this was the last few “industries” left in the US.
Everybody should read “1984″ at least once a year. Orwell was a prophetic genius.
Orwell was a prophetic genius
Not a prophet more of a historian. Using war and hatred of a foreign enemy to distract the masses is not new, nor is torture with the goal of turning people, especially prominent people. Killing prominent people turns them into martyrs, but turning them turns them into propaganda tools and walking terror weopons. The next level thinks if they can turn him what chance do I have.
Still a great yearly read along with Animal Farm. I think if Americans were forced to read these yearly even republicans would think twice about supporting a gov that has spied without judicial oversite, rendered people to other countries for torture, jailed US citizens without charges or access to a lawyer, and of course started wars to help their political and financial cause.
>> ““Some homeowners in the area have gone months without paying their mortgages and have yet to receive a foreclosure notice;… .”
Of those my bet is that with many of those, nobody even knows who the noteholder is anymore. And many of those who actually do own the property–forget being swamped–actually don’t even know they own it.
Every man for himself in this.
I have a hot date with a spry 1,500 year old Californian…
Adios for now~
Oh, you and your old chicks. I bet she has green hair and really super bumpy feet. Try not to slobber too much, my good man.
…because old wood chicks, just like young meat chicks, like it when you play hard to get.
“A mountain of foreclosures in California”
When I left CA, I wanted to live near the mountains. Who would have known I could have still lived near the mountains in an area with only big hills (Mt. Diablo). Anyhow, now live right at the foot of real mountains (Sandias). Much prettier than the foreclosures.
Eureka the highest priced area? Must be some good money in that weed funny stuff.
–
The mountain in my backyard, blue-saphire color and rich in copper, is not mortgaged and cannot be foreclosed upon. Not all Californicators went nuts.
Jas
I hate Milpitas/SJ area. Just soul-sucking.
Jas: Tehachapi does have beautiful mtns. Congrats on no mortgage. I always enjoyed seeing Tehachapi when I passed through the area.
DR Horton’s big 143Million deal of 2,000 acres in the desert,
well, stumbled across this huge development today and drove around. When I get the photos downloaded will send them to
Mr HBB himself to post.
I counted 13 homes for rent, out of 120 homes, about 30 still unsold from DR, and 1 in foreclosure. The entire dev would be terrific, but for the WIND>
Did I say Winddddddddddd..Oh yes, the homes are tiny, the amount and cost of the total infrastructure, and moving of all the rocks water run off. The place looks good, it has general appeal but for the Windddddd and the smallish homes on zero lot size.
Exteriors are nice. 2 car garages the size of Yari’s or Yugos.
Careful if you have been drinking, parking that SUV.
Slabs everywhere the eye could see, and grading that took place but was stopped dead in its tracks.
“His Christian beliefs told him lying was wrong, and his parents had taught him to pay his debts, he said.”
“‘The only way I can justify it (lying to his lender) is that I think a lot of people made a lot of money selling bad mortgages to anyone who walked in the door,’ he said.”
oh no its that “Moral Hazard” thing again
Some off the cuff observations on my travels around this summer;
Looks like homes in Beaverton OR are about the same price as Ahwatukie AZ but AZ has bigger lot sizes. Both about 155 per square foot.
Homes in Thousand Oaks CA go for at least 250 per square foot sometimes much more. These are prices for about 2000 square foot homes.
For about the same pay I think I’ll just stay in AZ for awhile. So ends my summer of job interviews and then declining offers baised on the cost of housing or value of housing (5000 square foot lot sizes in Beaverton just too small). Not that I was planning on buying but maybe next year or the year after? who knows?
I don’t know how anyone can hire in Thouand Oaks without paying more… alot more. Portland yea if you like the rain its OK not for me though. I kinda like cactus. Besides summers almost over in Phoenix and then it gets really nice.
Right on! Fence sitting has a lot of intangible advantages doesn’t it? Great to be a spectator and chomp on popcorn, as Neil does. Scary thing is to take the plunge and then have to worry that you may fall in the category of being a knife catcher. If that side of the fence is uncertain while fence sitting is certain, I’d prefer fence sitting.
Yes the weather is about to change in Phoenix. On the average the low temps will be in the high 60s sometime this month, and it’s going to feel good to do a morning bikeride. In January it would have to be an afternoon bikeride.
It was nice chatting with you at Starbucks on Saturday there in Chandler.
Hi Bill anytime you’re out Phoenix way and want to talk about home prices , the future of home prices and how speculators in flipping homes are toast let me know. You have many good ideas and observations.
Cheers
When it becomes cheaper to buy than it is to rent, people will buy again. Until then, nothing much will really change.
Pundits and talking heads can jibberjabber all they want, this fundamental has never been wrong. So, if the powers that be want the housing market to get up off the floor instead of crashing through it, they have to figure out a way to make it cheaper to buy than it is to rent (again). Or at least seem like it.
Frankly, I don’t see how - we’re out of bubbles we can blow to make the sheeple feel well off enough to buy houses. Gonna have to wait for generational amnesia to set in once again before we can try another bubble like this last one.