Bits Bucket For December 18, 2008
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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I’d say FIRST but that would be lame.
I hope Ben took a GPS with him…he might not be able to see his house when he returns.
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!
No kidding, it took me 7 hours to get home yesterday. I would have just stayed at work but it was my 20th anniversary.
I’ve never seen a snowfall like this in 20 years in the AV. It looks like Idahole in January out there.
Hey, yeah, your anniversary! I remember when you was all askin’ advice from us wise and darling gals here on the HBB as to what to get Mrs. Dude.
What did you get her? And did your anniversary go well? *wink, wink, nudge *
Second that. What did you get her for your anniversary? And what did she get you?
Happy anniversary, dude & Mrs. dude!
See below… search term platinum.
Snow up over my knees (bfd, I’m 5′1″) but still, it was enough to inspire me to dig out my old rock skis and hike up the side of my mountain. Got a honest three minute run in my own backyard. YEEEEOOOOWWW!!! Dogs were in Heaven following me down, horses merely puzzled by the sight. Looks like my aquifer is safe for another year or ten….
‘Snow up over my knees (bfd, I’m 5′1″) but still, it was enough to inspire me to dig out my old rock skis and hike up the side of my mountain.’
What a darling lil’ midget you must have been! I hope you had on a pom-pon hat. I’m gointer put on one, in a bit, when I’m done ‘working’, and run out and play in the snow too! I started out the day snowed in and now I’m REALLY snowed in. I love snow!
Also, ahansen, very glad to hear you’re recovered enough to be prancing around in the snow. That’s good news.
ahansen,
I would also like to add how glad I am to hear you are well enough to play with your dogs and horses.
Mmmwah, you guys. Thanks.
Dude -H A P P Y 20th A N I V E R S A R Y!
The best is yet to come.
ahansen - I second Olympiagal’s recovery comment. It is nice to hear your doing so well.
Thanks A.W.
dude,
Happy Anniversay to you and your wife.
Got around 8 inches, here. Plows and sand trucks have been out en masse.
I’m snowed in, more or less. ‘Working’ from home, in my jammies! And a Santa hat, of course.
Oh, look, almost 11. According to my rigorously followed schedule it will then be time for more raspberry cocoa and yawning. At 11:30, it time to watch the cute little birds at the bird feeder.
I may have mentioned this once before, but since you’re ‘working’ from home, I think a video conference in monkey-faced “jammies” is in order. Do that, and let us know how it turns out.
Well, I guess I have discussed my favorite pink and smiling monkey-headed flannel jammies overmuch, evidently, since they have entered the common discourse.
I’ll try to do better and talk about gold or shorting oil or whatever. Wise subjects, is what I’m saying.
But you can understand why I do, ’cause they’s such great jammies.
Do you even wear jammies, bear? ‘Cause you ARE Bigfoot, right?
Don’t deceive us, we love you anyway.
OGal, I don’t know if Bear is “bigfoot” but he said,
“Got around 8 inches, here. Plows and sand trucks have been out en masse.”
I think the plows and sand trucks were an addition to his sentence. Just to throw us off.
snicker.
‘I think the plows and sand trucks were an addition to his sentence. Just to throw us off.
snicker.’
* Nyuk, nyuk!*
Gosh. Now I REALLY want a PNW meet-up!
Hahahahaha!
“Do you even wear jammies, bear? ‘Cause you ARE Bigfoot, right?”
I’m sorry to report I’m NOT Bigfoot. If I were, I’d negotiate my surrender for a handsome cash reward in these lean time. Or wait, I AM Bigfoot, and for a small sum, I will go running through your neighborhood to impress your friends for you. Deal?
PS- Baaaaaaad desertdweller…naughty.
To quote an LA county offical, “What’s a sand truck?”
Have to say it Montana, everything before BUT is a lie.
Looks like old Madeoff has f’d up some RE deals in N.Y. I guess some of the ‘no brainer’ deals turned out to be just that…
Madoff Scandal Shaking Real Estate Industry…
“You have a lot of wealthy people who made a lot of money on handshakes,” said Mark S. Weiss, a commercial real estate broker at Newmark Knight Frank, where several brokers had invested heavily with Mr. Madoff. There was “something about this person, pedigree and reputation that inspired trust,” he said.
Across the city, industry executives said deals had been scuttled or jeopardized because of the scandal. Residential brokers are taking calls from Madoff investors who have had to put their apartments on the market. Many developers had pledged their investments with Mr. Madoff as collateral for projects, and are now worried that their banks will call in their loans.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/18/business/18brokers.html?ref=business
When a “wealthy person” shakes your hand, immediately check your back pocket for your wallet!
After shaking hands with Madoff, be sure to count your fingers.
Count your rings and check your pocket for your wallet.
Apparently all Madoff fund payouts over the last 6 years whether dividends or principal will have to be repaid to the funds.
That hurts more than the original loss.
If they’re dividends, at least the suckers will be able to file amended tax returns to get back the taxes they paid on those amounts.
Especially in New York, that could amount to a significant percentage.
Principal loss due to theft can also be deducted from your tax returns.
That sounds like a lot of fun. WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!
Shades of all those dot-commers who exercised their options, and waited for a year to get lower cap-gains. Stock became worthless but the IRS had to be paid millions.
BWAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
As part of the bailout/TARP law passed a couple of months ago, those dot commers are forgiven for taxes that they owed but did not pay. In some cases those taxes were in the 6 figures.
Morale hazards abound these days.
Anna Eshoo (D-”Silicon Valley”) was the Queen of Moral Hazard on that one.
Even those who should have known better, in her world view, couldn’t be expected to have been responsible.
Using the word “losers” is too kind.
Recession: When the money goes, so does the toxic wife
Ha! Good article. People like that deserve each other.
It’s been explained to me that the British are much more up front about their marriage “arrangements” than we are, and have been for years. I doubt these guys didn’t know what they were getting into.
And yes, there were gold-diggers -before- the boom. Sad stuff.
It’s what happens when you go hidin’ “stuff”.
A casual check of recent Match.com listings in the Orlando / Tampa area shows a spiked increase in the profiles of these freshly divorced / seperated “used Trophy Wives”….albeit on a lesser scale of “wealth”…but with the same demanding expectations of everyone surrounding them. They might be beautiful, but they ain’t very nice.
I saw the entitlement behaviors of these b!itches first-hand here in Central Florida, and, with some schadenfraude, am glad to see them have to “eat their own cake”.
The common demographic with these types of people is easy to spot. Its disgusting.
As we go through the difficult times ahead, I expect to see some of these cougar-types reluctantly lower their “expectations” of what to consider in their next
money ticketmate. These gold-digger types are also vampires…They will just move ahead and find someone of lesser means to suck dry.Just having a decent, stable job with reasonable cashflow will probably move many men of “more average” looks and modest means way up on the hottness ladder of dating.
JMHO:)
“Just remember that no matter how beautiful she is, there is always someone, somewhere who is tired of her BS.”
Bumper sticker, Tampa, Fl. 2005
Roidy
Zing! Awesome!
They will re-invent themselves…Morph into the baseball cap, sweat shirt wearing simpleton until the parasite latches on to the next host via marriage…
Most pithy comment on the HBB, ever!
Most accurate too!
Most profound comment…
…in the corner mirror…he see’s she’s standing behind him.
I don’t disagree with a single thing he said!
Nice Dave. You wouldn’t happen to be a biologist would you?
No…I just see enough of them around here to recognize what they will do…:) Quite frankly, the old fart swinging d$#^s have it coming thinking they have something other than their money to offer…
Faster already posted this article about a week ago and didn’t we all already excoriate the idjits? On BOTH sides of the ‘toxic gold-digger/sad newly-poor guy’ transaction?
I’m just gonna go find my original post, and repost it here.
Anyway, my point was, what sorta dumb-a*ss man didn’t know what he was getting? Fact is, they didn’t CARE about her ’sweet spirit’ or lack of one, as the hottie bottie was enough. Until the money ran out.
As I said before, ‘I hope I don’t choke from all the laughing’.
You’re actually arguing for less vitriol because we poured some before?!?
Wow, just wow.
Do you not see the SANTA HAT?! *gestures wildly at fluffy head * And the jingle-bell necklace? *gestures wildly at torso *
It’s Christmas, man! I say, about half-vitriol, until right after the Bearded Fat Red Man lays out the presents, and then, once they’s in my mitts, we all escalate right back up to full power.
“gestures wildly at torso” - ZOMG torrents PLZ!!
Don’t let the little head do the thinking for the big head.
RE: A casual check of recent Match.com listings
I luv the profiles of the skanks who list “MONEY” & “POWER”
as their primary turn-on’s.
Talk about a blatant advertising.
MIght as well bum wiggle a charging bull with a red hanky emblazed with the words, “Gold Digger” attached to yer azz.
Reminds me of one of the funniest quips I’ve read here, from back in 2005 or 2006, I think in reference to boats:
If it flies, floats or f***s, rent it.
HD wrote:
I luv the profiles of the skanks who list “MONEY” & “POWER”
as their primary turn-on’s.
================
And how many men are looking for “young and attractive”?????
Same exact thing.
+1
Trumps current trophy wife was asked if she was with The Donald because he was wealthy. She paused, asked the reporter, “Would he be with me if I were not beautiful?”
Touche.
How many women say “Height and Weight proportional”? Proportional to what?
The common demographic with these types of people is easy to spot. Its disgusting.
As we go through the difficult times ahead, I expect to see some of these cougar-types reluctantly lower their “expectations” of what to consider in their next money ticket mate. These gold-digger types are also vampires…They will just move ahead and find someone of lesser means to suck dry.
=============
Can’t we say the same thing about very wealthy men who believe they are **entitled** to marry young, beautiful women?
For men, their “societal value” is wealth and status. For women, their “societal value” is youth and beauty.
Each has a price, and neither the men nor the women are victims in these “arrangements”. They both get what they pay for.
Trophy wives will just jump ship in order to latch onto a more successful rich hubby. The internet match sites will be lit up as the hunters/huntresses will be stalking out their prey, trophy ex-wives looking for a more successful model to test drive.
Wow,
Not one peep out of any of you about what it says about the male who picks these women. You would think, oh wait, those type of men don’t think with their brains, they are just victims… Sob, sob, sob, my heart bleeds for those poor idiot men.
Amen SFOgal.
Seems our 4m men forgot that part about “mens” choices.
So long as she looks good, who the heck cares, it makes ‘me’ look tough and masculine-like to my business associates.
Poo.
I’m delighted for the guys who care more about looks than brains or companionship or character to take themselves out of the market by marrying the bimbos. Makes it easier to sort out the nice guys from the shallow ones.
“Makes it easier to sort out the nice guys from the shallow ones.”
Even with fewer shallow ones, they still usually get first dibs on the female types while the nice guys are still stuck being “friends.”
Yeah, I’m a bit jaded today about the whole thing. It’s all hoz’ fault though…..he started it last night.
+1 Polly
Makes it easier to sort out the nice guys from the shallow ones.
Yep. The built-in BS detector generally works if you are “real” yourself. Spend your time being fake and you will attract people just like you.
I always feel sorry for the kids caught in the cross fire, though. Wish the shallow gene would some how prevent reproduction.
I for one have no use for the phony, plastic assed boring bimbos. Not impressed, plus why is that most of them walk around with a pouty pissed off scowl look on their face?
I too, hate the phony, princess money vampire type. It’s a shame that seems be the majority of available single women in this country.
You are looking in the wrong places eco.
+ 1 SFgal…
+2
They are easy to spot. They apply the war paint thick n heavy, with a putty knife. Look like clowns, actually.
Not true SFgal…Scroll up to my post…I blasted the old fart “swinging D#@*S”…
scdave,
My apologies.
RE: Sob, sob, sob, my heart bleeds for those poor idiot men.
Yes, Yes! Idiot men!
Heather Mills certainly deserved her $125mil from that blathering old sot, Sir Paul McCartney.
Wasn’t she the Sixth Beatle?
“Not one peep out of any of you about what it says about the male who picks these women. You would think, oh wait, those type of men don’t think with their brains, they are just victims… Sob, sob, sob, my heart bleeds for those poor idiot men.”
Point taken. But IMO it’s fair to say some of these gold digging females are great actresses and can be quite charming until AFTER the nuptuals too.
I find it interesting that when a guy gets $$ reamed by a gold digger, he “deserves” what he got, but if a guy asks for a pre-nup, he’s an unloving scumbag.
DOC
There are plenty of male actors, that pretend they are sweet, caring, and loving until after the nupitals. Then they kick and beat the crap out of their wife. Then the wife is blamed for marrying the jerk, got what she deserved etc..
Both men and women can be jerks.
yikes
Fun read. But the author sounds like she’s just resentful she can’t pull it off, too. Someone needs to remind her that there’s no free lunch….
“Someone needs to remind her that there’s no free lunch….”
I’m happy to be plain, simple and non-status seeking. Just remember, somewhere out there is a trophy wife who has to sleep with Donald Trump. That’s quite the cost for a “free lunch.”
Give me drugz quick, I can’t get that trumpsex image thingy out of my head. Ewwwwwwwwwww What DOES his hair do all that time- what 2 minutes, give or take, ewwwww I can’t avoid the trainwreck…thanks a bunch. hehehe
My point exactly.
The author puts women into two categories; whore or madonna.
To bad Detroit doesn’t have anyone like this fellow running the show any more. The nut-less wonders in charge are expert at whining though.
“Let them fail; let everybody fail. I made my fortune when I had nothing to start with, by myself and my own ideas. Let other people do the same thing. If I lose everything in the collapse of our financial structure, I will start in at the beginning and build it up again.” –Henry Ford, 1934
“You can have it in any size you what…. as long as it is a McMansion”
I don’t think the “new” home builders ever went the Henry Ford School of Economics.
You can even get stucco in a McMansion
“Let them fail; let everybody fail.”
or
Let them file; let everybody file.
Henry Ford inventor of the Bar-b-Q & the NFL “tail-gate” party!
“He specified how to make the wood crates that outside suppliers used to ship him parts. Then he disassembled the crates and used the preformed wood pieces in the bodies of his cars. He also used wood scraps to make charcoal and sold it under the brand name Kingsford, still a leading brand of charcoal.”
Dang. I had no idea that Henry Ford was the ‘genius’ behind Kingsford Charcoal!
This blog is soooo educational.
Hwy 50,
What’s more ( and I’ve always loved that telling ) is that Henry very specifically told the bearing vendor that the crates had to be __X__X__ or they didn’t have a deal! I understand that was what comprised the floor boards in the early models.
Spinning in his grave no doubt.
‘Spinning in his grave no doubt.’
When I hear that phrase I always think of those Hamilton Beach chicken rotisseries, where you jam the prong in the neck and also in the, um, other end, and then get to twirling it over heat.
That’s why the rotisserie I got as a present a few years ago is still sitting in my garage, unopened.
Wow, that’s a pretty amazing attention to efficiency! No wonder he did so well in his day.
Detroit circa December 2008:
“Bail us out now, or we will shut down all our plants, idle all our workers and blame it on noncompliant politicians.”
Maybe the truth is that they have to shut down - regardless of the status of any bailout? Maybe they simply can’t sell their product - and just want to spin it?
Chrysler quits building cars tomorrow - possibly forever?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081218/ap_on_bi_ge/meltdown_autos
In my mind…I see Lucy & Ethel…making pies on a conveyor belt.
Henry Ford was an amazing person. The Baby Boomer generation is also amazing, but for the wrong reasons.
The worst generation ever?
And yes, I am barely a part of it (born in 1963).
Ah, the NY Times just had an article about how those of us born between 1958 and 1964 are the Dumbest Generation, statistically speaking, based on SAT scores, college and career choices. Neither Baby Boomers or GenXers, we’re Generation Jones. Kind of like the middle child.
Edwards Deming is the man that turned Toyota into the leader it is today.
An American who approached the Big 3 with his ideas for higher quality and better working conditions. They told him to take a hike. He did. Straight to Toyota.
I love that story. It never gets old, does it?
Ah…Demming.
Now there’s one spinning in his grave.
Demming insisted on quality input, talking with suppliers, integration/cooperation, benchmarking best practices.
He’d scream bloody murder if he knew they have an Demming award day in Japan!
Sigh,
Leigh
I was Dr. Deming’s TA at NYU before he died. He was an adjunct, flew in twice a week well into his 80s. Japan had the Deming award even then. Dr. D never mentioned it.
My vote for his most memorable quotation:
“The critical things about any organization are unknown, and unknowable.”
Being a mathematician and statistician par excellence, he had a profound understanding of limiting cases, and the grey areas in which CEOs operate. Character is the last frontier. It is the unknown that drives the vitality or debasement of any company. Organization. Church. You get the idea.
He was a great man, he was soft spoken, he was gracious, and he was humble.
He changed my framework of reference forever.
I think he would be proud of you, Jane. That was lovely.
Manhattan prices down 20% since summer, a report will show.
http://weblogs.amny.com/entertainment/urbanite/blog/2008/12/_with_manhattan_real_estate.html
Looks like the last domino has fallen. And if affluent people aren’t being priced out of Manhattan, expect Brooklyn prices to fall even more.
We started late and are way behind, but we move fast in this town, so don’t count us out in the race to record the greatest loss.
Unbelievable that it’s taken this long.
Let’s see:
- DJIA at the same levels as mid 1998.
- NYC job market much WORSE than in ‘98.
- Huge increase in apartment supply compared to ‘98, due to huge building binge in early-mid 2000’s.
And yet apartment prices and rents are 2, 3, 4, …? times what they were in 1998?
I’m going to enjoy this crash like no other. I can’t wait to see what Bloombag is going to say, and what the rest of the country is going to reply.
Taint enough, we will need more ‘change’…
Obama May Seek a Stimulus Plan Exceeding $850 Billion (Update1) Barack Obama may ask Congress next year to approve a stimulus plan of around $850 billion, an amount that has grown as the U.S. economy sinks deeper into recession, an adviser to the president-elect said.
This will be an epic pork battle.
I have a feeling the DC area have a lot of cash coming in from every special interest group there ever was.
“epic pork battle” LOL!
The likes of which we have -never- seen before. It’s just a little startling to me to see SO many people of late SO willing to trade celebrity for politics? Fran Drescher? Please tell me they’re kidding, right?
Obviously they’ve seen where the ‘real’ money IS!
‘Fran Drescher? Please tell me they’re kidding, right’?
I can’t imagine how anyone could listen to that voice, like nails on a chalk board to me.
I can’t imagine how anyone could listen to that voice Like it or not, she gets your attention.
She used a fake voice for her TV show. Her real voice is easier to listen to, but it still has the nasal quality.
I’ll put up a youtube link in a second..
Here’s a youtube (audio only) of a radio interview from September 2008. It’s still annoying, but it won’t break any windows.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ydh_9yWaSFM
..
Err…ummm…
I don’t think that Fran Drescher’s voice was numbered among her other, more obvious, “qualities”:)
..
Maybe we should all go to DC and just stand around to see if the stuff just flutters down.
Just say, ‘i am a lobbyist’. Gimme.
Love it! We’ll be the “HBB” lobby, and nobody will know what we stand for. Just stand in line, handing out a little money in exchange for much larger amounts of money.
Sounds like a nice line of work, no?
Privatize the gains and scialize the losses to taxpayers who are broke.I see a bad business model here.
I see a bad business model here ??
Yep…unintended consequences…
“Yep…unintended consequences…”
You mean kooks like me, who vows not to buy myself deeper into this morass by eschewing all manner of material purchases?
No way will I make a purchase that will tie me down. Any extra bucks are going to travel. Let ‘em try to tax my memories.
“Let ‘em try to tax my memories.”
Quit giving them ideas!
Let ‘em try to tax my memories ??
Good one Edge…Kinda thinking on the same lines as you…
Any extra bucks are going to travel.
Exactly what I have been doing. Air fare, hotels or second apartment, rental cars, food. The alternative is much higher taxes. I’d rather have the corporation get my money than to have government use it for influence peddling and getting more powerful.
Go to boston dot com. On the front page is a link to the PDF of the MA projects they will propose to the Feds. Our GOv is best buds with Obama so we should be in!
It shows (almost) everything wrong with the way government operates. The Pork is truly amazing and shows how we are just going to waste a trillion dollars….. $28 million for Nantucket airport, $100’s of millions for “streetscapes” Mos tof it is total cr@@ and the politicians are proud of it.
Great find.
What concerns me is any project that is going to make the government bigger going forward. A new water heater for a school is one thing, you buy it, and your humming again. But $350k to make a database of courses available at institutions statewide? This is something new that makes the state government a little bigger than it was before the stimulus.
I’m can handle fixing what’s broke, but let’s not make new things to break.
(unless it’s public transportation, or green initiatives)
My counterpart on city govt side told me this morning that the Sen. Schumer is canvassing city offices in NYS for previously designed but unfunded projects. It appears DC is really going to finance all this. This is good. Very good.
Ex, did you forget to wink about this being good????
Ok… It’s GREAT!
I figured. Watching the pols in MA and NY scramble to find projects/pork reminds me of one of my favorite MP scenes.
Bring out your dead!!! Bring out your Dead!!!
or in this case. “Bring out you Dead (projects). Bring out the ones you wouldn’t pay for with your own money. Bring out the ones the taxpayers wouldn’t vote for. Bring out the ones you’d only do if someone else was paying for….
I’m a construction and engineering guy advancing my stock in trade, not an MD hoping and praying for casualties.
Are you a government construction and engineering guy?
Because, if so, it would explain a lot of your behavior here.
By the way, now that the government hobgoblin doesn’t work anymore, what will the next boogeyman be and how long will it take to wear that one out?
Have you ever had to meet a payroll?
How about borrow money to start a business?
Ever had to work more than 35 or 40 hours a week?
Nights? Weekends? Holidays? On vacation?
Sell yourself?
Your vision?
Ever been creative?
Taken big risks, financial and otherwise, to make yourself more employable, your business more profitable, your staff better workers?
Ever had to develop co-workers? Hire many of them? Ever had all of them depending on you to perform? Ever had to let anyone go for underperformance?
Deliver projects ahead of schedule? On time? At or under budget? Been financially penalized if not?
Do you know what a budget is? If you do, what happens to you and your co-workers if you are unable to make a budget? Anything? Or do you just ask for more, next year, next quarter, next time?
Have you ever had to rely on your own initiative to get ahead? Ever considered yourself lucky, too?
Ever worked closely with anyone that has influenced your life in a profound way? Anyone incredibly talented and generous?
I know very well some who have made their life’s work suckling on the civil government teat…
And you know what?
They sound just like you.
True that SF Jack.
Boogeyman here, hobgoblin there, here hob, there a goblin, everywhere a hobgoblin.
Wow, SF.
Have **YOU** ever worked in public industry? Have YOU ever had to put your life in danger (like firefighters and cops and military personnel) to make a tiny fraction of what CEOs and other parasites make?
With all due respect, all of your questions above show a tremendous amount of ignorance about what government employees do and the circumstances in which they do it.
Try DOING it so you will know what you are talking about. It’s obvious you are totally uninformed about public service.
BTW, I’ve worked in both public and private industry. The government jobs, as a rule, have much higher requirements WRT education and experience; and they are much more likely to promote people based on their abilities, rather than promoting those who are related to or personally favored by the higher-ups.
LOL - you make me laugh!
The assumption that I have to have worked in public jobs is ridiculous.
I am very familiar with all kinds of roles in government, from Capitol Hill all the way down to the clowns running legacy departments in San Francisco City Hall. “Parasites” would be a very good description for many of them.
Also, please read what I have written more carefully.
I purposefully said “civil government” to make a distinction from both military and paramilitary organizations, the latter of which includes firefighting and police units.
And as for your claims regarding nepotism in municipal advancement versus the private sector, that is not only entertaining, but unquestionably galling.
I am sure there are some great public sector workers - I just have not met very many.
$28 million for Nantucket airport
There is a joke here some where…
I miss aladinsane.
Second that for sure.
Aladinsane.. where are you? stuck in a snow drift?
Me too.
Sniff,
Leigh
“…where are you? stuck in a snow drift?”
Nope, he’s busy calculating the snow pack to water run-off conversion rate…I wonder if he’s apt to cut down a really big Sequoia tree to see when in history there was a drought that is worse than the one we are currently trying to survive.
aLADINSANE…what if there is a black hole at the center of the milkyway?…in 100 years…99.92% of six billion people will die …of natural causes: internal rusting.
Damn free radicals!
He’s out covering his losses from shorting the mellow yellow. He’s somewhere in Europe getting his overseas Gold back to cover.
Just kidding, I really do miss his posts and opinions.
Count me as one who’s thrilled the gold-dealer is gone.
Not every thread turns into a gold name-calling thread now. We can actually talk about other interesting things.
Hasta luego, don’t hurry back!
There was an airport in Nantucket
That raked in the bucks by the bucket
The cost overruns
Were plenty of fun
As the contractors knew how to f*** it, erm, I mean, milk the system.
Hey, it’s a first effort. Be kind.
I don’t miss the predictions about water, food and the complete collapse of Western society.
Other than that, alad is entertaining.
I miss something…What happened to Alad ?
We are the poorer for lad’s leaving. His perspective provided balance to the testosterone toxicity and pseudointellectual arrogance that occasionally runs rampant through the blog. And for those clever enough to see through his avatar, there was much useful information to be deciphered from his posts. Hint: it had nothing to do with Au.
His arrogance wasn’t pseudo-intellectual?!?
ROTFLMAO
Whatever you’re smokin’, don’t bogart it. I want some too!
I enjoyed the lad’s input. I must have missed the meltdown.
I hope he comes back.
Mike
“We can actually talk about other interesting things.”
LIke Jas’s anti-American rants, for instance?
I’m betting that he will be back after a month or two. It was obvious a meltdown was in progress when he started to morph into Mr. I’ve got cash and I made a killing shorting gold plus Mr. I was at a retreat with a bunch of priests.
Life has a rhythm to it.
‘I’m betting that he will be back after a month or two.’
I just think it’s hard to break an addiction, is all. I betcha he starts for the computer, stops, chews his nails, tries to distract himself, breaks down for ‘just a quick lurk’, and ‘just this once’.
Hahahahaha! Take it from me, ‘Queen of Eagerly Embraced and Fully-Utilized Addictive Stuff’.
Don’t underestimate the power of psychosis.
‘Don’t underestimate the power of psychosis.’
Oh, I don’t!
*cackles wildly, turns to alternate-personality, demands, ‘did you hear that funny thing he said? Alternate-personality replies ’shut up or I’m leaving!’*
How do you spell Nantucket?
Skagway, perhaps!
I know, I know its a stretch. Be nice.
I don’t mind if they spend $28M on the Nantucket airport as long as they spend part of it forcing the sitcom “Wings” back on the air to remake the final season.
“The electronic wristlets will be worn until the jokes improve!”
That was a good show. Fay, Antonio and Lowell were my favorite characters.
Anybody know if any of this stimulus would be in checks sent directly to us like the last one?? I haven’t heard anything like that yet.
Nope, this is going to be an infrastructure/State Aid deal. Sorry but you’ll get 0 out of this and likely we will waste 40-50% of the trillion on completely unwarranted projects and general government waste.
What’s worse, losing $700B on tarp or $500B on this upcoming pork fest???
I forget which one of B.O.’s guys said it, may have been B.O. himself: “This is just the start of expenditures, we will set no limit to what we will spend, to get things going again.”
My bushel basket is all ready to be loaded up with twenties, fifties and hundreds.
Of course they will. If folks would look past the two party window dressing they would see a huge bureaucracy whose sole reason for existence is to protect big capital.
“an amount that has grown as the U.S. economy sinks deeper into recession”
I would say: an amount that has grown as the US dollar is plunging. With a few more weeks like this he will need a 2 trillion stimulus plan to do the same amount of work
and with four more years of Heliben at the helm, $850 billion is probably more like a household budget, instead of a national budget…
Lowering Expectations this morning….now its preserving the jobs
Obama advisers, including Christina Romer and Lawrence Summers, have been contacting economists in search of advice as they assemble a spending plan that would meet Obama’s goal of preserving or creating 2.5 million jobs over two years.
Is the Politicheskoye Buro still open for consulting business purposes?
It the plan is to merely “preserve” jobs, I do hope they manage to “preserve” more than just 2.5 million of them….
On deck for the new year…double digit unemployment:
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081218/BIZ/812180372/1001
“ZIRPtastic - The feeling of joy and bliss that overcomes the borrower of “free money” upon swapping US Dollar paper for something that will depreciate less.”
Cassandra
That whole post was awesome!
Is the dollar now the carry trade bitch?
Sorry Ben, my hand slipped…
I’m sure Ben forgives you.
This is an epic battle where we find out if Ben’s cat will really drink all the water in the pool.
Ben has a cat?! I love kitties! I hope he named it ‘Muffin’, or else ‘Kissyfur’. Those are good cat names.
I doubt the dollar was offended, so I don’t think he’ll mind.
How To Start A Ponzi Scheme
http://www.forbes.com/2008/12/17/madoff-ponzi-vader-fan-ii-in_jl_1217soapbox_inl.html?partner=yahootix
1) Establish a too-big-to-fail bank
2) Run it into the ground
3) Apply to Fed for $bns in below-market-interest loans
4) Recklessly gamble with the easy money
5) Lather, rinse, repeat
1.5) Collect bonus.
Jeez, how could you forget that…
I see some UBS big wigs are going to have to take MBS and CDO’s as their bonus, I guess if you bought the cr@@ you take the good and the bad. I sort of like this.
There seems to be a much better chance that some harebrained reflation scheme will reflate the value of MBS and CDO’s selling for a nickel on the dollar than that their value will drop all the way to zero. Where is the downside for the UBS big wigs, especially if they can help behind the scenes to push through the policy measures that make the MBS and CDO’s go up again?
Prof,
Agreed - if they ever pay off there will be an outcry over the “huge” bonuses they got. In the meantime they get them and no cash and have to play along with everyone else. Maybe just a little skin in the game might change some behavior, but I doubt it, esp. with the bailout and us tax $$ saving their a@@.
Sorry — also forgotten:
2) Run it into the ground
2.5) Collect bonus
3) Apply to Fed for $bns in below-market-interest loans
3.5) Collect bonus
4) Recklessly gamble with the easy money
4.5) Collect bonus
So I just completed road trip #1 of 2 from Austin to Seattle. I must certainly say that anyone who thinks we’re running out of room for houses in this country is crazy! Drive I-10 Westbound to LA then I-5 northbound and you’ll see tons and tons of open land. And lots of half-finished developments in the middle of nowhere.
DinOR, you mentioned the road conditions on I-5 the other day (I was reading too late to comment)…man was it bad on Sunday. I got stuck in Redding, CA, on Saturday night because I didn’t have chains for the moving truck (a 26 footer). Bought some Sunday morning and continued north. I-5 was just an ugly sheet of ice from south of Eugene to Salem. Even at 15mph it was incredibly dangerous. I’m planning on sending the city of Eugene a check for $10 with a letter saying I’d like to contribute to their fund for buying a salt truck. There’s just no excuse for the roads being that bad when it hadn’t snowed/rained in 12 hours!
So yeah, I’m technically a resident of Washington state now, though am back in Austin for a while before driving up with my truck and my dog. Anyone have suggestions on what to stop and see on the leisurely drive up??
One of the things that annoyed me the most of living in the PNW was the snow removal plans. Whatcom county for instance sold off ALL of their snow removal equipment in the early to mid 2000s. Of course the fall/winter of 2006 was particularly snowy and icy. I didn’t feel safe driving to work for about 8 days after one arctic blast.
Also the Canadians, literally only 20 miles away, who had worse conditions had proper plans for the weather and dealt with it accordingly.
Yeah, it’s all about how the city/state prepares, not really the conditions. I grew up in Chicago - I know good snow removal. Of course there were no issues on I-5 once in Washington state. I’m sure a lot of it is handled at the city level, but it seems to me that Oregon (specifically Eugene and Salem) just didn’t bring their ‘A’ game, if they even showed up at all.
Yeah, it’s all about how the city/state prepares, not really the conditions. I grew up in Chicago - I know good snow removal.
There’s a lot to complain about with Chicago city government, but thankfully snow removal isn’t an issue.
(I grew up right outside of Washington, DC, so I know bad snow removal.)
Wasn’t there a Chicago Mayor run out of office because of bad snow removal in the early 80’s?
In 1979, Mayor Michael Bilandic didn’t do such a great job w/ snow removal. His opponent in the next election, Jane Byrne, made it an issue — and Bilandic lost.
While I had nice things to say about our snow removal, city budget shortfalls may have a near-term impact. From two weeks ago:
Mayor Richard M. Daley said Tuesday that city crews will cut back on plowing side streets this winter in an effort to save money. The mayor said the city will only plow side streets during weekday union business hours this winter, rather than during overtime hours.
Let’s just say a whole lotta snow can fall during “overtime hours.”
Michael Bilandic. His successor, Jane Byrne, ran on the platform of Better Snow Removal for All Chicagoans.
It was Michael Bilandic in 1979.
Salt trucks may be as out of favor in Oregon… as I believe they are in parts of California.
They’ve been seen as harming the environment.
‘They’ve been seen as harming the environment.’
They DO. Whattaya mean ’seen as’?
Jeeze, man, you go chug a few cans of Morton’s and then go run away into the forest cheeping and see how good YOU do.
If you take I-10 all the way to LA, just go all the way to 405, take it north a couple miles, and visit the Getty museum. It’s free and one of the best things to see in LA in my opinion.
the Getty museum is great, but you need to make a reservation first, i believe
“If you take I-10 all the way to LA, just go all the way to 405, take it north a couple miles, and visit the Getty museum. It’s free and one of the best things to see in LA in my opinion.”
One of the problems visiting LA if you are a visitor is that the best places to see are all spread out all over the city/county and not concentrated in any one area. The Monumental historic LA exposition park/ history and science musuem is 2 miles south of dwtn and in a bad part of town besides. Universal studios is on the traffic choked 101 fwy 5 miles north of old hollywood and 10 miles NW of LA Dwtn. Huntington library and Art gallery is somewhere deep in Pasadena . Santa monica/venice/ malibu beaches are some ways west of dwtn and difficult to access due mainly to mind blowing traffic along the 405/10 fwys thru the LA westside. Disneyland is way down south in the OC.
LA is really bad for tourists unless you have the bucks to afford an expert cabbie who can whizz you around the traffic chokepoints and numerous bad sections of the city , or you are an expert experienced road traveler good with maps ,and already know the city somewhat. If you travel around the city by bus/metro U are up a creek.
At one time So Ca was fun for tourists (1960/70’s). When we take out of state family around to the traps and museums, they comment on the demographics, how fat the women are (not everyone is thin, blonde, and pretty) and the traffic is always part of their memories. What their brouchure propaganda says, never matches their experience.Truly, this place has sunk into a sewer and the freeways are parking lots.
The Gene Autry Museum, just off the 5 north of LA, is a cool tribute to Western-iana, One part of the museum is tribute to the tv/movie portion of western history. You might recognize your childhood bedspread!
But also some great western art.
Congrats on the move! Enjoy Seattle!
I’d go for the easterly route up through New Mexico, N Az, and eastern Utah. The Colorado Plateau is the most beautiful place on Earth, especially in winter.
Watch your speed driving through south-central Washington state. I received a ticket there earlier this year. Once the officer saw my Florida license it was all over.
I read a factoid: if you gave a 1/4 acre to every man, woman, and child in America, we would occupy half of Texas. I didn’t believe it, so I did the calculation myself.
Acres in Texas: 172044800
People in US: ~315 million (+/- 5 million including non-citizens)
315000000 * 0.25 / 172044800 = 0.45
oxide,
Kind of punches holes in the “running out of land” theory huh? Now add in Alaska and have some ‘real’ fun! ( I’ve always wanted my own County )
I do believe… that the furthest distance from a paved road ( in the Lower 48 ) IS… in Oregon!?
Wyoming.
Awesome! Let’s get started! I’ll do the killin’, you do the diggin’!
Now that is really special! What a factoid!
Water, water, water, water.
Did I forget to say, WATER?
Say, if that was sarcasm, you goin’ right to the head of the ‘killin’ line.
Frowny-face!
Aint’ nothing more important than water.
‘Aint’ nothing more important than water.’
Except for candy and boys.
But I’m still going to hunt you down, for disrespecting water.
drumminj,
Well, then I was right there with you! Yeah, unfortunately Oregon is about as prepared for snow as Ft. Lauderdale. I was on the way back from my first weekend drill w/ the Guard and thankfully there were plenty of able-bodied males along the way to help those stuck in ditches. ( In some twisted way these younger guys find it “fun” and a real challenge? )
‘This’ I understand on Hwy 140! I just wasn’t ready to see it on I-5? We had chains on from K’ Falls to White City and… I figured now that we’ve made Medford we ‘must’ be in the clear? Ha-ha-ha. Thankfully it’s very pretty country ( so the wife wasn’t that annoyed )
Sadly, I’ve never dealt with snow chains before, and there never was a place it made sense to “chain up” until it was too late. One doesn’t expect flat, straight stretches of the interstate to require chains. I literally saw only one big rig stop to put chains on….other than that, all of a sudden I realized most trucks had chains on except for me. Do they pull off to a truck stop and put them on there, perhaps?
Anyway, I do not wish to be in that situation ever again. Almost lost the back end of the truck at one spot, even though I was in low gear..just hit a perfect patch where the road had a slight curve and the conditions switched from having good grooves to being a sheet of ice. The lady in the BMW SUV facing the wrong way on the side of the road apparently didn’t get as lucky as I did :O
So, when I drive up with my 4×4 4Runner, when _SHOULD_ I put the chains on?
Speaking of chains..
Redwood country
when I drove a truck down from portland some years ago, I was told The Pass was closed unless you had chains( for UHAUL??don’t think so) so I veered way west to the Coast fwy, and drove through the BIG RED country. Forgot about those huge huge great Big Red Wood trees. You can also see Babe and Paul Bunyan.
So, just past Sacramento, go west and then north, through the wine country and up through Redwood country. See if you can drive through that tree. Anyone know if we are allowed to still drive through it? Keep those childhood photos of such.
I actually considered this path if I couldn’t get through the pass there in Northern CA. Instead I just went and bought chains for the UHAUL (well, really a Penske truck). Only $99 and I can return them after April since I didn’t use them (I still don’t understand that).
Anyone have suggestions on what to stop and see on the leisurely drive up?? For the next 3 weekends in Albuquerque, they are offering FREE rides on the Railrunner commuter train from Albuquerque to Santa Fe. Very scenic view the whole way.
have suggestions on what to stop and see on the leisurely drive up??
If you have the time head to San Diego and do the combination of Hwy #101 & #1…Hopefully you will catch decent weather…Make sure you do Hwy #1 from Morro Bay to San Francisco…Go over the Golden Gate Bridge and then head east towards San Rafael to hook back up with Hwy #5…I would normally say stay on #1 or #101 all the way to Washington but not this time of year…
Totally cool ride.
Is the northern ride closed this time of year, north of Santa Fe?
SC Dave, 101 1 is okay this time of year. Just not JanFeb.Wet.Very wet.
I get a little concerned about the ice above Crescent City but your likely correct in that December is okay…It can also get very windy on the Oregon coast this time of year…
Drove the combination of Highway 101 and Highway 1 a couple of years ago, from Marin to Newport Beach Oregon. Just beautiful.
I make the trip up the Oregon coast about three times a year….Some Family in Oregon..
Hey, place a sign on the the back of your vehicle:
Marin, CA…or…Bust!
That outta get a few honked horns!
i’d do a drive up the california coast and oregon coast….I did a great road trip along there last year and it was well worth the time, you have to see the redwoods. way better than the I-5 and you did that already. Oregon has some great wineries SW or portland…Dobbs winery..Mason Drouhin winery is great…amity winery near salem is cool with the bottling operation in the tasting room….or right along I-5 you could go to willamette valley vineyards north of eugene a bit..turner oregon i believe…some decent wine! you could see the spruce goose near the newburg oregon wineries too…definately worth a visit if you like old military planes. columbia river is nice from portland to yakima…but out of the way. next april i plan to drive the columbia as far as i can and check out winerys in eastern washington. try matthews in woodinville outside seattle…great wine!
I drove West across I-90 in Washington once where the ice was so thick the state patrolman seen on the other side couldn’t even stay on the road crown without slipping down.
I counted the accidents I passed successfully in 300 miles: 30
But, then an ambulance was coming up behind me so I changed lanes: unfortunately, I did it on a white bridge and white snow covering black ice so I spun it 180 and went from 50 to 0 in 3 ft, smacking one of those really neet 3 wire and wood post guard rails. The ambulance driver didn’t even glance aside as he slid past.
Dented 2 back corners for $2400 but could continue on my way, annoyed and chastened.
Deutsche takes penalty instead of bond call
By Paul J Davies in London and James Wilson in Frankfurt
Published: December 18 2008
“Deutsche Bank jolted bond and equity investors yesterday when it became the first big bank to say it would not repay €1bn ($1.4bn) of a particular kind of bond as expected in January.
The move raised fears about Deutsche’s capital strength and signalled a much higher likelihood that other banks would follow the example in not repaying so-called hybrid-capital bonds. This could in turn erode the market for hybrid capital deals, which are supposed to occupy a grey area between debt and equity. These instruments have been hugely important in squeezing extra funding into bank balance sheets since the financial crisis exploded….”
FT
So long Europe, its been good to know you…
Let’s be friends!
Is that the same sort of “grey area” as between…. debt people & half-debt people?
LOL puppies are less cruel also.
hoz,
This is the same “capital preservation mode” we’ve seen on several fronts. A number of REIT mgrs. are simply not distributing the dividends and letting their share price ( and the shareholders ) take a beating.
Ultimately they’ll -have- to pay out ( or face an equal tax bill ) but in the meantime they get to keep their jobs. I’m really torn on this one. Oh but don’t try this at home!
Bankers: “Let’s take some money from those who have never been a credit risk!” What are they going to do…pay cash?
“I’m incensed,” the 52-year-old Palo Alto, California, resident said. “I feel like they’re making a calculated decision to make me go away as a customer.”
“Citigroup spokesman Samuel Wang said in an e-mailed statement that the bank is adjusting rates for customers who haven’t been repriced in at least two years and that cardholders can choose not to accept the changes. If they do so, the bank can take the card away when it expires.”
Banks like giving you the news in e-mail…saves them $0.42 x 3 million!
Credit-Card Users Feel Pain as Banks Reap Gain From U.S. Cash :
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ap_9fTPViwzU&refer=home
The changes are angering customers like Craig Marx, who has had a Chase card for 10 years and recently saw his minimum monthly payments climb to 5 percent from 2 percent and a monthly $10 service charge added to his bill.
A monthly $10 service charge added to the bill? Yesterday the CC discussion was over a yearly $20/fee. But no CC is worth $120/yr for the privilege of having it.
Now that they have a new spigot dripping water, they will give successive small twists on the valve to wide open. Look for monthly $39 service charges, coming from a friendly CC bank near you.
In addition to the $120/year and the interest on it, this is a sneaky way to send a bill 12 times a year. The more bills sent, the greater the chance that their tricks will make a payment be “lost” or “late.” Then they can commence with Operation Nastygram and jack up the fees and interest rate.
I have Chase card. What if they pull this crap on me and I cancel the card? How much of a FICO hit would I take? Will my FICO stay high enough for a good interest rate on a home when the time comes?
And what if you have a $15K balance that you can’t pay off right away and you have to keep the card?
People with balances on CCs have their balls caught in a very tight vise, and the large CC banks know this.
Short term: The best pressure relief lies in the next ‘new terms option out’ notification. At that time, call the CC bank and tell them you want to opt out. You will keep your present terms at the risk of having your account closed, but at this point, a closed account (with the old terms) would be a good thing.
Long term: Smaller, solvent banks tend not to resort to squeezing people by the balls. For example, I have a CC with a small bank out of San Antonio, TX. This is a solvent bank, and I have never heard of them squeezing people’s balls. However, it is very difficult to get a CC account with this bank. These smaller, solvent banks actually perform very good diligence on new applicants, so people with shaky credit (or fraudsters) should not waste their time. Sometimes, a good credit, work, and honesty history is not good enough; you may have to apply once every year for some years to get an account opened.
Here is a link I use to get ratings on banks/insurance:
http://tinyurl.com/6roc32
I am not saying this the definitive link to get these ratings, perhaps others can post their favorite links?
Nice site - I like the detailed PDFs that you can download for each institution. However, there were a few that I could not find and I didn’t see a wild-card way to do it. I like Bankrate dot com’s Safe & Sound. It seems to have all institutio0ns, but lacks the detail that The Street offers.
“And what if you have a $15K balance that you can’t pay off right away and you have to keep the card?”
Opting out should mean that when they “close” your account, you can continue to pay it off under the old terms. That should mean the old minimum-payment calculation, and the old interest rate.
Note that you cannot make any new charges on the card, though, while you are paying it off under the old terms.
USAA sent out a notice that I got yesterday that the adjustable rate on my credit cards is changing so it will be at least 6% (currently there is no minimum and my rate is in the vicinity of 4%). I can decline the change and close out the account if I choose.
Interesting to see that thread from yesterday. I got a notice of a change in interest rates from Am Ex blue, but I never carry a balance on anything so I don’t care much. I’d consider changing my Am Ex to the one USAA sponsors, but it seems a little risky to have all credit card access limited to one company, though clearly a much better company than Citi.
By the way, I agree with the person yesterday who questioned paying bills on-line, but not to the same extent. I will pay the bills on-line, but only from my bank account, and I WILL NOT let them set up to just take the money when they want it. I get the bill. I look it over. Then I go to my bank account to make the payment. Letting the company just tell my bank how much they want this month and my bank hands it over? Total non-starter. And I have always refused to become an authorized/authenticated/whatever they call it user on paypal. They can have a credit card number, but not my bank account number. Actually, the first few times I got the e-mail about becoming authorized/authenticated/whatever they call it on paypal, I thought it was a phishing scam. I’m still not completely convinced it isn’t.
Same here. I get so much crap purporting to be e-bay or Pay Pal, but blow it away out of habit. So I find something to buy yesterday and whaddya know, they really did suspend my ebay acct. How’s a person supposed to know?
Paypal- have gotten a couple of “phishing scams” myself. No confirmation, but were unsolicited, and nothing noted on ebays site.
I will pay the bills on-line, but only from my bank account, and I WILL NOT let them set up to just take the money when they want it. I get the bill. I look it over.
We operate in a similar fashion — I transact a fair amount of business online, but never via automatic withdrawal.
I only use a credit card or debit card w/ Paypal; I’ve never auth.’ed my bank account there. Despite all of Paypal’s protestations, that’s certainly a place where I enjoy the fraud protections of a major credit card, just in case. (I actually disputed a charge once, when a web host tried to automatically roll over an annual payment. Visa took care of it pretty handily.)
First, I messed up and missed a payment to my local credit union. Zero lates, a balance that was some 7 times the credit card bill. They shut off access to ATM, credit card, checks, and transfers immediately. No notice. My card got declined so I paid cash, and figured the internet had gotten me again. With it shut off, their system wouldn’t let me pay my own bill with them, and it took 2 days each attempt to find out it denied.
Second, don’t ever use your paypal account anywhere else on the internet. People find security flaws in forum software, pull the users and passwords (most passwords are encrypted in the DB but it’s weak or they use lookup tables), then try them on paypal.
A 52-year old Palo Alto resident who carries a balance on his credit card? So much for the conventional wisdom that everyone in Palo Alto is rich and therefore its real estate is immune to decline.
By the way, the new DataQuick numbers are out for the Bay Area, and they look great!
November 2008 vs. November 2007, median sale price, includes both new and used houses and condos.
Alameda $356.5 vs. $565, -36.9%
Contra Costa $265 vs. $528.5, -49.9%
Marin $625 vs. $871, -28.2%
Napa $406.5 vs. $562, -27.7%
Santa Clara $450 vs. $678, -33.6%
San Francisco $648 vs. $814.75, -20.5%
San Mateo $580.5 vs. $780, -25.6%
Solano $234.5 vs. $375.55, -37.6%
Sonoma $310 vs. $470, -34%
Bay Area $350 vs $629, -44.4%
The pace of declines is brisk. For example, Santa Clara County’s median was at $505k two months earlier, therefore has dropped 11% in only two months. Layoffs seem to be gathering steam, which will help continue the downward pressure.
Even $450k is still a HUGE amount of money, a stretch even for the average two-income household with good jobs, especially now that those jobs are at risk for the next several years at least.
U.S. Links Iranian Bank To Fifth Avenue Building
By Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, December 18, 2008; Page A16
A Fifth Avenue building in Manhattan that houses a Charles Schwab branch, a trendy espresso boutique and Juicy Couture’s flagship store is secretly co-owned by an Iranian bank that helped finance that country’s nuclear program, the Justice Department alleged yesterday.
Justice is seeking to seize the share of the property and related bank accounts, charging that 40 percent of 650 Fifth Avenue has been co-owned by Iran’s Bank Melli for nearly two decades. That bank was previously designated by the Treasury Department as a key financier of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and a banker to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Quds Force, which has been linked to terrorist groups. ..”
NY cannot get a break.
“…the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Quds Force…”
In Wisconsin it is the cuds force playing cow pie bingo.
Hoz, we don’t have much in common, but I have tried cow tipping
Where I went to college, there was a pasture right next to the Dorms. Those cows were very light sleepers.
I never got one, but I once caused a stampede that flattened the better part of a small forest.
I never went out and tried, but I remember that drunks with poo-covered-shoes were pretty common. People who had actually managed to sneak up and tip a cow, I don’t remember any of those.
I never did quite understand the humor in animal cruelty. It seems to me that an animal of such large weight and mass could be injured by such a fall, or at least subject to senseless pain. “Haha, we’re drunk and stupid, let’s go hurt some cows.” Not funny.
I think it is time countries all over the world start looking for local US owned/financed properties that they can grab freely, citing this as a precedent. After all, the US runs the biggest terrorist organisation worldwide …
Ignore the bait. As my daddy once told me, “Never argue with fools as bystanders won’t know who the fool is.”
Nah, let’s turn up the volume:
“organization worldwide….called Israel”
“organization worldwide…the Pentagon”
… called WallStreet
Two decades?? Heckuva job there Brownie.
Baloney, I’m sure the timing is just to distract from the utter impotence of authorities in the whole Madoff affair. I’m sure they have known about this Iranian link for a while but have kept this card in their backpocket for use at a time like this.
This is not even remotely a big enough deal to distract people from Madoff. Madoff is going to be buzzing for ages. $50B has enough zeros. Even in NY it is real money.
“NY cannot get a break”
Uh, when’s the last time you used a product or service that originated from New York City?
I live in a state that makes milk, cheese, meat, ships, lawn mowers, snowblowers, paper products, boat engines, mining cranes, erection cranes, jet turbines, oil and gas turbines, military trucks, ice machines, electronic circuit boards, beer, corn, oats and alfalfa.
And that’s all just on my half of the state.
New York City is like a cancerous tumor that has to be fed with hundreds of blood vessels and veins that suck off valuable nutrients from the rest of the country.
In return for this, it gives us crappy financial products which we’ve now discovered aren’t worth half a damn.
We need to cut out the tumor…
Don’t forget apples and cheap wine! Both are huge industries.
Wow! There are vineyards in NYC?? I’ll have to check it out next time.
That bank is owned by their government and was established by same.
Which is the least bad currency into which savers can park their inflation-prone wealth?
That’s a hard one, since the world economy is so interconnected. For example, if the dollar tanks, it would end up taking many other currencies with it, which would ironically restore the dollar.
Debt cat bounce on Uncle Buck today?
Fedex just announced paycuts 100% across the board, from 20% for top tier down to the base 5% for the majority. And stopping 401(k) matching for the next year, no raises or bonuses for 12 months.
The economy really stinks. Thanks to all the greedy FBs that got us into this situation!
Me, I’m grateful to be employed and will redouble my efforts to stay that way. I want to hang on more than the folks bitching and moaning in the hallways right now.
100% paycut? That is kinda drastic…
haha, not that 100%. 100% meaning that everybody from the top mucky-muck to the bottom of the barrel part time dock workers all took a hit.
Ho ho ho Merry Christmas!
According to the release I read, the hourly employees will not take a pay cut. Just salaried.
As it should be. ALL in or not at All.
And it should be even, not a tiny bit on top and graduated to big on the bottom (tier that is).
They better have paycuts if they want to stay in business.
The wife of a couple we know, who live in Marin, reported talking to the multiple UPS guys in one truck who recently delivered a package.
Why three of them?
“It’s been that way since Thanksgiving; we are down 30,000 packages a day in our district from last year.”
I don’t know what the district is… Bay Area? North Bay? City and Marin?
Down 30,000 in any kind of a district, when you think about it, is certainly a lot.
FedEX /UPS… Ha, I sent a small package to Scotland…they wanted $148.00 USD…I emailed the customer…”Do you really need this in 48 hours for a $148.00 adder?”
“No, not really”
Also, “they” slam on the fuel surcharge when oil goes up within hours…but when oil prices fall…the engine has no reverse.
Maybe, “they” need to re-examine this everyone needs everything now model.
Hwy50,
LOL! I needed the smallest part for my Jag and had to call a dealer in Fife, WA. Anyway I said regular mail would be fine. Last time I went down that path the shipping was more than the part!
I imagine a LOT of us will be “re-examining” our need to have everything yesterday?
I often enjoy the anticipation, myself.
Sometimes, in the past when I was younger and foolisher*, I have wrapped up a present I already opened and then went and hid it again, for the pleasure of finding it and re-unwrapping it.
*Two weeks ago.
LOL… That long ago??
Yep. It only takes two weeks for me to forget what was in there. One of the many benefits of untreated ADD.
Don’t think of it as a pay cut. It’s more like returning it back to what it should have been prior to the bubble of cash flow because of all the business that increased due to the credit bubble.
I believe my salary in higher education will need to go down at some point, which is precisely why I’ve been saving 60% of my income each year I’ve been employed.
My $.02 on saving….
Saving aggressively is a good thing. I saved aggressively when all of mine I was earned income. But I did it with the notion that the dollar that I save today better be worth a nice multiple some years later. Otherwise, what would be the point of giving up a dollar of spending today for the same spending power ten years later? May just as well have a good time and spend it all today.
With DHL pulling out, shouldn’t they be planning on picking up some more business?
Mortgage interest rates finally going down enough, so I pulled the trigger and refi-ed today, at 4.875%. There’s still a huge disconnect between the Fed rate and mortgage rates, but there is some effect happening at least.
Contrary to what most people are probably doing though, I went ahead and lowered my principle some. Flirted with the idea of maxing it out instead with the idea of walking away at some point - but just can’t do it.
As a side note - downside to these rate cuts is my homebuilder shorts are getting killed. Somehow people think the rate cuts will re-inflate the housing bubble and save the homebuilders - from what I’ve seen though all it’s doing is triggering tons of refi’s.
“Flirted with the idea of maxing it out instead with the idea of walking away at some point - but just can’t do it.”
Sometimes it sucks to be honest, doesn’t it, Packman? Sigh.
Welcome to the 4.875% club, the water’s fine here.
I pulled the trigger at 4 7/8 yesterday as well, straight up refi. It may go lower, but I am very happy with the fixed rate and will not try to be too greedy though I probably left some $$ on the table given that the Fed has vowed to push rates lower.
save the homebuilders - from what I’ve seen though all it’s doing is triggering tons of refi’s ??
Shea Homes just turned on a 200 unit project here that has been dead in the water for 18 months…
“Turning on” a project is meaningless. How many have been actually sold?
I have no doubt that the extremely low interest rates will help stem the bleeding of the homebuilders somewhat, but:
- It will only stem the bleeding not stop it
- It will serve to extend the downturn, so instead of being deep and painful and short - like 5-8 years - it’ll now be shallow and painful and long - like 10-15 years.
In the end the same amount of homebuilders will go bankrupt - it’ll just take longer than it otherwise would, and it’ll be longer before any recovery happens. Plus we get to kill the dollar as an added bonus.
How many have been actually sold?
Thats my point…Pretty bold move in this market…First units won’t be ready for 4 months or so…
“turned on” like a light bulb? Or like a Rotweiller?
Retiring BB&T CEO: ‘We’ve just been misregulated’
Allison speaks out on a number of topics, including nation’s financial crisis.
“Q. You also opposed the government’s capital injection program for the banking industry.
Market corrections are not all bad; they get rid of irrational and poorly run companies. … The classic example is Citigroup. In my career, this is the third time Citi has failed (and been bailed out), and every time, they’ve gotten bigger and worse after the fact.
You might get them disciplined in the short term, but if they have an implicit government guarantee, they’re going to come back and do the same crazy stuff again.”
Charlotte Observer
If at first you don’t succeed try try again, third time is the winner fer sure.
They should do a reality show on TV with the bank CEOs, and whoever gets voted out should have their banks divvied up by the rest. At least it will be entertaining to watch.
“Misregulated?” I’m sure they “misunderestimated,” as well.
A week before Christmas, layoffs spread
A growing number of companies are sending workers a grim holiday message: Head for the unemployment line.
Aetna Inc., Cooper Tire & Rubber Co. and Western Digital Corp. said Wednesday they would cut a combined 4,900 jobs. And Eastman Chemical Co. said it would cut an unspecified number as it tries to slash costs by $100 million in 2009.
The announcements came a day before the government is expected to report that jobless claims remain near their highest point in 26 years. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters project that 558,000 workers filed new claims last week.
The downturn has spread far beyond the housing and banking businesses where it began, battering workers in nearly every sector of the economy. Cooper Tire said Wednesday it would cut 1,400 jobs. Western Digital, which makes computer hard drives, said it plans to cut 2,500. Aetna, the third-largest U.S. health insurer, said it is cutting 1,000 jobs — 2.8 percent of its work force — to reduce costs and focus on growing areas.
Layoffs at my company on Tuesday, and then at another company tied to the same VC firm on Wednesday. Way more severe at the other company (which I used to work for). This is in Norfolk, VA. There are still tech jobs out there, but it’s kind of bizarre timing.
Layoffs at mine as well last week.
No, I didn’t dodge that bullet either either.
Dang. Hang in there, eco. At least you’re in good company….
Sorry about the layoff, eco. That sucks.
Hope you find something soon!
(remember to think outside of the box…this is the time to consider what you’ve always **wanted** to do, but couldn’t)
I never worry about my investments. I’m with Madoff.
–
The guy made off with people’s money and dopes didn’t figure out what his name really meant.
Jas
I don’t worry about anything…
“I don’t have to worry bout my mortgage, bout paying my gas bills, Barack’s gonna take care of it”
Since 1999 Harry Markopolos has been trying to nail Madoff. He had many conversations with the SEC. Over the years, Harry even sent diagrams and letters describing what he thought. It started to unravel when a big client tried to confirm trades in his account. The client couldn’t and pulled his money from Madoff. SEC dropped the ball.
WSJ
Um, who was President in 1999 and 2000?
Have you ever met a Harvard or Yale grad with street smarts?
This has been the flawed thinking over the past say 20 years putting these ivy league degrees on a pedestal……..what they don’t teach is how to have an inquiring mind or formulate alternative thinking, When TSHTF They can claim we didn’t know.
Which is true if you hire the wrong people.
Sort or like Caroline Kennedy for senate….she will do as she is told. Sad very Sad
I think the value of the ivy league tradition is long-dead. I can access the same educational content over the internet for free. It’s just a matter of will. There is nothing to be learned at an ivy league or any college that can’t be learned in front of a computer at no cost.
But the point never was the education. It’s just the degree. A way of certifying that you’re not a dumbass.
There is just a little more to it than that. Yes, my degree(s) has/have caused people to give me the benefit of the doubt a few times, and I have gotten a few jobs because of it. But the main value of the experience itself (over and above the education) is as finishing school for middle class kids. I never went to or saw or even heard about a cocktail party before I went to college. Never had the opportunity to talk to someone who was “very important” and find out that it was no big flipping deal. No chance to interact with people who were obscenely wealthy and find out that obscene wealth doesn’t mean you have a nail and hammer in your room to hang up a picture.
Not a huge big deal, but something that has stood me in good stead in the years since I graduated, especially when I was working on Wall Street. You can get the same experiences at most good private colleges. And you can certainly get those experiences other ways, but it is pretty efficient to get the whole process over and done with before you hit the job market. People born to wealth (with families that aren’t total jack-sses) don’t need it at all - they grow up living with this stuff, so they don’t need to learn it.
By the way, I did have nails and a hammer because my grandfather took me to his workshop and gave me a babyfood jar filled with assorted nails and a lovely lady-like hammer with a painted pink handle before I left. I’ve never been without some basic tools since.
All of my siblings.
Going to that kind of school is about the experiences, the people you meet and the opportunities you have the rest of your life because of such.
What one does with all of that is up to them.
For better or worse…
Good post Polly.
I’ve a few friends who went to Ivies for an MBA, not for the education per se, but for the contacts and networking that such an environment provides.
It’s not what ya know, it’s WHO ya know. (And who you can call at 3AM when the Feds come after your hedge fund)
‘…my grandfather took me to his workshop and gave me a babyfood jar filled with assorted nails and a lovely lady-like hammer with a painted pink handle before I left. I’ve never been without some basic tools since.’
Good post, polly.
What a super grandpa! And that sounds like simply an aDORable hammer. I painted flowers on the handles of most of my hammers, but none of them are all-over pink. I better remedy that. That can be on my schedule for 1:10 p.m. (I’m snowed in and working from home)
It’s about making contacts, and about showing you have money. Money is power. I’ve noticed friends that come from families with money wind up in higher paying jobs than those that don’t. Without degrees. No rhyme or reason, but if you have the expensive car and house, people assume you’re better than the people without, and offer you more money.
Good to know that merit is dead. That makes it so much easier… to lie cheat and steal.
Hooray!
“Have you ever met a Harvard or Yale grad with street smarts?”
Ha, I watched that show on Harvard Business School last night…they showed Meg (Margaret Cushing “Meg” Whitman / eBay)… class of 1974…I thought about giving her a call and tell her congrats…but then I remembered…eBay doesn’t have …a phone number!
And even if she did put one…where someone could actually find it…I probably wind up …after 11 different press # selections…talking to her “personal secretary filter”…you know the one that has that… Palo Alto Indian Accent!
mrktMaven,
And ‘that’s’ what I couldn’t figure out! I’ve never worked in the “back office” end of the securities industry but I’ve oft been told that it’s very difficult to get everything ‘right’ ( let alone fabricate confirms! )
David Faber on CNBC said that some clients noticed that their confirms were basically the same year after year? The only thing I could figure is if Bernie conjured up “end of year” statements, looked at what combination of stock’s performance would have met the client’s expectations and then simply doctored the statements in retrospect?
Had he been able to predict the market that well at the START of the year, well then he wouldn’t have been forced to resort to a ponzi! Good to see his Walk of Shame this morning.
SEC dropped the ball. The “best and the brightest” have let us down so many times, I can’t keep count.
It also helped that Madoff’s niece and a certain senior inspector at the SEC were in bed together.
What do you mean? We have the best government money can buy and the one we deserve!
Is this a great country or what?! (I go with “or what”)
–
The following are my comments on Treasury Yield & Housing Prices made at the beginning of 2006:
January 3, 2006
Treasury Yield & Housing Prices
Jas: “…The 10-Year US treasuries will fall below 3% some time between 2006Q3-2007Q2 [I was early on this, which is the case with most of my forecasts]. Then, below 2% before the end of 2008.”
Kevin asked: How will the housing bubble burst if 10 year treasury yields fall to 2%?
Hello Kevin,
I am guided only by history. Two examples should suffice:
1. The housing prices in Southern California peaked in March 1990. For the next 3.5 years the yield of 10-Year Note declined 3.5% and housing price kept declining with the decline in the yield.
2. The Japanese 10-Year, JGB, have been yielding bet.1-2% more than a decade and the real estate prices declined for 13 years in a row!
When Treasury yields decline in a Depression, or anticipating a Depression, should housing prices go up? When 20% population is unemployed, counting those who stopped looking for a job or permanently discouraged, should housing prices go up? MOST IMPORTANTLY, WHEN THE NUMBER OF EMPTY HOUSING UNITS IS AT HISTORIC HIGH, SHOULD HOUSING PRICES KEEP GOING UP?
One has to be an economic ignoramus to believe that the housing prices in the bubble areas of the US will not go down substantially. A very easy prediction: THE PERCENTAGE DECLINE IN THE HOUSING PRICES IN CALIFORNIA WILL EXCEED THE PERCENT DECLINE IN 10-YEAR NOTE YIELD! When the yield goes below 2%, California home prices will be down between 60-80%. And I am being conservative! I can’t wait to find out: How long economies supported on fraud, notably those of Manhattan and Silly.con Valley, hold up? The housing prices in the economies supported on fraud WILL turn into rubble.
Jas
Lucky guesses, genius breath
I don’t think it’s luck.
Hyperbole aside, I find very little to disagree either factually or reasoning-wise.
I’ve argued the same point about Manhattan and SV but mine was possibly the “less feisty” version.
I was just trying to insult Jain, er I mean, Jas, without breaking any of the house rules…
–
I know your kind, professor – No Class. Must be class-less personal vendetta. Since you don’t seem to have anything better to do in your life why not.
Get a life!
Jas
Jas — If you think America sucks (as all your posts suggest), then get your own country.
Jas — I know your kind too. To honor religious custom, you wear turbins on your heads, and are often hence beaten up by mistake by “American dopes” who mistake you for Arabs.
You also think you are superior to all and spew voluminous contempt to show it, as your every post demonstrates.
You also think you are superior to all and spew voluminous contempt to show it ??
That be jas…Has he ever posted anything that was’t condescending…
‘If you think America sucks (as all your posts suggest), then get your own country.’
He already did, didn’t you know? It’s called ‘Genious-landia’, pop: 1.
–
“Jas — I know your kind too. To honor religious custom, you wear turbins on your heads, and are often hence beaten up by mistake by “American dopes” who mistake you for Arabs.”
As I said, I know your kind — resort to bigotry.
My comments are general comments about America, which is nothing more than general comments on Americans, not Americans of any origin but all Americans. But I shoot back when I am shot at. Lot of people here love to get a chance to shoot at me and I shoot back from time-to-time. America is full of intolerant bigots because they direct some of their comments because of my name and my honesty for always putting my real name. Hatemongers hide behind anonymity.
Jas
Jas,
No one here hates you. We hope you have something constructive to add to our questions about the future of mankind and the universe. Surely if you are smart, you can speak as such and not start by telling us we are all morons. We are still waiting.
Skye
“As I said, I know your kind — resort to bigotry.”
I am not a bigot. I was trying to personally insult you. Some bigots need a taste of their own medicine to recognize their mistake. Especially bigots who foam at the mouth when they rant.
“There are consequences to allowing criminal gangs to take control of the country and breeding dopes.”
While you’ve proven to be somewhat on top of the economic situation, Jas, I find your sweeping generalizations of Americans to be enormously insulting to say the least. Your bigotry and intolerance towards others who do not fit solidly into the small little box in your mind is what is so terribly wrong with this world. As smart as you think you are, you’ve got A LOT to learn, or unlearn for that matter.
“2. The Japanese 10-Year, JGB, have been yielding bet.1-2% more than a decade and the real estate prices declined for 13 years in a row!”
That one seems pretty hard to ignore. And Japan has a severe land shortage to boot! Do you think the Fed is missing something important in their models of inflation creation?
Please explain, why, are you “trying to insult”? Jas.
For new posters, the post didn’t or doesn’t warrant
that response? or does it?
This guy must be getting old, because his “Americans are born and bred dopes” rant is turning into a broken record. Old people often repeat themselves ad nauseum. At least he no longer says “Greater Depression” on every post.
Jas Jain Commentary
…
Taleb: worst period since the American Revolution?
Jas is correct that he has been “warning” about a Great Depression for over a decade. Below is his latest email reminding us of this.
——– Original Message ——–
Subject: FW — RE: Taleb: worst period since the American Revolution?
Date: Wed, 22 Oct 2008 04:32:56 -0700
From: Jas Jain
Link
Nasim Nicholas Taleb interview on PBS News hour. He is very concerned we may be on the brink of the worst crisis since the American Revolution. Yes much worse than the Great Depression even.
Wasn’t some crank shouting this warning for years now? What sort of morons couldn’t see thru financial manipulators and evildoers like Greenspan and Bernanke, whose whole game plan was Pushing Debt? Morally bankrupt American dopes who couldn’t see gross immorality being practiced by their leaders. And it continues to this day.
There are consequences to allowing criminal gangs to take control of the country and breeding dopes. It will end in the collapse of the American system and nothing less.
Jas
Maybe Jas’s tone is a bit strident, but his posts are about real estate and bond prices, and he makes sense. Why would that prompt anyone to talk about religion and beating people up because they wear turbans?
Jas is in someone’s head, and that someone is coming unhinged. Just skip his posts if you don’t like them. Take that as advise from a guy who was wasted plenty of time getting upset with internet personalities.
PB and JS both have plenty of interesting data, keep it civil please.
Your point is taken. From now on, I will be brief and to the point when I call Jas on his bigotry. There is really no need to drag one’s self in the mud in order to get a closer look at the fellow who is wallowing in the slime.
‘There is really no need to drag one’s self in the mud in order to get a closer look at the fellow who is wallowing in the slime.’
On the other hand, why not? For verily, that is what we call ‘A super good you-tube event’.
So don’t be shy!
Well, you know Oly, I kinda sorta did already.
Doesn’t it take a lot of effort to keep a record of everthing you’ve posted on here? Must be a pretty thick file!
It is hard to follow the logic of an argument that requires assumption of ignoramis status. I don’t see the direct cause and effect between Treasury yields and California housing prices.
‘Doesn’t it take a lot of effort to keep a record of everthing you’ve posted on here?’
And THAT’s why I laughed heartily a few seconds ago when reading the Jas post to PB.
(Jas said) “‘I know your kind, professor – No Class. Must be class-less personal vendetta. Since you don’t seem to have anything better to do in your life why not.
Get a life!’”
Ummmm. “Get a LIFE?!”
Hahahahahahaha! *gasp for breath * Hahahahaa!
Blue — It may not take that much effort. Let’s see — there’s
1) Americans are born and bred dopes
2) A Greater Depression awaits any day
3) All prices are deflating, proving that Americans are born and bred dopes
Does that about cover it?
Almost Professor;
4) Whatever I said, I was right.
That covers it.
‘Does that about cover it?’
Well, almost, but where’s the valuable instruction part about how we’s been bred by criminals, and how you, PB, should ‘get a life’ and ’show some class’?
Answer THAT, and then I’ll be satisfied.
*assumes wise and thinky sort of patient face. *
Oh, and IIIII wasn’t breeded by criminal ‘Merikan gangs and/or dopes. IIIII was breeded by devout Mormons.
Oh, wait….
My wife is a Daughter of the Utah Pioneers, Oly, so my kids can relate to your plight
‘My wife is a Daughter of the Utah Pioneers, Oly, so my kids can relate to your plight.’
Hmmmm. * narrows Olyeyeballs *
I sense a long and exciting story here….
the economies supported on fraud ??
As a example; What is so fraudulent about Google ??
What is all the above about, anyway?
Jas post…
I remember your predictions. So have any new ones ?
I predict the stock market will do better for 6 months then fall again because we are in a secular bear market.
I think we all get to do predictions about this time of year anyway right ?
Jas, I’m not sure I understand why you see any relationship between Treasury yield percentage declines and housing price declines.
How are they related?
FPSS, you also seemed to concur; can you explain your thinking too?
Thanks…
Correlation is spurious — confounded by the Great Credit Collapse, which drives down both housing prices and Treasury yields (the latter aided and abetted by BB’s yield buydown program…)
That’s certainly how it looks to me, Prof—-both affected by similar input. But using one to extrapolate the other looks baseless. Maybe I’m just not getting it, though.
Jas, FPSS? Any thoughts?
The correlation is NOT spurious. There’s a clear driver driving both, BB’s absurdity notwithstanding!
I do not want to wade into this name-calling fest†, and since there is no urgency to explain, we can chat tomorrow (or whenever.)
† yeah, I know not my style. Normally, I love jumpin’ into controversy but I have dinner to make and theater tickets so toodly-ooo-and-all-that-jazz.
“correlation is NOT spurious”
Right—-sorry, I mis-read PB’s post. I thought he meant that _causation_ was spurious. They’re clearly coorelated, and are driven by the same inputs.
But I thought Jas was implying causation. Maybe I mis-interpreted his post.
“There’s a clear driver driving both,…”
Perhaps I misstated my point, which was that the correlation is not causal, as a confounding factor is driving both. Sorry, I am not a perfect genius like residents of ‘Genious-landia’.
But then again…
Noun
1. spurious correlation - a correlation between two variables (e.g., between the number of electric motors in the home and grades at school) that does not result from any direct relation between them (buying electric motors will not raise grades) but from their relation to other variables
Huh… By that definition, perhaps you did use the right word, PB…
I knew what ya meant anyway!
FPSS,
What did you make for dinner and what show did you see?
Mortgage Rates Left in Dust by Treasuries, Failures (Update1)
By Jody Shenn
Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) — Americans seeking mortgages aren’t getting the full benefit of record low yields on Treasuries and government-supported mortgage bonds, blunting U.S. efforts to curb the housing crisis.
While the average rate on a fixed 30-year mortgage fell to 5.18 percent last week from 6.47 percent in October, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data, the historical relationship between home loans and mortgage bonds shows rates should be at least half a percentage point lower. Though the U.S. is paying nothing to borrow in some cases, homebuyers are paying about $730 more a year than they would otherwise on a $200,000 mortgage.
The demise of lenders including Countrywide Financial Corp. of Calabasas, California, and Seattle-based Washington Mutual Inc. reduced competition as refinancings soar. At the same time, surviving mortgage banks face a credit crunch that limits their lending ability, industry officials say.
“Lenders have raised their prices over the last few weeks because of capacity concerns amid all this additional business,” said Brian Simon, chief operating officer at Freedom Mortgage Corp. The Mount Laurel, New Jersey-based firm is among the five biggest independent mortgage companies.
Even though mortgage rates have fallen, the decline hasn’t kept pace with the slide in yields on bonds backed by the loans. Yields on Fannie Mae’s 30-year current-coupon mortgage securities fell to about 3.80 percent today as of 8:30 a.m. in New York, from 6.04 percent on Oct. 31. Mortgage bond yields help determine what lenders must charge to make a profit when selling the debt, which in turn provides cash for new lending.
People talk about the spread, and say interest rates on bonds are high. But the treasury rates aren’t real in the long term. That spread is going to compress in the other direction.
With yields this low, it feels like you’re locking in very low returns and at the same time exposing yourself to huge inflation risk at a time when the Fed has said it will not hesitate to inflate.
There’s got to be a better way to preserve capital, maybe long and index with a synthetic short, or waaaay in the money covered calls. Of course these are not as liquid, but….
we hear the same wining in Europe. Pathetic, because mortgage rates are near 400-year lows (in my country) or at least near hundred year lows in most other countries; and for a few bp more you can still get 100-125% financing over here
“Mortgage Rates Left in Dust by Treasuries, Failures (Update1)
By Jody Shenn
Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) — Americans seeking mortgages aren’t getting the full benefit of record low yields on Treasuries and government-supported mortgage bonds, blunting U.S. efforts to curb the housing crisis.”
It must be time for the Fed to print up buckets of cashola and use it to buy down the spread.
voz-tastic,
Quad witch tomorrow. Watch out for an “auto deal” that just happens to be announced tomorrow.
I expect a good Fri-to-Mon trade somewhere in there.
The WH supposedly wants a deal before Christmas, so if my math is still any good, that oughta be fairly soon.
Is your thinking about a Fri-Mon trade in autos somewhere, or in general??
did you dump your F yet?
This afternoon. During the big dive after the auto BK report came out. 16%, that’s all.
that’s a nice return. good call.
Long play overnight today?
Not terribly compelling.
OK, becoming more compelling by the minute.
I think they’re gonna goose that bird real good tomorrow.
OK, in for some SSO @ 25.47
Anybody here do any foreign exchange trading? I am going to open an account to do diversify against the $, but I don’t know who runs a respectable business. Someone with a fee per transaction would be good, as I would not be making a lot of transactions.
Buy currency ETFs
Cheaper and safer for a beginner.
What he said.
I worry about anything exchange-traded, as my wife works for a big accounting firm that either audits them or has a team of people selling auditing services to them. So I can be forced, with three day’s notice, to sell anything traded on an exchange. I was going to set up some commercial real estate investing funds and run them myself, but there isn’t dick out there worth buying.
At this point I may just get some in-laws in Greece to set up a joint account so I can sock away Euros in advance of retirement. Euros could be getting cheap in a few months.
I was going to set up some commercial real estate investing funds and run them myself, but there isn’t dick out there worth buying ??
Patience…The commercial market was inflated with easy money just like residential…Particularly in the 2nd tier markets…We are seeing 8% caps and expect them to head to 10%…The problem is finding the right niche…Close to Universities or Hospitals is worth looking at IMO…
I can’t invest in anything exchange-traded, as my wife works for a big accounting firm that either audits them or has a team of people selling auditing services to them. So I can be forced, with three day’s notice, to sell anything traded on an exchange. I was going to set up some commercial real estate investing funds and run them myself, but there isn’t dick out there worth buying.
At this point I may just get some in-laws in Greece to set up a joint account so I can sock away Euros in advance of retirement. Euros could be getting cheap in a few months.
[I posted this a half hour ago, and it did not ever appear. If this turns out to be a double post, my apologies.]
I use Everbank - seems to be a good outfit.
Two methods - either an access account (straight up no-interest exchange savings account, with a fee taken off - I think 0.75% or something like that) or foreign CD’s. Many CD rates are 0% actually, though in this period of flux CD rates are pretty much irrelevant. I like the access accounts for flexibility.
My accounts there have been doing *very* well lately, though they got hammered (except for Yen) when the dollar made its big run. I’m up 16% on the Yen in just 6 months.
You can also do PM’s there if you want. I think the founder is quite a bear, and thus provides good opportunities for other bears. He also has interesting and informative monthly newsletters.
“Ever need a college loan? You’ve probably pored over the notorious eight-page FAFSA application. A likely home buyer? Try the five-page Uniform Residential Loan Application.
But what if you’re a bank looking for a few billion dollars from the federal government’s new Capital Purchase Program?
Two pages….”
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/12/16/BUCJ14ODLV.DTL&hw=FAFSA&sn=001&sc=1000
The bank NINJA.
Pussy, Clue lets buy a bank apply for the TARP funds and split with the free do-re-mi?
Can I get a cut in the deal? I will even volunteer to fill out the two-page form, if necessary (will ask the missus to fill it in, as I hate filling in forms…).
I’m in.
(We’d probably run it better too. And I’m taking the role of the cigar-chompin’ finger-waggin’ surface-@sshole who’s actually a decent person.)
you had me up to the word “actually”. Obviously you are not qualified to manage a bank.
Obviously lots of bank managers and central bankers are not qualified to run a bank.
No, excellent banks exist. But they tend to be, how do I put this best, snooze-fests?
You’ll never hear of them unless you go trawling through balance sheets.
try applying for a solar panel subsidy in Netherlands; I’m told the contract is about 350 pages (read and fill in lots of pesky details the burocrats want to know). Because the subsidy is pretty low anyway I doubt anone has read it until the end
I guess the application for an ethanol fuel plant subsidy is more like two pages here
I hear it’s easy in Spain. The answer is no.
lets buy a bank ??
Some players around here are suggesting its a great time to start a Bank…
Yes, it’s a great time to start a bank.
How long before this nearly trillion dollar honey pot draws lots of flies? Lots of money and little regulation is always a reciepe for fraud, insider influence, and graft. This could end up making the Marilyn Louise Harrell aka “Robin HUD” case look like a three card monte con.
Only if its HQ can be in the Caymans, and I get my own private jet, a beachfront villa, and a yacht for relaxing after putting in a brutal 30 minutes of drinking coffee. Oh yeah, I wont manage any employees…. I’ll only make a couple calls to Funds of Funds managers a month…you know due diligence and all that, gotta phone that in. Obviously, a new handheld wireless device every three months is required plus 11 months off every year, a golden parachute, a 50 pound block of gold as a sign of good faith, a new pair of slippers (these tissue boxes are killing my corns), a dog walker, a remote control, and a lamp….thats all I need.
OK Im in.
oh wait…whatya mean there’s not really gonna be a bank?
How much do I need deposit to open a passbook savings account with you fella’s?…can I get a free safety deposit box for my GM/Ford stock certificates?
Schapiro to be named SEC chairman:
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The choice of Mary Schapiro to head the Securities and Exchange Commission indicates that President Elect Barack Obama is serious about combining the agency and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={401E3908-9E0E-4313-B6D0-1E0C6177694D}
I posted this last night, but it didn’t come through: I’m going to lurk since I’m mostly just a silly jester here. I want to keep the HBB fresh.
I’ll be reading, so holler if you need me.
Keep us posted on significant events in FL and your move to Rottenchester.
Today’s consumer anecdote: I went to Whole Foods 7:45 last night to get a few things. The place was very very quiet. I saw a small sign on as the cash register that said as of Jan 4, they would be closing at 9 pm instead of 10 pm. I bought this up to the checkout girl and she said “We just aren’t getting the sales that we did. It’s not half as busy as it was.”
I am not surprised. Big Box has so much shelf space that they can carry a few of the upscale products (organic wheat pasta, or expensive juices) that you used to find only at Whole Foods. Even local grocery stores carry the Whole Foods loss leaders like rice milk and soy milk. People have no reason to walk into a Whole Foods unless it’s for something specific (in my case, local eggs and bulk wheat berries).
Whole Foods responded to competition by turning themselves into Balducci’s or Dean&DeLuca. It won’t go over well in the Great Recession.
Whole paycheck is in the same category as Starbucks as far as I am concerned. When money is flowing it is a nice luxury, but when money is tight it is VERY hard to justify. Even with ample $$$, I still feel like I am getting ripped off in both places.
Whole Paycheck was always a borderline rip-off but I do remember a time when it was not as egregious as it became during the boom, and they had products that separated them from their competition.
I flew back into National Airport last night and took a cab home. The cab driver was going on and on about how business was terrible and he was lucky to get a fare once every 2 hours. He claimed that was a 50-60% decrease from previous years.
Anyone who lives here will find it hard to find any sympathy for DC cab drivers..
Are your cab fares still based on zones, or did they make the switch to meters?
They switched. I think it was June.
They are metered (as of this previous June when I was there.)
Ya, they switched to meters. Now if they would only create a true Hack licensing system that required cab inspections, cleanliness, and provided a disincentive to screwing people over, we’d be a modern city.
Hey, I kina liked zones, but then I can read a map. Although admittedly, the required zone map in the cabs was nearly worthless.
Although admittedly, the required zone map in the cabs was nearly worthless.
That was always my impression.
at San Jose Intl they just raised the ‘flag drop’ fee to $12 due to increased fuel charges and slower business. insane.
anyone seen a higher fee anywhere in the nation?
I shop at Fresh Market and Whole Foods (and the farmers market, in season). I am willing to pay a little more for the freshest fruits and vegetables.
As early as this past summer it became apparent that these high end grocers were not turning over their produce inventory as quickly. So now that their produce doesn’t appear to be much better or fresher than my local big box grocers, I don’t have a compelling reason to shop there.
Sure, the economy will take its toll, but IMO they’re compounding the problem by lowering their quality standards.
As early as this past summer it became apparent that these high end grocers were not turning over their produce inventory as quickly.
We’ve noticed the same problem.
During the summer it’s a non-issue, as almost all of our produce comes from friends or the farmer’s market. During the bleaker months, it’s reduced my willingness to shop there, though there are a few things like fancier cheese or tofu that’re harder to come by at Jewel or Dominick’s …
The last time I was in Whole Paycheck the kid at the register said I couldn’t have the “no bag” rebate because I was going to carry my purchase (a newspaper) in my hand instead of putting it in a bag that I brought myself.
The idea that management is instructing the kids to give “no bag” rebates only to people who bring a bag rather than to anyone who doesn’t take one is a sign that something is very wrong.
For food? All I ever buy there is bulk dried cranberries and bulk lentils.
Might just be an underintelligent kid.
My local Albertsons recently cut back their store hours and now close at midnight. They also cut back Customer Service hours, so there is no more service after 8 PM.
What I like best about our Whole Foods (Winter Park, FL) is that they handle the cheeses properly. I love stinky cheeses and they need to be kept within a very narrow temperature range. Ever other grocery store I’ve been in around here kills the good little bugs by keeping the cheese too cold.
More California Towns Face Bankruptcy
RIO VISTA, Calif. — California may soon have more bankrupt towns on its hands.
The city of Vallejo, Calif., gained national attention earlier this year by filing for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection. Now, two neighbors are fighting to avoid the same fate, as the state’s economic crisis spreads.
Isleton and Rio Vista, small towns roughly 50 miles northeast of San Francisco, say they have begun consulting with bankruptcy lawyers as they draw up plans to deal with their mounting budget crises. The towns’ leaders say they hope to avoid bankruptcy, but concede the move may eventually be their only option.
“We’re strapped for cash and by the end of March or early April we may not have enough money to pay for payroll,” says Hector De La Rosa, Rio Vista’s city manager.
A Rio Vista, Calif., street is empty after construction was halted at a housing development last month. California’s troubled towns can’t expect much help from the state. A state board voted Wednesday to shut off $3.8 billion in financing to hundreds of infrastructure projects to preserve cash, as the nation’s most populous state struggles under a budget deficit that officials say could balloon to more than $40 billion over the next two years.
“California’s fiscal house is burning down,” State Treasurer Bill Lockyer said in a statement.
The states, counties, and municipalities are at a distinct disadvantage. They can not print the money. Since they can not operate with balanced budgets, then defaulting on their debt is the only other option.
Large capital intensive projects that require heavy borrowing aside, maybe pay-as-you-go government is their best (and only) viable form of governance?
California’s fiscal house is burning down ??
Oh yes….
NYTimes describes the core problem in ‘On Wall Street, Bonuses, Not Profits, Were Real.’ Although housing was tanking, the guys at Merrill went all in. They weren’t fools, however. They were highly rewarded for producing CDO junk. So, they produced as much as possible. As a result, they lost the franchise.
Oil is headed towards $20/bl through incremental 4 percent daily drops. My car is drinking cheap gas and lovin’ it! Even better: Oil is part of the volatile food and energy sectors, and hence does not count towards deflation.
By the way, in case you were interested, a four percent drop in one day occurs at an annualized rate of
((1-0.04)^360-1)*100 = -99.9999585 percent.
Sell your oil reserves now or get priced in forever!!!
(FPSS — I used the banker’s rule to annualize the rate of decline
)
LOL
Linear interpolation is more the professional economists’ style, no?
Actuaries do it with compounded interest
Did you read that brilliant “macro rant” (not mine) I posted the other day?
I wanted to read it, but I have had to work for a living as of late (bummer…). Remind me of the date and I will get to it…
I forget.
Here’s the article again. It is totally worth your time, and for a good laugh.
Thanks, dude — I owe you a recipe…
Great stuff:
“Never in the course of human events have so many been misled by so few. Yet we blithely accept the prognostications of this puffed-up priesthood, many of whom have never so much as run a corner candy store.”
I told you, I told you!
‘In what other field but economics can practitioners say with a straight face – “Well that didn’t work, let’s have some more of it!”
Oh my gosh, we built too many houses and prices have cratered. It takes an economist to recommend that the solution is to stimulate the house building industry. Won’t those extra houses further depress prices? Not to worry, another economist will come along and recommend that we build them on rafts, float them out to sea, and have the Navy use them for target practice. And if they did, a third economist will tell us that the program increased GDP and reduced unemployment!’
In what other field can the practitioners whose policies set the stage for the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression get high level appointments to continue business as usual in the next WH administration?
Exponential extrapolations do it with more power.
BULLETIN
CRUDE CLOSES AT $36.22 A BARREL, DOWN 59% THIS YEAR
Oil futures tumble 10% to end below $37 a barrel
By Polya Lesova
Last update: 2:57 p.m. EST Dec. 18, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures tumbled nearly 10% to end below $37 a barrel Thursday as worries over a sharp slowdown in oil demand trumped yesterday’s move by the OPEC oil cartel to slash production by a record amount. Crude oil for January delivery fell $3.84, or 9.6%, to end at $36.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the contract hit an intraday low of $35.98 a barrel on Globex.
Updated calculation to reflect today’s 9.6 percent decline:
(((1 - 0.096)^360) - 1) * 100 = -100
Here is another fun calculation for you: How many days at 9.6 percent daily decline would it take to get oil prices down from their current price of $36.22 a barrel to $20 a barrel?
36.22*(1-0.096)^n = 20
n = log(20/36.22)/log(1-0.096) = 6 days (rounded up)
Check:
36.22*(1-0.096)^6 = $19.77
Sheesh — I should have waited until next week to fill my gas tank!
Ok Professor,
Your bank offers you a great deal:
An annual interest rate of 100%, compounded not monthly, not daily, not hourly, but at an infinitely small time interval. You deposit one dollar. One year later you have how many dollars? Please express your answer as single letter.
I’m guessing you won’t see this buried in todays posts so I’ll repost next time you post your exponential extrapolations.
I wonder what this will do to the airline that bought a year’s worth of oil at whatever price and was smelling like a rose when oil was $140?
“CRUDE CLOSES AT $36.22 A BARREL, DOWN 59% THIS YEAR”
If I read this in July, I would never have believed it. Talk about bizarro world. Even more hysterical is the fact that Bush was over in the middle east begging for productions increases in the face of a bubble that had zero to do with real demand. Truth is stranger than fiction, indeed.
When a barrel of oil goes up in price with great velocity, then in my area gas prices can go up overnight with great velocity. But when the price of oil goes down with great velocity it, always takes weeks for gas prices to “float” their way downward, like a snowflake.
sure, same story in Europe.
We will have by far the highest consumer energy prices next year, because some burocrat allowed power companies to charge based on the average oil price in may-september. And of course the power companies have all kinds of nice exceptions in the contract to jack up prices when they need. You can choose from different power companies here, but the difference in the bill is maybe just 1-2% - zero competition.
Here’s a FIFO for you, and a LIFO for me!
Today oil prices went down with great and increasing velocity. That increasingly vertical drop at the end of the day was quite spectacular — like water going over the Niagra Falls!
Trying link again
Looks like capitulation! I love it. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
The buying opportunity for oil is coming rapidly.
shizo — I didn’t notice that volume spike at the end of the day. It really does look like capitulation, doesn’t it? I am expecting something similar in the housing market soon, with the Fed helping to qualify a few knifecatchers to rush in and drive a stake through the heart of bubble prices by purchasing comps at 50 pct off peak or so…
PB - I hope you’re right. I’ve been a bit fearful that the knifecatchers would prop up prices instead, putting “my” price for what I want even farther out in the future.
it begins to look similar to what happened in the gold market shortly ago. Futures keep plunging and investors / speculators start hoarding the physical stuff (crude) instead. The futures market seems detached from reality. We will probably find out in a few weeks or months if the pricedrop was real or another engineered event.
look at the bright side: Obama can shelve his solar plans, no need for them with $20 oil!! That will at least save a lot of worthless dollars.
I thought horders of The Precious(TM) told a story about falling paper prices coupled with rising physical metal prices. Having purchased gasoline today for a price 38 percent below what I paid a month ago, I can assure you that the physical price of black gold is falling a lot faster than San Diego home prices, and that is saying a lot.
Don’t confuse hoarding with bloating. Futures prices for oil reflect storage cost, which is high at present because it is full up.
Blue — you saying oil is overpriced now, because of the high hoarding costs? Maybe the hoarders ought to unload some of their black gold on the market and lower them high costs?
I am saying there is a large spread between today’s price and the future’s price, because of storage constraints. The tanks are full. I’m laughing at the OPEC talks of cuts. They have nowhere to put it.
“The tanks are full.”
I guess that pretty much sums up why it is tanking, as it is hard to put black gold back in the ground, and they are just cutting production, not stopping it…
“…as it is hard to put black gold back in the ground,…”
Similarly, it is pretty expensive to unbuild a house (requires a bulldozer and a qualified driver…)
To be honest, I don’t care about what happens to oil. I just want us out of the Middle East. I want us to be self sufficient.
SFBayGal - AMEN to that. If all we did was get out of the Middle East, totally and forever, I would be happy. But I think that too many of our taxpayer dollars are recycled back into PACs that will keep it from happening.
$20, I guess that means the US (and most of the Anglosaxon Empire) going permanently back to the Middle Ages is priced in then?
It won’t be too long before supply destruction catches up with demand destruction. A lot of deep water, oil sands and other exotic oil recovery projects have been shelved while conventional source decline at a 8-9% anual rate without proper investment. At the current price I’d store a thousand barrels in my backyard but I guess the city would frown upon that. Still, oil stocks offer some means of participating in the rebound.
We’ve danced this dance before. Oh, how I missed the shale oil project!
Oil will recover on the same trajectory as the next housing boom and the consumer debt cycle. Need we mention commodities? Think in terms of decades.
Too bad we can’t buy retail consumer gasoline forward, by paying cash and earning no interest. A prepaid 1,000-gallon gas card, for example. I’d be willing to pay $1,500 for one.
Funny, I was thinking the same thing the other day. Would love to stockpile some gas right now.
“So, they produced as much as possible. As a result, they lost the franchise.”
The Fed’s cut rate policy gave them every incentive to burn the chair legs, the chair and the entire house down in order to heat the room.
Cramer’s pick: Siphon more wealth from Main Street to prop up the MBS market…
Cramer’s Mad Money - Social Insecurity (12/17/08)
by: SA Editor Miriam Metzinger December 18, 2008
…
Cramer’s suggestion for the incoming Administration is to set up a government-led trading desk to buy and sell mortgage-backed securities which form the core of the current crisis. For instance, the government could take a 30 cent bid on the dollar from a buyer and match it with a seller’s 70 cent bid. The government would pay the 49 cent difference and sell it at 51 cents. This move would give the securities real valuation and help stabilize the banking system.
Dumbest f’ing idea ever. 30-cent bid, 70-cent ask: if the gov’t splits the difference as suggested, no transactions still occur. You have the gov’t bidding 49-cents, and the seller still wanting 70. You ahve the gov’t asking 51-cents, and the buyer offering 30. E.g. no transactions occur in either direction.
What an freaking idiot.
What the gov’t _could_ do that would restart these markets is to mandate transactions: e.g. tell the banks that are taken over that they MUST sell the cr*p on their books at the bid price. This would be like a real auction. That would break the liquidity freeze in these markets, but result in massive losses on the banks books—-something the gov’t will not tolerate.
“You can’t HANDLE the truth!” is what the gov’t is telling the marketplace at the moment by avoiding transparency at every turn.
I read his suggestion to mean the gubmint pumps in 40 cents of tax dollars (a kind of Main Street to Wall Street financial transfusion), in order to bridge the 0.30 bid / 0.70 asked price gap. But I might have misconstrued Mad Jimbo’s plan…
These Calpers fools must have believed the used home sellers who told them that California real estate always goes up.
WSJ
* REAL ESTATE
* DECEMBER 17, 2008
Risky, Ill-Timed Land Deals Hit Calpers
By MICHAEL CORKERY, CRAIG KARMIN, RHONDA L. RUNDLE and JOANN S. LUBLIN
At the height of the property bubble, California’s giant pension fund, Calpers, made a fateful decision: It aggressively poured money into real estate. As a result, today it’s one of the biggest owners of undeveloped residential land in America.
Partly because of these investments, California Public Employees’ Retirement System is struggling to avoid one of its worst annual declines since its 1932 inception. Calpers has lost almost a quarter of its assets since July 1, the start of the current fiscal year.
I have to wonder whether any of the TARP funny money that the Fed handed over to private bankers will be either directly or indirectly used to take some of that raw land off Calper’s books at fire sale prices?
Of course, they will.
Distressed investing is the time all value investors go hunting.
We’ve talked about this for so long. I’d start making my financial Xmas 2009 wishlist now.
Re the discission here the other day, somebody has to fund the moat fillers…Or did you think that they had their OWN money to lose?
The Count (Sesame street): “But wait Mr. Bear…there’s more…1 billion, 2 billion, 3 billion…the borrowed number of the day is:”
“That’s because Calpers invested not only its own money, but billions of dollars of borrowed money that must be repaid even if the investment fails. In some deals, as much as 80% of the money invested by Calpers was borrowed.With $239 billion in assets as of June…”
A Mushroom Cloud forming……CA needs your $$$$$$$$!!!!!!:
http://caps.fool.com/blogs/viewpost.aspx?bpid=120287&t=01002130057764754273
Pay now or pay as part of the pension guarantee fund….
The only _good_ news is that as part of the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp, we can pay about 30-cents on the dollar.
At least, that’s what my friend who was a USAirways pilot got told he would eventually collect on his pension.
Damn. I really feel for the people who need and earned their pensions.
It’s amazing how many pension funds are getting destroyed because they went whole hog into RE.
The biggest speculators of them all.
Agreed. This is the one area from which I withold schadenfreude.
Ditto.
CalPers’ investing in tremendous tracts of land during the bubble is what made me really doubt my beliefs (that prices would crash).
They are supposed to be very astute investors, and I thought they must have known something that I wasn’t privy to.
Guess not…
Make way for the liquidity tsunami into the mortgage market…
MORTGAGES
30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 37-year low
Fed actions send mortgage rates tumbling, and refinancers searching
By Steve Kerch, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:30 a.m. EST Dec. 18, 2008
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage tumbled to a national average 5.17% this week, the lowest level since Freddie Mac began its weekly rate survey in 1971.
With the Federal Reserve cutting its interest rates to near 0% and a continued decline in rates on the long-term Treasury notes that mortgages closely track, rates on other types of mortgages dropped again this week, although not as much as the 30-year.
“Interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates fell for the seventh consecutive week, moving these rates to the lowest since the survey began in April 1971,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist.
“The decline was supported by the Federal Reserve announcement on Dec. 16, when it cut the federal funds target to a record low and stated it stood ready to expand its purchases of mortgage-related assets as conditions warrant.”
I think the 3/1 and 5/1 ARM-istas are going to get a break.
It doesn’t change the fundamentals, of course, but it moves the problem out even further.
They pretty much have to help out (pseudo) rich guys in prime and Alt-A Option ARMs, or else let the high end crush the low end into the gravel, no?
I’m just looking at the mortgage rates get crushed with the promise of QE.
I refuse to speculate on intentions because I have a pure soul.
” Cuyahoga County [Ohio] government is about to become the owner of foreclosed and abandoned properties.
The Ohio House voted 88-6 Wednesday to enable Cuyahoga County to create a locally financed land bank to improve its glut of decaying neighborhoods. The properties will be fixed up and then turned back over to private owners.
The bill is now headed to the Senate and is expected to pass easily there. Other large counties in Ohio with big urban areas will be closely watching the Cuyahoga land bank in the coming months to see how it works. ” From an article today at WKYC DOT COM
Very, very foolish idea. I guess Ohio has a lot of money to spare.
Credit Suisse Group AG’s investment bank has found a new way to reduce the risk of losses from about $5 billion of its most illiquid loans and bonds: using them to pay employees’ year-end bonuses.
The bank will use leveraged loans and commercial mortgage- backed debt, some of the securities blamed for generating the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, to fund executive compensation packages, people familiar with the matter said.
The securities will be placed into a so-called Partner Asset Facility, and affected employees at the bank, Switzerland’s second biggest, will be given stakes in the facility as part of their pay. Bonuses will take the first hit should the securities decline further in value.
Soak ‘em, boys, soak the employees raw!
BWAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
You’ll take what you can get and you’ll like it!
Wow. Just… wow.
Question: What do you call the creation of 99 “Partner Asset Facilities” ?
Answer: A good start!
This is _awesome_. I love it.
“You guys bought this cr*ptastic stuff, and thought it had value. How about you take that as your bonus?”
What a creative way to get it off the books!
I only hope that they don’t swap the cr*p for something of value down the road…
“The properties will be fixed up and then turned back over to private owners.”
Will there even be jobs for those private owners? Or will they just stay home all day and tend their gardens?
stay home all day and tend their gardens?
Isn’t that how they mostly functioned 200 years ago ?? Regression ??
White House press secretary Dana Perino said Thursday, “There’s an orderly way to do bankruptcies that provides for more of a soft landing. I think that’s what we would be talking about.”
President George W. Bush, asked about an auto rescue plan during an appearance before a private group, said he hadn’t decided what he would do.
But he, like Perino, spoke of the idea of bankruptcies organized by the federal government as a possible way to go.
“Under normal circumstances, no question bankruptcy court is the best way to work through credit and debt and restructuring,” he said during a speech and question-and-answer session at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative Washington think tank. “These aren’t normal circumstances. That’s the problem.”
“President George W. Bush, asked about an auto rescue plan during an appearance before a private group, said he hadn’t decided what he would do.”
Ford should Shrub an Edsel for xmas…put a big bow on it, wrap in cellophane, leave it the front gate of the new house in Texas…just like the movie studios did for James Dean, the story might end… the same way… on some lonely West Texas highway.
(just kidding!…It’s Christmas Season!)
Charlie Brown: “Good Grief…doesn’t anyone remember what Christmas is all about?”
Lucy: Charlie Brown…you’re such a BLOCKHEAD!
So this is the THIRD time that Lucy (the government) has snatched the football (bailout) away just as Charlie Brown (the auto industry was about to kick it. ARRGH!
Peppermint Patti: “Hey Chuck, just so know,… Henry Paulson is my Godfather!”
Unless and until the UAW plays ball, I think they will force the issue. I am beginning to think this is all about breaking the Union then actually saving the companies. I am not saying this is a bad thing
I think you’re right. They have never been so vulnerable, so the PTB and car execs will orchestrate the emasculation. No opinion about it, just my deduction about the state of play.
Inspired by the various HBB gals on why nice guys can’t get chicks, I have made my new year resolution: I am going to go from nice boy to bad a*s for 2009. Here are a few behavior modifications I have came up:
2008 coug: Open car door for women.
2009 coug: Pretend to open car door for women, then as she is half-way out of the car, slam the door with full force and yell “Get yo fat ugly a*s out of my ride.”.
2008 coug: Say to her: “I would like to take you to see Yo-Yo Ma when he comes back”.
2009 coug: Say to her: “I would like to see yo mama behind your back”.
2008 coug: Say to her “I get along with women really well because I am a sensitive guy and a real good listener”.
2009 coug: Say to her “I really get down with yo hoes & b***ches”.
2008 coug: When finishing dinner at fancy restaurant: “I had a nice time with you, let me pay for this dinner”.
2009 coug: When finishing dinner at Soul Fried Chicken: “Yo lucky I am splitting it with yo ugly a*s”.
2008 coug: Say to her “One day I would like to have children and raise them the proper way. I love children.”.
2009 coug: Say to her “I need some more headcounts to fatten my welfare & TARP checks.”.
These behavior changes should now guarantee me & any other HBB dudes any women we fancy. Thanks, HBB gals.
Well, that should pretty much guarantee cougar’s celibacy for the new year
That doesn’t sound like much of a change from 2008.
:-)…;-)
Go for broke cougar. Just make sure you hire a taster for any food or drink you may get from your loser chick.
Oh, my heavens! I am sooooo arou*sed! *breathes heavily * Quickly, quickly, man! * breathy sigh* I must have you! Take me!….
Oh, yeah, this is gonna work GREAT, cougar. I applaud your geniousness.
Say, can I have your stuff when you’re killed two days into the New Year?
BTW, that was a really funny post, cougar.
So was yours.
Having recently met OG (no, cougar, not Original Gangsta! OlympiaGal!), her charm is even more beguiling (the “delighted” meaning, that is) in person, let me tell ya.
And THAT is only surpassed by her amazing generosity. I mean, a dozen oysters plucked with loving care from the frigid waters of the NW in the middle of winter? (Santa oyster wasn’t that fond of the steam, OG. But he tasted wonderful. Is that, in some way, blasphemous? The steamed felt tasted kinda funky though. That was a garnish….right?)
You do know what they say about beautiful, generous women with oysters, don’t ya? So, if you’ve got her aroused…..
Y’all’re jealous now, ain’t ya? You should be. I sat two feet away from her…IN PERSON.
I didn’t ask for the autograph. Thought that’d be over the top. It’d be worth more than gold, though. And who couldn’t use that as an investment strategy right now!
That’s because she knows the HBB types.
Next thing, the signature will be traced onto a NINJA 130%-LTV mortgage-doc, and then where would she and her mushrooms and her oysters be, huh?
More than gold, Faster….GOLD!
Enough to make even Laddie reconsider.
Whoo Hoo! I had fun, too.
I’m glad you enjoyed our meeting, sleepless. I did, too.
Since you didn’t post for a few days I had feared that perhaps my noisy grumbling about developers vs.wetlands and then banging on the table for emphasis, oh, yeah, and my immoderate gobbling of tater-tots, you know, had been unseemly. Also when I chewed on your scarf…well. Let’s just let the past be the past, shall we?
For our next meeting I am working on an interpretive dance to be titled ‘A Bear Picking a Daisy’. It’s super elegant-like.
PS. You ate the SANTA OYSTER!? What’re the little kid oysters going to do NOW!?
‘PS. You ate the SANTA OYSTER!? What’re the little kid oysters going to do NOW!?’
I can’t believe you did this. And you even ate his HAT!
I thought you was going to run the Santa Oyster to the North Pole, like ‘Free Willy’! Boy, talk about ‘miscommunication’. *shakes head regretfully *
“What’re the little kid oysters going to do NOW!?”
Well, if they want to visit with Santa Oyster, tell them I know where he is and I’d be more than happy to take them to him!
Even better, they get to spend 5-10 minutes in a sauna beforehand. See? Everybody wins!
‘Even better, they get to spend 5-10 minutes in a sauna beforehand. See? Everybody wins!’
What I like about you, sleepless, is you have super good ideas. Hmmm. Or else you’re just super evil.
And oddly enough, that makes me like you even more.
Sigh. It’s another of those therapy moments. Assuming I ever go to therapy. Probably I should.
But I won’t, unless they serve snacks and wear a Santa hat.
So, did your move go good? Is your doggie happy? Is Portland all strung up with Christmas lights? Singing in the streets?
Evil? Hey kid, you wanna see Santa or not? Hmm?
The move. Yeah, funny thing, that. I’d call it more of a work in progress. The dog? We are not on speaking terms. Seems I’ve been a bit neglectful lately.
End of work year. Christ’s Mass shopping. Moving…..Calgon, take me away.
Okay, more like “Maker’s…take me AWAY!!” but you get the idea!
From whence cameth that bizarro off-topic post?
This IS the bits bucket, innit? And what’s more important than bits, of boys, if you’re a girl? Or girls, if you’re a boy? Or either/both, if you’re some of us?
Nothing!
Look, PB, think of it as an idle and amusing way to fill up the time until J*as cycles back through his million daily blog rounds back here for another exciting, informative, and wondrous ‘Condescension Fest’.
“From whence cameth that bizarro off-topic post?”
It started in the Bits Bucket last night.
I don’t recall HBB chicks saying things that would inspire one to go from being a nice guy to a cretin. Definitely an odd post. Maybe someone is just venting today?…
This is what prompted it:
Comment by Olympiagal
2008-12-17 14:46:37
Hmmm. Now, I know gals who look at prospective boyfriends or mates as ‘projects’. They go out and deliberately select a ‘project man’, aka ‘a real as*h*le’.
(You all know such women, I bet. As if knitting isn’t WAY more rewarding than turning a jerk into Prince Charming. At the end of the first sort of project you have a useful doily or pretty oven-mitt, whereas at the end of the latter sort of project, why, you have a resentful, sullen jerk who has adamantly refused to become Prince Charming, but who has instead given you AND your sister an STD and also stole your account information.
I’d advise against personalizing that post, as it sends a bad signal.
Hey maybe we can hook you up with a Toxic Wife…:-D
Attention, HBB ladies………
I, Blano, solemnly swear that I will try to be the same decent, upstanding, gentlemanly kind of guy in 2009 that I tried to be in 2008.
Even though said decent and non-Bad Boy behavior resulted in nothing (and I mean NOTHING) this year except for a lot of heartache and a much thinner wallet (especially for gas), I will try to remember there are a lot of upstanding gals out there still, including on the HBB.
Until said blessing shows up though, it’s back to the beer.
Patience Blano, patience. Some lucky lady is going to get you.
Sign of the times: Stolen Christmas trees
With the economy weak, police across the country have seen an uptick in the theft of trees from commercial lots. Thieves have targeted holiday trim, too.
By Alyssa Abkowitz, reporter
December 18, 2008: 10:03 AM ET
NEW YORK (Fortune) — With the economy tanking, it may not be a surprise that nuisance crimes like petty theft and vandalism are on the rise. But even police departments are scratching their heads over the latest hot loot: Christmas trees.
In recent weeks, police across the country have seen an uptick in the theft of trees from commercial lots. In Baytown, Tex., cops caught a man earlier this month trying to take several holiday trees off a lot. In Portland, Ore., police nabbed a man last week dragging a stolen tree down the street around 3 a.m. Officials in Hillsborough County, Fla., are investigating a Christmas tree crime spree, with more than 20 stolen from one lot owner alone.
The followup was the best:
“People shouldn’t be stealing Christmas trees, because Christmas has a real good meaning,” he says.
Yeah, right.
Every year the pope wishes for “world peace”. That’s worked out great so far. Just for once, I want him to wish for “total all-out war”.
BWWHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!
The ironic thing is that Christmas trees have nothing to do with the true meaning of Chirstmas.
(shakes head)
There’s no such thing as “the true meaning of Christmas.” There’s an etymology behind the name, but that does not somehow endow the holiday with a definable “true meaning.” You might as well talk about the true meaning of Spam.
And the true spirit or “true spirit” of Derrida lives on …
‘You might as well talk about the true meaning of Spam.’
I love Spam. You disrespecting Spam!?*
*Actually I don’t love Spam. I said that for dynamic purposes. I always put down Spam, after two (2) seconds, unless anything else on earth. Also, I hear from cannibals that Spam tastes the closest to human meat of anything else.
I forgot my point.
‘The ironic thing is that Christmas trees have nothing to do with the true meaning of Chirstmas.
(shakes head)’
Don’t worry, packy, I’ll visit you in H*e*ll. I’ll even bring a candy-cane, since it’s you.
(shakes head)’
“Every year the pope wishes for “world peace”. That’s worked out great so far. Just for once, I want him to wish for “total all-out war”.
I think I just broke something. I’ll know as soon I clean up my screen.
Everyday now, there’s another bank robbery reported here (Chicagoland). Seriously, no hyperbole. There has been at least one bank heist reported here every business day this December. The other day an FBI agent even shot one suspect that tried to drive off in an FBI van - on Michigan Ave. no less!
If the police waste one second trying to track down stolen trees or decorations - then that’s total b.s. The yuppies here think this is freaking Mayberry or Bedford Falls. They deck their houses in lights when a few blocks away there’s dudes sleeping in an underpass. But they have BO bumper stickers on their Prius/Audi/Subaru - so that makes it OK.
What? No Volvos?? Inconceivable!
Inconceivable!
I don’t think that word means what you think it means…
Get rid of the tellers and go all ATM. Take the human out of the loop.
U.S. credit card rule changes approved by regulator, Reuters.
The article describes a list of consumer friendly changes; however, the rule changes will be delayed 18 months and banks will be pulling more credit lines in response. Most of us are better off without 10 to 15 limitless credit cards anyway.
“Most of us are better off without 10 to 15 limitless credit cards anyway.”
No kidding. I hate my limits being raised without my requesting it. And if I remember correctly, having your limits reduced can ding your credit score.
I liked my father-in-law’s approach - one card, used once a year, for emergencies. All other transactions cold, hard cash. They never flew anywhere - remember the poor fellow who was arrested simply because he tried to buy his airline ticket with cash?
Chip, if you like your father-in-law’s approach, why do you care if “having your limits reduced can ding your credit score”.
In a debt-free cash-based model, your score affects your life not a whit.
My understanding is that your score can be adversely affected _either_ by having too low a limit relative to balance (e.g. you are tapped out), or by having too high a limit relative to balance (e.g. you have a lot of rope that you might use to hang yourself). It’s odd, but those are both ‘reason codes’ that you can get back as to why your score is not higher.
Since FICO is a statistical model, outliers in any direction are suspect and are not to be trusted.
Efff-em.
PIC - that’s a fair point. I don’t borrow money, but take comfort in knowing I could if I needed to. And I like to lease our second car, whatever’s the cheapest deal going - generally an econo-car with a very high residual. No idea why they increase my cc limits when I haven’t carried a balance in more than 20 years.
Credit scores are used for employment… if you want to work for anyone other than, say, MickyD’s.
And even then if you want to be more than just a store mgr.
So yes, it does affect your one wit. More in fact. Wits is expensive these days.
Don’t you think employers will have to relax that during any recover from this mess, since there will be almost no one left with sterling credit scores?
Either that or the credit-scoring agencies will have to reduce the effect of foreclosure on their scoring models, since otherwise their model will not fit the desired curves?
There was a post this week or last about the poster’s score going up a lot for no apparent reason. It might be the bell-curve effect of worsening FB scores pushing up the ones of the non-FBs.
There is always a silver lining, and this financial storm is no different. Just think, because of this mess we:
1. Never have to take Reaganomics serious again.
2. Never have to take DEREGULATION serious again.
3. Never have to take the GOP serious again.
4. Never have to take a Bush serious again.
5. Never have to take Fiscal Conservatives serious again.
6. Never have to take our news media serious again.
7. Never have to take Wall Street serious again.
So much goodness came out of this. You just have to know where to look!
What are you saying?… that Palin / Jeb Shrub won’t win in 2012?
Then again if what you say is even somewhat true…then perhaps Rash Limpbaughs ratings…might even…decline!
“then perhaps Rash Limpbaughs ratings…might even…decline! ”
Won’t happen……..libbrals are a big part of his audience, and unfortunately (half kidding here) they won’t be going away anytime soon.
Who took them seriously in the first place?
That shoe throwing journalist ought to team up with “Baghdad Bob”…in 6 months they’ll be National Iraqi heros.
“…Other agents defended being paid to go to a regular Saturday night cocktail party, calling it an important “liaison” meeting.”
“We found that, on the whole, few if any employees worked exactly 16 hours a day, every day, for 90 days straight, within the meaning of the term ‘work’ as it is used in applicable regulations and policies,” the report concluded”
http://www.sockandawe.com
Sorry wrong link.
Audit: FBI agents billed $45k apiece for Iraq OT:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081218/ap_on_go_ot/fbi_overtime
Awesome !!!
It’s been three hours now…I’m up to x3 smacks…Mr. Cole will probably beat my best efforts in about 39 seconds!
I hope they can make one about Cheney duck hunting and Sarah “The Barracuda” Moose hunting!
Your killing me Hwy…:)…I am up to five so far…
Damn, you’re good!
…We could use you in the HBB National Guard Flagstaff unit. 
“in 6 months they’ll be National Iraqi heros”
6 months??? From what I hear, the guys is already considered a National Iraqi hero.
KB Home pulling out of Atlanta:
http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/stories/2008/12/17/KB_home.html
“Greater Atlanta has more than eight months supply of unsold, new single-family homes and a 117-month supply of developed lots, according to the housing research company Metrostudy.”
117 months is a “lot.”
For those who wish to have a glass of wine.. and those who don’t.
As Ben Franklin said: In wine there is wisdom, in beer there is freedom, in water there is bacteria. In a number of carefully controlled trials, scientists have demonstrated that if we drink 1 liter of water each day, at the end of the year we would have absorbed more than 1 kilo of Escherichia coli, (E. coli) - bacteria found in feces. In other words, we are consuming 1 kilo of poop.
However, we do NOT run that risk when drinking wine & beer (or scotch, tequila, rum, whiskey or other liquor) because alcohol has to go through a purification process of boiling, filtering and/or fermenting.
Remember: Water = Poop, Wine = Health
Therefore, it’s better to drink wine and talk stupid, than to drink water and be full of shit.
There is no need to thank me for this valuable information: I’m doing it as a public service.
*gasp *
I have never heard anything, in all my days, as smart, as shiningly wise, as refulgently brilliant as the words you have set before us. I’m ’bout in tears, here.
Another bit of wisdom, almost as smart, emerges also from Ben Franklin:
“Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy.’
Thank you for justifying my drinking habit!
Like you needed any!
TCHAH.
I’ll see you that x1 glass of Nine Grapes Port, and raise you x2 more!
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!
Mr. Cole’s school xmas play tonight…I getting in the mood!
Jingle bells, Jingle bells, Jingle all the way…
“Remember: Water = Poop, Wine = Health”
I sure hope at least a few active Mormons are reading (dude — you out there today?)…
Present.
Does Diet Coke have poop in it? My mom always used to say, “water rusts”.
Voz/Clue, crude short wouldashouldacoulda. I got into the office at noon today. It’s nice to know I was right, though.
OG, I have not given the gift yet, I did score points by fighting valiantly to get home last night with every single road closed between where I work and where I live. I’m making her a platinum bracelet and truly hoping it doesn’t end up looking like a kindergarten kid made it.
Diet Coke has caffeine in it, another Mormon evil, but it’s OK, since it is not a hot drink. Not sure why hot chocolate (caffeinated and hot) or even cold chocolate (still caffeinated) are OK; does the heavy load of sugar offer some kind of magical health protection?
The prohibition is on “hot drinks”. This was later interpreted to mean coffee and black tea by church leaders.
I think if there is a common ideal in the “Word of Wisdom”. It is that one should avoid the snare of addictions.
Oh, and PB, you didn’t answer my question.
“It is that one should avoid the snare of addictions.”
I have met many faithful church members who are heavily addicted to high calorie diets that make them obese, none who are addicted to coffee but plenty addicted to Coke and Mountain Dew, and only one alcoholic (no longer attending, though).
“This was later interpreted to mean coffee and black tea by church leaders.”
So green tea is all good?
BTW, which question should I answer?
Yep, green tea/herbal tea is all good. The easiest way to check is that the ingredient list will say, “tea leaf”.
When I was a bishop one of the most common misconception among young people in the church was that iced tea was OK, so I would point out the ingredient list.
My question above was, does Diet Coke have poop in it?
“addicted to high calorie diets”
I totally agree with you on this point and again there is a recommended diet prescribed in the revelation received in 1838 by Joseph Smith.
little meat
fresh fruits and vegetables
grains in abundance
I think that with scriptural guidance in general most people pay far to much attention to the “thou shalt not” and not nearly enough attention to the “thou shalt”.
In defense of fat mormons, maybe this is just their way of putting away a year’s supply?
Also, in case anyone wants to read the original reference from 1838 it is here:
http://scriptures.lds.org/en/dc/89
The story is told that Emma Smith, the prophet’s wife, was disgusted by the drippings of tobacco juice that came through the floorboards from upstairs when the men were holding meetings. The “Word of Wisdom” was the response.
The revelation was originally followed as good counsel only and didn’t become a requisite until the late 1800s.
I especially like the phrase, “adapted to the capacity of the weak and the weakest of all saints”. I think this law was given as a protection for those who have addictive tendencies. Of course, to believe that one first needs to believe that scripture is indeed inspired from God and is intended to keep us from fouling up our lives, and not a control device for the elite to use on the masses.
Comment by clue
2008-12-17 13:37:41
dude:
whale blubbers at 40.05, you gonna short it or what?
As I said above, I missed my shot due to 7 hrs on the trip home last night and not getting in until noon today.
Wouldacouldashoulda. I don’t cry over missed gains, and the market is squirrely enough to keep me back until my next entry point.
As I’ve said before, I’m a terrible trader, so unless I’m really convinced of the direction and willing to hold for an extended period I avoid a trade. I could easily see it bouncing off 32ish and steadily climbing back from there but I’m certainly not looking to get long yet.
“However, we do NOT run that risk when drinking wine & beer (or scotch, tequila, rum, whiskey or other liquor)”
Ohhhhhh, I feel another Maker’s Mark run coming soon!
Thank goodness I have a rather large bottle already in the cabinet, and don’t have to brave the weather to toast this oh-so-wise post!
I must be a rube, because I have not ever partaken of this ‘Maker’s Mark’ nectar.
*makes Bic pen note on forearm to remedy situation *
Oh yes. Get it in you. You can thank me later.
It’s good stuff. Very smooth. Easy to spot because it has a red real-wax seal over the top. There is an interesting minted version that can only be bought in Kentucky around the time of the Derby. It’s wax seal is green.
wmbz,
That is the most intelligent, funniest thing I have ever read. Thank you.
Never trust a Fink.
BlackRock’s Fink Proposes Mortgage Purchases to Obama (Update1)
Email | Print | A A A
By Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) — BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Officer Laurence Fink is proposing to President-elect Barack Obama that the U.S. Treasury buy mortgage assets to increase demand for housing and stabilize credit markets.
Under the plan proposed by BlackRock, the Treasury would buy new mortgages issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, with interest rates ranging from 4 percent to 4.5 percent, Fink said at a conference in New York today. The purchases would increase demand for housing and stem depreciation, Fink said.
“Our view is that the crux of the crisis is housing and we need to stabilize housing to stabilize the economy,” Fink said in an interview today. While New York-based BlackRock is making recommendations to Obama’s transition team, the Treasury and Congress, it has no formal advisory role, Fink said.
Fink, 56, who runs the largest publicly traded U.S. asset manager, said U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was wrong to abandon purchases of troubled mortgage assets under the $700 billion U.S. financial-rescue plan. Paulson said Nov. 12 said that the government’s program would instead buy equity stakes in banks.
“It is our opinion that the ma>jor mistake in TARP was not to put money in assets,” Fink said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program.
<bBlackRock was among the companies seeking to manage assets under the original plan for TARP. Pacific Investment Management Co., based in Newport Beach, California, also submitted a bid.
Down to the ‘Big One’ soon? (’Twas the Big Eight back when I was in the biz…)
Accounting firms drawn into Madoff scandal
Three of ‘big four’ audited feeder funds
By James Mackintosh
Published: December 18 2008 13:11 | Last updated: December 18 2008 13:11
Top accounting firms were hoodwinked by Bernard Madoff’s alleged $50bn fraud as well as several leading banks and some of the world’s biggest hedge fund investors, according to lists of service providers to Madoff-linked funds.
PwC, KPMG and Ernst & Young, three of the “big four” accountants, and an arm of BDO International, the fifth largest, were all auditors of the feeder funds which channelled money into accounts at Mr Madoff’s New York brokerage.
Aah, you teach accounting!
Then, why on earth are you not a value investor? A balance-sheet and free cash flows are hardly novel concepts to you!
But always put g=0 in your assumptions.
Why should the accounting firms be drawn into the scandal? They were not hired to audit Madoff’s books and records.
“The World’s largest Hedge Fund is a Fraud.”
http://online.wsj.com/documents/Madoff_SECdocs_20081217.pdf
Buyers only had to do a modicum of due diligence.
The sad part is the SEC had this information and sat on it.
(caution 19 pg pdf.)
I dunno - just quoting the FTs home page caption under the article…
I dunno,… but my millionaire “Marinfidel” brother lost his job at Arthur Anderson via ENRON! …He took some of their “bigger” accounts…very happy now.
Very interesting. But would the FAS require looking past the audited statements of the fund the client was investing in?
I strongly suspect that PwC et al knew how to write opinion letters that covered their posteriors.
Regulator crackdown on stricken Scam Street looks inevitable…
Financial Times
Schapiro takes on an unhappy legacy
Published: December 18 2008 18:53 | Last updated: December 18 2008 20:34
Mary Schapiro is entering a lion’s den. As President-elect Obama’s choice to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission, her broad experience as a regulator and her tough-mindedness will be sorely-needed. The current chief executive of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority will need to revive a depleted, demoralised and dysfunctional regulator while making sure that clamour for tighter regulation does not hamstring US business.
Companies should be in awe of the SEC; investor confidence demands it. Fraudsters and the reckless should live in fear of a knock at the door. Dangerous problems should be spotted. But the SEC is simply not effective enough. Earlier this year, the SEC inspector-general said the agency had not addressed “numerous, potential red flags” at Bear Stearns before it needed to be rescued. Acting in 2006 on an tip-off which explicitly said Bernard Madoff might be running a “Ponzi” scheme, the SEC investigated, yet found little awry.
Isn’t the century a bit young to be making grandiose pronouncements about the ‘Con of the Century’? I am expecting at least one more Madoff-magnitude blowup will come to light before the tailwinds of the Great Credit Collapse stop blowing.
The Madoff affair
Con of the century
Dec 18th 2008 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition
There are no heroes in the Madoff story; only villains and suckers
If only they included corporate entities in the running then GS, MS, C, etc. would certainly be in the running.
And sometimes the “villains and suckers” are one and the same.
Some clients reportedly suspected that Mr Madoff was engaged in wrongdoing, but not the sort that would endanger their money. They thought he might be trading illegally for their benefit on information gleaned by his marketmaking arm.
SPECIAL REPORT Issue #1: America’s Money Crisis
Hedge fund graveyard: 693 and counting
Research group says 344 hedge funds were liquidated in the third quarter.
By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer
December 18, 2008: 4:27 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — A record number of hedge funds went bust during the third quarter, a report showed Thursday, as shaky markets and tight credit drove investors away from risky investments.
Hedge Fund Research, a Chicago-based information company, said the number of hedge funds liquidated in the third quarter rose to 344, which is more than three times the 105 liquidations in the third quarter of 2007. It’s also 77 more than the previous record of 267 liquidations in the fourth quarter of 2006.
The data also showed that 693 hedge funds were closed in the first nine months of the year versus 409 in the same period last year. That’s an increase of 70% and represents nearly 7% of all hedge funds, according to HFR.
“The hedge fund industry is currently experiencing a structural consolidation that mirrors broader trends across the entire financial industry,” HFR President Kenneth Heinz said in a statement. Stock market volatility and a lack of available credit “increased the challenges for both funds and investors,” he added.
Hey Prof,
I know it’s late, and if you don’t see this I’ll post again tomorrow.
Anyway, how much of this forced hedge fund selling is caused by the senior tranches desire to be made whole on the backs of the juniors? How bad is this right now? I just don’t hear a lot about this.
Roidy
For the bond-math aficionados:
30-year (the 4 1/2s of 5/38) is currently trading 140.24 to yield 2.53%. Was curious about the change in price for various yields so ran a few numbers on my trusty HP-12C: 3.5% - 118.270; 3.0% - 129.169; 2.5% - 141.470; 2.0% - 155.377; 1.5% - 171.124; 1.0% - 188.983; 0.5% - 209.266; 0.1% - 227.481.
I was mainly interested in the changes in price (dependent on the coupon rate, of course). As interest rates fall, the changes in price for each 50 basis points, beginning at 3.5%, are (approx.) 10.9, 12.3, 13.9, 15.7, 17.8, 20.3.
FWIW.
$USB (30yr Treasury Bond Price endofday)
142.50–parabolic top
BULLSISH OBJECTIVE IS 99
serve it up with:
Potage traditionnel, consommé sophistiqué
Pain Grillé Saumoné
Tarte au Fromage
Entrecôte beurre aux herbes (avec pommes frites, l’asperge et la salade verte)
Fondue Suisse
—-
FPSS can fly to Davos on the private plane to pick up some Chocolat Suisse et Confiserie for Hozziee baby !!!
not investment advice, the food; however, is highly recommended.
FWIW
The New York Times
Economic Scene
Finding Good News in Falling Prices
By DAVID LEONHARDT
Published: December 16, 2008
Very few Americans alive today can remember a time when prices across the economy were falling. But they’re falling now.
The cost of fruits, vegetables, clothing and vehicles are all dropping. Housing prices have been falling for more than two years, and a barrel of oil costs about $45, down from $145 in July.
The inflation report released by the government on Tuesday showed that the Consumer Price Index was 3 percent lower last month than it had been three months earlier. It was the steepest such drop since 1933.
These declines have raised fears of a deflationary spiral — fears that help explain the Federal Reserve’s surprisingly large interest rate reduction on Tuesday. And there is good reason to fear deflation. Once prices start to fall, many consumers may decide to reduce their spending even more than they already have. Why buy a minivan today, after all, if it’s going to be cheaper in a few months? Multiplied by millions, such decisions weaken the economy further, forcing companies to reduce prices even more.
Foreclosures: Coming to a neighborhood near you in Maine:
Bath Codes Enforcement Officer Scott Davis said he recently received a call from a tenant in a Spring Street property who was notified her water would be shut off because her landlord failed to pay his water bill. The property was in foreclosure and the landlord had simply walked away without informing his tenants they had to move. If a building’s water is shut off, it is no longer legal to live there, Davis said.
http://www.theforecaster.net/story.php?storyid=17349
So it sounds like the tenant can go pay the water bill and live rent-free for a while. Would imagine the water is cheaper than the rent.
Maine house shoppers don’t seem to be biting
But so far, these low rates aren’t translating into more home sales in Maine. Job insecurity, imperfect credit histories and the possibility that housing prices could dip lower are prompting many Mainers to stay out of the home market, bankers and Realtors say.
“If you’re worried about your job, it doesn’t matter what the interest rate is,” said Melinda Boehm, president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Maine.
http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=228237&ac=PHnws
Hey, for everyone, like me, who is hopelessly behind on work and only get 10 minutes to speed read comments these days, here’s something to listen to while you work or do the dishes or what have you:
http://www.onpointradio.org/shows/2008/12/the-keynesian-comeback/
“In the Great Depression and beyond, Keynesian economics had government rolling out massive spending to stimulate slumping economies. Then Keynes fell out of fashion, and the free market gurus ruled.
Now, in the rubble of the go-go market years, Keynes is back — big-time. Obama’s team is talking about maybe a trillion-dollar stimulus package. That’s Keynesian on a grand scale.”
Peachy. Just peachy.
“Ariz. police say they are prepared as War College warns military must prep for unrest; IMF warns of economic riots”
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2008/12/15/daily34.html
This sounds overblown. Are they afraid an army of a million real estate flippers is going to have some kind of armed protest march in the Washington mall, flanked by their NAR member supporters?
Wednesday, December 17, 2008, 12:05pm
Ariz. police say they are prepared as War College warns military must prep for unrest; IMF warns of economic riots
Phoenix Business Journal - by Mike Sunnucks
A new report by the U.S. Army War College talks about the possibility of Pentagon resources and troops being used should the economic crisis lead to civil unrest, such as protests against businesses and government or runs on beleaguered banks.
“Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security,” said the War College report.
The study says economic collapse, terrorism and loss of legal order are among possible domestic shocks that might require military action within the U.S.
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn warned Wednesday of economy-related riots and unrest in various global markets if the financial crisis is not addressed and lower-income households are hurt by credit constraints and rising unemployment.”
FPSS-
been out all day……cant believe the # of posts in the bits…looks like a bunch of nekid swimmers are diving into the pond…come on in the waters fine.
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) — General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC would get U.S. loans to stay afloat until March under a Bush administration rescue plan that may be unveiled as soon as today, people familiar with the talks said.
—
on a quad witch friday……good lord it could be up over 500 tomorrow.
Happy Days are Here Again!
Japan’s government said Thursday it is submitting a bill to parliament allowing for the purchase of 20 trillion yen ($227 billion) in stock to help stabilize the Japanese stock market, Kyodo news reported. Under the bill, the Banks’ Shareholding Acquisition Corporation, originally created in January 2002, would resume buying shares from banks and other entities, the Japanese news agency reported. The bill would be introduced early next month “with an eye to implementing the measure by the end of March,” the report quoted lawmakers as saying.
–
can I get a BONZAI !!!
Yeah, shorts are gonna get their b@lls squeezed!
I’m just regretting not buying more at the close!
I mean the game plan is sooooooooo transparent.
I just put a rubber nipple on the top of my baby makers mark bottle….
and Yens goin to 80 on bucky.
BONZ *hick-up* EYE !!!
Watch the birdie, boys and girls, watch the birdie!
I told ya, voz-tastic, and you tell me I don’t post trade ideas.
TCHAH!
I ♥ Jesse Livermore, I really really do!
hey, I been watchin the you and the hoz banter over the short US Treasury situation, and as you know I been shattalking 2% on the 10 by the time fat boy roles down the chimney…I just spotted a reindeer dropping.
TBT is in the washout zone, for idjits like my.
not investment advice…..phone in yer due diligence.
When elephants go to war, it’s best not to stand in the path arguing about strategy.
parabolic top on the 30yr, unsustainable.
142.50 is goin 99 longer term.
might be worth your time to wet yer whistle. You know how to do that dont you?…. just put your lips together and blow.
not whistling advice. due your own fondue.
Earlier today, George Bush made a surprisingly candid set of remarks, signaling a desire to avoid a disorderly collapse for the large US car manufacturers, and ambivalence about Chapter 11. The stock market started downward, and the trajectory accelerated with Standard & Poors putting GE’s ratings outlook at “negative,” meaning it is at risk of losing its AAA.
The Bush Administration is in a nasty position, from a game theory standpoint. Its legacy is already badly tarnished, but it does not want to add to it by letting any of the Big Three fail. At the same time, heated Congressional opposition to a rescue means it is loath to merely kick the can down the road till Obama is sworn in, since any deal with a Democratic executive branch and solid Congressional majorities would presumably be more lenient than what could be imposed now. But the timetable is too short for the Bushies to craft the restrictions and governance that it might like to see in place.
Note that the idea of a prepackaged bankruptcy has reportedly been rejected because it would hurt Ford’s competitive position (or at least, that is the party line. The much greater risk is that they could lead to liquidation, the worst outcome, but better not admit to that, since Chapter 11 may be unavoidable). But a very lengthy look by The Deal said a pre-pack is impossible for GM, given the number of moving parts, and even with some aspects handled on a pre-pack basis, the US carmaker would not emerge from court before late 2010. The risk of loss of consumer interest is high, and a Chapter 11 could morph into a liquidation.
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Yves just chimed in.
Comment by clue
2008-12-17 13:37:41
dude:
whale blubbers at 40.05, you gonna short it or what?
You think your little Cherokee *ss can sit on this mound? You couldn’t even make 100 miles in this sludge. lol friigin Hawaiians think a long ride is 2 minutes.
Size takes precedence. Real paper goes to size.
For the last 2 weeks, inflation running at 37% apr. Baltic dry index and CRB. TIPs - reflect inflation, even Jas, the Indian mope, doesn’t talk about deflation anymore, a failed subject.
Where to go, where to go?
Change in positions,
Short Euros
Long Yen
sold out my euros I covered at 125 - This morning. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Fighting the Japanese government agin. Midway redux. Do the Japanese really have the ability to fight off the hordes of allies looking for a safe currency?