Home Prices Are Not Defying Gravity
One reader called for a topic on prices. "Many people are puzzled by the phenomenon of falling sales numbers paired with increasing median prices. Two common explanations are that 1) buyers are purchasing fancier homes that have been discounted ('I bought this mansion at a $150K discount!') and 2) the prices went so high last summer that even though they’re dropping now, they’re still higher than they were a year ago. Maybe someone else has a more elegant or compelling way of phrasing these explanations (or better yet, some solid data to confirm or refute these hypotheses)."
Another added, "At this point, primarily the stupid money is still buying in, and they’re paying the high prices asked for."
A third suggested, "Check Irwin Kellner on CBS Marketwatch.com today.
"If the housing market is weakening, why are home prices still rising? To answer this question, let us return to those thrilling days of yesteryear, when we first learned math. It was then we discovered that figures may not lie, but liars do figure. You see, there are averages and there are averages. And when it comes to home prices, you need to know how they are calculated before you can conclude what's happening to the price of the average home."
"If more higher-priced homes are selling than lower-priced units, the median or geographic midpoint will move up accordingly. Like new cars and trucks, many new homes have list prices. These are the prices that get recorded when the house is sold, even if the seller has to sweeten the deal by offering such amenities as upgraded appliances, furniture, carpeting and the like. And there's a lot of this discounting going on."
"Another reason to question what is reported as average home prices is that new homes are getting bigger, so part of these higher prices simply reflect more materials and a bigger piece of land. The Census Bureau reports that the size of the average new home is now about 2400 square feet, a 15% increase since 1990."
"Finally, logic would tell you that when interest rates rise, the more expensive homes, whose buyers are not as likely to be as affected by stiffer borrowing requirements as buyers of less expensive homes, will sell faster than lower-priced models.'