The Herald Tribune has this report on the Florida housing bubble. "John Lafabregue Jr. dropped off monthly spreadsheets dating back to July 2003 the other day, and the statistics contained in them painted a vivid picture of just where the Sarasota realty market has been. But in March 2004, absorption rates jumped to 30.4 percent for houses and 30.9 percent for condominiums."

"Three months later, the market peaked with 718 house sales out of 1,167 listings, for an incredible absorption rate of 61.5 percent. That same month, 47.9 percent of listed condos sold. Put on a chart, the market looked something like the Grand Tetons, with peaks in June 2004 and March through June 2005, before dropping precipitously each month to the current absorption rates of about 5 percent for houses and 3.6 percent for condos."

"At the 'power marketing' meetings, where agents from a number of brokerages get together to promote their listings, the mood has changed recently. 'At a meeting a couple of weeks ago,' Lafabregue Sr. recalls, 'Somebody got up and said, 'I got a buyer,' and he got a round of applause.'"

"His outlook for 2006: 'I think a lot of agents are going to do a lot more business at lower prices. I'm not sure in Sarasota that the agents will do as well as they did last year. Looks to me like prices are down about 15 percent.'"

"'The numbers sort of tell you that’s where we’re at. I just sold a house that we listed in November at $510,000. Then we went to $490,000, then $460,000. (After a similar nearby property closed for $430,000) I said, that’s where this market is going to be. So I said, ‘Go down to about $440,000, and you’ll probably end up at $430,000.’ (The seller) said, ‘How about four and a quarter?’ So we reduced it to four and a quarter and we sold it for $412,000. In November, that house priced out at $510,000 (a 19.2 percent reduction.'"

"He says a big factor is how soon the market will find a balance between listings and sales, sellers and buyers. A thousand houses for sale is too few, and 5,500 is too many. 'We have to work off some of this excess inventory. I'm not sure it's ever going to be back at 3,000 (houses for sale). It might be 3,500 (that represents a balanced market)."

"'But to get rid of the 2,000 houses from 3,500 to 5,500 is going to be very painful, and it’s going to take I don’t know how long,' he said."