'Extraordinary Boom Is Over': Greenspan
The Washington Post reports on the former Fed chief. "Confirming what home buyers suspected and real estate sales figures have indicated for months, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday that the U.S. housing market was showing clear signs of cooling off."
"Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan echoed Bernanke's analysis in a speech last night to the Bond Market Association in New York. 'The boom is over. We can say that with some confidence,' Greenspan said. But, he added, 'there is no evidence that prices are going to collapse.'"
"'This has been quite an extraordinary boom,' Greenspan told a Bond Market Association dinner. Greenspan said there was a 'high degree of froth in the system,' and that it was clear that two things were waning: people using rising home values to pull cash out of their home equity and the turnover of home sales."
"Analysts were divided about Bernanke's assessment. Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland, said Bernanke's comments were 'right on.' Morici said he saw the rise in long-term interest rates as healthy, with the economy moving away from its dependence on the housing market and 'hyper-consumption' fueled by people taking out loans against their houses. 'The housing market is going to come back to earth,' he said."
"Economist Dean Baker expressed concern that rising interest rates were squeezing homeowners who took out interest-only and adjustable-rate mortgages. Baker said a rising inventory of homes in the Washington region could fuel a double-digit price decline if interest rates climb higher. Condo prices could fall by as much as 30 percent, and prices of single-family homes could drop by as much as 15 percent, he said."
And from USA Today. "Baby boomers love their real estate. So much that they're counting on it to help them fund retirement. Since most of them haven't saved much, they'll probably need it. Boomers have 'an almost insatiable desire for real estate,' David Lereah, the NAR's chief economist, said. They see real estate as 'a way to build and protect a nest egg.'"
"Real estate ownership has become a key part of boomers' retirement plans, says Alicia Munnell at Boston College. That's largely because the national savings rate is so low, she says, and the availability of pensions is declining."
"Unlike previous generations of retirees who tended to pay off their mortgages and live 'rent-free' in retirement, many boomers see their homes as money in the bank, Munnell says. Many previous retirees also chose to hang on to a house to pass down to their children. By contrast, boomers are more likely to use the equity in their homes, through home equity loans or reverse mortgages, to finance purchases or to help fund their retirements, Munnell says."
"'In the old days, you knew you had your house to live in when you retired,' Munnell says. But given most boomers' modest retirement savings, 'You really are not going to be able to hold on to it and not touch your house. You're going to need the money in your house.'"