'The Coming Implosion Of The Florida Condo Market'
Some reports on the Florida housing bubble. "Thanks to the influx of big, national homebuilders, short-term market inventory is filled to overflowing. At current move-in rates, Indian River County has a 14.5-month supply of new housing in the pipeline, a figure that Metrostudy calls 'alarmingly high.'"
"St. Lucie County, with higher sales volumes, could face a similar glut, as its new-home communities account for nearly half of the projected supply in the six-county region stretching from Indian River to Miami-Dade."
"The pressure to build remains relentless. Lenders expect developers to keep selling houses. Meanwhile, public officials are reluctant to say no to new projects that fit into the comprehensive plan."
"The inventory of single-family existing homes available for purchase in the Orlando area continued its upward march in April, reaching 16,036 in anticipation of the summer selling season. Last year only 2,947 homes were listed in the area’s MLS."
The New York Times. "Miami is in the midst of a major building explosion, one that will almost certainly bring thousands of new residents into the downtown area. Johnny L. Winton, a member of the City Commission, (said) that some 90,000 housing units were in various stages of construction citywide."
"Mr. Winton talked about making the intersection of Biscayne Boulevard and Interstate 395 'the epicenter for art, entertainment, culture, jobs and living,' a place 'where everybody wants to be. We want to create density, to give people alternatives to getting in the car and going somewhere,' he added. 'This isn't a single-family residential neighborhood area.'"
"Critics say, truly successful downtowns grow organically over time and cannot simply be created overnight."
"Developers say the demand is there. Many of the condominiums under construction are expected to be bought up by foreigners as investments or second homes in the sun. 'We have plenty of buyers,' said Tibor Hollo, who is developing two towers on Brickell Avenue, which he said was the last available waterfront parcel. Since his first building opened for sale in February, Mr. Hollo said, 167 of the 787 units have sold, each at more than $1 million."
"Dana Nottingham, of the Miami Downtown Development Authority, said: 'In a boom market, development always outpaces planning. This place will be completely transformed.'"
And a reader sent in this tip from the Wall Street Journal, titled 'Shaky Florida Condos.' "There's an interesting note out of JMP Securities documenting the coming implosion of the Florida condo market. The declines cited are startling. JMP estimates that condo sales in Florida were down 23% year-over-year in March, and homebuilder WCI Communities reported high-rise tower orders were down 71% year-over-year in the first quarter."
"The analyst notes that this is bearish for WCI Communities and Toll Brothers. 'From our own observations as well as conversations with local brokers and sales people, it is apparent that the Florida new condo market, and in particular Miami, is in a lot of trouble,' JMP analysts wrote."