The 'Trillion Pound Question'
Some readers suggested a topic on non-US housing. "The countries I am most familiar with; Australia where I live, and the UK where most of my relatives live, seem to have dodged the bullet, for now."
Another said, "I have noticed that Austrailia and the UK home prices have come to a soft landing. Is this scenario that is being played out in both those countries relevant to the United States housing market."
This was added, "Good topic. I am sure some areas won’t crash. However; I am in S. Florida and it is crashing!"
And another said, "If one believes this is a bubble, then economics 101 says we must see a return to the mean. This could happen by a price decline. OR it could happen by prices staying neutral for a long period (say 7-10 years) and inflation bringing them back in line."
The West Australian. "There are early signs that Perth’s overheated housing market is cooling with analysts warning of slipping demand for rental properties. The evidence prompted several property management companies and at least one economic forecaster to warn the local market’s jawdropping bull run could be slowing."
"They were supported by figures released yesterday which show new homes sales fell 12 per cent last month compared with May last year."
"Tony Warren, managing director of Perth’s biggest property management group said properties were taking longer to let than a few months ago. Analysis of a local website showed a 70 per cent increase in listings since last July. The number of available rentals had jumped about 25 per cent since May."
"'Historically the market does slow down at this time of year..but really not to this extent,' he said. Mr Warren said many investors who bought a property early in the year had settled and wanted to rent them out. Mr Warren said if the trend continued there would be an oversupply."
From the Guardian. "With house price rises now bubbling along at 5 per cent a year, dire warnings of a property crash seem long forgotten; but some experts still believe the worst may not be over."
"Since the Bank of England stepped in with a confidence-boosting cut in interest rates last August to steady a rapid decline in consumer spending, the housing market has surprised many observers by bouncing back, though not to the gravity-defying double-digit price increases of the past five years."
"Analysts warn that despite the market's impressive performance since the turn of the year, many of the same factors which made house prices vulnerable 12 months ago are still in place, and it's only a matter of time before they take their toll."
"'There are a lot of headwinds facing consumers at the moment, which makes me surprised that we have seen such a rebound, and sceptical about whether it can continue,' says George Buckley, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank. 'The fundamentals are not really in place to sustain a significant further boom. Real income growth hasn't been that strong, inflation is rising for non-discretionary items like energy bills, taxes are increasing and there's a greater need for people to save for their pensions.'"
"John Butler, chief UK economist at HSBC, agrees. 'I think the fact that it has rebounded over the past six to nine months doesn't mean we're past the worst: a lot of issues could weigh down on the housing market. House-price-to-income ratios are very high, the debt-servicing burden is high, and banks are suffering a pick-up in arrears. We are still where we were a year ago.'"
"'There is a bigger group of people who are very vulnerable to a 1 or 1.5 per cent rise in interest rates than there would have been five or 10 years ago,' says Ed Stansfield, property market economist. Also unclear are the consequences of the rapid expansion in so-called 'sub prime' lending, often to borrowers with shaky credit records.'"
"'While demand seems fairly stable, the deterioration in affordability and its likely impact cannot be ignored. Mortgage payments for someone on average earnings now take up around 42 per cent of takehome pay compared with around 32 per cent three years ago,' said Fionnuala Earley, the Nationwide's chief economist."
"As the steam comes out of the market, analysts and homeowners will once again be asking themselves whether they face a flat few months, or the beginning of a much trickier 'hard landing'. That has now become a trillion-pound question."