January 31, 2016

The Statistics To Confirm, Or Alter, What You Know

A weekend topic on a piece written by Bill McIntosh - a full-time realtor in Nevada for 20 years. It’s in The Spectrum. “Michael Lewis wrote ‘The Big Short,’ a best-selling book about the recent housing and credit bubble, that has since been developed into a movie. Near the beginning of the film, a Mark Twain quotation fills the screen, ‘It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.’ The start of a new year in Mesquite is usually the peak season for new listings and hope for increased prices from escalating demand. During the first three weeks of this year, 77 new listing were taken, plus 14 added back-on-market properties, while just 35 single family homes, townhomes and condos accepted offers. Total active listings stood at 314, and this figure was just 16 properties short of the 2015 high.”

“In 2005, near the top of the market, a Mesquite property was purchased for just under $200,000. Slightly over a year later, it became an active listing at a price that would allow the owner to make a very slim profit. It remained listed at that price for more than a year without a buyer.”

“Now, 2006 is regarded as the year prices started to fall. Five years later, and now owned by the lender, this property sold in the low $100,000 range. I am sure the owner that lost the property ‘knew for sure,’ in 2005, that prices would continue to rise for a number of years.”

“Of the 314 active listings, 98 have been listed between 30 and 100 days, 76 between 100 and 200 days, 47 listed 200 to 365 days with 17 over a year. These numbers only represent the current listing period, many have been listed more than once with various real estate offices.”

“While the housing bubble was inflating, only two or three savvy investors took the time to examine the actual loans supporting Wall Street’s mortgage-backed securities or talk to the rating agencies that were placing profit ahead of accurate ratings. The devil can be found in the details if one takes the time to review statistics.”

“With well over 300 listed resale properties, and numerous new home developments building a variety of models, Mesquite has more than six months of supply in real estate at the current rate of absorption – or a buyer’s market demanding competitive pricing for success. Your agent has the statistics to confirm, or alter, ‘what you know for sure.’”

Bits Bucket for January 31, 2016

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here. Please visit my Youtube channel which you can also find here: