Sometimes Supply Gets Out In Front Of Demand
A report from MarketWatch. “Fresh data may confirm that the recent heyday for apartment construction is over. Fewer newly-constructed apartments are being rented out, according to figures released early in December by the Commerce Department. The ‘absorption rate’ — whether an apartment has been rented within three months of completion — was 58% in the second quarter of this year, down from 66% in the same period in 2015 — for a smaller pool of apartments. The National Association of Home Builders, crunching Commerce Department data, found that about 92% of all multi-family units were built-for-rent in the third quarter, much higher than the 80% share in the two decades before the housing boom took off.”
The Real Deal on New York. “In 2016, one of the biggest issues facing New York City’s residential market was the weakening demand for ultra-pricey properties. Next year, according to residential listings website StreetEasy, the biggest issue will be how that slowdown will adversely impact the rest of the market. ‘There’s a market correction coming in Manhattan,’ said StreetEasy economist Krishna Rao. ‘We’ve seen a lot of softness in the luxury market, and we’re going to see that trickle down.’”
“Landlords in Brooklyn and Manhattan have been dealing with stagnant rents throughout 2016. Brokers say it’s becoming harder to rent out the city’s most expensive pads. A recent report from Douglas Elliman found that just over 25 percent of all Manhattan residential leases signed in November included some form of concession.”
KUOW in Washington. “A new report predicts that rent increases in the Seattle area should slow down next year. The report was produced by Apartment Insights, a company that surveys the rental market. It finds that vacancy rates are increasing and that rents are dropping in the fourth quarter of this year. Peter Orser is the interim director of the University of Washington’s Runstad Center For Real Estate Studies: ‘Supply got out in front of jobs and immigration and that’s the way these things tend to go. Permits come in chunks. Buildings come in big increments, 50 or 100 units. Sometimes supply gets out in front of demand a little bit.’”
From Curbed San Francisco in California. “Like its competitors, rental site Zumper reported stagnation and gradual ebbing of rents in San Francisco all year long. Overall, the site recorded a 4.9 percent 2016 decline in rent prices. The biggest loser (loser in this case being a good thing): NoPa, where Zumper rents declined nine percent. Noe Valley dropped eight percent on the site, and even Nob Hill was down six. Zumper’s end of year heat map, showing the rise and fall of prices by neighborhood (again, a least as far as Zumper listings themselves go), only indicates activity, not prices themselves.”
“That means even ritzy ZIP codes in the likes of Pac Heights, the Marina, Russian Hill, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, and Hayes Valley ended the year down.”
From Curbed Washington, DC. “While Washington, D.C. having the sixth most expensive rents in the nation might not seem like something to be proud of, there is a silver lining; rents for one-bedroom units have dropped 3.2 percent overall in the past year, according to Zumper. Neighborhoods that dropped in price this year included the Radnor/Fort Myer Heights area, who decreased by 13 percent from this time last year, Eckington, who dropped by 10 percent year-over-year, and the Brentwood/Langdon area, which is now down nine percent from last year.”
The Mountain Xpress in North Carolina. “Third-quarter data released by two real estate research firms show an improving environment for Asheville metro area renters. After a late 2014 report showed a rental vacancy rate of less than 1 percent in Asheville and Buncombe County, local officials and renters have frequently described the area’s shortage of affordable housing as a crisis. Any easing of the rental market is likely to be received as welcome news — except perhaps by landlords.”
“In 2016, rent-price inflation slowed, and rental vacancy rates increased, according to Reis, a New York-based company. The Reis data for 2016 show a 6.8 percent vacancy rate during the second and third quarters and 7 percent for all of this year’s quarters.”
From Houston Culturemap in Texas. “The Houston rental market has been bonkers for a while, but there’s new proof that it’s finally starting to calm down. Online real estate investment management firm HomeUnion has identified the cities where rent growth has soared and sunk, and Houston ranks No. 6 among cities where rents have declined the most. Houston rents have fallen 2.8 percent, hovering now around $1,600 a month. El Paso has seen even greater declines: a 7.1 percent decrease year-over-year.”