Spawning A Cycle Of Speculation And Correction
A weekend topic starting with the Dallas Morning News. “For Valentine’s Day, Danielle DiMartino Booth sent Janet Yellen and the ruling cohort at the nation’s central bank a caustic forget-me-not. DiMartino Booth, who advised Richard Fisher about the financial markets during her nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, has written ‘Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America.’ The book is a scathing dissection of what she says led up to the financial crisis of 2008 and the ensuing easy money policies that she believes still threaten the country’s economic future.”
“‘This is not a wonkish Ph.D. dissertation,’ says DiMartino Booth, the 46-year-old founder and president of Money Strong LLC in Dallas. ‘The last chapter provides a blueprint of how we can go about fixing the Fed so that it’s an institution that doesn’t just benefit Wall Street but also Main Street and everybody in between.’”
“One of her main criticisms about the Fed is that it’s run by a bloated pack of 1,000 economists. A spokeswoman for the Federal Reserve Board says the actual numbers are 300 economists at the board level and 300-plus at the regional banks.”
“Shortly after 9/11, she made her way to Dallas to be with her boyfriend and now husband, John Booth. She became a daily financial columnist under her maiden name for The Dallas Morning News, where she sounded early and repeated warnings of an impending disastrous housing debt debacle. Some thought she was Chicken Little.”
“One point of departure is DiMartino Booth’s highly critical view of Yellen as a free-spending ‘Keynesian on steroids’ who lacks the experience to oversee the nation’s banking system.”
“In the last chapter of Fed Up, Danielle DiMartino Booth gives her strategy for retooling and rearming the Federal Reserve. Among her bullet points: Congress should allow the Fed to focus solely on price stability and inflation and not worry about maximizing employment. Permanent monetary policy voting rights should be given to all district bank presidents, not just the New York Fed. The Fed’s century-old map of districts should be redrawn to better reflect the economic engine of the West, including Texas.”
“Set more realistic term limits (currently at 14 years) for Fed governors. Cut the number of Ph.D’s among the leadership and staff to make way for more business people on the receiving end of Fed policy and to hire brilliant supervisors and examiners to keep Wall Street giant investment firms in check. Weak financial institutions should be allowed to naturally self-destruct.”
From MarketWatch. “Danielle DiMartino Booth, author of ‘Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America,’ attacks the culture of the Fed, starting from the bottom up. She takes on the research staffs of elite, Ph.D. economists — ‘the MIT mafia’ — who are married to their mathematical models and focused on publishing in peer-reviewed journals. She exposes the institutional groupthink — ‘groupstink,’ she calls it — and disdain for dissenting views. And she reserves her most strident criticism for those at the very top.”
“The author arrived at the Dallas Fed in 2006 after a tour on Wall Street and a stint as a financial columnist for the Dallas Morning News. In her columns, DiMartino Booth had warned about lax mortgage-lending standards, a housing bubble and escalating systemic risk. Once ensconced at the Fed, she was left to wonder why so many ‘highly educated and well-paid economists’ were ‘oblivious as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression was about to break over their heads.’ (One of the main reasons is the Fed’s reliance on econometric models that don’t include anything related to the financial system, such as debt or credit.)”
“It wasn’t just the staff economists who were blind to what was going on in the real world. Neither former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, who can boast of two bubbles on his watch, nor his successor Ben Bernanke saw the train wreck coming.”
“Janet Yellen, the current Fed chairwoman, is subject to withering criticism in the book. From 2004-2010, Yellen was president of the San Francisco Fed, whose district encompasses nine Western states and was ground zero for the housing bubble and subsequent bust. DiMartino Booth portrays Yellen as an uber-dove and devout Keynesian, someone who was ‘oblivious as the housing market in her region imploded on multiple fronts.’”
“The author advocates greater diversity at the Fed: specifically, more staffers with actual business experience and fewer ivory-tower types. She would like to see an increased focus on systemic risk. And she wants Congress to release the Fed from its dual mandate — stable prices and maximum employment — so it can focus solely on price stability.”
“Bernanke arrived at the Fed as an advocate of inflation targeting. He used to say that price stability was an end in itself and a means to an end (maximum employment). The Fed even adopted an explicit 2% inflation target on his watch.”
“The nation learned the hard way that price stability is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for economic and financial stability. The U.S. experienced back-to-back asset bubbles — in technology stocks and in residential real estate — during a period referred to as the ‘Great Moderation.’ So price stability alone is no guarantee of Nirvana.”
“Specific policy recommendations comprise a few pages at the end of ‘Fed Up.’ The issues themselves, such as whether the Fed is spawning a ‘never-ending, self-reinforcing cycle of speculation and correction’ with its unconventional policies, form the basis for the book. And hopefully the basis for self-reflection and change at the Fed.”
Mortgage Delinquencies Rise Most In 7 Years As Rates Spike
by Tyler Durden
Feb 15, 2017 10:10 AM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-15/mortgage-delinquencies-rise-most-7-years-rates-spike
Worse Than a Decade of Stagnation
by Wolf Richter • Feb 17, 2017 • 25 Comments
Retail sales are held up by only two sectors. The rest are sinking.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/02/17/decade-of-stagnation-us-retail-sales-less-ecommerce-auto-sales/
“The author advocates greater diversity at the Fed: specifically, more staffers with actual business experience and fewer ivory-tower types. She would like to see an increased focus on systemic risk. And she wants Congress to release the Fed from its dual mandate — stable prices and maximum employment — so it can focus solely on price stability.”
Seems like saving the banks really meant preserving the “money manipulators” and their control of the global financial system despite rampant corruption and top-to-bottom collusion.
when there is no alternative to a product or service the people that control that service or product have a lot of power and get wealthy.
Its called cornering the market.
What are you talking about?
https://www.fundera.com/resources/microloans
I’ll lend you some money.
More staffers with business experience? how is that going to be better for Main Street? If anything, it will be worse.
@Ben Jones -
Ben, did you read the book in its entirety?
If so, how long a read was it?
The release of this book at a point of political transition is most interesting!
Danielle DiMartino Booth
Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America
ISBN-13: 978-0735211650, ISBN-10: 0735211655
#1 Best Seller in Government Management
Thank you for posting the Amazon link, PB. The Amazon page offers a peek into the book and I was able to read Chapter 1 in its entirety.
This is certainly a candidate for acquisition, but my inner frugal cheapskate will check the local library first.
I haven’t read it but I intend to. When I started this blog the writers columns were like a beacon in the dark. Then she disappeared into the Fed and reemerged about a year and a half ago. I’ve been posting links to her papers since.
‘Creative mortgages make comeback for credit-challenged borrowers’
‘Euphoric was my state of mind after attending the California Association of Mortgage Professionals or CAMP sales and marketing convention earlier this week in Garden Grove.’
‘Among the many things I learned was that previously discouraged, hopeless homebuyers blocked from buying due to niche credit challenges, lacking enough down payment funds or too little income now have hope of getting back on that road to homeownership.’
“How about putting just 5 percent down and getting very competitive pricing for a loan of up to $1 million? A minimum 680 credit score is required on this combo five-year adjustable rate first mortgage. The rate is 3.75 percent for up to 75 percent of the property’s purchase price, with a fixed second mortgage at 5.8 percent for the remaining 20 percent of the purchase price.”
I thought elected officials took an oath to protect this country?
That’s an all-in rate of under 4% for 95% financing.
“…niche credit challenges…”
Gotta wonder how would these folks characterize Stalin?
Its like deja vu all over again…
I lived in Dallas in 2005 when I first started reading the HBB. I recall reading her columns back then in the Dallas Morning News.
It’s hard to believe it’s been 11 years!
Thank you, Ben.
Here’s my contribution to the HBB’s 10,000th post:
Denver is the ‘fastest’ housing market in the country
“Home buyers snatched up properties in Denver faster than anywhere else in the country in January.
Half of all homes listed in the Denver metro area were pending sale in 23 days last month, according to Redfin. That’s a shorter period of time than other highly competitive markets like Seattle and San Francisco and a big change from January 2016, when the median number of days on the market in Denver was 43.
A big reason homes are selling so quickly here is the low inventory. Redfin’s report shows the total number of homes for sale in Denver was down 28.1 percent year-over-year. Combine that with Denver’s highly desirable market and you end up with buyers fighting to place a winning bid as quickly as possible.”
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/denver-is-the-fastest-housing-market-in-the-country
And a repost of a classic — Suzanne researched it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPIxrzmatq0
Don’t let this be you…
Maintenance can be high.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbJz-XkOYDM
Problem- Redfin
Are there plenty of good jobs in Denver to support the house buying spree?
No.
Median household income here is less than $60,000.
It must be pretty clear to people that we have a lot more credit and currency creation than we have actual wealth being created.
The main high dollar purchases most people make, homes and cars, are highly leveraged because so much credit is available.
Prices have risen dramatically because of the credit created out of thin air to make these purchases.
“It must be pretty clear to people that we have a lot more credit and currency creation than we have actual wealth being created.”
The seeds of future inflation have been sowed.
There is no greater power than the destructive nature of borrowed money.
The following is a list of successful empires in history with fiat currencies:
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
All empires are successful up until when they collapse of their own collosal weight.
Gentlemen… line up, palms up!
I have to hope some of my posts during the early days of the HBB, made under the Fed Up handle, played a role in the genesis of this eponymous book.
The Fed is bad for America—but getting rid of it isn’t the answer
Danielle DiMartino Booth, author of “Fed Up: An Insider’s Take on Why the Federal Reserve Is Bad for America”
Mon, 13 Feb ‘17 | 6:33 AM ET
…
Much detritus lies in the wake of the fateful December 2008 decision to reduce rates to the so-called “zero bound.” An entire generation has been denied the incentive to save. Many of those in their prime working years have bought more than they can afford under the guise of low annual percentage rates.
Meanwhile the nation’s retirees are akin to so many sitting ducks. Whether their financial fates are wound up in pensions or 401(k) plans, their lifetime of savings lay vulnerable to siege in some of the most overvalued asset markets in history. But what’s the alternative? It’s been a mighty long time since prudence has paid.
As for the nation’s employers, in far too many industries, an overabundance of capacity constrains the impetus to compete, innovate and grow. Imagine a bell curve sliced right up the middle — that’s what the default cycle looks like for the past downturn.
Fearful policy makers were warned about the dangers of preventing the weakest players being culled via bankruptcy. But these admonitions were dismissed despite the Japanese experience.
The long-term economic damage that will be wrought by Fed policies prolonging the lives of the walking wounded strewn across the corporate landscape remains to be seen. The interim consequence, however, is plain. For years, overcapacity, undue regulations and the inability of creative destruction to make way for new entrants have acted as natural governors on high-paying job creation.
…
The question is: What did all of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy achieve? The beneficiaries have given new meaning to flaunting their wealth. For those who’ve been left behind, victims of some abstract insistence that a “wealth effect” would trickle down to the masses, well they’re just plain pissed. And they have every right to be. Their indignation at being robbed of their financial dignity is wholly justifiable.
…
The smoke and mirrors of the past years did not work “allow me to offer my own smoke and mirror solution. It has no unintended consequences.” No private mint of gold and silver bullion which is the Austrian economics solution.
The smoke and mirrors of the past years did not work “allow me to offer my own smoke and mirror solution. It has no unintended consequences.” No private mint of gold and silver bullion which is the Austrian economics solution.
Exactly. Her “solutions” would solve nothing. It would just be a slightly different variation of the same old thing.
The only way to fix the fed is to eliminate it. You cannot reform an institution whose very existence is illegitimate, and whose very purpose is nefarious.
Said it for me.
Just to add; the so-called central bank could not create their skim of inflation without the army of debt junkies, private, corporate and public. Relentless borrowing for what is not absolutely necessary and readily able to be paid for is as illegitimate as the Fed.
If you are living beyond your means with mortgages, car loans, education loans, entitlements and all that, were the Fed to get it’s wings clipped you would be in a world of hurt rather suddenly. Stop burrowing while you can.
I love you guys. I love this blog.
Blue - but which came first? Yes, individuals are responsible for their own decisions, even when they are enticed into bad decisions by everything going on around them that whispers into their ear that “everyone is doing it” and “this is the way to make it”. There isn’t any escape from personal responsibility.
However, do think there would be so much easy credit absent central banking? Pre-1913 we didn’t have this situation. Since then, it’s grown like cancer.
And the Federal Reserve did not come into being because your average joe wanted it.
People won’t like the remedy, but they do need it.
Karen,
I don’t think some people would get into a cycle of payday loans without the loan shops. I was visiting an Air Force base some years ago and the street leading to the entrance was loaded with such places. No accident that every other store front was some kind of strip joint.
That cycle doesn’t make anything in my life more expensive. The Fed’s cycle does.
Why didn’t feds close pawn shops?
What would you propose to replace it? Universal Bitcoin, perhaps?
Completely eliminate KYC (all three levels) on Bitcoin (and ether and Litecoin) machines and coin sales at coin shops, for starters. Then Fed will die from lack of use as people rush out of dollars. There are already Bitcoin payroll sites to allow companies to direct deposit to Bitcoin addresses.
The KYC at coin shops are lax (for now) for amounts under $10,000. I can go to my favorite Florida coin shop and they just ask me to sign a paper when I buy gold or silver and sell gold and silver. Don Duckworth.
Professor Bear,
This is an interesting post, and while I do agree with certain parts of this, there are other pieces that do not really work in practice.
1) What you are saying is that we need austerity to cure our disease of over capacity. Austerity should never be implemented during down turn or out-right disaster like 2008-09. Austerity is best applied during the latter part of an upturn, and it should be gentle but persistent. Greece proved this.
2) “Creative Destruction” is a real problem that Business, Academic, and Government should understand, but don’t. What we’ll get is a uncontrolled change that can cause untold human damage. World War 2 came about because the Western Democracies botched their response to a 1930 down turn made worse than it ever should have been. This idiocy caused the Great Depression- enter Hitler. Yes, this BS was led by the FED. They thought that the US economy used actual money. Checks? Credit? Naaawwww. Nothing like making policy when one hasn’t the slightest idea of the realities of the situation.
3) The FED and the Zombies. Yes, we need to let them die. But what will happen is more UNDER-EMPLOYMENT. This is a special form of misery. Not enough money, one health crisis from the street, children with no reasonable future in life. No one wants people to become victims of forces beyond their control with no way out. This is what will happen if care and consideration is not taken. Technology (smart phones, communications, etc.), computers everywhere, and new business models (Amazon, Craigslist, Tesla, etc, etc.) will solve and cause problems. Considering what has happened in the 20th Century with changing technology and ideas, we don’t want a repeat.
What little I have been saying in these comments do not do justice to the complexity of our current situation. Much has been left out, and much is not understood. We must not engage in a slash-and-burn policy. We will not survive the result. We barely did the last time.
Regards,
Roidy
“Austerity should never be implemented during down turn or out-right disaster like 2008-09″
The problem was too much debt. So much that it couldn’t be repaid. Businesses and jobs that should never have existed in the first place. What does extending them with more piles of debt lead to?
As the story about the former millionaire flipper the other day pointed out, it leads to you cleaning someone else’s toilets.
Blue Skye,
Of course part of the problem was too much debt. Sure. Absolutely. Still, what actually caused that? It’s no secret: due diligence was nonexistent during the run up. Financial Engineering was spreading small bits of diseased filth up and down the food chain. Raising interest rates after that is just asking for a bigger blow up. No, I do not like bailing those assholes out. Not the lenders who lent money to anyone who could fog a mirror, and I certainly don’t approve of letting speculators and other types who bought far more house/condo/land than they could reasonably need or pay for. That being said, we should NEVER tighten credit, reduce gov’t spending, or undergo austerity in this situation. Makes it worse. Much worse.
Regards,
Roidy
It was always about protecting the wealth of the privileged few at the expense of the masses.
Ultimately what does the Fed do? It transfers wealth, in the form of money, to Wall Street, when Wall Street becomes unprofitable.
Greenspan put it succinctly:
“Yet Mr Greenspan also held a fear and a hope. His fear was that participants in the financial game would always be too far ahead of the government’s referees and that the regulators would always fail. His hope was that “when risk management did fail, the Fed would clean up afterwards.”
There’s no personal consequence to blowing up the financial system while you get rich, for Wall Street executives. Dick Fuld, Joe Cassano - zero negative consequence for their actions, and they still truculently insist that they did nothing wrong.
The Fed has a Magic Checkbook” that it can use to extract wealth from the country and the world, and direct it to it’s favored recipients.
It’s a scam that’s taken decades to perfect by very clever people, all enabled by the apparently increasing feckless and venality of politicians. People have known about the dangers of this kind of system for a long time.
It transfers wealth, in the form of money, to Wall Street, when
Wall Street becomes unprofitablemoney is most dear and least available to Main Street.Fixed it!
‘Los Angeles County local primary elections will take place on Tuesday, March 7th. On the Westside, Venice locals Robin Rudisill and Mark Ryavec will challenge incumbent Councilmember Mike Bonin. Yo! Venice asked a number of questions to all three candidates. Here is Venice local, Robin Rudisill’s unedited response…’
‘There is another factor that no one seems to talk about. Los Angeles and other cities with international profiles are attracting huge amounts of real estate investment from around the globe. This is capital looking for a place to park, and the market it finds attractive is luxury housing, not affordable housing. This has put upward pressure on the entire market. Thus, we have simultaneously an affordable housing crisis and a luxury housing glut.’
“This is capital looking for a place to park, and the market it finds attractive is luxury housing, not affordable housing.”
You mean it doesn’t want to buy the ghetto?
I dunno, but something tells me the definition of “luxury” has changed over the years. Luxury now basically means anything that isn’t the ghetto.
One of the things that I would like to find is a well-located mobile-home park where you can build/lease small manufactured homes.
It doesn’t need to be on the beach in Malibu, but if it’s well located (ie. not crime ridden, and reasonably proximate to jobs), the demand is deep and wide.
But then again, I don’t care to have a property that looks nice on a brochure.
I’m no expert in trailer parks, but the ones I’ve seen so far, if it is the type that restricts to elder people, 55+ years of age, they aren’t so bad! Pretty well maintained, and not a lot of crime. The rest are drug slums and crime. Of course there are probably exceptions to that, but in general that seems to be the case.
trailer parks can be a concentrate microcosm of living patterns for select groups.
the manager / owner sets the tone.
the age group sets the pace.
just like society, the younger crowd wants to party w/no restrictions. the middle-agers rarely move there by choice but try to make the best of a bad break.
elderly just want you to get the hell off their lawn. what little there is of it, of course. and don’t block their driveway: the grandkids will be there any minute!
all stereotypes, for sure. there are many wonderful trailer parks. but leading indicators: condition of units & cars.
congrats on the blog’s long life, Ben.
(the 4 words that Realtors hate: “Well, according to Ben”. or it might be “FSBO”. haha!!)
Here’s one for you, Palmetto -
Over 55 trailer park near Asheville, NC
http://www.thehalfwaytree.com/home-1.html
Named after the southern red oak that was once located next to the clubhouse. It has been told that the Half-way Tree was located halfway between Miami and New York. It is nestled in a wooded area close to historic Hendersonville yet has the feel of being in the country. Flat Rock Playhouse and the Carl Sandburg home are only minutes away. It is convienient to shopping, hospitals, restaurants, golf, tennis, and many area attractions.
Here’s one for you, Palmetto ??
Palmy is worshiping at a rally today…
“Palmy is worshiping at a rally today…”
No, I think he took his dog to climb a frozen waterfall this weekend.
climb a frozen waterfall
http://lakecityicepark.com/ice-festival.html
Yup.
“Over 55 trailer park near Asheville, NC”
Beats the peewadden outta Charlotte.
“Palmy is worshiping at a rally today…”
Watched it on line. The fire rises.
“Awesome prizes for the best climbs”
What constitutes a “best climb”? One arm tied behind the back? Climbing upside down?
“Yup.”
Is that your dog at the summit in that picture?
“What constitutes a “best climb”? One arm tied behind the back? Climbing upside down?”
Are you familiar with goon’s world famous mountain climbing dog?
I can’t wait to get back to Lake City! Correction: I can wait…until this summer, hehe. Enjoy your snow and ice, I’ll drop by when its warm(er). See you at Poker Alice!
“Beats the peewadden outta Charlotte.”
There are more jobs (and people) in Charlotte than in the Asheville area, so I guess I’ll have to hold my water.
Too many people for me, but most people who live there seem to like it, I don’t hear of many people desperate to get out, so it must be OK.
The only thing luxurious about what is currently being called luxury is the price.
You mean that stainless appliances (as found in an ugly commercial kitchen) aren’t luxury? Say it isn’t so . . .
The really high-end homes have refrigerators built-in, complete with wood-paneled doors that match the rest of the cabinetry.
“Affordable housing” = Definitely the ghetto.
I wonder what’s going to happen to Detroit when Quicken Loans eventually goes bust. It seems the entire “revitalization” of Detroit is based on the back of risky subprime mortgages and equity loans given out all across the country by Quicken Loans. On one hand, it’s great to see the redevelopment of Detroit happening, on the other hand, it’s a bummer to see it based on something like that, rather than a real sustainable business.
The sooner that Quicken Loans Arena where the Cleveland Cavaliers play is renamed Gund Arena, the better.
Nobody calls it “The Q.” That’s just marketing, it’s not some affectionate nickname that Clevelanders bestowed on it.
Re trailer parks
Look for a place that’s not susceptible to tornadoes.
Trailers and tornadoes seem to go together like magnet and steel.
if I recall correctly I believe it’s required or recommended that all “Modular Homes” now install tornado straps in high risk areas?
Butthead: :high wind: “We’re there dude.”
Beavis: “Where?”
Butthead:”The trailer park, dumbass.”
Beavis: “Oh yeah, hehehehe.”
[get on their bikes and head for Lolita and Tanqueray's house]
There’s a media bias, as a sound structure will withstand a direct hit by a medium sized tornado, while a trailer will not. Hence there tend to be a lot more reported tornado events involving trailers than structures built to withstand tornadic winds.
Wild Cherry
Play That Funky Music
Wild Cherry frontman Rob Parissi wanted to write a hit song, and his plan was to copy from the best. He subscribed to Billboard magazine, which charts the hit songs. When it arrived each week, he would pick out a song or two to copy, making it just different enough to avoid getting sued. After some time doing this, he wrote the one that became his #1 hit. The song he copied: “Fire” by The Ohio Players (listen especially to the bassline and vocal stylings).
This song was a topic of conversation on the 2015 episode of The Big Bang Theory, “The Skywalker Incursion.” When the song comes on the car radio, the scientist character Sheldon determines that the song is funky, and that it is requesting a white boy to play funky music. Seeing it as an example of Russell’s Paradox, he asks, “Do you think this song is the music the white boy ultimately plays?”
http://www.songfacts.com/detail.php?id=4137
Ohio Players - Fire
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xqMY8UAGgg
Play that Funky Music with Lyrics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-q8Gtr4coM
I saw Earth Wind & Fire play in West Palm Beach in 2004. They had like 20 singers, musicians, and dancers all on stage, it was really groovy…
I used to read her articles when ever they appeared in Dallas Morning Post in 2004-2006. They were syndicated nationally as well. She was always bang on in her analysis. I had written an email to her in 2006 during one of those record rallies and she had quoted me in her article. Then as now, the atmosphere was that nothing can go wrong, the Fed knew everything and could fix any hiccups. Couples were buying houses after waiting in line for 3 days and nights from the builders releasing their next phase and each phase released was sold at the asking price within minutes.
San Jose, CA Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/evergreen-san-jose-ca/home-values/
I’m flying to SJ tomorrow… hope it’s still there.
fly in a pontoon boat. just in case.
Do you ever feel like your ability to do your job is held back by the motley crew of greenhorns, oddballs and second-raters who work for you?
Fed has targeted vision because it cannot manage large scale diversity. It can never be equipped to do so with it’s current hierarchy or available resources.
It pretends to use it’s superior intellect to find those one or two right paths to provide a cornocupia of plenty.
And in so doing benefits only those who can use their abilities in large formats.
The market should manage itself. Criminals who abuse it shouldn’t be just shown the instruments of torture - - -
Bring peace and prosperity in our time: END THE FED!
Happy 10K to the HBB. Hanging out in Joshua Tree, stamping feet, and eating crow since 2005.
Absolutely! Happy Farkle post.
I had no idea a decade ago that we would still be studying this Godzilla of a credit bubble.
Did any of the old-timers foresee that the Fed would drive and shackle the Housing Bubble into a quasi-permanent denial stage of grief?
As I recall, no. Those who thought the buy opportunity would be in 06-07 were the majority. Some crazies thought it would be as late as ‘11! We were so naive.
The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
I’m running into this now as I consider shorting santander (NYSE SC). the auto loan sector. Then I read a Bloomberg article from 13 mo ago about the impending collapse of the sector. I realize I’m not smart enough to speculate!
The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay in the market.
Not everyone who hangs out in Joshua Tree leaves alive.
Travel
A Joshua Tree Motel Room, Haunted by the Ghost of a Country Legend
In My Hour Of Darkness
Biggie Smalls — Things Done Changed (1994):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TA9jmPinwyc
Biggie Smalls — Things Done Changed (1994):
http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/notoriousbig/thingsdonechanged.html
never been a fan of this ghetto music, never made any real money playing it, Old school rap and latin freestyle was always played in the gigs we got…… but the lyrics makes sense if you lived there..
Ice T — Mic Contract:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kj8TT4ypsw4&list=PL1fopR4fqnijTnBqiGsqLEodheRVORQ5L
Chicago had a bad year for homicides in 2016…
Ice T must be a South Pole Elf
1:54 - 3:25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02572EyOIzQ
Looks like sellers in London are still in the denial stage of grief. If they would lower their prices, their houses wouldn’t sit so long. Some day they’ll come around.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/housing-market-slump-ten-months-for-sale-brexit-house-prices-a7587076.html
““But if the price is too high then it will take longer to sell and [the property] will stand out as stale and would-be buyers will start to wonder what is wrong with it.””
Happy 10K, HBB!
I’m looking forward to the next 10K!
I’m giving haircuts today!
smulgee
Do you ever feel like a one-man band with an impulsive, seat-of-the-pants management style.
“Right now, Mampilly says: “Stocks are on the cusp of an historic surge. They could easily hit 50,000. It will be a bull market run that will dwarf the tech boom of the ‘90s. I’ve never been more certain of anything in my career.”
http://banyanhill.com/exclusives/dow-50000/?z=534980
LMFAO
Midtown Manhattan Rental Rates Crater 10% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/midtown-new-york-ny/home-values/
Just a few months ago, just last September, it was … it was settled …
http://ktla.com/2016/09/15/the-new-normal-californias-severe-drought-could-last-indefinitely-new-study-says/
hilarious! always experts tryn to predict nature.
Hook (music)
From Wikipedia
One definition of a hook is “a musical or lyrical phrase that stands out and is easily remembered.”
A hook has been defined as a “part of a song, sometimes the title or key lyric line, that keeps recurring.”
The hook is ‘what you’re selling’.
Though a hook can be something as insubstantial as a ’sound’ (such as da doo ron ron), “ideally should contain one or more of the following: (a) a driving, danceable rhythm; (b) a melody that stays in people’s minds; (c) a lyric that furthers the dramatic action, or defines a person or place.[5]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hook_(music)
“A grim new study led by a UCLA”
“the new normal”
“the most intense ever recorded”
“periods of dryness in California over the past 10,000 years”
“the most intense ever recorded”
“the last three years have also been the hottest and driest in about 120 years”
“hundreds and even thousands of years”
“catastrophic effects”
“That aridity is the new normal.”
“In a century or so, we might see a retreat of forest lands”
“We would expect temperatures to get higher, and rainfall and snowfall would decrease. Fire activity could increase, and lakes would get shallower, with some becoming marshy or drying up.”
“extreme” fire behavior”
All I know is this year’s crop of PCT thru-hikers are faced with a snowed in Sierra Nevada so much so many are considering bypassing it. Problem is that there will be snow north of the SN too.
We owe the founding fathers an immense debt of gratitude for establishing freedom of the press.
Remember….. Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.
Happy 10 K posts
look who’s broke……
http://www.crimeonline.com/2017/02/19/lisa-marie-presley-says-shes-broke-after-ex-asks-for-money/