A Stuck-In-The-Headlights Situation
A report from Globes on Israel. “Bank of Israel figures show that the average interest rate on index-linked mortgages rose from 3.84% in January to 3.85% in February, completing a rise of almost 2% in 18 months. Causes of the increase included expectations of a rise in the Consumer Price Index; a slackening of competition between the banks; bond market fluctuations, which affect the mortgage market; expectations that the Bank of Israel will raise its interest rate; and, above all, continued demand for housing, despite reports of a slowdown. The upward trend extended to all mortgage periods. The figure published means that the effective mortgage interest rate (taking index-linkage into account) is nearing 6%: the Bank of Israel itself sets the annual inflation target at 1-3%.”
“While it is true that this target has not been achieved in recent years (the CPI has gone down in the recent years), the expectation is that inflation will resume in the near future. In such a scenario, people who take index-linked mortgages will discover that their mortgage payments are significantly increasing. If we assume that the CPI will increase by 2%, the effective interest rate will be around 6%, which is high.”
The Sunday Times on the UK. “Homeowners are waiting up to ten months to sell their properties as inflated asking prices and economic uncertainty cause the housing market to stall. The slowdown is particularly affecting areas of southern England where prices have risen rapidly in recent years, including London, Oxford, Bristol and Cambridge. This has left many sellers trapped in homes that they would rather leave, creating a block in the market.”
“Nina Harrison, of Haringtons, a property buying agency, said: ‘It is a stuck-in-the-headlights situation. Neither party [buyer or seller] dares to move.’”
The China Post on Taiwan. “Taipei’s luxury home market thawed over the past few months but prices for The Palace — one of the most coveted residential complexes — remain uncertain after two of its units failed to sell at separate auctions. The price set for the TFASC auction was still too high to attract buyers, while the unit in the court auction comes with an existing tenant, which deterred potential bidders, the agents said.”
“The TFASC set the bottom price for the unit at NT$750 million, or almost NT$2.789 million per ping (3.3 square meters). Xinyi Realty researcher Tseng Ching-der noted that at the peak of Taiwan’s property market in recent years, price-per-ping for a unit of The Palace — located at the junction of Jianguo South and Renai Roads — reached as high as NT$2.982 million, and the average stood at about NT$2.7 million, according to the Central News Agency. For the unit in the court auction, the bottom price was set at NT$265 million, or about NT$2.36 million per ping. Jessica Hsu, an executive from the HB Housing, said it was no surprise that the auctions failed because the deals did not seem profitable.”
From Bloomberg on China. “The strength or otherwise of the Chinese property market is set to have far-reaching implications for the global economy this year. Rather than relying solely on official statistics, however, those looking for an indication of the performance of the Chinese construction sector might want to direct their attention to the world’s steelmakers. Construction accounts for the biggest part of steel demand in the top consumer markets, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. China’s home prices have shown signs of slowing as local governments and banks follow Beijing’s orders to tighten the market and rein in asset bubbles.”
“Stockpiles of iron ore at China’s ports have expanded at an ‘unprecedented’ pace since the start of this year, noted Ivan Szpakowski, chief investment officer at Academia Capital LLC. Iron ore inventory at China’s ports rose to a record 127 million tonnes last week, according to Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co., while stockpiles of reinforcement bar used in construction surged to 8.2 million tonnes, the highest since April 2014.”
“‘We’re much more leveraged now than we’ve been in two years, in terms of inventory throughout the whole supply chain, whether it’s traders or steel mills, or whether it’s iron ore or steel,’ said Ivan Szpakowski, chief investment officer at Academia Capital LLC.”
The Courier Mail on Australia. “The building industry is getting tougher every day. ASX-listed Onterran, which owns Brisbane-based Bloomer Constructions, voluntarily suspended its shares pending an announcement about the ‘potential divestment of a subsidiary and trading update.’ It is not clear what is going on, but we hear Bloomer has been struggling in an increasingly tough property market.”
“Onterran, which acquired Bloomer in 2015, warned last year that its subsidiary had been ‘working through a difficult period’ with significant increases in contractor and raw material costs. Onterran did not return calls yesterday but we hear there are quite a few nervous subbies out there.”
“Creditors of the collapsed Cullen Group Australia have appointed a new Melbourne-based liquidator Michael Caspaney, of Menzies Advisory, to replace Brisbane’s Mark Pearce. Cullen closed its doors just before Christmas, owing creditors an estimated $18 million and capping a horror year for the building industry that faces a glut of inner city apartments and tighter bank lending.”
“Caspaney was not available yesterday to explain why he was given the job, but we hear he has his work cut out for him unravelling the financial mess. The industry regulator, the Queensland Building and Construction Commission, has come under fire for not acting sooner to shut Cullen down.”
‘Stockpiles of iron ore at China’s ports have expanded at an ‘unprecedented’ pace since the start of this year, noted Ivan Szpakowski…Iron ore inventory at China’s ports rose to a record 127 million tonnes last week, according to Shanghai Steelhome Information Technology Co., while stockpiles of reinforcement bar used in construction surged to 8.2 million tonnes, the highest since April 2014.’
Anyone remember what happened the last time commodities piled up in China?
I copied exactly the same lines…
It’s a setup. Buckle your seat belts.
I can recall Albuquerquedan repeatedly assuring us that all was well, followed by the crow banquet of a lifetime.
How will the porcine beauticians spin this latest Chinese commodities train wreck?
China on a PPP is the largest economy in the world. It is for most commodities the largest consumer in the world. Accordingly if the professional commodity traders saw an imminent collapse of China they would be running for the exits. So what do we see going on right now? Iron ore, aluminum, copper and oil etc. are all strong. Does it assure that China is not near an imminent collapse, no commodity players can be wrong but they cannot be often wrong without becoming bankrupt. So I think I will go with them instead of Altfacts since I am sure when you are wrong you will just change your name. I have kept the same name for almost ten years because I am proud of my record of predictions, am I always right no but I do not know anyone on this board that has a better record.
China on a PPP is the largest … pile of smouldering debt in the universe. For a very poor country, that’s as dangerous as it gets.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/chinas-growth-breathes-new-life-into-old-ghosttowns/article33421480/
From the article:
” Empty homes still plague the landscape. Chinese statistics actually show a slight increase in unsold real estate over the past 12 months.
Ghost towns, it turns out, are easier to fix than the masses of empty apartment towers wedged into the corners of urban centres across the country. ”
Nice pictures, but they were actors making a film.
I posted the whole article so everyone could read it. Yes, they were actors but it went on to say that after the filming the town filled up with real inhabitants. You are cherry picking the article.
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/real-estate/New-home-sales-continue-to-gain-pace/shdaily.shtml
Sometimes the details make one skeptical. Sometimes the eye-candy is misleading. Why didn’t the “reporter” show pictures of real life if it is such good news?
Filled up? That’s not what it says at all. What’s your motive in misrepresenting this overbuilding?
I posted an article I did not misrepresent anything. However, the premise of the article was that the so called empty ghost cities are filling. The problem is with the tier three and tier four cities. I agree with that but I do see many of those apartments filling when people retire and move back to their cheaper areas. Similar to what has occurred in this country.
But if you want to talk about the movie town, I consider this to be stating that the town is filled up:
“There are hardly any apartments left for sale here,” says Jamie Jin, 38, who bought his place last year. Prices are up 60 per cent in the last three years and the population has more than tripled to 30,000.
I understand the premise. It’s difficult to take the premise at face value when it is a puff piece with misleading photos and down in the fine print says the problem of empty housing isn’t getting better at all. I’ve got nothing against any of these empty cities getting a few residents. I keep in mind that China has a blackout on reporting that doesn’t parrot the official line. This article is spoon fed, not investigative, so…
“Ghost towns, it turns out, are easier to fix than the masses of empty apartment towers wedged into the corners of urban centres across the country.”
Just wait until those empty towers start collapsing in a few years. You ain’t seen nothin’ yet…
Well if you have alternative facts as opposed to your opinion I would love to see them. So far I have just seen years of your opinion that China is imminently going to collapse but it does not happen. As said in the beginning it is hard to believe that the commodity markets would not see what you are claiming. The demand is real and well documented for the commodities.
Well…. not really…. Not at all.
The reality is China GPD is down 50% and falling as demand continues to collapse.
I don’t make many “imminent” predictions Dan. Your claim is preposterous. I am very skeptical of the sustainability of credit fueled bubbles and you are not. China is the poster child.
Go long the commodities echo bounce if you dare. You couldn’t be more wrong than you were before.
Several of my posts have not posted so I cannot answer you.
OK Dan. We’ll see together what all this leads to.
Yes. BTW, the responses did not have inappropriate language or were attacks on you.
You’re full of shit as usual.
When China’s house of cards finally implodes, it should come as a surprise to no one given the steady drumbeat of warnings of doom.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-economy-is-dangerously-close-to-unraveling-2017-02-18
And if you read marketwatch and do the exact opposite you are usually right. Do what the big boys do not what they tell the press.
‘Australia is headed for an “economic Armageddon”, with record household debt, record foreign debt and a massive housing bubble creating a perfect storm that could “wipe out” millions of families if there is a global shock.’
‘That is the apocalyptic warning of a former government economic advisor, who says the government needs to cut tax incentives such as negative gearing and welfare handouts and the RBA needs to increase interest rates in order to avoid a “devastating depression”.
‘Corporate governance specialist John Adams, who was an economics and policy advisor to Senator Arthur Sinodinos and management consultant to a big four accounting firm, believes he has found seven disturbing signs that the global economy is primed for a major fall.’
‘Worse still, Australia is particularly vulnerable because of significant structural imbalances, including record levels of household debt not seen since the lead up to the last great depression in the 1920s.’
“Australians should be concerned over the state of both the Australian and global economy,” Mr Adams toldnews.com.au.’
“The data clearly demonstrates that there are significant structural economic imbalances in the Australian economy. Significant expansion of the broad money supply and record low interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia as well as generous tax incentives and welfare provisions by the Federal Government have led Australians to amass record levels of personal debt which have fuelled the creation of asset bubbles, particularly in housing.’
‘Sign 6: Major International Asset Bubbles:There are significant asset bubbles in bonds, stocks and real estate in major economies such as the United States and China, which has been fuelled by the significant increases in global debt.’
‘For example, the Shiller PE Index in the United States which measures the price of a company’s stock relative to average earnings over the past 10 years is now at 28.85. This is the third highest recorded behind the Tech Bubble in 1999 and “Black Tuesday” in 1929.’
‘Sign 7: Global Derivatives Bubble’
“Global Derivatives Bubble”
$555 trillion. But does anyone really think it’ll pop? Nah. They’ll just sort of let it evaporate and reset. Oh, there will be a few losers. But what can they do about it? Central banking, y’know.
‘Sign 7: Global Derivatives Bubble’
Is this my cue to post the derivatives pictorial?
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/
What a contemptible, disgusting joke. At this point it’s completely meaningless.
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush
Yep. The full magnitude of the fraud won’t be evident until it all comes crashing down, unfortunately.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2017/02/stocks-and-precious-metals-charts-three.html
Yowza. Thanks for posting that.
That is a good one, thanks. It’s so far beyond absurd.
Colorado Housing Demand Craters 22% YoY
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/State/State_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
NorCal. Got pontoons? Kayaks?
What Record-Breaking Drought Means for California’s Future
By Tia Ghose, Senior Writer | April 8, 2015 10:25am ET
Wildfires, water rationing and snow-free mountaintops are all becoming the new norm in California.
The Golden State is experiencing the most severe drought on record, and research suggests the conditions will only worsen in the coming decades.
“Climate change is going to lead to overall much drier conditions toward the end of the 21st century than anything we’ve seen in probably the last 1,000 years,” said Benjamin Cook, a climatologist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City.
http://www.livescience.com/50417-california-drought-future.html
It sure is great to see California’s drought finally ending.
Oh wait!
Nation
New, more powerful storm takes aim at California
Rick Jervis | USA TODAY
Updated 4 hours ago
Still reeling from a recent storm that flooded highways, caused widespread power outages and led to several deaths, California officials and residents on Sunday braced for a new storm expected to be bigger and pack a more powerful punch.
Friday’s storm in Southern California dumped up to 10 inches of rain on the region and led to at least five deaths. But as that storm moved on after only a few hours, the new tempest, expected to hit Northern California late Sunday and linger through Tuesday, will be stronger and much bigger, with rain clouds stretching more than 1,000 miles across, said Jim Andrews, a meteorologist with AccuWeather.com.
…
How bad is it on the ground? And why are people getting caught in culverts or arroyos? I read that one guy was hiking and got swept up, don’t they realize flash floods can get ‘em?
We had relatives in from out of town over the weekend. We met for dinner Friday evening at a Mexican restaurant in Old Town San Diego. They shut down the half of the restaurant where water was leaking through the ceiling. The upside was that there was no shortage of open tables in the half of the restaurant that remained open.
Always a silver lining! Hope you had a good meal, I like Old Town SD, what I remember of it from the 1990s.
I’ll bet many people are finding leaks in buildings they didn’t know were there until now.
And if they don’t rip out and replace all that waterlogged wood and drywall, they’ll be serving up the good ‘ole mold burritos in a couple weeks. They aren’t so bad if you don’t mind some mild hallucinations.
From the Courier Mail Australia article
The industry regulator, the Queensland Building and Construction Commission, has come under fire for not acting sooner to shut Cullen down.
Regulation leads people to believe they are being protected and they let down their guard and don’t pay attention.
Will Brazilians Cancel Carnival?
Vanessa Barbara
FEB. 19, 2017
SÃO PAULO, Brazil — At least 48 towns or cities in eight Brazilian states have canceled Carnival festivities this year because they are suffering from the worst recession in the country’s recent history.
Just six months after the mega-event, the Barra Olympic Park looks like a ghost town; visitors say that the pool is filled with mud. Maracanã Stadium is damaged and completely abandoned. The Radical Park of Deodoro Sports Complex, whose swimming pool and grounds were supposed to remain open to the public, is closed. Guanabara Bay, where sailing and windsurfing events were held during the Games, is still polluted. The Olympic euphoria is definitely gone, as pensions and salaries are held up indefinitely and police officers fight against one another in the streets.
But tourists should not worry: Rio’s Carnival is still guaranteed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/19/opinion/will-brazilians-cancel-carnival.html
Keep think mind as pols of Dr stadium and other “stimulus” bs
Maracanã Stadium is damaged and completely abandoned.
That is astonishing, as Maracanã was originally built for the 1950 world cup and is basically the cathedral of Brazilian soccer. The 2014 World Cup Final between Germany and Argentina was played in Maracanã.
Then there were new stadiums built for the recent World Cup in what is basically Brazilian flyover that simply aren’t used at all because there are no local professional teams to use them.
I’ve heard that Carnival in Havana isn’t bad. Or you could just go to New Orleans for the lame Americanized version of it.
I starting my day with positive thoughts about the economy.
Wall Street apparently has abandoned hope that Yellen and company will follow through this year with their proposed series of rate hikes. Asset prices accordingly continue to become increasingly unmoored from underlying fundamental values.
B A N K R U P T
So long as asset prices continually levitate, the highly leveraged will continue to prosper.
I find it quite odd how corporations basically enrich themselves through stock buybacks. Seems like a no brainer if you can borrow money for nothing and buyback your own stock. Its like there is no risk at all.
There is no way bond rates will go up with the central banks basically buying most of the bonds with money conjured up out of thin air.
They went all in on propping up stock, bond and home prices.
“This has left many sellers trapped in homes that they would rather leave, creating a block in the market.”
This is the flip side of an oft-repeated refrain among California homeowners: ‘We couldn’t afford to buy our own home at today’s prices.’
London house prices post biggest drop in six years as buyers wait on the sidelines for further declines.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-20/london-house-prices-post-biggest-annual-decline-in-six-years
‘Houses in Germany’s cities are overvalued by as much as 30%, the Bundesbank warned on Monday, adding to fears of a housing bubble in Europe’s largest economy after years of ultralow interest rates.’
‘Prices for residential real estate rose by 8% last year in 127 cities, up from an average of 6.75% per year between 2010 and 2015, the German central bank said in its monthly report, published on Monday. Prices have risen by about two-thirds since 2010 in the seven biggest cities: Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Frankfurt, Stuttgart and Duesseldorf.’
‘That rate of growth “exceeded the development that is supported by fundamental demographic and economic factors,” the Bundesbank warned. The ECB’s stimulus policies–including a €2.3 trillion bond-purchase program–have helped to drive down borrowing rates across the 19-country eurozone. That has helped to support lending and growth but has also triggered side effects, including a surge in the prices of stocks, bonds, real estate and other assets.’
‘The Bundesbank has been among the fiercest critics of the ECB’s quantitative-easing program, and has warned repeatedly about the risks of keeping interest rates low for too long.’
In the early days of the Housing Bubble, Germany was regarded as an outpost of housing sanity where prices had not gone berserk.
I guess that ended at some point.
Germany still has bitter memories of hyperinflation caused by central bankers printing away government debts and liabilities. We all know how that ended.
And during that period was it a good or bad thing to have a fixed rate mortgage or debt of any kind?
MortgageSlavery is never a good thing Dan. Especially when you’re paying 300% premiums.
When I was in Munich I walked past a realtor’s office in the suburbs. Very ordinary houses had asking prices in the 1 million euro range and very vanilla flats were 500K+.
Now in Budapest suburbs, prices are about 10% of what they are in Munich.
How can we get rid of the New York Times?
Why would you want to get rid of a major independent information source?
That “independent” information source lied us into war in Iraq. Remember Judith Miller? And it gave, and continues to give us Paul Krugman. And that’s just for starters.
So I ask you, how can we get rid of the New York Times?
And to add, they were cheerleaders for the housing bubble. Not a peep about what was really going on. Does that look like an “independent news source”? More like a bought and paid for fake news source.
So how do we get rid of it before they assist in pushing us into yet another phony war?
+1
You can start by cancelling your subscription
I never had one, but the parents did, when I wuz a pup. Just for Sundays. That big fat load of newsprint landed in the driveway with a resounding “thwack!” in the wee hours. I dunno if you ever lived in the Mid-Atlantic area, or the southern part of the Northeast, but reading (or pretending to read) the Sunday NYT was a big ritual for many.
the sunday crossword was like scaling Mt. Everest.
. . . and in pen = no oxygen to summit.
pure badazz!
weekly cerebral-samurai-sunday-showdown. you better bring-it to fling-it cause you damn sure can’t wing-it!!
(geez, i feel like the Robot Wars MC)
apologies for thread hijack: getting cabin fever w/all the rain.
thought i saw twin girls in the hall the other day.
Yes, I grew up on Long Island and the Sunday morning NYT was a weekly staple inour house. Sometimes we had hot fresh NY bagels, and the Sunday sports section listed the batting and pitching statistics of every MLB player.
The Sunday New York Times was a special Sunday treat.
“That “independent” information source lied us into war in Iraq. Remember Judith Miller?”
I remember Fox News. But they’re not “independent” by any stretch of the imagination.
What’s the problem with Paul Krugman? Doesn’t he just write opinions?
I remember Fox News. But they’re not “independent” by any stretch of the imagination.
Neither is the NYT, or the Clinton News Network for that matter.
The Washington Post is even worse, especially since being bought by Jeff Bezos.
Palmy. i always wanted prisoners to be able to read the NYTimes in front of a parole board before they can ask to be let out on early release . they are functionally illiterate going into and coming out of jail….this has to end.
Kalaheo, FL Housing Prices Crater 15% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/kalaheo-hi/home-values/
Correction:
Kalaheo, HI Housing Prices Crater 15% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/kalaheo-hi/home-values/
Meanwhile, despite multiple bailouts and endless promises of reform, Greek bad debts just keep piling up. Sorry, Draghi, you won’t be able to print your way out of this mess.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/216305/article/ekathimerini/business/banks-worry-over-sudden-bad-loan-spike-in-january
Will Greece be the catalyst that brings down the ECB’s financial house of cards?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/19/grexit-talk-lenders-demand-austerity-greece-bailout-euro
Heckova job, Ben & Janet.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/02/19/2016-sp-500-earnings-back-at-2011-levels-as-stocks-ballooned-87-percent/
Sounds like a case of financial fraud on a massive scale:
“At the end of 2011, the S&P 500 index was at 1,257. Over the five-plus years since then, it has ballooned by 87%!
These are superlative numbers, and you’d expect superlative earnings performance from these companies. Turns out, reality is not that cooperative. Instead, net income of the S&P 500 companies is now back where it first had been at the end of 2011.
Hype, financial engineering, and central banks hell-bent on inflating asset prices make a powerful fuel for stock prices.”
China says: “I am going to get me some of that”:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/finance/News-of-pension-funds-in-stocks-boost-key-index/shdaily.shtml
Greedhead sellers in the high-end “luxury” housing market are being forced to accept deep price cuts if they want to make a sale.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/02/19/luxury-home-listings-overpriced-by-a-third-house-price-bubble/
who is going to the CROW bUFFET TODAY?
They have great sides of flamingo and anteater at that buffet too.
If the producer is the seller, they can slash by 50% and still earn a massive profit. If the seller was dumb enough to pay a 300% premium, he’s a got a problem. Hopefully the producer is whacking the price and undercutting resellers.
wow guyzz came across this FB page……
https://www.facebook.com/deadanddyingretail
damn interesting site: thanks NYCdj
Crow and a RageCage….. Fine dining and exquisite accommodations reserved exclusively for the enraged.
“Fukushima Aborts Latest Robot Mission Inside Reactor; Radiation At “Unimaginable” Levels”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-19/fukushima-aborts-latest-robot-mission-inside-reactor-radiation-unimaginable-levels
Meanwhile the west coast glows in the dark.
Your engagement with enragement is causing your derangement.
Try to avoid looking in the mirror while posting.
Clever Mafia. Only the dollar has been more debased than the stigma of being called a Nazi. Both examples are sad. If half the population of the U.S. is being called Nazis, it has lost all meaning.
When he invokes Goebbels he implies that we need to be exterminated.
It is a win/win Canada gets some renters for its overpriced property and Trump makes America great again:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/22-migrants-flee-us-to-seek-asylum-in-canada/articleshow/57245388.cms
Just 22? How about Canada take all 22 million of our illegals off our hands?
I like it. They have more empty land and plenty of water, it would be a great NAFTA export.