A Form Of Denial
A report from the Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Vacancy rates for almost every North Texas real estate sector are staying near recent lows. Less than 4 percent of Dallas-Fort Worth apartments are empty, even with several years of extensive building. The shopping center market is less than 8 percent vacant. And office space in the area sits at about 15 percent vacancy — pretty good for that business. Since we are more than five years into this property cycle, you can’t blame me for being nervous and keeping an eye on those vacancy rates. Dallas isn’t the only property market where things are in good shape.”
“‘At the national level, we feel like there is good balance right now,’ said Kenneth McCarthy, principal economist with Cushman & Wakefield Inc. ‘We are starting to see the amount of construction in the pipeline pick up. But it’s not anywhere near historic highs.’”
The Detroit Free Press in Michigan. “After several years of apartment scarcity in and around downtown Detroit, supply is starting to catch up with demand, prompting some building owners to offer rent deals and to shorten waiting lists. Hundreds of new market-rate rentals have opened in the city’s downtown and Midtown since last fall with hundreds more planned to open this spring. Local development experts point to the average 98% occupancy rate last year for residential buildings in greater downtown and say the inventory deluge doesn’t mean that the housing market is getting saturated or that the surge in new construction since 2013 was all a bubble.”
“For apartment-seekers, the recent flood of new apartments means they have more choices than ever in leasing rates and locations and more buildings offering a wide array of amenities, which some say Detroit has been lacking. It also could lead to more for-sale condos, which are still in scarce supply. ‘I think Detroit has been slow to build the type of product with all of these amenities that you might see in markets like Boston,’ said Sue Mosey, executive director of Midtown Detroit Inc.”
From Bloomberg on New York. “Luxury developer Toll Brothers Inc. has a deal for those shopping for a condo in Manhattan: buy something soon, and we’ll pay the taxes on your purchase. The publicly traded homebuilder is offering to pay the city transfer tax and the New York state ‘mansion tax’ — an effective discount totaling almost 2.5 percent — on deals made at three of its developments by Feb. 20, the company said in a statement. Toll’s offer comes as Manhattan developers contend with a market brimming with costly condos and buyers tepid about committing.”
“Builders hoping to boost sales in their projects are doing what they can to attract interest without officially lowering their prices — everything from offering gift cards and upfront commission to brokers, as well as payment of transfer taxes that, in a healthier market, are passed on to buyers, said Joshua Stein, a Manhattan real estate lawyer. ‘Developers like to pretend that values haven’t gone down,’ said Stein, who’s not involved in the Toll Brothers projects. ‘Eventually you’ll see discounting off the face price. But this is a form of denial.’”
The Minot Daily News in North Dakota. “The Minot-area real estate market has settled into calmer times as it moves away from the frenzied activity spurred by a flood and energy development. It’s meant a somewhat slower pace of sales and a leveling off of property prices. The number of homes being sold is down about a third from its peak but prices have seen only a small decline. If there’s a negative, it’s the impact the current market is having on homeowners who had purchased during the peak of the boom and now are needing to sell only a few years later, said Cindy Harvey, Realtor with Elite Real Estate and past president of the North Dakota Association of Realtors.”
“‘They are having a hard time walking away with a profit. I have seen people have to bring money to the table now,’ she said.”
This is a subscription report:
‘With Bay Area apartment rents headed for steep drop-off, investors should sell, report says’
‘San Francisco and Silicon Valley rents have peaked and are headed for a steep drop-off in the next three years, the Ten-X report predicts.’
Good luck with that selling.
Once it is common knowledge that investors should sell, there is a good chance that anyone who has not yet sold will get trampled in the rush to the exits.
Wow, this report forecasts a 20% vacancy in San Francisco and over 20% in San Jose.
Currently, with 600,000 apartment units in the SFBA, there is a 4.2% vacancy, or 25,000 units. Assuming the unit count grows to 645,000 (7.5%) in 2020, the 20% vacancy forecast indicates 130,000 vacant apartments. That’s going to make apartment hunting a lot for fun for renters.
Hope so. It’ll be amazing to watch if it really happens that way.
‘Interested private developers of affordable housing are supposed to get first crack when San Diego sets out to sell city-owned land. For at least the past decade, no such developers have been offered that opportunity. Property records show only one of the dozens of “surplus” city parcels put up for sale or lease since 2007 has been turned into affordable homes.’
‘Since 2007, the city has sold off more than 50 acres deemed in excess of its needs, including land already zoned for housing uses. Some parcels became parking lots, landscaping and office space. Others were part of access easements granted to builders of upscale housing in Otay Ranch. Still others remain vacant.’
‘San Diego still owns almost 37,000 acres with “no” or “unknown” land use restrictions, according to data found on the city’s website. Another 14 acres are now advertised for sale on the city’s real estate assets division webpage.’
Some shortage.
Sounds like a government-sponsored land shortage.
There was an article about San Diego’s housing affordability crisis in the weekend Union-Tribune. This passage caught my attention:
I couldn’t resist the temptation to do the math. At 20 vouchers a month, a wait list of 75,000 amounts to a waiting time of
75,000/20/12 = 312.5 years. Good luck at living long enough to get into an affordable San Diego home!
“we get it from the federal government.”
So taxpayers in blighted places like West Virginia and Michigan are helping pay for families to have affordable housing in sunny, prosperous San Diego? Hmm… I wonder if there’s someone recently ascended to a position of power who can remedy this imbalance.
“…are helping pay for families to have affordable housing in sunny, prosperous San Diego?”
Apparently, on average, only for those who survive over 300 years…
“balance” sounds so socialist.
San Diego isn’t the only place with decades long Section-8 waiting lists. In Denver, there’s a lottery to get on the waiting list.
Ever drive around Downtown Denver at 5-7:00am on a Saturday or Sunday recently? People sleeping on the sidewalks everywhere.
Ready Construction is hiring, and there are a lot of able-bodied looking panhandlers on the 16th Street Mall.
They might be able bodied, but other than lugging bricks I’d guess they’re useless.
yep, their addictions & drug use make them pretty much useless for any long term gainful employment.
though a few can work hard, then drink/sniff/snort/shoot-up their daily pay that night . . . and come back the next day ready to go. but that’s pretty rare.
used to be an asst. manager at AmeriTemps in Sarasota wayyyyyy back in the day. the major builders like Pulte would request a daily batch of 50 / 60 or more laborers.
really sad & depressing knowing they drank away their hard earned (and believe me, in that FL humidity it’s
“hard- earned”) pay every night.
I would like to get on a waiting list for a public land purchase, rather than San Diego selling the land for cheap to developers. Should there not at least be an auction rather than these corrupt sweetheart deals where the developers steal the public lands and then turn around and sell the land to the public?
How the Fed went from lender of last resort to destroyer of American wealth.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-fed-went-from-lender-last-resort-destroyer-american-booth
Bring peace and prosperity in our time: End the Fed!
Compared to the immediate post–World War II period, some American corporations now earn about five times more revenue from purely financial activities such as trading, hedging, tax optimization, and selling financial services, as compared to their core businesses.
Easy.frickn.peasy
“The percentage of U.S. adults invested in the stock market fell from 65 percent in 2007 to 52 percent by the spring of 2016, a twenty-year low.Though they might not be able to name the Fed as the party rigging the game, their instincts remind them about the old adage: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
People know the economy sucks. They feel wall street is just trying to game them again and steal their money like the last time.
“Easy.frickn.peasy”
Yes, so long as interest rates keep going ever lower.
Idiotic percentage of QE spent by the F 500 with that debt now on their balance sheets and their overpriced shares as the asset but subject to meltdown if world economy splashes!
F 500 with almost the same retained earnings held in foreign countries.
Why doesn’t the government force the repayment of these F 500 QE debts by repatriation of these foreign accounts?
Taxes have been paid in foreign countries and the payoff of USA debt will create capital gains taxes at today’s phony values.
15% average cost with two major benefits which could allow stocks to again be an investment vehicle for the little guy.
SHOCKER!!! (for reals) Greenspan says Ron Paul was right about the gold standard.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-20/alan-greenspan-ron-paul-was-right-about-gold-standard
Wut?
Related:
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/769288/Gold-Euro-Foreign-Exchange-Collapse-Alan-Greenspan
“Idiotic percentage of QE spent by the F 500 with that debt now on their balance sheets and their overpriced shares as the asset but subject to meltdown if world economy splashes!”
Obviously the S&P500 is too big to fail. Hence stock market investors need not worry about the Fed ever raising rates from rock bottom levels.
When Yellen is fired for being too academic - - and the Fed is viewed for what it should be - -
It is scary to think that rates have to go up but in so doing could cause as many problems as it solves - - we think
Above my pay grade.
“Everything’s fine, until it isn’t.”
- Alan Greenspan
‘Local development experts point to the average 98% occupancy rate last year for residential buildings in greater downtown and say the inventory deluge doesn’t mean that the housing market is getting saturated or that the surge in new construction since 2013 was all a bubble.’
This Detroit article is a classic example of what is now becoming the standard for a cities housing market hitting the wall. $300/month apartments turning onto $2,000/month luxury with hot tubs on the roof, etc. It always turns into a “gee whiz, could we have been blind to this all along?”
BTW, these Toll condos have been for sale since 2015.
If u travel a mile from Detroit ‘re is free
Just set up an armed perimeter
When you are renting a place for $88k a month do you need first, last and security up front?
Luxury rentals fill need in Greenwich market
By Macaela J. Bennett Updated 2:17 pm, Sunday, February 19, 2017
For rent this summer: a 6,700-square-foot, five-bedroom Backcountry home on 4 acres. Asking price: $88,000 per month.
Recent history shows it will likely rent for something close to that if not more.
http://www.westport-news.com/business/article/Luxury-rentals-fill-need-in-Greenwich-market-10940719.php
Motto of the MSM: Let’s you and them fight.
That post is either out of context, incoherent, or both.
Let’s you and them fight!
Incoherent.
I can’t help it if you don’t understand it But that’s what they do, try to set up fights between people and groups. It’s how they make their bread and butter.
“…try to set up fights between people and groups.”
Now THAT right there is ringing a bell! I can’t say exactly why…
“out of context,”
My sis and I had a discussion over the weekend about the MSM and the 1%, she came up with this “let’s you and them fight”. I liked it, agree with it and adopted it.
That’s what it’s all about, Bear, and that’s why you and I fight, if you really want to know.
“incoherent”
I know EXACTLY where this is coming from, too. Let me tell you, that’s some serious evil intention type crap, Bear. They’re (MSM and the globalists) fixing to label about half the country “mentally ill” and you know damn well why that is. Back atchoo.
Check out the WSJ take down of youtube phenom pewdiepie, the guy with the most subscribers on yt - Sargon of Akkad has some good videos analyzing the situation. Lamestream media is dying by a thousand cuts and assassinating the character of anyone who is successful at taking their share of the pie. I’m going to enjoy the likes of Carlos Slim, the Saudis, Soros and the rest losing vast amounts of money to tattooed millennials calling it as they see it.
I bet they see an army of racist mexican frogs when they close their eyes, lol!
Yah, I actually saw the Sargon analysis, never heard of him before, it was interesting. I had heard of PewDiePie, even saw a clip of one of his videos, not my thing, but yes, he’s a real phenomenon. 53 million viewers, holy cow! And his girlfriend with 7 million.
The WSJ thing blew my mind, it was so nasty, especially calling on Disney to drop him, which Disney promptly complied with. You ask me, I think they did him a favor as far as Disney goes, at least he won’t end up a drug-addled young has-been like many of their young “stars”.
There does seem to be some sort of “thing” going on regarding doing business on line, whether that be Youtube or selling on places like ebay or amazon, or promoting on twitter. If you do well, TPTB go nutz and throttle you, or shadowban, or whatever. You’d think they’d want people who use the services to do well, but they seem to be more about control.
ou’d think they’d want people who use the services to do well, but they seem to be more about control.
Funny how it always seems to come down to that.
“Funny how it always seems to come down to that.”
ED ZACHARY, Carl. I think you’ve hit on the universal truth of it. It’s not so much about the money, but the power that it can buy. I think there are those in the intelligence services, for example, who couldn’t care less about how much money they make (beyond being able to live comfortably and pay the bills), as long as they can pull the strings.
Cant stray far from the plantation unless you like the taste of jack boot - the scales are falling from peoples eyes about the statists control over every aspect of our lives.
Washington State Housing Demand Craters 17% YoY
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/State/State_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
Really HA? The entire state? Why not go big and do the entire west coast?
With your data-manipulation skills, you should be a PIO (public information officer). Maybe you could be on TV right now in northern California and tell everybody how there is nothing to worry about at the Oroville dam.
Data my good friend. Stick with the data.
Seattle, WA Housing Demand Craters 19% YoY
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/City/City_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
“Here’s your crow”
Poet…. Pull yourself up out of that gutter and cheer up and remember….. Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.
Bend, OR Housing Prices Nosedive 31% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/bend-or/market-trends/
u need to work for yellen and co with all the bs stats u can drum up.
HA is very foolish. He believes fewer housing sales is the result of lower demand. The reality is the demand is very high, but transactions are fewer because no one is selling. This is explained below, showing 21% fewer active listings versus 1 year ago:
KIRKLAND, Washington (Feb. 6, 2017) - Western Washington’s “high velocity” market continued during January with the number of pending sales (7,745) outgaining the number of new listings (6,507), according to new figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
“Properties are moving through the market at an unusually fast pace,” remarked John Deely, chairman of the board at Northwest MLS and the principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain. “Although we have a high number of new listings, they are moving into a pending or sold status within the typical 30-day reporting period. This phenomenon causes a low active listing count,” he added.
Brokers added 6,507 new listings to inventory last month (163 fewer than during the same period a year ago), while year-over-year pending sales jumped by 492 transactions for a gain of about 6.8 percent. New listing volume was the highest monthly total since October when members added 7,591 properties.
At month-end, there were 9,752 active listings in the MLS service area, which encompasses 23 counties. That total was 2,605 fewer than the year-ago volume of 12,357, a decline of 21 percent. Only three counties (Ferry, Jefferson and Kitsap) reported improvements in the number of active listings compared to the same month last year.
Measured by months of inventory, the selection is at historic lows in many counties. At month end, there was just under 1.7 months of supply system-wide, which compares to the year-ago figure of about 2.5 months of supply. Both King and Snohomish counties have less than one month of supply.
“If home buyers were hoping that January would start to bring more balance to the housing market, they’re going to be sorely disappointed. The number of homes for sale remains at record lows, and the growth in pending sales tells us that sellers are still firmly in the driver’s seat,” said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate.
“…the inventory deluge doesn’t mean that the housing market is getting saturated or that the surge in new construction since 2013 was all a bubble.”
MSM bubble denial is a clear signal of an incipient crash.
“MSM bubble denial”
Why would you slur independent news sources?
Just because independent news sources aren’t always right doesn’t mean they aren’t valuable, especially for offsetting the forces of propaganda and tyranny that threaten the hard-won individual liberties which are the heritage left to all Americans by the Founding Fathers.
Independent news sources certainly are. However, when they have a political agenda, they are not offsetting propaganda they are propaganda. The NYT has the party paper of the Democrats for decades.
“The NYT has the party paper of the Democrats for decades.”
It’s the party pooper for cat boxes and verbal diarrhea, a la Krugman.
They supported Barney Frank’s assertion that there was nothing wrong with Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and we should all support the policy of giving anyone a mortgage that can fog a mirror because it reduced the disparity in homeownership between the races.
“…it reduced the disparity in homeownership between the races.”
Sure it did, right up until when subprime blew up and left myriad black families jobless, underwater and on the path to foreclosure. At that point, Democrat housing policy became racis’.
Not Barney Frank’s fault, I’m sure:
For The Black Middle Class, Housing Crisis And History Collude To Dash Dreams
September 2, 2016 4:29 PM ET
Heard on All Things Considered
Grattan (left) and Evelyn Betancourt stand in front of their home in Fort Washington, Md., in one of the wealthiest majority-black counties in the United States: Prince George’s, just east of Washington, D.C. But the reality, Grattan says, is “that many people here, even though they’ve lived here for many years, are fighting to save their homes” — the Betancourts among them.
Mallory Yu/NPR
Evelyn and Grattan Betancourt bought their “forever” home in 1986. It’s two-stories tall, with a brick front and a wide lawn. Some evenings, deer come out of the woods and linger in their yard.
“This was our first, and it’ll be our only home,” says Evelyn.
The Betancourts live in Fort Washington, Md., located in one of the wealthiest majority-black counties in the United States: Prince George’s, just east of Washington, D.C.
The median income in the county of about 900,000 people is $73,000 a year — more than $20,000 higher than the national average.
But not all is what it seems.
“When you look at this neighborhood, it has kind of a look of middle class prosperity,” Grattan says. “But the reality is — and we’re aware of this — that many people here, even though they’ve lived here many years, are fighting to save their home.”
Around the country, black middle class neighborhoods have recovered from the housing crash much more slowly than white neighborhoods.
More than a quarter of the homes in Prince George’s County are underwater — in other words, the owners owe more than the homes are worth.
And the Betancourts are among them. Their home is worth a little more than $300,000. But they owe nearly $500,000 on it.
…
Dumb question of the day: How do white Democrat politicians win by encouraging black families to mire themselves in an unrepayable mortgage debt burden, leading these households on a path to bankruptcy and financial ruin?
“…Housing Crisis And History Collude To Dash Dreams…”
You see, it was an accident of history that a historic housing crisis came out of nowhere to sink the fortunes of the very people that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were trying to help. Bad policy had nothing to do with it!
Around the country, black middle class neighborhoods have recovered from the housing crash much more slowly than white neighborhoods.”
Why is this?
Evelyn and Grattan Betancourt bought their “forever” home in 1986. [...] Their home is worth a little more than $300,000. But they owe nearly $500,000 on it.
Wait a second, their 30yr purchase-money mortgage should have been PAID OFF last year!!!
The answer is in the article:
“In the Betancourts’ case, they had almost paid off their mortgage in 2005, when Grattan needed open-heart surgery…She liquidated everything and took out a loan on the house to pay her husband’s medical bills.”
NPR then went on to talk about how much of PG County is underwater in their homes.
NRP is manipulating the news, the say the least. This is a health insurance issue, not a housing issue. And definitely not a race issue. But health insurance is *so* 2010.
They lied to you, Bear. They lied through their frickin’ teeth about the bubble and you know it. They deliberately lied and supported the FED and the masters of the universe. And because of that, you can’t afford a house where you live. Not now, maybe not ever. You could get tossed out on your arse any minute and have to go back to Indiana. Or have your nuts squeezed until they pop. And that sucks when you’re a member of the credentialed class.
So much for “offsetting the forces of propaganda and tyranny that threaten the hard-won individual liberties which are the heritage left to all Americans by the Founding Fathers.”
There’s your heritage and hard won individual liberty, right there. Loserville.
I’d rather be lied to by a bunch of newspapers than by dictator who has shut them all down.
http://frankwarner.typepad.com/free_frank_warner/2008/09/barney-frank-op.html
“I’d rather be lied to by a bunch of newspapers than by dictator who has shut them all down.”
Oh, please. Got Depends? ’cause that’s some major bedwetting right there.
Just so everyone understands, I like PB (he may not like me much, but I do like him, actually, and enjoy having a good go-round or two with him, I’ve really missed it.)
“…he may not like me much, but I do like him, actually,…”
Don’t worry, pal, we’re good. I’m not sufficiently masochistic to read and post here if I didn’t enjoy the engagement. I have no problem with people whose world views differ from mine, which apparently is almost everyone.
+1 Pbear.
“a bunch of newspapers than by dictator who has shut”
Well, that’s not +1.
I’m interested in what is happening with the press. I am seeing a ton of circular agenda driven BS, but not a dictator shutting down the news.
Cognitive dissonance is deep today, Bear.
Issaquah, WA Housing Prices Crater 19% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/issaquah-wa/market-trends/
Issaquah, WA, 98029
Wrong side of the tracks.
Unless you like the wrong side and then it’s the right side.
county assessments dead flat 0
wow, that has to pucker some county officials
they have to raise the rate so they can retire in their 50’s
get’s dicey
Why municipal governments have a vested financial interest in denying that they are in a housing bubble.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/02/20/why-toronto-and-other-cities-inflate-housing-bubbles-to-the-bitter-end/
Their raises depend on higher property taxes.
Thousand Oaks, CA Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/thousand-oaks-ca/market-trends/
NO MORE FAKE NEWS!
Falls Church, VA Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/falls-church-va/market-trends/
LOL. Good one AZ
Median $/sqft didnt change on the same graph. more fake news
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/dubai-tenants-warned-study-contracts-before-signing-663934.html
Heck of a rain storm here in San Jose, CA today.
Rescheduled my trip there. Not worth messin’ with it.
“At Least 4 Dead Amid Major Flooding And Mudslides As Biggest Storm In Years Barrels Into LA Area”
Landslides, earthquakes, Fukushima radiation, crime, Ebola and poverty. California has so much to offer.
Don’t forget wildfires.
Is Nancy Negative partners with Lola? You have so much fear to offer, thanks for sharing from upper NY.
life is good!
There is no need to cower my friend. Will the last person leaving CA please turn out the lights?
California Debt Rises To A Record $433 Billion
http://uscommonsense.org/research/unsustainable-california-the-top-10-issues-facing-the-golden-state-wall-of-debt/
So is new attitude the old Lola?
Or has the boy from Brazil left the blog?
ABQ - I thought you were lola, love of all things Chinese?
ABQ is getting slammed, fear of gov cutbacks at the labs?? maybe? Tough town to live in if you have kids in school.
No kids in schools and no problems, I travel all over the West and I seldom are in the Albuquerque area, why do you think I am so concerned with housing prices in the area, housing is a very small part of my wealth and my expenses, I bought in the area precisely because the land was so cheap. My structure is very energy efficient, my taxes are low and my mortgage, even before considering tax savings, is less than a third of the average rent in San Diego and a sixth of what it would be in Coronado which is the only part of San Diego I would really like to live in ignoring price.
ABQ - congratulations you live in a very high crime city but it does not cost much. How rare.
Just looking for some insight as to why no buyers are showing up.
I live in a very safe neighborhood in the Albuquerque area. No, I do not think you are looking for insights. I think you are trying to get under my skin. What you do not understand that in flyover land we do not obsess over property values because the houses in general are so cheap. Many of us, and I include myself, have most of our wealth outside our homes. I do not have all my eggs in a basket and a property crash would not cause me any huge problems. With Californians living with 50 miles of the coast, a property crash would make them suicidal which probably explains your obsession. No time to play today, this will have to be the last post.
Go f%#k yourself HA. It’s not odd that you would make light of people dieing in Ca. Your such a piece of chit.
Housing my friend housing!
Cupertino, CA Rental Rates Plunge 8% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/cupertino-ca/home-values/
Uh oh
scdave is off the rails again.
Much more of that and the people who keep track of such things are going to show up and want to look in your freezer sc.
http://everything2.com/title/the+contents+of+Jeffrey+Dahmer%2527s+apartment
It’s a shame. Spending your productive years servicing massive debts can make a person bitter indeed.
Illegal?
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/1-officer-dead-another-injured-in-shootout-in-southern-california/ar-AAn8SYZ?li=BBnb7Kz
Landslides, earthquakes, Fukushima radiation, crime, Ebola and poverty. California has so much to offer.
All true. But a little rain hasn’t seemed so bad compared to the rest of the family buried in snow in the Rockies. A few days of that at Christmas was enough for the whole year. I can see why people like it if there just weren’t so many of them.
Really? It’s no big deal by Seattle standards :-). I went outside around noon and it was pretty light, but got heavier again an hour or two ago. Nothing crazy though.
I had a few customers who canceled meetings due to them hunkering down. Not sure of their details but it made more sense to postpone until next week. But yeah, it’s a little damp up here (Portland) too.
“Really? It’s no big deal by Seattle standards :-).”
The return flows have made it into downtown SJ today… flooded in many areas and the airport too. Sewage commingled with runoff.
Light rain here today filling up the reservoirs, no worries, only a few trees down over the week. All the hills are very green, makes for great photos.
Hollywood, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/hollywood-los-angeles-ca/home-values/
A followup to yesterday’s Israel article. Sell, Mortimer, sell!
http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-realtors-urging-sellers-to-close-deals-fast-1001177793
“Shaul says, “Up until recently, whenever we would try to find someone to talk about a bubble in residential real estate prices and a possible bursting of the bubble, all we heard from interested parties in the capital market was mainly things like, ‘a lack of supply’ and ‘prices are only going up’ - declarations that are often obviously designed to attract buyers, who won’t buy a home if they’re told that the price will be cheaper tomorrow.”"
“”People are doing anything to sell. My clients call me and ask me, ‘Why did my neighbor sell his home within a few days, while I haven’t been able to do it in several months’”
“”The problem is that the prices are insane. I’ve been working in this sector for six years, and I never guessed that prices would reach such levels. An apartment I sold for NIS 400,000 is now being sold for NIS 1.2 million. No one’s salary has gone up like that.”"
“The Ministry of Finance figures showing a decline in purchases by investors fail to impress Shaul. He says the story is much more complicated: “It’s not because of the investors. I ask an unfortunate couple in town seeking to buy a home who are NIS 30,000 short how much their salary went up in recent years. It’s usually a few hundred shekels, if at all, while at the same time, housing prices spurted by hundreds of thousands of shekels. People just can’t get the money.
“”People are doing anything to sell. My clients call me and ask me, ‘Why did my neighbor sell his home within a few days, while I haven’t been able to do it in several months’
““The problem is that the prices are insane. I’ve been working in this sector for six years, and I never guessed that prices would reach such levels. An apartment I sold for NIS 400,000 is now being sold for NIS 1.2 million. No one’s salary has gone up like that.” “
Poster will say here, “I don’t think there’s a bubble.”
There’s a bubble and it already popped!
More Airbnb backlash..
http://fortune.com/2017/02/19/corporate-landlord-sues-airbnb/
“Real estate experts speaking to The Wall Street Journal say the suit is the first of its kind by a major landlord, opening a thorny new front in the booking platform’s ongoing regulatory and legal struggles.”
“AIMCO is now further claiming that Airbnb encourages its tenants to break their lease conditions, which prohibit renters from offering short-term subleases. AIMCO further claims Airbnb guests have caused property damage to buildings and, as AIMCO’s CEO wrote in a statement, created “disrespectful and unsafe conditions” for residents.”
“AIMCO operates in 23 states and houses 250,000 residents, according to the company.”
Socialism is good for weight loss.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/02/20/study-venezuelans-lost-19-lb-on-average-over-past-year-due-to-lack-food.html
They were eating up all their flamingos too. Poor flamingos. There are several flamingo recipes online, actually. Though, I couldn’t find any recipes for the anteaters. It’s called pangolin and it’s like “bush meat”, and seems to be illegal in some places. You can make shields out of their scales.
ABQ Dan assures us that all is well with China.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-20/people-are-suddenly-very-worried-about-china
As I said earlier today I am not interested in what the big boys are saying only what they are doing. Most of the time what they are saying for public consumption is opposite of what they are doing you get a better price that way.
Having had time to read the report I do not think the headline fits the story. It seems to be a balanced report which I think confirms what I have been saying. While China cannot go on indefinitely without a recession, it has plenty of policy tools to stabilize the economy for the foreseeable future, hence the commodity recovery.
So, let’s say you are a big boy.
I think what you’re missing is that commodities were in the process of recovering and are at the moment backsliding in some instances. It is very closely related to housing, credit and construction. Credit/construction expansion or not.
Here is link that is saying things I have been saying about China for years:
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-02/20/c_136071268.htm
ABQ, you said above:
-> “As I said earlier today I am not interested in what the big boys are saying only what they are doing. Most of the time what they are saying for public consumption is opposite of what they are doing you get a better price that way.”
—
In the link you posted above, do these qualify as “the big boys” ?
“Jim O’Neill, former chief economist at Goldman Sachs, is also less worried about risks due to the fact that Chinese consumer spending has remained strong despite the slowdown in industrial output and investment.”
“Justin Lin Yifu, former World Bank Chief Economist, agrees that China still has significant room to grow as its per capita income lags far behind that of the United States.”
—
Big boys, yes? If so, they are publicly expressing significant optimism. Which, according to what you said about what the big boys say publicly — shouldn’t we interpret this to be the opposite of what they are *doing*? Like, we should be skeptical of what they are saying publicly, and should be going short China. Or, maybe this is one of those cases where they do mean what they say publicly. Who knows. Do you?
Or, maybe this is one of those cases where they do mean what they say publicly. Who knows. Do you?
No, so I would rather just look at what commodity prices are doing and infer that if they are not falling the commodity players large and small do not see an imminent collapse in China since that would take down all commodities hard and soft.
ABQ flip flop…
China is going down, and it will be epic.
btw that guy Jim O’Neill is a real globalist. I never knew, he was the British Treasury Minister too, and seemed like he was fighting with Theresa May about Chinese investments in the UK.
From last summer.
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-former-goldman-star-oneill-may-quit-uk-government-over-china-ft-2016-7
“O’Neill had been heavily involved in former finance minister George Osborne’s push for a “Golden Era” of relations between the two countries, largely based on courting Chinese investment in British infrastructure.”
–
He eventually did quit the UK government. But he’s still out there publicly bullish on China.
Will that dog climb?
And if it does, will it eat?
Silverton, OR Housing Prices Plummet 8% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/silverton-or/home-values/
For decades, Greeks voted for socialist and crony-capitalist governments that promised something for nothing. Now they’re reaping what they voted.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/seven-years-bailouts-greeks-sink-yet-deeper-poverty-155816113–business.html
Did she do it?
Bobbie Gentry - Ode To Billie Joe 1967
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXTv4cOALAM
From Australia’s news yesterday.
http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/robert-simeon/65724-the-ticking-time-bomb-in-our-property-markets-robert-simeon.html
“It is estimated that Sydney now has well over 100,000 permanently vacant apartments so they should be rented out to ease the rental crisis.”
–
Vancouver has something like 63,000 vacant houses (though some are abandoned/damaged). I don’t recall reading before that Sydney has “well over 100,000″ permanently vacant apartments. That’s a lot.
“Since 2009, Sydney home values have doubled and Melbourne have climbed 85 percent”
That’s normal.
HSBC crashes the most since 2008 on “surprise” revenue plunge. (The kind analysts never see coming).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-21/canary-contained-coalmine-hsbc-crashes-most-crisis-surprise-revenue-plunge
Yet Yellen purports to see no bubbles.
http://www.businessinsider.com/atlantic-equities-initiates-neutral-on-snap-2017-2
China “core” population set to peak this year and decline significantly for the next 25 years. It’s a fact that requires no crystal ball. This as their explosive debt accumulation tops $35Tr. That’s about $50,000 per working age stiff. The author thinks debt in China will continue to grow exponentially and blow bubbles around the world for years.
https://econimica.blogspot.gr/2017/02/global-economic-growth-is-presently-all.html
Dawg
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