February 25, 2017

An Analogy From The Housing Bubble

A report from Hoosier Ag Today. “Indiana farmland value decreased by an average of 7.1 percent in 2016 according to the newest report from Farm Credit Mid-America. The report also shows a slight drop in Kentucky but increases in average value for Ohio and Tennessee. Dennis Badger, Vice President Collateral Risk Management explains the fall in values comes just a few years after hitting all-time highs. ‘Actually in 2010 is when we’ve seen one of our largest spikes where Indiana showed a 27 percent increase,’ he said. ‘This past year, in 2016 the overall average for Indiana was 7.1 percent decline. The prior year, 2015 it was a 2.7 percent decline, so the rate of decline has increased for Indiana.’”

“Does the drop suggest a coming crisis? Badger says no. ‘Real estate like everything is cyclical, so when you had the highs of 2010 and the 27 percent increases, you’re also going to see a retraction where it comes back again, almost like a pendulum. So, the pendulum is heading back the other direction. It’s certainly not like a balloon that is popping I’ve heard as an analogy from the housing crisis, the housing bubble. We don’t think it’s anything near that magnitude. Certainly, some of the other factors such as commodity prices right now, the net farm income is certainly another concern. So, there are some variables that people want to be mindful of.’”

The Bakersfield Californian. “Agricultural land values in the Central Valley, and Kern County, have slipped a bit but most analysts aren’t worried about a major drop. Though water will become a larger question mark in coming years. For now, analysts are looking at the recent dip in values as more of a ‘breather’ from the meteoric rates at which ag land values shot up between 2010 and 2015. Does that mean high values are a bubble? No, said Roland Fumasi, an analyst with Rabobank’s Fresno-based RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness division. ‘Because prices are supported by economic reasons,’ he said.”

“The biggest drop in Kern will be for land planted in pistachios, Fumasi said. He’s projecting a 13 percent drop from a high of about $38,000 per acre in 2015 to about $33,000 an acre by the end of 2017. For almond lands, Fumasi is projecting a 9 percent drop in valuation from a high of $35,000 per acre in 2015 to $32,000 by the end of 2017. Almond acreage, unlike pistachio and other acreage, enjoys some beneficial factors that help buoy its value. Though the price per pound has dropped from about $5 to around $2.60, Associate Rabobank Analyst James Williamson said that is still profitable for farmers.”

The National Hog Farmer. “Don’t cut the farm bill is the message that over 500 national, state and local agricultural, conservation and nutrition groups are telling the Senate and House Budget Committees as it prepares the Fiscal Year ’18 budget. The groups say, ‘With the agriculture and rural economy struggling, households across the country struggling to meet their basic needs for nutrition, and farm income down 46% from only three years ago, it would be perilous to hinder development and passage of the 2018 farm bill with further cuts.’”

The Seymour Tribune. “Farmers should start seeing improvement in grain prices this year — a trend expected to continue through at least 2019.Chris Hurt, editor of Purdue Agricultural Economic Report delivered that message to the group of farmers and agribusiness men and women in Brownstown. ‘We’re now producing more than we can consume,’ he said. ‘There’s lots of wheat in the U.S. — the highest since 1986. The corn inventory is the highest in 11 years, and the soybean inventory is the highest in a decade. When you have inventories at decade highs, prices are probably going to be down there at decade lows.’”

From Agri-News. “Net incomes for Illinois grain farms are projected lower in 2017 than for 2016. If these projections hold, weakening of financial position will continue in 2017. Net incomes on grain farms likely will remain at low levels as long as corn prices remain below $4 per bushel. After being at higher levels from 2010 to 2012, net incomes decreased each year from 2012 to 2015. In 2015, net incomes averaged $500 per farm, the lowest level of any year between 1995 and 2015, and well below an income level needed to result in stable financial positions on grain farms.”

“As usual, farm incomes will range considerably across farms. Those farms that had average yields or below will face considerably lower incomes, as appears to be the case in southern Illinois.”

The Ag Watch Network. “Farm income continued to drop across the areas of the Midwest and the Midsouth during the fourth quarter of 2015 compared with the previous year, according to latest Agricultural Finance Monitor published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Meanwhile, the average value of quality farmland, as well as ranchland and pastureland, also declined.”

“During the fourth quarter, bankers reported a continued drop in farm income compared with the same period a year ago. Based on a diffusion index methodology with a base of 100 (results above 100 indicate proportionately higher income compared with the same quarter a year earlier; results lower than 100 indicate lower income), the farm income index value was 28. This was the sixth consecutive quarter that this value fell below 100, and the lowest level recorded since the survey began in 2012. Looking ahead at the first quarter of 2016, an even greater percentage of bankers indicated they expect income to continue to decline.”

“‘Crop and cattle prices are down, but input costs are rising at a slower pace, a Kentucky lender said. ‘I expect capital expenditures to decrease along with devaluation in farm real estate.’”

The Tri-State Livestock News. “Farmland values have declined, according to reports issued by the Federal Reserve banks in Chicago, Kansas City, St. Louis and Dallas. ‘Bankers across the 10th District noted that persistent weakness in farm income continued to weigh on farmland values,’ they wrote. ‘Although most farmland purchases in the quarter were financed with new debt, the portion of new loans with a cash down payment decreased. The persistent and widespread deterioration in farm income has occurred alongside increasing loan demand and lower repayment rates. These trends are expected to continue in the first quarter of 2017.’”

The Ag Professional. “The Fed reports, which contained concerning news for farmers, came on the heels of USDA’s forecast that U.S. farm incomes will drop 8.7% in 2017, and on the same day that The Wall Street Journal ran a front page story titled, ‘The Next Farm Bust is Coming.’ David Oppedahl, Senior Business Economist at the Chicago Fed pointed out that, ‘Since their 2013 peaks, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan farmland values have experienced real declines of 11 percent, 7 percent, and 12 percent, respectively. Additionally, since their 2012 peak, Iowa farmland values have experienced a real decline of 15 percent.’”

“The volume of the farm loan portfolio deemed to have ‘major’ or ‘severe’ repayment problems grew to 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, matching the share in 2002 and the highest such proportion in 15 years. ‘[S]urvey respondents forecasted the downward trends for farmland values and agricultural credit conditions to continue into 2017,’ the report added.”

“The Kansas City Fed added that, ‘Farm income also weakened in the fourth quarter. In fact, farm income fell for the fifteenth consecutive quarter, the longest such streak in survey history. Moreover, 70 percent of bankers expected the downward trend to continue in the first quarter of 2017.’”

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-02-25 18:43:00

San Rafael, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% YoY On Skyrocketing Bay Area Inventory


Comment by oxide
2017-02-25 19:16:47

Sorry but i didn’t get to this until now. From yesterday:

Comment by oxide
2017-02-24 08:58:05

I predict that oil prices will hit $80 before median single-family semi-detached or detached houses go back down to 2010 prices.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-02-24 09:05:55

‘I predict that oil prices will hit…’

Waiter, better send another plate of crow to the oil analyst from Maryland.

No Ben, I can’t let you get away with twisting my post I did NOT predict that oil prices will hit $80/bbl. I predicted that an $80/bbl price is *more likely* to happen than a crash to 2010 prices. Neither has to happen.

Also let me reiterate that I said detached or semi-detached SFH. Not condos or apartments. Almost all of your domestic articles have been about price reductions in apartments or ultra-luxury ($3mil+) houses. Even standard $900K McMansions don’t appear to be crashing, much less 3/2 ranches at $325K.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-02-25 19:34:39

Something has to go first. And the three recent articles on price declines in Austin TX, for instance, didn’t involve high end nor were energy related. What about Naples FL? They’ve got new houses selling for less than existing, down around 300k. What about the buyers market in Santa Maria CA? I could go on. If you aren’t paying close enough attention, well I am.

Comment by oxide
2017-02-26 05:32:39

Thank you Ben. This is kind of discussion is why I come to HBB. The $325K figure is for the DC area which has a stronger job base than Naples (jobs paid with a bottomless well of borrowed money, yes, but jobs and money are jobs and money.) I’ll have to look at Austin.

Right now, ultra-luxury and lolzapts and condos are going first, for sure. At least in my area, SFH will likely go last, and it could be another 4-5 years. Certainly there’s going to be price discovery and a floor, but will that be 2010 prices? Every year that takes us further from 2010 makes me think that prices are not going to crash below that.

Comment by Karen
2017-02-26 14:35:46

Things always revert to the mean.

If you believe housing isn’t going to crash even to 2010 prices, which were high, then you must believe wages are going to triple or quadruple to meet these prices and put them back in line with historical ratios.

I think pigs will fly first.

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Comment by oxide
2017-02-26 19:00:07

You’re thinking that housing has to drop to a price where Joe-6-pack wage earner can afford to buy it. This isn’t necessarily true. We saw from 2009-2012 that there are a host of other buyers willing to step in where wage-earners didn’t: flippers, fixers, investors-to-rent, and Chinese.

And given the low interest rates and two-income households, house *prices* do NOT have to align with historical (income) ratios. Prices need only align with the historical formula of PITI being 28% of gross income. Using that formula, an $80K household can afford a $329K house with 10% down. With two incomes in a household being the norm, $80K isn’t that hard to make.

Comment by Karen
2017-02-26 19:41:33

Prices need only align with the historical formula of PITI being 28% of gross income.

What historical formula is that? People have only been taking out 30-year mortgages for a few decades.

We have 600 years of house prices to look at.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-02-26 19:42:27

e saw from 2009-2012 that there are a host of other buyers willing to step in where wage-earners didn’t: flippers, fixers, investors-to-rent, and Chinese.

And those people were on schedule to learn their lesson when someone put their finger on the scale to save the bankers and in the process taught all those people the wrong lesson. A lesson they will still probably have to learn in the future.

Comment by FED Up
2017-02-27 17:22:04

Actually, the historical rule of thumb was 3 times income is your maximum house price. The maximum house price for the $80,000 salary would be $240,000, not $330,000.

But, then it would be harder for all the bankers to live like kings and the realtards to run around in luxury cars.

Also, the $80,000 household would have an easier time saving for a $48,000 downpayment than a $66,000 downpayment.

I have a personal finance book by the Wall Street Journal that was published in 1992 and it suggests 2.5 times income for your maximum house price.

Wow, what a novel idea, not spending all your earnings on an overpriced crap shack, so you can save some money for retirement, emergencies, college, etc.

And if $80,000 is so easy to make, why is the median HOUSEHOLD income $52,000?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-02-25 19:49:18

Donk…. Low, mid and high end prices are falling.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-02-25 20:19:46

No Ben, I can’t let you get away with twisting my post I did NOT predict that oil prices will hit $80/bbl. I predicted that an $80/bbl price is *more likely* to happen than a crash to 2010 prices. Neither has to happen.

I know just like my earlier $100 it was a prediction of which was more likely

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-02-25 21:28:18

‘I know just like my earlier $100 it was a prediction of which was more likely’

You are more of a comedy thing now, but we’ll check back.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-02-26 10:09:50

I know just like my earlier $100 it was a prediction of which was more likely

Ha, not my recollection AbqDan. Care to back that up with a link to your comment?

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-02-26 10:33:03

$100 oil crushes economic activity rather dramatically. Can China pull off another $30 Trillion borrowing/building binge?

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-02-25 20:57:56

It is ironic Oxy that you jumped on the first correction in SFH, and now you think it is out of harm’s way of the next.

Comment by oxide
2017-02-26 06:11:15

Hiya Blue. I don’t think SFH are out of harm’s way at the moment, but I *do* think SFH of 2010 are fairly safe. It might crash back to 2010, but below? I’m skeptical. The bottom feeders were out in full force in 2010 and I think if prices started crashing they would jump even before dropping that far again.

For me, I have a bit of an advantage. In two years I will ~1/3 equity in my house at 2012 pricing. I doubt that prices will fall 1/3 below 2012 pricing. Even if I rented I don’t think I could have saved that much. So I’ll still be above water.

I realize that we are in a huge credit expansion and at some point credit is going to contract. And if the contraction is bad enough then *nobody* will get credit and everyone can only afford to buy with their pile of cash money. At that point it would be SHTF time anyway. At worst I’d just default with dignity like everyone else.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-02-26 10:12:10

For me, I have a bit of an advantage. In two years I will ~1/3 equity in my house at 2012 pricing. I doubt that prices will fall 1/3 below 2012 pricing.

It sounds as though you believe that that gives you some security; it doesn’t—it merely gives your LENDER some security that you won’t walk.

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Comment by @AltFacts
2017-02-26 00:40:30

Once the Housing Bubble ultimately recedes, it could surprise to the downside, much as the Baltic Dry Index did in recent years, or for that matter, as oil recently did, much to Albuquerquedan’s crow dining pleasure.

Comment by azdude
2017-02-26 06:53:18

your crystal ball doesnt have a good history.

Comment by Neuromance
2017-02-26 16:41:06

What is the general consensus about what caused the house price deflation last time, in 2008 till about 2011?

The factors I see were:
• Limited availability of credit.
• Drop in employment reducing house demand.
• Speculators pulling out of the market after sensing price downdrafts.

Identifying the triggers of house price deflation from last time will provide some more insight about the market.

One thing I have noticed on Zillow - even in Virginia (a poster yesterday posted about Sterling, Va), in one of the Sterling zip codes (20164), 2/3rds of the inventory is distressed. I don’t know if Zillow is presenting the information differently or what. If the information is accurate, my guess for the cause is that the GSE loan limits are too high for the typical buyer, who’s being put on a foreclosure conveyor belt.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-02-26 19:06:41

Triggers. Herd mentality. Greed. Fear. Panic.

Trouble is Neuro, there is never an adequate logical explanation for a mania, or how it crashes. The best you can do is to sit up in the bleachers with some popcorn.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-02-27 00:08:41

Oversupply (we were building 2MM+ housing units per year).

Hoards of people were lent money where they could only afford the “teaser rates”…prices were based on many such loans.

The hoards of people being lent money is what drove prices unsustainably high.

There will be lots of debate about what caused prices to crack…I think it was a lot of factors…effectively the bubble collapsing upon itself. Once the overall number of eager sellers exceeded the number of eager buyers (which was easy since so many people were buying more than one home as “investments”), I think that was the last straw…and then high leverage crazy finance was the first push downward (while Prime loans were a major part of the slide down, subprime was the initial leg down).

However, the reason for the bulk of the slide was the way people purchased homes at that price, with leverage. When the sentiment is positive, it’s easy to justify borrowing when 1) debt is thrown at you; and 2) $5 invested can become $10 in theoretical equity with just a 5% move in prices (in a market where prices are moving at more than 5% per year).

It’s impossible to justify borrowing when the sentiment is negative and that 5% is wiped out with a 5% move downward in the context of a market moving down at way more than 5% per year.

This continued until when?

When people came out of the woodwork to buy with cash. Yes, the point at which they came out was effected by low yields, but once cash buyers emerged, prices stopped falling.

In 2010, approximately 30% of buyers paid cash. In 2011, it jumped to 50%, and by 2013 was almost 60%. It went down to about 40% by 2014.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-02-27 08:07:40

All housing transactions are “cash”. Do you really believe a seller is going to accept a credit card?

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-02-25 19:18:08

The Russian farm product sanctions just might elect Le Pen:


Comment by Ben Jones
2017-02-25 19:38:49

‘Every time French farmer Nicolas Menier looks at his black-and-white milk cows, he’s reminded that he loses money on each one. That’s why he sent 14 of his 60 Prim’Holsteins to the slaughterhouse in the past year.’

‘It didn’t net him much: Beef prices are falling too. So are grains. Menier’s small corner of Brittany is a microcosm of French farming’s deepest crisis since World War II, and that could have an impact on April’s presidential election.’

‘Farm income fell on average 15 percent in 2016, the agriculture ministry says, back to its levels of 2013. The total value of French agricultural production fell 7 percent to 69.2 billion euros ($74.3 billion) last year and the number of livestock-farm failures hit a record.’

“It’s the worst year since the end of the war,” said Claire Quiblier, head of economic studies at the Brittany branch of the FNSEA, France’s largest farmers’ union. “We’ve never seen so many sectors in crisis at once.”

Comment by palmetto
2017-02-25 20:46:19

“It’s the worst year since the end of the war,”

The war never ended.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-02-26 10:15:18

“We’ve never seen so many sectors in crisis at once.”

The is the unavoidable side-effect of distorting pricing of everything at once.

End central banking!!

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-02-26 10:16:18

This is…

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-02-26 11:15:25

I’ve heard stories that dairy farmers in the EU, especially in the higher cost nations like France and Germany, are losing money, big time, and there is no relief in sight.

Comment by Karen
2017-02-26 14:45:36

France, where even farmers have unions (and turn into violent thugs when they don’t get what they want).

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-02-25 20:18:40

Canaan, CT Housing Prices Plummet 24% YoY As National Housing Demand Craters To 20 Year Low


Comment by phony scandals
2017-02-25 21:37:09

Didn’t know there was a Canaan without a New in front of it.


Comment by aNYCdj
2017-02-26 07:29:18

I always thought carole kings song was about canaan ct…

Green fields and rolling hills
Room enough to do what we will
Sweet dreams of yestertime are running though my mind
Of a place I left behind, been so long, I can’t remember when
I’ve been to Canaan and I want to go back again

Been so long, I’m living till then
Cause I’ve been to Canaan and I won’t rest until
I go back again. Though I’m content with myself
Sometimes I long to be somewhere else
I try to do what I can, but with our day to day demands
We all need a promised land.

Been so long,I can’t remember when
I’ve been to Canaan and I want to go back again
Been so long, I’m living till then
‘Cause I’ve been to Canaan and I won’t rest until
I go back again. Oh I want to be there in the wintertime
With a fireplace burning to warm me
And you to hold me when it’s stormy

Been so long, I can’t remember when
I’ve been to Canaan and I want to go back again
Been so long,I’m living till then.

King, Carole

Comment by phony scandals
2017-02-25 21:59:55

On a clear day you can see five states from the top of The Empire State Building.

New York, New Jersey, Conn. & ?

Comment by rms
2017-02-26 00:54:44

I was thinking of Berkeley, but that’s a country. :)

Comment by Mot
2017-02-26 05:45:54

Rhode Island and Pennsylvania ?

Comment by phony scandals
2017-02-26 09:00:38

Pennsylvania and Massachusetts.

It was a Final Jeopardy question a few weeks ago and it was the only one that I can remember when I was correct and all 3 contestants were wrong.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-02-26 11:13:29

Answer: None. Only King Kong gets to go to the top of the Empire State Building.

Comment by phony scandals
2017-02-26 22:22:55

You are correct Blue.

I have been up there a few times and never saw anyone higher than the observation deck.

BY VJ · FEBRUARY 2, 2017

The Final Jeopardy question (2/2/2017) in the category “The U.S.A.” was:

The Empire State Building says that on a clear day you can see 5 states from the top: New York, New Jersey, Conn. & these 2.


Fun Facts | Empire State Building

On a clear day you can see five states from our Observatories: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Massachusetts.

Speedy Delivery

The Empire State Building was erected in a lightning fast 11 months.


Comment by Big Fat Ugly Bubble
2017-02-26 04:27:21

oxide, it’s hard to tell from the basic chart what will happen. It could go anywhere. My guess, eating my deep-fried crow, I actually agree with you, we go back up to $80 and then resume the downtrend after that.

It’s really hard to tell from a basic chart because you can’t see all the supply and demand characteristics.

Comment by Big Fat Ugly Bubble
2017-02-26 05:35:54

meaning, we could go sideways for another number of years….

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-02-26 05:39:12

Given record supply and collapsing demand, “sideways” isn’t on the radar.

Comment by Big Fat Ugly Bubble
2017-02-26 07:10:48

For oil? That’s what we’re talking about.

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-02-26 11:23:32

FWIW, WTIC Crude and Brent Crude have risen from $35 to $55 over the past 12 months.


Note: the charts default to 30 days history, click on “1y” to get 12 months of history.

Comment by Neuromance
2017-02-26 16:43:35

I think speculative demand amplifies moves upwards. There seems to be a lot more speculation in assets today than in decades past.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-02-26 06:34:27
Comment by In Colorado
2017-02-26 11:26:44

That South Africa is an illegal immigrant magnet just goes to show how messed up the rest of Africa is.

I guess those Black South Africans must be racist for not wanting non South Africans to move to their country.

Comment by Big Fat Ugly Bubble
2017-02-26 06:35:19

And you may find yourself
Living in a shotgun shack
And you may find yourself
In another part of the world
And you may find yourself
Behind the wheel of a large automobile
And you may find yourself in a beautiful house
With a beautiful wife
And you may ask yourself, well
How did I get here?


Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-02-26 06:47:44


Less “hot” money in the overseas housing markets?

Comment by azdude
2017-02-26 06:54:53

when you have equity it is kind of like having cash burning a hole in your pocket.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-02-26 07:21:42

Clarksville, MD Housing Prices Crater 19% YoY


Comment by aNYCdj
2017-02-26 07:35:21

housing newzzzz


The new HUD secretary bought the five-bedroom house for $1.22 million

Comment by Lurker
2017-02-26 11:37:34

“The house changed hands for $1.56 million more than a decade ago, in 2005, and again in 2012 for $1.3 million.”

Awesome, a HUD secretary with firsthand experience of the benefits of deflating bubbles. A very good sign!

Comment by taxpayer
2017-02-26 07:52:18

guess I’ll own TNH for a few more years
at %7+ that’s ok

human tornado flattens office building near DC
sells for $65 a foot

an office building built in 1984 vs today
how much depreciation is there?
I always figured 1/2 the rate of inflation for the structure

any thoughts?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-02-26 08:09:28

$3/sqt/yr depreciation losses.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-02-26 07:56:33


Comment by azdude
2017-02-26 08:18:54

as soon as these overpriced commodities come back to reality those farm prices will crater.

Seems like the farmers that have owned farm land for generations are the only ones making any money.

my uncle is in the cattle business. If you are laying out big dollars for land and feed u wont b in business long.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-02-26 08:31:14


Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-02-26 08:33:18

Another rear view mirror moment.

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Comment by Lurker
2017-02-26 11:53:10

What an excellent chart, well worth saving. A predictable, self-correcting market throughout the 90s. Then post-tech bubble crash, the attempt to smooth the business cycle and eliminate recessions, eventually leading to a massive unbalance. Then rinse, repeat.

It looks like the EKG of a healthy person given an unnecessary preventative drug that ends up causing a heart attack. And then being given the same medicine again.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-02-26 08:54:25

The farmland bust in the 20s was also all tangled up in too much easy credit. It’s the medicine that destroys the patient.

Comment by azdude
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-02-26 08:07:42

Living vicariously again Poet?

Comment by azdude
2017-02-26 08:20:56

how long can the chinese keep printing money like crazy so their stuff is cheap for americans but inflation runs amuck at home?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-02-26 08:29:14

Not willing to commit financial suicide? Sit back and relax while sellers slash prices until it’s affordable.

Comment by azdude
2017-02-26 08:49:38

when I buy my motorhome I will pick u up at the street corner u frequent. Beers on ice!

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-02-26 09:30:05

Data my good friend. Stick with the data.

Marin County, CA Rental Rates Crater 7% YoY


Comment by redmondjp
2017-02-26 12:38:43

No one here is your friend, much less your good friend.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-02-26 13:47:01

Cheer up my good friend…. cheer up.

Seattle, WA Housing Prices Plunge 6% YoY On Skyrocketing Inventory


Comment by Blue Skye
2017-02-26 16:01:36

What an ugly and conceited thing to say jp. Are you a Real Estate speculator?

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-02-26 08:53:13

‘The Fed reports, which contained concerning news for farmers, came on the heels of USDA’s forecast that U.S. farm incomes will drop 8.7% in 2017, and on the same day that The Wall Street Journal ran a front page story titled, ‘The Next Farm Bust is Coming.’

There’s a trend here too. Just in the last month or so the WSJ ran reports of a glut in luxury apartments, major credit contraction for commercial real estate and this farm bust article. Prior to that, everything was awesome.

Comment by azdude
2017-02-26 08:55:07

any of u culls gonna watch the daytona 500?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-02-26 09:10:37

Housing subsidy but I bet gender study students need not apply:


Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-02-26 09:26:41

Three times not the charm for Greece:


Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-02-26 10:36:00

Germany keeps saying no debt relief for Greece, when it is a mathematical impossibility for them to pay off their current debt levels.


Comment by In Colorado
2017-02-26 11:29:25

Funny, how the Germans have no problem giving free cheese to millions of rapefugees.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-02-26 16:09:09

In some dark historical ways, the Germans are natural allies of the Arabs. Of the Greeks, not so much.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-02-26 10:27:45

I was referring to the comment I made that Oxide commented on. I do not know whether Windows ten or my security software has a conflict with Ben’s site but I cannot post anymore, it is beyond slow to type and messages are being dropped. I am out of here.

Comment by aqius
2017-02-26 11:07:30

frugal ben swept his Trash-8O off his re-purposed door(desk) on Friday by mistake … it’s taking all weekend to reset.

everyone skip today’s Starbucks & donate so he can upgrade to a Commodore 64.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-02-26 11:46:55

“frugal ben swept his Trash-8O”

You’re giving away your age, grandpa! :-)

Comment by aqius
2017-02-26 12:45:32

yessir. but you still won’t get my D.O.R.!

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-02-26 11:27:34

Perhaps disable Adobe Shockwave Flash.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-02-26 11:42:06

- Try disabling all browser extensions temporarily
- Try using a different browser (you don’t say which one you are using)
- Try temporarily disabling your “security software”

One of those will probably help, and give you a better idea of where to focus.

Comment by azdude
2017-02-26 13:30:41

Man u whiners need to eat some crow today.

Dont be such babies because one of your posts disappears. It happens sometimes, get over it.

Comment by aqius
2017-02-26 11:10:23

just messin w/you ben.
don’t ban me.

i got now place else to go.


Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-02-26 11:40:11

Ugh, what is it with Las Vegas? People being laid off or cut all over. Went to the Green Valley Ranch buffet last night. Very short line, no bussers, so dishes on tables everywhere, unhappy waitress. I thought there were still plenty of people here living cost free, squatting for years. I wonder where they’re spending their money these days?

Yet…Southern Nevada sees increase in rental rates

Some renter disdain in the comments (poors). I get that from the nut case woman across the street. Ours is up June 30; she makes me want to move.

Also, apparently there was a “rare uptick” in housing prices here in January. I read it in the paper so it must be true.

Comment by new attitude
2017-02-26 12:29:51

Is GVR as good as Red Rock?

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-02-26 14:26:33

I think Red Rock. Haven’t been there in a while but it’s always been more impressive all around than GVR.

This was last night. I’ve never seen the servers bus their own tables there before. There were more dirty tables than occupied.

They’re killing the golden goose on the Strip - charging for parking? Horrors.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-02-26 14:28:15

RR is better than GVR, I meant.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by aqius
2017-02-26 12:42:36

maybe the day you ate out in Vegas was the nationwide ” Day Without Immigrant ” = no busboys!?

if i recall it was a thursday

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-02-26 12:11:05

Wheat Ridge, CO Housing Prices Crater 11% YoY On Diving Rental Rates


Comment by azdude
2017-02-26 13:12:13

why can chinese workers work for less?

Comment by butters
2017-02-26 16:13:57

They eat less.

Comment by Avg Joe
2017-02-26 16:58:56

But then they’re hungry again in 30 minutes.


Comment by Carl Morris
2017-02-26 19:52:03

why can chinese workers work for less?

My observations in Shanghai is that the rich and poor live closer to each other than in the USA. Almost anywhere you go is within walking distance of a place where you could live cheap if you were willing to accept the conditions. In the USA you gotta ante up just to service the rich.

Comment by @AltFacts
2017-02-26 13:45:07

Truth. It’s more important now than ever.

Comment by phony scandals
2017-02-26 14:17:48

Addicts For Sale

In the rehab capital of America, addicts are bought, sold, and stolen for their insurance policies, and many women are coerced into sex.

Cat Ferguson
BuzzFeed News Reporter
posted on Mar. 19, 2016, at 10:14 a.m.

“People come in, within six days, they’re counting how much money we’re making,” Jonas, the sober-home operator, told BuzzFeed News. “They get out six months later or less, and they’re opening their own [house] — they’re under 30 years old, they don’t have any real recovery time.”

And the cash rolls in. “You sit on Atlantic, you watch the Lamborghinis and the Bugattis go by,” Jonas said.

Some marketers will pay the first few Obamacare insurance premiums for addicts they pick up off the street.

Between 2012 and 2014, while Boyd was living in halfway houses himself, he said, he did take per-head fees from marketers to refer his friends. “They tell the kids, OK, I get X amount of dollars if you can find people who need to go to detox,” he said. “Through their commission, they would kick me back something like 50 or 100 bucks. The most I was getting paid was $250 for a 30-day treatment.”

Boyd opened the Ambitious Venture house in 2014. He told BuzzFeed News that clients who went to an affiliated outpatient program paid a lower weekly rent than those who didn’t. He is a certified medical assistant, and he said those outpatient programs paid him between $150 and $250 a week to conduct “aftercare” visits with their mutual clients.

Marketers pull addicts off the street, said Jessica Bostic, a 26-year-old from Ohio who came to Delray last year for rehab. “There’s a kickback if you’re the person who signs them into detox for referral. I was offered to go into a [rehab center] for two weeks for $1,000 — they would give you a portion of the referral fee.” But the marketers told her she would have to “do something” to qualify for detox — that is, use drugs.

With addicts in such a vulnerable state, being offered money, drugs, or both, these marketers sometimes use their power to make sexual demands as well.


Comment by butters
2017-02-26 15:14:54

Bill Pullman dead at 61.

That’s pretty young to die. Looks like doctors may have killed him. Sad.

Comment by azdude
2017-02-26 15:46:54

do u guys think a motor home or a truck and 5th wheel is a better way to travel and see the continental USA?

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-02-26 16:16:14

Be a real man. Get a Harley and tent camp in wooded areas on the interstate median.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-02-26 17:22:09

Sounds like a huge chore to me to drive and maintain one of those behemoths. Plus I’m not all that keen to “see the USA”, as one town is pretty much indistinguishable from the next one. Sure, there are some sights to see: Grand Canyon, etc. But overall, our fair country is kind of vanilla and dull.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-02-26 19:56:03

I grew up with campers pulled by trucks. Rented an RV for the first time over Christmas. Any time you’re rolling I’d rather be in the RV…it’s really cool to be able to really relax while rolling. Once you stop it’s a bit of a pain to not be able to drive anywhere without taking the house with you, but these days there’s Uber.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-02-26 15:50:52

Come on in…The water’s fine!

Large sewage spill in Tijuana, Mexico, flows north of border
Posted: Feb 25, 2017 2:45 PM PST
Updated: Feb 26, 2017 11:03 AM PST

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Officials in Southern California are crying foul after more than 140 million gallons of raw sewage spilled into the Tijuana River in Mexico and flowed north of the border for more than two weeks, according to a report.

The spill was caused Feb. 2 during rehabilitation of a sewage collector pipe and wasn’t contained until Thursday, the International Boundary and Water Commission said in its report released Friday. The river drains into the Pacific Ocean on the U.S. side.

Serge Dedina, the mayor of Imperial Beach, California, said residents of his city and other coastal communities just north of the border have complained about a growing stench.

Comment by taxpayer
2017-02-27 08:24:10

MD has a program where you bk your student loans and get cash for a mort
So get yo asz in school and make the honkey pay for your house.
We in VA will be sending you dreamers etc………

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-02-28 07:13:47

funny rarely did you ever hear anyone do a cash out refi and pay off their student loans, buying a his and hers SUV and Disneyland was the common theme.

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