HBB On The Road To Texas
I’m off to visit friends and relatives in Texas and scout some real estate. I’m not sure what kind of internet connections I’ll have or how much time to post, but please check back!
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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I am well along the way for this trip, and decided to use this post for an update. Of course for two days where I was staying the internet couldn’t be counted on (other than my phone, which is how I’ve been moderating). Then I come to downtown Dallas, and surprise! My room can’t get connected. So here I was Sunday morning waiting for the weather to break, and I got through to a third party servicer and after an hour on the phone, had this room connected through a work-around solution. The next person in this room will no doubt has to do the same.
Anyhoo, so check out this from Dallas:
https://dallas.craigslist.org/search/apa
Note the concentration of available apartments downtown.
https://dallas.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=free+rent&availabilityMode=0
displaying 23951 postings
And they are building 50,000 apartments in greater Dallas?
Do u see a lot of overpriced sh@y out there?
There was an article this morning about all the broke @ss folks from Cali ending up in texas.
I’m only looking at low rise apartments on this trip. Odessa I didn’t see much that was interesting. Midland is way overbuilt, especially in luxury. It’s too rainy to shoot video here in Dallas, but it’s got too much already and cranes everywhere. As soon as the rain clears, I’m headed to the big enchilada - Houston. I’ll let you guys know what I find and get some video if possible.
From last August:
‘Houston will build more new apartments this year than any other metro area in the United States, a real estate research firm projects — but will the new stock ease pressure on rents?’
‘Rent Cafe estimates about 26,000 new units from 95 projects will come online this year, outpacing larger metro areas like New York City and Los Angeles. Most of that growth will come from within city limits, with a staggering 16,000 new units, but outlying cities like Katy and Tomball are each expected to see more than 1,000 new units open this year.’
http://www.houstonpress.com/news/will-houstons-building-boom-ease-pressure-on-rents-8718261
Comment by azdude ??
Do you still have some questions regarding a Motor Home vs. a 5th wheel ??
well I was just trying to get some input from folks who have had to make that decision before. Seems with the 5th wheel you have to have a seperate vehicle to tow. I guess the advantage is you can just park the 5th wheel and then have a vehicle to run around in.
I see people with motorhomes towing small cars around all the time.
Price wise it seems the motorhomes can get pretty pricey.
I guess if you already have a truck the cheaper route is the 5th wheel.
What is your experience? thx
The truck can be worth more than the trailer. I have a bike aboard my Airstream for running around.
I have a Suzuki DR350 and a rack on my Chinook. Great set up, not too big, decent clearance for rough roads and getting to far away fishing holes.
“Then I come to downtown Dallas, and surprise! My room can’t get connected.”
That’s interesting. I travel a fair amount for work. A few years ago it was customary for hotels to charge for Internet service. Nowadays almost all of them provide it as part of the room fee. And it usually is pretty reliable.
Safe travels…
If they use Amazon Cloud, the service has been having problems recently. If you’re not one of the larger clients, like the CIA, you can get thrown under the bus. One of the small specialty sites I subscribe to had problems with Amazon and had to switch services after sending a letter of apology to their subscribers.
There is a concept known as “private cloud.” This typically means that your private cloud is physically separate from the public cloud, in fact, it might even be located on your own premises. What makes it “cloudy” is that it’s managed by your cloud provider, meaning you pay by use, as if it were a utility, as opposed to buying the HW yourself and then hiring some IT to run it for you.
In any case, I Imagine that Amazon’s employees who manage the private cloud for the CIA must have security clearances.
Seems like identity federation remains an Achilles heel. It doesn’t help either when over half of your workforce is living paycheck to paycheck. I talk to people being hired that have terrible credit backgrounds; the vetting process has become flaky, IMHO.
“In any case, I Imagine that Amazon’s employees who manage the private cloud for the CIA must have security clearances”
Heh, they’re probably the ones doing the leaking. And I’ll bet Jeffie gives them bonuses for it. Gives the Fedspooks some cover. “We didn’t do any such thing.”
Given Mr Snowden’s precarious situation I would think thrice before leaking any CIA information.
“Private cloud”
sounds like a fancy name for the old terminal/mainframe setup that existed before the internet. It’s just that the wires to the mainframe are miles long, right? So the wave of the future is really just old-school. At that point you may as well go back to smoke filled rooms.
So the wave of the future is really just old-school.
The IT world has improved dramatically. Here’s a residential bandwidth test, hardware vpn, tcp, not udp:
Download Speed: 88375 kbps (11046.9 KB/sec transfer rate)
Upload Speed: 87432 kbps (10929 KB/sec transfer rate)
Not really. There are no mainframes on the cloud, just a boatload of servers that are no bigger than your PC. The cables aren’t miles long because those servers on your premises, as opposed to one of Amazon’s massive server farms. The idea is that you don’t own the hardware, pay for software licenses or hire personnel and that the hardware and databases with your data are safely tucked away behind your firewall and not mingling with other servers.
Fiber optic to the cloud ( building with thousands of computers) is miles long.
New cloud centers can be many buildings all connected with fiber which move data so fast the buildings can be treated as one big building. 80KM apart is maximum I’ve heard.
Once in the building the computers can be connected with the low speed phone jack looking cables. CAT6 or whatever twisted pair.
“Private cloud” sounds like a fancy name for the old terminal/mainframe setup that existed before the internet.
“Cloud” is just somebody else’s computer.
Oops, I wasn’t clear. To me, private cloud just sounds like a self-contained internet with “air space” around it to stop the hackers. Similar to mainframe CPU with terminals feeding into it, a private cloud is a server data center with PCs feeding into it. Kinda like what the Hil had in her bathroom in Denver.
And yeah, I’ve been “cloud computing” since 1998, when I emailed documents to myself and stored them in my inbox.
Hey Donk.
I doubt there’s anything outside of govt/mil that is self contained with no outside network connection and still thought of as “cloud”. I think private cloud just means you don’t share the hardware with anybody else.
I’m with you on using the email server as your backup :-).
There’s a bunch of apartments being built off of Meadow Rd between 75 and Greenville Ave. (The original Chillis used to be at Maedow Rd. and Greenville Rd. until 7-8 years ago, they tore it down and put in a 7-11). Along with row homes starting in the $400ks! Funny cuz those developers are calling what they’re doing mid-town, but there is this other huge planned development at Preston and 635 (the old Valley View Mall) which is being called Midtown. Both of these areas are well north of both Uptown and Downtown. It is all very confusing.
Apparently some of the stuff off Meadow is assisted living:
http://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2016/02/03/construction-begins-on-midtown-park-senior-living.html
Funny cuz those developers are calling what they’re doing mid-town, but there is this other huge planned development at Preston and 635 (the old Valley View Mall)
“The Ghetto” would be a more accurate name
And they are building 50,000 apartments in greater Dallas?
They have somehow got the idea that the Metroplex is going to go from 6 million to 10 million residents quicker than these apartment towers will rot (or their owners go bankrupt.) They are seriously pushing the narrative that all of America is moving here.
I’m in Houston now. It’s pouring of course but looks as bad as we’ve been hearing. I’ve got some video when I get back home if the data cards don’t rust.
I can’t wait to see the videos of Houston. It’s funny - a few years ago Texas was in a deep drought like California and now we get tons of rain.
I could do some filming of the Dallas area. I have one of those dash cams, but I’ve never set it up. I also wouldn’t know exactly what to film. There is literally construction everywhere.
Within a mile of me they are going to build a thousand-unit apartment complex and a new hospital over the next year. They are at work right now on a new high school just down the road. Those are just the major projects.
‘I also wouldn’t know exactly what to film’
Anything you think interesting at any time. I find a lot of parallels between making a video and blogging. Search for snippets and the eye catching. It all comes together in the editing and you never know what the impact will be until it’s reviewed for release, refined and how people react to it. But visual is especially singular. You captured it. It isn’t something someone else reported on and is re-released. It’s more creative. Obviously amateur video is popular these days because of that. Add comentary if possible. Should you get something you like I’d be happy to put it on my channel.
FWIW, I would love to see video of truly bad housing. Luxury-lolz apartments where it’s clear the units have very few windows. Zero-lot line cookie-cutter construction. Particle board housing. Signage with realtor speak like “you could be home by now” or “new luxury in vibrant community, from the low $400s.” Giant McMansion estates… packed together on a cul-de-sac.
Oh, and Ben posted some footage of AZ houses where the garages were so tiny that people had to park their trucks on the short driveway. I wonder how such tiny garages would be received in Texas, where “everything is big.” I would love video of giant McMansion estates… packed together on a cul-de-sac. That’s not what I would call an “estate,” especially in a state with no shortage of land.
(FYI, when I think of estates and big houses in Texas, I usually picture that iconic 1970’s helicopter shot of the Ewing’s Southfork ranch. — you know, the one at the 1:00 minute mark here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sKX3tWaOew )
They are seriously pushing the narrative that all of America is moving here.
While it might very well be true that Texas is not the top destination for US citizens, it is the top destination for US residents and immigrants arriving directly, by far.
Even with zero migration growth, Texas’ population will grow about 5 million in the next 30 years, the equivalent of the current population of Colorado. With Mid-range growth it will add about 15 million. Top rate growth projects adding about 30 million, making Texas possibly the most populated state. Also, by 2020 it is projected that there will be more Hispanics than “Anglos” (as if all white people were Anglo-Saxon). I have heard Mexican Americans refer to whites as “bolillos” (boh-LEE-yohs), which is a Mexican bread roll, it’s basically their equivalent of referring to “Anglos” as “white bread”. Hispanics will be the majority of Texans by around 2040, more than whites, blacks and Asians combined.
And some here on this blog say that Colorado is the next California. That honor belongs to Texas, cowboy … or should I say “vaquero”?
Forgot to include this link:
http://demographics.texas.gov/Resources/Publications/2014/2014-11_ProjectionBrief.pdf
Yeah, about that link … the state government of TX is one of the major forces behind this narrative. They can “project” (= make up) anything they like. They really want to justify all the building. Real estate development and real estate taxes pay the bills here.
They’d better hope our new president doesn’t continue pushing against both legal and illegal immigration
There was an article that passed through my newsfeed the other day predicting we’d go from 6.6 million to 10 million within the next 10 years!
It might be this one, but the site is blocking me: http://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2017/02/23/dfw-embrace-trinity-river-sustainable-living-uniquely-texan
Yeah, about that link … the state government of TX is one of the major forces behind this narrative. They can “project” (= make up) anything they like.
They certainly can, but you have to admit, it has grown, at a clip of 5 million per decade since 1990. I certainly do doubt that the DFW metro area will grow by 3.4 million in the next ten years. That would be 70% of the state’s growth. If DFW was the only major metro area in Texas, then maybe, but that 5 million will be shared with Houston, San Antonio, Austin and El Paso.
Trump’s moves against legal and especially illegal immigration remain to be seen, though the initial moves are encouraging.
And keep in mind over half of what is at best a guesstimate were for temporary work assignments in the 18-48 month range. Then they pick up their things and move on to a new assignment in another state.
Never put too much faith in government getting out in the weeds on statistics they have an inherent interest in skewing in their favor.
+1 HA. Everyone praises a growing number of “workers” because they will supposedly support the poor and elderly. But it doesn’t do much good to have workers if there are no paychecks for those workers. I still find it depressing that the only thing that really seems to improve a worker’s lot is large-scale death to reduce the labor force. The lives of workers improved dramatically after the Black Plague in 1345. I guess a modern version would be the post-war prosperity of the 1950s.
You might want to preface that with the fact that population growth is at all time record lows and falling.
Keller, TX Housing Prices Crater 10% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/keller-tx/home-values/
Are 100-year-mortgages next?
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/04/negative-real-interest-rates-on-nordic-house-price-bubble-100-year-mortgages/
How can they have “inter-generational mortgages” when Scandinavians aren’t having kids? Who will assume the mortgage? What if the kids don’t want or can’t afford the mortgage? Who does the bank come after if there is a loss after the foreclosure?
Have the Fed’s Ponzi markets and asset bubbles entered their terminal phase?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-a-selloff-as-fear-stalks-this-stock-market-rally-2017-03-03
Dogs climbing mountains:
http://www.picpaste.com/20170305_093527_1.jpg
There’s alot less snow than I expected up here, so we may be breaking treeline within the next hour. Only renters get to live like this…
Just got back from Tahoe, geez they had a lot of snow, the good kind too. I left last night, good thing too since I-80 is shut down this morning due to no visibility. I got 3 days in on the snow. Those new ski/boarding apps are pretty trick, track speed, vertical feet, etc. My top speed for the trip was 47 mph. I wasn’t really pushing it though, rental board, back surgery, etc.
Only renters can ski or ride that fast.
People with mortgages who try that will end up like Sonny Bono.
Fortunately no big accidents for me. My brother wrecked once hard enough for all of us, caught an edge and sling shot onto the slope…owee, seems like that stuff always happens when you’re going slow. No permanent damage for him hopefully.
I use the free version of ski app lite which only keeps the details on the last few runs, maybe 10 or so. My 47 mph run was early on day 2 and got bumped, here’s a 43 mph run from yesterday. My mortgage didn’t slow me down too much!
http://picpaste.com/Screenshot_2017-03-05-11-32-20-hSAkgbWB.png
I know plenty of people with mortgages who hit the slopes.
And my friend who owns her house with no mortgage skied 100+ days last year.
She owns 13 pairs of skis BTW.
“She owns 13 pairs of skis BTW.”
Imelda of the Slopes?
“People with mortgages who try that will end up like Sonny Bono.”
There is no greater prison sentence than a mortgage.
“There is no greater prison sentence than a mortgage.”
I dunno… living with a dead bedroom sounds miserable too.
I dunno… living with a dead bedroom sounds miserable too.
If you think about it, it’s worse. With a mortgage you have the option to stop paying and give up the house, usually with no consequences beyond a heavily dented credit score. Plus if you live in the right state, you might get to live in it for years, rent free.
Getting rid of a dead bedroom isn’t that simple. It involves expensive lawyers and when the judge bangs the gavel you can find yourself having to part with half your wealth plus years if not decades of payments, which you can be jailed for if you don’t pay them.
“I dunno… living with a dead bedroom sounds miserable too.”
Millions get creative with that and live a satisfying life. However, there is no happy ending once the decision is made to finance a rapidly depreciating asset at a grossly inflated price.
Millions get creative with that and live a satisfying life.
I presume you speak from experience.
One might just go live on a boat.
“It involves expensive lawyers and when the judge bangs the gavel you can find yourself having to part with half your wealth plus years if not decades of payments, which you can be jailed for if you don’t pay them.”
Lil Sis worked out a brilliant settlement with my cheap ass ex-BIL last fall. She worked with her attorneys on an agreement, then convinced ex-BIL to accept or else lose $$$ fighting it in court.
It went through without delay
That is one happy looking dog.
He got about 15 miles of off-leash time today. Born and raised in Pinehurst, North Carolina, where a local philanthropist donated 60 acres of fields and woods and streams to become the municipal dog park, with a chain link fence around it. No fences here, and we did turn around at about elevation 11,500 feet because of the wind…
Be careful with your pooch off-leash while mountain-climbing (or hiking). A number of them end up going off cliffs around here requiring response from mountain rescue, SAR, and special SAR-for-animals teams.
There was also one that spooked when it slid on ice, ran back up to the peak of the mountain, and due to conditions the rescue folks couldn’t get to it until the next day (when mountain rescue had to come and set up anchors to be able to belay to it safely). Luckily it was a heavy-coated mountain dog so it survived the sub-freezing temps, but still was in rough shape.
at that height you need to be in good shape to do this, I know when we traveled on I80 Little america cheyenne and some of the mt passes were over 10k feet the car was gasping for air, and i noticed the difference.
Cheyenne is only 6000 ft above sea level. If your car was “gasping for air” in Cheyenne, then something was wrong with it. If you merely meant that you lost some horsepower, then that is to be expected. The rule of thumb is that your engine will lose about 3% of power for every 1000 ft of elevation gained, so in Cheyenne you would have been down about 18% of HP (probably more like 15%). Noticeable, but your car should have done fine.
Now if you really want elevation, take I-70 over the Vail pass. That is 10,600 ft. I-80’s highest elevation is 8600 ft.
Trail Ridge Rd (US 34) is the highest federal highway in the US, maxing out at 12,183 feet inside of Rocky Mountain National Park. I have driven over Trail Ridge with no problems. Cars with carburetors sometimes have vapor lock issues at high altitude, but I have never experienced that with a fuel injected car.
Once rode a Harley-Davidson over the pass in Yosemite from the Nevada to California, and that engine was barely running… the fuel-air mixture rich. Groups of people were up there on road bicycles too.
I do wheelies with my Harley.
and that engine was barely running… the fuel-air mixture rich.
Which is one reason why we stopped making cars with carburetors 30+ years ago.
(Comments wont nest below this level)
And yet, they’ve nested below it. Huh…
I always interpreted that as there is only one layer below this…no more nesting will occur.
Sherman Oaks, CA Housing Prices Plunge 10% YoY As Housing Demand Craters Statewide
https://www.zillow.com/sherman-oaks-los-angeles-ca/home-values/
Land prices ahoy!!!
Riverbanks collapse after Oroville Dam spillway shut off
But they apparently did not anticipate a side effect of their decision to stop feeding the gushing Feather River — a rapid drop in river level that, according to downstream landowners, caused miles of embankment to come crashing down.
http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Riverbanks-collapse-after-Oroville-Dam-spillway-10976144.php
That is one screwy story. With that level of incompetence, CA is so fooked, I can’t imagine what would happen if the big one hits, the workers would probably just go out and start dynamiting everything in sight. On top of that, the fish and wildlife idiots scrambling to save some spawn adds an extra layer of insanity. Jeebus.
One wonders about the number of man hours needed to correct the mess ….
VERSUS
… the number of man hours spent during the past ten years screwing off on cell phones, computers and apps ….
… man hours that should have been spent doing their jobs instead, to prevent problems such as Oroville.
There were several years of drought in a row that such scenarios could have been tested and addressed, but no.
Just what did all these engineers actually DO during the past several years?
I seem to recall reading that the Oroville problems had been predicted but that there was no political will to allocate funds to address it.
Has less to do with political will and everything to do with the fact that California is dead-broke.
They could have used money they spend on coddling illegals to fix the dam, but chose not to do so for political reasons.
Dead broke and in debt either way.
Exactly. Only the employers of illegals benefit from their cheap labor, the rest of society picks up the bill.
Bloomibergi radio was hosting yet another globalist wag this morning. His schtick was that “we need to update our policies to draw working-class Americans into the global economy so that they can feel the benefits of the global economy too.” (and then of course went to drop the usual subtle language of tax cuts.)
They will never admit that the American middle-class is nearly incompatible with globalism.
They will never admit that the American middle-class is nearly incompatible with globalism.
Exactly that, I knew that the middle class was history when we subjected them to trying to compete with Chinese factory workers making ten cents an hour.
Chinas unemployed class is expanding faster than the US.
How did that happen?
Because all those jobs improved China’s standard of living, which means they wanted real housing not mud huts, real food not small bowls of rice, and actual other stuff too. Which means the workers have become too expensive, just as the Americans did.
And so it’s time for those multinationals to find the next mud-hut country, hollowing out China’s middle class just as the Americans were. And so race to the bottom they will, until the only viable countries left will be North Korea buying goods from South Sudan, while everyone else wrests a meager existence with mud huts and small bowls of rice.
Donk,
Are you suggesting becoming a DebtDonkey isn’t such a good idea?
Angelcake,
The unemployed can’t pay rent any more than they can pay a mortgage.
Imagine the run-off events if the Sierra reservoirs didn’t exist?
In the 1840’s they sailed a clipper ship to Tulare.
That’s what would happen.
“In the 1840’s they sailed a clipper ship to Tulare.”
Wow… that’s incredible. Most of the Sacramento area would have to be deep underwater. Gotta search on that tonight. Thanks!
Yes, let’s kill all the animals on the Earth besides man. That will solve everything.
I flew directly over the Lake Oroville dam this morning. Awesome view especially including the very green surroundings, but we were way too high for a good visual on flood damage or repairs underway.
Did you also flyover Shasta, which is near full too?
I still find it amazing to look at the Googlemaps of these dammed lakes. The satellite and ground images at Shasta were taken in 2011-2012 when low lake levels exposed the rocky shoreline, indicating 15-20 (?) feet of vertical drop in the lake level.
Houston, TX Housing Prices Crater 10% YoY As Lenders Pump Out Subprime Mortgages
https://www.zillow.com/houston-tx/home-values/
who’s turn is it to goose the stock market and flush some more shorts? There are a lot of weak hands in the market now.
Ride the donkey, yellon as long as you can.
News out of China, the entire numbers have not come out but this out of GM shows that at least for February China’s vehicle sales are shooting to the moon, funny how such a poor people managed to buy around 25 million vehicle per year, maybe the CIA is right after all:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/03/20170306-gmchina.html
PS looking good for Australia and Brazil’s iron ore miners.
Actually sales are now running about 28 million a year which is about 10.5 to 11 million more than the US:
http://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/jac-motor-sees-slower-china-auto-market-sales-growth-in-2017/57494383
Get your story straight my good friend. Get your story straight.
“China witnesses lowest vehicle sales since February 2016″
http://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/251694413/china-witnesses-lowest-vehicle-sales-since-february-2016
You do realize that was last month after a tax credit was reduced in December. During that month record sales were recorded because sales were stolen from January. Now it looks like sales are back on track despite the reduction in the tax credit.
In case you missed in Daniel A. Crowman.
lowest vehicle sales since February 2016
I will say it again those are not the February numbers, btw China’s reserves are back above $3 trillion, mainly based on an even higher trade surplus with the US and the fact that by keeping Chinese from investing in real estate all over the world, the trade surplus would naturally translate into higher reserves:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/finance/Forex-reserves-rise-to-pass-US3t/shdaily.shtml
““China witnesses lowest vehicle sales since February 2016″
Impressive sales though only a fraction of “vehicles” are personal autos. There is tremendous wealth inequity and only the top 10% percent can afford such luxury. Ain’t buying any Toyota Corolla for $20,000 if you’re in the $100 a month club.
A large fraction.
The captured media is naturally saying that now (or ever) is not a good time to raise interest rates.
http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-moving-toward-march-rate-hike-considers-stocks-2017-3
Retail still looking grim.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/05/brick-mortar-retailers-bankruptcies-restructuring-neiman-marcus-bcbg-hhgregg/
Debt is slavery.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/05/mexico-debt-liquidity-problems-swap-line-fed/
“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks…will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered…. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.” – Thomas Jefferson in the debate over the Re-charter of the Bank Bill (1809)
“Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves.”
Andrew Jackson
Saved.
Good sign.
President Trump Adds Portrait of President Andrew Jackson to Oval Office Decor
6 former GS vampires vs portrait of a dead president.
I wonder who’s gonna win that battle.
T is a fraud…it only took me 2 weeks to figure out.
You’re thinking they are not tamed vampires…
We shall see.
Privatize the profits, socialize the losses - good business model if you can get it. Not so good for society though - you don’t get Trump, Brexit and maybe Le Pen if the economic theories are working as well the looters in suits tell you they are.
A ‘Bad Bank’ Could Be Good for Europe
MARCH 6, 2017 2:00 AM EST
Bloomberg
The European Union’s leaders have spent much of the past decade debating — but never fully resolving — what to do about the huge pile of bad loans that EU banks are sitting on, most recently estimated at more than 1 trillion euros. Nobody knows how large the losses will ultimately be, and this uncertainty spooks investors, inhibits new lending and undermines the European Central Bank’s efforts to support economic growth.
Now, a group of officials at the European Banking Authority — with the support of colleagues at the ECB and the euro area’s bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism — has put forth a proposal that could help: Create a publicly funded, pan-European “bad bank.” Its aim would be to dispel uncertainty by determining the fair value of the soured assets and, with the help of private investors, purchasing a large portion of them.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-06/a-bad-bank-could-be-good-for-europe
Hahah. And who benefits from this? The people who would have taken the loss otherwise. Who suffers? Those who were not on the hook before but now will have to eat it. But hopefully they aren’t paying close attention. Or have been sufficiently scared by tales of the alternative.
I wonder what Jackson meant by the phrase “breadstuffs of the country.”
The modern-day equivalent would be speculation in industries that are really needed by the common folks: healthcare, affordable housing, nutritious food, good transport. Letting the vipers and thieves loose is how we get toll lanes on what used to be public roads, pre-existing condition death panels at health insurance companies, crappy processed food based on corn/wheat/soy subsidies, parking meters sold to foreign countries, and value-added conversion of thousands of badly-needed Grade B apts to luxury-lolz vibrant apts.
Chao says U.S. drivers may face more tolls to raise infrastructure funds
By Ashley Halsey III March 4
Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao this past week raised the prospect that needed infrastructure improvements may be funded to some extent by imposing tolls on more of the nation’s roads and bridges.
It was unclear whether she intends to expand tolling on the U.S. interstate system.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/chao-says-us-drivers-may-face-more-tolls-to-raise-infrastructure-funds/2017/03/04/85cad5ec-005e-11e7-99b4-9e613afeb09f_story.html?utm_term=.aae58056ad49
Ben-others
A decent office building 1985 sold for $65 a foot and all around peeps are trying to get $200+. Is this a seismic event?
15 miles w of DC
crater
$100 in 1985 has the same buying power as $225 today…so, assuming rents moved at the same pace as prices nationally, $147 of the $200+ is simply due to the property generating more income.
Since interest rates and cap rate are meaningfully lower, the rest I’m assuming is easily explained by such lower yields (like bonds, lower yields = higher prices per square foot).
Science lovers……
A new form of matter: scientists create the first supersolid
Enter the supersolid: a paradoxical material that flows easily like a superfluid, but is crystalline like a solid. Cathal O’Connell reports.
https://cosmosmagazine.com/physics/a-new-form-of-matter-scientists-create-the-first-supersolid
First world problems:
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/shop-owners-construction-crews-take-up-prime-parking-spots-hurt-business-in-cherry-creek-north
Oh the injustice of having to walk three blocks to the botox clinic, somebody should organize a march on City Hall…
I stayed in the area awhile back and was stunned by the number of gold diggers trolling for the sugar daddies.
Why are you stunned, a-dan? The oldest profession is the only one still hiring.
San Rafael, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% YoY On Ballooning Bay Area Inventory
https://www.zillow.com/san-rafael-ca/home-values/
While you are in Texas Ben, I’m meandering through Florida.
There are 17 tower cranes in the Miami skyline. I have not done any analysis yet, but will soon.
I was on the west coast of Florida earlier around Naples. New construction everywhere. It appears the market is in equalibrium, with prices holding and listings increasing slightly. It seems like a great area to live.
“It seems like a great area to live.”
It’s OK. You just happen to be here for the good weather. May through October is miserable.
Good point. Six months seems like eternity in heat and humidity!
“Six months seems like eternity in heat and humidity!” Actually, that depends where you’re from. I’m from New Orleans, so I’m used to it. I do not like cold weather - thin blood I guess.
Regards,
Roidy
What I could never get used to are the bugs, followed by the humidity. I could never live in a place like Hotlanta.
The thing about the Rocky Mountain West is that is isn’t frigid most of the time during the winter. There’s only snow on the ground about 10-20% of the time. The rest of the time we have highs in the 50’s to sixties. We even had a few days in February that hit the low 70’s. Summers can be hot, with highs in the 80’s and 90’s; but the humidity is low and it cools off at night.
Yes, that’s what my brother Chris says about Colorado. Still too cold for me. Wonderful state, though.
Regards,
Roidy
“The thing about the Rocky Mountain West is that is isn’t frigid most of the time during the winter. There’s only snow on the ground about 10-20% of the time. The rest of the time we have highs in the 50’s to sixties.”
Just went to Walmart this evening… first, had to scrape ice off the windshield. Blustery rain and snow all week and weekend in the forecast. I wish I could hibernate ’till Spring.
Downtown Miami, FL Housing Prices Crater 10% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/downtown-miami-fl/home-values/
Yes, that is what I am seeing in Miami. The bartender last night said 2020 is going to be a bloodbath for sellers, especially for condos.
It’s already a bloodbath for anyone hanging onto a depreciating asset like a house but remember…..
Nothing accelerates the economy and creates jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.
Boulder, CO Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/boulder-co/home-values/
Is that a reverse shoeshine boy moment? Bartenders calling a crash?
“Vancouver Home Sales Plunge More than 40%”
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/vancouver-home-sales-plunge-more-than-40-as-new-listings-drop-to-14-year-low
A nation of broke @ss loosers:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-06/half-americans-cant-write-500-check
Who writes checks these days?
c’mon suckers, take the bait and buy some stocks.
I’m staying in Fort Stockton, TX on my way back to Arizona. I’ve spent a good amount of time in 3 small oil towns. I have to say, it’s more boom than bust: lots of activity from the working people. There are signs of distress: closed gas stations, new fast food places, etc. But the fracking biz appears alive and well. I did notice the non-fracking pump jacks around Midland and Odessa were 90% inactive.
Houston is busy, but much of that seems to be construction. Jeebus they are overbuilt in Houston. In Katy, there are canyons of luxury apartments. I couldn’t record any video there because it was raining cats and dogs, but these projects are colossal. Hundreds of units (mostly 3 stories) next to more and more of the same size.
Does it smell like oil in Houston? Maybe only in the humid summer months?
No. There’s no oil in Houston. The wells themselves are stinky.
“canyons of luxury”
Katy must be a very rich place.
It’s on the western edge of the city. Past that there is open grass land. I’m guessing they went there for the easy expansion.
well good luck on the drive back.Seems like debt and leverage are back in a big way.
Hearing stories of folks pulling equity to go on vacation.
As long as prices keep going up the scheme works.
my best friend a dj partner just moved from yonkers to Tomball tx sold their mc mansion for i think 635 bought there for $245 or so….. not ready to retire he worked at cnn all during 9/11 and she worked for Walter Cronkite for over 3 years as his office manager and even had hand delivered engraved invitations to his funeral.
helps to have her sister work for horton and is in the video….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPv6BJzgsWk
‘More boom than bust’
That’s what I have been hearing since Nov. Some transactional attnys I know got slammed right after the election, lots of oil and gas stuff. I spoke to someone in midland who said it was like someone turned on a spicket, he conveyed mostly anecdotal stuff like anadarko moving in 500 workers, etc.
I had a client who was in the ahem, adult entertainment business, who used to go to midland for weeks at a time. She got a corporate job though.
She got a corporate job though.
Same business model, lower pay?
They’re doing great! Everyone is just being a Chicken Little Nay-sayer. What could go wrong?
Regards,
Roidy
Oh dear….never saw THIS coming….
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/06/snap-plunges-12-as-investor-group-revolts-against-its-no-vote-shares/
Dont fight rising prices! Asset inflation is wealth!
“Now I know what you can do
Let us lay some funk on you”
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DGsb5DADbKU
The Dog - Rufus Thomas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6SGQHZZxqg
“The Reality Is, Half Of Americans Can’t Afford To Write A $500 Check”
by Tyler Durden
Mar 6, 2017 9:17 PM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-06/half-americans-cant-write-500-check
Daze On The Market: Telltale Indicator?
My wife and I are looking to retire within the next 5 years. We like plan ahead in our lives, and we have retirement goals we will need to meet - livability, walkability, ease of maintenance.
Anyway, I’m looking around for neighborhoods in the S. East US that have houses built in the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s. We want to downsize with a smaller house, we like the mid-century style of the brick-veneer ranch houses. Also, these houses have a layout that is easy to deal with.
I’ve lived in the modern “Florida-style” houses with the weird room layouts and stucco exteriors. I can go on and on about these.
So, I should get to my point: these mid-century houses are sure easy to renovate and a reasonable cost. What is worrying me is the initial cost of these and the time on the market. The real estate for sale on the websites lists these 2 bdrm 2 bath 1200 sqft houses for prices that are unreasonably high and they are on the market for more than a year in many cases. What should list for $35k to $90k in small S. East cities in the US are listing for $120k to $200k, unrenovated, and time on market in excess of 6 months to well over a year. What part of “Not Going To Sell” are these owners not getting?
We are well into a bubble in parts of the S. East and Gulf Coast. A real estate agent admitted this to me on Saturday. Bubble. Cities I’ve looked at: Savannah, Charleston, Tallahassee, Pensacola, Jacksonville, east into lower Alabama around Mobile, and New Orleans. Condos are getting higher, also. Condos. It all started in the condo market in Tampa.
Oh well. Why learn a lesson the first time when we can have fun screwing it all up again? I’ll take a double portion of bailout with that real estate bubble, please.
Peace out,
Roidy
Will Nevada ever recover from the housing bust?
At this rate, probably not.
Start with the state-level GDP figures, which show the real output of Nevada’s private sector is still more than 8 per cent below its previous peak:
As hard as it is to believe, this understates the scale of the damage.
Despite an undiversified economy stuck in the middle of the desert, Nevada continues to be one of the most popular places for Americans to move. It also has a relatively high birth rate.
Adjusting for changes in population, Nevada’s real output is a staggering 21 per cent below its 2006 peak, and more than 10 per cent below its level from two decades ago — a performance only comparable to Greece:
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/03/06/2185515/will-nevada-ever-recover-from-the-housing-bust/
Good article, Mike.
If you don’t want to register, search
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/03/06/2185515/will-nevada-ever-recover-from-the-housing-bust/
in Google, click link in box under Top Stories and it comes up.
It’s recovered too much for my liking. We didn’t buy our rental because the owner wanted a price $40K over estimates, so I refused; now it’s around $120K over what he wanted. Woulda, coulda, shoulda, hindsight 20/20 and all that.
Raiders line up Bank of America financing for Las Vegas stadium
By Vincent Bonsignore, Los Angeles Daily News
POSTED: 03/06/17, 4:21 PM PST | UPDATED: 2 HRS AGO
The Oakland Raiders added a significant piece to their Las Vegas relocation puzzle Monday. According to National Football League sources, the Raiders informed an NFL owners subcommittee that Bank of America has been secured to complete the financing on the $1.9 billion stadium they hope to build off the Las Vegas Strip.
Bank of America’s involvement is a critical development, as it makes up for the $650 million that Las Vegas Sands Corp. head Sheldon Adelson pulled off the table after Adelson and the Raiders could not come to terms on a suitable partnership agreement.
Adelson’s departure also prompted Goldman Sachs to walk away from the deal, leaving a huge funding gap that, outwardly, left the Raiders Los Angeles plan teetering.
http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20170306/raiders-line-up-bank-of-america-financing-for-las-vegas-stadium
The next domino to fall: commercial real estate.
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2017/03/the-next-domino-to-fall-commercial-real.html
A bit of detail on what his chart measures. From the Green Street website:
“The index is based on Green Street’s frequently updated estimates of private-market value for REIT portfolios across the five major property sectors (apartment, industrial, mall, office and strip retail – aggregate asset-value of $600 BN). Since REITs own high-quality properties, the index measures the value of institutional-quality commercial real estate.”
AND
“We place more weight on high-quality properties, e.g. a New York skyscraper has a much greater impact than a suburban strip mall. Because our CPPI is value-weighted, it measures what’s happening to real estate prices in aggregate, similar to the Wilshire 5000 that measures what’s happening to the stock market in aggregate. Most property indices are equally-weighted.”
So, this index is weighted toward large buildings in “gateway cities”.
This is where many “core” assets are located, and where most foreign capital has flowed.
While cap rate compression has occurred everywhere to some extent, these kinds of assets (large), in these kinds of markets (”gateway” cities), it has by far, occurred the most.
Said yet another way, the graph is not a good representation of the whole of the commercial real estate market in the US, but IS a good representation of institutional assets in large markets.
Thanks for all of your comments - especially your exhaustive explanations from a few days ago. You frequently seem to identify things that others do not see in the endless articles and reports. I appreciate your work.
Thank you.
“Thank you.”
Somebody better thank the little people who fetched the Cheetos that made finding all the endless articles and reports possible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UntdGA7gH3Q
More extend and pretend by the insolvent PIIGS financial sector.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/06/spain-needs-bigger-banks-apparently/
They will kick the can until it is no longer possible to do so.
Whistling past the graveyard in Vancouver.
http://www.scmp.com/business/article/2076761/demand-luxury-vancouver-condos-outstrips-available-supply-says-canadian
Arizona is moving to protect its citizens from the Fed’s debasement of the currency,
http://www.safehaven.com/article/43838/arizona-challenges-the-feds-money-monopoly
Millennial “investors” are poorer but possibly less stupid this morning.
http://www.businessinsider.com/snapchat-stock-price-march-7-2017-2017-3
Check your portfolio. More likely your pension/401k plans are heavily invested in Snotchat.
Old Yellen is going to have a tough time punting on yet another interest rate hike if bond yields keep rising.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/Bond/TMUBMUSD10Y?countrycode=BX
Oh, SNAP!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-07/snap-plunges-shorting-begins
Pity the Millennial bagholders….
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/snap
Paris sticks it to owners of vacant homes with a 60% tax. Look for more cash-strapped municipalities to follow suit as absentee owners are low-hanging fruit for the tax man.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-07/vacant-homes-are-global-epidemic-and-paris-fighting-it-60-tax
Generation X: housing bagholders. Meanwhile, student debt is causing boomers to hold back on house purchases - a fitting plight for the most worthless generation in human history.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/even-for-70-year-olds-student-debt-is-holding-back-house-purchases-2017-03-07
Coral Gables, FL Housing Prices Crater 11% YoY As Housing Bubble Deflation Accelerates
https://www.zillow.com/coral-gables-fl/home-values/
“Vacant Homes Are A Global Epidemic”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-07/vacant-homes-are-global-epidemic-and-paris-fighting-it-60-tax
Noooooooooo!
It’s 99.9% occupied.
Chinese embezzlers and Russian oligarchs and mafia money-launderers are going to have to swallow a bitter pill and look for renters to live in their “investment.”
Not in USSA. Every other country either has done something or thinking about doing something. Good Ol’ usa where fraud is a norm hasn’t even peeped a word on this matter.
That chart is stunning. NYC, LA and SF lead the globe in massive, excess, empty housing inventory.
Noooooo! It can’t be SF cuz everyone wants to live here.
China’s land and housing bubbles, fueled by trillions in printing-press “stimulus,” show no signs of abating despite feeble measures by the corrupt and venal comrades of the CCP.
http://www.scmp.com/business/article/2076753/chinas-city-land-sales-surge-73-cent-despite-cooling-measures
It is going to be interesting to watch how they can hold down a real estate bubble and also buy economic growth with credit expansion. Seems contradictory to me.
This is the most depressing article I’ve read in a while:
http://www.webmd.com/diet/obesity/news/20170307/have-americans-given-up-on-losing-weight
TAX fat people
and hook them to carts
Wow, nice article. Thanks! I myself have about 15 to lose, from processed food. Looking around at friends and acquaintances, it appears that they’ve ALL gained 10-15, and this only in the 3-5 years I’ve known them. I don’t think it’s a drop off in exercise. It makes me think something changed in the food supply again. Or maybe we’re all just getting older. I wonder if ♥PJW♥ will have something to say about this.
I lost about 30lbs in China over a couple of years without really trying. I was a little more active and didn’t eat western food as often but the Chinese food wasn’t necessarily that healthy.
As soon as I came back to the USA it is slowly trying to come back even though I’m working harder to fight it. My conclusions is that it’s one or more of:
Stress
Sugar
American wheat
American meat (hormones)
???
Enragement?
Delaware Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY Statewide
https://www.zillow.com/de/home-values/
http://www.conejovalleyguy.com/marketupdate/
unbelievable prices keep cratering up
Agoura Hills -13.8%
Westlake Village (L.A. County) -45.7%
Woodland Hills -7.0%
I wonder why this UHS didn’t mention these markets? Could he have an interest in only mentioning the up stuff? And if you did ask him, he’d probably say something about market mix. But, are you saying the median is a flawed, even lagging statistic? So why do you talk about it all the time? And sales, why only look at days on market and not do a year over year of sales? And isn’t there the same shortage in Agora Hills, etc? How could prices possibly go down?
The fewer the number of sales, the more flawed median is…candidly, all “median” numbers on that particular page should be ignored except those for Ventura County, and San Fernando Valley…those are big enough sample sizes to have meaningful readings—especially if you look at multiple year-on-year measurements throwing out highs and lows.
So the only valid data presents itself when fraud driven demand is rising but not when demand is collapsing and prices falling….
Twisty pretzels are you specialty.
Alameda, CA Housing Prices Crater 11% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/alameda-ca/home-values/
It’s OK. We already learned what happens after sales fall off.
Bellevue, WA Housing Demand Craters 20% YoY
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/City/City_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
Completely false as usual, HA.
Bellevue is one of the hottest places on the west coast for Chinese investment right now, especially since Vancouver, BC implemented their foreign-buyer tax. No sign of anything slowing down here.
Analyze the data my good friend….. analyze the data.
Kenmore, WA Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/kenmore-wa/home-values/
We must import millions of famine victims from failed states to build our permanent Democrat supermajority of dependency voters….for the children.
https://amp.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/mar/07/famine-warning-signs-were-clear-so-why-are-20-million-lives-now-at-risk
Wouldn’t it be more effective to ship them several boat loads of rice and beans?
They can’t be entitlement voters until they’re resettled in the red states.
You won’t make 50 mil salary and bonus by sending rice and beans.
We need to send them bombs, fighter planes & guns.
So…..Who kicked the beehive over there? I miss Sadam.
Remember when 45 said,”I love Wikileaks”
What goes around comes around.
It’s not working.
Way too many out there know and on your screens they do not show.
Yet.
PS
I’m surprised you two got those post up, the owner said no más .
CAT = FRAUD
Why does that surprise you?
USSA = FRAUD
Word….
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2017/03/07/what-the-hell-is-going-on
Captain Cook, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 13% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/captain-cook-hi/home-values/