A Lot Of Buyer Remorse Going On
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Prices are out of range for at least 205,000 households in Denver. Memories of the housing market crash of 2008 are still on the minds of real estate agents, officials and homeowners. Most avoid using the word ‘bubble,’ but rising home values and readily-available mortgage loans are nonetheless raising some eyebrows. Still, Robert Smith, Lakewood’s economic development director isn’t worried about a collapse. ‘All markets will rise and fall,’ Smith said. ‘It is tempting to look back a decade ago, then view the current rising housing market and fear a bursting bubble will not be far behind.’”
“Castle Rock Realtor Sandi Zimmerman agrees that the area is in the seventh year of a cycle, but after 38 years in the real estate business, she’s not as confident in the outcome. ‘This is my third time of seeing this,’ she said, ‘I wish I had a crystal ball… I don’t know how much longer this is going to last.’ An annual uptick in permits for new homes, easy availability of loans and the cyclical nature of the real estate business give caution to her optimism. ‘Normally, about the end of seven years you’re seeing that it’s going to stop or plateau or start to come back down,’ she said. ‘What goes up must come down.’”
“West Bremerton has long been a bastion of affordable housing in Kitsap. The county’s largest city remains its cheapest housing market. But even in Bremerton, costs are shooting up. ‘We expected this would happen,’ Kitsap Association of Realtors CEO Mike Eliason said. ‘The prolonged effect of low inventory and high demand eventually spreads.’ Other brokers speculated the market had finally burned through a ’shadow inventory’ of short sales and bank-owned properties that dragged down the median price.”
“The gulf between the amount of affordable housing in Redmond and Prineville and the number of people who could potentially use it is greater than any other city in Central Oregon. And Madras, which is home to 9 percent of the households that make 60 percent or less of the city’s AMI, has 11 percent of Central Oregon’s affordable housing units. ‘Relative to the need, Madras is overbuilt in affordable units,’ said Laura Cooper, vice chair of the Housing Works Board of Commissioners.”
“The Chicago real estate market is continuing with the yo-yo theme in February after January hit a 10 year high in home sales. Once again I need to point out that the single family home inventory picture varies widely depending upon neighborhood and price point with a bit of a glut at the upper end - and it’s getting worse.”
“Talk about supply side economics! Wilbur Ross, the newly-minted U.S. Secretary of Commerce who made his fortune investing in distressed assets, looks to be selling his luxury apartment at a loss. The billionaire investor is asking $16.5 million for his Midtown penthouse — less than the $18 million he paid for the luxurious duplex in 2007, and several million dollars below the $21 million he sought when he tried to sell the apartment back in 2015.”
“Collier County is showing signs of a slowdown in the new home market after seeing a frenzy of residential construction, especially at the higher end. The latest report by Metrostudy shows an excess of new homes sitting vacant in the county. At the south end of the county, half of the total new-home inventory can be classified as finished and vacant. The other half is either under construction or on display as models.”
“More competition could translate into more builder incentives — and lower prices, making it even more of a buyer’s market. ‘The bubble is already there for new homes. It’s already out there. Pricing is not going to go up a whole lot,’ said David Cobb, Metrostudy’s regional director in South Florida.”
“New Orleans metropolitan area home prices surged in the suburbs and slowed in the city center during the last half of 2016, according to a report. ‘We do have a lot of buyer remorse going on,’ said Wade Ragas of Real Property Associates, who authored the report. ‘People who bought in the most high-demand neighborhoods in 2015 paid top of the market, and huge price gains couldn’t be sustained, he said. But buyers might have expected their values to continue going up at 10 percent a year.’”
“A planned $30 million, six-storey apartment complex set to be Nelson’s ‘biggest and most expensive’ has been withdrawn from the market because of low pre-sales. Developer Bernard Downey said last year that unless 70 per cent of apartments were sold before April, construction would be pushed back. On Tuesday he said he would review the entire design after being ‘quite a ways off’ the sales goal. Downey said the prices were to blame for the low buyer uptake. ‘I can say that I wasn’t surprised … there was always that suspicion in my mind that this was perhaps too pricey for the Nelson market.’”
“Donald has building designs in Auckland and Wellington, but it was his Mission Bay design that captured Downey’s eye for the Nelson build. ‘To build in the mid-range sector was quite crowded with all these buildings coming online. I thought it would be better to go to the top-end of the market … quality always sells,’ he said then.”
“A special survey by ‘Globes’ of the 30 leading luxury deals in 2016 found that the measures imposed on investors by Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon had their effect. ‘The fall in housing prices is beginning with the drop in prices we are already seeing for luxury housing, because that’s where it begins,’ Minister of Construction and Housing Yoav Galant said.”
“According to Yigal Zemach, CEO of Berggruen Residential, ‘Just before the measures became effective in mid-2015, we closed huge deals in the project, and after they went into effect, we saw clearly that the type of customer had changed. Those looking to make a quick profit by buying and selling after occupancy no longer came.’”
“Westpac chief Brian Hartzer says China’s clampdown on moving money out of its economy is taking a toll on inner-city apartment markets in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. There are signs that a glut of lower-quality apartments built for Chinese buyers is forming as they ran into trouble settling their off-the-plan purchases, Mr Hartzer says.”
“‘There has been a significant ramp up in construction and a big chunk of that has probably been targeting overseas buyers whose desire for the nature of the property is not necessarily of the quality that locals will want,’ he said. ‘As a consequence, particularly of the crackdown in China of outflows of capital, what we are seeing in a number of those developments is the foreign buyers who put the money down to buy the apartment are now having trouble settling. That is potentially creating a glut of supply, which may or may not be what the local buyers want to buy.’”
“It was important to drill down into the details in individual property markets, he said, adding that Westpac remained relaxed about lending to a high-quality development targeting local buyers in Melbourne’s Docklands. ‘You can go half a dozen blocks away and find another apartment building with a very small footprint targeting overseas buyers who don’t plan to live there and it is in trouble,’ he said.”
It was mighty kind of the OPEC to hand over a big price spike AND a large increase in market share to U.S. producers. Is the sudden price plunge an attempt to wrong foot them?
MarketWatch dot com
Oil’s tug of war gives way for a price collapse
By Myra P. Saefong
Published: Mar 9, 2017 3:24 p.m. ET
Analysts say crude prices could fall to $40 a barrel this year
AFP/Getty Images
The oil market is playing its own tug of war game.
Rising U.S. crude production and overbought conditions in the market have combined to undermine OPEC-led efforts to reduce global output, fueling a plunge in oil prices to their lowest levels of the year.
Prices for West Texas Intermediate crude (CLJ7, +0.69%) sank by 5.4% on Wednesday and posted a 2% loss Thursday to finish below the key $50 level, but they could fall to $40 a barrel this year.
Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries “didn’t reduce their production volumes to bring the U.S. shale producers ‘back into the game,’” analysts at Secular Investor said in a research note Thursday.
But as OPEC members and some non-OPEC producers show strong compliance with the agreement to collectively cut output by roughly 1.8 million barrels a day in the first six months of this year, production from the U.S., which didn’t take part in the deal, has climbed to its highest level in more than a year, and is expected to climb even more.
…
Seems pretty straightforward to me…OPEC wanted to sell less oil at $50 per barrel, and US producers decided that they would be happy to sell more at $50 per barrel.
Sounds to me like a great recipe for hysteresis at or perhaps below $50 a barrel.
“Most avoid using the word ‘bubble,’ but rising home values and readily-available mortgage loans are nonetheless raising some eyebrows.”
Most people who walk past a graveyard whistle loudly to avoid having to raise their eyebrows.
“West Bremerton has long been a bastion of affordable housing in Kitsap. The county’s largest city remains its cheapest housing market. But even in Bremerton, costs are shooting up. ‘We expected this would happen,’ Kitsap Association of Realtors CEO Mike Eliason said.”
Cuz everyone wants to live in West Bremerton?
More that they can’t afford to live in Seattle, so they settle for Bremerton (which just approved faster commuter ferry service into downtown Seattle). 30% increase is crazy though, given that (when I was looking in that area a few years ago) a lot of houses there city are older and a bit dilapidated.
^+1 on that.
An hour ferry ride to downtown Seattle, on which you can relax and have your coffee while you surf the ‘net, is a better option than sitting in bumper-to-bumper traffic for an hour on I-5, after which you are frazzled and in a bad mood.
As long as you don’t have to take your car…then it’s an expensive trip.
Fixer-uppers can be fixed or replaced with gentrified new housing. The faster commuter ferry could be a game changer.
“The billionaire investor is asking $16.5 million for his Midtown penthouse — less than the $18 million he paid for the luxurious duplex in 2007, and several million dollars below the $21 million he sought when he tried to sell the apartment back in 2015.”
Not being a billionaire investor myself, I have to wonder how much a $1.5.million loss could possibly matter to him.
By contrast, lots of folks who leveraged themselves to buy similar priced properties in 2007 must be losing their shirts about now.
He made his money being a vulture investor and now 10 years of gains are gone. And it hasn’t sold.
‘The biggest price cuts on luxury pads last week’
‘Six apartments at the W Hotel and Residences received the largest reduction’
‘A total of 20 homes in the city’s over-$10 million market saw price chops of more than 5 percent in the period between Feb. 27 through March 6, according to data from StreetEasy.’
‘Many of these pricey pads have already been reduced several times. Some have even seen their price tags drop by more than $10 million since first hitting the market.’
I forget how long this weekly report has been coming out now. But there’s no bubble.
Seems almost as though prices are suddenly in a free fall.
I caught the irony.
the re deflation was obvious in summer 2005. I went to pick up the newspaper the day after the 4th and looking down the street 4sale signs were like mushrooms.
I don’t get the 06,07 BS
Real estate is sticky on the way down…..
Not being a billionaire investor myself, I have to wonder how much a $1.5.million loss could possibly matter to him.
People like that think they piss perfume. Any loss sticks in their craw.
“The median price for homes sold in West Bremerton climbed from $145,000 in 2015 to $190,000 in 2016, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service statistics. The 30 percent year-over-year gain represented the largest price jump for any Kitsap neighborhood.”
Good grief. How many other hell holes around the U.S. saw a 30 percent price spike last year?
In Dangerous Places
These Are The 10 Most Dangerous Places In Washington
Looking for a safe place for you and your family in Washington? These are some spots you might want to avoid.
Alex Huggins
Real Estate
Washington
When starting your home search, in Washington as well as in other places, safety is often a chief priority. Whether you’re on your own or have a family to think about, finding a place where you feel comfortable and secure is a concern that needs to be addressed. Here at the Movoto Real Estate Blog, we understand how difficult that home search can be, and we’ve made a list that can help you on your way. We crunched some FBI crime data and discovered which places in the state of Washington were the safest, as well as the most dangerous. That later category is what we’ll be looking at today. Out of all the places in Washington, these were the most dangerous:
1. City of Tukwila
2. City of Yakima
3. City of Spokane
4. City of Burien
5. City of Tacoma
6. City of SeaTac
7. City of Centralia
8. City of Auburn
9. City of Longview
10. City of Bremerton (tie)
10. City of Port Orchard (tie)
If you’re wondering, Bremerton and Port Orchard tied for 10th, so that’s why there are 11 places on this list. Curious where your hometown ranked? You can see a list of the 50 most dangerous places in the state at the bottom of this post, and check to see if your locale is one of them. If you’re just wondering how we created this ranking, you can read all about it in the very next section.
…
Medina didn’t make the list. Whew.
‘Lenders Pull Back the Reins on New Construction in San Francisco’
‘readily-available mortgage loans are nonetheless raising some eyebrows…easy availability of loans’
Toxic Mortgage Inc….. “We make it easy”… “no appraisal”
‘an excess of new homes sitting vacant in the county. At the south end of the county, half of the total new-home inventory can be classified as finished and vacant. The other half is either under construction or on display as models.’
‘More competition could translate into more builder incentives — and lower prices, making it even more of a buyer’s market. ‘The bubble is already there for new homes. It’s already out there.’
This isn’t luxury. Not anymore.
Makes one wonder what is going to become of all the new $1 million dollar plus tract homes recently built in North County San Diego!
Demand from the Chinese with fake Yuan??
Just saw a Jim The Realtor video this morning of a brand new 1 story for over a mil in Vista. Vista!!! Yeah, I guess if you have a big spread it might be worth it, but I dont think this place was a ranch or similar.
Jim called the last bubble. I used to read his site, then I sold So Cal in 2004
I’ve been stuck in Vista for a few months on business. Can’t imagine why anyone would pay a million dollars to live here. Downtown’s OK, but the nicer neighborhoods are far from downtown. You’re not near the beach, it’s inland so it gets hot, and it’s only conveniently located if you stay around the 78 corridor. If you want to go anywhere else it’s a 15-20 minute drive just to get to the 5 or the 15.
The median price — the price at which half the homes sell for more, and half for less — dipped 2.2 percent to $432,450, yet it remained the highest in the state.
Nope, it’s not luxury anymore, it’s just oversupply. I guess they are running out of Baby Boomers to live in a $400K retirement house. What’s the job base in Naples?
On a side note, this is pretty cute: If you go to Google Maps in Naples, and try to drop the little street-view man onto a street, he turns into a merman.
There is no job base in Naples that doesn’t directly or indirectly involve catering to the needs of super-wealthy retirees. A few of those jobs pay well; most don’t. For awhile, hourly labor was being bussed in from Immokalee.
I was just in Naples two nights ago. Hertz moved the headquarters there and built an office building and parking garage. I don’t believe the average Napaliese knows the market is getting bubblicious, but there is new construction everywhere.
Alameda, CA Housing Prices Plunge 11% YoY As Bay Area Rental Rates Dive
https://www.zillow.com/alameda-ca/home-values/
HA, you can keep changing your name, but 5 years of claiming declining prices just makes you look more foolish every year. Alameda housing is up 7% over last year. The data, my friend….The data! HA!
Data my good friend. Stick with the data.
Bonita Springs, FL Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/bonita-springs-fl/home-values/
‘There are signs that a glut of lower-quality apartments built for Chinese buyers is forming as they ran into trouble settling their off-the-plan purchases, Mr Hartzer says.’
‘There has been a significant ramp up in construction and a big chunk of that has probably been targeting overseas buyers whose desire for the nature of the property is not necessarily of the quality that locals will want,’ he said. ‘As a consequence, particularly of the crackdown in China of outflows of capital, what we are seeing in a number of those developments is the foreign buyers who put the money down to buy the apartment are now having trouble settling.’
This has been building for a while and the REIC tries to deny it, but they’re full of crap as usual. Some things are exposed, not new to readers here. One: these Chinese don’t have the money. Two: they were being sold junk air boxes, built just for them. Isn’t that special?
Remember the NYC broker, Dolly something, who loudly bragged that Australia towers were selling out in a day to all-Chinese investors? Some of these units don’t have external windows, for example. That’s just an idea of what “low quality” they’re talking about.
‘Some of these units don’t have external windows, for example. That’s just an idea of what “low quality” they’re talking about.’
If nothing else has been learned from this episode in financial history, it has been demonstrated beyond any reasonable doubt that a massive excess of central bank printing press money naturally seeks a stupid place to die.
Think about how complete the corruption is here. These buyers had loans, they are just denied now (these were pre-construction purchases). City planners, developers, UHS, lenders, everybody was in on the scam. All knew it would blow up and didn’t care. Most of all, the buyers didn’t care. They would simply sell to a greater fool for huge profits. Or walk away if it didn’t work out.
It seems like there is little consequence to defaulting in this day and age.
But then, since it was just printing press money hastily created out of thin air, where is the harm?
Instantly underwater by hundreds of thousands of dollars:
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/see-the-denver-homes-that-sold-for-the-biggest-percentages-over-list-price-in-february
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-aWlN1r70nbg/UvAUn5K1j4I/AAAAAAAAA08/kvv18w6KbPQ/s1600/scubadivingdonkey.png
California exports its poor to Texas, other states, while wealthier people move in
BY PHILLIP REESE
California exports more than commodities such as movies, new technologies and produce. It also exports truck drivers, cooks and cashiers.
Every year from 2000 through 2015, more people left California than moved in from other states. This migration was not spread evenly across all income groups, a Sacramento Bee review of U.S. Census Bureau data found. The people leaving tend to be relatively poor, and many lack college degrees. Move higher up the income spectrum, and slightly more people are coming than going.
About 2.5 million people living close to the official poverty line left California for other states from 2005 through 2015, while 1.7 million people at that income level moved in from other states – for a net loss of 800,000. During the same period, the state experienced a net gain of about 20,000 residents earning at least five times the poverty rate – or $100,000 for a family of three.
Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/article136478098.html#storylink=cpy
how about the illegals, are they still moving in?
free hc, stamps etc
Over the last 15 years the number of people moving in to Cali that are taxpayers has been dwarfed by the number of leeches moving in. I saw the writing on the wall and got the h3ll out over 10 years ago when the opportunity presented itself. Wealthy moving to Cali? I’m guessing thats some dumb money. Maybe they counting all the Chinese that are in the process of getting fleeced? Hey, its laundered money anyway!
California isn’t exporting anything. That is to say, the State of California isn’t buying folks bus tickets out of state or anything like that, as the headline ridiculously asserts. Rather, the middle class and lower class are migrating to other states as a matter of their personal choice. Why the newspaper can’t say that is beyond me. Obviously, California doesn’t have the ability to export people. You would think that the newspaper would know that. The simple fact is that the state is becoming too expensive for poor and middle class people to live in. That would have been a headline much more accurately descriptive of the content of the article.
On the flip side, California is importing illegals and homeless
Years ago, I saw data that showed how the pattern of immigration/emigration to/from CA followed home prices. When home prices were at a cyclical low, people moved into CA, when home prices were at a cyclical high, people moved out of CA.
Yep…And for any number of reasons…I have a number of friends who have moved because of state tax on their pensions…Others have moved because they can buy a house for cash and put more money in the bank than a lifetime of 401K savings has provided them…
‘they can buy a house for cash and put more money in the bank than a lifetime of 401K savings has provided them’
We heard that a lot a few years ago. All paid for by a loan some other family took out. It works until it doesn’t.
We heard that a lot a few years ago. All paid for by a loan some other family took out. It works until it doesn’t.
Happened with my parents…they sold our family house in 2004 that they owned for close to 40 years, moved closer to my brother and paid cash for a smaller house on less land.
The first buyer of the house over-paid, over-borrowed, rode the prices up for a couple of years and then got smashed in the crash–they didn’t lose the house in foreclosure, but they had problems and sold it just a few year ago.
Now our family home is owned by a local business owner who I used to work for in High School–small world, small town sh*t. The price he paid was about $160k less than the prior owner paid almost 10 years earlier.
Which brings to mind: aren’t we glad we live in an age of financial and economic sophistication, where kooky ponzi schemes built on life crushing debt aren’t the only thing our “elites” can cook up? It would all be academic and entertaining if the participants could just keep from sticking the occasional shotgun in their mouth.
Shotgun? Nah, I’d say that more of them are jumping off balconies in NYC.
I was talking to a high schooler on my last trip to CA. He said he and his friends had pretty much agreed there’s no way they’ll stay in CA once they get out of college and start working due to the ginormous housing cost. His particular family is looking to sell their San Mateo SFR and buy 100+ acres in flyover.
The undocumenteds also come up here to Washington State because they can get a driver’s license w/o proof of citizenship AND as a bonus, get registered to vote at the same time (motor voter law).
Because of this, the WA state driver’s license does not meet the federal Real ID law, and soon we will not be able to use it to board an airplane.
The state’s solution for this? Modify our license so it states right on the top that it does not meet the federal ID requirements.
I am not making this stuff up. Our state governor (Jay Inslee) is going to run for the president in 2020.
WA is California Del Norte.
My neighbors moved from S. CA to Spokane WA
I have to believe we at least export movies and agricultural products.
That is to say, the State of California isn’t buying folks bus tickets out of state or anything like that, as the headline ridiculously asserts.
The headline writer doesn’t equate California with the state government.
Yup, because it’s the desert, the mountains and the sunshine of California which do the “exporting.”
It also exports truck drivers, cooks and cashiers.
Fortunately they don’t need any of those things done. They’ve got robots for that. Well…soon anyway. Maybe.
They already have robots for the cashiers…
Rise of the Machines: A Burger Flipping Robot Is About To Start Work at a Fast Food Chain
By Mike Pomranz
Posted March 08, 2017
Flippy is here to help
The term “burger flipper” is often used as a derogatory way of referring to someone working a low-paying job (sometimes, but not always, literally flipping burgers) that is generally seen as the kind of gig that could be done by anyone. And that’s paraphrasing the politest definition on Urban Dictionary. But if you think burger flipping is more complex than the haters like to let on, science hasn’t done you any favors as of late: CaliBurger, a chain whose last sustained time in the spotlight was occurred because it was too much like In-N-Out Burger is the latest restaurant to announce it’ll be using a burger flipping robot to handle grill duties.
Created by Miso Robotics, “Flippy” is billed as an even better alternative to using a lowly human being to upend burger patties in your commercial kitchen. According to a promotional video, “Flippy cooks burgers perfectly – every time,” implying whoever fast food joints have in their kitchens now are achieving less than perfection.
The burger flipping robot is also equipped with cameras and sensors that allow it “to see,” meaning it “collaborates in real-time” thanks to “intelligent Cooking AI software.” The video even boast that Flippy can “politely move out of the way” – you know, if someone rudely bumps into it screaming something like, “Damn you, Flippy! I need this job to pay my rent!” Oh, and unlike some fancy high school graduate who still requires training no matter how many AP classes he took, Flippy can “be installed in less than five minutes.”
Earlier this week, CaliBurger – an international chain that operates in twelve countries, including the US where it now has seven locations – announced it would roll out Flippy in more than 50 locations by the end of 2019, according to Nation’s Restaurant News. For now, the robot is getting a test run at a location in Pasadena, California, near both the CaliBurger and the Miso Robotics headquarters (which I assume could be very helpful if the robot suddenly becomes sentient and seeks to meet its creator).
http://www.foodandwine.com/news/burger-flipping-robot-at-caliburger-chain
It’s getting scary for the kids in my classroom who do nothing but text and giggle.
Can’t believe what awaits those kids. BTW really enjoyed your “Dubliners” book.
I just had a vision of Disneyland staffed by AI’s and Robots. Everything is peachy until the robots go Cylon and begin to kill the patrons.
Kidding aside, I have read that Disney is struggling to hire “cast members” for its Anaheim theme parks as the pay is low and the cost of living is stratospheric.
I think they should build the robots with the intention of killing the patrons. Those who make it out alive will spread the word about Disneyland.
that 6% commission+=1% paint, trans taxes, etc
EXIT FEE
looms large
Oh dear. Are tapped-out consumers eating out less?
http://www.businessinsider.com/chipotle-shuts-down-shophouse-2017-3
Fifteen restaurants in a country the size of America indicates nothing. There are many of these chains. Some are growing while others are shrinking. Some new chains are formed as others go bankrupt.
Ankle biter with too much time on his hands.
So that term must refer to people who dwell in a world of facts and common sense.
Data my friend.
Clarksville, MD Housing Prices Crater 19% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/clarksville-md/home-values/
Sounds like their their Thai fast/casual experiment was a bust.
But yeah, people are indeed eating out less. The high cost and the low quality are reasons behind it. I can make a Filet Mignon dinner at home for less than going out for upscale burgers at places like Smashburger or 5 Guys.
I don’t know if it’s just our location in West Hollywood or what, but the Five Guys Burger prices are out of control.
$7.89 for a puny cheeseburger
$3.09 for a “little fries” - LITERALLY FRIED POTATOES
$2.39 for a “regular drink” - a few CENTS of SUGAR WATER!
Add 9% tax on that and you’re up to $14.45!
I think it HAS to be the CRE bubble. We have so much empty commercial real estate lining our major streets and MORE coming on line with apartment/condo towers with bottom floor retail and yet the landlords continue to jack up and charge sky high prices for space.
There have been so many restaurants at all levels that have come and gone in the past 5 years, it’s a running joke now that we put money down on when we think a new place is going to close.
It’s just as bad in Denver, though their “little fries” are enough to for 2-3 people. Even at Wendy’s you’ll drop $10 for a combo.
I can pick up a 4 pack of tenderloins at Sam’s Club for about $30 ($11.99/lb). That’s $7.50 per steak. I can saute some veggies and mushrooms for about $2-3 per person. And it isn’t hard work. It’s easy peasy.
Talked to a sales rep yesterday who told me he is going in on a new Mediterranean restaurant by the junior college can’t miss because of all the collage traffic. I told him it better be cheap because college kids are flat out broke these days.
I know the location and have seen restaurants, 7-11, nail salons, used book stores, tobacco shop, bakery all go out of business leaving the place 3/4 empty.
Gas station with a subway inside, a Starbucks, a McDonald’s and a spooky Scientology place are still there.
Good luck
College kids may be broke, but that doesnt mean they dont have a pocket full of green to spend on whatever shiny thing catches their eye courtesy of every hook nosed lender in this country. Guy I work with just killed off his college loan, I think he’s around 32 or so, makes close to 6 figures but went to a really really expensive school that isnt particularly good - I’ve heard it called ivy league for dumb people - and when asked why he chose the place (crummy town too, one of the sketchiest in the country which is why I asked) he said it was due to the scholarship they offered.
The first hit is always free.
Also, surprised you noted a tobacco shop going out of business. Did they not sell bongs, er, smoking accessories?
“…it was due to the scholarship they offered.”
My brother-in-law had a very generous offer from USC, but half a day riding around the area on a bicycle put the kibosh to that idea.
It’s not just where you live. That place is way overpriced. I can buy a pound of organic ground beef and two large potatoes at Publix here in Tampa for what it costs to eat at Five Guys.
My family doesn’t ask to get burgers out anymore…apparently I’ve figured out a burger that all of them like better than what you get out.
The beautiful part is that it’s just ground chuck.
Did you buy a burger there?
If so, maybe they are simply charging what they can.
What happens to DB’s massive derivatives exposure if this “too big to fail” bank goes under?
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/09/deutsche-bank-plan-to-stay-alive-raise-capital-biggest-shareholders/
Hence why billions of Euros have been parked in negative rate bonds.
While Yellen the Felon sees no inflation, the soaring costs of living is hitting retirees (and everybody else) hard. Sorry, Boomers, but your house isn’t going to fund your comfortable retirements.
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2017/03/why-is-cost-of-living-so-unaffordable.html
Beware the Ides of March as the black swans proliferate.
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2017/03/10/the-bag-holder-and-his-bag/
Boulder, CO Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/boulder-co/home-values
Decent jobs number today…wages rising. Let’s see if it’s a blip, or a trend.
I heard an interesting exchange on NPR the other day that I think is part of the reason…this is between Kai Ryssdal and a chicken farmer:
“Ryssdal: You are, as we’ve said before on this program when we’ve talked to you, are an economist, an actual, like, Ph.D.-trained economist. You are also a guy running a small business in this economy. I would love your sense of what you think of the current political environment in which this economy now is operating.
Fryar: I’m a member of a group that meets here in northwest Arkansas. We meet about once a month; there’s about a dozen CEOs of similar size companies to us. And after the election, it was just like night and day in terms of our outlook for our business and all of our businesses, and it’s almost for the last six years. It’s almost like a war on jobs and a war on business. And that feels just the opposite today.
Ryssdal: So you’re hopeful then?
Fryar: Much, much more so than I was six months ago.”
REMEMBER, the jobs number is a NET number…the difference between all the hires and all the fires in a given month. Optimism can result in hiring more, or simply holding off letting someone go if you think things are getting better.
This could be temporary.
Hopefully this will continue.
The actual interview was funny…I think Kai was surprised at the farmer’s answer.
It’s probably safe to say that Ryssdal has never run a business and has no clue of the hurdles a small business owner has to face.
A quick looksie on wikipedia shows that he served in the Navy, then worked for .gov as a civilian before joining the Marketplace radio show staff.
Chicken farmers were the first folks to import cheap illegal immigrants and forced them into diapers, all while Obama looked the other way. How hopeful will this chicken farmer going to be when Trump sends out ICE?
Is chicken farming labor intensive? It seems to be ripe for automation.
I’m guessing they know their business better than I (or you) know their business.
If they feel better than they did under the previous administration, there is probably a good reason.
bama polled in the 20s w small biz owners
racis
Or perhaps thousands upon thousands of pages of laws, rules and regulations are simply very hard for small business owners to follow.
I suppose that they would know the business better. But from what I have observed, the Chickens are shoved in cages, fed, fattened and then harvested. The growing stage doesn’t sound too labor intensive. The slaughter and meat packing part does sound labor intensive and it does run like an assembly line, from what I have seen in documentaries. FWIW, those jobs use to be filled by Americans and paid a decent wage. The arrival of illegals put an end to that.
I spent last night in Apartment 402 (sadly not with its female former resident) because today Apartment 401 is having all of its carpet replaced with laminate, at an out of pocket cost to me of zero.
No trips to Loan Depot, no dealing with contractors, just a few hours to move all my stuff 20 feet down the hall and then move it back into 401 this weekend.
Only renters get to live like this.
Perhaps you won’t feel it, O Ye of the Dying Rich Relative, but a mere mortal will know full well how lifelong renters get to live when they are about 65.
Hey Donk.
“401 is having all of its carpet replaced with laminate, at an out of pocket cost to me of zero.”
You might want to take a picture of the manufacturer’s info on one of those laminate boxes just in case you find a lump that didn’t used to be there somewhere down the road.
You don’t want to miss out on your class action status.
Danger of some laminate wood flooring was underestimated, report says
By Debra Goldschmidt, CNN
Updated 11:30 AM ET, Wed March 23, 2016
(CNN)Everyone exposed to formaldehyde in some laminate flooring could experience adverse health effects, according to a revised report issued by several government agencies. The revised report, released Tuesday, also found lifetime cancer risk from the flooring to be higher than identified in the original version of the report.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/22/health/health-effect-laminate-wood-flooring/
The Most Underrated Story About the U.S. Economy
Income growth is faster at the bottom than at the top. Thank a growing economy, falling unemployment, and minimum-wage hikes across the country.
DEREK THOMPSON MAR 9, 2017
For decades, the story was simple: The gap between the rich and the poor grew ever-wider as incomes increased faster at the top than the bottom. The story was true, too. Wages have been rising faster for the top 5 percent than for the bottom 20 percent almost every year this century.
But in a remarkable reversal, annual wage growth has been greater (as a percent) for the poor than for the rich in the last few years. A new report by the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute found that wages grew faster in 2016 for the poorest quintile than for the richest. The trend was particularly pronounced for white workers. The poorest 10 percent of white workers collectively saw a 5.1 percent raise in 2016, twice as faster as the 2 percent growth among the richest decile percent.
This good news isn’t just an artifact of a single think tank’s artisanal number crunching. The Atlanta Fed has also found that the three-month moving average of wage growth reached a post-recession high in November 2016. Non-white incomes have recently been growing faster than whites’, reversing yet another post-recession trend. And this might be the most surprising detail of all: Wages for high-school graduates are growing as fast as those for college grads for the first time since 1998, when the Atlanta Fed’s dataset begins.
Why is this finally happening? The answer involves a fortuitous mix of policy changes and ongoing economic growth.
“The two leading factors are the tightening labor market and the state-level minimum wage increases,” said Elise Gould, a senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute. Labor protests like the Fight for $15 movement contributed to minimum-wage increases in several states and cities. The impact has been obvious: Wages for the poorest 10 percent grew two-times faster in states with minimum-wage increases.
But wage growth for the poor ticked up even in states without minimum-wage hikes. That’s because a falling unemployment rate is especially critical for pushing up wage growth for the poor. With each percentage-point fall in unemployment, it’s the bottom decile that sees the most wage growth.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/03/wages-rising/519114/
Are they just comparing paychecks or the whole package?
Top managers , directors whatever get paid in other ways than salaries which get taxed at their top rate.
Stock options is one popular way long term capital gain if you set it up right. More risk but they don’t usually live pay check to paycheck so they can take the risk reward.
If you count benefits, lower wage earners did even better…especially if they get healthcare through work.
Most employees get the same healthcare coverage (with perhaps the exception as the tippy top employees), but it’s a larger share of lower wage employees total compensation. So, if the cost of health insurance goes up by 15%, and you count that as part of total comp, then it increases the total comp of the low wage folks more than the rest.
A guy did a study on this effect using government data…apparently looking at total comp does effect whether your conclusion is greater (or lesser) income inequality over different timeframes.
A very large portion of all low wage jobs don’t include health insurance.
Uh, I think Obama fixed that. Havent you been paying attention? He also stopped the seas from rising. Busy dude.
No, I was referring to health insurance as an employment benefit. My words were clear.
Labor Force Participation Rate Falls To 38 Year Low; Joblessness At Record High
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/americans-not-labor-force-participation-rate-risesdrops
Here is something interesting:
http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/articulo/nacion/politica/2017/03/10/promueve-cardenas-demanda-para-anular-cesion-de-territorio-eu
Mexican politician Cuautemoc Cardenas is filing a lawsuit saying that the treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, which ceded what is basically the US southwest from Mexico to the USA, was illegal and is thus null and void and that said territories should be returned to Mexico.
This is obviously a political stunt. Of course, this would have to be taken to some international court. It would be interesting to see how the US would react if some international court (say in the UN) ruled that California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas and part of Colorado are to be returned to Mexico.
This came up before and I for one would jump at the chance to rescind this treaty. The part of Texas the US got is worthless. The other states are sun baked BLM land anyway. Plus, it would auto-deport several million illegals.
In further reading, what Cardenas is really seeking are reparations. No dollar figure was quoted, though Cardenas was quoted that Mexico should be paid in gold or Pesos, since the the USD is, in his words: “worthless since the 1970’s”
If such reparations were to happen (which they won’t) it would be hilarious to witness the ensuing pilfering of that swag. It would disappear in no time flat and Mexico would have nothing to show for it. I think it would be likely that the windfall, after being swindled, would wind up back in the USA, either in bank deposits or asset purchases.
Reparations? Didn’t the US pay money to Mexico as part of the treaty? $15 million in 1848 = $422,439,967
Seems to me if they want it back then they need to pay back the $422,439,967 plus improvements.. you know, roads, water, infrastructure?
Oh and they’ve got a lot of work to do in California in regards to infrastructure…
haha let them have it. I’ll be out of here in a second. It’s not like most of LA doesn’t look like Mexico anyway…
That was the Gadsen Purchase, a separate deal. The US purchased a relatively small portion of land that today is the southern portions of Arizona and New Mexico,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gadsden_Purchase#/media/File:UnitedStatesExpansion.png
Seems to me if they want it back then they need to pay back the $422,439,967 plus improvements.. you know, roads, water, infrastructure?
They don’t want it back. They just want 160+ years of “rent owed”.
“Castle Rock Realtor Sandi Zimmerman agrees that the area is in the seventh year of a cycle, but after 38 years in the real estate business, she’s not as confident in the outcome. ‘This is my third time of seeing this,’ she said, ‘I wish I had a crystal ball… I don’t know how much longer this is going to last.’
Only a matter of time - I see it first hand every single day living in CR.
Where’s crow-breath?
“Saudi Arabia appears to have made a tactical mistake, surrendering the hard fought market share gains earned since 2014 back to U.S. producers and non-OPEC countries. Fiscal pressures on Riyadh’s budget, and months of “verbal intervention” in the market by promising a supply cap deal, forced the oil sheiks to tighten their spigots. Since January, a 1.8-million-barrel production cut has enjoyed a 94 percent compliance rate within OPEC.”
“But non-OPEC compliance — including by countries like Russia — stands at just 60 percent to 66 percent. And U.S. oil companies are revving up.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-oil-prices-tanking-where-131500828.html
‘We do have a lot of buyer remorse going on,’ said Wade Ragas of Real Property Associates. ‘People who bought in the most high-demand neighborhoods in 2015 paid top of the market, and huge price gains couldn’t be sustained, he said. But buyers might have expected their values to continue going up at 10 percent a year.’
They think that in a lot of places Wade.
Future of America - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4295400/Spring-Breakers-defy-drink-ban-twerk-flash-fight.html
i see the obesity rates are spot on.
“i see the obesity rates are spot on.”
It’s getting difficult to buy an affordable starter home these days and even more difficult to carry your bride through the front door.
When they default on the student loans, you will be the one paying for this.
Amerikka, what a fukushima!
Sacramento, CA Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/south-land-park-sacramento-ca/home-values/
Prices are out of range for at least 205,000 households in Denver
I’ll bet that if all Denver households had to start over and become first time buyers that precious few could afford to buy a house in Denver at the current prices.
Memories of the housing market crash of 2008 are still on the minds of real estate agents, officials and homeowners
The only thing the lunch bunch will concede is that “prices are a little high”, but they will then quickly turn optimistic and sing that prices can still rise some more.
Most avoid using the word ‘bubble’
The denial is strong with the lunch bunch. I guess they like to talk about the “sweet appreciation” they’ve been getting and hate to think that it could all just vanish at the wink of an eye.
Castle Rock Realtor Sandi Zimmerman agrees that the area is in the seventh year of a cycle, but after 38 years in the real estate business, she’s not as confident in the outcome. ‘This is my third time of seeing this,’ she said, ‘I wish I had a crystal ball… I don’t know how much longer this is going to last.
What? A realtor saying that future appreciation isn’t guaranteed? What is the world coming to?
“I’ll bet that if all Denver households had to start over and become first time buyers that precious few could afford to buy a house in Denver at the current prices.”
That’s the point. Nobody could in the absence of subprime lending. Subprime lending is 90% of the market and has been for many years.
Cherry Creek ANB Bank sign for HELOCs “solutions for your dreams” LOLZ:
http://www.picpaste.com/20170310_152056.jpg
Campbell, CA Rental Rates Collapse 19% YoY On Skyrocketing Housinng Inventory
https://www.zillow.com/campbell-ca/home-values/
Should Boomers be assessed a “Most Worthless Generation in History” tax to help offset the messes they’re leaving to future generations?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/baby-boomers-ruined-america-according-to-this-generation-x-author-2017-03-10
Hmm…I don’t ever recall gold crashing $200 in a single day.
http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-crashes-after-the-sec-rejects-the-wiklevoss-twins-etf-2017-3
I’m sure you saw, there was the ZH article the other day about Arizona and their recent state legislation to remove capital gains taxes on gold profits (the metal, or futures too?), and also to make it legal tender.
Probably more fluff than anything, but even if it passed, there’s absolutely no way I would spend a gold coin for groceries or some day-to-day purchase. That said, I’m entirely in support of removing the capital gains tax on it, in particular for metal sales. If you’re speculating on futures, then sure, maybe the cap gains still applies.
I guess they are trying to reverse Gresham’s Law… not sure how well that is going to work.
One thing that might help, is to somehow set up a system where you can convert the metal “good money” to the paper “bad money” and back, without any transaction fees. If it was super easy to go back and forth, maybe the metal would be more widely desired as a store of value.
The problem is nobody except pawn shops and/or jewelers, or shady “we buy gold” places will even buy gold metal from you, if/when you want to convert some of it to paper money — and when you do, you automatically lose 3-5% (or whatever you can negotiate) in the transaction costs.
If there was a way to eliminate those fees, and could convert from metal to paper, back to metal, without any penalties — then sure, maybe we could get gold metal back in the system as actual currency for day-to-day things, but I just don’t see that happening.
btw, I am speaking as a Gold Bug. I love Gold. I have made a lot of paper money on it.
But realistically, unless we have a full scale meltdown and 99% of the population are dead…
Also — Gold may go up, Gold may go down, but as long as the people on TV are constantly trying to sell it to me, I don’t want to buy it.
I will never buy anything that people on TV are trying to sell. Their commercials run 24×7, constantly.
Be like the old guys — Buy something when nobody else wants it. Sell it when everyone wants it. Or something like that.
I’ll buy Gold again, some day. Heck I may buy some of it again just because it feels good. There is that. Cannot deny the feel of it in your hand.
Cannot deny the feel of it leaving your hand when you are broke and have to sell.
I think it would be better, if every local regular bank branch had a gold-to-paper conversion window, where you could buy or sell gold for free or a very inexpensive fee. That might legitimize it more than having to find a pawn shop, or some shady place.
I just can’t imagine spending an actual gold coin for, say, chicken or beans at the store. Only unless it was a serious, serious emergency and that’s all the shop owners would take. Full scale meltdown mode.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/990-Cheltenham-Rd-Santa-Barbara-CA-93105/15885313_zpid/
How expensive is a railing? What if a Realturd falls?
$1/2 mill pos - https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/San-Luis-Obispo-CA-93401/house,condo_type/2095058400_zpid/97241_rid/125000-825444_price/481-3179_mp/900-_size/35.43354,-120.317803,35.078055,-120.908318_rect/10_zm/1_fr/
sold in 4 days…….
SLO is not a high wage area.
SLO has few real jobs, avg household income is under $50k/
but students pay high rents.
How long before the worsening global debt crisis brings about the long-deferred financial reckoning day?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-bonds-g-idUSKBN16H1IX
New York County (Manhattan) Housing Prices Crater 12% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/new-york-county-ny/home-values
Dammmmm girl… just reviewed Zillow for 15 mins, price drops galore!
How’s that globalism and open borders working out for you, Sweden?
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/03/10/suspected-car-bomb-explodes-swedish-capital-stockholm/
sad story….School of Piano Technology for the Blind closing
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/mar/10/school-of-piano-technology-for-the-blind-closing/
Marin County, CA Rental Rates Crater 7% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/marin-county-ca/home-values/
Couldn’t wait until the morning to throw this out:
I left my apartment in West Hollywood, CA and saw a flyer stuck to the door promoting the two 1 bedroom units for 2300 and 2400 a month.
Fair enough but as I’m walking down the hill to a local watering hole I see the same flyer taped to a traffic sign two blocks south of my apartment: http://picpaste.com/20170311_014156-2eAwVoia.jpg
I met up with my unemployed roommate and he informed me he got a letter from the management company offering a $500 rent credit for a referral.
They. Are. Desperate.
crushing.housing.losses.
Redwood City, CA Rental Rates Crater 18% YoY On Record High Housing Inventory
https://www.zillow.com/redwood-city-ca/home-values/
Oh dear. I think I know how this movie ends, only Trump and Bannon will be disinclined to bail out banks who recklessly loaned money to poor credit risks.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-10/u-s-subprime-auto-loan-losses-reach-highest-level-since-crisis
when are all your doom an gloom prophecies going to come to fruition?
Cheer up my good friend… cheer up. Expanding housing affordability accelerates the economy.
Falls Church, VA Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/falls-church-va-22046/home-values/
When was the last time an AIPAC member had to register as a foreign agent?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/10/michael-flynn-foreign-agent-trump-transition-team
Sounds like a major headcount reduction may be in order at the State Department.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-us-state-department-senior-staff-literally-nothing-to-do-sidelined-spending-budget-cut-a7622406.html
Cloverdale, OR Housing Prices Plunge 6% YoY As Defaulted Housing Inventory Grows
https://www.zillow.com/cloverdale-or/home-values/