March 15, 2017

It Doesn’t Feel As Much Of A Gold Rush As It Did

A report from the Folsom Insider in California. “For probably the last 2 years, home buyers and their agents have been lamenting the fact that available housing inventory is low. It still is low, with 81 homes for sale in Folsom today, compared with 105 a year ago. The problem now is that the inventory that IS available isn’t what buyers want. Take a look at the chart above, for the past year, the average price for homes sold in Folsom has been just over $500,000, and during that time, the average home listed for sale has been $100,000 to $150,000 higher. That’s pretty significant in itself, but the pool for higher end home buyers is traditionally smaller than for more modest homes, so it stands to reason that the majority of sales are of lower to mid-priced homes.”

“In February, however, we saw a sudden spike in high-end listings, with the average home for sale in Folsom listed at $762,000. That is a huge difference from the month before, and we’re not sure why. It does raise some questions: Are the high-end home owners seeing or hearing something that tells them to sell now? Are owners of lower priced homes deciding to stay put? Are we at or near the top of the market? Or is this just a coincidental temporary spike?”

The Sun Sentinel in Florida. “Scott Agran, president of Lang Realty in Boca Raton, isn’t quite sure which way the South Florida housing market is headed. Sellers have had their say for about five years as prices continue to increase. But listings are more plentiful now, and buyers aren’t in as big a hurry as before, especially with their money doing so well on Wall Street. ‘We have a potential shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market, but we’re not quite there yet,’ Agran said. ‘It’s too early to call.’”

“Brian Pearl, an agent for Lang in southern Palm Beach County, said he expects active selling seasons, though rising interest rates are hurting the purchasing power for some first-time buyers. ‘It’s definitely slowed down a bit,’ Pearl said. ‘It doesn’t feel as much of a gold rush as it did two years ago.’”

The Washington Post. “Anyone who’s been house hunting in one of the Washington area’s hot neighborhoods would dispute this, but according to Zillow’s recent research into the top buyers’ and sellers’ markets across the country, the D.C. region is Number 10 on the Top 10 list of buyers’ markets. In a buyers’ market, properties tend to stay on the market longer and sellers are more likely to need to cut their asking price to attract a purchaser.”

“Among the jurisdictions Zillow identified as buyers’ markets in this region are Huntingtown, Chesapeake Beach, Indian Head, Bowie and District Heights — all in Maryland. Zillow identified Centreville, Franconia, Alexandria, Purcellville and Sterling, all in Virginia, as the top five sellers’ markets in D.C. area.”

From Crain’s Chicago Business in Illinois. “The list of high-end homes for sale in Lincoln Park just keeps getting longer, and the result, inevitably, is that prices are going lower. In February, sellers put 69 luxury houses on the market in Lincoln Park, more than during any month in the past two years, according to a report compiled by Niko Apostal, a Keller Williams broker. The new listings brought the total to 183, also a two-year high. At the same time, ’sales have remained steady,’ Apostal said, which leaves a disproportionate number of homes unsold as inventory swells.”

“The result: ‘prices are coming down,’ he said. ‘It’s natural.’ Lincoln Park homes that went under contract in February had a median asking price of just under $1.5 million, or almost 20 percent below the year-earlier figure, about $1.85 million. Their final sale prices will not be known until the transactions close. In January, closed sale prices on Lincoln Park houses were down almost 14 percent from January 2016, according to data released last month by the Chicago Association of Realtors.”

“A handsome house for sale on Montana Street recently took a price cut to below the $2.1 million that its sellers paid for the place in 2007. Listed since June at $2.1 million, it’s now asking just under $1.94 million. ‘It was time to talk turkey,’ said Jeff Lowe, the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices KoenigRubloff Realty Group agent who represents the house at its new price. (It was previously with a different agent.) Lowe says he told the seller, ‘if you want to get it sold, you have to react to the market. The over-supply is definitely telling people to make their prices more realistic.’”

“Lincoln Park isn’t the only place where luxury homes have been lingering; the market witnessed a pronounced slowdown beginning last summer. Lakeview and Lincoln Square both have too many high-end homes for sale, too.”




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133 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-15 17:42:21

This article is a subscription:

‘Realtor: Foreclosures are ‘dramatically up’ in Houston’

Mar 13, 2017

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Young Deezy
2017-03-16 07:50:14

Interesting anecdote: at a large automall near me, it appears the dealers have rented out some nearby parking lots to store excess inventory. Row after row of new cars sit unsold, most of them appearing to be GM products. I wonder if this is a repeat of the channel stuffing that occurred wrt the auto industry following the meltdown in 2008.

The automall is the one in Roseville, CA if anyone’s interested.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 08:43:30

I remember when the Ford dealer in town had to park excess inventory across the street in a rented lot.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-16 08:47:45

Are they new cars?

I recall visiting an auto dealership that was running into space problems, but it was related to a massive number of people servicing cars (row after row, after row of cars were to be serviced).

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 08:55:02

The ones at the Ford dealer overflow lot were all shiny, brand spanking new pickup trucks, IIRC.

 
 
Comment by Jingle Male
2017-03-16 09:49:34

If you are referring to the long narrow parcel under the power lines beging the theaters, that is owned by Sullivan Auto Group. They ran out of room to store inventory at the auto mall and have been storing cars & trucks there for years.

No worries about sales in this area……yet.

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Comment by Young Deezy
2017-03-17 07:42:58

Way late reply, but no that’s not it.

 
 
Comment by SW
2017-03-16 10:24:42

GM dealer near me is utilizing a dirt lot next to the dealership to park excess new trucks.

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Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-16 08:52:45

awaiting a 96 month no down loan scheme
trump is walking into several bubble pops simultaneously
cre-re-auto-Liberal arts degrees

Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-16 10:22:24

The economy is strong in Calif. High school grads are doing well too.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-16 10:35:31

Yeah, that’s why you pay taxi drivers sub-minimum wages and think it’s great.

Example

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-16 10:59:38

‘Welcome to the Affluent Central Coast, California’s Child Poverty Capital’

 
Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-16 11:12:04

Film Festival this week, no worries. On 78 degrees today.

Feel free to donate extra dollars to taxi drivers, I just pay what they ask for. Uber = not my monkeys, not my circus.

Namaste.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-16 11:14:49

I don’t take taxi’s. I have a vehicle.

 
Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-16 11:18:36

If ya need a social safety net, ocean-close, wine country should not be your first choice. You make the bed you sleep in.

Try Aspen. ;)

 
Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-16 11:23:11

Do you enjoy a good drink? Get it?

Taxi $9, DUI $8000. Moneywise.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-16 11:25:37

I never drink and drive.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 11:40:12

Feel free to donate extra dollars to taxi drivers, I just pay what they ask for. Uber = not my monkeys, not my circus.

If that works for you, fine. But it does contradict your narrative that “high school grads are doing well too”. I’m sure they’re all making six figures and can afford the rent.

 
Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-16 11:41:34

How does the author manage to avoid mentioning transient farm workers and college students on the central coast?

just sour grapes.

 
Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-16 12:03:43

HS grads: doing well might be a plumber’s apprentice at $20 an hr. You dont need 6 figs to “do well.”

 
Comment by cactus
2017-03-16 12:45:08

It’s a cruel irony that many of the coastal California cities and counties that have imposed tight restrictions on new housing and development also are home to levels of poverty that don’t get enough attention. Such communities should be aggressively challenged. Their NIMBYism, rationalized as It’s a cruel irony that many of the coastal California cities and counties that have imposed tight restrictions on new housing and development also are home to levels of poverty that don’t get enough attention. Such communities should be aggressively challenged. Their NIMBYism, rationalized as “preserving community character,” is actually making people poorer. is actually making people poorer.”

Rich liberal’s on the central coast in cities like Santa Barbara haven’t figured out how to get middle class to pay for their maids.

Their NIMBYism, rationalized as “preserving community character,” is actually making people poorer.”

some people poorer, it makes home owners richer.

 
Comment by cactus
2017-03-16 12:55:05

just sour grapes.

Chinese don’t seem to have a problem moving here ? I wonder when they are the majority will they be more inclined to help the working poor more than the NIMBY people ?

Why doesn’t the author do a article on Irvine CA? Central Coast because its still rich white people ?

Its all changing and fast now.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 13:02:38

You dont need 6 figs to “do well.”

$20/hr is a poverty wage anywhere on the California coast.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-16 13:04:10

Such communities should be aggressively challenged. Their NIMBYism, rationalized as “preserving community character,” is actually making people poorer. is actually making people poorer.”

On the other hand, they’re controlling their own communities. Another option could involve the state or federal government forcing them to build more.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-03-16 13:25:43

Chinese don’t seem to have a problem moving here ? I wonder when they are the majority will they be more inclined to help the working poor more than the NIMBY people ?

Hahah. Definitely a “devil take the hindmost” culture. But they do seem to tolerate the poor better. Not so much need to force them to live out of sight or in middle class approved housing. Which does help in its own way.

 
Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-16 13:38:34

Central Coast because its still rich white people ?

Lots of people are happy as can be on the CC working service jobs, mtn biking and surfing in their free time. Ya gotta be smart.

Not all rich people at all. Look it up.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-03-16 13:43:33

Just thinking about this a little more after I hit send. It hadn’t ever occurred to me before that many of those doing relatively well in America are at least slightly embarrassed about it…otherwise it wouldn’t be so important to them to manage their interactions with the poor so carefully, I think. There must be no poor visibly living in substandard housing anywhere in “their” neighborhood where they might feel even more uncomfortable. Hence the NIMBYism. Maybe it’s the Christian traditions of helping the poor? The pressure goes down if you can’t see any that need help?

China doesn’t seem to have those hangups. Those doing well are proud of it and not the least bit stressed by the presence of the poor all around them.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-16 13:50:03

There are also many negative stereotypes about the poor. They’re criminals. They have lots of children who do badly in school and require extra help. They’re bad neighbors because they’re loud and drink to excess and use illegal drugs.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-16 13:56:15

‘Not all rich people at all’

The poorest state in the US, yes, we know.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 14:22:12

Lots of people are happy as can be on the CC working service jobs, mtn biking and surfing in their free time.

And sharing a 2 bedroom apartment with 7 roommates.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-16 15:44:41

It hadn’t ever occurred to me before that many of those doing relatively well in America are at least slightly embarrassed about it.

There is a general taboo about talking about money and how much you are paid in the US….regardless of whether you are doing well, or less well.

I certainly didn’t grow up in a wealthy household (we grew our own food, took part in food co-ops to buy food in bulk, and then divide among the members of the co-op, always purchased used cars, hand-me-downs until the clothes disintegrated, very little in the way of eating out, etc.), but even then my parents answer to our question of “how much do you make” was always “enough”.

I don’t remember ever talking about how much, or how little, other families had, although it was obvious in many cases that some families lived in bigger, nicer, newer houses, drove new cars, which, given how different it was from where I grew up, was a source of curiosity. Usually it meant that the person owned their own business (caterer, feed store owner), or was a professional (doctor, attorney).

 
 
 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-16 09:05:49

Ports are backing up with record new inventory, subprime auto imploding and manufacturer incentives all over the place.

“Auto Loan Delinquency Rates Surge To Eight Year Highs”

http://economiccollapsenews.com/2017/02/17/study-auto-loan-delinquency-rates-surge-to-eight-year-highs/

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-15 17:50:35

Kenmore, WA Housing Market Tanks As Prices Crater 8% YoY

https://www.zillow.com/kenmore-wa-98028/home-values/

 
Comment by @AltFacts
2017-03-15 18:17:35

Rant on!

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-15 18:25:53

Even with today’s paltry .25% hike, the Fed is still way behind the curve as inflation and yields are both rising.

http://wolfstreet.com/2017/03/15/inflation-hits-consumers-mortgage-rates-take-off-financial-repression-for-bondholders-and-savers/

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-16 06:26:08

It looks like a repeat of the 1970s is underway.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-15 18:28:26

“Virginia Real Estate Index: Falling Prices Lead Boost In Real Estate Sentiment”

http://theroanokestar.com/2017/03/08/virginia-real-estate-index-falling-prices-lead-boost-in-real-estate-sentiment/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-16 06:22:43

Chinese investors also appear to be dumping their California real estate holdings right about now:

“In February, however, we saw a sudden spike in high-end listings, with the average home for sale in Folsom listed at $762,000. That is a huge difference from the month before, and we’re not sure why. It does raise some questions: Are the high-end home owners seeing or hearing something that tells them to sell now? Are owners of lower priced homes deciding to stay put? Are we at or near the top of the market? Or is this just a coincidental temporary spike?”

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-16 08:48:39

“Are we at or near the top of the market?”

If memory serves, sinking volume and rising median price signals the first stage of market meltdown.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-03-16 10:07:54

I have been too busy to post but this is about the local Chinese market. It will interesting to see whether this leads to more or less buying outside of China:

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/real-estate/China-vows-to-control-home-prices/shdaily.shtml

 
 
 
Comment by Jingle Male
2017-03-16 05:23:06

“In February, however, we saw a sudden spike in high-end listings, ……….. and we’re not sure why.”

There are many contributing factors. Folsom has a lot of large “McMansions”, 3,000 to 5,000 SF. While incomes are relatively steady, the cost of heating and cooling these boxes is rapidly rising. I looked at my PG&E bill last month and base prices rose from 11 cents/kWh to 15 cents/kWH. A $400/Mon utility bill just went to $550!

“……PG&E said that between December 2015 and December 2016, “a number” of approved rate increases resulted in residential rates increasing 21 percent. Rates increased 7 percent on Jan. 1, 2015, and then a further 13 percent on Aug. 1, with at least three rate increases for electricity happening in the last year alone.Feb 7, 2017″

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-16 06:30:17

China launches “Sky Net 2017″ to hunt down corrupt suspects abroad
Source: Xinhua 2017-03-08 21:53:50

BEIJING, March 8 (Xinhua) — China has launched operation “Sky Net 2017″ to hunt down corruption suspects who have fled abroad and recover their ill-gotten gains, authorities said in a meeting Tuesday.

The meeting was convened by the office for capturing suspects and recovering ill-gotten assets abroad under the central authority’s anti-graft coordinating group.

According to the meeting, the Supreme People’s Procuratorate (SPP) will take charge of the campaign to nab suspects in duty-related crimes and recover their assets.

Comment by Jingle Male
2017-03-16 09:52:20

I could point them to a few Chinese suspects who imported $ millions….Yet seem too stupid to get out of their own way.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 07:09:28

” looked at my PG&E bill last month and base prices rose from 11 cents/kWh to 15 cents/kWH. A $400/Mon utility bill just went to $550!”

My electric bill last month was $60. Our rate is a flat 9 cents/kwh, none of that baseline nonsense.

$550 is a car payment.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-16 07:14:36

Yeah, that would be some a payment for some sort of luxury car.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-16 08:50:43

I have electric heat and my average bill is $100.

 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-16 08:54:28

11cents in VA
12.5 in peoples republic of MD

 
Comment by ibbots
2017-03-16 09:46:06

We pay about .06 / kwh for 100% renewable. Our contract expires in June so I’ll shop around then.

 
 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-16 07:29:41

Comment by Jingle Male
2014-06-24 12:30:15

Mathguy….me thinks you don’t understand cash flow. Six months of cash flow just paidvfor my solar system. Now my electric bill will be $50…. Per year. So now there will be even more cash flow!

Your tall tales are endless.

Comment by Young Deezy
2017-03-16 07:52:22

Nah PG&E did just jack their rates, and the number of retards who have 3-digit utility bills in CA is truly astounding. He’s probably not lying.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 08:47:02

I have heard the same tales of car payment sized utility bills from my Santa Clara colleagues.

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Comment by cactus
2017-03-16 13:10:21

I have heard the same tales of car payment sized utility bills from my Santa Clara colleagues.”

Phoenix AZ in the summer which is 6 months long

 
Comment by rms
2017-03-16 18:15:43

“I have heard the same tales of car payment sized utility bills from my Santa Clara colleagues.”

Actually the Santa Clara (city) folks are lucky to have Hetch Hetchy hydro-power at less than half of what a San Jose resident, IIRC. SCDave?

 
 
Comment by oxide
2017-03-16 09:38:05

I thought everybody moved to CA for the perfect weather…

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 10:06:52

The thing is, once you exceed your teensy weensy baseline in CA, the price per kwh soars. You don’t even have to use that much juice to get a huge bill. Heaven help you if you turn on the A/C.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-16 12:50:50

I met a woman once who grew up in Orange County, CA but now lives in Nebraska. She said that houses are not well-insulated in California. So if you happen to get the occasional hot or cold weather, you end up using a lot of heat or AC.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 13:04:43

She said that houses are not well-insulated in California.

Definitely true for older homes in CA. I know this from first hand experience.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-03-16 13:28:00

I would say it’s true for the apartments too. I wondered why I was getting cold in January when it wasn’t that cold outside and realized my room has two outside walls and they were not insulated well…or maybe at all.

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-16 13:18:42

the number of retards who have 3-digit utility bills in CA is truly astounding

If it’s a combined bill for gas and electricity, a hundred bucks is not that much.

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Comment by Jingle Male
2017-03-16 09:55:42

No tall tales here. My utility bill is zero. I now “earn” 15 cents a kWh in credit. I am all set. You seem to be the one erroneously jumping to conclusions. I was pointing out PG&E rates, not MY utility bill.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-16 10:14:37

You’re not earning anything. You’ve wasted the energy usage up front and are now at the teat of the taxpayer.

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Comment by Jingle Male
2017-03-17 03:57:26

That seems like a strange way to look at my system’s power production. PV panels costing $12k ($8k after credits) generate $1,500/year in energy (now $2,000/year) for the next 25 years. That is a win for everyone.

 
 
 
 
Comment by rms
2017-03-16 07:56:01

“I looked at my PG&E bill last month and base prices rose from 11 cents/kWh to 15 cents/kWH. A $400/Mon utility bill just went to $550!”

I can only imagine what has happened to PG&E rates in the San Luis Obispo area, which were some of the highest in the state.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-16 09:55:37

Folsom, CA Real Estate & Homes for Sale

246 Homes

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Folsom_CA

Folsom, CA Price Reduced Homes for Sale

37 Homes

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Folsom_CA/shw-pr/show-price-reduced

Chosen at random:

109 Feather Falls Cir, Folsom, CA 95630

For Sale
$699,900
Price cut: -$25,000 (3/6)
Zestimate®: $758,099

03/06/17 Price change $699,900-3.4% $212.
11/18/15 Listing removed $685,000 $208 –
08/21/15 Price change $685,000-0.6% $208 –
07/29/15 Price change $689,000-1.4% $209 –
07/10/15 Price change $699,000-2.8% $212 –
07/02/15 Price change $719,000-1.1% $218 –
06/15/15 Listed for sale $727,000+1.0% $221
07/23/04 Sold $720,000+120% $218
08/16/96 Sold $327,000+309% $99
10/06/94 Sold $80,000 $24

Year Property taxes Change Tax assessment Change
Less
2015 $7,142 +15.4% $664,387 +2.0%
2014 $6,187 +12.9% $651,360 +18.0%
2013 $5,480 +0.3% $552,000 +15.0%
2012 $5,461 -2.1% $480,000 –
2011 $5,577 -0.3% $480,000 -4.0%
2010 $5,593 -33.2% $500,000 –
2009 $8,370 +2.0% $500,000 -34.6%
2008 $8,202 +4.2% $764,068 +2.0%

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/109-Feather-Falls-Cir-Folsom-CA-95630/26020388_zpid/

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-16 10:09:53

Depreciation on a shanty of that size (3300sq ft) is just short of $10k a year.

Ooooooph.

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Comment by azdude
2017-03-16 11:13:33

folsom is the poster child of the bubble. Lots of overpriced houses. I think intel employs half the town.

 
 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-16 11:54:40

the property taxes will kill the bubble faster than the 4.3 or even 4.5% 30 yr rate
taxes never go away

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Comment by Lurker
2017-03-16 13:16:10

“06/15/15 Listed for sale $727,000+1.0% $221
07/23/04 Sold $720,000+120% $218
08/16/96 Sold $327,000+309% $99
10/06/94 Sold $80,000 $24″

AWESOME. It’s been a while since we’ve had such a fun price history. And just think how much money the Fed, et al, have printed and thrown away just to keep that $720k price elevated for 11+ years and it’s still falling.

What the heck happened between 94 and 96? Was it a foreclosure holdover from S&L crisis? Family sale to relatives/divorce?

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Comment by junior_kai
2017-03-16 15:32:14

Maybe a lot with no house?

 
Comment by oxide
2017-03-16 16:17:53

Indeed it was. The house on it was 1995.

 
 
 
 
Comment by cactus
2017-03-16 13:08:21

carbon credit payment ?

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-16 05:45:15

Oh dear. Building permits plunged 6.2% in February, driven by - drum roll - a drop in multifamily housing.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-16/building-permits-plunge-most-11-months-amid-multi-family-slump

 
Comment by oxide
2017-03-16 05:59:18

Gooooglemappin’…

buyers’ markets in this region are Huntingtown, Chesapeake Beach, Indian Head, Bowie and District Heights — all in Maryland.

These are all either way out of commuting distance (Chesapeake Beach, really?) or are ‘hoods near Southeast DC, which is the DC equivalent of a no-go zone. There isn’t a huge amount of government activity in that area except maybe Andrews Air Force base. Most of the bread-and-butter agencies are to the immediate north of the DC, in Prince George’s County and Montgomery County.

Centreville, Franconia, Alexandria, Purcellville and Sterling, all in Virginia

Alexandria and Franconia are defense contractor central, near Fort Belvoir . Centreville and Sterling office sprawl (more contracting) near Dulles Airport. Purcellville I’m not sure. It’s a bedroom community.

I can see why Franconia is a seller’s market. It’s right near the Beltway, a mix of newer townhomes, 4/5-bed larger SFH, and run-down ranches with *ahem* “potential.” The inventory is very low. Past 3 years: 1400 SFH or townhomes sold. Listed now: 95, with 50 of them pending, almost all townhomes or 4/5-bed larger SFH. Very little pre-foreclosure shadow inventory.

Taxpayers, help me out with Franconia, which is closer to your ‘hood. Are older smaller SFH being snapped up down there? There doesn’t seem to be a single run-down ranch for sale.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-16 06:32:11

“…hoods near Southeast DC, which is the DC equivalent of a no-go zone.”

Someone got shot at a Metro station in that area during our visit to DC last spring.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-16 06:36:45

I’m wondering if this news might have any effect on DC housing demand?

Business
Trump budget expected to seek historic contraction of federal workforce
By Damian Paletta March 12

The cuts Trump plans to propose this week are also expected to lead to layoffs among federal workers, changes that would be felt sharply in the Washington area. According to an economic analysis by Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, the reductions outlined so far by Trump’s advisers would reduce employment in the region by 1.8 percent and personal income by 3.5 percent, and lower home prices by 1.9 percent.

“These are not the kind of cuts that you can accommodate by tightening the belt one notch, by shaving a little bit off of a program, or by downsizing a few staff here or there,” said Robert Reischauer, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office. “These are cuts that would require a wholesale triage of a vast array of federal activities.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-16 08:35:20

‘Shortly after crossing the Rio Grande into the gang-infested border city of Reynosa, dozens of Mexicans deported during U.S President Donald Trump’s first days in office said they would soon try to head north again - but this time to Canada.’

‘In a Reynosa migrant shelter, just yards from the U.S. border, 26-year-old Cenobio Rita said he had earned about $3,000 a month installing playgrounds in Richmond, Virginia, before he was deported on Feb. 15 after police found marijuana in his car.’

‘Having left Mexico as a 14-year-old, he fretted about returning to his violent home state of Michoacan. With Trump taking a tough stance on undocumented immigrants, he ruled out a common path for many deportees - back into the United States.’

“I want to go to Canada with my passport,” he said. “For those without documents, I think (the United States) is over. Now it’s Canada’s turn.”

I used to go to Reynosa all the time. It wasn’t gang infested then. Clean up your own backyard, Mexico.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 08:50:13

Every single Mexican border city is a crime infested cesspool.

On a related note, the State dept. issued another travel advisory for Mexico. Go there at your own risk.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-16 09:06:03

The article has an architect going back in 2015, gets freaked out by the crime and goes to serve food in Canada illegally. And another guy gets stopped by customs up there, they search his phone (racist bastard Canadians!), discover he’s not a tourist and immediately put him on a plane home. Now what’s wrong with this picture Rosie O’Donnell? The US is simply making baby steps to enforce laws very similar to Canada, your future nation, if they’ll take you. And isn’t the obvious best future that Mexico can be a better place to live?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 10:14:47

Illegals are going to be surprised when they learn that Canada, even under Trudeau’s watch, won’t coddle them they way they have been in the USA.

 
Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-16 11:26:17

Cabo just had some killings too. MEX is nasty. I wonder if the Mexicans in San Diego and other border towns will riot after the new wall is up and deportations are ramped up?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 11:47:10

San Diego has had a wall for decades.

If illegals riot, it will just turn public sentiment even more against them. And they won’t riot. They’re afraid of walking out their front door as it is.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-16 13:06:35

Every single Mexican border city is a crime infested cesspool.

A lot of Fox News viewers think that the same could be said of every single American city as well.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-16 13:09:47

The big new development around San Diego will be illegal immigration using boats.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-03-16 13:35:57

A lot of Fox News viewers think that the same could be said of every single American city as well.

Yes, I grew up with them. Two factors: One, they are talking about something they have probably never seen themselves but only heard about through scary headlines. Two, most of them are old enough to think it’s still a 70s Charles Bronson movie in NYC and anywhere else with more than six figures worth of people per county.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-16 13:41:27

Yeah, then there were TV shows like Kojak and Baretta. A lot of these people travel into a big city once a year to go to a major league ballgame or something. They see homeless alcoholics begging for spare change and that confirms their beliefs about the big city.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 14:19:39

A lot of Fox News viewers think that the same could be said of every single American city as well.

Not even close.

The big new development around San Diego will be illegal immigration using boats.

It’s been tried already. The truth is that it is hard to cross the border near San Diego, which is why most border crossings are east in the desert.

 
Comment by junior_kai
2017-03-16 15:43:33

As usual, mightymike has zero clue. Boats are used - and not often from what I can tell - to smuggle drugs, not people across the border. Its really easy to pick them up with modern tech, and every so often a surfer or beach person will find some bundles washed up in SD. I think back during prohibition they used to smuggle alcohol into the US via the Coronado islands, via a spot called smugglers cove, iirc. But keep talking about stuff you know nothing about, we dont expect anything less.

And Canada is far more strict with respect to immigration. Even a minor drug charge will get you barred. Fat Rosie’s chance of getting in is about as likely as a donut in her fridge going uneaten.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-16 16:48:25

I specifically referred to the future. Nevertheless, if boats can be used to smuggle liquor, it should be perfectly possible to smuggle people with boats.

I read about this a few years ago. I’ve got the facts. You’re confused.

California: Immigrants Captured After Boat Capsizes

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
JULY 12, 2011

More than a dozen people suspected of being illegal immigrants were captured Tuesday near Newport Beach, Calif., after a smuggling boat capsized in rough surf. The boat was spotted landing at Crystal Cove State Park in Orange County at 5 a.m. Tuesday, said a federal immigration spokeswoman, Virginia Kice. The boat capsized, but all 15 people aboard made it to the beach. Ms. Kice said federal agents captured 14 while one other escaped. The capture followed the weekend rescue of 15 people suspected of being illegal immigrants stranded on Santa Cruz Island in the Channel Islands northwest of Los Angeles. Ten others were detained in the Malibu area last month. The authorities say smugglers have been turning to sea routes from Mexico into the United States because of increased vigilance on land.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/13/us/13brfs-IMMIGRANTSCA_BRF.html

 
Comment by junior_kai
2017-03-16 18:47:22

As usual, you havent a clue, nor any grasp of logic. If it was effective (cost and otherwise) they would have been doing it already on a mass scale. The incentives for illegals to come are already in rapid decline, wall or not. One could make a case that more boats will be used going forward to smuggle drugs, but you didnt make that case and instead chose to flail over a failed theory. You might want to look into getting an MRI.

 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-16 19:07:58

:mrgreen:

 
 
 
 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-16 06:38:49

there’s many Virginia Ramblers w no basement=cold feet
the schools over there sck
Some new inventory mixed in ,but life is better in 22151

sellers market” is pre human tornado
DC may have it’s first recession.

 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-16 06:40:07

my call for 2017 is N VA down 1% and close in MD down 2%

 
Comment by Jessica
2017-03-16 07:54:55

Sterling - the nice part - is currently experiencing bidding wars. Went to a few open houses and the brokers were “accepting multiple offers this evening” with some buyers trying to put together offers on the spot.

This area is close to major roads - dulles toll road, Rt 7 - and 66 can be completely avoided. It is also not invaded by you know whats yet.

Prices are relatively affordable for garage townhomes - and it is not in crazy FFX county.

Thought Trump’s federal reduction would impact the area - but it seems to have had just the opposite. Insanity.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 08:52:19

Thought Trump’s federal reduction would impact the area - but it seems to have had just the opposite. Insanity.

Probably because everyone is expecting some federal judge to use a court order to stop the .gov layoffs.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-16 09:22:31

I think it’s because everyone is going to hire lobbyists to fight the changes.

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 10:23:18

That too.

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-16 12:55:56

There’s a lot of defense industry in the suburbs outside of DC. The increase in war spending will make up for any cuts to EPA and PBS. And the cuts to meals on wheels will be spread around the country.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-16 08:55:46

‘currently experiencing bidding wars’

Like a weather phenomenon, or the flu.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-16 09:08:58

It’s Donkisms and Tall Tales abound lately.

Sterling, VA Housing Prices Crater 22% YoY

http://www.movoto.com/va/20166/market-trends/

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Comment by Jessica
2017-03-16 11:53:00

The area I wrote about is 20165 - Sterling is vastly different depending on zip code.

Again, bidding wars in the winter market. Very strange.

 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-16 11:56:21

the real estate buying season starts w pres day weekend in the se

 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-16 12:26:20

That and a dollar will get you a cup of coffee.

 
Comment by Jessica
2017-03-16 14:20:02

No the buying season typically hasn’t heated up in NOVA until april or May. Bidding wars in Feb/Mar is highly unusual. Have been watching the market closely for 2 years.

What are you basing your info on?

 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-16 14:30:21

And one free refill.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-16 06:35:57

“Scott Agran, president of Lang Realty in Boca Raton, isn’t quite sure which way the South Florida housing market is headed.

dude

 
Comment by Larry Littlefield
2017-03-16 06:39:35

Think about Chicago and Illinois. Anyone who lives there is inheriting massive costs from Generation Greed that will diminish their quality of life and standard of living for decades in the future.

For decades in the past these areas enjoyed lots of services with a state and local government tax burden that was below the U.S. average as a share of personal income. But now taxes are soaring and spending is being slashed as a result of past debts, unfunded and retroactively enhanced pensions, and inadequate infrastructure investment.

There is one chance and one chance only for younger generations to take back that ripoff. DON”T BUY until the price you pay is so low that those retirees slinking off to Arizona truly feel the pain. Don’t BUY until every disadvantage you get in your tax burden, private schools, etc. is offset by lower housing costs.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-16 06:54:19

Yep. Houses as large illiquid assets are low-hanging fruit for the taxman.

 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-16 07:10:14

no worries as younger gen votes dem
= more for older folks

Comment by Larry Littlefield
2017-03-16 09:34:33

Retirement income is exempt from state and local income taxes in Illinois. I think it’s pretty bi-partisan.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-16 07:02:27

MSM headline: “Mortgage rates jump as economy heats up.”

Riddle me this, HBBers: If the economy is heating up, why are debt delinquencies rising so quickly, and why are most indicators of the REAL economy trending downward?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-jump-as-economy-revs-up-2017-03-16

Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-16 12:58:10

The answer must be that your assumption is false, or else that you’ve got a confused view of the real economy.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-16 13:05:41

Data my good friend….

Williamsburg Brooklyn Rental Rates Crater 8% YoY

https://www.zillow.com/williamsburg-new-york-ny/home-values/

Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-16 13:33:42

That’s more great news for the economy!

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Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-16 13:57:46

Exactly.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by azdude
2017-03-16 07:07:09

I highly suggest some downside insurance.

Comment by rms
2017-03-16 08:19:29

Can you see elephant?
http://picpaste.com/elephant.jpg

Comment by azdude
2017-03-16 11:17:06

nice

what happened to the volitility in the stock market?

 
 
 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-16 07:13:42

“the D.C. region is Number 10 on the Top 10 list of buyers’ markets. In a buyers’ market, properties tend to stay on the market longer and sellers are more likely to need to cut their asking price to attract a purchaser.”

Get to slashin’…… and be quick about it.

Purcellville, VA Housing Prices Crater 5% YoY As DC Area Tanks

https://www.zillow.com/purcellville-va/home-values/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-16 09:26:56

‘South Carolina’s looming pension crisis’

‘While Hitchcock and his staff search for a solution, ultimately, it’s up to taxpayers to make up the difference and close the pension funding gap, because they underwrite the costs of government. Modestly paid state, school district and local government employees have also felt the pinch, as they have been required to contribute more and more each year.’

‘For someone with a $40,000 salary, about average for a state employee, required pay deductions to the main pension fund now consume more than a month’s pay each year.’

‘Michelle Nichols, who teaches math and science at Moultrie Middle School in Mount Pleasant, said there’s a feeling of helplessness among workers covered by the plans. “It’s kind of like with health insurance — what can we really do about it?” she said. “A lot of times people work (second jobs) during the school year, like waitressing. I tutor.”

The Federal Reserve was not harmed in the writing of this article.

Comment by Larry Littlefield
2017-03-16 09:37:21

The only issue in public employee pension is the division of the guilt between public employee unions, who got well-funded and already generous public employee pensions retroactively increased (as in New York and California) and past taxpayers who failed to fund the pensions public employee had been promised to begin with (as in South Carolina).

And the division of the pain between future public employees, taxpayers and public service recipients.

Looked at another way, however, it’s all about Generation Greed.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 10:31:07

‘For someone with a $40,000 salary, about average for a state employee, required pay deductions to the main pension fund now consume more than a month’s pay each year.’

$40,000 /12 = $3333

If that is all I saved, I would be looking forward to living beneath and overpass and eating cat food for retirement. Sounds to me like they’re still getting a good deal … of course that assumes their pension plan remains solvent.

Comment by Larry Littlefield
2017-03-16 10:50:48

The deal with public pensions is either the public employees didn’t put in, or the taxpayer didn’t put in. And none are truly solvent except for DC.

Why DC? Former Mayor Marion Barry. After he got caught with a hooker and a crack pike, DC was put under a financial control board for the 20 years that Generation Greed was in charge. Thus no pension increases or underfunding.

 
 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-16 12:53:59

in my county they can retire at age 55. If you buy a rational annuity that pays out equal to a teacher’s pension it’s 1.2 million up front
not bad for a 3/4 time job

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-16 10:52:47

A UHS from Zimbabwe just posted a comment a few threads back. He left this link:

“As property prices rise in Zimbabwe, some exasperated home seekers have accused estate agents of price fixing. This however, is farfetched because even the central government with all its unrivalled might in virtually every sphere of life has failed to do this. Estate agents are even smaller and minute economic entities who lack meaningful stamina to achieve this. In this presentation I have given some reasons why many find the going tough with regards to property prices and have offered some advice that is both practical and helpful.”

http://propertymattersnews.blogspot.com/2013/05/some-reasons-why-your-money-cant-buy.html

A photo:

Example

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-16 10:58:22

Is that CA right now or 5 years ago?

Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-16 11:21:47

We know it is not your hometown of Buffalo, NY.

got ice?

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-16 11:28:00

Data my good friend data.

Falls Church County, VA Housing Prices Crater 10% YoY

https://www.zillow.com/falls-church-city-county-va/home-values/

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-16 11:42:22

Is that CA right now or 5 years ago?

Given that people in the bay area are renting converted garages to live in, I would say “now”.

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-16 11:06:53

Ashland, OR Housing Prices Plunge 10% YoY As Housing Demand Craters 27% Statewide

https://www.zillow.com/ashland-or/home-values/

 
Comment by rj not in chicago anymore
2017-03-16 12:04:57

From Crain’s Chicago Business in Illinois. “The list of high-end homes for sale in Lincoln Park just keeps getting longer, and the result, inevitably, is that prices are going lower. In February, sellers put 69 luxury houses on the market in Lincoln Park, more than during any month in the past two years, according to a report compiled by Niko Apostal, a Keller Williams broker. The new listings brought the total to 183, also a two-year high. At the same time, ’sales have remained steady,’ Apostal said, which leaves a disproportionate number of homes unsold as inventory swells.”

Seems the natives are gettin out while the gettin is still good.
Larry L above noted something to the extent that with increasing taxes relative to falling prices don’t buy til those budget line items meet.

Problem is this…..https://mishtalk.com/2017/03/14/illinois-general-assembly-retirement-system-only-13-percent-funded/

ILL ANNOY is circling the drain. Bond ratings drop - interest on bonds continues to increase and more and more folks throw up their hands and leave.

So glad to be outta there.

 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-16 14:47:14

Midtown Manhattan Rental Rates Crater 10% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/midtown-new-york-ny/home-values/

 
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