March 17, 2017

There’s A Reason That Fantasy Isn’t Reality

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “The Trump administration’s budget plan for 2018 includes cuts to federal agencies that are so large, some economists say it would drive down federal employment and make a noticeable dent in housing prices in Washington, DC, Virginia and Maryland. But President Trump’s budget director, Mick Mulvaney, told reporters that the budget wasn’t written to help prop up DC-area housing prices that have been the envy of other parts of the country for decades. ‘I can assure you that we did not write this budget with an eye toward what it would do to the value of your condo,’ he said.”

“Central Texas home sales retreated in February, with sales increasing less than 1 percent year-over-year, the latest figures show. ‘We’ve started off to what looks like will be another strong market, though not as insanely robust as years past,’ said Austin broker Eric Bramlett. ‘The result is a healthy market that’s appreciating at a normal 5 percent to 7 percent rate. Comparative to years past, this feels like a slowdown, but we’re really seeing a return to normal price appreciation that a world-class city like Austin tends to take for granted.’”

“David and Diane Charlton own the kind of home others fantasize about: a European-influenced country estate set back from major roads. A sprawling 34 acres surrounded by protected Chester County land. Yet there’s a reason that fantasy isn’t reality. Despite the amenities, the land, and a strong school district, the house can’t seem to sell. The slowdown has spelled trouble for iconic, sprawling estates. In Gladwyne, the famed Linden Hill has been on the market since 2013. But it was listed at $24.5 million four years ago. And on the market it has sat. Over time, the price has been slashed by nearly $8 million.”

“‘Linden Hill is an absolute treasure,’ said Lisa Yakulis, the Kurfiss Sotheby’s agent for the property. ‘It’s just harder to find that buyer.’”

“Miami’s luxury condo market may be soft, but it’s not quite at the point where investors are scrambling to pick up property at big discounts. Real opportunity in Miami will come ‘when the weak start yelling uncle,’ New York-based developer Richard LeFrak told Bloomberg.”

“Investors are buying fewer apartments in Israel and selling more of them, according to a report by the Finance Ministry. Sales were particularly noticeable among investors who owned three or more properties, the report said. The figures coincide with an article in the latest issue of the Economist magazine, which said that property prices in Israel soared by 82.1% between 2006 and 2016 in inflation-adjusted terms, representing the biggest increase in the world second only to Hong Kong.”

“Chinese businesses went on a global shopping frenzy last year, buying assets ranging from property to entertainment studios worth hundreds of billions of dollars. This year, however, foreign executives are unlikely to see Chinese buyers lining up at their doors. Outbound investments and projects are being called off as Beijing’s recent restrictions make it increasingly hard to transfer funds overseas.”

“Chinese companies are taking a hit. The latest involves real estate developer Country Garden, which has closed showrooms in China for its flagship $40 billion Forest City housing project in Malaysia. ‘Some people [invested offshore] blindly and were in a rush to do so,’ said Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan. ‘Some of this outbound investment was not in line with our own policies and had no real gain for China.’”

“Confidence in the housing market has collapsed, with the number of Australians describing property as the wisest place to put their savings falling to its lowest level in more than 40 years. As recently as September 2015 more than 28 per cent of those surveyed nominated real estate as the safest place for savings - more than any other asset class. Confidence has fallen near-continuously since then to an all time low of 11.6 per cent in the latest survey.”

“Assistant Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock on the prospect of a big downturn in prices: Hopefully households and banks ‘can withstand that sort of thing if it happened.’ ‘We are watching it because investors can be the first ones to get out if things turn down,’ she said, warning that a rush for the doors could make a slump ‘much bigger than it would otherwise be.’ Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show investors now account for more than half of money borrowed for housing, making the market vulnerable to a sell-off should prices begin to turn down.”

“Two big banks are waving red flags about Toronto housing prices, calling them ’simply unsustainable’ and a ‘bubble’ in separate reports. The Canadian Real Estate Association said this week that average house prices across the Greater Toronto Area hit $727,300 in February, a figure that has risen by more than 23 per cent in the past year. The group said hot activity in and around Canada’s largest city is ‘without precedent.’”

“Doug Porter expanded on that notion with some hard numbers to show just how ‘other worldly’ prices have become. Porter tells the story of a hypothetical couple: successful young high-earners looking to start climbing the property ladder. Factoring in the cost of that mortgage insurance and estimating basic costs such as utilities and property taxes, Porter tabulates that the Dorights could afford a house of just over $987,000. The Dorights exemplify a sobering reality: even people near the top one per cent of all income earners in Canada ‘are at best able to afford a semi-detached home on the fringes of Toronto, or maybe a low-end detached home verging on teardown status,’ Porter said. ‘Now just imagine the predicament a more typical couple of more modest means faces in the current market environment.’”

“If you were looking for an apartment in the Bay Area 18 months ago, realtors recommended you took your checkbook to viewings and were prepared to fork out for the deposit and first month’s rent – that’s $8,000 to $10,000 for a two-bedroom place in San Francisco – on the spot. Today, rents are still expensive, but the market has plateaued after years of painful increases. It’s part of a broader trend in the Bay Area: Silicon Valley’s technology bubble has had some of its wind knocked out – not bursting, but fizzling – with VCs making fewer investments, startup valuations falling, and recruitment slowing.”

“‘We’re starting to get a lot of résumés from [software engineers at] companies where the business model isn’t working and they can’t get funding, so they are closing down or cutting back,’ said Mark Dinan, a software recruiter based in the Bay Area, who keeps track of companies’ hirings and firings. ‘Silicon Valley has not had a major success in terms of IPO before Snap for years – and Snap is in LA.’”

“How does this moment compare to the time leading up to the dotcom crash? ‘I got here in 97 and it was like it is now – incredibly packed, impossible to commute, high apartment costs,’ Dinan said. ‘We’re seeing over-valued companies, funded based on hopes and dreams and aspirations and not good business models. Companies counting users and eyeballs rather than profits. There are a lot of similarities.’”

“‘The [dotcom crash] happened very suddenly and without any warning,’ said Aswath Damodaran, a professor of finance at the Stern School of Business. ‘When it does happen everyone says they saw it coming. If you saw it coming then why didn’t you get out of it?’”




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117 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-17 10:01:52

‘We’ve started off to what looks like will be another strong market, though not as insanely robust as years past,’ said Austin broker Eric Bramlett. ‘The result is a healthy market that’s appreciating at a normal 5 percent to 7 percent rate. Comparative to years past, this feels like a slowdown, but we’re really seeing a return to normal price appreciation that a world-class city like Austin tends to take for granted.’

Here’s the thing Eric: house prices didn’t rise like this for 600 years. I realize you are clueless, the government is clueless, the central bank too. There are a bunch of people who read this blog everyday who are clueless. But that doesn’t change the fact that this situation should have been stopped a long time ago.

Comment by Lesser Fool
2017-03-17 11:16:01

To be fair, population didn’t rise like this for 600 years. Look at the population growth curve.

 
Comment by 2banana
2017-03-17 11:17:04

I remember, from reading book a while ago, about a person who bought a house in Germany for single gold coin at the height of hyperinflation in the 1920s….

That was normal too.

Until it wasn’t.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-17 18:31:51

The country as a whole ended up hating those people who had some gold. They were mostly one ethnicity. It didn’t end well for many of them.

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-17 10:03:32

Bonita Springs, FL Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY

https://www.zillow.com/bonita-springs-fl/home-values/

 
Comment by sb
2017-03-17 10:08:16

‘The result is a healthy market that’s appreciating at a normal 5 percent to 7 percent rate.’

Since when in the hell is that normal?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-03-17 10:15:33

It is not normal unless you have negative interest rates and too much money splashing around looking for a home. Pun intended.

Comment by cactus
2017-03-17 12:23:01

Deflation in a fiat money world , how likely is this ?

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-17 12:40:52

There is only one example that I’m aware of…Japan.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-17 12:56:09

‘how likely is this’

Given the history, almost certain. Oil is a good example: QE causes 100 years of concrete to be poured in 3. A global commodity boom ensues, then crashes from oversupply and China falling in. But what happens? Lo and behold, frackers can get cheap loans! They hold on, become much more efficient and down it goes again.

Look at food, solar panels, housing, all in oversupply and/or idle. The defaulted student housing yesterday: 600 empty beds and more are being built as I type. In a rational world, they wouldn’t be funded. In a loosey goosey, ZIRP/QE world, lenders have been lining up. Now how much demand will come from the households that lose their pensions from the CRE bust?

The biggest economic revelation in modern history has been that money creation results in deflation. I’d say that’s because of globalization primarily. No matter how much this or that bubbles, wages won’t stay higher for long if at all. It’s important to remember that people waving $10k at an apartment is a blip in time.

‘If you were looking for an apartment in the Bay Area 18 months ago, realtors recommended you took your checkbook to viewings and were prepared to fork out for the deposit and first month’s rent’

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Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-17 14:18:54

Given history, deflation is almost certain to NOT occur.

Economic cycles occurred when we were on the gold standard too–including poor lending standards, and mal-investment. Overbuilding occurred then also.

Deflation following inflation was as predictable as the sun rising…when we were on the gold standard.

After we went to fiat money…we print, print, print to cushion the “bust”. And since then there has only been one example of deflation for countries who control their own currency…Japan.

In John Mauldin’s book, Endgame, he charts a price index in the US going back to the mid-1600’s. There is inflation AND deflation for more nearly 300 years…and then we get to the mid-1900’s…and then deflation disappears from the economic cycle.

 
Comment by Mike
2017-03-17 18:16:56

That is one succinct piece about how too much money ends up in oversupply and deflation. Of course, if the money were used for direct monetization, such as in Weimar, the outcome is a bit different…

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-17 18:36:11

RW, this isn’t your Daddy’s economic cycle.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-17 18:56:46

‘if the money were used for direct monetization, such as in Weimar, the outcome is a bit different’

It doesn’t stay in one system. So it bounces around from bubble to bubble. And globalization ensures a wage race to the bottom. If jobs stop flowing to the lowest priced environment, this process would probably end.

 
Comment by cactus
2017-03-17 20:44:55

The biggest economic revelation in modern history has been that money creation results in deflation. I’d say that’s because of globalization primarily. No matter how much this or that bubbles, wages won’t stay higher for long if at all. It’s important to remember that people waving $10k at an apartment is a blip in time.”

I have to think about this- globalization defeats fiat money printing efforts. More borrowed money in the hands of Americans just goes to China if its used to buy manufactured goods.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-17 10:51:57

It’s only normal on a way up to a peak, before the decline.

IMHO, what matters is “real” increases in home prices, not nominal.

If we are talking about about 5% nominal increases (approximately what Case Shiller shows) compared to what was 10% prior to the last bubble bursting, you are talking about 3% annual real increases today (with 2% inflation), vs. 7% previously (with approximately 3% inflation then).

I saw an interesting statistic yesterday from the “Billion Prices Project”, which scrapes prices from the internet on a daily basis. It gives a more “real time” view of CPI…significantly correlated with the US CPI data, but a leading the US CPI. The indicator that I saw was price increases well above 2% (I think even approaching 3.5%) as of the end of February. If that’s the case, then 5% nominal increases might even look more tame on a “real” basis.

My perspective on where we are (and you may disagree with one or more of the points below):

1. We are at real national prices level BELOW the prior peak. HOWEVER, we are above a national price level that would be considered a peak relative to previous cycles. I consider the last cycle abnormal…so, we are definitely at a point where prices are too high, and historically would have represented a peak.

2. We are also at a point where prices are still rising too fast…although not as fast as they were during the last abnormal cycle–and if inflation is actually running at 3.5%, not 2%, might even be closer to “normal” than we all think.

3. Despite plenty of articles showing we have overbuilt luxury apartments, we are generally still building less than a “normal” number of housing units.

I am NOT a seller of the home in which I live, because I live there, I expect to live there for at least the next 15-20 years, and am not worried about being able to pay off my mortgage, even if my home value were to fall precipitously.

I AM a seller of homes in which I’ve invested, because while prices might go higher for a while, values are stretched.

That said, the combination of the three points above means that we might be at this peak for a bit longer than prior cycles…but I am NOT saying that we are at a “permanently high plateau”, just that we might not see a significant correction imminently, and broadly.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-17 11:31:55

‘we might not see a significant correction imminently, and broadly’

= please take these overpriced shacks off my hands.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-17 12:16:45

Contrast that with another statement I made:

we are definitely at a point where prices are too high

= if I were you, I wouldn’t buy right now.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-17 16:41:33

‘I wouldn’t buy right now’

One sign of deflation is consumers postpone purchases believing prices will be lower in the future.

 
Comment by Get Stucco
2017-03-18 07:25:22

We postponed a home purchase in San Diego for over a decade and running to avoid getting stucco.

However, had I seen the Fed housing price put coming, I might have played a different strategy. It is still too early to tell whether the effects of the Fed’s housing price reflation program are temporary or permanent.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-17 16:15:57

I smell fear.

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Comment by cactus
2017-03-17 12:28:47

Sell houses and buy what? paper cash and wait for a deflation?

I’m just wondering everything’s a trade to a investor. One asset for another.

Now my dad likes cash and bonds and has made a stellar 2% a year for the last 10 years. because he’s scared I guess or just ignorant of what 2% a year really means ? Hard to say.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-17 12:42:10

What’s the problem with that? He’s fortunate he didn’t buy a house. He would have lost his shirt by now. Cash will never go to zero. Stocks can and do go to zero. Houses go negative.

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Comment by cactus
2017-03-17 20:32:00

yea hes Ok but I’m getting 6% with a 15% cash, 60% stocks and 25% bonds. Different kind of risk

 
Comment by oxide
2017-03-18 04:53:15
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-17 12:47:03

If you live in the home…why ever sell? Sell if you want to go from one place to another, but IMHO, transaction costs are so high that it’s foolish to sell and then sit on cash.

If you own the home as an investment, you would only sell if you firmly believe there is going to be a crash, or you can move the capital to another asset that will generate a larger return.

As an example, in Southern CA, homes are selling at prices that imply a 4% yield on price. If you owned a rental home in that market, you might sell it, and trade into an industrial property that might generate at 6% or 7% return on cost.

You would only go to cash if you felt that cash, shrinking at 1% on a real basis (2% inflation, maybe a 1% return) is better than any alternative that you can find.

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Comment by cactus
2017-03-17 20:29:46

but IMHO, transaction costs are so high that it’s foolish to sell and then sit on cash.”

yea thats true unless you really thought deflation would sink home prices like ~2006

I don’t yet

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-17 11:13:12

Indeed an oddity considering housing is a depreciating asset that
costs​ you money every day your own it.

Bellevue, WA Housing Demand Craters 20% YoY

http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/City/City_Turnover_AllHomes.csv

 
Comment by Get Stucco
2017-03-18 07:44:27

It seems like forever since the smart strategy in California was to leverage as much as possible to buy as much house or as many houses as possible in order to sit back and wait for future price appreciation to make you rich.

For how long can a simple-minded leverage-buy-hold strategy remain effective before it blows up?

 
 
Comment by Avg Joe
2017-03-17 10:37:45

‘Silicon Valley has not had a major success in terms of IPO before Snap for years – and Snap is in LA.’

Uh, and Snap isn’t even a “major success”. Since when do major successes plunge by 30%+ in their first week?

And BTW, I’m really tired of people calling non-tech companies “tech stocks”. Snap is *not* a tech stock.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-17 10:55:23

It’s only a major success for Silicon Valley for the handful of VC partners that live in SV and were significantly invested in Snap, AND able to get out (which I think were relatively few, if any).

Comment by 2banana
2017-03-17 11:13:39

Isn’t there a 6 month hold rule?

Comment by Crow Breath
2017-03-17 12:02:12

Yes. I’ve been through two IPOs, and both times there was a 6 month lockup period for the rank + file employees, but not for the execs or the VCs, of course. They want to to minimize the number of sellers competing with them, to try to avoid cratering the price too much.

There is no “tech” at Snap, it’s obviously a pure money dump. That’s why they are supposedly charging 30% to borrow the shares to short it, or something.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-17 12:10:19

I don’t know if it’s as much a rule as it is a market convention.

I seem to recall a kerfuffle when Google went public where an investor was forced to sell more in the IPO than they wanted.

I think some investors DO sell in the IPO. I think others are forced by the market to wait some period of time after the IPO.

Anyone have clarity on this?

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Comment by cactus
2017-03-17 12:35:12

We had to wait the 6 months but their was so much demand they let employees sell 20% right away. a few years ago.

Depends how the selling goes I would guess. We also got down rounded because the bank wanted it that way.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-17 12:48:39

So cactus, it sounds like it’s a market convention (demanded by the new investors), rather than an SEC rule…is that your understanding?

 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-17 12:11:41

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/snapchat-founders-and-investors-sell-millions-of-shares-in-snap-ipo-2017-03-01

Looks like founders and early investors sold about 25% of the shares offered in the IPO.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-17 18:34:30

Bagholders R Us

 
 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2017-03-17 11:12:25

SNAP is just barely above its IPO price.

It will be bankrupt in two years time…

Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-17 13:30:34

And will Uber ever see an IPO?

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-17 14:21:20

If you asked me 3 months ago, I would have said “almost certainly yes”.

Given what has happened in the last few months (corporate culture issues, lunatic CEO, Google suing for theft of intellectual property, etc.), I still think “yes”, but the “almost certainly” is gone.

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-17 12:04:52

And BTW, I’m really tired of people calling non-tech companies “tech stocks”. Snap is *not* a tech stock.

The media does that because the hoi-polloi can’t relate to or understand real tech. But they can understand social media, which is built on top of real, if not “sexy”, tech.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-17 13:21:04

And BTW, I’m really tired of people calling non-tech companies “tech stocks”. Snap is *not* a tech stock.

It sounds as if you have your own arbitrary personal definition that a lot of people disagree with.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-17 16:22:41

Hmm, reminds me of another poster ’round these here parts.

 
 
Comment by butters
2017-03-17 13:25:16

In “tech”, only handful hit the lottery. Most hop from one place to another hoping for the “big dirty” which never arrives.

Comment by butters
2017-03-17 13:39:36

Also everything in “tech” is about quick and dirty money. Never ever fall for the “innovation”, “diversity”, “openness”, “environment”, and all other mumbo jumbo you see and hear from tech “shysters”.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2017-03-17 11:09:49

Love him or hate him - This man keeps his promises.

—–

“The Trump administration’s budget plan for 2018 includes cuts to federal agencies that are so large, some economists say it would drive down federal employment and make a noticeable dent in housing prices in Washington, DC, Virginia and Maryland.

Comment by butters
2017-03-17 13:40:51

60 billion increase in defense?

They need places to live, no?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-03-18 08:03:02

Yes but for the most part not around DC, He is talking about adding a lot of soldiers, sailors, airman and Marines. Their housing will be around their military bases.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-18 10:02:57

Much of the spending will go on armaments, in other words profits for big business.

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Comment by Jessica
2017-03-18 08:11:16

God Bless him - the DC area has become a liberal, parasitic mess. MS-13 gangs, illegal immigration madness, transgender agenda in FFX county schools - and the average joe/jane making 100k off of the taxpayer and living in 500k glorified shacks. These parasites cannot be fired -ever. They have pensions that other Americans have to finance while struggling to save for their own paltry retirements.

There has never been an area of the country so ripe for reform as DC metro.

Comment by @AltFacts
2017-03-18 22:15:03

Defense contractors = next generation of DC parasites

Comment by Jessica
2017-03-19 09:42:59

Next? That started with Bush Jr..

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-17 11:13:19

From the first link:

‘Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, anticipated that the combination of reduced salaries in the area and fewer people coming to work in the area would undercut a market that has mostly been immune to any serious downsides because of the growth of government.’

“He said the suburban areas of the D.C. marketplace will be hit the hardest,” the Journal reported. “He pointed toward the I-270 corridor, and to cities such as Gaithersburg, as potential areas that could see the biggest hits from a drop in the housing market.”

‘But Mulvaney seemed unfazed. Trump’s budget calls significant cuts to various federal agencies in order to help fund a $54 billion increase in defense spending. That includes a “fairly dramatic reduction” at the State Department, he said.’

Chairman Mao Zandi doesn’t sound happy. I wonder what that thumb sucker Krugman thinks? Well, hit em where it hurts, I say, freaking leeches have been feeding for too long.

Example

Comment by 2banana
2017-03-17 11:22:59

Its amaxing how these leeches and those in the FSA have come to think as “normal” obama economics.

Zero interest rates

Adding more to debt than ALL other previous administrations combined9 and accounting for inflation

No risk in investing in stocks and RE

Free and cheap money falling from the sky

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-17 11:43:35

It’s been going on for 20 years at least. IMO this QE was the blow out. It’ll be looked back on as the biggest policy mistake in modern history. All the excesses sprang from that. New dotbomb, commercial RE, houses, antique cars, paintings, wine, rosewood furniture, New Zealand dairy farms, grilled cheese trucks, everything. Like one guy says, what a Fukushima.

Comment by 2banana
2017-03-17 11:50:35

All that debt that will never be paid back.

Millions of people financially ruined.

Massive bankruptcies.

Demand has been pulled in for a decade. It will not magically be recreated.

All to avoid a recession and to hold on to power a little while longer…

And with the very good possibility of it all ending in a devastating war.

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Comment by butters
2017-03-17 13:22:56

Hey that’s me!

Anyway you look at it…..Amerikka what a fukushima!

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Comment by junior_kai
2017-03-17 15:34:19

Dont be dissing the grilled cheese Ben. Its gourmet!

Everythings tastier with quantitative easing.

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Comment by Crow Breath
2017-03-17 12:14:03

Fire them all.

Keep the infrastructure departments to fix the poison water pipes all over the country, and have a basic safety net for the truly mentally insane, and the true crippled. Everything else should go.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-17 15:02:50

Everything must go!

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Comment by junior_kai
2017-03-17 15:39:44

Yep, hoping the increase in defense is just a bargaining chip and that gets whittled down as well. Less .gov = more freedom. Doubt me?

EPA = water sucks, air is a joke, but hey, we’re not China!
DOE = kids dumber than dirt
SEC = vampire squid running rampant
NPR, PBS = pi55 down our backs and tells us its raining
FDA = GMO is fine. Really. And take these 67 vaccines. Its good for you. We promise.
TSA = TFW you realize you’re “the gimp” from the movie pulp fiction

Anarchy burger - hold the government!

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Comment by @AltFacts
2017-03-18 07:31:12

So obliterating the Nixon-established EPA is going to somehow lead to cleaner water and air?

You must live in LaLa Land…

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-18 10:01:34

Yeah, the EPA was created because there were big problems with air pollution and water pollution. Maybe junior would like gasoline to have lead in it again as well.

 
 
 
Comment by Taxpayers
2017-03-17 15:54:26

Obama offered to streamline gov so trumpf is just continuing the program

Comment by Jessica
2017-03-18 09:47:59

Obama offered to streamline gov……..

cite your source please

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Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-18 12:02:55

The Housing Bubble Blog.

(Don’t be a DebtDonkey)

 
 
 
 
Comment by Taxpayers
2017-03-17 15:01:45

God save Oxide,fire the rest

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-17 15:05:47

At least she’ll get to test her shack buying theory.

 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-17 12:13:56

Sherman Oaks, CA Housing Prices Plunge 10% YoY As Housing Demand Craters Statewide

https://www.zillow.com/sherman-oaks-los-angeles-ca/home-values/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-17 15:07:37

‘a sobering reality: even people near the top one per cent of all income earners in Canada ‘are at best able to afford a semi-detached home on the fringes of Toronto, or maybe a low-end detached home verging on teardown status’

And Canada didn’t have a housing bubble because of their superior banking and government oversight.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-03-17 15:40:42

‘a sobering reality: even people near the top one per cent of all income earners in Canada ‘are at best able to afford a semi-detached home on the fringes of Toronto, or maybe a low-end detached home verging on teardown status’

Sounds like San Jose. It’s amazing that so many people have been convinced that’s a good thing. They can’t wait to get on that ladder to riches too.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-17 18:07:05

March 17, 2017 3:36 p.m.
4 Reasons Why the Trump Budget Cuts Won’t Happen

By Ed Kilgore

The budget outline released by the president’s Office of Management and Budget yesterday was indeed a hair-raising document reflecting the hard-core conservative ideology of the Trump administration despite its populist trappings. It deserved the opprobrium it drew from Republicans and Democrats alike.

But let’s be clear: Mick Mulvaney’s handiwork is largely an illusion. At the end of the day, Big Bird’s goose will not be cooked; Meals on Wheels will still roll; and the Pentagon may well have to get by with the mere half-trillion-dollars plus it was already slated to receive for the upcoming fiscal year.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/03/4-reasons-why-the-trump-budget-cuts-wont-happen.html

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-17 18:13:49

Don’t worry Mike, he’ll be out by August. He won’t get the nomination. He’ll never be elected. His budget won’t pass. All these illegals getting rounded up won’t be deported. It’s gonna be a long 8 years for you, Mike.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-17 16:44:24

‘Mexico state has so many mass graves, lacks space for bodies’

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mexico-many-graves-lacks-space-bodies-exhumed-214727485.html

And their biggest problem is the wall.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-17 16:47:36

Visit the more upscale districts of Mexico City. Most houses and neighborhoods boast formidable gates, entrance barriers, and high walls topped with razor wire and broken glass. Mexicans know what those are for: to keep out undesirables.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2017-03-17 19:27:29

But… but… a lib friend tells me that illegals aren’t eligible for benefits…

 
 
Comment by Crow Breath
2017-03-17 17:00:16

A rare bit of truth from the bankers about the Toronto bubble. Prices are up 23% higher since last year.

“”It’s pretty much the best time to be selling a Toronto home in at least 30 years,” BMO economist Robert Kavcic said, noting that feverish activity is spilling over into neighbouring regions.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/toronto-housing-bmo-td-1.4028032

Sell, Mortimer!

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-17 17:17:52

‘Today, rents are still expensive, but the market has plateaued after years of painful increases’

1 - 120 / 2500

https://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/sfc/apa

1 - 120 / 871

https://sfbay.craigslist.org/search/sfc/apa?query=free+rent&availabilityMode=0

$2200 / 500ft2 - Studio in NEMA-Rent *NEGOTIABLE* (SOMA / south beach)

https://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/apa/6038852113.html

$2767 / 475ft2 - Now Available! PRICE DROP on Premium Studio! Lease & get APRIL FREE! (lower pac hts)

https://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/apa/6047184758.html

$5250 / 2br - 1200ft2 - OBO Furnished or Unfurnish - 2BR/2BA Luxury Corner Condo in SOMA GRAND (downtown / civic / van ness)

https://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/apa/6046778639.html

$28 Looking for a Temporary Solution (Bay Area)

This could be a great short term or long term rental solution for you.. Tell us where you would like to live. Our van is spotless and thoroughly cleaned after each use!
Rents in San Francisco and the Bay Area are high even if you could find a place. Be adventurous and think about this possible stop gap measure.
We provide everything (sheets, pillows, blankets, towels, etc) you need. There is no smoking in our vans. You tell us the area where you would like it parked and we do the research to make that happen for you. More and more people are choosing this temporary solution. Feel free to call me (Bob).
You can keep the van stationary (plan “A”) or you can drive also (plan “B”)

A gym membership (for showering), and one of our vans will get you thru tough times while your looking for that PERFECT and AFFORDABLE apartment…..

https://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/apa/6046541703.html

Comment by Bubblebot
2017-03-17 21:30:09

“You tell us the area where you would like it parked and we do the research to make that happen for you.”

I want to live in the van parked down by the river.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-03-17 22:47:30

Just sign right here and we can make it happen for you.

 
 
Comment by MWR
2017-03-18 06:10:21

From Palmetto yesterday “I was asking about the SE NC “parts” that MWR mentioned. Wondering what parts they were referring to.”

I was referring to Jacksonville, a marine base. I would live in most of the areas. Now the apartments are not brand new but the areas are safe. Hell you got Marines all around you. The “kids” in Jacksonville are the MOST polite I have ever met. My Ex girlfriend, who was married to a Marine lifer for 15 years, says that is because they think I am a retired Marine Officer (I am not) as there are many retired marines living in Jacksonville.

Housing is probably similar to Fayetteville Oxide referred to.

In 2009 my now x-girlfriend lived right near base at 599 for a 2 bedroom less than a mile to the base. Now her daughter lives about 4 houses down from the prior place in a 2 bedroom. Rent: 595 a month. Oh a lot of Class A type apartments have been built 5-6 miles up the road.

Total aside, but if you ever get the change to spend a week on a military base (as a vacation) do it. Been to Jacksonville and Fort Hood and a buddy spent a week at a Marine base in Hawaii. He and his girlfriend had the entire beach to themselves during the week and I had the same experience in Jacksonville. Now the live mortars going off and the helicopters doing night maneuvers do get your attention but yea, I’d do it again in a heartbeat.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-18 08:08:34

Thank you, MWR. That’s the answer I was looking for.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-17 17:48:15

Thank goodness China’s economy is being steered by wise and prudent central planners and their five-year plans. Otherwise this would look a lot like a bubble.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-17/why-fate-world-economy-hands-chinas-housing-bubble

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-03-18 06:42:57

The main difference between us and them is they admit what they are doing:

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/real-estate/China-home-prices-continue-to-stabilize/shdaily.shtml

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-03-18 07:29:24

Is he doing this to keep up the stock price or does he really believe? Personally, I do not think he is going to deliver an affordable electric car that turns a profit for the company but I do not have a strong conviction on that:

http://www.fin24.com/Tech/News/musks-own-borrowing-up-as-banks-underwrite-more-tesla-debt-20170317

 
 
Comment by Crispy&cole
2017-03-17 19:03:28

I’m back. Came here in 2003…left in 2009…this thing is ready to come down hard.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-17 19:41:08

Those two guys are still in jail?

Comment by Crispy&cole
2017-03-17 19:48:15

Yep. They are doing hard time. Probably the few who actually did.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-17 19:52:07

Were they realtors?

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-17 19:58:24

‘Were they realtors?’

Newbie question.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-03-17 22:46:29

2003…left in 2009

Wow…nice to see you back.

 
 
 
Comment by rms
2017-03-17 20:40:03

“They are doing hard time.”

White bread and Water Moccasins… oh my!

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Comment by davidd
2017-03-18 14:37:20

Partners in fraud…partners in jail. They both got 17 1/2 years

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Get Stucco
2017-03-17 19:49:26

Welcome back!

Comment by azdude
2017-03-18 04:28:04

Weren’t those the douchbags running amuck in the bakersfield area? I think they even had a private jet.

 
 
Comment by Jingle Male
2017-03-20 03:50:08

If I recall correctly, you were in the valuation business in the Sacramento Valley. How are things looking to you theses days. Are you seeing anything similar to the fiascos you observed leading into 2006?

 
 
Comment by Get Stucco
2017-03-17 19:52:17

“…the budget wasn’t written to help prop up DC-area housing prices that have been the envy of other parts of the country for decades.”

One almost gets the sense that the swamp Trump plans to drain includes DC housing.

Is anyone buying there now?

Comment by tresho
2017-03-17 23:08:56

“…the budget wasn’t written to help prop up DC-area housing prices”
That’s un-American. Or racis.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-18 04:00:44
 
Comment by azdude
2017-03-18 04:29:41

Seems wall street likes these boom and bust cycles cause they get access to cheap money.Then they run asset prices back up and then dump them on mom and pop.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-03-18 05:37:12

Interesting: Donald Trump does not know these people but nevertheless he has enormous power over their sleeping habits, power that these people - willingly or not - have turned over to him.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sleepless-in-seattle-and-other-places-trump-induced-insomnia-stalks-blue-state-america-050014746.html

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-03-18 08:14:28

Bahahahaha … if you are gong to bother to read this article then be sure to read some of the comments.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-18 10:05:12

There’s no need. From your glee, it can be assumed that many of the commenters are dopey, angry clowns.

 
 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-03-18 06:14:41

One of my personal heros … George Economou (from Wikipedia) …

“George Economou or Georgios Ekonomou (Γεώργιος Οικονόμου, born 1953) is a Greek billionaire shipowner, CEO of DryShips Inc. …”

DRYSHIPS! An excellent company to use in order to exchange a large fortune for a much, much smaller one …

“… and Ocean Rig, and the owner of Cardiff Marine. Economou owns oil tankers as well as dry bulk ships and manages them through Cardiff Marine. He was on the Forbes Magazines list of the world’s billionaires on place 707.

“In 2005, DryShips was listed on Nasdaq, but Cardiff Marine is privately owned by Economou. Economou owns 34% of DryShips, but has been accused of running it like a private company.”

Bahahahahahahahahahaha …

“Since 2008, he has allegedly been doing affiliate transactions from his own private company to steal shareholder value.”

Say it ain’t so!

“In March 2015, he had a net worth of $1.5 billion, and a fleet of 116 ships, according to Bloomberg.

“In 2016 and 2017 he diluted DryShips shares four times through reverse split (total reverse split is 12,000 : 1) to decrease DryShips outstanding shares to 1 million. Then he issued 60 million new shares to made affiliate transactions from his own private company to sell DryShips four overpriced very large gas carrier (vlgc). In 2017, he reverse split the shares again at 8:1.”

Bahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha …

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-03-18 07:50:33
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-03-18 07:56:50

Some info about George taken from the net …

“It was surreal. When someone asked why he was doing the deal, here–now, he actually said, basically, ‘Because Americans are the dumbest investors around, and there’s lots of liquidity in this market.’”

“I am not in the “dry bulk” industry. I have done my share of world traveling and I have never seen a shortage of ships. There are always plenty of ships parked outside the port waiting/hoping for a charter. If there was a temporary shortage, it is going to be cured by the severe recession in bound to the US and a slow down in the US’ debt ridden, over leveraged, “consumption based” economy. The ships that are being built or utilized currently are getting ready to be parked and transformed to barnacle rust collectors. Many of their owners will cash out and file bankruptcy.”

 
 
Comment by @AltFacts
2017-03-18 07:36:40

“Today, rents are still expensive, but the market has plateaued after years of painful increases. It’s part of a broader trend in the Bay Area: Silicon Valley’s technology bubble has had some of its wind knocked out – not bursting, but fizzling – with VCs making fewer investments, startup valuations falling, and recruitment slowing.”

It appears that the Bay Area housing market has achieved a permanently high plateau.

Comment by Get Stucco
2017-03-18 07:58:30

There is a very simple reason why plateaus in the aftermath of a bubble tend to not be permanently high, which is that the slice of speculative demand which was present solely to capture high rates of price appreciation dries up when prices level off. The disappearance of this component of demand leads to a simultaneous increase in supply, as speculators try to offload their investments on greater fools, plus further weakening of demand. So in short, speculative investing during the boom to capture temporary unsustainably high rates of price appreciation sows the seeds of the next crash.

Try not to get stucco.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-18 07:44:32

San Francisco County, CA Rental Rates Plunge 7% YoY As Housing Demand Craters 13% Statewide

https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-county-ca/home-values/

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-18 08:54:10

US taxpayers fund 25% of the IMF’s budget (the IMF is led by convicted fraudster Christine LaGarde; it’s past two heads also have criminal convictions). Will Donald Trump finally act to remove US taxpayer liability for constant bailouts that only benefit the banksters who foolishly and recklessly lent money to black holes like Greece?

https://mishtalk.com/2017/03/17/us-pressures-imf-over-greece/

 
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