March 20, 2017

The Housing Market Is Bubbly

A report from The Age in Australia. “A senior Chinese policeman has been jailed for 17 years for embezzling money to buy two Australian homes for his two daughters. The Australian real estate purchases were among a huge property portfolio, with no obvious legitimate source of funding, Chinese prosecutors said. Wang Jun Ren, 59, was the police chief of Guta District of Jinzhou City in Liaoning province, when he began asking a local property developer for millions of Chinese yuan to pay for the Australian real estate purchases for his family.”

“Wang was convicted of corruptly taking 174million yuan by himself, and another 24,800 yuan with his wife, taking bribes of 680million yuan, and having a huge amount of property of unknown source. That trial was held in December. The jail sentence comprised of four years for corruption, 12 years for bribe taking, and four years for the unknown funding source of a huge number of properties.”

The Domain News. “Rob and Ruth Peters don’t see themselves as criminals. She is the mother of two home-schooled children and Rob is best known in his Canadian home town as the high-profile oil and gas entrepreneur. But it seemed fitting to depict the family of four as criminals wearing striped prison garb in a caricature on their recent farewell party invitation given the way they feel the government has portrayed them and other foreigners caught up in the crackdown on foreign property buyers.”

“Despite appeals by their local MP, Tony Abbott to Treasurer Scott Morrison on their behalf, the Peters family are being forced to sell their Manly home of the past 14 years because they unknowingly bought it in contravention of the rules on foreign investment.”

“‘We appreciate what the government is trying to do but they’ve missed the boat on this issue,’ Mrs Peters said. ‘They’ve made it very easy for foreigners to buy as much real estate as they want as long as they have paid for a $5 million [Significant Investment] Visa, even if the buyers are never living here and leave the house empty, but we are living here and contributing to the community we live in, and yet we are being forced out.’”

From Bloomberg. “Australia is facing a period of ‘heightened risk’ in the housing market, the nation’s top banking regulator said, amid rising speculation further lending curbs may be imposed to cool runaway housing prices. Australian Prudential Regulation Authority Chairman Wayne Byres said that while he refused to ever use the ‘B-word’ — referring to a bubble — ‘if everyone isn’t careful, the risk in the system is going to rise.’”

“APRA’s role is to ‘dampen’ lenders’ enthusiasm and ensure finance providers are exercising a ‘higher degree of caution than unusual,’ he said. Earlier, Australian Securities & Investments Commission Chairman Greg Medcraft told the conference the housing market is ‘bubbly’ and he is ‘really concerned consumers don’t put themselves in above their head.’”

The Sydney Morning Herald. “Hundreds of new home owners have been left in limbo after the collapse of a land developer in Melbourne’s outer north-west. Developer Land Source Australia was placed in administration last year leaving residents of Waterford Estate unsure if key features of the estate – parks, ovals and shopping centres promised by the developers – will be delivered.”

“Waterford is the second developer in as many months to go into administration. Home builder Watersun, a company founded by high-profile developer Benni Aroni, was placed in voluntary administration leaving a cloud over 200 home owners.”

“Adrian Swinge, who has lived on the estate with his wife and three children for four years, said he had been led to believe a school would be built by the time his four-year-old son turned five. ‘We’ve invested in this estate and we’re left with no course of action. It’s blown up in our face. This was our future, this house,’ he said.”

From ABC News. “Debts run up by collapsed Victorian construction firm Watersun Homes are likely to hit $20 million, double the original estimates, the administrators say. The hundreds of homebuyers affected by the collapse were told they should find out within a matter of weeks if other building firms are willing to complete about 300 unfinished homes. In all there are 800 creditors — including 90 employees who have lost their jobs.”

“One employee, who did not want to be named, said she knew there were problems and warned of a ‘ripple effect’ across the industry. ‘They were good at sales, but bad at management,’ she said.”

From Reuters. “Australia’s quarter-century run of uninterrupted economic growth has made its property market one of the world’s most expensive, but mortgage pain in towns hit by a commodities downturn is beginning to be felt in parts of the financial system. While most Australians are able to pay their debts, alarm bells have sounded around pockets of distress in the mining-heavy states, raising warnings from policymakers, ratings agencies and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.”

“In the remote mining town of Karratha in Western Australia, 61-year-old Peter Lynch received a letter advising him that his bank was going to repossess his house at the end of the March. Two decades ago, Lynch borrowed money to buy a five-bedroom house in the town, thinking his job as a railway maintenance worker at Rio Tinto would last until he retired. But the end of a one-in-a-century mining boom changed all that. He now owes A$222,000 ($168,764) and earns A$42,000 a year as a cleaner, or roughly half his pay at the mine.”

“‘My property in 2010 was worth A$905,000, today it’s worth A$260,000,’ Lynch said, estimating that seven out of 20 homes on his suburban street were for sale.”




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95 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-20 15:28:50

From the last link:

‘Signs of stress are now showing in the mortgage insurance market - shares in Australia’s largest mortgage insurer, Genworth Mortgage Insurance, are down 19 percent since early February. The company, which provides protection to lenders from borrowers defaulting on their home loans, last month reported an 11 percent profit drop in 2016 due to a jump in mortgage delinquencies.’

‘Australian borrowers typically pay for insurance when they have less than a 20 percent deposit on their home purchase.’

‘Genworth said in February last year’s loss ratio of 35.1 percent, up from 24 percent in 2015, reflected higher average paid claims in resources-exposed regions, particularly Queensland and Western Australia.’

Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-21 06:57:11

let me guess,aus has a gov agency to backstop the whole mess

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-21 11:34:53

Which would involve printing a lot of money and selling foreign reserves; which leads to currency devaluation; especially when your currency isn’t a world reserve currency. Sure, as long as you run huge trade surpluses and have bilions of USD’s stashed away everything is fine and dandy.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-20 15:30:14

‘My property in 2010 was worth A$905,000, today it’s worth A$260,000,’ Lynch said’

Example

Comment by junior_kai
2017-03-20 17:03:01

For Aussie stories, might want to use a pic of the Xanthorrhoea, or grass tree as its native to the continent.

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/184577284703562481/

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-21 15:03:43

Nope, Joshua tree conveys the desired message just fine.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-20 21:23:21

900 grand at the peak in a mining town in Australia’s BFE. And I thought Berthoud was overpriced.

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2017-03-21 09:57:02

“today it’s worth A$260,000…He now owes A$222,000″

What’s the problem? Why are they reposessing the house? You still have A$38,000 in equity and a job.

“…seven out of 20 homes on his suburban street were for sale.”

Hmm, that could be a problem. Well, I just freed up some boxes in my garage if you need them, Peter.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-03-20 16:27:48

Maybe people from other states are finally realizing what a bad idea it is to move here, LOLZ.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-20 16:42:36

Here is another development, this one closer to home:

https://dakotaglen.com/featured-new-homes/

2000 sq ft houses, in Loveland, for $450K! And they sold quite a few last year.

Comment by mwr
2017-03-20 18:07:35

A builder in a suburb of Raleigh is advertising 2000 sq. ft homes for $120,000.

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Comment by palmetto
2017-03-20 18:11:38

Well, dang, Race Bannon must’ve set up shop there.

 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-20 18:20:59
 
Comment by palmetto
2017-03-20 18:33:09

That’s so gay. NTTAWWT. All those guys looking sideways at each other.

 
Comment by scdave
2017-03-20 18:37:09

A builder in a suburb of Raleigh is advertising 2000 sq. ft homes for $120,000 ?

Link please.

 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-20 19:29:17

“A builder in a suburb of Raleigh is advertising 2000 sq. ft homes for $120,000.”

So long as the “appraisers” and realitters stay out of it. Otherwise, the fraud becomes omnipresent.

 
Comment by scdave
2017-03-20 19:36:32

Ignore HA. Supply link supporting your post.

 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-20 19:50:33

It’s true and you know it my friend…. it’s true. Here’s just one of hundreds of examples of UHS scamming.

“2 Men Charged in Santa Maria Real Estate Fraud Case”

https://www.noozhawk.com/article/santa_maria_men_charged_real_estate_fraud_case

 
Comment by oxide
2017-03-21 13:06:50

I couldn’t find $120K, but I did find some new construction townhomes for $138K at Abbington Ridge. Yeah, it’s cheap and basic and probably in a ‘hood, but isn’t this the housing the people really need?

http://www.homes.com/property/3970-volkswalk-pl-raleigh-nc-27610/id-328935800/

 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-21 13:35:39

Hey Donk.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-21 13:38:08

Those look like townhouses.

I have a relative who lives in a Raleigh exurb (Fuquay Varina). The houses in his neighborhood look pretty vanilla and they go for about 200K. From what he tells me if you get any closer to Raleigh prices go up and fast.

 
 
Comment by rms
2017-03-21 00:29:20

“2000 sq ft houses, in Loveland, for $450K!”

Those are spec houses with added trim, which aren’t worth more than $165k during the best of times. $450k is simply insane for any typical Sixpack family.

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-21 09:59:27

I suspect that the base model, without the fancy cabinets, upgraded flooring, upgraded appliances, upgraded “elevation” etc. is listed in the high 300s.

And Dakota Glen isn’t in a great location either. I believe it’s in a floodplain. No golf course lots, and it’s downstream from Boedecker, which is a reservoir. I’m not sure if it overflowed during 2013 flood, but I wouldn’t be surprised. We seem to get a storm like that every 40 years or so. The previous one was in the 70’s and it washed away all the bridges in town. The replacement bridges were much sturdier and they survived the 2013 flood, even though many were fully submerged.

 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-21 11:18:24

$165k. And earning profit fist over dollar-filled fist.

 
Comment by rms
2017-03-21 12:44:57

$165k is just over $80/sqft, which is enough that everyone involved will make something. $450k? Insanity.

 
 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-21 06:58:31

I know someone that bought a fixer inn Loveland in 2015
can he get out and cover the 6% ?

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-21 07:40:19

If it he paid around or under 200K (say a 30+ year old 1500 sq ft split level) he should still be able to sell it in a day or two with multiple offers. It will get progressively more difficult to get his money back the higher his purchase price.

 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-21 07:57:07

“It will get progressively more difficult to get his money back the higher his purchase price.”

Profound.

Greenwood Village, CO Housing Prices Crater 11% YoY

https://www.zillow.com/greenwood-village-co/home-values/

 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-20 21:28:18

Maybe people from other states are finally realizing what a bad idea it is to move here

But what about the kickball leagues and the Broncos? That has to count for something.

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-03-21 08:41:30

Yeah, and spending 4 hours in the car driving each way on 70 to ski a single day on the weekend.

Denver is over. Over.

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-21 10:23:53

They keep talking about adding lanes, which would require an Eisenhower expansion, meaning they want Uncle Sugar to pick up the tab, as it will cost billions.

It won’t happen.

Denver is over. Over.

And yet, you’re still there ;-)

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-20 16:45:10

‘A senior Chinese policeman has been jailed for 17 years for embezzling money to buy two Australian homes for his two daughters. The Australian real estate purchases were among a huge property portfolio, with no obvious legitimate source of funding, Chinese prosecutors said’

Anyone remember when you were called a racist if you suggested this was going on?

Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-20 17:42:21

Fake Yuan.

 
Comment by palmetto
2017-03-20 17:49:35

“Anyone remember when you were called a racist if you suggested this was going on?”

Nope, missed that one. I’m jealous, though. Why does this not happen to the thousands of embezzlers and their enablers in Washington and Wall Street? Can we outsource this aspect (financial crimes) of our justice system to China? Just kidding, actually. It’d be a slippery slope and in this case, it was just some beat cop who was looking for a better life for his family, seems like. Not one of the big commies. Little commie. Ground level enforcer. Betcha there are some folks on his beat experiencing some schadenfreude, though.

But this does sort of speak to the much ballyhooed “high IQ Chinese” meme. Embezzle some moolah and stick around to get caught. Wut?

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-20 17:55:39

Oops, wait, my memory’s coming back. I do remember aladinsane giving me the business for using the term “Red China” and ahansen got all blue-nosey one time when I referred to myself as a “round eye” with respect to some story on the Red Chinese. Good times.

Comment by scdave
2017-03-20 18:39:48

She also told you that you “own it”.

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Comment by palmetto
2017-03-20 18:57:14

Heh. I’m not the one who got owned.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-20 17:26:45

Denver County, CO Rental Rates Crater 5% YoY

https://www.zillow.com/denver-county-co/home-values/

 
Comment by palmetto
2017-03-20 18:49:31

OT, but this is kind of interesting.

Global brands shun Google (linked from Drudge, subscription, but you can get the idea from the teaser copy)

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/global-brands-shun-google-p9zlr7bq7

“Hundreds of companies suspend advertising in row over extremist content”

Truth is, these companies probably have discovered that eyeballs don’t necessarily translate to sales and realize that they’ve been getting soaked for $$ they might as well have flushed down the toilet. Trust me, they would NOT pull their advertising if it was even halfway effective. They’d sponsor kiddie shows live from Comet Pizza if they thought it would bring in a buck or two. But, this gives them a chance to virtue signal as they withdraw from a bad deal.

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-03-21 08:43:29

“virtue signal”

Half my Facebook news feed is virtue signalling pearl clutchers, LOLZ.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-21 08:47:58

they’ve been getting soaked for $$ they might as well have flushed down the toilet.

I don’t know about that…I’ve talked to some businesses who find that they get 30%+ of their business through Google…the price they pay is a small fraction of that.

But I think that’s all the “Adwords” buys…direct search. If I search “pink lampshades” and you sell pink lampshades, it is highly likely Google will point that search to your store, and also highly likely that the person doing the searching wants your product.

It’s the blanket advertising that is harder, but that’s akin to television commercials. I think where Google will ultimately make it’s money will be through Youtube, where they can target ads to demographics, and what companies have learned over the years from TV advertising will inform their buying decisions and ad content.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-21 13:22:25

Ya gotta at least read the teaser copy, RW, so:

“I’ve talked to some businesses who find that they get 30%+ of their business through Google”

I’m guessing they’re not “global brands”.

“it is highly likely Google will point that search to your store”

Not necessarily. Trust me on this. That used to be true. Now, not so much. They keep f-ing with the algorithms, instead of doing the old tried and true.

“I think where Google will ultimately make it’s money will be through Youtube”

Heh. That’s the beef these global brands SAY they have with google/YouTube. They don’t like some of the content. Which is BS. That’s like saying you won’t advertise on CBS because you object to 60 Minutes, even though some other program works well for you.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-21 14:01:37

Not necessarily. Trust me on this. That used to be true. Now, not so much. They keep f-ing with the algorithms, instead of doing the old tried and true.

And this is almost the purest test. How often have you heard companies (usually smaller businesses, admittedly) comment on how much business they lost because Google tweaked their algorithms, and they dropped from search results?

Heh. That’s the beef these global brands SAY they have with google/YouTube. They don’t like some of the content. Which is BS. That’s like saying you won’t advertise on CBS because you object to 60 Minutes, even though some other program works well for you.

But with network television, you have the FCC watching content. I’m sure not all advertisers were pleased when J Timberlake exposed J Jackson’s breast on national television–but that’s the exception…and that’s SUPER-tame compared to some of the sh*t that happens on YouTube.

Do you want your brand associated with some dude spouting off neo-Nazi BS? Or tasteless, racist jokes? If you don’t have control over where your ads go, you might just cut the ad spend altogether.

The other side of this is also interesting…I’ve read some stories about how tv channels that sell ads to local advertisers make a a lot more than channels that only sell to those who advertise nationally.

They might charge local businesses a lot less per ad, but they can sell that same 30 second slot 100+ times across the country instead of just once.

YouTube does this with a lot more than simply geography from which to choose ads.

Remember, YouTube shows 1 Billion hours of video…per day…that’s a lot of ads to sell. They have plenty of reasons to keep the advertisers happy.

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Comment by palmetto
2017-03-20 19:20:12

Hey, how come we’re not celebrating? This POS shuffled off the mortal coil.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/20/business/david-rockefeller-dead-chase-manhattan-banker.html

Don’t let the door hitya where the good lord splitya. Too bad you couldn’t take your nephew with you.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-21 07:43:36

Another viper will take his place.

 
Comment by redmondjp
2017-03-21 09:08:29

Fellow globalists Henry Kissinger and George Soros are still alive.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-21 15:06:59

Only the good die young.

 
 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-03-20 23:53:46

leaving residents of Waterford Estate unsure if key features of the estate – parks, ovals and shopping centres promised by the developers – will be delivered.”

Let me cut through that uncertainty for you: they will definitely not be delivered as promised. :-)

‘We’ve invested in this estate and we’re left with no course of action. It’s blown up in our face. This was our future, this house,’ he said.”

Ah, I chuckled out loud at that one. Schadenfreude at its best right there.

A house—that’s your future??!? No recourse against a developer—e.g. you have zero understanding of how developers handle downturns by folding up the tent and opening a new tent.

Yes, you deserve to lose, for your failures of due diligence.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-03-21 00:10:08

“Paid for the dream… awoke to the hangover.” :-)

 
 
Comment by Karen
2017-03-21 00:12:25

From the Reuters article, “[Australian] Domestic mortgage debt stands at a whopping A$1.7 trillion, equal to the country’s entire annual economic output.”

No worries mate.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-21 08:54:55

For perspective, the US has about $9T of single family mortgage debt, approximately 55% of GDP.

And we are hardly the picture of fiscal sanity here.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-21 10:28:00

[Australian] Domestic mortgage debt stands at a whopping A$1.7 trillion, equal to the country’s entire annual economic output.

Now add credit car debt, auto loan debt, business debt, etc., plus the high taxes to pay for their welfare state.

 
 
Comment by rms
2017-03-21 00:43:51

From the last link; the Sydney Morning Herald piece. The photo of that swollen, over-weight construction worker, no hard hat, gym shorts, tennis shoes, etc., probably hasn’t performed a full day’s work in ten years.

Comment by rms
 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-21 10:30:30

Looks like his job is to mix the mortar for the bricklayers.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-03-21 04:20:04

London is the epicenter of global financial fraud and money laundering. Of course, no bankers need ever fear actual consequences.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/20/british-banks-handled-vast-sums-of-laundered-russian-money

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-21 07:42:00

Those $200K+ Aston Martins and estates in the countryside don’t pay for themselves.

 
Comment by butters
2017-03-21 12:41:26

How would Amerikka and UK survive if not for laundering money or waging wars?

What a fukushima!

 
 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-21 07:14:20

vix at 11
so would it be a good time to buy snap, a private purchase of UBER

any others?

digital buggywhip ?

 
Comment by butters
2017-03-21 07:45:03

The US has conveyed to India there is no significant change in the H1B visa regime, Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in Lok Sabha. “I am glad to say that as regards the H1B visa for 2018, the US government has already notified their position and there is not any significant change from the existing regime,”

LOL

Comment by rms
 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-21 10:31:42

Why does the world expect us to be their escape valve? Can’t India employ its own people?

Comment by butters
2017-03-21 12:29:29

Don’t blame the Indians. Blame the captains of your industries and the government that solely works for them. Then again history shows that work always flows wherever the cheap labor is.

I am an open border kind of person myself, but you can’t have that with the government we have.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-21 13:34:29

I’m just saying that foreign governments expect us to be their escape valve, and have conniptions when we threaten to not take their people. Mexico expects us to absorb millions of its citizens, give them food stamp, educate their kids and provide them with free healthcare, etc. Indian expects us to take a higher caliber of people, but they still expect us to take them. I don’t recall the US government throwing a hissy fit because other countries don’t welcome our people with open arms, even if the pay is lower.

Offshoring is a whole other ball of wax.

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Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-21 14:30:15

cheaper and cheaper are good for the economy, someone keeps typing.

foreign labor is cheaper

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Comment by PoohEmoji
2017-03-21 07:58:45

https://www.bisnow.com/san-diego/news/hotel/new-city-attorney-issues-legal-opinion-prohibiting-short-term-rentals-72222?utm_medium=email_share&utm_source=website#ath

I suspect part of this is due to the old time hotel owner families (Mission Bay hotels, Evans e.g.) and their little by-time sweetheart deals and cozy relationship with former mayors and councils. They help the city leaders with some of their decision making.

“San Diego city attorney Mara Elliott has concluded short-term vacation rentals are not allowed in the city’s residential or commercial areas. Her legal opinion, which runs counter to her predecessor, Jan Goldsmith, was submitted in a memo yesterday for consideration by the city council. Goldsmith had determined current legal code is too vague and would need to be amended for clarification if the city decides to ban vacation rental platforms like Airbnb and VRBO, the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.”

https://www.bisnow.com/san-diego/news/hotel/new-city-attorney-issues-legal-opinion-prohibiting-short-term-rentals-72222?utm_medium=email_share&utm_source=website#ath?utm_source=CopyShare&utm_medium=Browser

 
Comment by azdude
2017-03-21 08:12:06

“We analysed US credit cycles from the early 1980s on wards and
found that previous credit cycles lasted an average of
nine years. To gain greater insight, we separated
the credit cycle into three phases: downturn, repair/recovery and
expansion. We can track these phases using credit spreads and other measures of economic and corporate health. If the
past serves as a guide, then there could be another two years or more before the current cycle comes to its natural end. ”

http://www.schroders.com/en/SysGlobalAssets/digital/insights/pdfs/14-11-2014-mr.pdf

Comment by somedewd
2017-03-21 09:12:13

Would like to see an update of this analysis since the expected onset of QE unwind and rate hiking it roughly 2 years behind.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-21 10:00:00

Everything has a basic frequency. It’s the vectors that they ride on that will rise or sink you.

Comment by azdude
2017-03-21 12:32:47

without expanding credit and debt this economy goes into shitter bigtime.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-21 09:19:23

I know that many people believe that mortgage lending is crazy loose (based on Rocket Mortgage ads, some reports of subprime coming back, etc.).

CoreLogic produces a quarterly “Housing Credit Index” report, that looks at various factors (Credit Score, LTV, Debt to Income, Documentation Type, Occupancy Status, and Condo/Co-Op) to estimate the risk of default of loans made.

The Q4 report came out today. They put Q4’s reading at 44…2001 was 100, peak was approximately 124, and 44 is a lower reading than a year ago. They primarily attribute this to lower LTVs and DTI readings, due to many of the Q4 loans being refinances.

But, I’m NOT saying all is well. If you look at 4 of the 6 readings, they are approximately where they were in 2001–3 of those 4 are above the 2001 level (when the reading was 100).

Those that are above 2001’s level are:
LTVs over 95%
DTI share over 43
Non-Owner Occupant share.
Condo/Co-op share are just below 2001’s level.

The other two readings…credit score less than 640, and low/no-doc share, are still miniscule (10% or less the level in 2001).

So, if you believe that low credit scores and no-doc loans were the biggest problem, then you would be right to assume the current batch of mortgages are pretty safe.

If you believe that those two categories don’t matter as much as high DTI and high LTV, then the loans today are a bit more risky when they were in 2001.

One stat that they have that I haven’t seen before is the 1st percentile of credit score. The current reading is 628 and rising…this means that only 1% of borrowers have a credit score of 628 or less. This is about as high as it has been.

For perspective, in 2001, it was at 500.

The report is available to the public if you give your name/occupation/e-mail.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-21 09:56:49

This is a can’t see the forest for the trees thing.

The primary risk of default is the price paid.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2017-03-21 10:26:09

Right, which pretty much means you have to throw out the following, no?:

“They primarily attribute this to lower LTVs and DTI readings, due to many of the Q4 loans being refinances.”

Prices are higher *in spite* of “crazy loose lending” not being much of a factor. It follows that you have “LTVs over 95%.” I’m curious how much bigger the “non-owner occupant share is.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-21 11:27:26

I’m curious how much bigger the “non-owner occupant share is.

Looks like about 20% above where it was in 2001.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-21 11:28:57

LTVs over 95% approximately 30% higher on a proportionate basis as compared to 2001.

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Comment by oxide
2017-03-21 13:26:00

Blue, I believe the primary risk of default is DTI. Even if you paid a really high price, if you have the DTI to make the payments, it doesn’t matter what that price is.

But note, high DTI only means that you’re *able* to make the payments. It doesn’t address whether the buyer *chooses* to make the payments (strategic default) or whether the house itself was a good value.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-21 14:10:10

LTV IMHO matters more than DTI even. If you have a high DTI, but low LTV, your inability to pay the mortgage will unlikely result in any lender losses, or a foreclosure…you can always sell the house to get out from underneath it.

The combination of high LTV/high DTI are the riskiest loans, regardless of price paid. An auto repair, illness, etc. will put a lender in default and potential foreclosure, even if the market is OK.

I’d like to know what percentage of borrowers have BOTH a high LTV AND high DTI as compared to 2001…that would be telling.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-21 18:54:59

It is interesting that we can read this blog for a decade and have such different takeaways. Ben has commented many times that defaults correlate best with when in the price cycle people bought. It totally matters what the price paid was. The majority of those who bought in the last decade will be underwater in a 25% price decline, or something like that. There is a shock wave of defaults baked in the cake. You won’t see this if you are living in the mania.

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Comment by rms
2017-03-22 07:29:41

“You won’t see this if you are living in the mania.”

And you can’t discuss it with your other half.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-22 09:25:02

“defaults correlate best with when in the price cycle people bought”

This is logical and probably true, but it does not follow that today’s prices are such that they will result in the kind of foreclosure crisis that we had in 2008-2010, which seems to be what you are predicting.

We have seen prior cycles with prices as high as they are now (nationally), and we can see what such prices resulted in with respect to foreclosures.

Foreclosure rates peaked at 1.3% in 1987 (after a housing peak).
Foreclosure rates peaked at about 1.1% in the late 1990s (after the early 90’s housing peak–they got to 1% earlier in the 90’s, but 1.1% was the peak later in the 90’s).
The foreclosure rate was 3.3% in 2008, and I don’t think that was the peak–I’m pretty sure it went higher from there, but can’t put my finger on the data).

It is worth noting that the foreclosure rate was typically about 0.5% until the 1980s. Following 1980, the rate infrequently goes below 1%, and when it does, it only falls to 0.8% or 0.9%.

The only time high prices resulted in such a massive (and national) foreclosure crisis also coincided with no-doc, NINJA, option-ARMs, and terrible underwriting generally–which exacerbated price increases (far beyond a normal peak), AND added unstable borrowers into the mix.

 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-22 16:48:30

However it does result in falling prices and collapsing demand which is precisely what we’re observing.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-21 10:00:23

Shifting credit scoring systems, record subprime lending, foreclosure moratorium actions by every entity out there…..

Are you really paying attention my friend?

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-21 11:27:02

Remember my mention of the huge amount of new hotel building in Texas recently?

A Hotel Boom Comes to Texas
New York Times-20 hours ago
In 2017, Marriott plans to open eight hotels in Austin, seven in Houston and 23 in the … stadium, the area will include corporate office space, stores and housing.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-21 11:50:06

We had a hotel building boom here in flyover NY over the past two years. It’s apparently over now.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-21 11:46:39

Bluffview(Dallas), TX Housing Prices Crater 10% YoY

https://www.zillow.com/bluffview-dallas-tx/home-values/

Comment by azdude
2017-03-21 12:30:47

good day tan man

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-21 13:28:46

Data azdonk…. stick with the data.

Sherwood, OR Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY

https://www.zillow.com/sherwood-or/home-values/

 
 
 
Comment by azdude
2017-03-21 12:42:09

“when fiat becomes the wealth you know there are some serious illusions of value being created.”

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-03-21 15:38:38

Thundercat — Drunk (entire album):

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=llQ31DRgyx4

This was released a month ago, but it sounds like it was recorded in 1983, LOLZ.

 
Comment by phony scandals
2017-03-21 17:46:19

If you have a daughter who will attend public school do NOT move to or continue to live in Montgomery County Maryland where Rockville High is located.

Comment by rms
2017-03-21 18:22:17

Look who’s coming to dinner? :)

Comment by phony scandals
2017-03-21 20:35:25

google it

Comment by rms
2017-03-22 07:31:12

Yeah, saw the headline this morning. Major oops!

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Comment by phony scandals
2017-03-22 08:30:58

RIP

You made me laugh.

Chuck Barris (1929 - 2017)

 
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