The Roll Developers Have Been On Is Starting To Change
A report from Business Den in Colorado. “A 400-unit apartment complex in the Ballpark neighborhood sold this week for $126 million. Greenwood Village-based Griffis Residential bought Skye 2905 just north of Coors Field on Monday, city records show. Monogram Residential Trust, a Texas firm, was the seller. Jim DiRienzo, Griffis Residential’s VP of investment, said the company isn’t worried about a glut of residential units flooding the Union Station/Ballpark neighborhood. Long term, he said, people and businesses will keep moving in. ‘Our view of the Union Station neighborhood is that it’s sort of at its infancy,’ he said. ‘We think we can make it through the cycles.’”
“The 7-year-old complex sold for $315,000 per residential unit. The sale also includes the storefront of a ground-floor liquor store. The property last traded in April 2008 for $21 million, according to city records. Griffis Residential is funding its purchase in part with an $81.9 million loan from Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America.”
The Charlotte Observer in North Carolina. “Think you’re paying too much in rent? Chances are, you’re right. The Observer found the average rent for a two-bedroom place in Mecklenburg County increased $250 since 2011, making the payments a financial burden for more than 100,000 people. In some neighborhoods, the cost is much higher, effectively eliminating the areas from thousands of would-be renters. A study released last year by Abodo, an apartment-tracking firm, found 48 percent of renters in Charlotte met the definition of ‘cost-burdened.’”
“Igor Gorlatov and his wife and son, almost 3, recently upgraded from a one to a two-bedroom apartment in the McAlpine Creek area, to get ready for a baby on the way. His current rent, $1,035, is close to what he expected. But rent eats up about 60 percent of his monthly earnings as founder of a consulting startup. That’s twice the percentage of income that housing experts say households should spend on rent. ‘It is a big chunk of our expenses, of course,’ said Gorlatov, who runs Successful Negotiators Club. ‘It was a challenge to find the right place, and find a place that would accept not a regular income that your employer would give you, but my entrepreneurial status.’”
The Philadelphia Inquirer in Pennsylvania. “Philly rent has been climbing but the latest data from two major rental firms, Abodo and Zumper, show numbers falling locally in their March reports. According to Abodo, local monthly rents fell so precipitously last month, Philadelphia is at the top of its biggest decrease list. As usual, we can all breathe a sigh of relief that we don’t live in San Francisco or New York, where rental prices – which are down about 9 and 11 percent respectively from this time last year – are still about $3,000 a month.”
“With that said, it’s still worth mentioning that local rental rates remain north of the national average this month – no matter whose report you reference.”
From SF Curbed in California. “Rental site Zumper on Wednesday ranked Bay Area cities to see where median apartment prices had dropped the most year over year. Where things got interesting was the year-over-year comparison. Earliest this month, Zumper reported that they saw a huge nine percent decline in San Francisco prices since 2016. It turns out this was a region-wide trend: Median rents on Zumper are down 15 percent in Redwood City, Burlingame, and Emeryville, 13 percent in Santa Clara, 12 percent in South San Francisco, ten percent in Fremont, and nine percent in Mountain View.”
From Tulsa World in Oklahoma. “Steve Ganzkow, co-founder of Tulsa-based American Residential Group, was among the panelists who spoke at the 2017 Greater Tulsa Commercial Market Update. Among ARG’s most recent developments is The Edge at East Village, a downtown apartment community that opened last year. ‘The important thing is that people want that 24-hour lifestyle,’ Ganzkow said. ‘When they come home, they want to be able to walk out that door and go do something, whether it’s cultural or sit at a bar. … That’s where these things and these new thoughts and new plans and new ways of doing things are being done.’”
“Such housing, however, needs to become less costly, he said. The Edge’s price point is about $1.65 per square foot, Ganzkow said. Compared with projects in south Tulsa, developments downtown typically run 25 percent more, he said. ‘We have to create a product that is more affordable,” Ganzkow said. ‘I think the answer is going to be a public-private partnership. I know that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — that’s one of their goals. If they are going to stay in business, they have to figure out a way to provide a more affordable product for the developers to do that. It’s not just cut back on amenities. It’s going to be a whole capital-structure approach.’”
“He said the ‘roll’ the city has been on the past five to six years, however, is starting to change. ‘We’re currently experiencing a slowdown on a combination of job losses and increases in the supply of newly constructed apartments and renovated projects,’ Ganzkow said.”
From Multi-Housing News on Texas. “Houston’s multifamily market is still reeling from the oil price collapse in 2015, which resulted in thousands of job cuts and slowing investment activity. The outlook for multifamily is not favorable, since the development pipeline includes 58,000 units and the local economy remains unstable. With very low rent growth and an occupancy rate that lags the national average, absorption of the 18,700 apartments added in 2016 will be slow.”
“Transactions remain widespread across the metro, while upcoming development is focused on the West End/Downtown submarket—with 4,800 units under construction.”
‘The outlook for multifamily is not favorable, since the development pipeline includes 58,000 units’
This is the first time I’ve heard this number regarding Houston. Since I was just there, I’ll re-post this short video of a luxury complex just north of downtown:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCr0kVPTPfgQ9WHYvA4qB04g
Ugh. Those things still haunt me. What sort of rents are they charging for this luxe crap? They certainly can’t market it on being a “vibrant” neighborhood.
For perspective, here’s typical affordable complex in Aldine, near the airport, where a 2/2 is $725/mo:
https://www.apartments.com/la-quinta-houston-tx/blmj9t8/
And here’s a decent 2/1 SFH for the same $700/mo (4% down):
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14113-Sellers-Rd-Houston-TX-77060/27971252_zpid/
Hines multifamily exec: ‘It’s going to be a pretty rough 2017′
Houston Business Journal-10 hours ago
“It’s going to be a pretty rough 2017 because of all the supply hitting the market, specially in the high-rise sector. We don’t think it will get substantially better in …
What was that quote from not so long ago? 2008 is going to suck…the whole year. Or was it 2009?
I guess Hines is including his own supply, like The Southmore.
https://www.apartments.com/the-southmore-houston-tx/83thr60/
1-beds starting at $2100/month. In frappin’ Houston. But they’re offering 3 months free rent! Only for the first year of course. Then get ready to move. Oh well, at least the neighborhood is vibrant.
I guess everyone wants to live in vibrant, downtown Houston. /sarc
“They certainly can’t market it on being a “vibrant” neighborhood.”
Sure they will. Haven’t you ever seen those renderings they do before a complex is built, with all the faceless people out and about, presumably in love with their new “homes”? Those always end up in the rental office as marketing propaganda.
“1-beds starting at $2100/month.”
Hines doesn’t realize that the iPhone 7 Plus comes first.
<emHines doesn’t realize that the iPhone 7 Plus comes first.
What does the 7 do that the 6 doesn’t do?
“What does the 7 do that the 6 doesn’t do?”
The 7 lightens the end-user’s wallet more than the 6.
So in other words, nothing useful. It’s a status symbol, as are all Apple products.
“It’s a status symbol, as are all Apple products.”
Indeed. It seems like the peeps will starve before they let go of that iPhone.
‘Austin’s multifamily market continues to be a hotbed of activity, despite a growing sense of caution that rents and development are beginning to decelerate. Although demand remains strong—population has risen 12 percent since 2011—supply is a growing concern. More than 11,000 units came online in 2016, a 5.3 percent expansion of stock, well above the 2.5 percent national average.’
‘Amenities for high-rise buildings are generally culled from a well-honed list of known popular offerings—a lounge, gym, a pool, an outdoor deck, and grilling stations wouldn’t really lead anyone to blink an eyelash. Being LEED certified is often expected.’
‘At the 34-story, 298-unit Exhibit on Superior, amenities for the studio, convertible, and 1 to 3-bedroom units include those, as well as keyless entry with smartphone integration, stainless steel appliances, in-unit washer and dryer and more. Quite nice—but the downtown luxury apartment market glut has led to an arms race to attract new residents and keep rents from being slashed.’
‘Developer Magellan Development Group and MAC Management wanted to bring some artistry and magic to their building (and to their other properties, if this catches on).’
‘A contest is open for the best acoustic guitarist and vocalist to live and play for one year at Exhibit on Superior. The winning musician gets free rent at an unfurnished studio for a year, the title of Musician in Residence, and the chance to hone their skills while playing against any number of cool nooks and spaces in the bKL Architecture-designed building. The residents get in-house live entertainment and bragging rights to live in a building with the first so-called Exhibit A-Lister.’
“This program will create a destination where residents and friends can come to unwind and be entertained,” says Jim Losik, National Marketing Director, Magellan Development Group. Residents can hear the musician in the fifth floor amenity space, which is performance-ready. Just pick your perch from any of the seating areas you see.’
It used to be that Chicago required all high rises to have elevator operators, even after elevators were fully automated. Maybe now they’ll require every high rise to employ resident musicians, pet groomers, masseuses and yoga instructors.
There is some value in having an in-house yoga studio and gym. Changing in and out of clothing and trucking back and forth to a gym takes time away from all the other amenities, not to mention the safety issues. Some years ago I was walking home from a yoga studio located 4 blocks from my apt at ~ 9pm. I was wearing shorts/t-shirts/sandals, and not really skimpy. Got propositioned anyway, even in that short distance.
I was wearing shorts/t-shirts/sandals, and not really skimpy. Got propositioned anyway, even in that short distance.
On the plus side, at least you know you still have it
“Got propositioned anyway, even in that short distance.”
Exercise does a libido good.
‘rent eats up about 60 percent of his monthly earnings as founder of a consulting startup. ‘It was a challenge to find the right place, and find a place that would accept not a regular income that your employer would give you, but my entrepreneurial status’
Here’s an example of something I’ve uncovered a few times: some of these guys brag that these new rich renters will gladly pay 60% or more of their income in rent. OK, so if I’m a lender I’m thinking you are setting your self up for trouble. But, if the lender is a gullible teachers pension fund, what the heck! Drinks are on Igor.
When I read “consulting startup” I was imagining something different than making $1725 a month at a place called Successful Negotiators Club.
‘It is a big chunk of our expenses, of course,’ said Gorlatov, who runs Successful Negotiators Club. ‘It was a challenge to find the right place, and find a place that would accept not a regular income that your employer would give you, but my entrepreneurial status.’”
I’ve been trying to get people to accept my entrepreneurial status for years. What’s his secret?
It’s a small club. And you ain’t in it.
Having enough money to pay for what you are buying can sometimes be a hard concept to sell.
I’ve been dragging my feet about retirement for a while. My next career is art and adventure. I found out today that my high school best friend is on his deathbed. Sad story of unemployment, foreclosure and depression followed on by medical problems. He has given up living. I’m not “that old” but most of my lifelong friends are already goners.
I have a meeting with my employer in two weeks to hammer out the details. I am so going to retire now. It will be frugal. I know how to do that. It starts now.
I will have to come up with some creative answers to Border Patrol when they ask the standard question: “What do you do?”
Sorry to hear of your friend. I heard yesterday that a former teacher of mine (who was a pretty young teacher when I had her), recently died of ALS.
Sounds like you are planning some travel, which is good…I have watched my parents and my in-laws retire differently. For having relatively modest means, my parents travel a lot, and my in-laws do not. For my in-laws, it is now too late (my FIL is in his mid-80’s and not doing well–we may have had our last Christmas with him).
The best concept I heard about planning travel is to NOT choose your destination first, but to instead look for the ridiculous deals on airfare (off season, strange travel days, long layovers, etc.), and THEN spend your time exploring what would be interesting to see in that destination.
I think I could find something interesting to explore pretty much anywhere around the world.
I have a boat friend. I won’t be taking any airplanes.
Yes, wait until your old girlfriends start to pass away. Unnerving, sad, and poignant. I knew these women when we were young, vibrant, and alive.
Then you have all of your uncles, aunts, parents,and a brother, sister, or cousin pass.
I’m retiring and going sailing, too. Living forever is not going to happen, and work is SO overrated. See you “living on the hook” Blue Skye.
Regards,
Roidy
Yes, wait until your old girlfriends start to pass away. Unnerving, sad, and poignant. I knew these women when we were young, vibrant, and alive.
Then you have all of your uncles, aunts, parents,and a brother, sister, or cousin pass.
I’m retiring and going sailing, too. Living forever is not going to happen, and work is SO overrated. See you “living on the hook” Blue Skye.
Regards,
Roidy
Of course, you can avoid much of that if you die young yourself.
There’s a certain amount of living in the “now” that I try to do, not only because I’m convinced that the future will be much different than today, but because traveling and other energetic activities can best be enjoyed when you still have the energy to do them.
‘There’s a certain amount of living in the “now”’
You got that right. I just heard from someone, not even 50 yet, great business and family, they got diagnosed with early onset Alzheimer’s. That’s the second person I’ve heard of having that in about 6 months. Pretty scary stuff, called Pick’s disease more specifically.
Yes, wait until your old girlfriends start to pass away.
I can’t say that I’ve kept in touch with any of mine. Sometimes the past is best left in the past.
I just heard from someone, not even 50 yet, great business and family, they got diagnosed with early onset Alzheimer’s.
I know far too many people, who appeared to be healthy, who dropped dead in their 40’s.
“His current rent, $1,035, is close to what he expected. But rent eats up about 60 percent of his monthly earnings as founder of a consulting startup.”
6 Facts You Need to Know About Starting Your Own Consulting Business
3. You’re probably not charging enough.
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/242956
$1725 is barely the $500/week that the Goon Squad in the Apt used to talk about. This guy may as well be delivering pizza.
“Here’s an example of something I’ve uncovered a few times: some of these guys brag that these new rich renters will gladly pay 60% or more of their income in rent.”
Call me old fashioned, but if you’re paying 60% or more of your income in rent, then you’re not rich.
I winced when I saw the story about Igor paying that much for rent. Igor may call himself an entrepreneur, but he needs to find himself real job that pays more than $20k a year.
The local article stated that the average 2BR rent in Charlotte is $1,090, which is about 25% of the median household income. The issue is that all this new product coming out of the ground is “luxury housing”, so the lower income folks (like Igor) don’t have a lot of choices when it comes to lower rent apartments.
“so the lower income folks (like Igor) don’t have a lot of choices when it comes to lower rent apartments.”
Was there ever a time when there were lot of choices when it came to lower rent apartments?
Igor is destined to fail. He’s paying 50% more than he needs for a 2 bed/2 bath in a given school district. Not sure how a father puts his family at risk like that.
The article is cherry picking the most expensive areas of Charlotte to profile. Homes, apt, condos, and anything else in that area are ridiculously expensive. In a city run by bankers, with NEasterners fleeing to lower prices and better weather, unsustainable appreciation is expected. While harder to find, well priced housing is available for the diligent. Hoping the upcoming crash makes
Well, here they are: http://www.successfulnegotiators.com/the-team/
Originally from Belarus, Igor moved to Charlotte in 2016 after falling in love with the USA when studying marketing on a Fulbright Scholarship. As the founder of one of leading web development and digital marketing companies in Belarus (TANIX.BY), Igor was invited to be an adjunct professor in the MBA program at Belarusian State University. His success as a lecturer for business students led to him being promoted to the position of MBA Program Director… He was also involved in international negotiations as a simultaneous interpreter for various organizations,
Sounds like Igor isn’t half-bad, compared to other startup guru bunnies. But with such a promising career in Belarus, why come to the US to scrape by? IMO he would do better to just be a full-time translator.
‘A 400-unit apartment complex in the Ballpark neighborhood sold this week for $126 million…The property last traded in April 2008 for $21 million’
Ring ring!
Hello?
Miss Bifocal?
Speaking!
This is Jim Smoothtalker from Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America. Do you have a minute?
Oh sure, me and some of the girls are planning our all-expense cruise to the Cara-bino.
Have you already bought the tickets?
1 - 120 / 2500
https://denver.craigslist.org/search/hhh?query=free+rent&availabilityMode=0
Two months free rent looks fairly common.
315K per unit in Denver. Wow.
Denver is a dump.
You keep saying Denver is a dump. Maybe it’s really nice and you don’t want any more newcomers to clog up the roads.
I agree, Denver is the OC without the beaches, jobs and good weather.
No, it’s a dump. I lived there for years and couldn’t wait to get out.
It also doesn’t have Disneyland!
OC is a dump too. That was an insult.
“Denver is a dump.”
Everywhere is a dump if you know where to look just like all families are fuqed up it’s just that some hide it better than others.
^
Palo Alto, CA Rental Rates Plunge 8% YoY On Ballooning Housing Inventory
https://www.zillow.com/palo-alto-ca/home-values/
If tapped-out ‘Murican consumers can’t afford retail, how are they going to buy your overpriced shack, Greedheads?
http://theantimedia.org/retail-apocalypse-officially-america/
How much is due to ever increasing consumer debt and how much is people just buying things on line?
Take a few minutes to look at the women on the streets and it’s easy to see why women’s apparel is taking a real hit. Any women who is not working in a six-figure office dresses like total slop, at work or out and about. Leggings and flip-flops everywhere. Or maybe sweatpants or old-lady pants. Nothing matching at all. And regardless of weight. It’s not a pretty sight.
It’s not a pretty sight ??
Maybe todays woman feel enough personal self worth that they are not concerned about what other people (particularly men) think about how they dress or look…
dresses like total slop, at work or out and about ??
Kind of like the men have been doing for decades….
Maybe todays woman feel enough personal self worth that they are not concerned about what other people (particularly men) think about how they dress or look…
I have been told by women, that women dress up to impress other women.
I think that some of that “slobby” look women have embraced is actually fashionable, especially the yoga pants and leggings.
And FWIW, other than those in sales, the ladies at the office don’t dress up all that formally, though they aren’t quite as casual as the guys, especially in summer when we really get casual.
Whatever the reason for the slop dressing, slop dressing is cheap dressing. Leggings, tank tops, flip flops are $8-10 each at Wally World. Nobody is paying $58 for some casual button-down shirt at Talbots.
“…that women dress up to impress other women.”
Not to impress them… to pretentiously rub their nose in it.
Retail is dead. The corpse is decaying slowly. The question is what to do with all the underlying real estate? There’s a mall up north called Collin Creek. That place is a good example of the death of retail.
There was a vacant mall a while back that prior to being scraped, the owners let artists use it as studio and exhibit space. The exchange was free rent for the artist, but they had to open their space and exhibit on the weekends or something like that.
I believe the old mall in Boulder was bulldozed and the space was used for building super pricey condos.
Retail is dead. The corpse is decaying slowly ??
I have heard many analysts suggest that the USA is 50% over retailed…
The question is what to do with all the underlying real estate ??
Back to orchard & farm land in many locations…
I suppose that some of those empty storefronts can be repurposed for non retail business.
Rackspace’s corporate HQ I believe is a shopping mall they got cheap.
The number of retail square feet per capital will fall…population is growing, and the repurposing of retail has begun.
I think that the first spaces to die are going to be 2nd/3rd+ choice malls and non-grocery anchored centers in any particular MSA. That represents a lot of space.
If you have the dominant mall/shopping center in a market, you will be in for a bumpy ride, but will be OK at the end of the day. There just aren’t many properties that qualify as “dominant”.
As a kid, I remember going to large shopping centers that may have had a 50k square foot grocery store, but then also had another +/-200k square feet of small shops and medium-sized boxes (JC Penny, shoe stores, etc.).
I think what we will see is that the grocery is OK, but that the 200k square feet shrink to 25-50k square feet of restaurants and service businesses (medical, human/animal grooming, UPS store to return your Amazon package, tax preparer, wealth advisors, etc.). The other 150k+ square feet will be knocked down and/or converted to multi-family/storage, etc. So, instead of 250k square feet of retail overall, you will have much less space at the same location.
The dominant centers, while I think they will survive, won’t be without turmoil…the footprint of their stores are going to shrink. As store footprints shrink, owners are going to need to demise new spaces, and attract tenants from secondary/tertiary centers that are dying.
So, dominant centers will have more retailers, but occupying less space on average, and secondary and tertiary centers will shrink by A LOT or die.
ISTR reading that retailers that have a physical presence in a market sell more product online than in markets where they have no physical presence. So, I don’t think we are going to see retailers completely disappear. However, they are going to be MUCH more selective about how many physical stores they have, and where they are located.
http://www.lagranplazamall.com/en-us/
Turn it into a Mexican mall, where most of the businesses only take cash.
https://www.yelp.com/biz/la-gran-plaza-de-fort-worth-fort-worth-2
Wow. Imagine what an ICE truck would do to the place…
Retail is dead.
The U.S. economy is roughly 70% consumerism. Remember when Dubya sent everyone a check? I used mine toward principal on the mortgage.
2banana’s Rule: Long term democrat rule + public unions + FSA = misery, ruin and bankruptcy
Lord help you if you own a house there.
—
Chicago area sees greatest population loss of any major U.S. city, region in 2015
The young couple’s continued residency in Chicago was threatened by new obstacles every few months. First came the rising property taxes, then the stress of finding a decent school for their 2-year-old son in a neighborhood they could afford.
“I used to enjoy Illinois and the area,” he said. “But everyday there’s a reason to not want to stay here. Between (Gov. Bruce) Rauner and (House Speaker Michael) Madigan, how will the state ever fix its pension problem? To me it seems unfixable, and I don’t want to have to pay for it.”
The loss of residents over the last 20 years translates to about $50 billion in lost taxable income, and about $8 billion each year in lost state and local tax revenues, Lucci said.
“Frankly, we have this state budget problem, and it would be a lot less of a problem if we had all these people,” he said. “Growth makes problems better, out-migration makes problems worse.”
“People are leaving Illinois because we rank near the bottom in job growth in the Midwest and have among the highest property taxes in America,” Catherine Kelly, a spokeswoman for Rauner, wrote in an emailed statement. “We have to make structural changes in Illinois to ensure talented people — many of whom run businesses — stay in Illinois to help grow the economy and improve our state’s future.”
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-chicago-population-record-loss-met-20160324-story.html
and it all goes back to the exponential yearly cost increases in pensions…..almost all of the deficit
Bingo,they get pensions w colas and u don’t
Woodland, WA Housing Prices Crater 11% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/woodland-wa/home-values/
Interesting Baltimore stats:
1) March 23, 2017, Baltimore Sun: “The city posted the third largest population loss of any big U.S. county in raw numbers (6,738), according to a report from the Census Bureau, and the second largest in percentage terms (1.1 percent), but it wasn’t an outlier.” — http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/editorial/bs-ed-baltimore-population-loss-20170323-story.html
2) House prices continue increasing on declining sales and declining population: https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/Baltimore-Maryland/market-trends/
My opinion: Speculators, low but increasing interest rates playing a significant role in that market.
Reason is that southeast Baltimore is growing, probably +20,000 and central district is also doing ok. The other 7 districts are very likely all losing population.
So, the sales #s reflect new construction and rehabs in SE while most of the depopulated areas are resulting in vacant homes, not sales.
BTW, our family will be moving to either Fallston or Churchville by this time next yr. Reliably red and rural areas with good recreation and youth sports. SE Baltimore was great for childless 20s times though.
Great to see you Joe, good to see the little one is healthy too.
Gov in my county can retire at age 55 w 75% of pay
I remember when ballimer had white segregation
Italian hood,polish,Irish
Somebody on this blog with a Baltimore background turned me on to Old Bay. I don’t remember who that was, but thank you.
I’ve tried Old Bay seasoning once, it was OK, nothing out of this world.
Hmmm… Churchville looks pretty but the houses appear a bit pricey. $300-400K for older stuff, $450K for new the usual 2400 sq ft McMansionized colonials. I guess that’s the price to pay on the Route 1/I-95 corridor.
Hey Donk
Flower Mound, TX Housing Prices Crater 7% YoY
http://www.movoto.com/flower-mound-tx/market-trends/
Why Chinese investors keep buying Australian property: it’s cheap
Analysis
By finance reporter Stephen Letts
It is said real estate is all about “position, position, position”.
Perspective could equally be thrown into the equation as well, and from the perspective of China’s rapidly growing millionaire class, Australian capital city properties are not only cheap, but high-yielding as well.
Detailed analysis from the big broking house Credit Suisse has found that despite the hurdles to Chinese investment in Australian property constantly being raised, it is still seen as good value.
Perhaps the starkest statistic from the perspective of value is the fact that the median price for a two-bedroom apartment in Shanghai is around $900,000, which is 25 per cent more than the median apartment price in Sydney.
Then there is the issue of rental yield.
In Shanghai, rental yields average around 1.5 per cent, half what a landlord of an equivalent property in Sydney would get.
“Yes, our property is expensive when we compare it to our own history, but it is cheap when compared to Chinese property,” Credit Suisse strategist Hasan Tevfik noted.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-24/why-chinese-investors-keep-buying-australian-property/8385174
Yeah, that’s why 80% of them are FB’s.
What’s an FB?
Normally threads this old are never looked at again but I happened to be going through it after a vacation, so here’s your answer: effed buyer/borrower.
Thanks!
Katy, TX Housing Prices Crater 4% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/katy-tx/home-values/
Thirty-eight percent of jobs in the U.S. are at high risk of being replaced by robots and artificial intelligence over the next 15 years, according to a new report by PwC.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/24/technology/robots-jobs-us-workers-uk/index.html
If this comes to pass, it will be seismic. 38% of the workforce could lose their jobs. Only some of those workers will be retrainable for new higher skilled jobs. And those who can migrate upward will create downward pressure on salaries as more people compete for the remaining jobs.
As global unemployment swells I expect to see the case made for universal guaranteed income. I also expect that it will replace what we know as welfare and that unlike welfare it won’t be indexed on how many dependents you have, so in other words it will give people an incentive to not reproduce. I could even see it possibly tied to being childless: have a kid and you lose it.
Technology should increase our standard of living. To conclude that 40% of the people will become newly jobless is to assume that all the gains go to the rentier class, who will then willingly pay the jobless to do nothing.
If this comes to pass something will have to give, as the overwhelming majority of working adults could be unemployed and be unemployable. Half the population has an IQ of under 100. Those people cannot be retrained to be coders, enhgineers, medical professionals, or anything else STEMish.
I don’t know if PWC’s numbers are legit or whether 15 years is a realistic time frame (I think it will take longer). But I could see the day when a Walmart or any other retailer only has a few managers onsite at any time and all other tasks are are automated. A lot of tasks will have to be re-engineered to allow this. That way things are packed and loaded into trucks would have to change, the way they are displayed will have to change, the way a store is laid out, etc.
As to how a universal income would be financed is a very good question. As some here have said, welfare is paid to protect the wealthy, not to help the poor. Perhaps the money will simply be conjured out of thin air and backed up by the AI’s productivity.
Still early to say whether it will be willingly or not and whether it will be to do nothing or something. But the former working class will eat something. If you are rich your first goal should be that it’s not you.
I actually owned an industrial robot arm, but sold it.
When there are used industrial robot arms (they’re not hard to make, either), then the small guy can produce as well?
What about 3d printing, once that technology improves?
What about it? I’ve worked in product development for a long time, and it’s excellent for making models and sample pieces to give the customer something to hold and feel.
But you have this pesky little issue of the strength of materials - there is a darn good reason why jet engine blades are made by investment casting, and other parts by broaching, and other parts by sintering, forging, stamping, hydroforming, injection molding, and so on.
I don’t see 3D printing replacing any of these other manufacturing methods for that one reason.
As members of Congress in Washington debate raising the minimum required to obtain a US immigrant investor visa from US$500,000 to US$1.35 million…
“Some clients are demanding that we make sure their applications are submitted before April 28”, the date the programme expires..
“Our suggestion to the client is to open three to four personal accounts in the US or line up three to four friends’ accounts, so they can split the money and wire it to different personal accounts without being put on a blacklist by the Chinese authorities,” said a Shanghai-based REAL ESTATE AGENT.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2082367/rich-chinese-rush-get-us-investor-visas-costs-may-soar