March 26, 2017

A Glittering Monument To Oversupply

A report from the Journal Sentinel in Wisconsin. “On a recent Friday, Shorewest Realtor Beth Jaworski listed a three-bedroom, 1½-bathroom Dutch colonial house with a single-car garage in a popular Wauwatosa neighborhood for $289,900. By Sunday night that same weekend, the house had five offers from buyers. It sold for $315,000. ‘I’ve never seen it quite like this,’ said Jaworski, who has been selling residential real estate for almost 25 years. ‘You can put a property on the market, and literally within hours, you’ll have 15 to 25 showings scheduled.’”

“That seller’s market deal in Wauwatosa — and many others like it — shows how hot the metro Milwaukee climate for existing home sales has become. ‘It’s definitely a starving market, meaning that there’s so little inventory,’ said Bob Larson, a broker First Weber Realtors. ‘I’ve been in the business quite some time and I’ve seen a lot of buyer’s markets and I’ve seen seller’s markets. I’ve never seen one quite like this.’”

The Herald Leader on Kentucky. “Did you hear the one about the woman selling a $140,000 home in Kenwick who was besieged with home hunters wanting to see her house? Or about home sellers who are getting offers before their house has shown up on the Multiple Listing Service of real estate for sale? These Anecdotes are not just being heard in Lexington. In Versailles, Realtor Jeri Hartley said that in a recent four-day period, she put three houses on the market, and they all sold in the first 12 hours. ‘They go extremely quickly,’ Hartley said. ‘There are a lot of buyers from last year, … waiting to pounce just as soon as one comes on the market.’”

“Susan Speckert, executive director of the Fayette Alliance, said Lexington’s low housing inventory is not unique. The alliance supports sustainable growth in Lexington through land-use advocacy. ‘Though this is a nationwide phenomenon, there are some who will try to use low inventory as an argument to expand our urban services boundary to build more houses,’ Speckert said via email. ‘This is an illogical argument that ignores the facts. There are over 5,600 acres of vacant land and thousands more acres of underutilized land available for development inside the urban service boundary. Lack of available land is not the cause of the current housing inventory.’”

The Stockton Record in California. “The cities of Manteca, Tracy, Lathrop and Mountain House are seeing revived homebuilding. Not Stockton. All those cities are closer to the Bay Area. So regional trends may explain the disparity. John Beckman, head of a developer’s group, says Stockton has an ‘acute’ shortage of 9,890 homes — his figure — and there’s no way to build subdivisions big enough without bringing more acreage into the city.”

“Eric Parfrey, the Sierra Club litigant, says there is no housing shortage. The city already approved 19,000 yet-to-be built homes, at least. Assuming a growth rate of 500 homes a year, that is enough for 38 years of growth, or 15 years beyond the General Plan’s 2040 horizon.”

“‘I think that there is a substantial amount of housing that can be built within the limits of Stockton as they exist now,’ said Tom Pace, Stockton’s Deputy Community Development director, ‘traditional infill — a vacant lot downtown — as well as large-scale master-planned communities annexed into the city not yet constructed.’”

The New Canaan Advertiser in Connecticut. “Anyone who follows New Canaan’s real estate market could tell you when it comes to single family homes, the $1-million to $3-million range is where most of the activity happens in town. But with signs of a strong 2017 spring market, observers have noted the year kicked off with strong January numbers in the below $1-million range. Mary Higgins, a realtor with Halstead Property in New Canaan who offered the latest figures, attributes the uptick to signs of a turn-around after a slow 2016.”

“‘There were a number of price corrections in 2016, said Higgins. Many sellers started to get a more realistic view of what their home would sell for and dropped their price. Those adjustments are paying off.”

“A realtor for 40 years (36 in New Canaan), Kathy Tanner is seeing buyers getting smarter and savvier. Instead of offering a lower bid and going through a lot of negotiations to get a better price on a house, they are waiting for the price to come down and jumping in. ‘I think people are more realistic,’ said Tanner of sellers. ‘Some of the houses were priced higher in the market last fall and they have reduced them.’”

The Miami New Times in Florida. “Miami real-estate analyst Andrew Stearns releases a report about the health of the city’s condominium market four times per year. In the past year, Stearns’ predictions for the city’s ‘preconstruction’ condo market have gone from bad to worse to, as of yesterday, apocalyptic. Stearns has warned for close to 12 months that Miami property brokers can’t sell all the new condos that developers are building. But in a new report issued yesterday, Stearns officially labels Miami’s units for sale that haven’t yet been built as ‘distressed.’”

“‘The preconstruction condo resale market will likely continue to weaken as more units are delivered into the distressed market,’ Stearns writes. ‘Building inventory and declining sales usually result in downside pricing pressure. Preconstruction condo developers, flippers, and existing condo resellers should expect pricing pressure to accelerate.’”

“Stearns includes a gulp-inducing chart in his report, which shows condo sales have slumped like a black-diamond ski slope, right as inventory has hit an all-time high. Now buildings are sitting on the market for months or years with empty units. The Crimson Miami in Edgewater, for example, is still 34 percent empty despite the fact that construction ended in December 2015. Rise at Brickell City Centre is still 54 percent empty. Construction was completed there in September 2016.”

“Brickell, which has been so rapidly infused with condo buildings postrecession that the towers now blot out the sun at ground level, seems to be getting hit the hardest in terms of unsold inventory. The neighborhood is a glittering monument to oversupply.”

“‘Developers may resort to mark-down liquidations or bulk sales of unsold condo units as the cycle progresses, and time will tell how doing so will affect the preconstruction or existing resale market,’ Stearns writes. ‘The built-in, developer-owned inventories, which are expected to increase as we get deeper into this cycle, come at a time with massive increase in existing condo inventories and slumping sales in the overall Miami-Dade condo market.’”

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-26 11:41:18

Camarillo, CA Housing Prices Crater 11% YoY

Comment by phony scandals
2017-03-26 19:31:41

Frank Zappa - Camarillo Brillo×3iRg

Comment by doom
2017-03-26 12:24:29

Under $350k yes it is a hot market in most of America, but many areas have homes well over $350k and if over $500k than the story is very different. Overall, still a many hurdles in the housing new and resale market. Of course, the NAR always says everything is great even in 2008, they never post delisted or just plain left the market because sellers just couldn’t get a buyer or the offers were very low.
While we are talking about the RE industry, when is somebody going to challenge them about there crazy 6-7% commission for agents who can’t read a contact, let alone sell property, this is what irks me, about 95% shouldn’t be in the business.

Comment by oxide
2017-03-26 16:06:37

HBB doesn’t like my beating this very alive horse, but, no bank is offering interest-only or negative amortization mortages anymore. Therefore the buyer has to pay fully amortized PITI. $350K is about the maximum price someone can offer and still make that fixed-rate fully amortized PITI on income.

0% down, or the ever-shifting definition of subprime, or isolated offers for ARM loans are irrelevant. Even if Mel Watts allows you to buy a house at 0% down and 500 FICO subprime, that PITI payment is $X/month on Day 1. Unlike 2006, you can’t get “into” a house and live for 3 years on 1/2 the real PITI and then sell or refi out of it. Even an ARM won’t decrease the payment much because interest are already very low and an ARM won’t lower them much more. So $350K is a hard ceiling for the average medium SFH.

btw, $315K for 3/1.5 is Wisconsin is outrageous. That’s not much less than the same size house in the some burbs of wealthy DC.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-26 16:14:13


The 7, 10, 15 and 30 year mortgage structure is Pick-A-Payment/SubPrime financing by definition.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-26 17:59:48

By whose definition? Yours?

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Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-26 18:43:57

Data my good friend. Stick with the data.

Carrollton, VA Housing Prices Crater 16% YoY On Plunging Housing Demand

Comment by In Colorado
2017-03-27 13:52:30

You still makeup your definitions.

And your “data” is at best a joke. You’ve been publishing rubbish like this all through the bubble, saying prices are “cratering” when in fact prices were rising, even higher than in the previous bubble. It’s impossible to take you seriously.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-27 14:52:08

Boots on the ground data my good friend. Boots on the ground data.

Louisville, CO Housing Prices Plummet 17% YoY On Ballooning Housing Inventory

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-26 16:33:32

‘$315K for 3/1.5 is Wisconsin is outrageous’

And it didn’t take interest only loans to get there, did it? Nor in Miami Beach, where they have a stupendous bubble. Lowering loan standards is an indicator of scraping the bottom of the barrel and nothing more. Sure it makes things worse, but there are bubbles all over the planet under every conceivable loan arrangement. What makes a loan go bad is at what price it is made more than the nuts and bolts of how it works. Subprime just went into default first, and it certainly wasn’t contained. Now we see FHA loans starting to default. Sound familiar?

Comment by Taxpayers
2017-03-26 17:36:08

They tax you hard in Wisconsin

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-03-27 00:02:50

Subprime just went into default first, and it certainly wasn’t contained.

But… but… but… I have it on very good authority that it will be contained…

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Comment by oxide
2017-03-27 04:12:12

I agree, we didn’t need I/Os to get to $315K+. All we need is two $50K spouses ($100K household) spending 41% of their income on housing. It’s doable, but difficult, and so it’s a ceiling. However, in order to bid up that $315K to, say, $385K, we *would* need an I/O.

Since almost nobody is originating or buying I/Os or neg-ams, we’re scraping the bottom of a much shallower barrel than we did in 2006. However, that’s for the end consumer loans. The other barrel that we are scraping is the infestor barrel. Infestors are getting really cheap money. So while your young Millenial couple bids up to $315K but then has to give up and keep looking, an infestor with some cash can bid up to that $385K and rent out the young couple, or to a few generations of walk-in/anchor/visaoverstays.

The bubbles in Miami Beach are a totally different animal. They overbuilt f-ing floating money-boxes in the sky to host the Chinese. Now they are running out of Chinese.

Subprime went into default first because they got in last and had the shortest grace period. A high-FICO buyer would buy in 2005 and get a three-year I/O. He was good until 2008. A low-FICO buyer gets “into” a house mid-2007 with a 6-month neg-am. Of course the low-FICO would default first, a full year before the high-FICO. So the contagion didn’t exactly “spread” from subprime to prime. It was all mixed in the cake batter from the beginning. The primes just took a little longer to bake.

It doesn’t surprise me that FHA is starting to default. i suspect that what is really killing people are FHA fees and HOA fees. Those couples — and Mel Watts too — are calculating their budgets based only on income vs. PITI. The buyers happily move in… only to find that they have to pony up another $250 in FHA fees and $250 in HOA fees. You posted an article on HOA, Ben. Tampa is especially hit hard. Folks are paying a high price for a low down payment and a dirty crowded pool.

HOA is a dark horse. They used to be generally limited to condos. Now, even SFH has them. All those “experts” — which Ben posted about the other day — didn’t grow up with HOAs, and so aren’t figuring them into their formulas.

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Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-27 09:01:57

“Those couples — and Mel Watts too — are calculating their budgets based only on income vs. PITI. The buyers happily move in… only to find that they have to pony up another $250 in FHA fees and $250 in HOA fees.”

And don’t forget losses to depreciation at $2-$3/square foot per year.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-03-26 23:59:21

Therefore the buyer has to pay fully amortized PITI.

If they choose not to make the payments, then the buyer doesn’t “have to” pay the fully amortized PITI, do they?

Many made that choice the last go-around; what makes you so such they will choose differently this time around?

Comment by oxide
2017-03-27 04:15:56

Because they won’t get that loan in the first place, Primey. Banks actually look at income now, not just FICO. So, either the buyers will be honest about their limits and simply give up on bidding, or they will offer anyway and then the bank will turn down the loan. They can’t jingle mail the keys if they don’t have the keys.

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Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-27 08:08:34

“Banks actually look at income now”


Banks might but most mortgages are third party and they’re all “no income verification” and “no appraisal”.

Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-27 15:18:30

“no income verification” and “no appraisal”


Comment by Neuromance
2017-03-27 19:21:09

oxide: Even if Mel Watts allows you to buy a house at 0% down and 500 FICO subprime, that PITI payment is $X/month on Day 1.

Interesting side effect of this is that someone who is debt-indifferent “buys” the house, and soon is foreclosed upon. That takes the house off the market for a few years, and upon its reappearance, it’s picked up by investors. Not sure if the NAR gets a cut or not, which really is the only thing which might change the system.

This suppresses non-distressed inventory. It’s what I think I’m seeing in Maryland. I saw one listing which said there was someone living in the house and it would be up to the buyer to take posssession. So some clown gets the house, stops paying and is daring someone to try and remove him. Good system.

I don’t really get the social purpose of the 0% down (other than the obvious, FIRE sector profit).

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
Comment by serling
2017-03-26 13:11:50

(….long time lurker here,only posted a couple of times)

Want to thank everyone here for the comments here.

I wanted to buy in 2002 but even then the prices seemed crazy to me. I wondered if I was the only one. Then I found this blog.

A couple of comments I heard at a dinner last night. Somebody bought a house in Roxbury, MA last year for 500K. I thought that price was crazy but then in just one year the house was went to 800K. I was in Roxbury once but according to someone there Roxbury got ‘nice.’ It is Dorchester that is still bad. Everybody there thought the price increase was great.

One person has a relative that moved from New York to Grosse Ponte Michigan. She says a lot of people from New York are doing that.

Today I stopped at an open house. From realtor found out it was purchased last year by an investor who filled in the collapsing pool, repainted, refinished the hardwood floors (not the greatest job), did the grainiteel in the kitchen and put in some track lighting - which did not go well in a house built in 1903.

I check for things that are NOT readily apparent-like how are the floors handled in closets (dirty or rugs in them), poorly finished inside or not very well There were 2 cracked window panes, cheap plastic electrical outlet covers, some covers missing, some bad paint jobs - one room had paint spray on the closet door knob, both sides. The was even a haze on the floor (blue something - not wood, carpet, tile or linoleum). I do not know how someone would get into the Jacuzzi tub on the 3rd floor master as the ceiling slanted down so sharply onto the tub area. One of the master bedroom closets had a piece of insulation attached to the inside door. The nice wooden staircase had been painted black and white.

The steps to the ‘finished’ lower level were incredibly steep, covered in worn Berber. With a sump pump down there I would be concerned with the potential for damage to the 2 finished rooms.

On busy road.

Went home and looked up history. Some highlights-
Sold 1991 for 155K, mortgage 130K
Remortgaged multiple times, one getting 400K, not sure what was finally owed
2014 - listed for sale for 625K reduced to 495K,pending sale then removed
2016 -listed at 460K sold at foreclosure for 410K
2017-listed for 560K, went pending for 560K, then re-listed for 580K, then ‘reduced’ to 560K.

There were plenty of lookers. I took a copy of the brochure. No mention of taxes.
Oh taxes almost 9K/year.

I have no dog in the race in this area. New England is too cold and the taxes are too high. I plan to eventually move south. Meanwhile I just observe. Sometimes I think I am the only sane one here as the prices get higher and higher. I thought there we going to decrease after 2005. Hey I can rent for the rest of my life.

Speaking of renting and those new ‘luxury’ places, checked out a newly built ‘luxury’ apartment complex here. All utilities are extra. The lowest rental on a one bedroom apartment approximately 780 feet is 1,600/month. Frankly I didn’t see much luxury. There was a room to store your bike, if you wanted a separate storage area it was 50/month. If you wanted a garage it was 200 month. It had the stainless steel appliances ( Whirlpool), granite countertops, stackable washer/dryer, and a microwave(also stainless steel. I could afford only the ‘low income’ rent so I don’t know how the low income people could actually afford to live there.

I went home to my one bedroom apartment, built @1900 that rents for about 60 percent of that one and includes water. Oh I did have to buy my own microwave and side by side washer and dryer.

So again thanks for all the great comments.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-26 14:17:06

“I wanted to buy in 2002 but even then the prices seemed crazy to me.”

Prices had already doubled then some by that time. In retrospect, you did the right thing. You don’t want to be paying huge prices for these money pits.

Comment by oxide
2017-03-27 05:07:23

Utilities are almost always extra. The only apts I have seen with utilities included are pre-1980s high-rises where it is prohibitively expensive to backfit meters on all the common piping. For every other apt I’ve seen, e- and CH4 are extra, although some garden apts still include water/sewer.

The only useful amenity is the in-unit w/d, or at least hookups. Common laundry sucks donkey diddle, especially in Grade B.

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-03-27 09:20:03

OX: Our friends live in a 16 unit rental with one boiler for the heat another for the hot water, last year the 30 year old boiler gave out every few days so all 16 apartments had no hot water heat….

Also in NYC utilities included usually means an Illegal apartment since Con Ed will not install a separate meter without a certificate of occupancy.

Comment by Taxpayers
2017-03-26 14:16:05

Roxbury,Dorchester= dead honkey
Notice high end getting dumped and low end(the uniformed) buying

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-26 14:55:37

“Roxbury,Dorchester= dead honkey”


High end is getting dumped for sure. Panic buying at the lower end! Buy now or be priced out 4-ever.

Comment by MWR
2017-03-26 14:22:44

“Stearns includes a gulp-inducing chart in his report, which shows condo sales have slumped like a black-diamond ski slope, right as inventory has hit an all-time high. Now buildings are sitting on the market for months or years with empty units. The Crimson Miami in Edgewater, for example, is still 34 percent empty despite the fact that construction ended in December 2015. Rise at Brickell City Centre is still 54 percent empty. Construction was completed there in September 2016.”

I am looking at rentals in Hollywood, FL N or Miami and have seen a small decrease since last year but no movement recently. Of couse they do say inquire about rent specials” so that maybe where the rent reductions are happening.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-26 15:52:16

“I am looking at rentals in Hollywood, FL N or Miami and have seen a small decrease since last year but no movement recently. Of couse they do say inquire about rent specials” so that maybe where the rent reductions are happening.”

Yes, Ben has been documenting this phenomenon. The “rent specials” are like two, even three months free rent. Which I’m guessing allows them to do some accounting tricks instead of booking a “reduction”.

So definitely inquire about those “specials”.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-26 14:53:25

“Brickell, which has been so rapidly infused with condo buildings postrecession that the towers now blot out the sun at ground level, seems to be getting hit the hardest in terms of unsold inventory. The neighborhood is a glittering monument to oversupply.”

Miami’s going to tip over into the Atlantic Ocean.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-26 17:54:07

Note there’s no rush by the big media down there to report these things. Local reporting only.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-27 07:03:41

Here in the Tampa Bay area, word on the street is that deals are starting to go south due to properties not appraising at the contract price. This is according to a broker I know. Strictly anecdotal at this point, not that we’d ever get the real data anyway.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
Comment by FTHB wannabe
2017-03-26 23:15:27

A scary thought just occurred to me, keeping me awake. So, the Republicans are proposing a tax reform, and it looks like they are trying to reduce the corporate tax to 20%. Suppose that this applies to home rentals. Currently, it has been said the return on investment in that industry is around 3.5%, better than the investor-grade bond market. So, the sudden drop in the tax rate will make the industry more profitable, creating an extra investor demand for entry-level homes, driving further up the prices.

So, entry-level homes would be less and less affordable for the first-time home buyers, and they, including me, would be forced to find an affordable rental unit. Because everyone needs some place to live, apartment rents would rise accordingly with rising demand. making it more and more difficult to save for down payments.

With this new market condition, the market correction to housing would not happen any time soon until there are enough other investment opportunities available that make investment in housing less desirable.
Apparently, there are lots of knowledgeable people on this blog, and I am wondering what you think. Should I be buying as soon as the so-called reform becomes real?

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-27 09:33:03

It would take more than lowering the corporate tax rate to 20% to impact SFH rentals. They would also need to completely change lots of corporate structures.

REITs as an example do not pay corporate tax. Their income effectively flows through to investors as they need to pay out 90% of taxable income as dividends…thus the lowering of corporate taxes wouldn’t impact REITs that own SFH.

Individuals typically own their homes through partnerships or LLCs. These entities are “flow through” entities…and any income therefore derived has a tax rate determined by the individual brackets. Again, a lowering of corporate tax rate wouldn’t do anything.

Now, there are two things they are talking about that WOULD impact the home rental economics:

1. They are talking about changing how partnerships are taxed, so that any income a person derives from a partnership is NOT taxed at the individual rates, but instead taxed at a flat rate of I believe 25% (might be 20%); HOWEVER
2. They are also talking about completely eliminating the ability to deduct interest from revenue before determining income.

#2 far outweighs #1, IMHO.

Comment by FTHB wannabe
2017-03-27 15:52:43

Thanks a lot, Rental Watch. I should keep an eye on the details of the proposed reform.

Comment by FTHB wannabe
2017-03-26 23:41:47

Hmmm, test 1 test 2. Looks like my previous comment/question is not showing up. Is there some kind of automatic censoring?

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-03-27 00:16:29

Is there some kind of automatic censoring?

Sometimes there is a delay, while posts await Ben’s moderation; this seems to be poster-specific, as some are opted-in by their past behavior. Adding links to your posts can also add delays.

Ben, thanks for all of your hard work, keeping spam and noise to a minimum!

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-03-27 04:45:46

Good morning prime more information related to what we discussed yesterday:

When you calculate what they are making you need to double it to understand how they live because the Yuan is that underpriced according to the CIA and more amusingly the Big Mac index. Of course, since the country is still controlled, ultimately, by the communists that any day could decide to do away with any property rights, there is always going to be capital flight, it is the prudent thing to do. That is why it should be so important to this blog to understand the real economic situation in China. Worldwide housing demand is impacted by this capital flight. However, since the average Chinese is quickly getting richer an imminent end to their demand for housing outside the country does not seem likely any time soon. It also has implications for bitcoin and gold since these are two vehicles to get money out of the country.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-27 07:41:39

Monty Python’s “I Like Chinese”.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-27 07:54:43

“you need to double it to understand…”

The CIA has already done this and more, as you were clearly shown.

City wage $2500/yr (includes the fat cats). Rural wage 1/3 of that.

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Comment by IPFreely
2017-03-27 13:00:39

If there are 1.3 billion Chinese then they only have 13 million ‘one percenters’. If we generously allow for just their top 5% of earners then we arrive at only 65 million rich Chinese people who might be seeking a stucco lock box. If only 10 percent of this group desire a prime CA address then that is only 6.5 million new competitors to bid against for a modest single family home. (keep in mind this is just Chinese, we aren’t even calculating Mexican, Indian, Iranian, Iraqi, Russian, Brazilian, etc, etc.)

I’m sure the status quo will conveniently NOT find any potential issues with this and will make sure that no reasonable discussion will be allowed as that would be racist.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by oxide
2017-03-27 07:51:20

Interesting. But it’s not a new concept. Some weeks ago I learned about the “pennyloaf” in England. The pennyloaf was used as an economic comparison even 150 years ago. It can be a measure of inflation, or a measure of flour getting cheaper.

Personally I think the economist should upgrade their index to the SBUX Venti plain.

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Comment by FTHB wannabe
2017-03-27 07:41:27

Thanks Prime. And Thanks Ben for all the hard work. I am a millennial who just graduated from school last Fall and had a newborn earlier this year. So, I need to graduate from a one-bedroom apartment as well. I have been looking for an affordable entry-level home for months, but was not able to get my offer accepted due to crazy competition. It looked like everyone wants entry-level homes.Then, I found this blog, educating me what has really been going on, and I decided not to buy. I still believe it was a wise move.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-27 07:43:22

Panic buying at the lower end!

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-27 07:57:23

If you have to borrow for 30 years for something, you can’t afford it.

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Comment by scdave
2017-03-27 10:42:09

If you have to borrow for 30 years for something, you can’t afford it ??

Only for people who fear it…

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-27 09:49:29

Censoring. It always amazes me that there are people who think they are entitled to as much of my time and money as they please.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-27 10:47:47

People have been indoctrinated into this attitude. Everybody gotta right to say what they wanna say, except for the folks who say things that those who gotta right to say what they wanna say don’t like.

This calls for the euphemistic language of the commies. It’s not “censoring”. It’s “selective moderation”. Has a nice ring, and per the old George Carlin routine, has considerable syllabic expansion.

Comment by FTHB wannabe
2017-03-27 15:49:58

Oh, it was a bad choice of word. I was just wondering if there are automatic filtering of certain words I should be avoiding for a future reference.

Comment by 2banana
2017-03-27 04:36:43

The Sierra Club

Sees nothing wrong with massive immigration. Seed nothing wrong with illegals. They buy the entire liberal agenda.

But wonders why all this new building is going on and wants to stop it to save the wilderness…

Please give generously.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-27 09:34:30

The Sierra Club is just fine, as long as you pay their ransom. Then their opposition just fades away…

Comment by rms
2017-03-27 23:59:45

The wall-eyed reverend used this shakedown model.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-03-27 09:50:42

Not to mention that the Sierra Club stretches the truth to suit their needs.

Look up “Mariposa Lakes”. It’s one of the “approved” projects. 10k homes.

Great. Also, if you talk to market participants, it’s effectively dead (options on land lapsed, etc.).

Now add a more realistic number of homes per year for a City of 300,000 people and you have a lot less supply than they would like you to believe.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-27 11:35:08

Shouldn’t the question be if this is true?

‘The city already approved 19,000 yet-to-be built homes, at least. Assuming a growth rate of 500 homes a year, that is enough for 38 years of growth’

‘The Mariposa Lakes site is comprised of approximately 3,810 acres of unincorporated lands located four miles southeast of downtown Stockton and 3.5 miles northeast of the Stockton Metropolitan Airport.’

On the other side is a guy who says there’s a shortage of something he sells.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-27 13:12:33

A used house pimp. Figures.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-27 08:36:43

Is your portfolio getting hammered on the collapse of the post-election rally?

Comment by azdude
2017-03-27 11:44:05

BOJ and SNB have already backed up the truck and bought a sh@tload of stocks.
The FED bought bonds that lowered rates and enabled a corporate debt binge to buy stocks.

Janet yellen has already opened the door to buying stocks directly when this ponzi unravels.

How do u call this capitalism? What entitles central banks to be market managers?

Comment by Subarusky driver
2017-03-27 15:36:50

Yellen isnt going to be buying any stocks with taxpayer money under this president. At least not openly. She tries that and there will be lit torches headed for the fed reserve.

And with Sessions bringing the hammer down on sanctuary cities - including clawbacks - law and order is finally making a comeback after a long hiatus in this country. Might be good to be a rope salesman the next few years, plenty of scum need a good hanging.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-03-27 13:40:14
Comment by azdude
2017-03-27 14:10:48

Could this be a bear trap? I was thinkn about this other day.

Let the market fall a little bit and get everyone short again. then kick them in the sack with some buying to force short covering.

Comment by oxide
2017-03-27 17:10:15

My guess is no. These yokuls sincerely thought that Trump was going to ax all those pesky regulations on Day 1. Which would allow them to start back up with the cheating and blow things up again, taking the skim for themselves, of course. But evidently Trump is busy with other things. So they are all crestfallen and the DOW is falling too.

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Comment by aNYCdj
2017-03-27 09:22:47

Best comment

I think this is the issue. We cannot sell, because we cannot afford a larger house at this point. We are doing some remodel work to make use of our unused basement, to add some more living space.

Comment by SW
2017-03-27 09:40:40

Regarding the articles on Wisconsin, Stockton and Kentucky….

Welcome to 2007…..I mean 2017.

Comment by oxide
2017-03-27 09:53:29

Did you hear the one about the woman selling a $140,000 home in Kenwick who was besieged with home hunters wanting to see her house?

Did you hear the one about ZIllow now listing houses in Pre-Foreclosure? Is anyone chasing after those too?

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-27 10:57:55

Heh, you laugh, but when we sold our place back during bubble 1.0, we had a couple of people approach us after the fact of the contract, offering more money if we’d cancel the contract and sell to them. We passed on the proposition.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-27 10:44:37
Comment by palmetto
2017-03-27 13:01:44

Can I make a vulgar bi-partisan criticism? Huh? Huh? Can I?

OK, I’ll try and see if it gets “censored”. Er, uh, “selectively moderated”. Either way, I don’t mind.

Here goes: Congress is a bunch of panty-sniffing ass-clowns. On both sides of the aisle. They really must be having their finest hour ever, dealing with a bunch of invented cloak and dagger spy vs spy crapola.

OMG! It’s all secret, it’s all classified! Wow! Wow! They must keep it all from the people. They’re all so important!

They missed the mark. Instead of repealing I’llbombyacare, they should’ve repealed the Patriot Act and the entire “intelligence community”. What a joke.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-27 13:19:04

Thanks for allowing the vent. Let me also add to my wish list of repeals: Bring peace and prosperity in our time. Repeal the Federal Reserve Act.

Repeal Fannie and Freddie, too.

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-03-27 13:50:22

Palmy If we could get 100,000 Muslims marching in front of the Israel embassy in NYC with signs stating we accept Israels right to exist, and get the ayatollahs to change their views ( mohammed really didn’t mean kill all non believers) we could have Peace for the next 250 years or more

And the trillions could be spent on giving us a cancer/disease free healthy life span of 120 years….

either that or we really give them a religious jihad they will never forget.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-27 14:46:47

Reminds my of an old joke that used to circulate in Nashville. I’m telling it from memory, so I’m taking some liberties here:

Guy settles down in front of the tee-vee to watch the Grand Ole’ Opry and opens an old bottle of Jim Beam. A genie pops out and says “Hey, thanks, buddy, I got trapped in there by mistake. To show my appreciation, I’ll grant you one wish. What’ll it be?”

Guy thinks for a minute, goes to his room and comes back out with a map and points to the Middle East. “Gee, there’s been a awful lot of trouble there for a long time, d’ya think you could bring peace to the Middle East?”

The genie gets all bummed out and says “No, that’s impossible, even for me. Do you have another wish?”

Guy thinks for a minute and says “Well, I’ve always been a fan of Porter Wagoner. I’d really like to see him recognized for the true musical genius that he was, with a revival of his music and videos and all kinds of awards that he should have gotten.”

The genie thinks for a minute and says “Lemme see that map of the Middle East again.”

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Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-27 14:18:38

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-27 14:23:03

Quit stalking me, ya bluenose creep.

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Comment by azdude
2017-03-27 13:42:54

“We’ve never been in a cycle quite like this,” said Bonnie Baha, a money manager at DoubleLine Capital in Los Angeles, which oversees more than $80 billion. “It’s setting up for an unhappy turn.

Much of the cheap credit accumulated by companies was spent on a $3.8 trillion M&A binge, and to fund share buybacks and dividend payments. While that tends to push up share prices in the short term, bond investors would rather see that money spent on strengthening the business in the long term.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-27 13:59:49

‘The emerging cracks “are part of the same symptomatic problem — an economy that’s got stuck on stimulus,” said Luke Hickmore, an Edinburgh-based senior investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management, with about 284 billion pounds ($406 billion) of funds under management, according to its website. “It’s not sustainable.”

Comment by Neuromance
2017-03-27 20:18:40

With ‘full employment’ as a Fed mandate, this gives them cover to pump more money in the FIRE sector, generating fantastically expensive jobs in finance, with some multiples of that value subtly extracted from the citizenry.

They should just worry about stable prices and let the elected representatives figure out to whom the extracted largesse should go.

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