March 31, 2017

A Lot More People Said, ‘Hey, I Can’t Afford My Mortgage’

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Not counting carrying costs and real estate fees, Canadian-born ‘Austin Powers’ franchise star Mike Myers took a hair-raising, $675,000 blow to his bank account when he sold a four-bedroom and 4.5-bathroom condo in New York City’s TriBeCa neighborhood for $14 million just four months after he bought it for $14.675 million. The never-occupied 4,241-square-foot apartment, flipped back on the market at $15 million just a week after Mister Myers bought it.”

“A spike in delinquent mortgages last year contributed to Baton Rouge’s fall in a national ranking of the overall health of 400 housing markets across the U.S., according to a Nationwide Economics report. This time last year, around 3.5% of Baton Rouge homeowners were more than 90 days delinquent on their mortgages, says Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers, one of the report’s authors. In the second half of the year, the number jumped to 5%. ‘That’s a lot more people in a short period of time that said, ‘Hey, I can’t afford my mortgage,’ Ayers says.”

“‘The general trend is still very good. We still feel like the economy is going to be growing over the next few years,’ Ayers says. ‘The main concern we have, particularly in the larger markets, is unsustainable house price gains.’”

“Is Silicon Valley’s seemingly unstoppable economic engine finally starting to slow down? Tech companies in San Francisco and San Mateo counties lost 700 jobs from January to February and tech employment has dropped by 3,200 jobs since hitting a peak last August, according to Ted Egan, San Francisco’s chief economist. Q: What are the weakest spots in tech? A: Venture capital has peaked and has been going down steadily since 2015. A lot of the employment in our tech sector is in companies that are not profitable.”

“Q: What about housing? A: What I’m hearing from people in the housing market is that the upper end, the luxury stuff, is really taking longer to sell. In terms of rents, we hit a peak a year ago and we are around 5 percent down from there.”

“Apartment landlords across the U.S. struggled through a tough first quarter as a slowdown in the rental market grew worse. Across the U.S., apartment developers delivered 100,000 more new units than were leased in the quarter. ‘We didn’t get a lot of demand and at the same time we got a lot of supply,’ said Greg Willett, chief economist at RealPage Inc. ‘To some degree it looks like operators have panicked in the Bay Area and New York.’”

“This spring it is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing supply. The average number of new apartments finished in each of the next few quarters is expected to climb to 102,000 from 82,000 in late 2016 and early 2017, according to Axiometrics. ‘Houston, you are experiencing concessions or just flat-out adjustments of the effective rent,’ said Brad Taylor, managing partner for the central region at JPI, an Irving, Texas-based real-estate developer. ‘The amount that someone has been writing their rent check for has been dropping.’”

“Still convinced that the city of Toronto needs to build more housing to bring down prices? Unfortunately there’s no data to support that. Actually, the data shows the opposite. Basic analysis shows the city might be overbuilding by over 40% for the current rate of growth. From 2012 to 2016, Toronto CMA saw 175,825 homes completed. This represents a 9.75% increase from the period prior. That’s a home for every 1.96 people that moved to the area, and 41% more than the average household size. That would have to be a pretty wide margin of error from all levels of government for there to be a ’shortage’ of homes.”

“So what’s happening with those extra units? Well let’s see. A few months ago our robo-researcher identified 1 in 3 homes listed for resale in Toronto were being sold as never having been occupied. Then there’s the 99,236 vacant homes in the city. The latter is a number so large that Paris, a city with just a few thousand more vacant units, is calling it an emergency. That considered, this sounds a lot like plain ole speculation. The fact that China’s capital outflows are reversing this year, also means it’s most likely domestic speculation.”

“Confusion reigns in one corner of Brisbane’s challenged apartment market, with a marketer offering discounts of up to 39 per cent – apparently without authorisation – in a newly completed residential development. David Carter, from Landmark Asset Services, this week emailed clients offering discounts such as two-bedroom apartments marked down from $805,000 to $490,000 and three-bedroom penthouses cut from $1.2 million to $960,000 in The Hudson development in the inner-ring suburb of Albion.”

“‘The funder has taken the project off the developer and has given us four weeks to sell the remaining 50 or so apartments,’ Mr Carter wrote in the email, which included a flyer offering ‘Sizzling Hot Deals.’ ‘I have never sent an email like this to friends and family but this is a damn good opportunity for anyone if they are looking for an investment and a fire sale price.’”

“Phnom Penh’s mushrooming property market is set for a massive crash with new apartment prices set to plummet by up to 50 per cent over the course of this year compared with March 2016 prices, says the director of EPenh, Nigel Miranda, in the Cambodian capital. According to Mr Miranda the effects of the oversupply will be felt across the entire Phnom Penh property market, with construction also tipped to be scaled down.”

“Asset valuation company VTrust Appraisal said that in 2016 there was a big increase in housing completion, with 14,539 units completed across numerous projects in the capital, a 106 per cent increase over the 7,054 units completed in 2015. Additionally 2016 saw 11,550 new units released for presale, with link type houses accounting for 89.1 per cent, or 10,290 units. However, only 51 per cent were sold. Of the 100,278 strata housing units available at the end of 2016, VTrust says only 67 per cent or some 68,190 had found buyers.”

“Signs that the Phnom Penh property market balloon is reaching bursting point first began to emerge last August. Claiming that developers and real estate agents are creating an artificial price balloon and benefiting from the absence of any property price index, Mr Miranda said. Phnom Penh condominium prices exceeded comparable properties in Thailand, Kuala Lumpur, and Jakarta. ‘I expect foreigners who have bought condominiums (foreigners can not legally own land in Cambodia) in the expectation of flipping them and making a profit in a couple of years, or even on completion, may instead see losses of between 30 and 60 per cent should they try and sell in the next couple of years,’ he said.”

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-31 07:26:34

Montgomery, TX Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-31 07:27:50

‘Silicon Valley’s seemingly unstoppable economic engine’

What on Earth is unstoppable? These people watch something go on for 3 or 5 years and it’s supposedly a thing that has always existed and will never stop?

News flash: I remember when these bay aryans were screaming little babies crying for someone to save their sorry asses from foreclosure. You reading this know it too. It wasn’t that long ago.

There’s no freaking shortage of housing. It might tighten up here and there on occasion, but it’s just temporary.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-31 07:34:32

Housing demand in SF county fell 20% yoy.


Comment by rms
2017-03-31 08:00:59

Q: What are the weakest spots in tech?

A: Venture capital has peaked and has been going down steadily since 2015. A lot of the employment in our tech sector is in companies that are not profitable. If they can’t secure new venture funding, some of them run out of cash. If we see a real downturn in the tech sector we could be in a situation where the U.S. economy is doing better than San Francisco’s.

Having to turn a profit is so twentieth century.

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2017-03-31 11:01:36

“If they can’t secure new venture funding…”

I work from a home office. I’m going to start a gofundme campaign so I can get a slide, some bean bag chairs,…maybe a bike rack. I’m pretty awesome, so I’m sure others will have no problem giving me monies.

Comment by redmondjp
2017-04-01 23:40:05

You’re not one of the dudes who did that to make the blender built into the drink cooler are you? Oh, and it’s really cool because it can charge your phone while it mixes your margarita.

Those dudes are still trying to deliver . . .

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Comment by Avg Joe
2017-03-31 08:49:33

I’ve already lived through two bubbles there. Nothing is any different this time around.

Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-31 11:00:27

I wonder why we don’t see more sellers cashing in at the top and moving to TX?

Comment by rms
2017-03-31 12:49:11

Maybe txchick57 could answer this one, hehe.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-03-31 15:58:22

Wasn’t txchick57 based in the Dallas area?

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Comment by rms
2017-03-31 18:31:54

I believe so, but she always had a word or two about Texas.

Comment by butters
2017-03-31 11:17:00

Bulletin board systems and dic pics are not tech.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-31 13:19:31

“Bulletin board systems and dic pics are not tech.”

Ain’t that the trute.

Comment by aqius
2017-03-31 07:44:13

windy enough here (Sacramento) today that just opening a door/window gets an instant “desk-clearing”.

Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-31 07:55:26

panom phen ?

easy living (or dying) in the countryside
problem solved

?is your county spending like mad?
it’s the last of the summer wine

Comment by Rentor
2017-03-31 13:18:39

If SIlicon Valley is stalling or slowing how is Sacramento doing? Wouldn’t Bay Area people move to Sac rather than Texas?

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-31 14:05:10

There are companies leaving CA and moving to TX. They can go to Sacramento and find a job maybe.

Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-31 14:58:37

Silly heads to Reno, no state income tax and cheaper housing.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-31 17:06:32

Sacramento is on the other side of the mountains, so it doesn’t have the Mediterranean climate. If so many Bay Area people have moved there recently, their families are in other states or other countries, so there wouldn’t be a reason to stay in northern California.

Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-31 08:25:10

Kansas fail? Forbes
Significantly, every year since the tax cuts were implemented, Kansas has surpassed the state record for new business formations. When we consider that startups have decreased nationwide since the Great Recession of 2008, this achievement is particularly remarkable. What’s more, the Kansas unemployment rate stands at 3.7% – the lowest the state has seen since 2001, and well below the national average of 5.5%.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-31 09:23:27

Keynesian policy failed for decades and it’s the dominant economic theory taught in schools. Socialism has ruined country after country. Everything we were promised from NAFTA failed to materialize. China is still a corrupt, unfathomably unequal dictatorship almost 20 years after it’s entry into the WTO.

Comment by Taxpayers
2017-03-31 09:32:51

With u on Keynes,but I’m an Adam Smith free trader.Not for tariffs etc.
The steel adjustments are rube Goldberg

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-31 09:37:47

‘I’m an Adam Smith free trader’

That’s why you’re on the bench too. Globalism had it’s 50 year run and failed.

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Comment by Taxpayers
2017-03-31 09:50:24

See Singapore for results,from rock to riches w trade.
Tariffs are the same as minwage and other gov interventions=bad

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-31 10:02:22

Where is the Mexican middle class that we were promised would buy stuff from us? They got a heck of a trade deal. Why are government thugs throwing Chinese out of tall windows?

It’s semantics. The same government fools that go on about “free trade” haven’t gotten rid of the minimum wage. You know what free trade is? I could load up my truck with something, drive down to Mexico and sell it. I can’t do that. Have you looked at NAFTA regs? I have. Only giant corporations with teams of NAFTA brokers and envelopes full of bribe money can trade with Mexico. What’s Mexico’s minimum wage? What are their environmental laws? Their labor laws? Free trade isn’t a religion and only the Sith deal in absolutes.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-31 10:15:38

Likewise, I cannot load up my truck with stuff and take it to Canada “free”. No bribes but it isn’t free trade.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-31 10:42:15

Why point to far off Singapore? Mexico is right next door and it’s practically a failed state. Free trade is the mantra of globalism, so let’s not wander into some theoretical debate on something that is not relevant. If globalism worked it could stand on its own merit. Instead we are told by Davos “elites” it is inevitable and never to be questioned.

Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-31 11:21:42

Nixon thought the Chinese would buy from US.

Comment by butters
2017-03-31 12:05:04

They do buy from American companies that make in China.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-31 13:45:57

Speaking of trade, the prez signs executive orders to reign in foreign trade abuses.

“the President signed two executive orders on trade today. One directive orders a review of all U.S. trade deficits with other countries and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has said the country-by-country, 90-day assessment would be used to guide trade policy. Meanwhile, the other order aims to strengthen enforcement of existing countervailing duties and anti-dumping penalties against foreign products.”

Anyone who wants the link, you can find it at ZH.

Comment by Neuromance
2017-03-31 16:57:16

Ben Jones: If globalism worked it could stand on its own merit. Instead we are told by Davos “elites” it is inevitable and never to be questioned.

“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” — Upton Sinclair

Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-31 17:12:32

Nixon thought the Chinese would buy from US.

They buy raw materials from us and sell us manufactured goods. The British did the same with their colonies when they had an empire.

Comment by junior_kai
2017-03-31 19:02:51

Ben, the mexican middle class is in the US. Just look around!

Comment by Yaan
2017-03-31 19:35:28

“Nixon thought the Chinese would buy from US.”
They did. They bought our production machinery and moved it to their factories.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-31 17:09:40

Kansas doesn’t look good when compared to its neighbor Missouri. A few graphs, with the conclusion:

If it is not apparent, then let me observe that pre-Brownback, Kansas GDP outpaces Missouri and Plains ex.-Kansas. That pattern reverses after the advent of Brownback.

Comment by Taxpayers
2017-04-01 04:48:32

The 3rd graph shows ks starting in a huge hole long before Brownback. Let’s see how the first qtr compares and add ne to the graph.

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Comment by Apartment 401
2017-03-31 08:51:12

American Financing is airing radio ads promoting first time “home buying” as a way to pay off other bills, because instant equity, LOLZ.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-31 10:07:37

‘This time last year, around 3.5% of Baton Rouge homeowners were more than 90 days delinquent on their mortgages, says Nationwide Senior Economist Ben Ayers, one of the report’s authors. In the second half of the year, the number jumped to 5%. ‘That’s a lot more people in a short period of time that said, ‘Hey, I can’t afford my mortgage’

And not an interest only loan in sight.

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-03-31 11:08:41

The radio ad specifically says having to pay first month, last month, security deposit, and pet deposits on a rental as reasons to “buy” a home instead.

Comment by oxide
2017-03-31 11:33:45

Baton Rouge could be a special case because of the floods that damaged so many homes.

But mortgages could go bad due to FHA fees, HOA fees, rising expenses like Obamacare. Of course it would be great to tighten up the underwriting standards. But that’s not good for politicians because people want their homes to appreciate more than the rate of inflation.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-31 14:10:19

Not floods. They are used to that.

Petrochemical boom over.

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Comment by Neuromance
2017-03-31 17:03:40

oxide:: But that’s not good for politicians because people want their homes to appreciate more than the rate of inflation.

The net result of house price appreciation for most consumers is higher property taxes. So politicians like it too.

The only people who increase their usable net worth from house price increases are flippers. Politicians increase their chances of re-election with it. The consumer is stuck with a warm glow and a lighter pocketbook.

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Comment by MightyMike
2017-03-31 17:22:29

If something is not good for some politicians, it’s got to be good for others - the politicians not currently in power.

Comment by Taxpayers
2017-04-01 04:50:10

La got 120? Billion in Katrina money w a decent chunk going to baton rouge

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-31 09:26:16

‘To some degree it looks like operators have panicked in the Bay Area and New York.’

‘Across the U.S., apartment developers delivered 100,000 more new units than were leased in the quarter. This spring it is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing supply. The average number of new apartments finished in each of the next few quarters is expected to climb to 102,000 from 82,000 in late 2016 and early 2017′

‘100,000 more new units than were leased’

Does this sound like a shortage?

Comment by azdude
2017-03-31 12:58:04

The high dollar construction crews doing underground on this subdivision have been around like a year digging ditches and laying pipe and wiring. They had to tie into existing infrastructure.

Their bill must b huge. It all gets added to the home price. Before a 2×4 or foundation is laid there must be at least 100,000.00 into each lot with their costs and the local building fees.

And folks wonder why homes cost so much. Starter house 350,000.00

Assuming a 10% profit of 35,000.00 on that house that would mean they sunk 315,000,00 into the land, infrastructure work, hiring crews to build the home, fees and marketing for each home.

Or do u think they are making more than 10% on each home?

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-31 13:05:47

‘there must be at least 100,000.00 into each lot’

They were selling big new houses with a 2 car garage in Peoria for just over 100k in 2001.

Comment by somedewd
2017-03-31 13:44:23

Builders that stay in business count on at least 30% margins.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-31 13:57:46

lol. Good joke.

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Comment by somedewd
2017-04-02 20:05:00
Pulte Home Gross margins last 5 years: 16-27%
Toll Brothers last 5 years: 18.6-21.6%
KB Homes last 5 years: 14.4-17.3%
DRHorton : 19.8-22.5
Lennar (doing poorly): 10.8-14.0
Hovnanian (doing poorly): 13-17.5
Meritage: 17.4-22.5
Taylor Morrison: 19.2-21.7
NVR: 18.9-20.3

While lower than 30%, these are national builders with ability to survive on smaller margins due to cost-control, debt servicing advantages, etc. Private, regional, small shops will need every bit of 30% to survive in the good times and bad. Count how many public firms are on this list of bankrupt builders; bet those private guy were not getting 30% margins needed to weather a bad downturn. Got family in the business who reach for 15% overhead, 10% profit. Spec builds require higher profit due to risk/increased carrying involved. Obviously, YMMV and some might do better with less.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-31 14:23:25

Site package-

Mass excavation, potable and sanitary laterals, backfill and rough grade=$20k, building permit included. Electric free in same trench if less than <100′.

Comment by redmondjp
2017-04-02 00:09:31

You’re always good for a laugh, Haysticks!

Quoting 25-year-old building costs out in flyover country that is not located within an urban growth boundary.

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Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-02 05:36:58

Refute it my friend.

Comment by CHE
2017-03-31 13:49:33

“Real-estate agents in the Bay Area said tenants renewing leases there have been able to convince their landlords not to raise rents. Those moving into newer buildings often receive two months free rent and six months to a year of free parking—incentives potentially worth thousands of dollars”

Like I said.. seeing the same thing in LA now. My 1964 building has had to stoop to offering 1/2 month rent free and a $500 referral fee to current residents try to move their $2300 a month one-bedrooms. They went so far as to tape up flyers up and down the street. Still no takers. I’m sure this is just the beginning.

Meanwhile went to get a haircut during lunch in Glendale. On my way back to the office, block upon block of brand new mid-rises lining Central Ave looking sparsely occupied with huge “NOW LEASING” sings all over the place. More still going up.

Checked out one - 1 bedroom w/o balcony at the Onyx - $2,390 -to $2,840

But they are offering 2 months free!

Comment by someuser8944
2017-03-31 19:59:14

I am also observing this on the ground here in L.A. Mid Wilshire area plastered with for rent signs. Have not seen such a thing around here in years. It wasn’t even like this in the 2008 run-up. From DTLA to the west side and in-between we are being absolutely flooded with new build “luxury” apartment homes. Something is afoot.

Comment by rms
2017-03-31 23:59:17

Good or bad it seems like everything that happens in the Los Angeles area is always huge. I always liked Pasadena, but these days it’s like champagne taste on a beer budget. Had family in Santa Ana twenty-five years ago, terrible smog and traffic.

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Comment by aqius
2017-04-01 07:16:19

$2500 a MONTH rent & they tape signs to posts?!

good grief. sounds like typical cheap-as-hell pinch-every- penny-hard . . . . ahh skip it.

we all know the drill.

core foundations of this nation are dying.


Comment by Scooby Snacks
2017-04-01 07:13:49

Orange County: My apartment management did not even bother with a lease renewal two months ago. My rent is essentially month to month- maybe they are fixing to turn this place into condos. Condpartments?

Comment by slynnns
2017-04-04 01:01:03

Don’t know that month-to-month means anything. In the mid-2000s in Pasadena my building wouldn’t renew leases when they expired. Their policy simply was month to month. The increase came after each 12 months but could have been more frequent - we’d have liked a lease re-signed to not worry about increases coming from no where.

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Comment by taxpayer
2017-03-31 10:37:47

Just ordered 4 wood flower boxes from Gina for $10.50 total w shipping. Includes delivery to me while sitting on the bench. And I’ll get some gina out of the deal.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-31 11:20:49

Falling prices my friend. Falling prices.

Nothing accelerates the economy and create jobs like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-31 11:08:40

Wikileaks Vault 7

We’ll never know who hacks what on the international drama stage. Our own cops pretend to be someone else, and tell us it is someone else screwing with us, with fakeable footprints as proof.

Add it to the list of things we are not supposed to question.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-31 13:17:55

And yet, a bit of good news today. T-Rex says US no longer interested in ousting Assad. And just like that, it’s over for us in Syria.

The bad news? McCain is furious, but not enough to have an aneurysm.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-31 13:41:21

And at this time, I would like to thank Ben from the bottom of my heart for his encouragement in this goal and for reminding me what was really important in the first place.

This is huge, actually, but has been drowned out in all the other stupid noise.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-31 14:16:40

but has been drowned out…

I am quite fine with not having the news media drive current events.

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Comment by palmetto
2017-03-31 14:31:01

“I am quite fine with not having the news media drive current events.”

Me, too. But they’re sure trying. However, with regard to Vault 7, one thing I’ve learned is that the MSM is driven by the “intelligence” agencies. At this point they almost seem to be one and the same.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-31 14:59:15

It’s very much a Pinky and the Brain thing.

Comment by azdude
2017-03-31 11:45:09

I am retiring this year thanks to rising home prices.

Comment by Throbert
2017-03-31 12:10:40

I am committing suicide this year thanks to rising home prices.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-31 12:15:23

I am retiring this year thanks to not being a housing debt donkey.

Comment by oxide
2017-03-31 14:27:21

And when I retire years from now, I won’t be a housing debt donkey either. Renters might be able to say that too, but they’d better be salting away those rent savings instead of throwing them away. Right now, a viable turnkey Oil City house will cost at least $75K. In 20 years it might be double that.

And by viable turnkey, I mean a house with dependable utilities, within reasonable distance of a hospital and a Wal-Mart, and with no major maintenance due for at least 5 years like furnace, roof, septic tank, dry basement, etc.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-31 14:51:16


Depreciation at a rate of $3/sqft per year carries on regardless of condition.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-31 14:57:57

Well you know I’ve been there.

I’m fortunate not to have landed in Oil City. I’ve been through there many times when I had the farm north of Pittsburgh. The problem with Oil City is that you can’t get to anything from there. Here I have all the essentials in easy walking distance and the dock is only a few miles away.

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Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-03-31 17:59:30

Oil City is used as a generic term on this blog for a low cost place to live. It doesn’t necessarily have to be Oil City, PA.

While on the topic, I would be interested in hearing about other potential “Oil City” locales that are on the radar screens of the gallery.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-31 18:05:57
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-31 18:09:23

Potentially new oil cities emerging are Boston, San Francisco, Denver and Seattle.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-03-31 18:59:19

What day was the Roanoke discussion, Palmy?

The under $60k houses look like they’re old, in need of repair, and in rough neighborhoods. Change the search to $100k to $150k and they look a lot better than the sub $60k stock.

Comment by oxide
2017-04-01 06:44:00

Yup, I’m using Oil City as a general low-cost town. Hey Race Bannon, you might want to add Destroit to your list.

Yes, Roanoke is probably a good example. And then there were those houses in Cleveland and Muncie. A couple weeks weeks back we looked at Southeastern North Carolina near the military basesd. And Tomball, Texas. What about the small towns between Atlanta and Chattanooga? Far-flung suburbs near Jacksonville? Zanesville, OH. Anything 20 miles from a major land-grant university. Others can fill in stuff in the West.

Comment by MacBeth
2017-04-01 07:32:53

I know of at least 15 oil cities that would be good to live in. Some are in flyover. Some are not.

Seven of them I have checked out personally. All seven are good to excellent based on what I am looking for.

There’s no way I am going to tell anyone about them. I don’t want to ruin my options, nor the lives of people already living in these cities

The very last thing I and they want are equity locusts from elsewhere destroying what already is a good thing.

Comment by MacBeth
2017-04-01 07:34:46

Keeping your mouth shut in the age of excessive social media is always a good idea.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-04-01 08:37:38

MacBeth - I respect that you want to keep the names of your candidate Oil City locations close to the vest, but can you shed some light on your screening criteria?

Part of me wants to pursue the Oil City plan in about 5-10 years, and part of me wants to stay right where I am.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-01 09:44:32

You guys are hilarious.

There is 10,000 a day headed to the funeral home, population growth at record lows, housing vacancies at record highs.

Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-31 13:00:37

Take your Soc Sec and that $9000 in gains to Panama.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-03-31 18:00:35

Panama is too hot and humid.

Comment by rms
2017-03-31 18:39:02

Former 11 bravo here… phuc the tropics. :)

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Comment by new attitiude
2017-03-31 13:22:02

Morgan Stanley: Used Car Prices May Crash 50%

No one wants a used PC on wheels that might need a new transmission soon.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-31 13:48:40

I gotta give you major props for that comment. A used PC on wheels. Jeebus, that’s awesome. I’m not worthy.

Comment by azdude
2017-03-31 15:25:18

my car is a manual transmission cause I know automatics are more prone to failure an cost a lot to replace. If your easy on the clutch they last forever.

Why pay for a depreciating new car? Let some other fool buy new and take the big loss.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-31 17:28:45


With record inventory and growing, new cars are now less costly than a used one. Just like housing. Incentives my friend….. incentives.

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Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-03-31 19:05:18

Recently I pulled the trigger on a new Camry. Model is changing for 2018 and they’re motivated to move the 2017 models. I was able to get one at 22% off sticker price and they overpaid me for my trade-in. I imagine they will discount further as the year progresses.

The car’s not going to turn any heads, but as long as it’s reliable I’m fine with that. I hope to get 200k miles out of it.

Comment by Hi-Z
2017-04-01 10:08:19

Buy American. Hire Americans.

Comment by aqius
2017-04-01 07:21:18

in heavy city driving a clutch will cause your left leg to go numb after 10 minutes!

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-31 14:00:12

Morrison, CO Housing Prices Tank 9% As Vacancy Rate Skyrockets

Comment by Crow Breath
2017-03-31 15:50:34

Taxes for UK landlords are about to get a lot more expensive. I think it is funny — governments everywhere, they love these property bubbles because they get to tax it in so many ways. First, the usual property taxes. Then, in the name of trying to “fix it”, they tax it even more for foreign-buyers, empty houses, and landlords. Money money money.

“But from 6 April 2017 landlords will see the amount they can write off for tax purposes drop by 25 per cent each tax year until 2020 when they will have to declare all of their rent as income, pay income tax on the total and then claim back for 20 per cent of it as a credit.”

“It’s estimated that 440,000 basic rate tax-paying landlords will find themselves in the higher rate tax bracket in future as a result.”

Comment by Crow Breath
2017-03-31 16:21:52

I forgot to add. To all the 3-letter spy agencies out there — BBQ tonight is at 7. You’re welcome to come by, for a beer and some chicken if you get hungry. Bring pie.

Comment by JSandusky
2017-03-31 16:51:36

F them! I wouldn’t even offer water if they were dying of thirst. Them and the Fed, F them!

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-31 18:10:25

After what I read today, my head is spinning.

This is not America.

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Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-31 16:56:49

And the funniest part about it? Landlords can’t arbitrarily pass through rising expenses to tenants. :mrgreen:

Comment by Crow Breath
2017-03-31 17:19:44

I wonder how many of those landlords will decide it’s no longer worth the hassle, and try to sell their properties instead.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-03-31 17:26:13

All the while, new inventory gets added and the majority of it is spec. :mrgreen:

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Comment by james joyce
2017-03-31 16:41:18

Cesar Chavez’s son spoke at the high school where I teach today. I was fascinated by him. He practiced passive resistance at an amazingly high level

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-31 17:46:19

“He practiced passive resistance at an amazingly high level”

The father or the son?

Comment by taxpayer
2017-04-01 08:53:11

poverty pays
for now,but may get trumped
anti welfare warriors are no longer cowed

WORKfare !

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-31 17:04:26

Silverton, OR Housing Prices Tank 14% YoY; Builders Undercut Resale Market

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-31 17:42:40

GHOST CITY - Inside the Chinese Housing Bubble

Published on Oct 16, 2016

You can skip to 8 minutes in.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-31 17:59:42

Still is. Not happy with it, either.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-31 18:16:04

Oops, how’d that get there? I meant to reply to Bubba’s comment on txchk in Dallas.

Anyway that vid was a mind-blower. I can’t wrap my mind around it and I don’t get how they can even afford to build those and not have them occupied. And then keep building.

Comment by palmetto
2017-03-31 18:00:57

Heh-heh, the comment about the air.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-03-31 18:21:50

And almost no one is there. Polluted air in the middle of nowhere. One guy mentions this is what their economy is based upon, so I guess if they stop everything stops.

Comment by phony scandals
2017-03-31 19:47:08

Ghost slabs, build outs drop the price. :)

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-03-31 19:42:55

Yeah, “It’s not going to go down”.

There is a lot in news over there that smells like cascading defaults. They are calling it “daisy chains”.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-03-31 18:05:36

Lanai City, Hawaii Housing Prices Plunge 16% YoY As Global Bubble Implodes

Comment by phony scandals
Comment by ZH
2017-03-31 20:23:05

China’s Record Iron Ore Glut: Enough To Build 13,000 Eiffel Towers

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-01 11:22:21

“If no buyers are found, iron ore prices will plunge, resulting in another shock to China’s manufacturing sector, leading to another collapse in cash flows, a surge in bailouts and defaults, and a fresh deflationary wave being unleashed on the rest of the world as China’s wholesale inflation once again tumbles into negative territory.”

Unleash the deflationary wave!

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-01 08:17:14

“Re: I don’t understand how commercial real estate making money

retail is only part of commercial, you should consider multifamily, especially small balance multifamily loan ($2-5M in value, less than 50 units)

multifamily is always the least risky and best performing property type within commercial real estate

there are certainly benefit of investing in commercial real estate
1. non-recourse loan: your property can fail and you can just walk away from it, the lender cant touch your other asset to collect the debt
2. its cash-flow lending, you can always continue to improve the property, get more rents out of it, and increase its value/equity, keep doing this and one day you will have 0 equity in the property even at 70 or 60% LTV, and the property will generate healthy cash flow for you”

I’ve been telling you guys: they refinance over and over. Works great on the way up. These are short term loans. Credit is tightening and values are dropping. And many have little or no skin in the game.

Comment by phony scandals
2017-04-01 06:44:29

The price of the house I bought 5 years ago has almost doubled, so when the same model 4 doors down went on the market I jumped on it!

We close next week.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-01 07:29:21

I’m going to be unemployed in a couple of weeks so I am taking out a huge HELOC to do my kitchen remodel. All top end stuff. It’s going to be so much fun!

Comment by @AltFacts
2017-04-01 07:17:22

Is the Fed really planning to wind down it’s $4.5 trillion Treasury and mortgage bond portfolio, or is that just a bunch of 🏇 hockey?

Comment by JSandusky
2017-04-01 10:24:31

pure bs. dont listen to anything they say.

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2017-04-01 07:31:07

The town I live in has decided to build a luxury high school.

Comment by JSandusky
2017-04-01 10:44:07

Everything is luxury these days.

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2017-04-01 13:41:43

‘Everything is luxury these days.’

This one will have Tesla charging stations and the cafeteria will have a Starbucks shop and an new Applebees concept restaurant that they are calling “Suzanne’s”.

Comment by phony scandals
2017-04-01 09:37:37

Hugh Masekela - Grazing in the Grass

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-04-01 09:38:40

Ms. Manthie, a 33-year-old consultant, is 41 weeks pregnant, but she and her husband are still trudging to open houses most weekends in search of a four-bedroom home in the $700,000 range—up from $400,000 when they started.

“It’s shocking. The house [two doors down from] my mother-in-law went in three hours,” she said.

Comment by JSandusky
2017-04-01 10:50:27

JournANALists buying 700k houses. No wonder they just cheerlead the propaganda.

Comment by JSandusky
2017-04-01 10:55:49

Everybody wants to live in Minneapolis I guess. Brrrr…..

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-04-01 12:24:58

Maybe Its the Prince effect, and that genius will rub off.

Comment by phony scandals
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