An Unlucky Roll Of The Dice
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “A Manhattan landlord was busted Thursday for lying on paperwork to score a multimillion-dollar loan for a rental property on the Lower East Side, authorities said. Dean Galasso submitted phony documents to Investors Bank to obtain a $5,025,000 mortgage to finance the purchase of a 10-unit building, according to a statement from state Attorney General Eric Schneiderman’s office. ‘Bad landlords are now on notice: if you attempt to break the law, we will find you and prosecute you to the fullest extent of the law,’ AG Schneiderman said in a statement.”
“Galasso, who owns numerous properties in Manhattan and Queens, faces charges of grand larceny, forgery and other raps. He bought the property for $6.9 million in 2014, real-estate records show.”
“Connecticut home sale prices dipped in February to their lowest point for the month since 2012 amid sluggish winter sales, a new reportshows. Across Connecticut, the median sale price fell in six of eight counties in February and was flat in another. ‘Perhaps a strong spring market will get things back on track, but I don’t see any signs of that yet,’ Timothy J. Warren Jr., chief executive of The Warren Group, said.”
“A little more than 10 years ago, Edythe Russell dropped her hard-earned savings into a pair of $150,000 homes in Arizona, lived in one and rented the other. Just in time for the housing crash. Her renter walked away, her mortgage rate spiked, her income nose-dived and she lost everything. Now she and her two dogs live in a car in Carlsbad. For all her troubles, Russell is not one to grouse or cast blame.”
“‘I shot myself in the foot,’ she said, meaning that the marriages didn’t work out, and her housing bubble investment was an unlucky roll of the dice.”
“In the last decade, Caesarea has absorbed the cream of Israeli high society. Oligarch Valeriy Kogen bought seven huge houses and connected them, forming a single luxury property estimated at hundreds of millions of shekels. Well-known and well-connected businesspeople with a reputation for getting what they want (and throwing their weight around) have chosen the city as their hometown. Caesarea has known better days. Many people talk about a more than 50% decrease in luxury property prices there. While those reports lack factual basis, there is certainly a glut of secondhand properties that make luxury villas a harder sell.”
“The Angolan capital of Luanda is still the world’s second most expensive city for expats after Hong Kong, but rent for office space fell almost 50 percent in the past two years. Rent has fallen for office space and luxury homes in Nairobi, where there’s an oversupply following an exit of expatriates, Business Daily reported. Rent on the high-end Kenyan homes preferred by expats has dropped 13 percent. A four-bedroom executive house rents for $4,100 per month.”
“This will likely hurt high-net-worth investors like pension funds and insurance companies which have spent billions of shillings on office blocks, changing the skyline of areas like Upper Hill in Nairobi, Annie Njanja reported.”
“More questions have been raised about Malaysia’s Forest City project for buyers from China, following Beijing’s introduction of tighter rules to stem the flight of capital from the country. The developer, Country Garden, had reportedly agreed to refund buyers from China caught out by the new capital controls, but a statement from the company late last night appeared to rule that out. ‘In the event of home booking cancellation, we would also like to clarify that cancellation after a sales and purchase agreement has been signed is deemed as a breach of contract,’ Country Garden said in a press statement.”
“Some buyers, already in the process of seeking a refund, have accused Country Garden of dragging its feet or outright denying refunds. ‘I called my sales officer on Tuesday and he could only say that my refund is still on hold,’ said Mr Zhang Guanguang, 27. The teacher from Hefei put a down payment of 110,000 yuan (S$22,300) last year for a 54 sq m apartment. ‘It’s been dragging on for more than a month, and all they can tell me is to wait.’”
“Analysts said even if just a fraction of buyers are after a refund, it may result in a slowdown in the whole development, given fears of a housing oversupply in Iskandar. The Forest City project is the biggest of 60 developments there, and comprises four man-made islands in the Strait of Johor facing Tuas in Singapore. It had RM11.54 billion (S$3.6 billion) in sales last year and sold 15,000 units, with Chinese nationals accounting for 70 per cent of the buyers.”
“There was no question Australia’s property market was in a bubble and apartments, particularly in Brisbane and Melbourne, were on the brink of a ’savage correction,’ Perth deal maker and philanthropist John Poynton warned yesterday. It was easy to get swept up in a deep trough or big bubble, Mr Poynton said. ‘If you go back, whether it’s equity markets or debt markets or property markets, people get hurt by paying crazy prices when there’s not much underlying sustainable justification.’”
“Property developer Nigel Satterley revealed Satterley Property Group had stopped bidding on low-rise sites in Melbourne because it was losing out to foreign buyers. ‘We are very disciplined,’ Mr Satterley said, adding some of the prices paid were simply too high. ‘This is just part of the cycle. I think in Melbourne we are five to 12, we are not far from the top. Sydney, I don’t know enough about … it appears to be very hot. In Asia they know that every capital city in Australia has got a gross oversupply of apartments and there’s likely to be busts.’”
‘It’s a rough time to be employed at a firearm or ammunition manufacturing plant. Remington Arms recently laid off nearly 150 workers at its manufacturing facility in Ilion, N.Y. Remington has been making guns at that location for more than 200 years. Federal Cartridge recently let go 110 employees from its ammunition plant in Anoka, Minn.’
‘The first three months of 2017 have seen both physical and online retailers sitting on a ton of inventory, and a highly competitive promotional environment is driving prices down as well. Smith & Wesson just announced big rebates on some of its most popular firearms to help drive business.’
‘A couple days ago, I received a promotional e-mail from an online sporting goods retailer advertising a brand new, infrared night-vision camo game camera with 8 megapixel resolution for $39.99 from a highly reputable brand. Another e-mail advertised 9mm handgun ammo for 11 cents a round and .308 rifle ammunition for 13 cents per round.’
‘The deals available to anyone interested in any shooting sports right now are incredible, be it hunting, target shooting, archery, tactical, or accessories for any of those categories.’
‘Dad’s investment advice to me as I was growing up was buy low and sell high. We tend to have short memories. Remember what guns and ammo cost just over a year ago? Guns and ammo became an “investment,” and people bought them while they still could.’
It is what happens what Marxists and socialists get elected.
They want to raise taxes
They want to ban stuff
They want to bankrupt industries
They want to make things “fair” and buy votes
And instead they destroy whatever they touch (housing, health care, affordable higher education, etc.)
People respond to their policies.
Coal stocks are doing great now. Why?
Ammo and gun manufactures are not? Why?
I can’t wait for the first banker perp walks in over eight years.
It is not that the ideas are wrong. It is the political system that is the problem. There are always much better ways. To build more housing, we can create tax incentives for the builders. To make health care affordable, we can increase the health care workers by giving tax incentives for the health care education. Instead of making the general education affordable, we can make education affordable only for programs that help students build skills that are most desirable at the moment (again, health care). All “good” policies should attack the supply side, not the demand side. Also all good policies should have a reasonable expiration date to meet the changing demand for the society.
But the current policies are too focused on subsidizing the demand, which inevitably increases the prices. Why? Because they are interest groups that benefit from them. By making loans affordable, banks gain. With increasing home prices, realtors gain. Homeowners seem to gain, but in the long run, they actually lose.
By expanding insurance, with increase demand, the medical industry gain. Just look at doctor’s median salary increase after ACA. If we repeal ACA, with decreased demand, the revenue for the hospitals will decrease. Will doctors receive a cut in their paycheck? Not likely given their strong labor union. The burden will be placed on patients, creating even less demand. Some hospitals will close even when we desperately need more of them to reduce the health care costs.
It looks like people on this blog hate globalism and socialism. However, protectionism is another kind of socialism. It is like saying that we need more high paying jobs for the people. Okay then let us revive the manufacturing industry at the costs of higher prices of the goods for everyone in the country! What is it different from socialism? I agree that it is a much better socialism than giving free check to the poor.
Ideally to solve the problems, we need to make lobbying illegal. Also, we need a strong government (I am not saying big government) that can actually pass a bill that is desirable for the society.
Obama, the greatest gun salesman ever, has left the building.
Gun owners need to step up and support their industry. You can never have enough!
I know people who have so much ammo they won’t need another round the rest of their lives. I don’t know why they didn’t just learn to reload.
True gun nuts don’t buy ammo, they make it. A friend of a friend has reloaded over 10,000 rounds. He said that he was reloading for his grandchildren. Folks like that are preparing for the apocalypse. Cuz after the grid goes down for good and takes bitocoin with it, kids and grand kids will need the rounds to hunt food and fight off the democrats and zombie hordes.
Not really. You can save a ton of money if you hunt/shoot trap often. And you can custom load, lighter for some situations, heavier for others, just to your liking.
I have a friend that has 32 guns and stacks of ammo for the coming apocalypse. He gets mad when I ask him how many he can shoot at once.
fight off the democrats and zombie hordes.
Isn’t that redundant? Have a good day Oxide.
I enjoy reloading 20 rounds or so for hunting season. But I can’t imagine reloading thousands of rounds. Especially if you can really get .308/7.62 for thirteen cents a round.
A-dan, they probably are one and the same. I’m pretty sure the rural people like this (Trump voters almost to a person) have fantasies about triggered Millenials going into panic mode when the SHtF.
Just imagine, they can’t check their likes on Facebook, Instasnap stops tweeting, they can’t find an Uber anywhere, Sbux is fresh out of soymilk… They wander the countryside, desperately searching for safe space, food gone, smartphone gone and — most importantly, self-aggrandizing change-the-world-with-an-app ‘tude gone. They make it to the country… only to be faced by some well-prepped family whose granddad supplied them with 10000 rounds just for this very day.
And yikes… I conjured up that fantasy a leeetle too easy…
you have a good sense of humor Oxide. I was thinking more in line with the fact that the Democratic party at the local level has become one of the walking dead. I still do not see any attempt to reject globalism by the party so it really does not offer anything to white blue collar workers. It is not that the Republicans are presently offering them anything other than reduced beatings each day but I guess that is better than nothing.
Nice conjuring…except I think they expect the easily triggered to shelter and die in place. It’s stronger groups from the city that they expect to turn into bands attempting to plunder the countryside.
oxide I bet you have never missed an episode of the Walking Dead. If you live in the south, i hear ya!
Some guy fantasize about getting rich or dating supermodels. It’s make one wonder who started this way and thinking. It’s possible that you can trace it back to companies that sell prepper supplies.
I know where you live.
Demozombies wont get more than a few blocks from their luxe condoez before their “sustainably constructed” $100+ olukai sandals fall apart, and aint no way they gonna ruin that fresh pedi they just got last week.
I wouldnt be surprised if some (maybe many) would rather take a bullet than wake up without their daily $5 sugar and caffeine fix or smoothie with spirulina, hemp and chia seeds. The horror!
It’s never going to happen.
“But I can’t imagine reloading thousands of rounds. Especially if you can really get .308/7.62 for thirteen cents a round.”
+1
‘If you’ve been thinking about trading up but haven’t taken a close look at the used truck market, you might want to carve out some time. Too many used trucks are gathering dust on dealer lots. Smart dealers are facing the hard truth that they need to sacrifice some of their expected profits to get fresh inventory and make room for trades that reflect current rates.’
‘The problem began in mid-2015, reports Overdrive’s sister magazine Successful Dealer. Too many trucks bought right after the recession have entered the used market, says Chris Visser, senior analyst with J.D. Power Valuation Services. Many are aerodynamic fleet-spec’d models.’
‘An influx of 3- to 5-year-old sleepers has swollen inventories at many dealers. The glut of trucks hit the auctions first, Visser says. “It took dealers six to eight months to realize the supply had changed,” he says. “They lowered prices to compensate.”
‘By January 2017, retail prices for 3- to 5-year-old sleeper tractors averaged $65,910. That was $7,412 lower than the same group a year ago, and with 2.2 percent fewer miles.’
‘The used truck market could get more bloated before it levels out. Arrow Truck Sales President Steve Clough said in September he expects the number of trucks coming into the used market for the first time “will probably peak in 2019 or 2020.” J.D. Power’s NADA report agrees: “The potential returning supply of 3- to 5-year-old trucks is an unavoidable factor that will limit the magnitude of pricing improvements until at least 2019.”
Oh. For a second I thought the article was about pickup trucks, not commercial trucks.
Isn’t there a pretty good demand for used pickup trucks? And I don’t think there’s too much supply of 3-5 year old pickups, unless there are large numbers of lease returns and repos.
Hey Donk.
A sure sign of a slowing economy is less need for trucks to ship goods that is for sure.
Daniel A. Crowman
Is that because I serve crow to people like you?
Of course my good friend….. of course.
El Cajon, CA Housing Prices Crater 8% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/el-cajon-ca-92020/home-values/
Hyperloop all the stuff. Shhhhhh…. it is not for people.
Not looking any better on the commercial property front:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-troubles-at-the-american-mall-are-coming-to-a-boil/ar-BBzscGZ?li=BBnbfcN
a 1980’s 12 story office bldg here in South of Soviet sold for $65 a foot
=ouch
The malls need a new business model. Maybe they can convert to Amazon warehouses.
I keep thinking someone will convert them to cheap apartments to service the demand that’s not getting serviced anywhere else.
Someone already has:
http://www.businessinsider.com/americas-first-shopping-mall-is-now-micro-apartments-2016-2
Granted, this is a *very* old mall, not a modern mall. More like proof of concept. But I suppose it wouldn’t take much to convert a Foot Locker into a decent studio apt. How many folks could you fit into a Macy’s?
How many folks could you fit into a Macy’s?
About as many as you fit in an Oakland warehouse. I hope the wiring will be better.
Well think about places like San Jose where right now young coders live on bunkbeds 4 to a room with a shared bathroom for about $1000 a month. Think of how many of THAT you could fit in a Macy’s?
But here the malls seem to be doing well, though…go figure.
“The malaise has spread even as the economy overall grows stronger and the stock market marches higher”
Wow, the news media just doesn’t get it, do they?
the worse the economy gets the better stocks do?
The Zimbabwe stock market went gang-busters as their economy was destroyed.
Stocks have not been a reflection of the economy for over eight years now.
And you know why.
Are you goign to buy the BIG dip?
DOW 17500?
I will buy when people r sh@tting in their pants.
Well soil my britches… why didn’t I think of that?
Eight years of obama and total democrat control for most of that time…nothing.
And then TRUMP.
—-
Getting Serious Now? Senators Warren, McCain, Cantwell, and King Introduce New Glass-Steagall Act
Wolf Richter • Apr 6, 2017
Earlier today, I reported on a confidential meeting yesterday where White House economic advisor and ex-Goldman executive Gary Cohn had dropped a bombshell by speaking in support of reverting to a version of the Glass-Steagall Act. It had once separated commercial banks from all other financial activities, but was repealed in 1999 – with terrible consequences that ended in the Financial Crisis.
The digital ink on that article wasn’t even dry when Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts), who’d been part of that meeting, announced today that she and three other senators – John McCain (R-Arizona), Maria Cantwell (D-Washington), and Angus King (I-Maine) – would re-introduce “the 21st Century Glass-Steagall Act.”
Reinstating Glass-Steagall has broad bipartisan support from the public and policymakers, including from President Trump, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/06/senators-warren-mccain-cantwell-king-introduce-new-glass-steagall-act/
This is a big development.
+1 Ben. This would be great.
But if there is so much bipartisan support for it, then why didn’t somebody introduce this during the Obama’s second term? All these same players (or Dem equivalents) were in office at the time.
Why do you think?
The obama clinton machine is out of power
Warren +1
The comment that I heard around the time Dodd Frank was passed was that the Democrats finally saw a way to gain visibility into and control over parts of the economy where they previously had no visibility or control.
They used Dodd Frank as the vehicle to pass those regulations under the guise of “protecting the economy”. And they could only do so because they had control over the House and Senate.
That’s why (among other things) Dodd Frank includes provisions that control Venture Capital, and disclosure requirements of transactions between energy companies and foreign governments.
These things had nothing to do with the crash, and don’t make us safer, but nevertheless, the Democrats passed the law that included all these types of provisions anyway, because they could.
Glass Steagall was supposed to NOT be needed, because Dodd Frank included the Volcker Rule.
My conjecture is that once they passed Dodd Frank, it was hard for the same players to support 21st Century Glass Steagall, as it would tacitly admit that Dodd Frank a bloated, piece of sh*t law that didn’t do anything to make the system safer.
I agree 100%.
If something like this is combined with significant increases in capital requirements for the largest banks, the probability of a round of massive bailouts will decrease considerably.
I’m encouraged by Mnuchin and Cohn being in favor of such a thing. And while I dislike Warren, she will be able to get support from lots on the left, while McCain should be able to get a lot of support from the right.
I just hope it doesn’t end up being 1,000 pages long, which would leave enough loopholes to drive trucks through.
They are there to dilute it. It will be at least 3700 pages long.
I beginning to think you are just a crank.
‘Glass-Steagall: Wall Street is not happy with Donald Trump’
‘The GOP candidate’s pledge to bring back Glass-Steagall is an unwelcome surprise for the financial services industry.’
‘19 Jul 2016′
‘Wall Street is not pleased.’
‘A top advisor to presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump said on Monday that the party wants to reimplement Glass-Steagall, Depression-era legislation that was designed to prevent big bank “supermarkets,” but which was repealed in 1999.’
‘After the surprise announcement, which came on the first day of the Republican National Convention, Wall Street sources sounded off on the idea that a Republican would reverse course on policies nearly 20 years old and now taken for granted by big banks.’
‘One lawyer, who works with financial institutions on behalf of a white-shoe firm in New York, called the idea “scary.” Even Wilbur Ross, one of the Trump campaign’s biggest supporters from the finance industry, called it “surprising.” Others on Wall Street who spoke to CNBC used stronger language that can’t be printed.’
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/19/glass-steagall-wall-street-is-not-happy-with-donald-trump.html
I hope the next step they have in mind is not “Oh, now the commercial banks are safe! Let us repeal the Dodd-Frank Act and reduce the cap requirement!”
A major, major development to be applauded, and something that was almost unthinkable six months ago! Like the theme of today’s post - how quickly things can change.
But with friends like Warren & McCain… Dodd Frank was 849 pages, while Glass Stegall was 37. Let’s hope the “21st century version” doesn’t just mean more complex regulations aimed at entrenching advantages for monopoly players. Nevertheless, a positive starting point indeed.
About $100 per square foot…
—–
A robot can print this $32,000 house in as few as eight hours — take a look inside
Business Insider | April 6, 2017 | Leanna Garfield
Building a house completely by hand can be both time-consuming and expensive. A number of home-builders have chosen to automate part of the construction process (i.e. by printing the home’s parts) instead.
A new Ukrainian homebuilding startup called Passivdom uses a 3D-printing robot that can print parts for tiny houses. The machine can print the walls, roof, and floor of Passivdom’s 380-square-foot model in about eight hours. The windows, doors, plumbing, and electrical systems are then added by a human worker.
When complete, the homes are completely autonomous and mobile, meaning they don’t need to connect to external electrical and plumbing systems. Solar energy is stored in a battery connected to the houses, and water is collected and filtered from humidity in the air (or you can pour water into the system yourself). The houses also feature an independent sewage system.
Passivdom’s homes, which start at $31,900, are now available for pre-order online in the Ukraine and the US, and the first ones will be delivered later this year.
Sounds cool, would be great in many of rural areas of New Mexico.
water is collected and filtered from humidity in the air
George Lucas is gonna sue for patent infringement.
True. First it needs to imagined and then it can be built. Why we need different types of people in the world to make it work. Both dreamers and doers have a role. PS not dreamers in the Obama sense, a lot of them are MS-13 so they are more a nightmare than a dream.
Denver is soooo overpriced right now:
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/poll-coloradans-rank-housing-economy-as-biggest-issues-facing-their-communities
Every new car I see with temp tags makes me think HELOC or cash-out refi.
Median household income is less than $60,000 here, in case you forgot
Lots of coastal towns in CA with even higher housing costs and lower median income.
Back to local, parochial interests.
Metro DC and Northern Virginia are s’pposed to house lots of people whose livings depend on the govt. I for sure am one of them. The multiplier effect estimates range from 1:5 to 1:40, govt employees:civilian employees (systems integrators, defense contractors, other suppliers).
So when are all of us plain folks going to turn over their existing housing and go back to wherever the living is easier? Does not appear to be any sign of it so far. Although I would not mind another housing market correction, it doesn’t appear likely anytime soon, with headlines like this:
Market Trends in 20191 (Reston, VA)
• Median listing price: $445,250, up 16.9% from February
• Median listing price per square foot: $243, up 2.7% from
February
• Median sale price-to-list price ratio: 98.9%
• Number of active listings: 124
• Average number of competing offers on (our brand’s)
listings: 1.0
Sigh. Makes one wonder whether to buy now or be priced out forever. It’s a supply problem. DISCLOSURE: Personally, I want to move to a more dog-friendly neighborhood, but it seems like I’m the only one around who’s wondering when the cutbacks-and-ripple effects are going to translate into “available inventory”.
Thanks for any insight.
There’s something easier than a gov job?
Professor ?
LOL! you mistake my meaning, sir. I am one of the Great Unwashed, soldiering on in Engineering as a defense contractor. Interesting for sure - by no means easy.
I don’t know about DC, but in my town, I observe a rapidly increasing number of rental listings for SFH and townhome. Also, I observe apartment rents dropping.
Here’s what I think has happened and will be happening.
1. Wealthy middle-class baby boomers are now lost where to invest their lifelong savings because the stock market and housing market are both in serious bubbles. Moreover, the bond yield is too small to satiate their increased appetite for a return they saw in 2016.
2. Some of them may be thinking the housing market is less risky and cash out their stock to buy a house to rent.
3. According to the media, the general trend is that the market has less institutional investors and more of those small investors.
4. The homeownership rate is historically low, meaning that there are more investors in the market than ever.
5. The Fed is now increasing the rates that (hopefully) means the end of excessive quantitative easing.
6. At the end of this year, all the speculative elements on tax reform and Dodd-Frank reform.
7. Whatever happens, the market will adjust and become more stable.
9. With rising rates, home prices will be stabilized after all the speculative elements are gone.
10. With the oversupply of apartments and SFH rentals, those small investors will have a difficult time finding the rent. Even if they find one, they will see a high turnover of tenants because, in big cities, tenants are spending >50% of their income on rent.
11. These small landlords will find that operating their properties too much work for the small return.
12. Some will then start selling. Inventory increases, house prices fall and this will scare other investors, creating a chain effect. The downfall will be rather sudden.
13. Basically, homes are physically and emotionally more liquid for investors. Once the house prices start to fall, those who are using a high leverage on speculation will be the first to sell.
14. This is just my intuition with little base.
remember this:
The price you pay will dictate future returns.
A little blurb from cnbc on what the Fed could buy, if/when they sell their 4.5 trillion set of bond + MBS assets.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/06/what-can-the-fed-buy-with-its-behemoth-balance-sheet.html
Janet could buy a real nice oven to bake cookies, or… they could just write a check to each US citizen.
Realistically, though, the Fed wouldn’t just dump 4.5 trillion in bonds + MBS, all at once, right? Wouldn’t that crush those markets? I don’t know if they said it or not, but I would guess they would sell in smaller chunks over time. It could take a while because they have so much. If that is the case, it would mean to expect a large and persistent seller in the bond + MBS markets for a long time.
It will be like emptying a pool w a thimble
Well they’ve been a long term persistent buyer for the past decade or so, and now they are the seller (or so they say, who knows).
Maybe I am being dumb, but why do they have to sell at all? Why not just hold onto everything until maturity? What happens to the money investors pay the Fed when they buy the bonds from them? Does it disappear from the economy?
Their plan is to not buy more when the securities mature.
OK. I was under the impression the Fed may start selling the bonds they own.
I thought they had stopped or was going to stop recycling the interest payments they receive into buying more bonds, but I could be wrong.
It does look like, if the Fed sells bonds, it results in a decrease in the money supply. So if ever do sell those trillions of bonds they own, it would be a pretty big decrease in the supply of money. Or maybe I am just totally wrong.
Looks like the Fed is “thinking about it” (they call it ‘balance sheet normalization’). I found this recent blog summary about it, quoting different Fed people on the subject.
http://www.ino.com/blog/2017/03/what-happens-when-the-fed-starts-selling/
This was from one of the Fed governors, talking about what could happen if they announced a plan to sell their bonds:
““While it is likely the announcement of that plan will not trigger much of a market response, we don’t know that for certain,” he added, ominously. “The announcement of our balance sheet plan could trigger somewhat tighter monetary conditions. In that case, that announcement could be viewed as a substitute for a federal funds rate increase, whose magnitude is uncertain. After it has been published and the market response is understood, we can return to using the federal fund’s rate as our primary policy tool, with the balance sheet normalization under way in the background.””
They just want to get out of the big dark forest they’ve walked into as soon as possible.
Well, it seems like, even if the Fed kept the bonds to maturity, it will still be deflationary to the money supply when the principal is repaid at the end of the bond durations. The Fed probably owns a mixture of 5, 10, and 30 year Treasuries they have been buying over the past 10 years or so, so all of that will come due for the principal repayments, in the coming years, which should lower the supply of money. It’s like… what was once inflationary, becomes deflationary.
Of course the Fed could probably offset that deflation by doing more rounds of bond-buying in the future, to avoid any nastiness that might happen. Or, perhaps they could simply refuse to accept principal repayments for the maturing bonds they already bought… basically tell the government, “Don’t worry about paying me back.”. That would be a permanent injection of money.
If you get sub $5 packets from Chinese r u a globalist,if so count me in.
Are drugs that cheap in China?
I hope you folks have insurance on the downside. It is cheap as h@ll right now.
When Galbraith wrote, The Age of Uncertainty, he had a picture section devoted to world capitols. They all looked the same, so he didn’t label them. I’m looking at the villas below for $500/night thinking of five resorts that look the same.
In Manhattan for $500/night I have museums, theatres and expensive food.
What is there to do in Iskandar?
http://www.elitehavens.com/villa-iskandar-villa/sesehtanah-lot-bali-indonesia.aspx
Frisco, CO Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY
https://www.zillow.com/frisco-co/home-values/
The battered American retail industry took a few more lumps this week, with stores at both ends of the price spectrum preparing to close their doors.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-07/stores-are-closing-at-a-record-pace-as-amazon-chews-up-retailers
of course RIP don rickles….we were raised not be offended by such outrageous humor
http://clashdaily.com/2017/04/lmao-todays-pussified-culture-don-rickles-jokes-illegal/
ron white w/a cigar and glass of hard liquor.
There’s still tons of news articles coming out of both Australia and Canada about their bubbles. The tone has definitely changed. It’s no longer, “is there a bubble?”, but now openly admitting it, and speculations on what to do about it, if anything..
This guy thinks the Australian correction won’t be orderly, and it’s too late to turn the knobs and levers at the control panel of the universe to do anything about it.
http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/housing-correction-wont-be-orderly-20170407-gvfrg4
“”Regulators have come to the party three or four years too late. They should have tackled negative gearing, not cut rates as much and focused on mortgage underwriting standards. Had they done so we would be in a position to manage the situation,” said Mr North, who runs research house Digital Finance Analytics.”
“”I have a nasty feeling we are passed the point of being able to manage this. There are not enough levers available to regulators to pull it back in line. I can’t see anything other than a significant correction. It’s not a question of if, but when.”"