April 17, 2017

The Quick Ups And Downs Are Not Healthy

A report from the Star Tribune in Minnesota. “Mike Petefish already has the planter hooked up to his tractor in his farm yard, staged next to field cultivators and semis that can haul massive fertilizer tanks and large bins with conveyor belts called seed tenders. Petefish, who farms 5,000 acres near Claremont in south-central Minnesota, is ready to plant. But mixed with excitement as a new growing season approaches is anxiety about whether he will end up in the red at the end of the year. Soybean prices have dropped by one-third since 2013 and corn prices are down by nearly half, well below the cost of ­production.”

“‘People can withstand a year or two of losses, but this could be the third year in a row for some farmers,’ Petefish said. ‘I see this as the tipping year.’”

“University of Minnesota Extension researchers reported recently that more than 30 percent of Minnesota crop and livestock producers lost money in 2016. Federal estimates show that average net farm incomes have fallen by nearly half since their peak in 2013, the largest four-year drop in 40 years. February was the busiest month in 10 years for filings at the Farmer-Lender Mediation Program at the University of Minnesota Extension, which helps producers work through financial roadblocks with their bankers.”

“Tighter credit also has brought subtle changes in the real estate market, he said, with fewer farmers able or willing to purchase farmland from retiring producers. ‘A few years ago, every piece of land capable of producing a crop was long gone before you even heard it was available,’ Petefish said. ‘Now there’s rental ground available and some land for sale.’”

“The majority of farmers have been able to figure out financing for this cropping season, said Tom Slunecka, CEO of the Minnesota Soybean Research & Promotion Council, but it hasn’t been easy. ‘Things are really getting tough out there,’ he said. ‘If the prices for commodities stay stagnant, we’ll see a lot of farms go under next year. This year there are a few, and it’s extremely disheartening.’”

The Cavalier County Extra in North Dakota. “The report released in a January survey commissioned by the North Dakota Department of Trust Lands was another indication of just how badly the North Dakota agricultural community has been hit by the recent slump in agriculture. Andrew Swenson, NDSU Extension Service farm management specialist, derived regional and state average cropland values and rents from the published results of the county-level survey.”

“After three years of declining land values, Swenson believes that the land market still is adjusting in the aftermath of an 11-year period, from 2003 through 2013, when cropland values averaged an annual increase of 15 percent, the strongest sustained run-up in cropland values during the past 100 years. ‘Producers are in a dangerous financial environment because crop prices have dropped faster than production costs,’ says Swenson. ‘Agriculture is a competitive industry, and during several years of strong crop prices, which peaked in 2012, producers were willing and able to spend more on production inputs, including land.’”

“He adds, ‘On average, this resulted in a doubling of production costs per acre over an eight-year period, from 2004 to 2012. Overall production costs peaked in the 2013 to 2014 time frame and have been declining but not fast enough to project profits.’”

The Kearney Hub in Nebraska. “There is a lot of truth in the saying that the value of land, or anything else, is what someone is willing to pay. For ag land, who that someone might be depends on how the property fits with an existing farm or ranch operation, whether additional labor and equipment might be required, a prospective buyer’s debt load and/or cash flow, whether more than one buyer is interested, and, most of all in Nebraska, the market price of corn.”

“From Feb. 1, 2015, to Feb. 1, 2016, average land values for all ag land classes surveyed dropped by about 4 percent, to a Nebraska average of $3,115 per acre. The combined average ag land value in the south region, which includes Gosper, Phelps, Kearney, Harlan and Franklin counties, was $4,255 per acre, a decline of 8 percent from 2015. For center-pivot irrigated cropland, the average was $7,240 per acre, a decline of 12 percent.”

“A February report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Ag Credit Survey says the average change in farmland values in Nebraska from the peak third quarter of 2013 to the fourth quarter of 2016 was a decline of 17 percent. Jim Jansen said ag land rent rates peaked in 2014-2015. ‘It’s healthy to see changes in land that reflects current economic conditions, but the quick ups and downs are not good,’ said Jansen, who is part of the Extension Risk Management Education North Central Center.”

From Feedstuffs. “Farmers in most areas of the Federal Reserve Bank’s Ninth District of the U.S. saw good yields in 2016, and for another year, those strong harvests should offset some of the effect of continued low crop prices, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Minn. Lenders responding to the Minneapolis Fed’s fourth-quarter (January) agricultural credit conditions survey reported that farm incomes and capital spending continued to decrease.”

“‘Falling incomes also led to decreased loan repayment rates, while loan demand, renewals and extensions increased,’ the report noted.”

“Dallas Tonsager, board chairman and chief executive officer of the Farm Credit Administration, recently testified before the House Agriculture Committee that, while the Farm Credit System banks and associations are ’safe and sound,’ there are concerns surrounding the farm economy.”

“‘In the farm economy, debt-to-asset levels are rising, while net farm income is declining. Interest rates, while still low, have begun to rise, and crop prices are expected to remain weak through (fiscal) 2017,’ he said. ‘These factors are causing the value of Midwestern farmland to slip. Prices in the protein and dairy sectors are also weak. As a result, the credit quality of the system’s loan portfolio has declined slightly.’”

“‘Most customers are coming in with earned net worth losses and reductions in working capital. We’re doing consolidations and restructures on several,’ a South Dakota lender noted.”

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Comment by Taxpayers
2017-04-17 18:49:31

Local realtor site shows 7% median yoy increase in n vs


Comment by Ethan in NoVA
2017-04-18 06:04:31

People rushing to buy before interest rates go up? My co-worker just bought a house, I guess he makes a lot more than me heh. First time homebuyer (sort of), $580K house I think. It’s out there a ways, almost MD near Leesburg.

I have job interview tomorrow, looking to get bigger salary cause home prices are high. Jobs are out there.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 10:44:27

I did a training in Leesburg at the Xerox training center almost twenty years ago, does it still exist?

Comment by taxpayer
2017-04-18 10:48:46

the next move for N VA is down as EVERYTHING is based on fed spend. Looks more like dod will be hardware refurb so not much $ for N VA and MD is boned.

Comment by oxide
2017-04-18 06:38:10

From yesterday:

Comment by Taxpayers
2017-04-17 15:10:54
Oxide can you give us some boots info on fed workers exiting etc.
The local rags are mum.

A few things:

Agencies were curbing their hiring even before Trump was elected.
Agencies were curbing their promotions, which is driving some of the young and ambitious to find other jobs with more pay.
Agencies are getting old. May Feds are stodgy 62-70 baby boomers. They were supposed to retire at age 56 (which used to be the retirement age), but they have been hanging on for the past 10 years, mainly to subsidize their underemployed Millenial kids for college tuition downpayments grandkids etc. Some agencies are offering incentives for retirement, and these folks are choosing to retire.

Add all that up, and agencies are shrinking by attrition. Therefore, there isn’t much need of actual RIFs, and those are only for support staff like contracting, training, admin etc. Even if there are RIFs among non-admin, there is always a pool of temporary or new hires who go first. So the established specialized and tech staff Feds feel mostly OK about their jobs.

Comment by Taxpayers
2017-04-18 08:57:35

Txt,very consise
No tax increase in fxco,very unusual

Comment by cat shannon
2017-04-18 11:45:51

Following in Japanese steps. The Japanese are way ahead of us in these socioeconomic trends, with one big difference: Japanese have to retire at age 65. That’s why they save to support their kids.

Comment by redmondjp
2017-04-18 14:06:27

My agency still has ability to hire - we hired over 100 people in the past six months. All right out of school with no experience. And we don’t even have enough work for them either. But they were expecting a hiring freeze, so they hired as fast and as many as they could. Working in government is definitely bizarro world, that’s for sure.

How do you know that you’ve been a government worker for too long? When things start making sense!

Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-04-18 14:21:25

“My agency still has ability to hire - we hired over 100 people in the past six months. All right out of school with no experience. And we don’t even have enough work for them either. But they were expecting a hiring freeze, so they hired as fast and as many as they could. Working in government is definitely bizarro world, that’s for sure.”

Sounds just like the B L O A T E D local governments in WA state. A bunch of smug, good-for-nothings who leach off of the taxpayers, and do everything they can to keep the scam going. The first thing they are taught is to say “no” to the people they are hired to SERVE.

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Comment by palmetto
2017-04-17 19:08:14

“Dallas Tonsager, board chairman and chief executive officer of the Farm Credit Administration, recently testified before the House Agriculture Committee that, while the Farm Credit System banks and associations are ’safe and sound,’ there are concerns surrounding the farm economy.”

Aha, the old “the bank is sound” re-assurance. Methinks the guy doth protest too much.

Comment by rms
2017-04-18 06:41:26

Aha, the old “the bank is sound” re-assurance.

Hehe… good catch.

Comment by taxpayer
2017-04-18 11:45:41

it’s a gov bank, of course it’s sound
just hump the taxpayers

hope the Donald can ditch dept of AG completely

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-17 19:32:53

‘Ag journalists have frequently written about the expansion and subsequent contraction of the U.S. farm income, and one of the most astute of these observers is David Widmar, an analyst who writes for Agricultural Economic Insights. In a recent column, Widmar took a look at the latest ag boom-bust cycle.’

‘What may be interesting to Journal-Advocate readers is that, while Colorado didn’t enjoy much of a boom, neither has it suffered the kind of bust that has happened elsewhere.’

‘This is not to minimize the damage done to family farms, especially in northeast Colorado. However, it may give hope to some to see that, while Colorado’s farmers and ranchers have had a severely bumpy ride, their colleagues elsewhere in the country have been riding an economic roller coaster.’

‘Widmar points out the extreme variations that happened, both in the good times and in the bad times. Back during the boom, which built gradually from 2000 to 2004 and then really took off from 2011 to 2013, the biggest increases occurred in what is commonly known as “the heartland.”

‘According to AEI’s figures, the largest increases in farm incomes occurred in the Northern Great Plains states of Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota, and in the Corn Belt of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Michigan. Between the two time periods, farm incomes in Minnesota, Kansas, and Nebraska were up significantly. In the case of these states, farm incomes more than doubled over the time periods spanning 13 years. For example, net farm income in Nebraska went from an average of $2.5 billion to $6.3 billion.’

‘However, Widmar says, it’s important to keep in mind that the ag economy boom wasn’t felt evenly across the U.S. In the central Rocky Mountain states — Colorado, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Wyoming — the ag economy improvement was minimal, while the crescent of states around them — Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas — experienced as much as 167 percent improvement.’

‘And some regions, Widmar points out, missed the farm boom altogether. “This was especially the case in the Southeast and Texas where net farm incomes across these two periods contracted,” he said “In Texas, for example, net farm incomes contracted 34 percent. In fact, ten states had zero or negative farm income growth when comparing the two periods.”

‘Widmar attributes the variations to the mix and types of agriculture within each state and local conditions. He points out that drought stuck a wide swath of cattle country, from Texas up into southeastern Colorado during the 2011-2013 period.’

Just as the net farm income during the boom varied, Widmar points out, so has the contraction. Colorado, for instance, had modest gains and modest declines statewide, but some commodities — cattle, wheat and corn, most notably — suffered wild fluctuations. Next door in Kansas, however, where the boom was a whopping 167 percent, the subsequent decline was 64 percent statewide. While that’s not as bad as the crashes in Illinois and North Dakota, it’s still a bust, by anyone’s standard.’

‘The analyst isn’t particularly rosy in his prognosis, either. “Overall, we expect state-level conditions to be lower when the next round of data is available (later this summer),” Widmar said. “Additionally, areas of the country where net farm incomes fall the most are likely to face more pressure on farmland values and face tougher financial conditions.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-17 19:36:20

From the post:

‘After three years of declining land values, Swenson believes that the land market still is adjusting in the aftermath of an 11-year period, from 2003 through 2013, when cropland values averaged an annual increase of 15 percent, the strongest sustained run-up in cropland values during the past 100 years’

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-04-18 04:55:14

A lot of cropland in North Dakota was shifted to growing corn during the “biotech era”. Go here to see the history of corn prices:


Comment by sod
2017-04-17 20:43:56

Charleston SC and surrounding area continues to be overbuilt:

The remaining acreage of a once-sprawling and historic rice plantation along the Ashley River could soon be growing homes.

A Myrtle Beach development company plans to build 61 single-family houses on 21 acres of high ground at Ashley Hall Plantation in West Ashley.

The city’s zoning allows up to 80 homes on the property, but Wadsten said his firm, which specializes in developments in unique locations, including Jekyll Island in Georgia, is comfortable building fewer houses on the site.

In 1919, Kennerty’s son, William Charles Kennerty, bought the plantation. He died in the 1930s, and the property was divided between his wife, Rosina Kennerty; his daughter, Rosina Marie “Rose Marie” Kennerty Signeous; and his son, William Charles Kennerty Jr. Because of the high cost of property taxes, the Kennerty’s sold off all but a few acres, according to South Carolina Plantations.

From the comments:

The faux concerns from the developers have me close to nausea. Face it developers, you want money and thats all that matters. The inept and ignorant clowns who are running [aka ruining] this city all ought to be fired. But perhaps we all should look on the bright side: maybe the kind developers will erect one of those beautiful Myrtle Beach ferris wheels on the historic ground they so care for.

Comment by oxide
2017-04-18 07:35:59

Wadsten didn’t offer a price range for the houses. The smallest will be about 2,200 square feet.

In other words, cookie cutter McMansions on 1/3 acre. Could be worse, but ugh. I really miss the wealthy neighborhoods where each house was an individual design.

Comment by snake charmer
2017-04-18 11:23:56

I have relatives in Louisiana, and during my visits enjoy touring restored antebellum-era plantation houses. It seems to me like wealthy people back then were competing to see who could build the most beautiful abode. Fast forward to now, and taste has gone out the window almost everywhere.

In 2150, will anyone want to preserve or restore anything that’s been built in the last thirty years?

That assumes anything will remain standing, of course, given current building materials. What’s the life span of oriented strand board? And I’ve read that anything using rebar won’t be around for more than a hundred years.

Comment by Neuromance
2017-04-18 04:07:17

A good way to encourage social satisfaction is to encourage speculation in people’s largest expenses and other essential expenses.

Comment by snake charmer
2017-04-18 11:26:02

LOL. Remember when rice prices spiked in 2008? I’m guessing Wall Street noticed.

Comment by Neuromance
2017-04-18 19:23:16

Yeah, there’s a tiny group of people who get to gamble with OPM and profit on this stuff. In certain sectors, if they lose, the government steps in to guarantee their profit.

I don’t blame them, it’s a good gig if you can get it. One of the benefits of the financial sector consolidating is taking consumer deposits hostage, and creating vast counterparty risk. I blame the politicians and central bank for enabling it.

Comment by Apartment 401
Comment by rms
2017-04-18 06:50:36

“I actually think that more realistic is that we will rise and rise for a few more years, and then we will probably hit a nice plateau where we won’t see huge rises, but we won’t see huge falls,” Moye said.

Here’s the permanently high plateau.

Comment by Financial Moralizer
2017-04-18 15:02:18

Both Australia and Canada are funny. They can’t make up their minds what they want. They love their bubbles and all the money being made, the taxes being collected, etc. Now they are complaining prices are too high? But they don’t want the bubble to burst either. So they are calling for government and regulators to try to intervene with half-hearted measures, or just jawboning about them, to try to engineer a “forever high plateau”, where prices don’t go up much anymore, but don’t go down either. Yeah, right. It sounds like a drug addict — “just one more, and that’s the last one, I promise this time.”

Comment by oxide
2017-04-18 06:47:24

Soybean prices have dropped by one-third since 2013 and corn prices are down by nearly half, well below the cost of ­production.”

Aren’t corn and soy subsidized by the farm bill? So they’re saying that high land prices drove up the cost of production so much that not even the gov subsidies can make farming corn and soy worthwhile? That’s not good news for the food supply.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 07:00:32

Less retail space certainly will be needed. It is interesting that people discuss this story only in terms of the internet’s impact on brick and mortar. However, that is not a new story and does not explain the rapid decline. What no one mentions in the MSM but I think is a major factor in the sudden increase in store closing is that the minimum wage was raised dramatically in many locations. This aspect does not fit the narrative of the Democratic party. However, due to the minimum wage rise stores that might were marginally profitable suddenly became unprofitable. I do not think the loss of service jobs that do not even keep people off government assistance is a huge problem, if we bring back the factory jobs. In any event one of the more current article on the subject:


Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-18 07:54:23

Grossly inflated prices, rental rates in this case, tend to destroy the economy.

Comment by azdude
2017-04-18 09:08:45

people dont have any equity to spend on clothes and going out to eat.

Comment by rms
2017-04-19 01:32:03

The proverbial ATM is empty.

Comment by oxide
2017-04-18 09:37:51

Notice that most of the stores which are closing are women’s clothing.
Anyone here look at the women’s clothing department at Wal-Mart or Target lately? There’s a junior section of semi-trendy stuff, a plus-size section, an athletic section, cheap shoe section, intimates, accessories… It’s basically a mini-Macy’s. And since no one cares about the quality of fashion and since it’s all made in Chindia anyway (even the Macy’s stuff), why bother with the mall at all?

Really it’s just more consolidation.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 10:39:51

It is consolidation but it has been accelerated by something.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-04-18 16:10:36

No, that’s not it. Amazon has to pay at least the minimum wage as well.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 16:15:54

It was already paying the federal minimum wage. Amazon has very few major back shop operations in the cities that raised the minimum wage dramatically. Its corporate office employees always made much more than even the higher minimum wage. However, many of the retail stores are located in the higher minimum wage cities. The rise in the minimum wage has given Amazon a greater competitive advantage, probably why it was so supportive of raising the minimum wage.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-04-18 17:19:46

For that to be the case, you’d have to see fewer retail closings in areas that haven’t raised their minimum wages recently, which I doubt that you can identify. More importantly, most workers who have benefited from minimum wage increases have benefited due to changes to state laws, not city-level actions.


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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-19 05:34:05

Fine, I agree but we will have the data soon and I think we will see a clear correlation. If you raise the cost of anything you reduce the demand and that includes labor. We do rely on too much consumption in this country and when W was in office everyone agreed that there were too many service jobs and too few factory jobs. Only after Obama came to office were these minimum wage type jobs acceptable as a substitute for factory jobs.

Comment by azdude
2017-04-18 07:10:20

the higher home prices go the more likely you will have to beg for a loan and pay a lot of interest.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 10:42:45

If interest rates go up, housing prices will need to go down. The sale for the last nine years had been on cheap thirty year home loans.

Comment by new attitude
2017-04-18 13:10:22

ABQ/NM is in a depression it seems. The state is broke and crime is on the rise. What is their plan to get out of the hole?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 13:30:46

They do not have a plan they continue to vote for Democrats.

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Comment by rms
2017-04-19 01:40:37

New Mexico also has one of the nation’s highest rates of children born on the dole and out of wedlock.

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Comment by Apartment 401
2017-04-18 08:33:48
Comment by 2banana
2017-04-18 11:55:56

I used to work there back in the day.

A hard core militant union which sabotages the very locomotives they build if they don’t get their way, insane work rules, no way to fire insanely bad union employees, etc.

These union folks were getting extremely well paid and great benefits. Most had nice boats for fishing on Lake Erie. These were the BEST jobs in Erie for anyone with a HS diploma.

No wonder GE is moving to Texas.

The union there has no one to blame but themselves.

They killed the golden goose.

Formerly grand red-brick factories have broken windows and vine-covered exteriors. The local General Electric Co. plant, which makes locomotives for export, has shed almost half its workforce in recent years—1,500 jobs were cut last year, and 950 were moved to Texas in 2013.

Comment by FTHB wannabe
2017-04-18 15:52:42

Unnecessarily polemic article. It would have been a good article without the racial content. All I see from their evidence is that drug overdose is more prevalent than the previous generation and less educated people are less likely to be employed.

Comment by rms
2017-04-19 01:47:21

“He just saw his life as not what he wanted it to be, and he didn’t know how to get it there,” said Sue Johnson, who lay next to her son’s corpse for an hour.

Wow… just wow.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-04-18 09:48:33
Comment by Financial Moralizer
2017-04-18 14:49:33

Interesting. That is a Steve Ballmer project. A nytimes article about it:


Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-18 11:20:35

‘Industrial metals plunged as traders capitulated amid stock market declines and skepticism surrounding the outlook for commodity demand from China and the U.S.’

‘An index of base metals retreated the most since November as Commerzbank said China’s economic growth may decline over the next few quarters. Citigroup Inc. said it’s bearish on the outlook for iron ore amid expectations for global oversupply and a slowdown in Chinese steel demand. Zinc and nickel, both used in steel alloys, plunged by the most this year as U.S. stocks dropped.’

Comment by taxpayer
2017-04-18 11:40:44

10yr 2.18
sum ting wong ?

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-04-18 12:25:28

Wi Tu Lo.

Comment by Obongo
2017-04-18 13:32:21

Bang Ding Ow.

Comment by redmondjp
2017-04-18 14:13:02

Ho Lee (censored)

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Comment by new attitude
2017-04-18 16:33:11

Miso Wong.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 12:49:58

Yes, China is going to “slow” from 6.9% growth to 6.6% growth. Sum ting wong with the belief that China was going to imminently collapse. By lumping China and United States together, they can minimize the fact that there will be no infrastructure bill signed quickly enough to cause the United States to use additional steel this year. The Trump rally in steel was based on this happening.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-18 13:15:52

Infrastructure steel is all domestic by Nucor.

From oil to drilling to geology to housing and now heavy iron… What other topics would you like to put your foot in your mouth about?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 14:42:00

That is why US steel complains so much about Chinese imports, that is why the US media has spent weeks on stories about the pipelines using foreign steel? Sorry you are wrong again thanks for playing.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 14:45:39

Hey but don’t let the facts on long steel get in your way:


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Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-18 15:13:07

Infrastructure steel is all domestic by Nucor.


Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 15:44:17

You can say it over and over but both long and tube pipe is used in construction and a lot of it is manufactured overseas using iron ore that is what the link proves, if you have a contrary link you should post it.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-18 15:55:28

Infrastructure pipe is always domestic. See US Pipe and American Pipe.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 13:03:55


Now, the story does not discuss it but why would China being actually understating its growth:

1. Keeps commodity prices lower. China needs raw resources. by understating its actual growth it “steals” resources at a lower price.

2. Avoids trade friction, if people know how well China’s economy is really doing compared to the rest of the world, they would be more likely to demand tariffs.

3. Allows China to build up military with people underestimating what China is really spending on its military since people do not realize the true contribution China’s military spending to the GDP.

Why not lie on the downside, it is not like the leadership is running for reelection? What does it really gain by yelling to the world look at how well my economy is doing while I trash your economy with my exports. Just consider for a minute the implication that the trash stories on the Chinese economy were planted by the Chinese government for the three reasons stated above. I know far from the consensus but when has the consensus been right?

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-18 14:18:08

Why lie to one’s self? Fanciful convoluted conclusions based on numbers believed to be lies are less than worthless.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 14:47:24

Under estimating growth to get cheaper raw materials makes far more sense. Telling the truth led to $4 copper and $147 a barrel oil.

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Comment by FTHB wannabe
2017-04-18 16:19:52

Hmmm, please enlighten me. How does underestimating the growth get them cheaper raw materials? I think it would negatively effect the value of their currency, which means higher prices for the imports?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 16:27:49

All you have to do is watch any business report when China’s figures underperform commodities drop. Much of the price of any commodity today is based on what people think it will be worth in the future. People are much more likely to store a commodity if they think it is heading up in the future and a small change in demand can lead to a large rise in price. By convincing people that its economy is slowing it has caused people to scale back its estimate of demand in the future which reduces the expectations of the price in the future which reduces the storage demand which reduces the present price. That is the mechanism.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 17:06:07

BTW, the amount of oil in storage is exactly what it was last year at the same time. If you look at the amount compared to 2014 you really do not see much of a change. Commodities move on emotion just like house prices, thus commodity prices doubling or halving is largely based on psychological changes, really not as much supply and demand as people believe. Oil traded for years at $100 barrel because people did not believe the Saudis would allow it to fall. It made a huge mistake in joining Obama’s oil war against Putin. Now, it wants oil higher and no one can increase production enough to offset reduced Saudi production if it wants the price higher bad enough, we will see how much Saudi Arabia wants higher prices.

Similarly, China’s ability to manipulate commodity prices is great. If commodity prices were the same as the top in 2008, China would probably be running a trade deficit. China has a lot of incentive to diminish demand expectations.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-18 17:24:32


New Braunfels, TX Housing Prices Crater 10% YoY


Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-04-18 13:43:33

Frisco, CO Housing Prices Crater 9% YoY


Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-04-18 14:13:15

OT. More confirmation of the utter inhumanity of the .001% (more zeroes?) Heartbreaking at 20 minutes in.

Real Big Money: Revelations by an Insider

Comment by Burned Alive in Tucson
2017-04-18 15:32:15

Heartbreaking at 20 minutes and then gut-busting at 25 minutes when we learn the Luciferians who rule the world are sacrificing children. But our hero here refused to participate in the slaughter, was allowed to live by these monsters for no apparent reason, and is now alive and free to blow the whole thing wide open! Shoot, maybe it is true….but I’m not sure it is a good time to invest in that much tinfoil for my hat, what with Ben’s post on industrial metals plunging.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-04-18 15:44:03

I’m glad you were here to disprove the hoax. What a relief.

I must be having a bad day. I didn’t see the humor in it, as you clearly did.

Comment by Burned Alive in Tucson
2017-04-18 15:50:11

After 30 minutes of staring at those yellow chicle teeth and listening to those lips unnaturally smack, I’m willing to believe he’s a lizard person. Then again, that could just be my exposure to the chemtrails talking.

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Comment by Financial Moralizer
2017-04-18 14:30:22

Central banks and governments have backed themselves into a corner.

There is no way out.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-18 16:19:06

Sure there is, steal our money.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-04-18 16:52:05

I just noticed something on Craigslist…you can’t simply look at the number of listings as an indicator of total available units in a market…many units are listed more than once.


Here is the Marina in SF, for instance.

It shows 308 units available.

However, if you change the word “newest” to “Price” with an up arrow (cheapest to most expensive), you’ll instantly see repeats.


There is a live-aboard boat that was posted on 4/13, 4/14, and 4/15…each time it shows up as one of the 308 overall listings.

There are a couple of studios with cheesy brokers each listed 3 times.

In other words, there aren’t 308 available…somewhat fewer (10%? 20%?).

If these people are too lazy to edit and existing posting (and simply add another), are they also too lazy to remove ones that are leased?

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-04-18 17:04:28

For the Marina listings, it looks like about 60 of the 308 are duplicates (20%).

I just did a similar look at Cleveland…many more are duplicates there…

The worse the market, the more people need to post more than once before the listing is rented.

It would be an interesting study…what percentage of the listings on Craigslist in any given market are duplicates…as a measure of market strength (or weakness).

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-04-18 17:11:11

just looked at a market in Los Angeles specifically for studio/1bd…it says 378 listings, but if you “bundle duplicates” and carve out postings for eviction services, there are only 113 unique listings (all postings fit on one page).

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-18 17:28:19


Thousand Oaks, CA Housing Prices Crater 15% YoY


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