April 22, 2017

Hand-Wringing About A Housing Glut

A report from Money Watch. “If you want to rent an apartment in one of those high-rise buildings going up in major cities nationwide but can’t find one in your price range, this could be your lucky day — or even your lucky year. Rents may slowly be spiraling downward by as much as 20 percent. Jay Rollins, the head of real estate investing firm JCR Capital, is predicting that the booming urban rental market in places such as Denver, New York City and San Francisco may have finally become overbuilt and overbought. ‘A lot of new buildings have come on-line,’ said Rollins. ‘There’s too much, and prices are getting too high.’”

“Rollins’ firm provides financing for acquisitions in the rental and condo markets with both debt and equity. He describes his mini-investment bank as ‘opportunistic.’ Rollins also looks for those who want to take over buildings whose original owners end up over their heads in debt and are forced to sell to someone who would ‘buy it for a dollar in order to make two.’ Simply put: high-end ‘flippers.’”

The Oregonian. “Rent increases have slowed across the metro area and have even fallen in some areas, according to the apartment industry association Multifamily NW. The report comes as new construction has flooded the metro area, giving renters at the top end of the market plenty of options to which to choose. Newly constructed apartment buildings are offering more move-in bonuses, and their established high-end competitors are doing the same.”

“The report said rents fell 6 percent in Hillsboro and 4 percent in both Northwest Portland and Beaverton.”

From NPR Pittsburg. “The demand for new apartments in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh has grown swiftly over the last few years. Developers have met that demand with a tremendous amount of construction, said Barbara Byrne Denham, senior economist at Reis, a real estate data and analytics company based in New York. 
It might seem like both cities have more new luxury apartments than they know what to do with. But is hand-wringing about a housing glut a wise reaction? ‘Yes and no,’ said Byrne Denham.”

“The vacancy rate in Pittsburgh rose from 4.7 to 5.2 percent in the same period. ‘While that looks striking, it’s not alarming,’ said Bryne Denham, noting that new construction in Pittsburgh for 2017 is expected to drop by almost a third, to roughly 1,000 units. ‘So we do see a lot of supply, but it’s not such an alarming rate that we’re going to see empty, empty buildings.’”

The Buffalo News in New York. “Grand Island Supervisor Nathan D. McMurray wants the town to put a moratorium on the development of any new apartment complexes until it has a master plan in place. Oakwood Ridge, a $1.2 million apartment complex at 2984 Grand Island Blvd., with two buildings, each with eight apartments, a total of 16-units, raised an outcry on social media – led by McMurray, who said ‘there’s an absolute oversaturation of high-end apartments on Grand Island.’”

“Oakwood Ridge Developer David Mazur, who also built a similar development, the 32-unit Nottingham Estates two years ago, told The Buffalo News that he abided by all the rules of zoning and even designed his new complex at half the density that he was allowed. He said another apartment complex, Heron Pointe, a 230-unit project on Grand Island Boulevard that is under construction, is what started the issue with oversaturation, not his complex. ‘I do believe if that project didn’t exist they wouldn’t be worried about my 16 units,’ said Mazur.”

The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “Modern apartment buildings have to offer more than cable TV to draw the interest of prospective renters, so developers and designers are working hard to keep pace with the rapid lifestyle changes ushered in by digital technology. Tasked with identifying amenities that could differentiate apartment buildings in this age, a group of graduate students from the University of Houston’s Stanford Alexander Center for Excellence in Real Estate investigated emerging examples and drew up a list of best practices.”

“Developers were keen to pay attention. With a glut in luxury high-rise apartments, competition for residents is heating up and amenities could give innovative landlords an advantage. Workout rooms and swimming pools don’t drive as much renter excitement anymore. So what’s next? According to the students: fingerprint-scan door locks, dedicated facilities for package delivery, building-specific smartphone applications, internet-connected appliances, transportation services and facilities for pets.”

The Journal Sentinel in Wisconsin. “A high-end lakefront apartment development planned for St. Francis has received preliminary city approval after the number of units was substantially reduced. Bear Development LLC now plans to develop 11 two- to three-story buildings, totaling 221 apartments, with enclosed parking. The $30 million project would include three additional buildings with garages, as well as a clubhouse with an outdoor swimming pool.”

“Kenosha-based Bear reduced the unit count after seeing a decline in rent among similar developments in the Milwaukee area because of an oversupply of new apartments, according to city officials. Similar concerns have led to other Milwaukee-area apartment developments being downsized, delayed or canceled. Any city financing help would be provided through new property tax revenue generated by the project. The development’s monthly rents would start at $900, according to city records.”

The Capital Journal in South Dakota. “Two apartment complex owners - Mike and Donna Jean Newton, and Glennis and Mark Zarecky - asked the Hughes County consolidated equalization board for lower tax bills on large apartment buildings. Each got some relief. Mike Newton did not appear before the board, but sent a note: ‘When we built, the city was crying for places for people to live. Now not many people are moving to Pierre. It is difficult to pay these kinds of taxes when you can’t keep apartments full.’”

“Prairie Vista, near Northridge Mall, has one-bedroom and two-bedroom units, billed as luxury apartments, from $800 to $1,050 per month. He’s got the building for sale, listed at $1.8 million, but says he would take less.”

“Glennis Zarecky did appear before the equalization board on Monday. As in the Newton’s case, the owners got some tax relief. A quick influx of apartments has changed some of the dynamic, Zarecky said. ‘I think back and we built ours and opened it up in 2013 and there was an absolute demand for quality apartments. But since then, the Fosters built 24 units and Prairie Vista opened a year or so later than we did.’”

“‘Our vacancy rate in 2016 was certainly twice as high as what we had budgeted for,’ she said. Zarecky said she’s not sure what has changed, except perhaps a certain slice of the market has been met. ‘I think when it comes to that grade and budget of apartments, I think the demand has been met,’ Zarecky said. ‘What I believe is still in demand is more affordable ones. There are a lot of people who don’t want two bedrooms, or can’t spend $700, or $800, a month.’”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-22 10:17:06

‘new construction has flooded the metro area, giving renters at the top end of the market plenty of options to which to choose. Newly constructed apartment buildings are offering more move-in bonuses, and their established high-end competitors are doing the same. The report said rents fell…’

Huh, when the Oregonian writes real estate articles touting the sky is the limit, they find all sorts of colorful quotes and experts to tell us it’s a shortage that’s never going to end. But this article is dryer than dry.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-22 10:21:42

‘Zarecky said she’s not sure what has changed’

It’s a lack of bocci ball court Glennis.

OK, here’s an example of just how nuts this thing is:

‘Seattle Times Article Features Downtown Bellevue’s Recent Real Estate Boom’

‘Average Rents in downtown Bellevue according to Zillow are at an average of $2,540/month, up 35% in the last five years. Home prices in downtown Bellevue, according to the article are up 65% since 2012 to an average of $690,000, many of which include small condos.’

‘Two Lincoln Tower Apartment Updates: At Two Lincoln Tower, the Kemper Development luxury apartments, less than 20% of the 218 units have been pre-leased. The apartments are anticipated to be ready for move-in Fall of this year.’

‘According to Jim Melby of Kemper Development the Two Lincoln Tower apartments cost about $1 million each to build. The high costs come from the high-end finishes, which include quartz countertops, Sub-Zero refrigerators, plus services like wine lockers and valet parking.’


‘apartments cost about $1 million each to build’

Comment by 2banana
2017-04-22 10:59:19

Ha on the Bocci Ball.

There is a German resturant in downtown Denver that has Bocci ball courts.

Free on weekdays.

Whenever I have the urge to play - there it is with good food and beer.

And my rent doesn’t have to pay for it 365…

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-22 11:56:57

“‘apartments cost about $1 million each to build’”


Well folks, the irony here is the first steps in economizing and squeezing out efficiencies at the request of an owner is common wall construction. Hence the $40/sqft plan goes to 34-$36/sqft.

The obvious conclusion is that the person saying it’s a million for an apartment is……. Drum roll please……… Lying.

Comment by redmondjp
2017-04-23 09:05:48

Give it up, Haystacks. Your $/sf numbers are garbage, especially in downton Bellevue.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-23 09:53:34

Even in downtown Seattle my good friend. Even in downtown Seattle.

Kirkland, WA Housing Prices Crater 16% YoY


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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-04-23 23:18:44

Kirkland is not downtown Seattle…

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-24 18:17:32

Boots on the ground data my friend.

King County, WA Housing Demand Craters 17% YoY


Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-22 13:33:17

“When you live at Two Lincoln Tower at The Bellevue Collection, you have arrived.” (from their website)

Well, that right there has got to be worth $5K a month per bedroom.

Comment by rms
2017-04-22 14:58:17

“Well, that right there has got to be worth $5K a month per bedroom.”

Do they have a doorman?

Comment by nolookpass13
2017-04-23 08:52:12

Remember what the doorman said.
Feed your head
(or someone’s bank account)

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-22 10:27:17

‘Multifamily Money-Making 101′

By Dan Gorczycki April 21, 2017

‘Each property type has its obstacles. Retail and office have to deal with fickle tenants where huge work letters are usually required. Hotels and assisted living facilities are operating businesses. On the surface, multifamily seems the most stable property type. After all, there is no shortage of people to pick from if your property is well maintained, well located and priced right. This is no secret and that is why cap rates on multifamily properties across the country have compressed to the 4.5 to 5.5 percent range today from 7 to 8 percent a decade ago. Despite the reduced yields, multifamily investment sales volume set a record in 2016 with $150.3 billion in transactions.’

‘Besides the macroeconomic and demand trends, favorable financing on multifamily is also spurring development. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have loosened their reins, so obtaining 10-year, fixed-rate financing upon stabilization with an 80 percent loan-to-value has become commonplace. These agencies will even allow you to “resize” the loan as soon as one year after closing if you are able to achieve rental growth. Many lenders have recently implemented “bridge-to-agency” programs, which allow for easier construction loans until the borrower is able to qualify for permanent financing.’

‘This is a huge benefit as previously developers had to raise additional equity to cover the shortfall during the construction phase, which would eat into their returns. With interest rates staying relatively low, borrowing 75 to 80 percent of total project costs at sub-5 percent results in huge positive leverage. Generally, developers are building into a 7 to 8 percent unleveraged cash-on-cash return. Once you layer in the leverage and sell on stabilization at a roughly 5 percent capitalization rate, the simple math results in extraordinary returns.’

‘What makes HUD so desirable is that financing for the construction-permanent loan can be as high as 85 percent LTV and the interest rates are sub-5 percent. If that isn’t lucrative enough, that interest rate is fixed for 42 years (including the construction period). This is one of the best-kept secrets in real estate as fortunes have been made by developers simply locking in long-term annual gains for life using loans from HUD.’

‘As far as partnership structures, developers are able to invest as little as 5 to 10 percent equity into any one deal as institutional equity partners can’t get enough of quality multifamily deals with experienced sponsors. While these equity providers will want a 9 to 11 percent preferred return (minimum yield paid before any other distributions), they will often incentivize developers with a sizable “promote” of 20 to 30 percent.’

‘ The “promote” is a disproportionate sharing of the cash flow after a certain return hurdle is achieved by the equity investor. In many cases, a developer can get to a 50/50 split after an 18 percent internal rate of return is attained—not bad if you only invest 5 percent of the equity requirement.’

‘So are multifamily developers worried about a possible recession or slowdown impacting their returns? Hardly. While cap rates will rise almost lockstep with interest rates (usually on a six-month lag), rental apartments are somewhat countercyclical. If people can’t afford to buy homes or are worried about falling housing prices, they are even more likely to be renters of apartments. So barring a depression where rents would plummet substantially, multifamily investment for developers using low interest-rate debt is the elixir in any environment.’

‘Dan E. Gorczycki is a senior director at Avison Young New York LLC where he arranges debt, equity and joint structure capital for all property types, including multifamily.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-22 10:29:07

You know Dan, it sounds just marvelous and thanks for sharing this money tree that you could have just kept for yourself. But:

‘After all, there is no shortage of people to pick from’

On this:

‘favorable financing on multifamily is also spurring development. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have loosened their reins’

You don’t say.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-22 11:43:31

Once you layer in the leverage, you can get stucco!

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-04-22 11:50:20

And if you can position yourself on the correct side of this layered-in leverage you can become filthy rich!

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Comment by Get Stucco
2017-04-22 14:30:11


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Comment by Carl Morris
2017-04-22 11:53:27

So barring a depression where rents would plummet substantially, multifamily investment for developers using low interest-rate debt is the elixir in any environment.

Well…of course that will never happen.

What I like is how it’s inconceivable to them that houses could get cheaper and suddenly their captive audience could live more cheaply in a purchased house. It’s not like it’s never happened before.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-22 12:16:42

Interest rates are lower for SF shack buyers than they are for apartment developers. In greater Phoenix they are building around 10,000 luxury apartments with rents starting at $1,300. One guy worried out loud that you could get a pretty nice house for that.

I wonder if they are drunk yet at that $5,000/month apartment tower in Atlanta?

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-04-22 12:34:28

“This is no secret and that is why cap rates on multifamily properties across the country have compressed to the 4.5 to 5.5 percent range today from 7 to 8 percent a decade ago.”

Gee whiz… a decade ago the 10 year treasury was yielding about 5% and it’s currently yielding about 2.25%.

The spread between the multifamily cap rate and the 10 year treasury is roughly the same, or 2% to 3% over the so-called risk free rate.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-22 13:38:59

“cap rates will rise almost lockstep with interest rates…barring a depression”

I can see this as long as he is talking about the next owner, who will pay him pennies on the dollar for his building.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-04-22 14:39:19

If you can lock in long term mortgage money at today’s rates and plan on holding for the long term, it could be a good income vehicle.

Of course, it seems like every one wants the quick appreciation hit through financial engineering rather than the slow and steady income return through operations.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-22 15:19:59

“If you can lock in long term mortgage money”

From the gospel of Debt Donkey Chapter 1 verse 4.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2017-04-22 17:28:08

Of course, it seems like every one wants the quick appreciation hit through financial engineering rather than the slow and steady income return through operations.

“Operations” has the sound of something where I might get dirty. I’d prefer to make my money without any risk of that.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2017-04-23 10:24:30

Historically, the correlation between cap rates and interest rates is approximately 0.5.

There were times (when inflation was raging), where cap rates were BELOW interest rates…as people expected rents to rise sufficiently to ultimately increase the value of the asset, despite the starting point of negative leverage.

Low rates, combined with GSE support of multifamily owners (why do we do this?) has led to the ridiculously low cap rates in multifamily.

That said, I’ve only seen the ridiculous <5% cap rates in places like SF, LA, NYC, etc. (places where foreign capital will go). In places that are farther out, cap rates are a bit higher.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-23 11:00:52

I saw a brand new six-plex for sale in San Antonio with a 2% cap rate.

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Comment by 2banana
2017-04-22 11:14:13

Buy a house. It is your retirement catch up.


Here’s how much the average family in their 50s has saved for retirement
CNBC | 04/22/2017 | Kathleen Elkins

By age 50, your golden years are just around the corner.

To be financially ready to retire by 67, retirement-plan provider Fidelity Investments says you should aim to have eight times your salary saved by age 60.

Are Americans on track?

According to a report from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), many Americans have some catching up to do. The mean retirement savings of a family between 50 and 55 years old is $124,831. For families with members between 56 and 61, the mean retirement savings is $163,577.

But those numbers aren’t representative of the state of American retirement. Since so many families have zero savings and since super-savers can pull up the average, the median savings, or those at the 50th percentile, may be a better gauge than the mean.

The median for families between 50 and 55 is only $8,000. For families between 56 and 61, it’s $17,000.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-04-22 11:54:49

Buy a house. It is your retirement catch up.

Or it’s your first retirement shovel full of dirt over your casket…the future is still a little fuzzy.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-04-22 11:57:10

“The median for families between 50 and 55 is only $8,000. For families between 56 and 61, it’s $17,000.”

Truly, a nation of dummys.

Comment by Mr. Sunshine
2017-04-22 22:04:20

A nation of dummies? More like a nation that can’t make enough money to save and meet current and future financial obligations. By the time the paycheck rolls around the average family is hammered by the cost of living. There’s not much left over for savings and that’s the reality for most Americans.

We’re these luxury builders thinking most people could actually afford to rent these units? We’re in debt and I look for an upcoming economic collapse soon that will make 2008 look like Disney World. Will be in a major war soon as well. Good luck to everyone!!

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-04-23 05:26:34

“I look for an upcoming economic collapse soon that will make 2008 look like Disney World. Will be in a major war soon as well.”

Mr. Sunshine, indeed. Do you get invited to many parties?

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Comment by rms
2017-04-22 11:59:41

“By age 50, your golden years are just around the corner.”

That leaves 17-years before medicare. Until then sky-high medical insurance costs will destroy any hope of retirement savings.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-04-22 12:24:54

If you take the families that have no savings out of the equation, I wonder what the mean and median values would be.

Obviously the values would be higher than the $163,577 mean cited for families with members between 56 and 61.

Does anyone have a data source for the median and mean retirement values (by age) for people who have retirement savings?

Comment by azdude
2017-04-22 13:21:01

most folks will give all that money they saved to the healthcare shysters.

Comment by scdave
2017-04-22 13:47:08

most folks will give all that money they saved to the healthcare shysters ??

If the likes of Ryan get their way privatizing the safety nets you likely correct.

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Comment by scdave
2017-04-22 14:30:10

You = Your I needed to correct that before the vigilante vocabulary sheriff (Phoney) corrected me.

Comment by rms
2017-04-22 15:08:28
Comment by phony scandals
2017-04-22 15:38:06


What up Dawg

Actually a couple of weeks ago the vocabulary SWAT Team nailed me on am error that I had corrected myself.

It came from a couple of liberal posters and included a reference to exceptional Americans.

But you right, you’re point has been taken and your never going to here :) any of that from me again.

Comment by scdave
2017-04-22 15:59:50

Actually it should be “you’re.” ??

LOL. Chit. I can’t even get it right the 2nd try.

and your never going to here :) any of that from me again ??

Does that include the dog up the mountain also ? 🤠 LOL. I kind of had a brain fart there didn’t I.

Comment by phony scandals
2017-04-22 16:39:05

You’re good scdave

Just one thing, if you happen to be an NFL GM do NOT draft Joe Mixon.



Don’t let your daughter or any girl you know go out with that pantywaist in the fancy black and white pants either.

He should be jailed on Limp Wristed Wimp charges.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-04-22 14:26:52

Or in case you get caught going long house at a bubble top, it’s your ketchup for a dinner entree every night of your retirement.

Comment by Taxpayers
2017-04-22 16:36:38

Only gov workers can retire

Comment by azdude
2017-04-22 11:15:15

you make money on the buy side my friends.

Comment by 2banana
2017-04-22 11:27:24

Just watched this on Amazon prime.

It was very bad to be on the buy side.


Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-04-22 12:01:25

“you make money on the buy side my friends.”

You make the easiest money by positioning yourself between the buyer and the seller.

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-04-22 11:24:12

People with mortgages can’t afford to ski here:


Loveland got over a foot of fresh in the last 48 hours, the global warmism isn’t happening here on Earth Day…

Comment by 2banana
2017-04-22 11:30:55

So what…you can’t paint your walls any color you want to.

Plus….tax deductions…


Comment by Financial Moralizer
2017-04-22 11:56:21

The rental apartment complex I currently live in, they accommodate people with the painting urge. Management allows tenants to paint *one* wall in the living room to any color. Everything else is your typical flat white and you can’t change that. But you can paint one wall. It’s cool they allow that.

Back when I owned a house, I did some repainting but kept with a neutral color, because I knew, some day I’d have to sell the house, and having purple walls makes it harder to sell.

Comment by 2banana
2017-04-22 12:01:35

Unless you sell it to a Prince fan…

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Comment by rms
2017-04-22 12:06:28

“But you can paint one wall. It’s cool they allow that.”

Gotta go Pollock on that wall.

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Comment by azdude
2017-04-22 14:53:37

depressing apartments

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-04-22 12:07:06

“Loveland got over a foot of fresh in the last 48 hours …”

You and your children should hurry up and enjoy the snow while you still can …


Comment by 2banana
2017-04-22 11:39:37

The fake science of political junk science.

And the solution is always bigger and bigger government, more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes.


13 Most Ridiculous Predictions Made on Earth Day, 1970
Ricochet | 4/21/2017 | Jon Gabriel

Saturday is Earth Day — an annual event first launched on April 22, 1970. The inaugural festivities (organized in part by then hippie and now convicted murderer Ira Einhorn) predicted death, destruction and disease unless we did exactly as progressives commanded.

Sound familiar? Behold the coming apocalypse, as predicted on and around Earth Day, 1970:

“Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.” — Harvard biologist George Wald

“Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.” — Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich

“Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born… [By 1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.” — Paul Ehrlich

“It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” — Denis Hayes, Chief organizer for Earth Day

“Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions…. By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.” — North Texas State University professor Peter Gunter

“In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution… by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half.” — Life magazine

“At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.” — Ecologist Kenneth Watt

“By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate… that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, ‘Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, ‘I am very sorry, there isn’t any.’” — Ecologist Kenneth Watt

“[One] theory assumes that the earth’s cloud cover will continue to thicken as more dust, fumes, and water vapor are belched into the atmosphere by industrial smokestacks and jet planes. Screened from the sun’s heat, the planet will cool, the water vapor will fall and freeze, and a new Ice Age will be born.” — Newsweek magazine

“The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.” — Kenneth Watt

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-04-22 12:01:50

When Leonardo DiCaprio starts riding the bus around Los Angeles, I’ll believe he is an “environmentalist”

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-04-22 12:37:23

Al Gore has “LEED Certified” his 10,000 square foot home.

Such hypocritical bullsh*t.

I’ll bet DiCaprio drives a Prius to the hanger that houses his G5.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-04-22 12:13:58

Here’s a list of 107 failed climate predictions …


Comment by Taxpayers
2017-04-22 16:41:14

We already froze to death in 1978 per time mag

Comment by MightyMike
2017-04-22 16:49:29

organized in part by then hippie and now convicted murderer Ira Einhorn

Some guy I never heard of was a convicted murderer? I guess that we should reverse everything accomplished by the environmental movement, put lead back in gasoline, and go back to the days where the air was unbreathable in many cities and that river in Ohio caught on fire.

“It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” — Denis Hayes, Chief organizer for Earth Day

There have been a few mass starvation events since that prediction was made, such as Ethiopia in the early 80s.

This is opposition to environmental protection is just part of corporate agenda. Cleaner air and water and so forth has not been good for the bottom line of many businesses.

Comment by 2banana
2017-04-22 21:39:43

I like to tell folks about Earth Day’s founder Ira Einhorn. He murdered his girlfriend and kept her body in a trunk in his closet for a couple of years. When the police were about to search his house he took off for France and lived there because France refused to extradite him when they thought he might be facing a death penalty in America.

He was a model progressive.

Comment by LI LI Land
2017-04-23 08:08:55

re: Ethiopia -that was political and cultural, NOT environmental.


“The famines that struck Ethiopia between 1961 and 1985, and in particular the one of 1983–85, were in large part created by government policies, specifically the set of counter-insurgency strategies employed and so-called “social transformation” in non-insurgent areas.”

Comment by oxide
2017-04-23 15:34:32

There’s a theory out there that the famine in 1980’s Ethiopia was caused by American air pollution (SOx and NOx, not CO2) changing the wind patterns in East Africa, bringing on a drought. Ironically, the drought ended when the US outsourced its energy-intensive manufacturing — along with the pollution — to China, who in turn are now changing the wind patterns and causing droughts in Australia.

The funny thing, I didn’t hear about mass starvation in Australia. Maybe it’s because Aus doesn’t have a corrupt government, non-stop civil wars, and 6 children apiece.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-22 11:41:42

‘Rollins’ firm provides financing for acquisitions in the rental and condo markets with both debt and equity…Rollins also looks for those who want to take over buildings whose original owners end up over their heads in debt and are forced to sell’

Over their heads? Forced to sell?

‘to someone who would ‘buy it for a dollar in order to make two.’ Simply put: high-end ‘flippers.’

Because Jeebus knows you wouldn’t want to hold these cash bleeding dogs.

Comment by 2banana
2017-04-22 11:44:28

Sounds like this reality show:


Comment by azdude
2017-04-22 11:50:29

somebody has gotten really good at using short sellers to send the markets higher.

Who might that be?

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-04-22 12:12:48

Takoma Park, MD Housing Prices Crater 13% YoY


Comment by Taxpayers
2017-04-22 16:43:40

A pure gov lib collectivist hood n of dc

Comment by oxide
2017-04-23 11:46:01

Tru dat. But they do a good job of maintaining those beautiful Queen Anne and Craftsman houses.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-22 15:18:06

Far better numbers as a percentage of GDP than that of the US as my next link will show but big trouble in little China is brewing:


Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-23 12:29:40

China GDP is a lie.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by FTHB wannabe
2017-04-22 20:29:20

Hmmm, interesting. Only 2.3% rise for one to four family residence despite the gross appreciation. Some people, most likely landlord and move-down buyers, are putting a lot of cash into the SFH market.

Comment by azdude
2017-04-22 15:49:56

I buy houses

Comment by JSandusky
2017-04-22 16:25:52

Saw this comment in another web site. Does anyone know if it’s true?

“125 million people in full-time jobs supporting the whole kit and caboodle of the U.S. economy”. And 50 million of those 125 million are Government employees/contractors paid for by the 75 million private sector workers, of whom many are minimum wage earners.”

Comment by MightyMike
2017-04-22 16:53:35

It doesn’t make any sense, even by conservative standards. Do you remember when mitt Romney stated that 47% of the population pays no income tax? That group would have to include most minimum wage workers.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-22 18:11:34

I think he didn’t say that at all, rather “they” said he said that and so it became the the news.

Comment by palmetto
2017-04-22 18:40:32

Here’s the video of him saying it.


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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-23 06:25:58

I stand corrected. I only remembered the first part.

Comment by palmetto
2017-04-23 07:44:34

LOL, I only remembered the first part, too, and went looking for the video to back you up and lo and behold, there was the statement in the second part of his rant about the 47%.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-04-23 10:30:27

I wonder if the Russians were behind that leak.

When Mitt’s comments were taped and released without his permission, that was A-OK with the left.

But when Podesta’s e-mails were released without his permission, it’s an international disaster.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-23 11:50:26

I didn’t find anything offensive about that comment by Romney. It was logical and not insulting in the least, unless you think not having to pay income taxes is a dirty secret. Yet the rich liberals screamed like a stuck pig.

As for Podesta, that piece of excrement probably didn’t see anything wrong with what he said, and the rich liberals screamed about it seeing the light of day.

Comment by palmetto
2017-04-22 17:09:55

I saw something about that earlier today, but to be honest, I really don’t believe any published statistics anymore. Could be more, could be less. Where’d they get their info, .gov?

Anyway, that doesn’t include the massive fines the US extracts from corporations, especially banks, for this or that transgression. It’s become a cost of doing business. I’d like ta know what happens to that money, wouldn’t you?

Comment by MightyMike
2017-04-22 19:37:26

There also have to be quite a few retired people who pay income tax.

Comment by FTHB wannabe
2017-04-22 20:50:04

I just got curious and digged into the BLS:

The below is total US non-farm employment (in thousand):
CEU0000000001 2016 M04 143894
CEU0000000001 2016 M05 144525
CEU0000000001 2016 M06 145182
CEU0000000001 2016 M07 144203
CEU0000000001 2016 M08 144441
CEU0000000001 2016 M09 145084
CEU0000000001 2016 M10 145969
CEU0000000001 2016 M11 146393
CEU0000000001 2016 M12 146158
CEU0000000001 2016 M13 144306
CEU0000000001 2017 M01 143273
CEU0000000001 2017 M02 144279 p
CEU0000000001 2017 M03 144949 p

Now below is the total government employment:

CEU9000000001 2016 M04 22578
CEU9000000001 2016 M05 22538
CEU9000000001 2016 M06 22106
CEU9000000001 2016 M07 21000
CEU9000000001 2016 M08 21202
CEU9000000001 2016 M09 22237
CEU9000000001 2016 M10 22657
CEU9000000001 2016 M11 22778
CEU9000000001 2016 M12 22636
CEU9000000001 2016 M13 22223
CEU9000000001 2017 M01 22169
CEU9000000001 2017 M02 22614 p
CEU9000000001 2017 M03 22691 p

I guess the numbers may not contain the contractors. If you trust the number, it is not as bad as what you heard, but 15.7% whoa. This is still a lot.

Comment by taxpayer
2017-04-23 08:37:52

state n local soviets is 4.6% w school workers

their raises = your rent increases

Comment by palmetto
2017-04-22 17:37:02

Totally OT, but I wuz just passing through the living room where the TeeVee is tuned to some station that plays re-runs of old shows. I paused long enough to watch a clip of The Man from U.N.C.L.E. I don’t know what the whole set-up was, but Napoleon Solo is in a rather opulent patio room with some blonde and an Arabian prince or king who kind of looked like George Hamilton, in a turban and embroidered vest over a turtleneck. They’re all having a conversation and Solo makes some sort of a quip and walks outside into the evening. The Arabian guy turns to the blonde and says “Brash American. I wonder if it’s really true that they start those riots all over the world.”

Wut? They’re joking about this back in the 1960s?

Comment by sod
2017-04-22 18:29:21


The ant scene from Barcelona.

Comment by palmetto
2017-04-22 18:36:33

Heh, never saw that movie, now I’ll have to check it out.

I do that to red ants all the time. We’re lousy with them here in Fla.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-04-22 20:08:56

Jeez, I’d had it with roaches in NYC. Waterbugs, don’t get me started. They were like tanks. Finally solved it by caulking every cabinet corner and any other opening I could find. Afterward, I did laugh when I saw one coming in under my entrance door from the hallway.

The waterbugs in Las Vegas are weak. I’m not exactly okay when they show up, but you’ve got to absolutely smash a waterbug in NYC to put them down.

Palmetto - don’t they call them that in Fla.?

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Comment by palmetto
2017-04-22 20:31:58

Yes, palmetto bugs, big-arse flying roaches. Ugh.

Comment by whirlyite
2017-04-22 22:11:46

Boric acid - gets ‘em every time. Trust me, it works.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-04-23 05:42:10

Many years ago I moved to the Tampa Bay area from NY, and arrived a day or so before my furniture, so the rooms looked a lot bigger because they were empty.

Looking across the empty living room to the sliding patio doors, I saw a palmetto bug crawling by the edge of the patio door. It looked like the biggest cockroach I had ever seen (remember - I just moved from NY).

All of the sudden, it started flying towards me (OMG - they can fly!!!). Giant flying cockroaches… welcome to Florida.

I nearly soiled myself.

Comment by aqius
2017-04-23 07:36:54

that’s true. they will fly DIRECTLY TOWARDS YOU like a slow buzzing icruise missile.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-04-23 11:09:39

An apartment I had in NYC had a plumbing problem and the super decides that it would be easier (for him) to install a little door to access the pipe. I was inundated with waterbugs from that day forward. I had to turn the lights on in every room I went into to avoid stepping on one. I was totally freaked out. I lined the baseboards with Roach Motels as a first line of defense and always had a can of Raid and a broom nearby. I was jousting with one and it crawled up the broom handle straight at me. I moved.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-23 12:32:38

In Bayou country many people welcome little chameleons to live in their house and eat the “tree roaches”.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-04-22 20:00:46

The Man from U.N.C.L.E.

I’d say yes. Looking at the definitions of conspiracy, most include planning an “illegal act”. Others say it’s just when parties get together and plan something secret (and we all know that doesn’t happen.)

Loved that show.Watched it faithfully as a little kid.

That could explain my belief in all things conspiratorial ;-) Also too much reading/watching dystopian science fiction.

Comment by palmetto
2017-04-22 20:39:21

I watched it too, when I wuz a pup. I wasn’t old enuf to really follow what was going on, though. I thought it was just a couple of cool guys having some spy adventures.

That line about starting riots all over the world startled me, though.

This is interesting:

“The series, though fictional, achieved such cultural prominence that props, costumes and documents, and a video clip are in the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library’s exhibit on spies and counterspies. Similar U.N.C.L.E. exhibits are in the museums of the Central Intelligence Agency and other US agencies and organizations gathering intelligence.”


Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-23 09:19:36

‘That could explain my belief in all things conspiratorial’

Did you see the episode where a small group of financial elite ruled over a global trade regime, living far above the means of ordinary people, and found themselves challenged by a populist candidate for president? Then they used a deep state body of spy organizations who illegally collected every message and conversation on the globe (sounds crazy, but it’s fiction) from a futuristic information grid on the dubious grounds of a never ending global war on terrorism, in order to defeat this candidate. And when against all odds he won, continued to seek to undermine the new president even though he supposedly was in charge of the government that contained the spy organizations? Far fetched I know, but Hollywood had some great writers back then.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-23 09:32:01

And despite all that, if the election were held today, Trump would beat Clinton by an even greater margin than he did last time. He would even win the popular vote:


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Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-04-23 09:45:23

Far fetched

Gawd, that would be an awful system to live under. Maybe most people wouldn’t notice (until the beer is gone.)

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-04-22 19:18:54

Monterey, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% YoY


Comment by Taxpayers
2017-04-23 05:05:28

If you have a commercial building assessed at 250soft and one just sold for $65 ,how hard is it to get a break on taxes ?

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-23 05:23:32

What happens when you build it for $45 a square?

Comment by azdude
2017-04-23 06:35:06

joanie has passed away at 56. Seems way to young.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-23 05:17:35

How China is controlling its housing bubble:


About three to four years ago when this board was red hot with predictions of China’s imminent demise, I stated that China was not imminently going to implode but Brazil was going to slip into recession. I think China still has around eight years to stop adding to its debt but I think Canada is not as bad as Brazil was back then. I have been thinking about what that means for US pricing. Initially, I could not see much of impact beyond places like Arizona, Florida and some of the New England states where the Canadians like to invest their housing equity. However, I think, now, that the psychological impact of the Canadian implosion on Chinese investors might be the spark that causes a Californian inferno. With the high tech social media bubble beginning to deflate and Californian coastal properties as bad or worse than the last bubble, if the Chinese would only pull back a little they might create a downward spiral in housing prices which would create a negative feedback of a declining overall economy that would cause a Californian crash. Just my happy thoughts for the day.

Comment by taxpayer
2017-04-23 08:34:21

CA will take a hit when bubbles housing and tech pop. They have 480 million in state retirement bennies UNDER-funded.
Dems always bail gov nnions so they are doomed. I*L will go the same way and sooner.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-23 09:26:07

Error: I think California is now as bad as Brazil.

Comment by azdude
2017-04-23 05:22:57

it feels like stock and home prices wont go down so you might as well buy again.Its quite odd how fast this happened after the last bubbles about took out the global economy.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-23 07:45:49

The bubbles are built by ever increasing debt, so the risk becomes greater over time. You’re in a game of Russian Roulette and you want to pull the trigger because it didn’t go off last time.

Comment by azdude
2017-04-23 08:22:18

debt =claim on future money

what happens when too much debt is created to keep up with the future money?

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-23 11:41:39

Some of that future comes due every day. It when you already traded away what is due today that default kicks in.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-23 06:18:46

Makes you wonder how much of its wealth is in US real estate and my nomination for the ugly azz skyline award:


Comment by azdude
2017-04-23 07:47:33

“In a free market, the prices of goods and services will tend to steadily decline over time. That is the inevitable result of increasing productivity.”

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-04-23 07:49:32

Silverton, OR Housing Prices Crater 12% YoY


Comment by taxpayer
2017-04-23 08:30:41

speaking of silver- is there a silver miner that’s not a totaL BASKET CASE?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-23 09:50:28

I have made some decent money with HL the last few years but only because I write call options when it surges and then wait for them to expire worthless when the PTB hit silver and gold since it threatens fiat money. You just have to remember the PTB are supporting housing and the general stock market and especially high tech stocks and suppressing the metals. Some day they will lose control and you will want to own the metals stocks but you have to trade some upside for a cash flow now.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-04-23 10:11:47

For any of you pukes that care, here’s a 21 minute Frontline video that features that fine and outstanding American, Jon Corzine.


Comment by 2banana
2017-04-23 11:22:13

Jon Corzine.

At one time was obama’s largest campaign “bundler.”

Is there any wonder why he is not in jail and got to keep his hundreds of millions?

And we wonder why Trump won.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-04-23 10:12:51

“Bay City Real Estate Broker Charged With Embezzling Nearly $100K


Comment by Get Stucco
2017-04-23 10:56:36

“But is hand-wringing about a housing glut a wise reaction?”

Time to get out the hand lotion again.

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-04-23 11:01:55

anyone follow shelly palmer???

I’d Pay You $500,000 a Year, but You Can’t Do the Work
by Shelly Palmer | April 23, 2017


Comment by drumminj
2017-04-23 13:37:40

Not sure what to take from this. Yes, the bigger tech companies can certainly pay more — I’ve seen that with my peers who have gone to them, and in my own recent job hunt. However, there’s something to be said for the opportunity to help build an organization, which I think a lot of good tech folks want to do as well, which isn’t available at the big tech companies.

Honestly, I still struggle to see the appeal of all of these frameworks/libraries. Can they help? Sure, in some ways, but the come with extra overhead, maintenance, bloat in code, and encourage lack of understanding of what’s really going on “under the covers”. So many folks learn to just go through the motions, and “just grab a package” to do simple, mundane tasks.

To the article, I think part of the issue is looking for folks just with specific tool experience. Just because you’re familiar with React, Redux, ES6, D3, etc, doesn’t mean you can build a quality product for what any company does. In fact, I’d say just the opposite — any of these are easy to learn, and if one doesn’t have a more general foundation, they’re likely to try to use these frameworks for everything, even when not appropriate and when not the best solution.

The “top tier” talent could build these frameworks, or sub-sets of them — from scratch if needed to suit their product/needs.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-04-24 10:29:21

I just shared that on FB over the weekend because I thought it was interesting that he seemed to be saying the money is unlimited IF you go teach yourself what Google and FB are doing before it becomes obsolete at the end of the current projects. And then go do it again as soon as you get laid off at the end of those projects. Seems like an odd way to live. But interesting that we’ve gotten to this point.

Comment by phony scandals
2017-04-23 11:04:35

RIP Erin Moran

Erin Moran

1960 - 2017

Actress played Joanie Cunningham on “Happy Days”…

Erin Moran

From Wikipedia

Moran confirmed news reports that her California home was foreclosed on in 2010,[23] following media claims that she was also served eviction papers and moved into her mother-in-law’s trailer home in Indiana.[24] In 2017, Variety magazine said she “had fallen on hard times in recent years. She was reportedly kicked out of her trailer park home in Indiana because of her hard-partying ways”.[25]

On April 22, 2017, authorities were alerted to an unresponsive female, later identified as Moran, in Corydon, Indiana. She was pronounced dead, aged 56


Comment by 2banana
2017-04-23 11:24:05

Hard partying at age 56?

That you got kicked out of trailer park?

That is some six sigma sh*t right there.

Comment by rms
2017-04-23 14:29:34

Might even be another case of “Oxycontin-n-Whisky.”

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-04-23 11:45:59

where was the Fonz when she needed help? like diana ross when Flo was fired


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