April 23, 2017

The Biggest Swing You Could Imagine

A weekend topic starting with Mother Jones. “Are we in a second housing bubble, as I suggested in a chart I posted a couple of days ago? Brad DeLong has an optimistic take: ‘There were three good reasons in the mid-2000s to believe that housing prices should jump substantially….How much were these worth? Not enough to boost housing prices to their 2005 values. But plausibly enough to boost housing prices to their values today. IMHO, the best way to view the graph is as a positive ‘displacement’ boom caused by true fundamentals, a bubble upward overshoot, a crash downward undershoot, and now (we hope) equilibrium.’”

From News Talk. “How do you spot an economic bubble? Generally, you only see it when it pops. Everyone who lived through Ireland’s Celtic Tiger boom and bust will know what it feels like when ‘good times’ turn sour. Ireland’s current rapid rise in property prices is being caused by a miss-match between supply and demand. Low stocks of houses available to buy make them more expensive - but that doesn’t necessarily mean there’s no ‘bubble’ element to recent price hikes. There is a saying in economics that when people start saying ‘this time is different’ it’s time to get worried.”

“FOMO - When bubbles start to form investors are afraid of being left behind when there’s money to be made - so they pile in. Euphoria - Valuations hit extreme levels (think Irish property prices in the year before the crash). Downfall - The shine wears off. Savvy investors realise a market is out of control and start to jump ship as values head south. Fallout - We all sit around asking ‘why didn’t we see this coming’ (and writing think pieces about how we’ll spot the next bubble forming).”

The Tampa Bay Times in Florida. “With the peak selling season in full swing, Tampa home sales didn’t disappoint in March — prices in all four bay area counties jumped again by double digits compared to the same time a year earlier. ‘We certainly have a great, healthy market right now,’ Charles Richardson, senior regional vice president of Coldwell Banker, said Friday. ‘I don’t see any adverse influences to cause it to slow down.’”

“March’s price increase marks the 61st consecutive month of year-over-year price gains. Despite some talk of another bubble, tighter lending standards have stopped the rampant speculation that sent prices soaring to unsustainable levels before the 2008 crash, bankers and Realtors say.”

The Tennessean. “Spurred by Nashville’s breakneck growth, Davidson County’s property values have soared by a record median 37 percent since 2013 under a reappraisal performed by the office of Davidson County Property Assessor Vivian Wilhoite. In Nashville’s most rapidly gentrifying neighborhoods — including large stretches of East Nashville, parts of North Nashville, The Nations in West Nashville, and Wedgewood-Houston near the city’s fairgrounds — values have skyrocketed the most.”

“It means these neighborhoods will be taking on a significantly larger tax burden than they’re accustomed. ‘The growing demand for real estate in the Nashville market drives up values,’ Wilhoite said.”

The Napa Valley Register in California. “The first quarter of 2017 saw continued improvement in the sale prices of American Canyon homes, where home values increased 45 percent over the previous five years. The average sale price of newer homes was $603,000, a 13.6 percent jump over 2016’s average sale price of $530,625. The newer homes sold for $216 per square foot. Older homes average sale price was $406,917, up 13.5 percent from the 2016 average of $357,947. Interest rates remain low, and American Canyon offers more value for home buyers compared to the rest of the Bay Area.”

The Green Bay Press Gazette in Wisconsin. “Difficult might be an understatement when it comes to finding a house in Brown County these days. Home sales data show 2017 is shaping up to be the busiest year for sales in a decade. ‘It has changed like night and day,’ Realtor Mark Olejniczak said. ‘The biggest swing you could imagine.’ Olejniczak said two or three offers on a property is no longer unusual. ‘I’ve seen five offers on one property,’ he said. ‘And it’s not just in certain areas. It’s the east side, the west side, Green Bay, Bellevue, De Pere, Lawrence, duplexes, rural homes, starter homes, condos. If a buyer has looked at a (starter home), they need to make up their mind pretty quickly and come pre-approved to buy.’”

The Des Moines Register in Iowa. “New data show central Iowa’s hot housing market has infiltrated every corner of Polk County. Home prices have surged around the metro in recent years thanks to a steady economy, an influx of young homebuyers and a historically low number of homes for sale, real estate professional say. With few houses on the market, some sellers have enjoyed bidding wars and above-list-price offers.”

“‘The story continues to be supply, historically low supply, lower supply than we have had for a long, long time,’ said Bob Burns, president of Coldwell Banker Mid-America Group. ‘It’s driving prices up.’”

From WFPL on Kentucky. “The supply of available homes in Jefferson County isn’t keeping up with demand. The sparse inventory is keeping home values here on the rise. Tony Lindauer, head of the Jefferson County Property Valuation Administration, held a news conference Friday morning at the PVA headquarters in downtown Louisville to brief reporters on the latest assessments. ‘We are one of the hottest markets in the country,’ he said. ‘That’s basically what’s driving the prices up.’”

“And John Nelson, an economics professor at the University of Louisville, said he’s more concerned about the longevity of market conditions and job creation than threats of a housing market bubble, despite rising home prices. ‘That’s the least of my concern,’ he said of a new bubble.”

The Colorado Springs Gazette. “Something is missing from front lawns across Colorado Springs: for sale signs. Actually, the signs are out there, but there are far fewer around these days. The result: Some sellers routinely field multiple offers, especially if their single-family homes are priced in the $200,000 to $400,000 range; buyers must act within hours - or even less - to make an offer or risk losing the home; and both sides are seeing prices soar because of the furious demand and supply problems.”

“‘We are experiencing something that I’ve never seen in this market before,’ said Joe Clement, broker-owner of Re/Max Properties and a 40-year real estate veteran. One of his agents recently listed two homes in the $250,000 to $350,000 price range. Within days, the first home had 34 showings and eight offers, while the second had 40 showings and six offers. ‘It’s like crazy,’ Clement said.”

“And while nobody wants higher mortgage rates, an uptick would eventually reduce the number of buyers in the market, Clement said. ‘The big cities and the medium-size cities like our size all have the same problem: inventory, inventory, inventory and demand, demand, demand,’ Clement said. ‘I’m not cheering for high interest rates or a bump-up, but it could help us in this case. It could put a little damper on the fire. It’s not out of control, but it’s getting there.’”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-23 11:59:15

‘For the fourth year in a row, Americans cited real estate as the best long-term investment, beating out stocks, gold and bonds. According to the annual Gallup poll, more than one-in-three respondents, 34 percent, said real estate was the best way to earn a return on a long-term investment.’

‘Real estate reclaimed its mantle as the favored investment tool of a plurality of Americans in 2013 after the housing market made gains following the Great Recession from 2007-09.’

Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-04-23 12:17:35

When the Fed put an artificial floor under house prices, it erased all bad memories of the bubble collapse. The sheeple are, again, lined up for the slaughter.

Comment by rms
2017-04-23 18:44:44

“…Americans cited real estate as the best long-term investment…”

Nothing but speculation based on fed.gov guarantees.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-04-24 03:53:44

It seems like the sustainability of housing as the best investment critically depends on the continuation of a massive array of government market interventions to prop up the value of housing above all other asset classes.

Comment by Tortelvis
2017-04-24 08:24:56

If its government guaranteed, is it speculation?

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-23 12:02:09

‘Americans are taking out the largest mortgages on record’

‘Bigger homes, more expensive inventory, and lower down payments all add up.’

Comment by 2banana
2017-04-23 12:05:29

Lower standards too.

And all guaranteed by the taxpayer.

Thank you obama and Mel Watts…

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-04-24 03:56:39

Is Trump planning to wind down the Obama era housing subsidies?

Comment by MightyMike
2017-04-24 07:10:45

Tax reform is supposed to be next on the agenda. Maybe he’ll propose eliminating the mortgage interest and property tax deductions.

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Comment by Professor Bear
2017-04-24 07:50:23

Well don’t forget he is the Nation’s first Real Estate Developer in Chief. Wouldn’t it seem odd for him to take policy actions that lacked the NAR and Wall Street seals of approval, no matter how destructive to the well being of Middle Class and younger Americans?

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-23 12:06:09

‘Experts say today’s adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, as well as interest-only loans, are especially suitable for borrowers who expect to move before any rate increases can wipe out the savings in the early years. They’re also useful for sophisticated borrowers wrestling with uneven income, borrowers who expect their income to rise, or borrowers who are willing to bet they can invest their mortgage savings for a greater return elsewhere.’

“Many of the mortgage products that some may have thought slipped into extinction, such as interest-only loans, do still exist today, but in far less volume” than in the heyday of the subprime era, says Bill Handel, vice president of research and product development at Raddon Financial Group, consultant to the financial-services industry.’

‘Adds David Reiss, a law professor and academic program director at the Center for Urban Business Entrepreneurship at Brooklyn Law School: “The benefits of non-30-year, fixed-rate mortgages are legion.”

“ARMs are very underutilized,” says Mat Ishbia, president of United Wholesale Mortgage, a lender in Troy, Mich. He expects the 7/1 ARM to account for 15% of new mortgages within the next few years, up from less than 5% today. Historically, ARMs become more popular as interest rates rise, making savings from the loan’s low initial “teaser rate” more attractive, he notes.’

‘The interest-only loan, which isn’t widely advertised but available to those who search for it, can offer even greater savings for borrowers willing to take bigger risks. With a typical starting rate of 3.5%, a $300,000 loan would cost just $875 a month, compared with about $1,347 on a standard “fully amortizing” loan that included principal payments. The borrower would pay $39,648 less than on the 30-year fixed loan over an initial fixed period of seven years. (Of course, avoiding principal payments means building less equity.)’

‘The catch: After seven years, the interest rate could jump substantially, pushing the payment far higher than it would have been in the 30-year fixed deal. And at some point—probably after 10 years or so—the borrower would be required to start paying principal, making the payment even bigger.’

‘The key to loan approval is the borrower’s ability to pay, and lenders are looking at a range of options beyond income from a full-time job, including irregular income from self-employment and assets such as investment accounts.’

Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-04-23 12:19:11

WOW. That’s all I have.

Comment by scdave
2017-04-23 14:19:09

interest-only loans. They’re also useful for sophisticated borrowers wrestling with uneven income, borrowers who expect their income to rise ??

This is accurate. There is one other significant benefit. You can pay down the loan with lump sum payments and your monthly payment goes down which you cannot do with a fully amortized loan.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-04-23 16:30:29

You can pay down the loan with lump sum payments and your monthly payment goes down which you cannot do with a fully amortized loan.

I don’t think this is entirely true. I discussed this with my lender and they noted that they would re-amortize (once at least, maybe twice) with significant principal reduction.

The best argument I can give for an ARM is that over long periods of time, on average, you pay more to fix your rate than accept the risk of floating the rate.

So, if you can EASILY afford your rate to go up and down a lot, an ARM makes the most sense long-term.

However, most people don’t qualify for that strategy…and with historically low rates, IMHO, are foolish to NOT fix their rate. If you need an ARM to afford to buy, then you shouldn’t buy at all.

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Comment by scdave
2017-04-23 16:36:46

I don’t think this is entirely true ??

Yes it is. I just did one.

Comment by scdave
2017-04-23 16:40:14

Sorry. I guess you are speaking to re-amortization of the loan if you make a principal pay-down. Well, that would be news to me. Most loans are sold. Getting them re-amortized is really not likely.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-04-23 16:49:49

My note allows re-amortization with the written approval of the note holder (as do I think most promissory notes–mine is a Fannie form). I got my lender to agree (in writing) to at least one re-amortization if requested.

We’ll see what kind of hell I need to go through to get them to honor that agreement.

Comment by scdave
2017-04-23 17:02:22

It would need to be a Warehoused (in house) loan I think. I suppose if it’s in the note you have that leverage. I just have never seen that verbage before in a note on a fully amortized loan.

Comment by Oxide
2017-04-24 04:31:16

How is this re-amortization and payment reduction different from a refinance? I guess the bank is simply committing to ” refinance later.”

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-04-24 08:55:50

As I’ve said before, the only thing that really matters for a loan is rate.

Paying down a loan and re-amortizing is the same as refinancing at no cost into a new loan at the same rate and same maturity as the prior loan.

At some point however, if you are willing to accelerate the paydown of your loan, it might make sense to refinance into a shorter term, as that might also lower your rate.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-04-23 19:35:57

“You can pay down the loan with lump sum payments and your monthly payment goes down which you cannot do with a fully amortized loan.”

I had a conversation with a loan officer at a Credit Union and she said they do indeed adjust the payment right away if requested because they kept the ARM loans in their portfolio.

Even if an ARM was sold or securitized, the payment would adjust at its next regularly scheduled adjustment. Most of the notes have language that specifies that the new payment is based on the outstanding balance, the adjusted interest rate, and the remaining term of the mortgage.

Read the language in the note, and pay attention to what entity owns the note.

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Comment by phony scandals
2017-04-23 16:00:31

“‘Experts say today’s adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, as well as interest-only loans, are especially suitable for borrowers who expect to move before any rate increases can wipe out the savings in the early years”

I got an adjustable-rate mortgage on my first place in 1983 and kept in until I sold in 2005.

National Average Contract Mortgage Rate: Historical Data


Comment by rms
2017-04-23 18:53:01

“…sophisticated borrowers…”

These are the borrowers who default first.

Comment by oxide
2017-04-24 06:06:34

My understanding of a “sophisticated borrower” is a rich guy who has the cash to buy what he wants but takes out a mortgage for cash flow or appreciation or tax purposes. IIRC Zuckerberg has a mortgage. If it’s basically play money and you have a financial guy keeping an eye on it, an ARM is a good tool.

But yeah, ARMs should not be used for primary residence, and maybe that “tight credit” is a good thing. Of course, we can’t have tight credit because diversity.

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Comment by rms
2017-04-23 18:49:12

Here’s a thoughtful observation of the Canadian RE Bubble. Enjoy!

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-23 12:10:30

‘It’s a common complaint about Portland’s painful housing crunch: Why are builders catering mostly to high-end buyers? New homes, on average, command higher prices than 80 percent of the homes on the market, said Skylar Olsen, an economist with the real estate website Zillow. “Construction firms … tend to go for the luxury,” she said. “That’s how they’re going to get a better bang for their buck.”

‘New homes, already sold for a premium, don’t appreciate as quickly as existing homes, and over time the rest of the market catches up. Economists call the process “filtering,” and it explains how a home can change price tiers.’

‘It usually takes about 30 years for a home to complete the filtering cycle and revert to the mean home value, said Josh Lehner, an Oregon state economist.’

‘Lehner said a main driver of slow housing construction is not a local issue, but a national one: tight credit. Lenders have only recently started increasing the flow of capital to developers, which should spark more building.’

“The key to this whole filtering process and getting affordable over time is ensuring that the supply continues to increase,” Lehner said. “If it doesn’t, you get affordability challenges where tiny little bungalows are selling for $3.2 million.”

Comment by SW
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-04-23 16:42:37

That appears to be the inflation adjusted graph from the Shiller data. The only thing that is worth noting is that Shiller uses CPI data from the US, even though the measure has changed over time…most notably after the Boskin Commission in the mid-90’s.

The Boskin Commission noted OVER statement of CPI as was measured up to that point, and they made an effort to reduce that overstatement.

There was a review of the post-Boskin commission CPI measures, and they determined that post-Boskin CPI was approximately 0.5% per year less than pre-Boskin CPI.

A couple of years ago, I reached out to Shiller to understand whether he adjusted for Boskin…he confirmed that he simply took the CPI data as reported, despite considering alternative measures of inflation.

So, comparing price movements utilizing pre-Boskin inflation measures to price movement utilizing post-Boskin inflation measures doesn’t necessarily give the best comparison.

In other words, the CPI adjustment was muted by 0.5% per annum starting in the late 90’s. If you reverse the Boskin commission “adjustments”, the trough in 2013 moves to within 10% of the prior trough, and the current peak is reduced somewhat (but still most certainly at a high point of the cycle).

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-23 17:19:11

A striking focus on one hair on the head of the biggest housing bubble in history, and the sucker’s rally that goes with it, while ignoring the forest.

Sorry for the mixed metaphor!

Comment by Tortelvis
2017-04-24 08:28:50

Can’t see the forest for the hair? Welcome to Humboldt county!

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Comment by Rental Watch
2017-04-24 09:16:57

Not ignoring the forest at all. But recognizing that the vantage point for viewing the forest has changed in judgement of it.

If the chart showed a lower trough at the right, and a lower peak at the right, it would not look as dramatic.

The review of the Boskin report’s effect on CPI was done many years ago, but the efforts were ongoing to reduce what was identified as more than 1% of overstatement in prior CPI calculations–at the time the review of the results occurred, only approximately half of this “overstatement” was offset.

So, if there have not been continued changes in the measure of CPI, the height of the hill to the right should be reduced by at least 16 points to account for the different CPI measures, and the trough should be reduced by approximately 12 points.

As I said above, we are clearly at a high point in the cycle. The question is only one of degrees.

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-04-23 19:35:27

the trough in 2013 moves to within 10% of the prior trough, and the current peak is reduced somewhat (but still most certainly at a high point of the cycle).

But note that in the past, the troughs were W-I-D-E—and this one was a blip, and right back to party-mode peaks within a few short years…

Hey, wait: this time really IS different! :-)

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-04-24 09:04:02

That is true.

I believe there are two reasons this occurred.

1) The Fed provided jet fuel to the recovery; and
2) Housing starts with prior cycles fell to only approximately 800k homes built per year, and recovered VERY quickly. In the early 90’s and in the early 80’s, after housing starts touched about 800k, they were back over 1.2MM within a couple of years. This time around, housing starts fell to almost 400k, and a few years later were still under 800k. It took 7-8 years to get back over 1.2MM.

My sense is that regardless of what the Fed did, if housing starts never fell below 800k per year, we would have seen a wider trough.

And if the Fed didn’t engage in QE, we would have seen a more traditional looking trough.

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Comment by Rental Watch
2017-04-24 09:05:55

Here is the chart from FRED.


Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-23 12:15:42

‘Robert Dietz, the National Association of Home Builders’ chief economist, in a speech to Anchorage’s real estate industry…addressed the constraints on building growth as witnessed in Anchorage that continues to face historic lows for single family permits. He called them the “three L’s.”

‘The first is a labor shortage for tradesmen…The second “L” is a very low inventory of lots which continues to plague the housing industry on a national basis as well as locally. Lot size is declining while lot value is increasing.’

‘Dietz’s third “L” is lending: the lack of “AD&C” access which stand for acquisition, development (of roads, water, sewer) and construction (vertical home building). Despite low interest rates and pent-up demand for housing, many lenders remember the trauma of the 2008 real estate recession and are hesitant to participate in AD&C lending which is considered the highest risk for timely performance.’

‘So, it is no wonder that our lots are getting smaller and more expensive as the disconnect between “new” and “pre-owned” continues to widen. Nationally, the gap between the new and existing homes since 2012 is now $72,100 compared to just $20,000 between 1990 and 2008.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-23 12:41:24

‘Nationally, the gap between the new and existing homes since 2012 is now $72,100 compared to just $20,000 between 1990 and 2008.’

= Greedy bastards.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-23 12:18:46

‘After years of very little new construction, the island is booming again with new developments. Everywhere you look there are bulldozers and concrete trucks. The new construction is a wonderful sight, considering the burden of limited housing that exists on Maui. A very large portion of the housing is also workforce or lower-priced housing. There is a wide range in pricing and new developments.’

‘Below you will find a quick guide to some of the new developments that are happening on Maui. It is always best to speak to a buyer’s agent that specializes in new construction to help you in purchasing your property. Act now, as these new construction properties do not last very long. Some are nearly sold out.’

‘Launiupoko Makila Kai brought to you by Moffett Properties and developer Brown Development. The planned workforce housing is 25 affordable homes on half-acre lots. This property is being sold based on a lottery, so if interested and you qualify, you should throw your hat in as there are no guarantees. There will be one-, two-, three- and four-bedroom single-family homes. Home prices will range from $251,800 to $671,900.’

‘Other developments of mention on other parts of the island include: Haiku Pa’uwela, a 33-home subdivision built on 33.8 acres, is 100 percent workforce housing with prices at $449,200 to $723,235.’

‘Kihei Kamalani Phase 1 and 2 feature 170 affordable two- and three-bedroom condos from the mid-$300,000s. In 2017, delivery begins; selling now.’

Comment by 2banana
2017-04-23 12:32:25

Affordable home = $671k…

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-23 14:33:06

That’s quite sad, as I doubt service workers get paid $200K/yr.

Comment by SW
2017-04-23 12:18:57

A friend told me today his mortgage broker is advertising jumbo loans with only 5% down and no PMI!

That’s nuts!

Comment by GreenEggsAndSpam
2017-04-23 16:55:38

Gotta lure the last suckers in before the whole thing implodes. I’m seeing all around my ‘hood people remodeling - some really old junky places - and places that were bought ~5 years ago at the bottom coming onto the market for 2-3x what they paid. One particularly egregious example was a pretty junky place that just wouldnt sell a mere 2-3 years ago and now they threw a new coat of paint and some new countertops and bathroom upgrades and voila - its worth 3x what they bought it for. They dont have a prayer, for that amount (1.2M) you can get something much nicer, with more land.

Comment by 2banana
2017-04-23 17:11:07

But, but….Chinese cash investors!

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-23 12:23:34

‘By the time it’s completed in 2019, the new stadium complex for the National Football League’s Los Angeles Rams will span almost 300 acres with free-standing concession stands encased in glass and a 50-foot-tall video board covering the length of the playing field.’

‘Yet the $2.6 billion project just south of L.A. in the city of Inglewood will also include another coveted amenity for any die-hard sports fan: luxury homes.’

‘In addition to a hotel, casino and 620,000 square feet of retail space, the new stadium complex will include Hollywood Park, a residential property development with up to 3,000 homes.’

‘While some of the new dwellings are aimed at middle-income residents who have been increasingly squeezed by L.A.’s soaring real estate market, most will target the luxury sector with sprawling apartments overlooking the stadium outfitted with wedge hardwood flooring, sliding glass doors and soaring beamed ceilings. The project’s developers, Wilson Meany and Stockbridge Capital Group, have yet to reveal prices.’

“We’re building a year-round community, not just a sports stadium,” says Gerard McCallum II, project manager for Wilson Meany who is overseeing Hollywood Park. “This will give fans and Los Angeles residents a great opportunity to be a part of the sports environment and connect with a real community.”

‘As more cities across the United States break ground on expensive new sports stadiums and arenas, some are including real estate components either directly on the complex grounds or nearby. From Atlanta to Minneapolis, Sacramento to Miami, developers are rushing to add condominiums and rental apartments to the long list of amenities available to ardent sports fans.’

‘Residents have begun moving into First, a 325-unit apartment building at 1263 First St. SE in the District near Nationals Park. The mixed-use project is being developed jointly by Grosvenor Americas and McCaffery Interests. Rents for the studio, one- and two-bedroom units range from $1,785 to $4,740. The new property includes a swimming pool, a hot tub and a key selling point — stadium-style seating on the roof with views into Nationals Park.’

“I can watch batting practice from my apartment. I make something to eat and go on the roof and watch the game,” said Bob Lind, 52, a software developer, who moved into First in early April. “There’s stadium seating with a big screen,” added Lind, who also goes to the games. There’s also a “panoramic view of the city — there’s the [Washington] Monument, the [National] Cathedral, the Capitol and the Anacostia River. You see everyone partying in the bullpen — it’s pretty cool.”

Comment by 2banana
2017-04-23 12:30:13

How much did the taxpayers subsidize this?

Just like taxpayers subsidizing Tesla so they can build $100,000 electric vehicles.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-23 12:39:47

‘A recent report from Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies forecasts that the remodeling industry will remain robust over the next ten years. The growth will be driven, as ever, by the Baby Boomer generation, 80 percent of whom own homes, and two-thirds of whom have expressed a desire to “age in place.” This means that many of them are modifying their living quarters to include such “universal design” features as wider doors and hallways to accommodate wheelchair use.’

‘Boomers—those born between 1946 and 1964—are a plentiful and relatively affluent lot; they’ve steered economic trends for decades. But as the oldest members of the generation amble into their 70s, housing analysts are wondering who will take up the mantle of remodeling—and home ownership—when they’re gone. Hopes are often pinned on the generation that last year overtook Boomers as the country’s largest: Millennials.’

‘It’s a dilemma that has preoccupied Arthur C. Nelson, a University of Arizona professor who spoke with former CityLab staff writer Emily Badger in 2013 about what he dubbed “the great senior sell-off.”

‘Nelson predicts that the fringe areas surrounding cities will bring the biggest headaches for Boomers looking to unload their houses. Because Millennials will be looking for small homes when they finally start to buy in larger numbers, the sprawling McMansions of the exurbs won’t be desirable to many of them. “The Boomers in the exurbs are going to be in a real pickle,” says Nelson. “Even in a dynamic market like Washington, D.C. or other booming cities, the market for those homes is going to be soft.”

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-23 14:53:19

10,000 boomers a day are hitting the nursing home or grave.

What do you so with 35 million excess empty housing units. That doesn’t include the 25 million excess empty housing units already sitting.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-23 17:35:17

My mother was a young woman in the Great Depression. She said that after this mania passes people will learn to live “like we did”. She didn’t mean it in a bad way, more like in a practical economical way. I suspect the next generation won’t have much use for a lot of what we’ve built in the bubble.

Comment by scdave
2017-04-23 17:50:32

learn to live “like we did”. She didn’t mean it in a bad way, more like in a practical economical way ??

I was raised next door to Portuguese grandparents. Frugle and repsect for food is something I learned. Most of their food came from the back yard. Still today our household throws minimal amounts of food away. Great life lesson I learned as a child. Same lesson was passed along to my children and they practice that same discipline today.

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Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-23 18:39:07

Austerity is the end result of throwing every last dime away on a massively inflated mortgage for a rapidly depreciating asset.

Comment by redmondjp
2017-04-24 10:09:43

Oh, so it’s now 35 million empty homes now, Haystacks?

Can you get on Movoto and gin it up to 50 million for us?

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-24 11:00:50

And rising by the day my good friend…… and rising by the day.


Comment by azdude
2017-04-23 13:11:13

I think we need some more debt to jump start the economy.

Comment by 2banana
2017-04-23 14:03:04

As an alcoholic just needs a wee bit more whiskey and then he/she will be able to turn their life around…

Promise this time….

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-04-24 04:00:10

Technically speaking it’s medicine, not alcohol…Right?

Comment by In Colorado
2017-04-23 14:29:43

The bubble has officially arrived in Loveland. $400K, 2000 sq ft duplexes:


Comment by 2banana
2017-04-23 15:01:52

Get on the property ladder.

They are not making any more land…

Comment by Coloradodude
2017-05-04 06:17:11

All the empty land in CO endless wheat fields east of the front range lol

Comment by scdave
2017-04-23 15:10:50

Colorado. What do you think these would rent for ??

Comment by In Colorado
2017-04-23 18:41:38

I have no idea. I still can’t believe the asking price. For a freaking duplex.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-04-24 09:46:55

I looked on Zillow, which is a fool’s errand, but being that I’m lazy it’ll have to do. Rental estimates for houses in that price range came up around $2200 per month.

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-04-23 14:55:10

Boulder, CO Housing Prices Crater 11% YoY


Comment by Neuromance
2017-04-23 15:36:24

Erin Moran had her California house foreclosed upon, and was living in a trailer in Indiana with her husband when she died: http://people.com/celebrity/erin-moran-neighbors-speak-out-following-death-trailer-mother-in-law-husband/

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-04-23 16:51:20

From that link:


‘TMZ has learned the former “Joanie Loves Chachi” actress lost her home after the bank foreclosed. Seems Erin was in arrears to the tune of $315k and didn’t fork over the cash. So, the house — located in Palmdale, CA just north of L.A. — went into foreclosure, according to documents obtained by TMZ, and was sold at public auction back in July for $291k.’

‘But the not-so-happy-days plot thickens … seems Erin kept living in the house and refused to leave. So the L.A. County Sheriff’s Dept. served her last Monday with eviction papers.’


Comment by 2banana
2017-04-23 17:09:11

So much for myth of living in your house mortgage free for five years fighting eviction while saving the payments to buy a house for cash later…

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-23 17:26:18

So much for pledging to serve in debt for multiple decades on the assumption that your life will never take a turn.

It strikes me that the press thinks being reduced to living in a trailer park is a grave tragedy. I’m thinking the overwhelming weight of depression is the real tragedy.

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Comment by phony scandals
2017-04-23 20:22:50

I would have thought kindhearted liberal Ron Howard who is worth over $140 million and played big brother Richie to Erin Moran’s Joanie Cunningham could have helped her out.

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Comment by Neuromance
2017-04-24 04:10:59

“Do as I say, not as I do.” — sanctimonious politicians and entertainment workers (actors, etc).

Comment by oxide
2017-04-24 06:30:50

The TMZ article — gossip tho it is — says that Moran “refused” to fork over the cash five years ago. So maybe she had the cash? It’s possible that Howard offered to help but was refused. Or perhaps any help he gave her could have gone up her nose or into her veins. I suppose we’ll hear all about it when the autopsy comes back.

Comment by rms
2017-04-24 06:59:44

“I would have thought kindhearted liberal Ron Howard who is worth over $140 million and played big brother Richie to Erin Moran’s Joanie Cunningham could have helped her out.”

Unfortunately the helper often becomes the enabler.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-04-24 07:02:21

“Do as I say, not as I do.”

Did Ron Howard say that other people should help out former colleagues down on their luck?

Comment by phony scandals
2017-04-24 07:31:45

“It’s possible that Howard offered to help but was refused.”


Ron Howard’s $27.5M home sale sets Westchester record

Barbara Livingston Nackman, The (Westchester County, N.Y.) Journal News Published 3:55 p.m. ET July 25, 2014

“We moved 3,000 miles away from the hub of Los Angeles, to raise our family here,” Howard said. “Whether we’re watching films in our theatre, walking the trails throughout our property, star-gazing in our observatory, or just relaxing with friends and loved ones by the lake, Cheryl and I feel we’ve accomplished the goals we set when we began work on this place. Our children are grown, so it’s time to move on, but the memories of this very special place will never leave us.”


Erin Moran Homeless: ‘Happy Days’ Star Broke And Living Like A Recluse (REPORT)

11/10/2012 01:46 pm ET

The actress is reportedly still broke despite the fact that she and her “Happy Days” castmates reached a settlement with CBS over licensing and merchandising revenue in July. The lawsuit originally asked for $10 million, but the final decision was reportedly a $65,000 payment for each of the four original stars, plus future royalties.


Comment by phony scandals
2017-04-24 08:03:56

No Opie?

“A judge recently ruled that Moran and her “Happy Days” co-stars, Anson Williams, Marion Ross and Don Most, will be permitted to go to court,”

Comment by In Colorado
2017-04-24 09:41:19

Being that he’s a zillionaire and is busy directing movies, I suspect the Ron Howard couldn’t be bothered to join the lawsuit.

Comment by phony scandals
2017-04-24 10:10:19

“Being that he’s a zillionaire and is busy directing movies, I suspect the Ron Howard couldn’t be bothered to join the lawsuit.”

Or be bothered helping a former co-star who had fallen on hard times.

That’s the point.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-04-24 11:15:06

“Or be bothered helping a former co-star who had fallen on hard times.”

That’s a whole other ball of wax. For every success in Hollywood there are a thousand failures. For all we know he did try to help her.

What is interesting is how some people in Tinseltown cope with failure. Exhibit A: Kevin Conroy.

Most people will ask: “Who’s Kevin Conroy?” He is a Julliard grad. He was in the same class as Robin Williams. After graduating, he tried his hand in Broadway, and got nowhere. His agent suggested he go to Hollywood and try out for TV shows. So he goes west, and once again, he strikes out. He did some voice overs in commercials to pay the rent, until his agent had an unexpected gig for him: To voice Batman in a cartoon show. Being that he was broke, he accepted it. He was not a comic book fan and his only exposure to Batman was the old Adam West TV show.

Fast forward to the present. Kevin Conroy made a very lucrative career out of voicing Batman in various cartoon shows, animated movies and videogames. His costar, who portrayed the Joker, was none other than Mark Hamill.

He got lucky. Had he not accepted the cartoon gig he too might have wound up in a midwest trailer park.

Comment by phony scandals
2017-04-24 12:38:21

I looked at a remodel in a crappy condo on Singer Island back in 2009 or so, didn’t get the job but did get to meet the owner Clarence Clemons. He had a big cardboard cut-out of himself in the hall, some lady wearing a funky dress was cooking something that smelled funky, the unit like the building was in disrepair and he was in a wheelchair.

Several people commented on what was a guy like that doing in a dump like that. I just attributed it to kindhearted liberal “Do as I say, not as I do.” Bruce Springsteen taking care of number one.

Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bon Jovi face big tax bills after New Jersey law change

Springsteen is one of several rockers – also including Jon Bon Jovi and the E Street Band drummer Max Weinberg – who could face big bills as a result of the changes to the law, which had granted a 98% tax exemption to those working agricultural land.

Springsteen paid around $4,600 on the 200 acres around his home, whereas the three acres of his house itself were subject to $138,000 in property taxes.


Comment by Professor Bear
2017-04-24 04:25:00

Apparently California home ownership naturally leads to substance abuse problems and eventual trailer park cohabitation with Walmart employees.

Comment by phony scandals
Comment by oxide
2017-04-24 12:48:06

For some reason I thought this was going to be the Suzanne clip, or the Stanley Johnson clip…

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Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-24 13:17:44

Hey Donk.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-04-23 18:33:36

Vienna, VA Rental Rates Crater 7% YoY On Ballooning Housing Inventory


Comment by ZH
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-04-24 04:02:41

Dan! Bueller!!!

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-24 05:45:21

Because the Chinese government is cracking down on stock market speculation. Most of the comments on this thread are lamenting the speculation in both the US stock market and housing so I would think that is a good thing. Meanwhile the Chinese economy according to the IMF:


Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-24 06:33:53

Basically, the Chinese are aggressively cracking down on speculation in the stock market and housing because its economy can hit its target without the speculation. In the US, we have speculation and fracking that is it. It was the strength of fracking that reelected Obama despite him having nothing to do with it. When he killed it by his war on Putin, he slowed the economy enough to derail Hillary. Thank you Obama. Fracking and the cheap energy it produces is just about all we have. Steel, coal and sand are just some examples of industries boosted by fracking. Thus, it is not just the oil producing states boosted by oil, it is and was the rust belt states which swung to Trump due to the slowdown caused by the oil price drop.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-24 06:41:17

The IMF is only reporting the GDP China is reporting, which we know is a lie. Repeating a lie does not add truthiness.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-24 07:21:16

No the IMF is suppose to be doing its own analysis. It may not do it well, however that is what it is saying, I posted both the CIA numbers on the Chinese economy and recently some private data both showing if anything China is underreporting growth. but if you do not like the data you are free to make up your own narrative. I just do not think a narrative without any evidence to support it, is very persuasive.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-24 07:38:50

35% of the total growth in the world. You really think if China was not growing rapidly the world would not notice? Now, I think China is backsliding on creating sustainable growth and is back to overinvesting. Probably due to political considerations. However, due to its incredible savings rate it can probably match Japan’s GDP to debt ratio in the 400%+ range before it implodes. So it changes course and accepts probably 4% growth or it implodes in about eight years, what it will do is still an open question but its implosion is not imminent:


Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-24 07:46:38

The only narrative is that China lies about their GDP. You said this yourself a couple of days ago, and again just now. If there is a window into what is happening in China it is not their GDP number, or the so-called analysis built upon it.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-24 08:00:18

not imminent…

Nobody here ever said China would cease to exist tomorrow at 2:15PM. They are basing their “growth” on credit expansion, which has accelerated the past year, and as you suggest this is a game that does not end well. Predicting a collapse event in eight years is silly.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-24 08:05:03

There are all kinds of windows into the Chinese economy, for every dollar of imports or exports there is a government on the other side of the trade confirming the trade. China’s ability to lie is far less than you are willing to acknowledge. The CIA’s estimate of China’s GDP probably is the most accurate and it rates the Chinese economy as the biggest in the world, now by a considerable margin. Thus, the reason the Chinese have the money to distort the Canadian housing market, the Australian housing market, the US coastal markets etc. The truth is there you just do not want to face it.

Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-24 08:19:25

Remember my good friend. Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.

Morrison, CO Housing Prices Crater 14% YoY


Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-24 08:30:06

So who really is FUBAR, I did not predict that China was going to collapse in eight years since there is plenty of time to reverse course, I just said that if present trends continue China will reach a truly troubling level of debt in eight years which could make an imminent collapse possible. But this shows which countries are in present danger:


Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-24 08:33:58

The CIA’s estimate of China’s…

They don’t do an estimate. They take the numbers China puts out by rote. We covered this in detail over China wages and dissected how the CIA Worldbook couldn’t even copy and paste correctly. Trade balance is not GDP. You wandered off on that one.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-24 08:52:10

You are just making claims without evidence, just like you did with gasoline. Similarly, your wage data was out of date as I remember and ignored purchase price adjustments, you were doing a straight yuan to dollar conversion but ignoring what the Chinese paid for food, housing etc. by measuring it that way. I look at China’s wages both ways but always make clear which way I am using. You tried to refute the CIA estimate of China’s wages but using a different methodology which did not adjust for PPP. It did not refute the CIA since you were comparing apples to oranges. You form a view and then look for the data to confirm your belief and ignore all the other evidence. Not uncommon but the reason you consistently underestimate the strength of the Chinese economy and are still waiting for the US housing collapse.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-24 09:01:19

Private data on China limited coverage but still interesting:


Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-24 09:29:49

Dan, you were completely wrong about the gasoline. Explaining such things to you is a next to impossible. This however has nothing to do with China’s fake GDP numbers.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-24 13:20:18

Find any expert that says I am wrong about gasoline. You have clearly shown you are not, if you think that the major reason that gasoline had been historically so profitable is because it is sold by volume not by weight. I posted several links supporting my contention you posted nothing by your uniformed opinion.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-04-24 13:47:46

Another article supporting everything I have been saying and refuting your contention, refiners in this country have historically wanted to produce more gasoline to maximize their returns, thus the strong preference for the lighter grades of oil, only recently has diesel been more desired and that is only because until recently Chinese diesel demand had been going through the roof with very little increase in gasoline demand:


Comment by Blue Skye
2017-04-24 17:45:10

I’d rather leave you with your misconceptions and your personality thingy. Please do invest according to them.

Comment by Get Stucco
2017-04-24 03:49:35

“IMHO, the best way to view the graph is as a positive ‘displacement’ boom caused by true fundamentals, a bubble upward overshoot, a crash downward undershoot, and now (we hope) equilibrium.’”

You can wish in one hand and shit in the other, and see which one fills up the fastest.

Comment by azdude
2017-04-24 04:29:10

BTFD is still working. shorts getting creamed again.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by phony scandals
2017-04-24 06:59:34

I have a feeling the Associated Press is leaving a few cash-out refis out of this victims tale of woe.

Comment by taxpayer
2017-04-24 06:08:12

IOWA is hot w corn at $3.60 a bushel ?

Comment by phony scandals
Comment by Race Bannon
2017-04-24 08:31:17

Sunday, Monday, Crater Days,
Tuesday, Wednesday, Crater Days,
Thursday, Friday, Craters Days
Saturday, You slave away
A seven day week for you

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-04-24 09:02:30

Recorded yesterday, this is really good:


David Horowitz DGAF, and he pulls no punches telling you about it.

Comment by phony scandals
2017-05-03 08:03:23

In the advanced stages of the disease, the afflicted lose touch with reality.

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