May 15, 2017

They’re Not Betting As Much As They Were

A report from Q 13 Fox in Washington. “When you think the housing market couldn’t get any hotter, it does and continues to set records. Chinese investors make up the majority of foreign buyers in our area. They have always been interested in the Puget Sound area but several local realtors are telling Q13 News they are buying up residential properties at a rate they never seen before. Among the competition are Chinese investors who many times overbid and pay in cash. Broker Gary Lu with John L. Scott specializes in the cash-bidding world. ‘I am their personal shopper,’ Lu said. In fact, Lu says some Chinese investors have never even set foot in the Emerald City. ‘Not just one client, many of my clients they have never even been to Seattle,’ Lu said.”

From Hawaii News now. “A developer whose permit has stalled in Honolulu City Council is threatening to organize a boycott of Hawaii if he doesn’t get his way. In a rambling letter to Councilman Ikaika Anderson, Johnson Fang, developer of the proposed 26-story Hawaii City Plaza high-rise on Sheridan Street, accused the Windward lawmaker of being biased. ‘We deem your racial remarks (have) violated federal law…and discriminated against Chinese-Americans,’ Fang said in the letter. ‘l will call on Chinese to not visit Hawaii… not to make investment or buy property in Hawaii.’”

“Fang is referring to comments by Anderson last week where he said, ‘If you’re looking to provide 25 rental units and then you’re going to take 130 units to market in China, sir, I’m not interested in that quite frankly.’ Anderson declined comment on Fang’s allegations on the advice of city attorneys. But he said he opposes the condo project — where units go for as much as $1.5 million — because it would do little to ease the housing crisis.”

From the Macomb Daily in Michigan. “The county’s top assessor worries about a repeat of a decade ago when rapidly rising housing prices created a real estate bubble that led to a crash and economic recession. But Macomb County Equalization Director Kristen Sieloff hopes, and other experts have assured, a crisis is less likely this time because of safeguards in place now that didn’t exist in 2008. She worries when she notices two gaps — one ‘bubble’ between taxable value and assessed value, and a second bubble between the inflation rate and rate of the housing price increase.”

“‘I am a little concerned about the bubble between taxable value and assessed value,’ she told county commissioners. ‘That’s kind of what happened in 2006 and 2007. It became a snowball effect.’”

“Sieloff prefers housing prices to rise two to three times the inflation rate, not the current situation of five to 10 times. The CPI last year was .3 percent and this year is .9 percent, she said. ‘To me as an assessor it makes me a little nervous because of what happened last time. I like to see a 2 to 3 percent increase, a little above the CPI (Consumer Price Index),’ Sieloff said. ‘When I see a big, wide gap like that, I hope we have enough safety measures in place. Hopefully people aren’t buying properties they can’t afford.’”

The Des Moines Register in Iowa. “Des Moines’ housing market has enjoyed several years of uninterrupted growth. And that’s starting to make some real estate professionals anxious. Many in the industry say the housing market — which has seen record home prices and a feeding frenzy for entry-level homes in recent years — is poised to continue growing thanks to the city’s solid economy and booming population. But some are beginning to wonder how much longer the ride can last.”

“Internal data from Keller Williams, which has nearly 160,000 agents nationwide, shows coastal markets started slowing down around September 2016, said Erin Rundall, a Keller Williams agent. During the last housing crash, the Des Moines market slowed down about 18 months after coastal markets. Some agents are already starting to cut expenses like advertising and overhead in anticipation of a market slowdown, said Brian Wentz, CEO of Keller Williams Realty Greater Des Moines. Others are going back and reviewing practices that helped them stay afloat following the 2007 housing collapse.”

“‘There is no question that in our industry we have the sense we are in the eighth inning,’ said Wentz. ‘At some point the market will become overheated and pull back.’”

The San Mateo Daily Journal in California. “Redwood City officials will broaden their perspectives on the city’s future to its role in the region and position in the face of an uncertain national economic climate following a sobering report on the city’s economic indicators presented to the City Council. Economist Jon Haveman predicted the city may experience the slowing employment growth already documented in the state and region, which could have a delayed effect on sales and property taxes, the city’s two largest sources of revenue in the city’s 2015-16 fiscal year. Though Haveman noted the city’s home prices are high by regional standards, he said a decline in the last year may bring relief to Redwood City residents.”

“Councilwoman Alicia Aguirre said she was encouraged by Haveman’s analysis of the city’s housing stock, which showed permits for the construction of new residential buildings had grown faster between 2014 and 2015 than nearby areas, while permits dropped in San Mateo County and the Bay Area as a whole during that time. ‘I’m happy to see that housing is adequate for the growth that is expected of us,’ she said. ‘Because rents are coming down, I’m hoping we’ll be able to keep more people here.’”

“But she said Haveman’s less rosy perspective on indicators such as the city’s employment growth rate, which he said would follow the Bay Area’s suit in falling to 3 percent from 4 percent, puts the city’s budget decisions in the context of regional, state and national policies. As a board member of the San Mateo County Transit District and Caltrain, Councilman Jeff Gee said he has seen similarly sobering sales tax revenue numbers as those agencies are working slowing tax revenue growth into their budgets. ‘They’re seeing the slowdown in the economy and they’re not betting as much as they were betting two years ago,’ he said.”

The Palm Beach Post in Florida. “The storied history of the north end waterfront project that once bore the name ‘Trump’ awaits its next chapter. In its most recent iteration, as a six-building, 1,000-condo and apartment complex, Marina Village was supposed to have come out of the ground late last year. But more than five months into this year, there’s no sign of activity and neither development partner will talk about it.”

“‘I drove by it this weekend,’ said Jonathan Gladstone, a developer who bought commercial property just to the north in Riviera Beach, thinking that the big Marina Village project would catalyze the market there. ‘I’m always looking for movement and nothing’s happened on the site.’”

“Others in the real estate industry point to a number of market factors affecting the development climate, from shallowness of demand, to rents too soft to support construction. Developer Jeff Greene, who has several West Palm Beach projects in the works, said that in recent months, an oversupply of projects in the pipeline has led to some being cancelled, and as a result, construction prices leveled off. Greene, who is bidding out work on his upcoming One West Palm, a $250 million, two-tower office/hotel/apartment project, said he has been told that contractor and subcontractor prices are dropping. ‘Basically I’m told it’s time to save money on your subs,’ he said.”

“On the other hand, apartment demand in West Palm Beach is steady but not bursting, he said. ‘This is a tough market,’ Greene said. His downtown buildings, for example, have vacancies, ‘not a lot but some,’ he said, but enough to make you think, ‘what happens when you have 800 more units being built? It hasn’t proven to be the dynamic real estate market where you have the support for the real estate development. People are nervous to go in here. I’m nervous, too.’”




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117 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-15 08:16:16

Some back ground on the Hawaii story:

‘The City Council’s Zoning Committee will likely place a hold on plans to build a 26-story condo transit-oriented development project on Sheridan Street. Councilman Ikaika Anderson said the Hawaii City Plaza project provides little relief for an overheated housing market since up to 60 percent of the units are being marketed in China.’

“Where is the benefit to the Hawaii working family? Where is the benefit to the Hawaii resident who is looking for housing? I don’t see it with this property,” Anderson said.’

‘Developer Jay Fang applied for the TOD designation, which would allow him to build 164 condos on the property. Normal zoning would allow 115 units. Even though it’s a TOD project, Fang conceded that most of his buyers won’t even ride the rail, saying mass transit is for “old people, unemployed people or someone who can’t afford the expense of a private car.” Prices range from $500,000 to $1.5 million.’

Comment by Obongo
2017-05-15 12:52:18

Jay sounds like a charmer

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-15 14:04:55

And his last name is the other bubble, you just cannot make this stuff up.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-15 08:17:59

‘Condo flippers in Miami have created an unprecedented excess of uncompleted buildings’

‘Because there have been zero resales, “the actual market value of the units in the project is uncertain.”

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-16 07:05:02

What would cause units in a project to have zero resales? Did they perhaps set the price above market value?

 
 
Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-05-15 08:21:01

Q13 Fox is pimping the real estate bubble daily. Never a story about the glut, of course…

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-15 09:11:57

‘Among the competition are Chinese investors who many times overbid and pay in cash’

Oh, can I over-over bid? And what about the myriad of reports for months now about Chinese cash getting scarce?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-15 11:00:07

Chinese reserves are showing it, I guess the people that thought China was imminently going to run out of reserves are eating Peking Crow. How does it taste Blue?

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/finance/Chinas-net-forex-sales-slow-in-April/shdaily.shtml

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-15 12:07:34

Arguing with his own imagination?

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-15 12:04:45

I had dinner last week with someone from Europe who sells a lot of equipment to Chinese firms, particularly steel mills. He said it is getting increasingly difficult to get paid once the equipment is delivered.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-15 12:55:00

World-wide over supply of steel, why would it not be difficult no matter which country the steel plant was located?

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-05-15 13:54:18

You mean they don’t do letters of credit? That’s awfully trusting of them.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-15 14:27:59

I have always done letters of credit with China and Taiwan. Costs a bit to set up but it is worth it. He was complaining about Mickey Mouse excuses to delay final acceptance.

 
 
Comment by rms
2017-05-15 23:35:07

He said it is getting increasingly difficult to get paid once the equipment is delivered.

Oh yeah, the accounts receivable; been there, done that.

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Comment by cactus
2017-05-15 12:57:23

Among the competition are Chinese investors who many times overbid and pay in cash”

lets hope they over bid and its not a new normal, a massive hidden inflation on American standard of living due to globalization effects.

Where I sit right now its Chinese all the way down …. my boss is having me send all my designs to him so he can pass them on to his pals in China. and my bosses boss is Chinese as is his boss, like I said all the way down..

And they say you have to have at least 5 rentals at mid career because their boss does and his boss does, etc.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-16 07:07:40

“…lets hope they over bid and its not a new normal, a massive hidden inflation on American standard of living due to globalization effects.”

This is the result of globalization? Here I thought it was the Fed’s plan to steadily and stealthily write down the value of the dollar through deliberate asset price inflation.

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Comment by redmondjp
2017-05-15 16:25:56

Despite what you might think Ben, this article is spot on for the greater Seattle area. I keep in touch with my realtor on a regular basis, and she just sent me a recently-closed listing for a 3BR house in Kirkland, built in 1966, that was listed for $900K and sold for $1.35M.

This spring, it’s normal for houses in my area to now sell for six figures over asking.

Comment by Karen
2017-05-15 17:35:10

Links?

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-15 19:07:45

It doesn’t matter what I think. Is this a bubble?

’sell for six figures over asking’

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-15 08:24:39

‘Though Haveman noted the city’s home prices are high by regional standards, he said a decline in the last year may bring relief to Redwood City residents’

“At a Silicon Valley of Realtors meeting this month, Carole Rodoni, president of Bamboo Consulting, said realtors need to educate buyers that this market is not a negotiation market; rather, it is a competitive market. ‘Buyers have to be quick, fast and ready to perform, or the house will be gone. Price is not price; it’s just a number,’ said Rodoni. She said to realtors, ‘Tell your buyers ‘If you can’t go higher, then you need to go somewhere else. If you want to live here, the key is to get in and pay the price because that’s the way it is.’”

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10083

Comment by Oscar Goldman
2017-05-15 09:04:23

Magical (non)thinking and Donkey Math. :mrgeen:

 
 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-05-15 08:31:07

But Macomb
>County Equalization Director ///
Kristen Sieloff hopes,

WTF is that- RIF em

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-15 08:31:50

‘the housing market…has seen record home prices and a feeding frenzy for entry-level homes in recent years’

In Iowa.

Comment by taxpayer
2017-05-15 10:55:59

corn $3.60
IA,NE,KS>MO

what else do they have?

Comment by butters
2017-05-15 16:09:06

Decent FIRE economy.

 
 
Comment by Puggs
2017-05-15 14:30:32

They want to be like Denver. Except no mountains.

 
Comment by MWR
2017-05-15 18:22:18

Makes sense; They are running out of land in Iowa and Nebraska.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-15 08:38:25

Interesting disconnect between the evidence and sentiment of homeowners, does suggest a top, how much of a correction is really the open question:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/housing/march_2017/41_of_homeowners_see_home_value_rising

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-15 08:49:30

‘Of the index’s three components, sales expectations over the next six months saw the biggest gain, rising four points to 79. That is the highest level since June 2005. Current sales conditions also rose two points to 76. The components measuring buyer traffic, however, fell one point to 51.’

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-05-15 08:57:16

Kalaheo, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY

https://www.zillow.com/kalaheo-hi/home-values/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-15 09:09:40

‘Greene, who is bidding out work…said he has been told that contractor and subcontractor prices are dropping. ‘Basically I’m told it’s time to save money on your subs,’ he said’

This is how a recession begins. They have less money to spend, and so on. Interesting the lack of MSM coverage on Miami Beach, Naples and now Palm Beach. And it’s only local web based media digging into the carnage in NYC.

 
Comment by sharia blue even if it kills you
2017-05-15 09:33:33

Ran into a friend yesterday who is a retired govt worker, was a RE agent on the side (becuz govt work is all too often not really work) and he still does it. He mentioned a condo coming onto the market and I told him its another bubble, driven by China, condos being built everywhere with tiny occupancy rates, etc. Fully red-pilled him, lol - he knew affordability is whack (2 kids in Portlandia) and barely got out of bubble 1.0 himself with the skin of his teeth. We also talked about the main mall, complete disaster with half of it empty and the bigger picture of dying retail - not a good sign for the economy.

Just doing my part dropping truth bombs. Get out there and plant some seeds, we can kill this b!tch off once and for all!

Comment by taxpayer
2017-05-15 10:54:33

I’m more interested in killing off bureaucrats (exp Oxide)

Comment by MightyMike
2017-05-15 12:29:41

Usually people want to kill those with real power, as happened in the French and Russian revolutions. The hated of bureaucrats must be another product of corporate propaganda.

Comment by Karen
2017-05-15 17:38:52

The bureaucrats are the ones with the power. Politicians come and go, but the civil service, and administrative law, remains.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-16 05:12:44

The bureaucrats just do the bidding of the real people in power not the puppets but the PTB who put into power the puppets with their money. These people, who are globalists, are in near panic mode right now because they cannot make Trump act like McCain or Romney. McCain was reelected one time with an ad which stated just build the damn wall. Romney had similar talk tough but he did not mean it. The fact that Sessions and Trump are immigration enforcing laws on the books and Trump still has not retreated from insisting on fair trade deals has infuriated them and they are using their controlled press to try to destroy him. The bureaucrats are attempting to help with this. I think that the last straw for the PTB was that Trump was truly mad at a budget that did not have money for the wall. His actions on NAFTA and his refusal to go to war to remove Assad also contributed to their anger.

While anti-globalists would like Trump to roll back globalism more aggressively, the PTB cannot survive the status quo. The immigration laws if enforced and they are being enforced, can roll back a lot of the past non-enforcement. It is a carbon tax that is needed to pay for the creation of world government and that sure does not look likely with Trump in office. The disconnect between rising Co2 and flat global temperatures grows more apparent every day. We were suppose to be all dead if it went passed 400 ppm. I doing fine how but you? Yes we have had warming somewhat consistent with an interglacial period. Although we actually are 2 degrees Celsius below a normal warming so that actually supports those who say humans are not the major cause for the warming, thus a co2 tax to transfer money to poor nations makes no sense. Putin exposed much dishonesty in our system with the help of WikiLeaks and a DNC staffer. What happens when it becomes apparent that the PTB used natural warming to push their agenda by creating an alleged global problem that required global government to fix?

All globalism has accomplished for US citizens is a hollowed out industrial sector and the rise of a new superpower that someday may go to war with us. Yes, I am talking about China. I see the real threat and I think that it is the globalists who attempt to minimize the threat because it was their only foolish actions that created the threat. China does have a GDP greater than us and that gives it the ability to threaten us, the figures that I really do not believe out of China are the figures on defense spending not the economic numbers which if anything understate their strength. Sun Tsu would be proud.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-05-16 07:03:38

The bureaucrats just do the bidding of the real people in power not the puppets but the PTB who put into power the puppets with their money. These people, who are globalists, are in near panic mode right now because they cannot make Trump act like McCain or Romney.

You’re correct that power is money in America. That’s because the 99% have been convinced to tune out of active political participation. However, it’s highly unlikely that big business of the 1% has much to worry about from Trump. He wants to give them a big tax cut.

All globalism has accomplished for US citizens is a hollowed out industrial sector and the rise of a new superpower that someday may go to war with us.

That’s quite an exaggeration there. Many US citizens are in love with their iPhones and other consumer products made in China. That’s just one example. There’s also a lot of clothing made in desperately poor places like Bangladesh.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-16 07:14:04

“The bureaucrats are the ones with the power.”

Rickerous.

 
 
 
 
Comment by new attitude
2017-05-15 14:42:45

becuz govt work is all too often not really work

+1

 
 
Comment by Oscar Goldman
2017-05-15 09:36:03

More powerful stimulus for the global economy.

“House Prices Fall Again As Investment Loans Drop To Lowest Level In 10 Months”

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/home-loan-approvals-fell-05-in-march-20170515-gw4yfg.html

Comment by Puggs
2017-05-15 14:23:47

I’d buy moar stuff if the prices went down. Like by 50%!

 
 
Comment by Karen
2017-05-15 09:46:59

Macomb County Equalization Director Kristen Sieloff…prefers housing prices to rise two to three times the inflation rate, not the current situation of five to 10 times.

Sure, no problem.

 
Comment by Oscar Goldman
2017-05-15 10:14:51

Remember….. A ‘recovery’ is falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels by definition.

“Natural Gas Prices Fall”

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4070767-natural-gas-prices-fall-fundamentals-loosen-traders-focus-record-net-long-positioning

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-15 10:28:53

Natural gas prices are about double from where they were last year if there is anymore of a “recovery” we will not be able to heat our houses or apartments in the Winter.

Comment by Oscar Goldman
2017-05-15 10:43:06

Just a minor step on the way down. NatGas is down 75% since 2008 and down 40% since 2014.

This is all very good news my friend. Very good news.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-15 12:57:11
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Comment by new attitude
2017-05-15 11:13:12

go solar my friend, no more gas needed. be self-sufficient.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-15 13:33:04

I like to have heat at night and the government subsidies are not high enough to buy batteries that have a limited life span. Some day solar will be truly competitive with fossil fuels but we are not there yet. That is why countries continue to build coal plants when they are not being paid to build solar.

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-05-15 13:51:27

A guy at work claims that he sells his surplus daytime solar power to the utility company and after dark buys it back for a net bill close to zero. I have no idea if he’s telling the truth.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-05-15 14:12:19

Some utilities do that. In effect, the utility’s entire generation, transmission and distribution system would act as a giant battery for that guy, and he would pay nothing for using it. That means that he’s subsidized by the utility’s customers who don’t have solar panels.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-05-15 14:41:31

MMike, Nevada just made a major change (within the past year or so) in how the rates work for FUTURE solar power buyers. Previously, residential owners with rooftop solar were paid retail rates for their excess power, now they will be paid wholesale prices for their excess power, so the subsidy you mention has nearly gone away.

So, they sell power at $x per kWh, and they have to buy it back at a higher price.

I say “nearly” because there is a cost to stopping and starting power plants in lost momentum, so I’m guessing the cost of bringing those solar customers back onto the grid every day once their private solar plants stop producing is more expensive than the cost of keeping someone on the power grid full time.

But still…it’s more fair than the way it was set up previously.

For anyone who pays attention to things like the true cost of solar power…according to SolarCity, it is no longer economic to sell rooftop solar in Nevada.

Of course, SolarCity is arguing that there are other benefits that support perhaps a higher reimbursement to their solar customers…we’ll see if they are persuasive enough.

 
 
Comment by Oscar Goldman
2017-05-15 18:39:10

Now lets wrap her up with falling prices.

Charlton, MA Housing Prices Crater 7%YOY

https://www.zillow.com/charlton-ma/home-values/

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-05-15 10:51:39

Miami Dade County, FL Rental Rates Crater 6% YOY

https://www.zillow.com/miami-dade-county-fl/home-values/

Comment by taxpayer
2017-05-15 10:58:39

I like the .4% prediction
that covers mulch and paint

Comment by Oscar Goldman
2017-05-15 11:07:06

I like the cratering :mrgreen: prices.

Miami Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY

https://www.zillow.com/miami-beach-fl-33140/home-values/

 
 
 
Comment by new attitude
2017-05-15 10:57:43

Tiny house: for $62k you get a badly designed super heavy camper with nowhere to park it!

https://slo.craigslist.org/for/6119949386.html

Comment by megamike
2017-05-15 18:44:09

When will the tiny house craze (if there ever was a craze) finally crater? In addition will young people support the huge RV industry that is dominated by boomers? Once the boomers die off will the next generation want to buy/own those behemoth rolling homes? If they dont a HUGE sector of FL that supports that industry will be toast!

 
Comment by phony scandals
2017-05-15 19:34:09

Is it a flip?

Flippin’ RVs Episodes

Season 2, Episode 4

Flyte Camp’s Original Neutron Trailer gets a New Design
Justin and Anna restore a 1947 Higgins for a client interested in an entry level tent-style trailer. Though the project seems simple, there is plenty of other work in the shop to keep the …

http://www.greatamericancountry.com/shows/flippin-rvs/episodes

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-15 11:50:43

I might need another cup of coffee, I agree with you on this.

 
Comment by Foo
2017-05-15 11:51:39

From Silicon Valley.

Another month with no crash in sight. Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google etc continue going up, startups keep getting acquired for huge money creating millionaires without fail.

Real estate is unshakeable right now.
I do not see any imminent real triggers for crash.

A real trigger would be raising interest rates significantly.
Money is too cheap for anyone right now, whether to buy house or to flip or invest or fund these (mostly crappy) startups.

Comment by Oscar Goldman
2017-05-15 12:31:53

What would you prefer to call collapsing demand?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-15 13:13:31

The state revenue picture certainly is getting darker:

http://www.sco.ca.gov/Files-EO/05-17summary.pdf

Comment by new attitude
2017-05-15 14:41:12

I wish it would all crash, so far just the opposite in the good areas.

 
Comment by Bellinghouse
2017-05-15 15:02:23

Did I read that correctly that some of the taxes are coming in 14% below forecast? Yikes, that is really troubling if it is not related to a timing issue.

 
 
Comment by Justme
2017-05-15 23:49:54

Hmm, multiple bubble-boosters from SIlicon Valley posting in the last several days. I think that is a sure sign that the bubble is bursting. Look at inventories compared to last year.

Comment by MarkinSF
2017-05-16 06:13:07

One thing’s for sure around the SF Bay area; I haven’t seen a for sale sign last more than 3 weeks. Everything is pending within 2. BART & other public transportation is completely packed every working day and rush hour traffic jams are showing up where it used to be a hassle free commute. And “everything” goes over asking.

 
 
 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-05-15 12:11:54

seems she kept her cushy gov gig
ut Macomb County Equalization Director Kristen Sieloff hopes, and other experts have assured,

where’s TRUMPf ?
start chopping

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-16 07:16:36

If she works for the county, what does Trump have to do with her position?

 
 
Comment by new attitude
2017-05-15 12:45:26

Durn stawks!!

I am missing the game!

 
Comment by clark
2017-05-15 13:26:56

‘Yes, this definitely is what you should do, you should first recognize the insanity and then you should choose to join it.’ - thanks for that, Mr. Banker.

In the Quadcities, on the Iowa side, on Craigslist there’s an $83,000 mobile home for sale, on its own small lot, next to a golf course which is considered upscale. The m.h. has a detached garage.

Quite a few luxury condo and apartment complexes are being built [not a few are smack dab next to a busy railroad line and other places I would never want to live near] and there are many advertisements for move-in incentives just like in the big cities.

I have seen cheap houses for sale in no-jobs-towns between here and DesMoines, any houses close to being ‘cheap’ anywhere near a job-town gets sold fast.

As I recall, there are more hogs in Iowa than there are people, but you wouldn’t know that if you’re in a bigger city, you might just think there are more bridges than people, though.

On the Illinois side, there are tons of houses for sale, but who wants to live over there? Many people on the Iowa side do not like the increasing and numerous bad driving skills of those with Illinois plates who come here to work or to buy lower taxed stuff.

I was just wondering today, how long after a crash is a good time to buy. Per Ben’s blog post, I have to add 18 months onto any guess. Cal it two years, then? Yeesh.

The cars for sale on Craigslist, I’ve never seen so many ‘muscle cars’ and hot rods for sale, most are $20,000 to $50,000. Seems like a lot of people are implementing Plan B all at the same time.

Oh, and Iowa has lots of imported road salt. They’ve perfected the application to an art, I think.

Comment by butters
2017-05-15 15:43:21

Everyone wants to live in Iowa.

 
Comment by Taxpayers
2017-05-15 16:50:35

Peeps on the IL side are escaping taxes

 
Comment by MarkinSF
2017-05-16 06:09:14

4 years

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-15 14:16:17

those Chinese millennials sure know how to shop, perhaps they will not save as much to buy foreign real estate:

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-05/15/content_29349530.htm

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-15 18:04:46

It’s a goal, right, the consumer economy.

The Yuan is in parabolic decline since 2014 and China is running out of dollars. Trying to strangle outflows of cash. Take a look at what their smuggle vector, Bitcoin is doing. The rats know something.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-05-15 15:29:54

Denver, CO Housing Demand Craters 18% YOY As Prices Fall

http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/City/City_Turnover_AllHomes.csv

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-15 17:59:34

Our financial media border collies assure us that this time it really IS different.

We’ll see about that….

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/15/dotcom-bubble-time-really-different/

 
Comment by megamike
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-16 07:17:53

The collapse of the global property bubble must be one of the most frequent stopped-clock predictions in history.

 
 
Comment by resistance
2017-05-15 19:21:02

Prediction: The Seattle metro area, being one of the least effected metro areas during the last real estate bubble deflation, will be one of the hardest hit areas in the US when this bubble pops.

Comment by rms
2017-05-15 23:49:01

Like a building’s column that is too tall between supports… crash.

 
 
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-15 20:09:59

The Keynesian fraudsters at the central banks deny QE-to-Infinity is inflationary.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/13/inflation-rise-three-year-high-amid-jump-airfares-energy-bills/

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-16 00:57:01

Not selling as many cars, either…

Ford to Cut Global Workforce Roughly 10%
Published May 16, 2017 Industries Dow Jones Newswires

Comment by Mr. Banker
Comment by MightyMike
2017-05-16 07:07:58

The headline is so dopey, it’s sensible not to read the article.

 
 
 
Comment by SLynsns
2017-05-16 01:03:02

@ Albuquerquedan

The reasons countries continue to work with coal are varied and often political - they are often good paying jobs to uneducated/unskilled workers whereas solar panel production may require fewer workers of higher skill (just guessing on that). Love of coal is cultural and political.

The problem you point out is that coal SEEMS cheaper to YOU but that is only because all the external costs are not clearly accounted for - asthma/cancer and medical costs of burning fossil fuels, worker deaths, acid rain destroying forests/biodiversity (causes knock-on problems) and other costs of pollution that are paid for by the populace out of pocket (higher insurance costs for example) and through taxes in general rather than by the energy companies to clean up the pollution or the consumers at the power meter. I’d rather hear the argument that we can’t afford to keep using coal. It’s expensive.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-16 05:23:04

The best part is that if you make a bunch of solar cells you get to use even more coal than if you didn’t.

 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-16 04:57:34

Despite all of the saber rattling about tightening policy, can the Fed afford to do so?

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-16 05:00:30

“‘I am a little concerned about the bubble between taxable value and assessed value,’ she told county commissioners. ‘That’s kind of what happened in 2006 and 2007. It became a snowball effect.’”

“Sieloff prefers housing prices to rise two to three times the inflation rate, not the current situation of five to 10 times.”

It’s different this time, thanks to the massive influx of foreign investors in residential real estate.

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-05-16 05:28:53

Boulder has a homeless problem:

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/boulder-to-consider-long-term-homelessness-solutions

Buy a $800,000 starter home in Boulder, put some Tibetan prayer flags on your front porch, slap a COEXIST sticker on your Volvo, and just ignore that homeless schizophrenic urinating in the bushes, LOLZ.

Comment by phony scandals
2017-05-16 07:53:30

How long would a Volvo owner with a COEXIST bumper sticker allow a couple of homeless people (like the 2 pictured) park their homeless rig in their backyard and urinate in their bushes?

 
Comment by rms
2017-05-16 12:31:24

Easy… move the soup kitchens to the low-income area of the county.

 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
 
Comment by Apartment 401
 
Comment by Apartment 401
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-16 07:19:26

That’s old news…one hour old.

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-05-16 05:39:57

Joke of an article says selfish hoarders should be less selfish and spend money on sh*t they don’t want or need:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-16/rich-retirees-are-hoarding-cash-out-of-fear

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-05-16 06:13:18

Duh, if you are young you can work to make money, if you are old then you can’t.

You have to hoard cash when you are old because once your cash is gone there is no way to make it back.

This should be a no-brainer but for some reason it isn’t.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-16 07:20:39

When you are young, you can fantasize about working to make up the money you lost. When you are old, it becomes much harder to turn fantasy into reality.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-16 07:38:30

Having a big pile of cash is not the only approach to old. Ending accumulation and consumerism is a powerful counter balance.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by rms
2017-05-16 12:35:11

“Ending accumulation and consumerism is a powerful counter balance.”

What does Mrs. Gandhi think about that?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-05-16 05:44:04

Joke website MarketWatch links to this joke of an article:

https://moneyish.com/splurge/brides-to-be-are-spending-up-to-15000-on-custom-diets-and-bridal-bootcamps/

Men under 35 are done getting married, they’re learning there’s no benefit to it.

Why bother when finding a hookup on Tinder is easier than ordering a pizza?

Comment by rms
2017-05-16 06:46:22

Does Tinder have a body mass index variable in their bio area?

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-05-16 05:49:22

Don’t be a beta bux. Just don’t:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/your-failing-marriage-is-about-to-make-the-retirement-crisis-worse-2017-03-13

Cats, boxed wine, and anti-depressant drugs are what you have to look forward to. Your life is not an episode of Sex In The City :(

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-16 06:09:00

Millennials are too addicted to overpriced coffee and avocados to ever buy their own houses.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/16/millionaire-millennials-avocado-property-coffee.html

Comment by Interested Observer
2017-05-16 08:14:23

Say the real estate mogels who are desperate for more people to keep the party going.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-16 06:10:19

Our corporate media border collies assure us there is no bubble, because its different this time. Buy moar stawks!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ridiculous-reason-tech-stocks-arent-in-a-bubble-2017-05-16-9103010

 
Comment by rms
2017-05-16 06:56:57

Just sat through an all employee meeting, “We have to do more with less.” WTF? Where have you been the last eight years? I saw several of a our best performers roll their eyes; edit that resume?

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-16 07:21:43

That line gets old in a hurry…especially after you have heard it for nearly a decade running.

Comment by rms
2017-05-16 12:41:11

We’ve had plenty of turn-over too… doesn’t take ‘em long to see that the ship is taking-on water.

 
 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-05-16 07:10:07

One-bedroom, one-bathroom condo in D.C.’s Woodley Park lists for $395,000

By Michele Lerner May 15

If you’re limiting your search for a place to buy to an upper limit of $400,000 and want to stay in the District, where the median sales price recently topped $535,000, according to Rockville-based multiple-listing service Bright MLS, then you’ll need to make compromises. If location means more than space and is a bigger priority than living in a newer property, one option is a condo in an older building.

For example, the one-bedroom, one-bathroom condo in the Cathedral Park building at 3100 Connecticut Ave. NW, Unit 118, is priced at $395,000. Condominium association fees are $487 per month and include gas and water. Annual taxes are $3,281.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/where-we-live/wp/2017/05/15/one-bedroom-one-bathroom-condo-in-d-c-s-woodley-park-lists-for-395000/?utm_term=.bb59b2359c6e

 
Comment by Financial Moralizer
Comment by rms
2017-05-16 12:45:36

What’s not to like about Melania?

I’m tired of these activist 1st ladies.

 
 
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