Well In Excess Of The Desired Equilibrium
A report from CNBC. “The largest generation is finally starting to buy houses. The trouble is, there aren’t enough houses for sale to feed their appetite, at least not enough they can afford. Enter the nation’s recovering homebuilders. They may want to play to this great big audience, but doing that will hurt their bottom lines. First-time buyers, however, are not necessarily starter homebuyers. Millennials waited longer to get married, have children and buy homes, due to the recession and other social factors. Since they are older, they can afford more, even though it may be their first home.”
“‘There are a lot of first-time buyers in their early 30’s in good locations, buying,’ said John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. ‘It’s somebody’s first house, but they both went to college, and they’re making $200,000 each.’”
From My San Antonio in Texas. “The local housing market is finally showing signs of cooling after growing at a rapid clip over the last five years. ‘The market is probably slowing down a little bit,’ said Jim Gaines, chief economist at the Texas A&M Real Estate Center. ‘Last year was phenomenally good. You’re still seeing a good market, just not phenomenally good.’”
From The Advertiser in Louisiana. “Acadiana’s housing market is making some measured recovery in 2017. Report compiler Bill Bacque, president of Van Eaton & Romero, said market slowdown exacerbated by the oil and gas industry downturn ‘is at best over or at worst stabilizing.’ Sales of more expensive homes — $300,000 and up — have declined about 8.5 percent, year over year in Lafayette Parish. Only two homes have sold for more than $1 million this year; 26 are listed. No homes in the $900,000 to $999,999 price range have sold in Lafayette Parish in 2017.”
“Bacque said the supply of homes in that $300,000-and-up range is about 11.6 months, ‘well in excess of the desired equilibrium.’”
The Victor Valley Daily Press in California. “A Lancaster man who owns a house in Barstow has started a petition in an effort to change laws to prevent other homeowners from having to deal with any headaches or nightmares associated with trespassers and squatters. While paying his electricity bill for his houses in Lancaster and Barstow on April 28, Alan Frey noticed service was ‘canceled’ at the Barstow location. The confusion prompted him to drive to Barstow. ‘There was a camper out front, pit bulls, mattresses, trash and windows open,’ he said.”
“I called the police. They went in and knocked on the door and the people presented a fake rental agreement with my name on it. … There was no signature on the form. They even claimed they were paying $1,800 a month for rent.’ With the help of police, Frey and the trespassers came to an agreement for them to leave the property by May 1. But after the squatters left later that day, Frey said he was left with a disaster.”
“Frey said he purchased the home June 2001. He expects to pay off the mortgage in June. He said he now intends to sell the house to avoid future headaches.”
The Real Deal on Florida. “Developers sold only 212 units — or less than 1 percent of the pipeline — during the first quarter of this year, as the supply of preconstruction condos slowly gets absorbed, according to a new ISG Miami Report. The majority of developments reported slight increases or no new sales by April compared to ISG’s November report. In the Brickell/Miami River submarket, for example, Rise at Brickell City Centre sold about 20 units during the five-month span. Brickell Ten, Echo Brickell and Cassa Brickell reported stagnant sales.”
“And One River Point, which wouldn’t provide a sales figure in the winter, said it is 15 percent presold. In Miami Beach, Lionheart Capital’s Ritz-Carlton Residences reported the same 60 percent in presales.”
From WOSU Public Media in Ohio. “It’s been 10 years since foreclosures reached a peak in Cuyahoga County. From 2007 to 2015, mortgage foreclosure numbers fell around 63 percent countywide, according to figures compiled by the Thriving Communities Institute. But despite this good news, there are Northeast Ohioans still feeling the aftermath of the crash and the financial instability it caused.”
“About a dozen years ago, Fred Brooks was taking care of his ailing mother. His mother had refinanced her home in Glenville with Argent, one of the biggest subprime lenders in the county. Argent sold her mortgage to Wells Fargo. After she died, the bank foreclosed. But Wells Fargo couldn’t find a buyer at sheriff’s sale. ‘That’s when it got really rough on my end, being that I was unemployed, really didn’t have a way to make property tax payment arrangements,’ he said.”
“The next to foreclose was Cuyahoga County in 2009, a peak year for county tax foreclosures. The county sold his mother’s house. In 2012, the new owner filed to evict him. The attorney he hired to help him has since died. The home is currently valued at $23,100, a bit more than one fourth the size of his late mother’s mortgage. Brooks said he’s stable now, but still wants his mother’s house back.”
“‘Because if I could have found some sort of halfway decent employment, I could have made arrangements to keep it,’ he said. ‘Yes, I would have been broke all the time with paying bills, but it’s a moral value, from where we come from. Like I grew up in that house.’”
Those who “are destabilizing the internal US political situation using anti-Russian slogans either don’t understand that they are bringing this nonsense in on their own side, and then they are just stupid, or else they understand everything, and then they are dangerous and corrupt people,” Putin said.
I’m going with the dangerous and corrupt.
I’m going with stupid.
I’m going with stupid because stupid explains a lot of human behavior in general, not just with this behavior in particular.
I make my living off of stupid. There seems to be no end to stupidity - burning stupidity - which makes me eternally grateful and forever glad.
My thanks goes out to No Child Left Behind and other stupid ideas.
There’s no reason it can’t be both stupid and dangerous and corrupt.
Bingo
Does Delusion seem possible? Requires neither stupidity or corruption.
I’m going with Selfish.
Selfishness leads to both stupidity and corruption. The need to have what I want rightthisminute and to have it beforetheotherguygetshishandsonit breeds stupidity and corruption better than anything else can.
I agree MacBeth. The worst part of it is that these selfish people are already multimillionaires. I can totally understand low-level meanness and corruption for middle and lower classes who compete for jobs to ends meet and put away a decent retirement.
But these guys don’t need to work another day in their lives, nor do their families. Why do they need untold millions? Why do they care if they pay 25% or more in taxes? It’s not as if they need the money. Instead of parking millions overseas or buying diamonds or $100 mil crap art, why don’t they create some real jobs, or buy medical supplies, or something useful?
Putin would destabilize America given half a chance.
We are doing a fine job ourselves. Don’t need Putin or any other external force.
George Soros while technically not an external force is working hard to destabilize us.
Yawn…
Report: Jared Kushner Didn’t Disclose $1 Billion in Loans, Investment Ties to Goldman Sachs and George Soros
Olivier Douliery-Pool/Getty
by Breitbart News
2 May 2017
President Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner didn’t disclose his part ownership of a real-estate finance startup known as Cadre, according to a Wall Street Journal review of Kushner’s securities and other filings.
…
That would mean a firing squad in China.
Why would Putin bother?
The America news media is doing a better job of destabilizing America than Putin could ever hope to do at any point in his lifetime.
Right wingers have been spouting that for half a century, maybe longer. America should be complete unstable (whatever that means) by now.
I think the nation is unstable. I know the followers of Pelosi are.
America has always been unstable and always will be. It’s a meaningless assertion.
MightyMike is unstable. And delusional. He thinks he’s mighty. We all know better.
There have been periods of greatly increased instability, notably before the civil war and around WWI. Some calculate that the instability and discontent of the period we are in now is bigger than those.
Discontent is certainly. Stability, however, is not a well defined thing. Crime in the big cities is significantly lower than it was 25 years ago.
Tattoos are at an all time peak though!
You can probably remember the days when boys wore their hair long, like girls. The horror! At least that stopped.
They used the boys bathrooms back then, there was no horror. Lol
Are any of u getting cold calls from lenders?
Not phone calls, but plenty of loan offer letters from WellsFargo and Discover. Wells being my bank and Discover being one of the credit cards I have.
Oh, maybe I misunderstood your question?
I’m getting a lot of cold emails from banks wanting me to refi. Quicken offered me a refi for 25 basis points higher than my interest rate now.
Of course, they made a big deal of telling me that their proposed monthly nut (even at a higher interest rate) would be less than my monthly nut now. Well duh, that’s because the refi would re-start the clock. I’d be stretching a ~17-year mortgage back out to 30 years. No way, thanx. But I wonder how many people got sucked in by a lower howmuchamonth?
I got one from Chase maybe 6 weeks ago. More of a c’mon down to the branch and let us show you around and introduce you to all these great products we got.
“‘There are a lot of first-time buyers in their early 30’s in good locations, buying,’ said John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. ‘It’s somebody’s first house, but they both went to college, and they’re making $200,000 each.’”
How many people fall into that demographic? It has to be under 5% of the population.
Mr Burns has to say it. He has to lie.
Government workers.
The new 5%ers
2banana: If by government employees you mean police (or military) who with overtime easily make that amount in cities - then yes I agree. The new 5% easily. Nice work if you can get it. …you can get it if you try.
But not a lot of government work pays lavishly - a lot of it look luxurious by comparison to the pension-less, fireable-without-cause masses hanging on by a fingernail.
Less than 5% of HOUSEHOLDS (read dual incomes) make over $200k.
John Burns Consulting has offices based in La Jolla and Irvine. So no wonder he thinks some $400K Millenial couple is just now looking for a $950K trade-up home.
Household formation over the past 12 months was approximately 1.2MM. This includes new buyers, new renters, pretty much everyone that strikes out on their own to gain an independent address from where ever they were living.
Of this 1.2MM new households, 850k were owner occupants.
Every year, there are approximately 4MM people born (and this has been pretty steady). So, there are 4MM people who go from 28 to 29, etc.
So, are the 850k buyers the top 35% of income of the 4MM (accounting for some single people buying)? Are the 850k the top 20% of income (accounting for people who have waited far longer than usual to buy)?
So, perhaps UP TO 25% (5% of 20%) of these new owner households fall into the category Burns notes…it might only be 10% of new owner occupied households that fall into this category.
In other words, I would be shocked if every new owner occupied household falls into this category of making several hundred thousand per year. However, I would not be surprised if it represented 15-25% of the total.
With record low household formation, it doesn’t make a difference.
There are only 6 million households in the US making over 200 K per year. Of those 6 million probably about 2% are between 18-35.
The comment suggested both spouses are earning over $200K, which means the household earns over $400K.
So we are talking a lot fewer than 6 million, especially in the 18-35 age range of potential new homebuyers.
According to here:
https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/
Only 1.1% of households are making above $400k. I’d wager that very few of those households are married millenials. Of the folks I know in the bay area, most dudes that make >$200K are not married, nor are they in a real relationship. The one that I know that is married, his wife and MIL live with him and neither work, in a rental.
And to stretch this anecdote out further, the only folks I’ve seen buying houses around here have either 1) received a down payment from their parents or 2) lived with their parents for 5 or so years or 3) sold their mostly paid off house in Ohio of North Carolina and bought in the exurbs here. Most folks I run into that own bought between 2009 and 2013 and are just itching to tell you about their cash out refi plans.
I also witnessed a married #2 move out from their parents’ house to Connecticut and bought a townhouse with a basement for $125K. They couldn’t be happier.
Of the folks I know in the bay area, most dudes that make >$200K are not married, nor are they in a real relationship. The one that I know that is married, his wife and MIL live with him and neither work, in a rental.
So that probably means that you don’t know any $400k couples. But you’re probably barking up the right tree. The more typical $400k couple would be guy making 300k or more and a woman making 100k or less.
I work for one of the silicon valley companies, but not sure how much my coworkers on that coast make. I’m sure that any of them in tech are 6 figures, one guy revealed his salary and it was $120,000 and it was a lower tech position in the company.
Friends that moved there have done well, AFAIK. One worked for 2 years at a company and got $400K cashed out in stock. Another made millions after working for FB for a period before they were public (plus other companies surely contributed.)
Not everyone is going to be a winner out there but I think there are enough winners to buy houses?
Here in NoVA houses move really fast. I met a guy the other night who reading between the lines probably makes $140Kish and rents a single room, stores all the cash for his downpayment. Give him a few years he can probably put away a good amount of cash. How many others are doing the same? The really expensive places are probably just people moving up that lucked out and sold old shack for $500K and can afford loan on a $700K shack.
If they’re making 100K a pop I can guarantee you they’ve got just as much if not more in STUDENT LOANS!
I think Mr. Burns is a bit off - literally.
The guy’s in California.
What else do you expect him to say?
I am constantly bemused by what numerous people on the HBB say on a regular basis. Then I remember they are in California. A world unto itself, obsessed with itself, apart and distinct from the rest of the country.
Even for Cali that’s not true at all. It’s a small small number.
“Then I remember they are in California. A world unto itself, obsessed with itself, apart and distinct from the rest of the country.”
The Bay Area.
I personally don’t know any thirty-something couple here in Florida fitting that description. To the extent it exists, that demographic has to be very small, and largely limited to a few select industries, professions, and metropolitan areas. But that won’t stop us from building five overvalued “luxury” houses for everybody in it.
Some of the information from consultants is so bad you wonder how anybody makes a living peddling it.
‘It’s somebody’s first house, but they both went to college, and they’re making $200,000 each.’”
Said the parasitic house salesman slavering over his next commission.
“Buy now you’re competing with 400k couples! Er I mean sell now there are 400K couples looking to buy!”
rampant.mortgage.fraud.
where u been whistle britches?
‘It’s somebody’s first house, but they both went to college, and they’re making $200,000 each.’”
I work with a lot of highly paid millenials and I can guarantee you they’re not making $200k.
Even in silicon valley, $400K households are a definite minority. Maybe there are more if you count bonus and stock units, but it’s hard to get qualified and pay your mortgage with that, especially once the boom settles down. Besides, if you buy a house requiring two incomes, if one person loses their job, both default.
Maybe the Ivy league millenial elites who work on Wall St. or for some consulting firm. What percentage of the population are they? 0.1%?
Yeah, I was gonna say…I haven’t heard of that except perhaps the class of kids who inherit certain jobs ala Chelsea Clinton.
Ya know, this Burns guy sounds like the typical shyster realtard scammer full of lies. FEW make over 100k at that age let alone later.
Think about his karma. He lies through his teeth, convincing people to march off the debt cliff. That debt often destroys marriages, families and neighborhoods. He has to live with being that guy.
Bet he’s buddies with the car dealers though. Same ilk.
California is the most impoverished state in the country:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/17/san-diego-california-homelessness-mayor-kevin-faulconer
“tableau of squalor and suffering” isn’t what comes to mind when people think of San Diego”
It isn’t?
We had dinner in Little Italy last night on India Street at Ballast Point. We sat at the perimeter counters facing outside and my wife commented on the 5 different homeless people who came by checking the Trask cans for recycling items.
Urban living is challenging….
Here is another interesting observation: There are no real estate adds in the San Diego Union-Tribune this morning. I would guess 10-years ago a large percentage of their revenue was from builders and brokers.
Try the weekend paper!
Will do…..
Lots of homeless people plus sex criminals who live within walking distance of Little Italy.
I’d shop for condos in the beach communities north of La Jolla after the next crash, if I had money available to buy a condo. You’ll find the living conditions up there much more desirable than in the downtown homeless encampment area.
Great advice. We are going to look up there today. Thanks PB
Just in case this matters to your housing search:
Registered sex offenders in San Diego, California
…
According to our research of California and other state lists there were 1,281 registered sex offenders living in San Diego as of May 19, 2017.
The ratio of number of residents in San Diego to the number of sex offenders is 1,045 to 1.
The number of registered sex offenders compared to the number of residents in this city is smaller than the state average.
…
P.S. I have to wonder whether our landlords are concerned about whether they could rent out our place if we ever left, given that one of the 1,281 lives across the street.
“…given that one of the 1,281 lives across the street.”
Was he 19 and diddled his 16 yr/old girlfriend, or is this a serial predator?
“Was he 19 and diddled his 16 yr/old girlfriend, or is this a serial predator?”
According to his (deceased) mom, he didn’t do anything serious. In her opinion.
Apartment401 - Maybe by your definition - and even it it is, so what? What is your point?
A high homeless rate compared to other states does not mean California is “impoverished” nor the most impoverished state. You could say it is the “most homeless” state and that would make sense since it has about 20% of the country’s homeless population (streetsteam.org).
Did it occur to you that some homeless people ENJOY California and even move there for the nice weather and relatively tolerant and generous society? Same thing with Portland - particularly young runaways. I wouldn’t call that impoverishment.
I agree.
“The Land of the Haves and the Have Nots” is a more apt description of California.
Such tolerance is most fetching. Desirous, even. It’s so HOT! Geez, now I’m getting all worked up - I think of all that tolerance and botox and I just go crazy!!!
Permitting others to carry your water for you - so generous. Give them a buck or two a block? No wonder everyone in California thinks so highly of themselves. In Silicon Valley, even! One would think that with all that money, they would be the most selfish individuals on the planet. Nice to know that those owning $3 million homes and paying $3000 monthly rents are so mindful of others. That’s so HOT! Ostentation and tolerance is such a wicked combination….so…OMG!
All that feces and piss on sidewalks is a curious thing, though. Ah, well. Everyone must bear their burden, even the Tolerant.
Parlez-vous francais? Please say you do.
Wee, wee?
If debt is money, this is a good news, right? Everyone’s got mo’ money.
US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High, Hits Record $12.7 Trillion
😁
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC_2017Q1.pdf
The growth of debt is (this time around), NOT mortgage debt.
It’s student loans and auto. Mortgage debt is still below peak and growing slower than inflation, and I think that HELOC debt is actually falling.
debt slaves
Does it matter? If you can’t pay your student, credit card or other loans, you can’t pay your mortgage either?
HELOC times, baby!
Student loans and auto loans are for 5-10 years. Motgages are 30-years. Shorter term clears faster…. assuming you can make your payments.
Then you get a new car. Then there’s your kids’ college savings.
Bottom line if your mortgage takes significant portion of your income, you are always teetering on foreclosure.
Which is the case for most people who bought in last 5 years.
“The next to foreclose was Cuyahoga County in 2009, a peak year for county tax foreclosures. The county sold his mother’s house. In 2012.”
That’s a great article for anyone who thinks they don’t rent their property from the county.
Danville, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/danville-ca/home-values/
what is the market saying ?
if the 10% clawback and 15% corp rate don’t happen it’s lights out
10/15 yo
I’m going to march on it
anyone gonna BTFD today?
I wonder how Rental Watch got on with the DDR purchase today. They had an ~4.5% swing from when I checked this morning and at close. I seriously doubt that he day traded it though.
the vix had a serious move today.people made some money on that trade today.
How low does the market go before the margin calls start cascading in?
I traded this morning from the line at Peet’s…purchased my slug at $8.73 (8.7% dividend yield). Of course the stock could be trading 20% down next week, but for today, it looks like my timing was good.
Dooyah feel lucky? Dooyah, punk?
Not so lucky…..sold my stocks last year at $17,500 (half) and $18,500 (other half). I thought I’d sleep better, but now I’m regretful too! LOL
BTW, I don’t blame you for not taking the risk on DDR. I did put them last on my list. What solidified my decision to buy last night was in looking at the recent insider action. The new CEO and CFO added to their position in a pretty meaningful way in the last week…170k shares for the CEO and something like 50k for the CFO.
For a part of my portfolio, I figured I’d take a flyer alongside a billionaire insider and new management team who are all adding to their positions.
Talk to me in a year…I think it’s better than a coin flip that I’ll be happy…but who the hell knows…
Did they buy at market or were they granted the stock or given cheap options?
Good on you for that one.
With respect to the “doubt he traded it” I was specifically saying that I doubt you day traded it, rather than going for the long haul. Good luck on that one.
Did they buy at market or were they granted the stock or given cheap options?
They had non-market transactions when they were brought on-board (their grants)
This round was at market.
It’s worth noting that the CEO/CFO team sold the last REIT they were managing, so they probably made a bit of money (i.e. it’s credible that they had the liquidity to write the checks to buy the stock).
With respect to the “doubt he traded it” I was specifically saying that I doubt you day traded it, rather than going for the long haul. Good luck on that one.
I figured that was what you meant. I saw someone downgraded the stock today to “sell”. Great work analysts…wait until the stock has fallen 50%+ in less than a year to a level that is arguably absurdly low, and THEN downgrade to “sell”.
Barn doors closed…horses everywhere.
US Mortgage Indebtedness Reaches Record Level
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-17/us-household-debt-surpasses-2008-high-hits-record-127-trillion
I would hate to be that guy because my number pulls the average way down.
One guy who “fears” debt pulls the average way down. LOL
Laugh all you want Dave. There is no sense fearing what one has no exposure to, like gators, STDs or the fiery furnace. All quite dangerous, but no exposure.
I’m not the only one who doesn’t pull a debt donkey cart. 1/3 of homeowners have no mortgage! 1/3 of families rent! We pull the average down. They guys with debt, they are much worse off than the average suggests.
Pay no mind, Blue. He gets triggered easily.
Deflation is coming, no matter how much Yellen the Felon tries to print up more inflation for the debt donkeys.
Palmetto to Blues defense. Wierd/Sick
Cuck.
What ever is bothering Dave…?
Honestly, I do not think a few hundred points says anything.
No it does not. If you see 400-500 then that is something that should raise antenna
I should add that 372 off the top is no big deal. 10% correction off a top is. It uncommon. That’s 2000 points
Is not uncommon. Chit. Hard to proof on phone.
freefalling
Brazil is freefalling, the US looks like a minor correction.
The “freefall” continues we are up about 120 points. Similar to collapsing oil, WTI is back above 50 a barrel caw caw? Enjoy your Peking crow, you know who you are.
So that was the plan George Soros, destabilize the US with your puppets calling for impeachment and make money shorting the market. So George is your butt sore?
https://www.rt.com/business/388909-soros-bet-us-market/
“Bacque said the supply of homes in that $300,000-and-up range is about 11.6 months, ‘well in excess of the desired equilibrium.’”
Ok, how many of these houses do they have the sell? If it is 1000, then there are 100. If 10 then 1. When it is “-and-up” you can’t tell anything about the market at all. No ranges means no understanding. I hate it when there are nothing but stats. Stats are great as long as the actual numbers are understood at some point.
Regards,
Roidy
hold your nose and buy!
dude, seriously, yer crackin’ me up here.
Stats are like online profiles. Be prepared to be disappointed.
Does the Fed seriously believe the U.S. economy functions better when they are constantly intervening to throw wrenches into the market’s price equilibration process?
What gives them this strange idea?
Ya gotta love these Zillow maps that show foreclosures and pre-foreclosures in certain areas. Here, for example, is Land O Lakes, Florryduh. An exurb of Tampa. Where young families go to raise their kids and be posers. Looks like an attack of the blue measles.
https://www.zillow.com/homes/make_me_move/Land-O-Lakes-FL/pmf,pf_pt/house_type/32416_rid/pricea_sort/28.354093,-82.349225,28.162367,-82.610837_rect/11_zm/
The satellite pix are telling. Many of those pre-foreclosures are zero-lot-line cookie cutter shacks.
A lot of weird things happen in that part of Pasco County. To each his or her own, but that area and Wesley Chapel are not to my liking at all.
It’s just another day
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JodPHplACCE
When I heard about him dancing with Screech at a fundraiser, I realized he had gone into dementia.
End of an era.
I was just considering how this new price runup would play out. Today the mortgages are virtually all backed by the taxpayer. If there’s a recession and negative impact on the financial system, there will be bailouts and stimulus - i.e. wealth extracted from the general populace and firehosed at the favored group (asset holders+FIRE sector).
The past ten years have led to some unexpected political outcomes. When the next pound of flesh/wealth is extracted and reverse-robin-hooded, I have to wonder how that situation will play out. I imagine nationalism/populism will only be reinforced.
It doesn’t necessarily have to play out like that. If the financial sector is re-modularized into components which can fail without risking consumer deposits and corporate cashflows; components which can individually be lightly regulated; components which do not cause “financial pollution” - costs imposed on those outside the transactions.
Additionally, the government should get out of insuring the financial markets. It’s extraordinarily lucrative for the FIRE sector of course. We arrived here because politicians are so corruptible, willing to exchange money for favors. Campaign reform, harsh bribery/quid pro quo laws, with teeth, perhaps a Constitutional Amendment level change, need to be implemented to refocus politicians on governing, and away from fundraising.
I suspect conditions now are still too comfortable; big changes like I’ve suggested above may become more likely after the next round of stimulus/bailouts/wealth extraction.
On Wall street 2008 was the cretaceous period; it’s different this time.
Another blue measles outbreak of foreclosures and pre-foreclosures. Lutz, Florida.
https://www.zillow.com/homes/Lutz-FL_rb/
And last, but not least, Wesley Chapel, Florida.
https://www.zillow.com/homes/Wesley-Chapel-FL_rb/
Land O Lakes, Lutz and Wesley Chapel. What do these three areas have in common? They’re all Tampa Exurbs, where younger families in the area go to get a good hosing from the realtors. Where newly arrived young families from the Northeast and Midwest concerned about “good schools” for their kids congregate, hoping for a “new life” in the Sunshine State.
My friends, there is no vaccination for the “blue measles”.
Let’s take a look at an area called New Tampa.
https://www.zillow.com/homes/new-tampa_rb/
OK, so it’s smaller in area than the other three, but notice the blue measles are not quite so prevalent. What’s the difference? New Tampa is where the Indians and other assorted Asians concentrate. Most of them paid cash for their house.
All of it is featureless sprawl, suburban wasteland. No one ever has explained to me why some of those communities need to be gated, either. It’s a phony exclusivity.
Changing the subject, it’s been hotter than blazes here lately. We may hit 99 degrees today, which would tie Tampa’s all-time high. When I’m outside I can smell the smoke from the wildfires.
I have been at the continental divide level in New Mexico with snow for two mornings in a row.
New Tampa is where the Indians and other assorted Asians concentrate. Most of them paid cash for their house.
Doubtful
Indians got no cash. Some Chinese do.
But the whole all cash buyers is way to overblown.
The Indian community here tends to fall into two categories: medical professionals, often highly competent, and hustling, entrepreneurial business people who own convenience stores and cheap hotels and turn a surprising profit from those enterprises. I don’t know whether they often pay cash for their houses, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
Tons of Indians here as well (including my landlord.) They seem to overpay for houses a lot, and their realtors are also all Indian (Can see on Zillow where some 50 character name has had 40 recent sales, etc.)
I guess if the value goes down they can just move back home and leave the lender with the keys.
No one shows up to a closing with wads of hundred dollar bills. No houses are paid for with cash. And you have no way of know what the source of any bank funds are, and who they really owe money to. Just because it’s in their account doesn’t mean it’s really theirs.
But you do know if there is a recorded DOT against the property.
How many lenders are going to lend you money without recording a DOT?
None who want to stay in business for very long.
Sure, someone could borrow the money some other way…but usually there is collateral. So, if I have a brokerage account with $1MM, I could buy a house for “cash” by borrowing $200k against that $1MM, and no one would know.
But that is hardly some crazy dude borrowing from Fat Tony to buy their house.
You don’t know anything about immigrant communities
Oh my, there are foreclosures here in NoVA too! Man, if I could somehow get one of these places for like $400K it would be awesome.
Are ghost cities finally going to be inhabited?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-16/china-s-manhattan-sheds-ghost-town-image-as-towers-begin-to-fill
Speaking of China, I fully agree with Pat on this. Especially, the part about if we continue to let China have a $400 billion a year trade surplus with us, our industrial base is toast:
http://dailycaller.com/2017/05/17/pat-buchanan-it-isnt-watergate-yet-but-how-long-can-we-sustain-this/
US household debt hits record $12.7 trillion. Heckova job, Ben & Janet.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-17/us-household-debt-surpasses-2008-high-hits-record-127-trillion
“Heckova job, Ben & Janet.”
It’s not because of Ben & Janet, it’s because the U.S. is a nation filled with dummies.
“Starting around 1980, American society began to undergo a series of deep shifts. Deregulation, weakened antitrust enforcement, and technological changes led to increasing concentration of industry and finance. Money began to play a larger and more corrupting role in politics. America fell behind other nations in education, in infrastructure, and in the performance of many of its major industries. Inequality increased.
As a result of these and other changes, America was turning into a rigged game—a society that denies opportunity to those who are not born into wealthy families, one that resembles a third-world dictatorship more than an advanced democracy.”
Charles H. Ferguson, Predator Nation
Remember that when you here the one percenters baying for more deregulation. Also, the decline of the unions played an important role in addition to deregulation and weakened antitrust enforcement.
Does your Red Pioneers neckerchief ever cut off your circulation? You show signs of oxygen deprivation.
The truth hurts, doesn’t it?
The end result of:
Bigger and bigger government, higher and higher taxes and more and more regulations.
The Soviets (or pick any example) had total control of their economy.
And had highest inequality…
No, that’s not it. There was a big decline in inequality during the period when the federal government was growing rapidly.
Inequality was dropping when we controlled our borders and then we stopped and then capital had access to cheap labor and American workers were displaced. Liberals just don’t seem to understand the obvious, open borders favors capital over labor. If you are against the wall, you are for the .01 percent.
Not to mention that 1980 is just about the time that America started getting fat. My neighborhood is largely Hispanic and the kids age 10-12 are getting fat, and not in a good way. We’re going to have a huge crisis in about 20 years when half the country has heart disease or diabetes.
When the call the millennials the largest generation, it really does have two meanings.
Oh dear…this doesn’t look like green shoots to me.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-17/housing-recovery-us-mortgage-applications-tumble-most-2016
Orange shoots, baby.
Why should taxpayers be put on the hook for student loan deadbeats?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-to-propose-scrapping-beleaguered-student-loan-forgiveness-program-report-2017-05-17
In Amerikka every bad behavior has to be rewarded.
#amerikkanexceptionlism
‘Murica!
“In Amerikka every bad behavior has to be rewarded.”
True, but the rewards do not necessarily flow to those exhibiting the bad behavior.
Dedicated to the average dumbed-down-over-his-head-in-debt borrower of money that is destined to never be earned, money that will never be paid back, debt that will never go away …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p13yZAjhU0M
No dollar escapes.
Outlaw consequences, NOW!!!
Down with yoga pants!
It depends who is wearing them. With some women I prefer they keep them up.
“The program, which allows borrowers working in public service to have their federal student loans forgiven after 10 years of payments, has been a subject of concern for borrowers and advocates over the past several months amid signals that borrowers may not get the forgiveness they’ve been counting on.”
Educated adults “counting on forgiveness.” What have we become?
Forgiveness isn’t the problem. Free money and the resultant lack of ethics is the problem.
It is to be expected that those willing to screw their own children, friends and neighbors would ask for forgiveness.
Having several properties, facelifts, digital gadgetry, BMWs and Starbucks are what’s really important.
Doing right by others - having a conscious - isn’t.
“What have we become?”
Profit centers?
Not sure what exact numbers are, but a good %age of those seeking forgiveness are in the medical field. 10 years of public service is easy when including medical residencies and fellowships totaling upwards of 9 years depending upon specialty. IBR for $50k resident/fellow salary is nothing compared to the forgiven $200k+ med school loan.
Once again, unintended consequences of public policy. Also shows MDs are pretty good at choking the golden goose.
Probably a good place to open up an auto repair business or an ambulance service.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/UEIn8GJIg0E?rel=0
Great example there of government deregulation in action!
“When the system is rigged, when ordinary citizens are powerless, and when whistle-blowers are pariahs at best, three things happen:
First, the worst people rise to the top. They behave appallingly, and they wreak havoc.
Second, people who could make productive contributions to society are incented to become destructive, because corruption is far more lucrative than honest work.
And third, everyone else pays, both economically and emotionally; people become cynical, selfish, and fatalistic. Often they go along with the system, but they hate themselves for it. They play the game to survive and feed their families, but both they and society suffer.”
Charles H. Ferguson, Inside Job
Rents are dropping for the first time in six or seven years. They have a lot further to fall. Sorry, landlord, but I don’t have to cover your mortgage - you do.
https://moneyish.com/hoard/rents-in-san-francisco-and-these-4-other-cities-are-getting-slashed-like-crazy/
No that’s simply not true.
They can walk away at any point when they no longer wish to cover it.
A 2017 Jeep for $12,000. Wouldn’t own one, but Carmageddon is starting to bite.
http://www.hbchryslerdodgejeepram.com/commercial-new/Jeep/2017-Jeep-Renegade-orange-county-359583b40a0e0ae85b8927d0c0abeae1.htm
Couldn’t imagine that fugly jeep in my driveway… and making payments on it.
“This vehicle was previously sold New and then returned to the Dealer. ”
What does that mean? It was a lemon and returned? Repo’d? Wife didn’t like it? It sure is fugly.
So it’s used and a key question is the mileage. The vehicle has its own web page but the mileage is not listed.
IIRC, it’s actually a Fiat rebadged as a Jeep.
Wake me when we see ‘16 - ‘17 Accords and Camry’s going for that end of year.
Then we can truly call it Carmageddon.
A triple wide with an ocean view is still a triple-wide. $4 million to live in a trailer home? No thanks.
https://moneyish.com/splurge/itll-cost-you-2-5-million-to-live-in-this-mobile-home-in-a-trailer-park-in-california/
Which housing bubble burst is going to be first? And most spectacular?
Got popcorn?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-15/new-zealand-housing-market-most-at-risk-of-bust-goldman-says
Chinese commodity brokers are lurching closer to insolvency as the nation’s building spree funded with central bank funny money has become increasingly unsustainable, despite what our resident crow-eater would have us believe.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-18/noble-group-lifeline-depends-on-bank-support-for-2-billion-loan
The article cites one broker that has been in trouble for years and even that one has its bonds rising even though its stock is dropping. Hardly supports your implied contention that there is some general calamity about to hit China. Enjoy your Peking crow.
Growth of debt in china continues apace at 10% per year. It’s like grabbing a wolf by the ears; can’t hold on, can’t let go.
If you combine inflation and growth in China it too is growing by 10% in nominal terms so that certainly mitigates the problem. Actually, I think debt is growing somewhat faster than 10% or it would not be a problem at all.
ABQ - Do you have an ” I love China” bumper sticker on your Ford Focus? Do the locals approve?
“not be a problem at all”
On the contrary. As the overhang of debt increases in size the risks from any instability increase. Increasing wages should result in lower debt in a rational economy. All the growth is from the increase in debt, and it is very inefficient. This is what scares Beijing. If they put the brakes on the debt increase growth will reverse and they have no plan on how to handle the carnage. So they continue. And so it becomes more fragile. It’s like holding a wolf by the ears.
The whole world is in this same mess. China is the epicenter.
ABQ - Do you have an ” I love China” bumper sticker on your Ford Focus? Do the locals approve?
Chevy Cruze, I drive a couple of them. No bumper stickers at all on either one. If you really could read and comprehend, you would have understood my posts to say, I do not like the Chinese government at all and consider them a danger to us. However, I never underestimate an enemy, China is much stronger than most of this board realizes and the comments about it on this board are much like the comments about Japan prior to WW II. Pilots could not fly because they were too near sighted, our planes were so much better etc. All proved wrong and it was very fatal to many Americans. Thinking China is about to implode is wishful thinking that has been going on at least as long as I have been reading this blog in 2005. After a while you would think people would get enough of Peking crow,
You’ve got it all wrong. Their strength is highly leveraged. This presents great risk to the rest of us. Biggest debt donkey in the herd.
They don’t really have three billion to buy property, they all are poor making 10 cents an hour:
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/real-estate/HK-tycoon-pays-record-US3b-for-prime-plot/shdaily.shtml
“they all are poor making 10 cents an hour…”
Wrong as usual.
the experts are out parading around saying this is a buying opportunity. Do not panic! BTFD
The Financial Times
US News
Market Shocks
Trump woes no match for the ‘Buy the Dip’ mindset
Investors focus on resilient global economy and better corporate profits in US and Europe
…
Apartment 401, care to comment?
I’m starting to get the whole MGTOW thing.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/17/economists-men-now-need-more-than-just-money-to-be-marriageable.html
Real men don’t sweat… they glisten.
Real women don’t sweat…they glow.
+1 I like it… great comeback.
More than money = A LOT MO’ MONEY.
Alpha lays, beta pays
They love that betabux.
The main point of the article is that couples are having kids at the same rate but not getting married. Which raises the question — da fuq is wrong with women these days? Why would they allow themselves to become pregnant with some guy who could leave her at any moment? Kids are a 25-year commitment. Surely that’s worth some rings and papers?
Why would they allow themselves to become pregnant with some guy who could leave her at any moment?
Many can’t resist the tingles, and they don’t get them from “providers”.
Many can’t resist the tingles, and they don’t get them from “providers”.
+1 True, and best laugh I’ve had today.
Smart Women/Foolish Choices: Finding the Right Men Avoiding the Wrong Ones
“Surely that’s worth some rings and papers?”
Haha, old fashioned. The ladies up my way have a child with each sole-mate in they’ve loved, a memento or keepsake.
The article doesn’t quite explain what’s going on. One theory is that marriage is now a middle class institution. The working class has given up on it. Those oil workers may have moved up the income ladder, but neither they nor their women have moved into the middle class.
“Why would they allow themselves to become pregnant with some guy who could leave her at any moment?”
Cause the guy doesn’t want to commit to marriage and future alimony payments?
Tell the Alarmists to Calm Down, the Debt Crisis is Not Coming Back
Published: 17 May 2017
There were a number of articles about the scary news that debt levels are again above their housing bubble peaks. If you need something to be scared about (really?) I suppose you can worry about this, but if you want to seriously consider the economic impact of this data point, there ain’t much there.
There are two big differences between now and our previous peak ten years ago. One is that the economy and income is considerably higher today. The other major difference is that interest rates are considerably lower on average than they were ten years ago.
We actually have a very good summary statistic from the Federal Reserve Board that tells us the burden of the debt level. It is called the “financial obligations ratio.” It measures the ratio of debt service payments, plus rent, to disposable income. (Rent is included since rent and mortgage payments can be seen as substitutes.)
Here’s the story since they started the series in 1980.
http://cepr.net/images/Book1_13400_image002.png
As can be seen, at 15.4 percent, this ratio is near its low point for the last four decades. It is far below the peaks hit during the housing bubble years. In other words, there is little reason to worry about debt burdens suddenly creating a massive drag on the economy and leading to the sort of financial crisis we saw when the housing bubble collapsed.
This doesn’t mean that many people are not struggling to cope with student loans and other debts. Household income has barely recovered from pre-crisis levels and many families are still worse off than they were a decade ago. That’s a really bad story, but it doesn’t mean a financial crisis is imminent.
http://cepr.net/blogs/beat-the-press/tell-the-alarmists-to-calm-down-the-debt-crisis-is-not-coming-back
“In the first quarter of 2017, consumer debt rose to $12.73 trillion, exceeding its peak in the third quarter of 2008.”
You can find it in the NYTimes May17.
I read this and realized the article really was not serious.. “income is considerably higher today.”
He means nominal income, not real income.
Whenever I read this kind of article, I wonder if the author really mean it or it is something he is forced to do for his job? How can he use aggregate measure to back his points. It would be interesting to look at number of individuals with DSR above a certain cutoff.
I remember when environmentalists were above politics and just were concerned with the environment and were not an appendage of the Democrats. They lost me when they refused to support restrictions on immigration, not pro-environment but definitely pro-Democrat. Now, since former fearless leader made a deal with the Chinese, they can do no wrong. As I said at the time, China gave up nothing since it is running out of coal to burn, we gave up our competitive advantage over the world. Hard to say whether Obama’s deal with China was the worse deal ever or whether the Iran deal was the worse, they both are so bad.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/05/17/greens-forgive-china-their-coal-plants/
They lost me when they refused to support restrictions on immigration
So you must have quit the Sierra Club at that point.
As I said at the time, China gave up nothing since it is running out of coal to burn, we gave up our competitive advantage over the world.
China imports coal from Australia. There are probably a lot other countries willing to sell coal to China.
Yes but the imported coal puts China at a severe disadvantage to the US with its much cheaper coal. And yes I did stop contributing to the Sierra Club at that point.
Even adjusting for the difference between a US ton and a metric ton, the price of the exported coal from Australia to China far exceeds what electric plants pay here:
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/chinese-supply-reforms-driving-seaborne-thermal-coal-prices-analyst/
Yes but the imported coal puts China at a severe disadvantage to the US with its much cheaper coal.
We’re not really competing with China much at this point. More expensive coal may be a “disadvantage”, but paying workers a few dollars a day is a great advantage for Chinese business.
lol@lola
‘It’s somebody’s first house, but they both went to college, and they’re making $200,000 each.’
What share of under-40 couples in the US pull down $400K+? 1 in 1000? 1 in 10,000? Less?
It depends upon what city and neighborhood you are in. It’s a whole lot higher than 1 in 1000 where I live, with 20-somethings plunking down $1.4M for a home and driving around $100K Teslas.
There’s plenty of that around here, too. But I wonder how much is real wealth, and how much is based on hope (of future price appreciation, of startups going IPO, and such) that will disappear, just like 2001 (dot-bombs) and 2008.
That said, besides knowing a number of people with worthless stock options, I do know of at least a couple families who do have substantial wealth from stock options.
“plunking down”
I’m guessing that is quite unlikely, as in actually paying for it. More likely they’re feeling good borrowing 10x gross income.
I was talking about as a share of the entire country, not of your tech-money-infused neighborhood…
https://www.zillow.com/miami-fl/home-values/
How can you ever break even if your prediction is negative for prices?
Makes no sense
Also you have to deduct 6% for fees !
no new topics = Ben’s living-it-up poolside somewhere in Tejas w/tequila in one hand & curves in the other!
like “Leaving Las Vegas”
“Leaving Las Vegas” = most depressing movie ever.
“The Whole Year Inn”
It’s a little late to tighten auto lending.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-17/banks-tighten-auto-lending-as-more-borrowers-fall-into-default
That news clip is telling… too many fancy-educated service-economy types trying to live off of a narrowing credit spread, selling debt, reporting on debt, hedging debt, talking about debt, etc., no way it can pencil-out without taxpayers guaranteeing the whole kit and caboodle.
What struck me was the factoid of 4 million cars coming off lease, and that many of the sales are SUVs and trucks. This is good news to me. My ol’ beater is getting long in the tooth and I will probably replace it late this summer with a sedan.
2-4 yr old car prices are crashing
I’m waiting till July -get the grads out of the way
“get the grads out of the way”
Technically the grads’ parents, but yes — good thinking.
Actually, the timing is perfect…at least according to Mark Twain’s adage:
I am shocked, shocked! to hear that TBTF banks have engaged in criminal racketeering.
(Of course, not a single bankster will be criminally charged or see the inside of a prison cell in our crony capitalist wonderland.)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-16/deutsche-bank-will-face-fresh-accusation-in-monte-paschi-trial
Yellen’s flying monkeys inform us we mustn’t use rate hikes to fight asset bubbles. In fact, we should never do anything to fight asset bubbles, because our Keynesian central planners know what’s best for us. Buy moar stawks!
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-kashkari-idUKKCN18D2E1
But…but…the HBB’s resident crow connoisseur keeps assuring us that Chinese economic data is fundamentally sound. My illusions, they be shattered.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-18/chinese-state-run-enterprise-exposed-cooking-books
To paraphrase Bubba Gump:
You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, saute it. Dey’s uh, crow-kabobs, crow creole, crow gumbo. Pan fried, deep fried, stir-fried. There’s pineapple crow, lemon crow, coconut crow, pepper crow, crow soup, crow stew, crow salad, crow and potatoes, crow burger, crow sandwich….
Crow Pie is the traditional dish.
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/it/Alibabas-quarterly-profit-doubles/shdaily.shtml
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/auto/Bosch-sees-19-rise-in-China-sales/shdaily.shtml
Illinois: what a cautionary tale.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-18/illinois-punished-by-bond-market-as-deadline-nears-amid-fighting
Used car prices keep dropping. When are used house prices going to do the same?
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/05/18/used-vehicle-trade-in-values-sink-hit-new-vehicle-sales/
Bond holders are holding “pick a payment” loans that have a balloon payment coming due; does “Janet the croupier” have their back?
Looks like Home Capital has staunched its hemorrhage of money, for now.
http://www.homecapital.com/press_releases/2017/HCG%20Liquidity%20Update%20May%2018%202017.pdf
Hong Kong putting the screws to serial house speculators, aka future FBs.
http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2094991/hong-kong-tightens-mortgage-rules-second-time-week-property
A year from now, millions of Canadian FBs are going to be hating on the officials who assured them the fundamentals supported their insane housing bubbles.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-18/canadian-officials-preach-calm-as-housing-warnings-surface
Janet Yellen sees no bubbles.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-19/purchased-19000-1984-basquiat-painting-sells-mind-blowing-111-million
less than half the listings in my hood appear on Zillow ??
que?
Da Boyz keep trying to lure more marks into the rigged casino before cashing out of the Wall Street-Federal Reserve pump & dump.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-young-investors-should-embrace-volatility-2017-05-18
It’s pretty amazing how slowly the death of this bull market is playing out!
Yellen sees no bubbles.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-19/bofa-warns-tech-mania-risk-sees-highest-tech-inflows-dot-com-bubble
I changed username, I have my place listed on Zillow and agree, less than half show up,
the map is a mess and few places are correct, they have my neighbors place listed for sale on the map
I am talking about HAR, this doesn’t affect me since I am FSBO
We must help debt donkeys evade their financial obligations.
It’s for the children.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/can-this-blob-help-people-fight-debt-collectors-2017-05-19
The ineptitude of China’s central planners is surpassed only by the gang of counterfeiters and racketeers at the Fed.
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-05-18/china-creates-own-insurance-monster
My links showing the strength of the Chinese economy do not appear so it is hard to debate you with my mouth being taped shut.
Speaking of Chinese mania, bitcoin $1900. Wow, just wow.
Makes one wonder for how much longer the perception of the dollar as the healthiest horse in the glue factory will last.
Here we go again with Yellen’s played-out Lucy and the Football routine. Right on cue, Yellen’s flying monkeys are backing off the rate-hike jawboning. I repeat: Yellen the Felon will never hike rates of her own volition, as bilking savers out of interest income and forcing them to play in Wall Street’s rigged casino is too lucrative a racket for the Fed and its bankster cohorts to ever voluntarily relinquish.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-bullard-questions-need-for-june-rate-hike-2017-05-19
https://www.yahoo.com/news/apos-salary-afford-home-22-210158504.html
DEER DE says good times coming
anyone know about the farm cycle ?
The “good times” depend on extending cheap, easy credit.
The good times and mark-to-fantasy accounting ends when said credit turns into non-performing loans.
If extremely bad weather hits Australia or Brazil the US farmers will be back in the money.
Three generations of FBs around the Thanksgiving table should make for a delightful bonding experience.
http://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-downpayment-10-percent-moynihan-2017-5
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/real-estate/Home-prices-stabilize-in-15-cities/shdaily.shtml
A year ago China was dropping another load of stimulus money. Oil went up. This year, not so much.
Rasmussen rules, btw despite everything Trump’s poll numbers are like a rock on Rasmussen
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/commentary_by_ted_carroll/nate_s_silver_hammer_misses_the_mark
It’s because he is still not Hillary.
And Hillary still is Hillary. I expect this stalemate to continue until the Ds admit that screwing Bernie and then attempting to force Hillary on a population that hadn’t liked her or trusted her for over 20 years was a bad idea. Regardless of her competence and experience.
She was the most qualified side of beef in all of American history.
A vote for Trump was the only way to keep Crooked Hillary out of the White House.
I was hoping a house from Kansas would blow in and land on her, but that was a forlorn hope.