May 21, 2017

Tremendous Velocity That Is Not Normal In Any Market

Expanding on the previous weekend topic with the Amarillo Globe News in Texas. “Housing demand keeps rising in Amarillo, and the supply isn’t keeping up. Local real estate agents say first-time buyers, retirees seeking medical care and country folk moving into town have crowded the housing market and caused prices to rise, especially in the city’s most expensive neighborhoods. A similar imbalance persists in cities across the country. Oklahoma City saw an 8.6 percent drop in houses on the market from March 2016 to March 2017, per The Oklahoman. In Westchester, N.Y., a real estate agent told how he showed a house to 26 prospective buyers on one Sunday afternoon in April.”

“Listing prices are skyrocketing in Amarillo’s most expensive neighborhoods. According to Amarillo Multiple Listing Service (MLS), the average asking price for a home in Eagle Tree jumped by about $180,000 (50.8 percent) in the last year, La Paloma/Tascosa Estates homes on the market increased by about $130,000 (33 percent), and other neighborhoods are seeing significant increases in average asking price as well. The average listing in the Puckett neighborhood went from $161,353 to $249,035, a 54.3 percent increase.”

“Amarillo Triangle Realty co-founder Jamie Haynes doesn’t expect the trend to slow down any time soon. ‘I think we’re in a growth spurt, and Amarillo just hit this mystical, magical number (of 200,000 residents) where it started to boom,’ she said. ‘We’re going to see that see all the way down to Canyon.’”

The Waco Tribune-Herald in Texas. “It’s hard to be too surprised about rising tax appraisals when the superlatives about Waco real estate keep piling up. Waco-area ZIP codes last year topped the list for most popular searches on, thanks in part to a certain television show. In the first quarter of 2017, the city of Waco saw a record 151 housing permits issued. And local real estate agents are seeing things they’ve never seen in Waco, such as bidding wars over coveted homes.”

“The most obvious change has been the phenomenal success of the HGTV show ‘Fixer Upper,’ which has driven national attention to the bargain home prices here. ‘In 37 years, this is the strongest seller’s market I’ve seen,’ said Kathy Schroeder, vice president of residential property at Coldwell Banker Jim Stewart Realtors. She said the media coverage has brought in out-of-town investors who are willing to put far more money into older homes than was once thought prudent.”

“‘We’ve had a good diversity of buyers,’ Schroeder said. ‘We’ve seen some investor-speculators, some Baylor-related, but also a lot of people who have been renting property who can now qualify for a loan.’”

From The Oklahoman. “Ian Colgan was a real buzz buster at the otherwise celebratory Mayor’s Development Roundtable last week, presenting a sobering but necessary housing reality check on all the good Oklahoma City has going for it. Housing affordability has been a key strength of the city’s renaissance, but we’re losing it.”

“Rising costs are hitting the working poor hard, and rising rents and house payments are eating away at the stats that earned the city its reputation as a great place for first-time homebuyers and renters, said Colgan, assistant executive director of the Oklahoma City Housing Authority. Of the 50 biggest cities in the country, he said, Oklahoma City is the 32nd most expensive for homeownership and the 43rd most expensive for renting. So far, so good.”

“‘No Midwestern, Southern or Mountain West city’s rental market grew faster than that of Oklahoma City, including Texas,’ Colgan said. ‘Only Austin and Fort Worth (Texas) had faster growth rates for non-coastal cities. In Oklahoma City, Colgan said, more than 20,000 households pay more than half of their gross income for rent, which makes them ’severely’ cost-burdened. ‘The less income, the more burden. The estimate is that about 20 percent of city households making between 30 to 50 percent of area median income, and about 60 percent of households making 30 percent or less of median income, are severely burdened,’ he said.”

“‘Whether this is gentrification, this trend is worrisome,’ he said, referring to investing and renovating housing in poor areas to levels that attract higher-income renters who can pay the higher rents, shutting out poorer residents. Stagnant wages, in the face of rising home values and costs, also are taking a toll and creeping up the income scale. New apartments are almost all market rate, not aimed at the affordable market. Of 2,546 apartment units under construction or in planning in the city during the 2014-2015 research period, just 238 were affordable.”

The Real Deal on Florida. “While Miami’s residential market has hit the downside of the cycle, fears of a potential crash are largely unfounded, according to real estate professionals who spoke at Keyes Company’s 2017 South Florida New Development Showcase. Anthony Graziano, chairman of Integra Realty Resources who joined Pappas onstage, said the biggest problem facing brokers is convincing sellers to readjust their prices in a buyer’s market. ‘We cannot expect Miami to go back to 2013 and 2014 when Brazil was flush with petroleum dollars and Venezuela was not in the middle of civil unrest,’ Graziano said, referring to the record-setting boom years of the most recent cycle.”

“Reza Parsiani also said any comparisons to the boom years of the cycle are unfair. ‘We have seen tremendous velocity and movement that is not normal in any market,’ he said. ‘In 2015, I did 17 transactions a day. That is extraordinary. Now, we are just normalizing.’”

The New Zealand Herald. “It is remarkable the extent to which the tone of conversations about property has changed in Auckland. The slowdown started as far back as July last year when there were signs that the rate of growth had peaked. But it was hard to be sure, at least until April, because the same kind of slowdown occurred in late 2015. This time around growth appears to have stalled good and proper.”

“What got me was how quickly the tone of the conversation has changed at social events in Auckland over the past few weeks. The stories are told by those who are trying to sell, or have close friends or family trying to sell. And they all suggest it’s taking longer than they’d like. Open homes aren’t packed, auctions aren’t happening. Fear and worry are starting to take hold among sellers and their real estate agents. The lawyers and the bankers are getting antsy.”

“The difference between nine potential buyers or 10 turning up at your open home isn’t much at all. But one buyer instead of two makes a huge difference to the price you can command. No buyers, compared to one, and it doesn’t take long for the panic to set in.”

“In theory, with immigration still at record levels and supply slow to catch up, prices can’t fall far. But if immigration has been such a big driver of growth, why has Auckland growth hit the wall while longterm visitor arrivals continue to hit new records?”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-21 07:36:50

‘She said the media coverage has brought in out-of-town investors who are willing to put far more money into older homes than was once thought prudent. ‘We’ve had a good diversity of buyers,’ Schroeder said. ‘We’ve seen some investor-speculators, some Baylor-related, but also a lot of people who have been renting property who can now qualify for a loan.’

A TV flipping show bringing in speculators. And “can now qualify” suggests lower lending standards. With prices going up 50% in a year, lending standards should be tightening, not easing.

Comment by oxide
2017-05-22 05:14:59

“Fixer Upper” is probably the most annoying flipper show on TV. Most of the show consists of the hosts fondling each other on camera while in the background the actual (many illegal) workers quietly do the fixing up.

And isn’t it a stupid idea to look for fixer-upper houses in Waco, considering that already Fixer Upper’s turf? Speculators should choose some other undiscovered cow town to invade. Let them find out that there are as many people in their chosen cow town that can afford granite countertops and fancy tiled showers, as there are in Waco (which is of course, none in either).

Comment by rms
2017-05-22 07:39:14

There was Claire Sweeney — Busty 60 Minute Makeover

Comment by taxpayer
2017-05-22 11:29:45

10-4 a new house in WACO is 100 sq ft-why would you fix up a wreck?
your neighbors would be meth heads

Comment by oxide
2017-05-22 14:48:52

I agree, taxpayer. People can’t seem to grasp that in most of flyover, renovations cost more than the house is worth. It’s clearly worth $50K to update a 3/2 ranch in Springfield VA. But the same 3/2 ranch in Buffalo NY? The Buffalo house is worth $75K at most. Why pour money into it? Same thing for Waco or any other cow town.

And to make things worse, anyone with a real job who can afford a souped-up ranch would probably opt for a shiny new house anyway.

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Comment by scdave
2017-05-21 07:58:17

I have mentioned a few times that I thought these historically low long term mortgage interest rates would have some effect on turnover of SFR’s in the future…Here is a article that suggests that is the case…

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-21 09:00:11

‘Glenn Kelman, chief executive of Redfin, a national real estate brokerage firm, sees this in the form of a persistent inventory shortage. More people are buying tear-downs. The bidding wars that have come to characterize hot job markets like San Francisco and Seattle are spreading to less-expensive cities.’

‘The Olsons live in Chicago in a two-bedroom apartment with views of Wrigley Field. For the last few years, when winter turned to spring, they embarked on a weekend-to-weekend journey in search of their first home.

When they started, it was just the two of them, and they limited their search to two nearby neighborhoods. But with inventory scarce, competition high and a newborn who arrived in January, they now go to open houses with their son in a baby carrier and have expanded their search to encompass most of the city’s North Side and a few nearby suburbs.’

“There is no inventory — we’re talking four or five houses in our price range a week,” said Mr. Olson, who works in information technology at a bank. “Some of those are houses with holes in the floor, holes in the roof — and even those are flying off the market.”

Spreading to less expensive cities, like it’s the flu.

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2017-05-21 09:47:20

Everybody wants to live in Chicago.

Comment by Taxpayers
2017-05-21 13:31:33

Come to get shot,stay for the 17% tax increases

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-21 20:28:17

Death and taxes, the two certainties of life.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-05-21 12:30:16

1. Buy Home Depot and Lowes?
2. Couldn’t this trend also be indicative of people taking a more conservative view of homeownership? Rather than move to bigger and better frequently, find a way to stay put?

The more people view a house as a home (and not an investment), the less they are inclined to “trade up” frequently.

I think your theory relates to people being “locked-in” to a low rate, and thus being dis-incentivized from selling (and needing to borrow at higher rates). However, rates are still pretty low, so if you effect was going to take place, it would really be seen once rates started to rise more significantly. The trend toward staying put for longer started in 2009…rates have largely stayed rock bottom since then.

Comment by cactus
2017-05-22 09:31:59

5% realtor commission is a big bite that can be used to fix up what you have already.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-21 08:09:03

This was in the comments to the last post about Robert Shiller’s NYT opinion piece:

‘From the NYT comments: “It’s very demoralizing to read such deliberately misleading stuff from such a distinguished author. Very powerful interests have worked relentlessly to prevent consensus about why the housing boom and bust happened since the collapse of the debt derivatives casino. This article contributes to that confusion by studiously ignoring the institutionalized fraud that made the MBS and CDS casinos possible. This is an astonishing omission.
In 2005, a banker at WAMU offered me a million dollar liar’s loan, no questions asked. I wasn’t even making 6 figures. I told him he was crazy and walked out. He could do that because WAMU was going to dump that subprime loan into a bundle, wipe out the connection between deed of title and promise to pay using the fraudulent MERS system, use the fraudulent credit rating system to give that garbage security a AAA rating and then sell potentially toxic slices of that fraudulently-created pizza to shadow banking and foreign investors hungry for return. All that fraud was possible because the creators, sellers and buyers of that junk, along with people just standing around the casino watching all the fraud, were allowed to buy and sell insurance against collapse of those toxic securities in the form of credit default swaps without having to maintain the capital reserves to pay off those swaps should default occur. That was the biggest fraud. Flippers did not cause the housing boom and bust. Fraud by lenders, enabled by legislators, did.” —Joe, NY’

‘Comment by Ben Jones

‘Flippers did not cause the housing boom and bust. Fraud by lenders, enabled by legislators, did’

‘Yet these exact conditions don’t exist in Vietnam, Cambodia, Dubai or Lagos, just to name a few. There are bubbles in these places right now. This is the shaky argument that was put in place by the PTB as they recreated the conditions for the mania. As a result we’re right back to high prices good, lower prices bad. OK, now it’s a “crisis” here and unaffordable there. Just where did all this get us and what did we learn? If ridiculously high house prices could be sustained it would never have collapsed in the first place.’

‘There were countless postmortems written about the housing bubble, prior to the “subprime/lender fraud caused it all” nonsense came up. The common theme I remember was, we shouldn’t look at houses as investments. Turn on a TV. Do flipping shows reflect a public that has embraced get rich quick via houses?’

‘I’m not that interested in the blame game. IMO the question should be, how should the prices of these things, and the related financing if any, be obtained? The market is most efficient. A true market goes without props and unnecessary subsidies. A true market is one where risk takers actually bear the consequences of those risks. A true market would include a system where the cost of money, interest rates, is also set by a market.’

Comment by Neuromance
2017-05-21 09:06:34

• You need a “Magic Asset” for a mania. An asset which has no credible possibility of going down in price, in perpetuity.

• Speculators and FOMOs and FOBSOs (Fear Of Being Shut Out) move in once an asset starts moving up.

• Then, fraud and government price supports fan the flames of the mania.

There is a mania because there is a Magic Asset.

But, what came first, the Magic Asset+mania (chicken) or fraud+price supports (egg)?

Comment by Neuromance
2017-05-21 09:34:26

Governments ought not to be fanning the flames of speculative bubbles because they are inherently unstable and the longer they go on, the more malinvestment and disruption they cause when they deflate.

However, politicians do love their property taxes. So, it’s a tough call for them.

Comment by palmetto
2017-05-21 13:12:21

“However, politicians do love their property taxes”

Exactly. This issue was addressed somewhat in the NOVA documentary about sinkholes called “Buried Alive”. In Florida, it’s a don’t ask, don’t tell type situation. Local governments will hand out building permits to developers like candy without addressing the issue. The end user, the home buyer, gets stuck with the problems. Counties and municipalities will look the other way, for fear of losing tax revenue.

Apologies for the video quality. PBS wants a buck ninety nine to access it from youtube.

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Comment by oxide
2017-05-22 06:08:15

Transcripts are still free:

I didn’t realize that PBS started charging to view video. Just another reason not to donate to them anymore.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-05-21 17:03:56

Governments ought not will continue to fan the flames of speculative bubbles because it is in the best interest of their campaign contributors. However, politicians do love their property taxes campaign contributions. So, it’s a tough an easy call for them.

There… it just needed a little editing.

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Comment by oxide
2017-05-22 05:40:13

Housing is definitely a magic asset that can cause a mania. Housing is not like, say, cars, where people can survive without buying a new car longer than dealerships can survive not selling a new car. But people need housing every day, in some fashion. So, there is a floor under the demand for housing which is why it is such a target for speculation.

(That said, you can certainly have a mania without a magic asset. Exhibit A was the tulip bulb mania. Tulips are clearly not a magic asset.)

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-22 08:10:59

I thought the tulip was the poster child for magic assets.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-22 09:05:30

I am not quite following. Some housing is a necessity, I really believe that magic assets are something that really is not needed. I find social media stocks are much more a magic asset than is housing. That said they are both in a mania.

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Comment by oxide
2017-05-22 10:31:15

I was going by neuromance’s defintion: “an asset which has no credible possibility of going down in price, in perpetuity.”

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-22 15:08:32

Sorry, I did not know that your comment was not a stand alone comment when I posted.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-22 15:50:50

Shelter is a necessity. One would only buy a house at many multiples of your earnings or at multiples of its replacement cost if it was a magical asset.

There are plenty of alternatives, less magical.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-21 09:08:25

“enabled by…”

Loose lenders and sketchy lawmakers were Enablers. The enablers never cause a mania, they just cultivate it for fun and profit.

Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-05-21 09:10:29

I guess some questions are:

How many people does it take to cause a bubble in any given market/country? Since house prices are set based upon comps, perhaps it’s surprisingly small?

Is loose lending needed, or just a handful of cashed up entities (Wall St. hedge funds, wealthy locals, etc.), to goose prices?

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-21 09:14:26

You need buyers who completely believe what absolutely isn’t true.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-05-21 18:54:40

One born every minute.

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Comment by SW
2017-05-21 09:18:40

Very sane thinking Ben. This is why I continue reading this blog.

Comment by oxide
2017-05-22 05:29:34

Ben, I don’t agree with your comparison of the Lagos et al bubble with the US bubble 2002-2008. The foreign bubbles are almost all rich or margin speculators while the poor still live in shanties. The US bubble was shanty poor at least trying to move up to a real house. How many rice pickers in Vietnam got fog-a-mirror mortgages?

So, saying that Lagos et al had a bubble without MERS and MBS and CDS does *not* mean that the US bubble 2002-2008 wasn’t caused by MERS and MBS and CDS. Different bubbles can have different causes.

(That said, the US bubble post-2012 is more similar to the foreign bubbles.)

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-22 08:37:03

How many years ago did a true market actually exist in the U.S.? I’m thinking it’s been over a century (pre-1913).

Comment by oxide
2017-05-22 14:54:12

But p-bear, doesn’t that give you a good idea of what would really happen if “the government got out of the way” and allowed the true market to take over like it was pre-1913? How did things look for the middle class in 1913? Didn’t they pretty much either live in country shacks, or rent city tenements forever? not too good.

Comment by MWR
2017-05-22 16:47:58

I worked with a guy who was a pretty “big deal” in Countrywide’s MSR valuations. He said not one model factored in the possibility of a nationwide decrease in home values, Hard to lose money if houses only go up. Therefore I would move Countrywide to the top of the Lender’s list. GSEs wee actually strongly encouraging banks to make SISA loans so they belong right there with Countrywide, in my humble opinion!

Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-05-21 08:59:45

“‘In 37 years, this is the strongest seller’s market I’ve seen,’ said Kathy Schroeder, vice president of residential property at Coldwell Banker Jim Stewart Realtors. She said the media coverage has brought in out-of-town investors who are willing to put far more money into older homes than was once thought prudent.”

Are you paying attention, Yellen?

Comment by scdave
2017-05-21 09:10:41

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2017-05-20 19:43:16

The top different in time for different markets… But check the Case-Shiller data: San Diego was first, in Dec 2005; some markets (including mine) lagged ??

Housing had been on its way down for 2-3yrs ??

The question was not when did some housing markets start to soften now was it…The question that was asked was when was the “Bust”…When did the housing market collapse across “all” markets…I stand by what I said…The back of the housing market was broken (Bust) in September 2008…

On Sunday, September 14, it was announced that Lehman Brothers would file for bankruptcy..The United States director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), James B. Lockhart III, on September 7, 2008 announced his decision to place two United States government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Fannie Mae (Federal National Mortgage Association) and Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation), into conservatorship run by FHFA.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-21 09:20:19

The US housing price peaked in 2005. That’s when the train left the rails. Full “bust” hasn’t happened yet. That’s why we are still here examining it.

Comment by GreenEggsAndSpam
2017-05-21 15:47:17

I concur for the most part. In my hood, prices peaked that first quarter of 2004. Greenspan started raising rates that quarter. But Rancho Santa Fe (nice area of San Diego) peaked the previous fall on a price per sq. ft. basis and inventory just kept coming on, going from something like 4-6 months of inventory to several years worth. Then I saw it spread throughout SD. I moved fall of 2006 to a place where the bubble was just peaking and warned people. They thought I was nuts but a year later those that bought were already lamenting the act to me.

This time around I am not sure if there are going to be that many interest rate resets like last time. I think we’ll go into a big cash crunch and people may walk after seeing their homes go down in value so they can get their credit reset for the next go around. Some will, with parental help, struggle to keep the plates spinning.

Comment by Throbert Girth
2017-05-21 17:04:29

Have you seen high-end inventory in Rancho Santa Fe lately on Redfin? In fact, look at the availability of homes $2M-$10M…it’s insane.

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Comment by rms
2017-05-21 18:13:07

No shortage of swimming pools… Rancho Santa Fe. Bet the bird’s legs are “welded-shut” when you have to leave there.

Comment by Throbert Girth
2017-05-21 17:09:27

Look on Redfin at luxury San Diego inventory $1M-$10M in price. It’s flooded. Are we at 2004/2005 right now?

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Comment by palmetto
2017-05-21 09:23:38

“Housing demand keeps rising in Amarillo, and the supply isn’t keeping up. Local real estate agents say first-time buyers, retirees seeking medical care and country folk moving into town have crowded the housing market and caused prices to rise, especially in the city’s most expensive neighborhoods.”

I don’t know about Amarillo, but much the same thing is said of the Tampa Bay area, and it’s an outright lie. There are so many foreclosures and pre-foreclosures in some areas, they’ll (the banks) never clear those areas of their crappy product.

What they will do, however, is hold the houses off the market to keep up the lie of “low inventory” and keep the prices high on the crapshacks.

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2017-05-21 10:02:15

Sorry, been a few years that I have driven I-40 and passed through Amarillo. Is there a bunch of good jobs being developed there or something?

Comment by Taxpayers
2017-05-21 13:36:14

Yoy the drillers have added a few rigs

Comment by CashToAsh
2017-05-21 10:01:35

Just found out a neighbor of mine who is a beach boy just bought a house. For those who dont know, a beach boy works a kiosk renting surfboards and giving lessons. Its not a job with a lot of upward mobility, and hes in his early 30s I think. Doubt if he works 40hrs/wk or makes all that much. Wife works full time, but also probably doesnt make much - there are not a lot of well paying jobs in my county. 3 year old daughter. I havent tracked down the stats on the house he bought yet since its probably not in the records yet, but its nearby and would have gone for at least 400K if its old, maybe a little over 500K since there are a couple that were/are for sale for that amount in the area.

Talked to another neighbor who bought the foreclosure next to me end of last year and did all the work getting it livable. I was struggling to remember how long it had been empty - he said 5 years. We talked about what scum the bankers are letting places rot so they didnt have to recognize losses all the while going to government for bailouts - he had worked at one for a while.

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-05-21 10:23:51

absolute insanity…all luxury

More rental units built in LIC than any other neighborhood in the country in past 6 years, report says

plus the 7 train is way over capacity,only 2 tracks to the city and it will take 25 years to build a new tunnel under the east river to manhattan…

Comment by LI LI Land
2017-05-22 09:50:23

I remember when LIC was a sh!thole…
A good friend lives in LIC, sometimes she has to wait for 4 full trains to go by at peak before she can get on. It’s all insanity!!!!

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-21 10:26:46

Shades of 2008 hang over London real estate
Financial Times-May 19, 2017
Valuations and rents for malls and other retail property are already falling as shoppers move online and cut back in the face of declining real wages.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-21 10:35:58

…and another one gone and another one gone, another one bites the dust!

Comment by oxide
2017-05-22 05:51:01

A store formerly known as “Quality seconds.” What does that mean? My guess is that it’s the equivalent of Marshalls or TJ Maxx and not a thrift store.

By the way, American thrift stores are almost not worth going to. Since there is almost no dress code anymore, the new clothing at Wal-Mart is just as cheap and acceptable as the rare quality item at a thrift store. And the thrift stores themselves are full of old Wal-Mart and Target stuff anyway.

Comment by Ethan in Northern VA
2017-05-22 13:16:01

We go there looking for vintage computers and video games, but apparently in the DC area Dell has a organization that works with Goodwill to make sure there are no used computers on the market.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-21 10:27:51

More dissembling by the central bankers. The ECB can’t taper QE-to-Infinity regardless of how high inflation rises, because that would crush the central bankers’ asset bubbles and Ponzi markets. Seeing their retirements and home valuations go up in smoke might finally be the straw that breaks the back of the middle class and enrages them into picking up pitchforks and torches.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-21 10:43:47

Latest update on Home Capital’s liquidity situation. The run on deposits has slowed down, but millions are still being withdrawn every day and isn’t being replaced.

Paying usurious interest rates on financial lifelines so you can go on underwriting subprime mortgages doesn’t strike me as being a sound or viable long-term business model, but then again, it’s different here/now.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by alphonso bedoya
2017-05-21 12:14:25

“In 2015, I did 17 transactions a day…”—-John Reza Parsiani

That’s an impressive amount of empty apartments.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-21 12:42:53

Consumers buying big-ticket items using ultra-easy credit is the Keynesian idea of a booming economy. So what happens when all those “how much a month Harry” types stop paying on their auto loans?

Oh dear….

Any day now Yellen will channel her inner Bernanke and assure us that the subprime auto crisis is contained.

Comment by oxide
2017-05-22 06:00:15

Wow, nice graph of lease penetration by brand. So, if I see 100 Infinitis on the road, I know that 63 of them are leased. If I see 100 Beemers on the road, I know that 58 of them are leased. Makes me feel better about driving my paid-off beater.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by @AltFacts
2017-05-21 18:24:48

Do you ever have the feeling of shooting yourself in the foot?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-21 20:32:08

I do not even know where there is, seems like the restrictions are for more than tier one cities now.

Comment by palmetto
2017-05-22 05:04:48

Speaking of the Chinese, word of the day: Baizuo!

This is how the Chinese tag sjws and the like. Baizuo!

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-22 07:53:11

Very interesting.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-22 03:23:40

Greece really, really intends to mend its profligate financial ways, just as soon as they pocket the next ECB bailout and have their unpayable debts written down.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-22 07:57:26

Greece has the same old decision to make, belong to an EU and EURO zone where its currency is so overvalued it cannot compete or leave and lose the subsidies. Germany is the big winner due to the Euro being held down by countries such Greece. Can you imagine how strong the German mark would be with the German trade surplus?

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-22 03:28:38

“Housing demand keeps rising in Amarillo, and the supply isn’t keeping up. Local real estate agents say first-time buyers, retirees seeking medical care and country folk moving into town have crowded the housing market and caused prices to rise, especially in the city’s most expensive neighborhoods. A similar imbalance persists in cities across the country.”

She’s gonna blow!

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-05-22 10:08:19

It’s amazing that there are so many first time buyers and retirees seeking medical care and country folk moving into the city suddenly coming out of the woodwork everywhere in the nation at the same time.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-05-22 05:02:01

“Tremendous Velocity That Is Not Normal In Any Market”

Yeah? Where here’s another type of velocity that isn’t quite normal:

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-22 06:13:57

He should have just engaged in real estate fraud there does not seem to be a penalty for that:

Comment by palmetto
2017-05-22 06:29:11

“Texas Democrat Senator Carlos Uresti”

I’m shocked, I tell you, SHOCKED!

Comment by Young Deezy
2017-05-22 07:48:16

Ah yes, the Amish propensity for fraud and dishonesty again, I see.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-22 08:09:50

The snares of debt lead many a well intentioned man down dark roads.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-22 08:29:15

Yes, if you read his website he and his children actually have many things to be proud of but greed or debt actually have destroyed what he accomplished.

I did find this amusing on the website, there is a real estate angle to this:

Balancing career and family life is important to Senator Uresti. His wife, Lleanna, is a former school counselor and now the full-time Realtor and mother of two children, Sebastian and Katalina.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-22 08:53:04

A generous donation to the Clinton Foundation might’ve fixed this under Obama. Now, not so much.

Comment by palmetto
2017-05-22 09:37:41

I was more referring to the “Democrat” side of things, although who can forget the Republican Tom DeLay?

Truth is, democrat, republican, what does it matter? The banksters hate it when politicians try to cut in on their action.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-22 06:55:01

Rein in the banks? Let the market work?

How do MSM stenographers write this drek with a straight face?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-22 07:17:11

Where would vulture funds like Blackstone be without the Fed’s “No Billionaire Left Behind” monetary policies and free trillions in printing-press “stimulus” lavished on its favored oligarch cohorts to snap up the pauperized proles distressed assets?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-22 08:12:08

A cautionary tale for every corrupt, Democrat-maladministered state, territory, and municipality.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-22 08:41:03

“The difference between nine potential buyers or 10 turning up at your open home isn’t much at all. But one buyer instead of two makes a huge difference to the price you can command. No buyers, compared to one, and it doesn’t take long for the panic to set in.”

Simple solution:


Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-22 09:09:04

It is not so simple to the ones that owe more than the house is worth due to the fact that he or she either overpaid for the house or took out home equity loans. She is then in a trap of her own making.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-22 08:58:50

The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is slave to the lender.

Proverbs 22:7

Comment by James Joyce
2017-05-22 09:23:17

My church has an orphanage in Nairobi, Kenya in a slum area. What is fascinating is how you have million dollar homes in Nairobi surrounded by 18 foot high walls topped with glass and directly outside live the incredibly poor. I’ve heard that India is the same. You will find starving beggars on the streets of the richest neighborhoods. American homeless hang out in Santa Monica, San Diego, and Hawaii. The poor and the rich will always be uncomfortable neighbors. Since many rich are vampires, maybe they can’t exist without a huge poor class propping them up.

Comment by cactus
2017-05-22 09:49:22

Since many rich are vampires, maybe they can’t exist without a huge poor class propping them up.”

The Rich tax the working middle class and pass it on to the very poor to keep them away , and take their cut while they are at it.

Works until it doesn’t

Comment by Ant Naples
2017-05-22 10:27:45

When is the next housing crash? Will prices fall to 2011-12 levels?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-22 13:13:35

Does anyone in here look like the Prophet Elijah? How the hell do we know when the bubble is going to implode.

Our general MO around here, newbie, is at least try to start off with somewhat answerable questions.

Comment by Ant Naples
2017-05-25 16:40:21

The only thing I know, is that I know nothing.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-22 10:37:43

I find the housing start graph the most interesting obviously not a supply problem:

Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by taxpayer
2017-05-22 11:31:20

anyone have an opinion on the AG market?
looks like a mild recovery to me

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-22 12:59:55

anyone have an opinion on the AG market?

Buy Sessions, short Eric Holder. Actually, the crops look good throughout the world so cannot see a lot of upside, but prices are so low it is hard to see much more downside.

Comment by rms
2017-05-22 18:01:47

“Buy Sessions, short Eric Holder.”

Eric Holder and each one of his benefactors should be rounded-up in the night and held off-shore by the military until the government can assemble a non-Washington D.C. legal team to prosecute these criminals for inhibiting financial crime investigations.

Comment by taxpayer
2017-05-22 11:42:30

I imagine these little cities w lots of land have tax authorities making new lot construction very expensive-grabbing while they can

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-22 13:29:10

It’s a good thing our central bank money-printers and middle class taxpayers and voters will always have the backs of our reckless and greedy financial services industry.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-22 14:03:37

The MSM “financial experts” seem to be going all-out to herd the last of the retail investor bagholders into the rigged casino at the peak of the Ponzi, so Da Boyz can cash out & exit the pump & dump.

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