May 25, 2017

Vulnerable To Financial Ruins In A Minor Correction

A report from Bloomberg on Canada. “Toronto’s hot housing market has entered a new phase: jittery. After a double whammy of government intervention and the near-collapse of Home Capital Group Inc., sellers are rushing to list their homes to avoid missing out on the recent price gains. The new dynamic has buyers rethinking purchases and sellers asking why they aren’t attracting the bidding wars their neighbors saw just a few weeks ago in Canada’s largest city.”

“‘We are seeing people who paid those crazy prices over the last few months walking away from their deposits,’ said Carissa Turnbull, a Royal LePage broker in the Toronto suburb of Oakville, who didn’t get a single visitor to an open house on the weekend. ‘They don’t want to close anymore.’”

The Globe and Mail. “Have you heard the one about how supply is going to solve the great Canadian housing crisis? If you’ve listened to the real estate industry or our political leaders, you likely have. Just build more condo towers and presto, problem solved. Well, they’re building them in Metro Vancouver and Greater Toronto – lots of them. Here is the other brutal reality about the great supply argument: vast swaths of these units are being built and presold to foreign purchasers. These buyers, in turn, are either flipping the properties for a profit before they are even finished or hanging on to them as safe investments and renting them out.”

“No, the great supply argument is a myth, a dodge. It is not solving anything.”

The Drayton Valley Western Review. “If you are looking at putting your house up in the market, take into consideration these tips provided by local realtors Tammie Sharpe and Lorinda Gustafson. According to them, it is important to ask for a realtor’s advice as to what needs to be improved in a home before putting it out in the market. If a seller decides to make home renovations, Sharpe advised to do it right the first time and get a professional to do the work.”

“‘Most buyers will get an inspector to come in and inspect the house and if you have done a whole lot of work but not properly, the inspectors are going to find it so the buyers are going to know and they will either back away from making an offer or they are going to drop their price especially now that it is a buyers market and there are a lot of houses for buyers to choose from,’ she said.”

From Better Dwellings. “Vancouver real estate may be showing signs of exhaustion. According to the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Ministry of Finance (MoF), the quality of mortgages are showing increasing signs of quality deterioration. Over the past year this trend has accelerated, leaving more homeowners vulnerable to financial ruins in the event of a minor correction.”

“A high-ratio mortgage is one where less than 20% is placed as a down payment, and the owner has as little as 5% equity in the home. Chances of these mortgages going underwater (i.e. the owner ending up with negative equity in the home) are already pretty high. The BoC and the MoF data shows that the quality of high-ratio loans in Vancouver is quickly deteriorating. The fiscal year ending in 3Q of 2016 saw high-ratio mortgages with an average LTI higher than 350%, in more than 75% of postal codes in Vancouver. This is an 11% increase from the period prior.”

“These subprime loans are actually getting worse in Vancouver. 36% of postal codes saw the average loan-to-income ratio increase from the year prior. V5X, known to humans as South Vancouver, saw the largest increase. The ratio jumped from insignificant numbers, to an average high-ratio loan-to-income of over 450% – the highest measure the BoC gives.”

“The BoC’s concerns are not just limited to Vancouver, they previously noted that Canadians across the country are increasingly stretching themselves thin to pursue homeownership.”

From The Province. “The Fraser Valley Real Estate board (FVREB) has warned managing brokers that offshore investors have apparently been asking realtors to complete illegal transactions that would break money-laundering and tax-evasion laws. A May 18 memo titled ‘Important notice’ was sent out to hundreds of broker-managers who were told to distribute it to realtor employees.”

“‘It has come to our attention that overseas clients may be asking realtors to allow money to be transferred to their personal accounts, so that the realtors can arrange a bank draft to give to the sellers/developers for their purchase,’ the May 18 notice states. ‘It’s important everyone understands that this violates federal income-tax laws, Fintrac laws and the Real Estate Services Act.’”

“In an interview, board president Gopal Sahota said his board isn’t aware of specific cases where realtors have completed such transactions, but the board acted on information gathered by its members. ‘It is a strongly worded notice,’ Sahota said. ‘We want our members to know lots of laws could be broken. Money has to be legitimate or you have the money-laundering and illegal aspects coming into (transactions) … You can’t be handling suitcases of cash.’”




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93 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-25 16:00:34

‘Just build more condo towers and presto, problem solved. Well, they’re building them in Metro Vancouver and Greater Toronto – lots of them’

Yeah, we’ve got a few of those supply people here. I’ve never understood it: so many are putting 5% down, but let’s overbuild and crash the market! Wouldn’t it be a lot better to cool things down before you get into this situation? From the end of the last link:

‘Peters pointed to general rules that say the council has seen cases where “licensees have deposited cash deposits into their own personal accounts, then transferred these funds into their brokerage’s trust account or had a bank draft payable to the brokerage drawn on these funds … this is not an acceptable practice.”

‘Sales in the Fraser Valley last month were the highest in 10 months, according to board statistics, with the benchmark price for detached homes up 14.5 per cent in April from a year ago to $776,500, while the numbers had risen 26.2 per cent to $353,300 for town homes and up 29.8 per cent to $219,900 for apartments.’

 
Comment by azdude
2017-05-25 16:06:05

The FED will make sure risk assets dont deflate too much before they jump in and call a timeout.

Comment by acutehemroid
2017-05-25 20:41:29

I don’t know. It seems that the FED lets the Financial Sector over invest (AKA gamble) in financial instruments that WILL crash. Last time it was dark markets in OTCDs. It was my understanding that there were some $570 trillion worth of these lil’ critters running about. Anyway, once the fun is over, the FED will come to the rescue of these Heroes of Capitalism. ‘Cause we can’t do without HoCs to help run the world.

Funny, I don’t recall voting for any of this. No one ever said to me:
Vote Yes for Financial Bubble Playland Approval.
Vote No for Financial Bubble Playland Approval.

Oh, wait…

Wonder what the new and improved OTCDs are being called this time?
Regards,
Roidy

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-05-26 05:01:37

“Funny, I don’t recall voting for any of this.”

If you participate in the fun then you are voting for it.

If you do not participate in the fun, no matter; you still get to pay for it.

Comment by acutehemroid
2017-05-26 09:35:06

I don’t know. I don’t remeber having any fun. That means I still get to pay?

I guess protestations of fairness and level-playing field are not allowed when I’m having all of this fun.

Regards,
Roidy

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Comment by new attitude
2017-05-25 16:06:30

Canada crash is so obvious, I just can figure out how to short it late like this.

Summer of Love.

Comment by butters
2017-05-25 16:21:48

Next coming to your hometown.

Enjoy.

Comment by new attitude
2017-05-25 16:32:52

my fingers are crossed.

I missed the bull market for stocks… powder is dry

 
 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-05-26 07:08:00

short ewc , or bank of canadahhh /montreal etc………….

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-05-25 16:22:30

No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here.

Women hold nearly two-thirds of America’s student loan debt:

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_59259721e4b0650cc020cc61?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009

Millennial beta schlubs, go put a ring on that :(

Comment by butters
2017-05-25 16:33:05

Nothing says womyn empowerment like student debt.

This can be cured by issuing more debts.

Amerikka, what a fukushima!

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 12:37:39

Nothing says womyn empowerment like student debt.

They can blame the male power structure when the gender’s studies does not get them a well paying job.

 
 
Comment by rms
2017-05-25 18:33:48

“But women also tend to take on larger loans to finance that education.”

Ignorance can be overcome by education, but arrogance is more difficult to combat. When combined, arrogant ignorance is virtually impossible to defeat.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-05-26 04:36:01

“When combined, arrogant ignorance is virtually impossible to defeat.”

Ah, but so easy to exploit. Offer the arrogant ignorant a dotted line and - presto! - money magically appears in your coffers each and every month for … for years. Decades even.

Life can be good.

 
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-05-26 06:59:12

“Ignorance can be overcome by education, but arrogance is more difficult to combat.

One heapin’ helping of Humble Pie, preferably served in a very public manner, should cure that.

 
 
 
Comment by Can Bubble
2017-05-25 16:29:34

I know a broker in Toronto who started listing his properties on Facebook over the last few weeks to drum up interest in his showings. This would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.

I know another divorced Realtor who hasn’t made a sale in nine months and is borrowing off shady high interest third parties to pay his rent. Overseas buyers are taking all the sales and even though he knows three languages, none of them is Mandarin, so he’s looking for new career opportunities.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-05-26 04:58:14

“I know another divorced Realtor who hasn’t made a sale in nine months and is borrowing off shady high interest third parties to pay his rent.”

Clone him.

 
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-05-26 07:01:17

Has anyone copyrighted the term “Rentin’ Realtor” yet?

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-25 16:30:31

Miracles built on debt are like a house built on sinking sand.

“Sooner or later, the government is going to have to bail out local governments and state-owned enterprises, and recapitalize the banks. The only question is how expensive repairing the financial sector will be for taxpayers once Chinese leaders realize the game is up. Looking at past banking crises…the cost would reach some $3.5 trillion.”

That might be optimistic given that such a large portion of debt is off the books.

“the debt pile that’s exploded since the global financial crisis.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-25/for-china-now-the-only-question-is-the-size-of-the-bill

And for Mr. Crow:

“There will be those who dismiss all this as a fantasy conjured by anti-China bias or an inability to grasp the wonders of the Chinese economic system.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-05-26 04:46:34

“Sooner or later, the government is going to have to bail out local governments and state-owned enterprises, and recapitalize the banks.”

“… recapitalize the banks.”

(snort)

The only question is how expensive repairing the financial sector will be for taxpayers …)

Expensive for taxpayers. Bahahahahahahaha. Suckers.

“… once Chinese leaders realize the game is up. Looking at past banking crises…the cost would reach some $3.5 trillion.”

A cost of $3.5 trillion and not a cent coming out of the banker’s profits that have been extracted over the boom years. And after this “crisis” is over all of it will again be restarted just as the last crisis was restarted. An on an on it will go because there is no learning curve.

Truly, a nation of dummies.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 07:08:28

Lets assume that the bill is $3.5 trillion. When you consider the size of China’s present government debt that is only going to raise it to around 45% of the GDP which is still less than 1/2 the debt in the United States that is what so many people have the inability to grasp. Meanwhile those in Silicon Valley like Apple think they can get away with $1000 cell phones when China is creating almost as capable phone at 1/3 the price:

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/business/it/Huaweis-new-phone-for-the-young/shdaily.shtml

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-26 07:44:33

“that is only going to raise it to around 45% of the GDP…”

FT reports the national debt of China as of a year ago:

“China’s total debt rose to a record 237 per cent of gross domestic product in the first quarter, far above emerging-market counterparts, raising the risk of a financial crisis or a prolonged slowdown in growth, economists warn.”

Probably a bunch of people over there that just don’t recognize the awesomeness of the Chinese economic system.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 07:52:48

Once again you do not post the link. If you did everyone could see you are essentially lying because you are making an apples to oranges comparison. That is total debt and if you look at the US it would be just about the same. the problem for the US our debt is far less to be back by assets of corporations and far more to be consumer debt and government debt where the money is spent with nothing backing the debt

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Comment by scdave
2017-05-26 08:31:01

everyone could see you are essentially lying ??

And this is something new ??

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-26 08:52:44

I told you how to find it. Anyway here is the link:

https://www.ft.com/content/acd3f2fc-084a-11e6-876d-b823056b209b

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 08:58:33

True and here is probably the most reliable measure of debt and risk external debt

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-26 09:09:04

I think that what you are missing Dan is the essence of the Chinese communist system. The debt of the central government is layered like a pyramid. The debts are nevertheless debts of the central government. You can look at the tippy top number or you can look at the elephant.

Just as an example:

“SOE debt stands at 115% of GDP”

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40029092

It is an alarming mountain of debt and it has piled up very quickly and very recently. Calling me a liar for pointing this out is interesting.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 09:25:33

I have accounted for all debt unlike you who wants to compare apples to oranges. if you include all debt private and public China’s debt as a percentage of GDP is just slightly above the US however, unlike the US there is very little external debt, the Chinese owe it to themselves. Finally, the SOE debt has at least some assets behind it, most of those SOEs can be very profitable with the type of haircut our debtors in businesses get with bankruptcy. We are the country that has most of the consumer and government debt local and federal. They have higher business debt and I said above at least that debt comes with assets. Even if you raze the factory the land is quite valuable in China.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 09:40:45

And once again if anything the Chinese government if anything is understating the wealth of the country:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-23/chinese-shoppers-are-flush-with-hidden-income-and-ready-to-spend

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-05-26 09:49:38

They have higher business debt and I said above at least that debt comes with assets. Even if you raze the factory the land is quite valuable in China.

I understand what you are saying about at least the debt is backed by assets. However the idea that those assets are very valuable reminds me of how overvalued Japan’s real estate was in 1989ish? I’m not confident the land is actually worth that much when their bubble pops. But perhaps in their system the land can be centrally declared to be of a certain worth if necessary.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 10:38:13

Valid point however tell me this, Japan had China as a competitor after it fell, which country in the world is ten times China’s size and has wages probably one percent of its wages? That is what Japan weathered after its housing fell. Ten cent competition for $10 wages.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 07:16:00

Even using the straight conversion of China’s economy from yuan to dollars instead of the more accurate PPP conversion the CIA uses, China’s economy is almost 60% as large as the US. Its government debt is 10% of the US. China can easily put the $3.5 trillion on its balance sheet and that is what the Moody’s report was saying. Of course, that deserved a slight downgrade in credit since you are more than doubling the percentage of debt but Moody’s was still projecting 5% plus growth not a collapse of the Chinese economy. If you wait for China to collapse before buying a house, you will probably die a renter.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-26 08:14:49

http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/china

Read the caption and figure $27Trillion.

One or both of these stories is completely wrong.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 08:29:32

The one I am using is consistent with Moody’s and the Economist Magazine I do not know where you found that fake news site. However your math is very wrong even if it was right.

 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-26 08:08:25

Well, you’re wrong about that Dan. I figured out how to buy a house outside the bubble quite a while ago. I’m just watching from the bleachers with popcorn.

I’m not sure you can use the word “accurate” and the CIA in the same sentence. Did you already forget how I proved to you that the CIA grossly misrepresents the China average wage?

Every time you pull that PeePeePee thing I just shake my head. You might as well just say that “they are so poor, they are all together actually wealthy”.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 08:41:17

You did not prove anything. You only demonstrated ignorance Quite frankly you are like Obama who changed the definition of deportation and then said he was deporting more people. Reliable information

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-26 09:12:56

I gave you the links Dan. Direct to the Chinese data release and showed how the CIA misrepresented it. Urban wage is not national average wage. I did not make this up. I think you just put your fingers in your ears and yell “La,la,la…”

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 09:31:57

You used old data and the CIA did not represent they just accounted for the undervaluing of the Yuan. If you make a $1000 a month but your rent is $100 a month, you are far better off than if you make $2000 a month and have a rent of $2000. When I dug into your data the incredibly low cost of living was exposed and you clearly were not using PPP like the CIA, the CIA was not wrong, And if you use data that is five years old and your data appeared to be, you have missed about 50% income increases in China. No you are not smarter than the CIA with a stable of Ivy league economists. The more you post about the subject and oil, the more I wonder if you are smarter than a fifth grader.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 09:34:19

You did not prove that the old data you showed was just urban income you just claimed it was only including urban without any support.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-26 10:10:09

Old data? Wrong Dan. I used the official China Statistical Yearbook 2016. Data is for year 2015. The Yearbook 2017 isn’t published yet I think. Somehow you morph this into five year old information and call me a 5th grader.

http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2016/html/0616EN.jpg

The careless mistake the CIA drones made is to take the Urban average income and call it national average income. No PPP BS about it. As the link shows, rural income is about 1/3 of Urban income. I can’t make it any more simple that that for you and I don’t believe you can spin your way around it.

Urban housing is 14 x income Dan. You cannot contort that into incredible low cost of living.
.
Here’s your crow.

Got any other sophomoric insults for me?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 10:47:53

What you are showing now does not include the cost of living figures that were included before. The footnote also demonstrates that these numbers are a blend of both the urban and the much lower rural figures. The country wide expenses are far lower than the most expensive cities. Finally, the numbers you are now showing are still two years old when incomes are still rising rapidly and do not do the PPP adjustments that the CIA does. There is nothing sophomoric about my comments, you are either purposely trying to deceive by comparing apples to oranges or you do not understand the basic logic of PPP adjustments.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-26 11:06:05

Right, I did not repost all the links I posted before. Just this one to keep it simple.

Rural and urban included, listed separately, not “blended”.

The CIA takes these Urban numbers directly from the Yearbook and in error calls it national average income. Ironically, you are making the exact same mistake over and over. It is that simple. Parity massaging has nothing to do with it.

You were also very wrong saying the data is 5 years old. It is the latest data reported by the CCP. 2015 data as reported in 2016.

Here’s your crow.

And yeah, calling someone a 5th grader is about as sophomoric as can be.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 11:44:00

No you still have not shown any evidence that the CIA is taking any numbers from the yearbook and just repeating them what they are doing and they are very clear about it is they are applying the PPP. I never said anything about you until you started with the personal attacks and I am not going to get into a pis*sing contest argument on when a personal attack is sophomoric. I disagree with plenty on this board without it being personal but like Trump if you hit me I will hit back.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 12:13:53
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 12:19:50

And I would add what you are showing for Urban is per capita disposable. Which is not the income of these people, it is their income divided by the number of people they are supporting and after taxes and then you want to compare that to what people make on the job here without adjusting for taxes and dependents. As far as I am concerned it is just more deception. You just love comparing apples to oranges.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-26 13:31:38

Right it is per capita. I misspoke. The point that I was making is that the number you gave for income when this conversation started a long time ago is for Urban, not National average. I no longer actually remember where you got the number from!

I have made no reference to “what people make on the job here”. I think that you introduce so much distracting BS that such conversations are like dropping down a rabbit hole.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by palmetto
2017-05-25 17:08:45

Anybody want to place some bets on when Washington implodes? Holeeee Jeebus, that’s some really ugly stuff right there. This Seth Rich/Awan Brothers thing sure has sent the media and the politicians into autistic screeching overdrive. Not to mention the fascist American corporations.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz, John Podesta, Jen Palmieri et al, sucks to be you!

Something tells me Comey postponed his dog and pony show in front of the Intel Committee to make a deal on the attempt to cover this all up with the bogus Russiagate. If not him, someone’s looking for immunity right now. Someone’s gonna turn on the rest of them.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-05-25 17:42:22

This Seth Rich/Awan Brothers thing sure has sent the media and the politicians into autistic screeching overdrive.

Seth Rich’s family appear to be very upset as well. It’s unclear what autism has to do with that? Is Hannity still ranting about him?

Comment by palmetto
2017-05-25 18:21:50

“Seth Rich’s family appear to be very upset as well.”

“Please don’t investigate our son’s unsolved murder” said no concerned parent, ever.

Comment by phony scandals
2017-05-25 21:20:14

With the MSM gang up on this you know there is some there there.

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Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-05-26 00:05:43

autistic screeching

4chan/pol speak. Many “anons” describe themselves as “autists”. Probably the least offensive term used on that site.

 
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-05-26 05:47:29

This narrative sponsored by David Brock.

Comment by palmetto
2017-05-26 06:17:00

Heh, I’ve wondered from time to time if Mikey might not be mixed up with one of the Brock organizations.

http://therightscoop.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/david-brock.jpg

How’s that for cold chills up the spine? Even in the Podesta emails, one of the participants (either Neera Tanden or Jen Palmieri) cautioned that Brock is batsh*t crazy. In so many words, as I recall.

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Comment by Apartment 401
2017-05-26 07:34:27

Possibly, yes.

Certainly a Southern Poverty Law Center koolaid drinker, whether he’s getting paid to post or not.

 
Comment by palmetto
2017-05-26 07:44:35

Everybody wants to rule the world. sarc/

 
 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-25 17:42:28

I feel the fake Russia thing was a distraction from several more close to home issues. The Clinton on/off/on/off thing perhaps.

Comment by palmetto
2017-05-25 18:27:37

Yep. It was cooked up by Nosehair Podesta and little Robbie Mook within 24 hours of Screech’’s concession speech. Had she won, no need for the cover up.

Waiting to see who commits suicide via two gunshots to the back of the head.

Some blogger predicted Comey wouldn’t testify and sure enuf, he’s “postponed” his appearance in order to have a little confab with Mueller. It did make me wonder if he’s possibly trying to cut a deal.

Comment by junior_kai
2017-05-25 20:28:33

Youre probably right - he knows how the game is played. He reminds me of hoover, without the womens clothing - although you never know, lol. Memos, yeah that was another lie in the never ending stream of lies the media tries to feed this country on a daily basis.

The Seth Rich story was a mess from day 1. Shot to death in the back, nothing taken but ruled a robbery? Oooookay. Interesting how the police body cams are “not available to the public” by decree of the mayor or some such. Say what?

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Comment by palmetto
2017-05-26 06:11:37

What’s interesting to me is that it would appear that we’re watching the slow motion collapse of various establishment institutions. The MSM, for example. Their positions are being usurped by citizen journalists doing the jobs the members of the MSM won’t do. Some of these folks deserve Pulitzers far more than the seat warmers who sit in an office making up bullchips to fling out to the masses.

My favorite is George Webb, who has demonstrated that there is no substitute for analysis and wearing out some shoe leather. He is factually doing double duty: doing the job of the FBI AND the media. And he is doing this alongside his regular work that pays the rent. So who needs the MSM and FBI when you’ve got people like George Webb doing those jobs for a whole lot less money?

Speaking of which, there’s another area that’s collapsing: the “intelligence” community. They’re becoming recognized as nothing more than a domestic disturbance apparatus, built on lies, entrapment and engineered unrest. And with the recent report out of China regarding the CIA spies that have been executed, they’ve been revealed as total incompetent nincompoops. The Emperor has no clothes, indeed.

And last but not least, Zero Hedge has this little gem:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-25/new-financial-system-being-born

A new financial system is being born, replacing the old and dying one.

So it’s sort of interesting to see these institutions collapsing,but even as they collapse, their places are being taken by more effective ideas, people and institutions. We may yet survive these various collapses, since it seems there are parallel constructs ready to replace the rotten timbers.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 12:40:22

Waiting to see who commits suicide via two gunshots to the back of the head.

And moves his or her body after he or she is dead.

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Comment by palmetto
2017-05-25 17:23:26

‘They don’t want to close anymore.’”

Heh. They’re closing right and left here in the Tampa Bay area. At least they are up in the northern part of the area. FB paradise!

Comment by Jingle Male
2017-05-26 01:28:30

The market in the Sacramento Valley is quite strong. The biggest problem is low inventory. Everything is selling within a couple of weeks many with multiple offers.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-05-26 04:56:00

“Everything is selling within a couple of weeks many with multiple offers.”

Paid for with promises.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-26 05:05:14

That’s nothing, shacks in Toronto would sell in an hour - less than two months ago! Prices were up 30% YOY after years of incredible increases. I recently posted an article describing how 15,000 people there paid $150 Canadian pesos to listen to people tell them to buy shacks.

Strong? You think that’s strong? Ask these sad sacks who are walking away from deposits how strong it is. It won’t be long before they are dragging little old ladies speculators out to the curb and FB’s will pour cement down the toilet.

BTW, note that it took just the tiniest tweak to lending and - SURPRISE! - no shack shortage in Toronto, quite the opposite. In just a couple of weeks really.

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-05-26 05:13:11

“Prices were up 30% YOY after years of incredible increases.”

That was the attraction. When prices level out or (gasp) when prices drop then the attraction vanishes.

Poof.

 
Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-05-26 07:10:08

@Ben Jones - Ben, when you were doing asset management of foreclosed properties, how often did you encounter cement down the toilet?

I imagine you have many stories of FB’s vandalizing the premises prior to leaving.

 
 
 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2017-05-26 11:14:09

The Tampa Bay Times has a weekly, and sometimes even a daily, article pimping the awesomeness of the local housing market. Every now and then an off-key note of concern can be heard in the amen chorus, like this:

“More than 75,000 times, viewers in China have clicked on the website of a company touting investment opportunities overseas. And one of the best places Chinese citizens can put their money, the company says, is St. Petersburg, Florida.

Beijing-based Meiaoju lauds St. Petersburg as “A Gourmet Paradise by the Sea” — several Beach Drive restaurants are prominently featured — and calls it a seller’s market where multiple buyers compete for available homes.

It’s combination that makes St. Petersburg one of the world’s “golden areas… for high profits” in real estate, Maiejou tells prospective investors.

But the pitch from the Far East is clashing with the reality on the ground here.

Angry neighbors say that Meiaoju’s backers, who own dozens of houses in Historic Kenwood, Shore Acres and other parts of St. Petersburg, are using some of the homes as illegal short-tem rentals. Code enforcement authorities have started cases on several properties and cited others for overgrown yards or unsecured entries.”

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/realestate/chinese-investors-call-st-petersburg-a-gourmet-paradise-but-some-of-their/2322852

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-25 17:57:16

Poor Londoners living in squalid overcrowded sublets is the new normal.

Heckova job, Carney and fellow central bankers.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/may/25/london-property-squeeze-affordable-housing

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-05-25 19:14:49

Maybe the rich there will have to go old school and put a row of 5 x 10 rooms in the attic for the “help”. That would cut down on commuting time anyway.

I lived in such accommodations for a while in my youth working as wait-staff, though it was in the basement of a Maine Hotel. Room & Board included! $27.50 a week and all the leftovers one could eat. One day a week off, most weeks.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-05-26 02:51:42

From what I’ve seen so far during my brief visit here in London, unless you are very upper middle class or higher, you’re living in squalor. Not Oliver Twist squalor, but in squalor.

 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-05-26 06:05:28

look at ppp comparisons for EU=pu
that free hc is very expensive
I know UK and Canadah systems reek

any comments on germany or france HC ?

 
 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
Comment by taxpayer
2017-05-26 06:57:29

so why is coastal /beach RE going up ?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 12:49:44

Any why did Obama buy ocean front property in Hawaii?

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-25 21:48:30

How do these Canadian FBs sleep at night?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/manulife-housing-debt-1.4127243

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-05-26 04:53:50

Canada: Another nation of dummies.

 
 
Comment by azdude
2017-05-26 04:37:17

have any of you seen the big short movie?

I feel like christain bale right now when no one believed a word he was saying.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-05-26 06:19:05

This has nothing to do with the flooding but Newport Beach is the home of The Wedge.

Here …

https://www.google.com/search?q=the+wedge&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwi6sdjH0o3UAhVI74MKHSS0D_IQ_AUICCgD&biw=1360&bih=651

Comment by scdave
2017-05-26 08:58:15

Newport Beach is the home of The Wedge ??

Body surfed it many times…Many a person has been severely hurt at the Wedge…

 
 
 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-05-26 06:03:41

bby up big
they still just a retail showroom for amazon
any good news and stock rally bigly

there appear to be pocket listings in my hood. They never make it onto the mls/zillow etc.

 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-05-26 06:27:59

Dumb question of the day:

Why is price fixing illegal if you sell tuna fish, but legal if you sell oil or houses?

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-05-26 07:14:27

It’s really quite simple, Professor:

Oil and House sales organizations invest in lobbyists to bribe gain access to members of Congress.

Tuna sellers don’t make that investment.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-05-26 07:00:32

Did you notice that’s the first article in the post above?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-05-26 08:38:13

Try to keep up, ABQ Dan. Don’t get distracted by that monotonous crow diet.

 
 
 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-05-26 06:59:23

car shoppers -hand in this weekend is buy the college grad a used car and mid june is buy the hs grad a car. Where I live that’s the 9-11k zone.
The big dive should be july.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by scdave
2017-05-26 09:10:40

That was interesting…Nice post Adan…

 
 
Comment by Malcolm
2017-05-26 10:38:01

All investors fall into somewhere on the following scale:

Greed
Hope
Doubt
Fear

This is true for homes, stocks, gold, any any other investment.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2017-05-26 12:42:50

Pay day is right between hope and doubt.

 
 
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