Fears That Buyers Would Simply Cut Their Losses
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “The number of construction cranes across Iceland is approaching the number counted in 2007, just prior to the banking collapse. It is likely, however, that the number of cranes will increase in the future, surpassing the 2007 numbers. Economists agree that there continues to be a shortage of apartments in Iceland. In Iceland, the number of cranes in use has at times been looked at as an indicator of economic strain since the visit of Robert Aliber, professor emeritus of International Economics and Finance at the University of Chicago. During his stay in 2008 just prior to the banking collapse, he tallied the cranes in use and spoke in no uncertain terms about the danger to the economy.”
“Magnús Árni Skúlason, economist at the consulting firm Reykjavík Economics, explains, however, that the number of cranes is not as good an indicator of economic instability as it was before the collapse. ‘In 2007, there was a debt bubble and an oversupply of residential real estate. The situation is different today.’”
“Britain’s housing shortage and continued growth in prices means the property market is showing increasing signs of dysfunction, according to a report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. ‘Perhaps the most ominous signal is that contributors still expect house prices to increase at a faster pace than wages over the medium term despite the difficulty many first-time buyers are clearly having,’ said RICS Chief Economist Simon Rubinsohn. On the shortage, ‘it’s hard to see this as anything other a major obstacle to the efficient functioning of the housing market.’”
“‘Prices are too expensive,’ Josh Homans at surveyors Valunation said in the RICS report. ‘Excessive’ valuations are increasing and ‘we are now in a 2007 situation,’ he said.”
“What a difference a couple of months make. Barrie real estate swung from a sizzling hot seller’s market in February and March to an inventory-rich buyer’s market in late April. Within the city of Barrie, detached residential properties posted an average selling price in May of $566,077 which is an increase of 25 percent over May 2016. But that’s down from April when the average selling price was around $600,000.”
“It seems like an extreme change but that was such an extreme situation- unprecedented for Barrie - we were in early this year, said Rob Alexander, the president of the Barrie and District Association of Realtors. ‘What happened in March and early April was unprecedented and ‘crazy.’ As we got into April we started to see more inventory come along and went into full bloom in May. Whether it’s a matter of a traditional spring market or more people realizing, ‘Hey I should join the party here. Prices are strong maybe it’s a good time to move and put their home on the market,’ explains Alexander.”
“Knight Frank Malaysia associate director of residential sales and leasing Kelvin Yip says it will be a good year for homebuyers to buy for own occupation as they are spoilt for choice. ‘On the secondary market, buyers should look for motivated sellers to get some good deals,’ he says. ‘We have been getting listings in the secondary market where asking prices have been reduced for quick sale. This could be due to the property being in the market for a while. We do not see fire sales yet, but there are more motivated sellers.’”
“Brisbane’s slowing apartment market has spooked the city’s real estate agents, with fears among some in the industry that it was heading for a major fall. An inner-Brisbane real estate agent, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said self-interest dictated that most agents would not publicly discuss the trouble facing the industry. ‘The unit market is flooded with oversupply,’ the source said. ‘The biggest problem is buildings with off-the-plan sales, which were purchased with 10 per cent deposits. These were sold at the peak of the cycle. You had tiny one-bedroom apartments selling for $450,000.’”
“Some of those were now being valued at as little as $320,000, the source said. The Hudson in Albion was considered a canary in the coal mine, the source said. There, apartments were advertised with discounts of up to 39 per cent, prompting a stoush between the developer and a marketer. That led to fears, the source said, that many buyers would simply cut their losses, rather than incur the long-term debt associated with overvalued properties. Lenders would also be unwilling to stump up the cash at settlement, due to their valuations falling well short of the purchase price. ‘They either have to bail on the 10 per cent or borrow elsewhere,’ the agent said.”
“As the Hampton Roads housing market heats up, finding deals on homes to flip is getting harder. ‘In my view, it’s harder to get anything at a good price,” said owner Wade Garnett of York-based Garnett Construction. ‘There’s so many people in the field now. Everybody wants to flip now. We’re seeing prices go up substantially.’”
“Short sales and foreclosures accounted for 13.4 percent of Hampton Roads sales in April, according to REIN.”
“According to the most recent market reports, office leasing volume in Manhattan is down 21 percent year-over-year in May, and the average price of new development condominiums in the borough plunged 15 percent month-over-month. Home prices for condo and co-ops in Manhattan stayed flat between April and May, while the average price of new development condos plunged 15% from $6.7 million to $5.7 million.”
“A prominent developer planning a residential tower for ultrawealthy Houstonians has shelved the project because he doesn’t think there are enough buyers in the market to move forward with construction. ‘At this particular time I do not have complete confidence in the fact the building can be sold out in the next 24 months,’ said Giorgio Borlenghi, who last summer said he would not start construction if he couldn’t sell half of the building’s proposed 46 units.”
“Residential global property has arguably been the most exciting investment of the past eight or nine years, but lately the fun has been draining away. House and apartment prices have been driven sky high by rock bottom interest rates and there are growing signs that they cannot go any higher. The days of double-digit annual house price increases appear to be over. The question now is whether the market is merely slowing, or whether it could go sharply into reverse. Is this a bubble, and if so, could it burst?”
“Nothing lasts forever. London was the world’s No 1 property hotspot, but lately the luxury end of the market has slipped. Craig Plumb, the head of research at global real estate experts JLL Mena, says residential prices in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) have been generally falling for the past two years, but investors shouldn’t panic. Prices have declined by between 5 per cent and 15 per cent since mid 2014, he says, with Dubai leading the way. ‘This is nothing like 2008-09, there is no bubble waiting to burst.’”
“Faisal Durrani, the global head of research at Cluttons, and an expert in the Middle East and Africa property markets, also says global property is slowing while ruling out the prospect of a crash. ‘This is no bubble bursting, just a gentle deflating.’ In Dubai, prices in Burj Khalifa are down more than 20 per cent in the last 12 months, while villa and apartment prices in Palm Jumeirah are also falling, he says. ‘The priciest areas are coming off worse.’ In Abu Dhabi, Mr Durrani says prices in Saadiyat Island are down 25 per cent over the year, with rents down one- third. ‘Demand at the top of the market has dried up as there are now fewer senior level jobs, and residents are losing their living allowances or seeing them cut. Job insecurity is growing and people are downsizing to save money. Demand for luxury rentals has therefore diminished significantly.’”
“Many Middle Eastern investors are now looking farther afield to Toronto as a result, he adds. ‘Canada offers high-quality education and luxury high-end properties. Prices are rising but property is still relatively affordable, starting at US$600 per square foot compared to, say, £5,000 -plus in London’s Mayfair. This is a massive difference and Canada is a welcoming environment for investors from the Gulf.’”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-09/credit-card-defaults-surge-most-financial-crisis
Credit Card Defaults Surge Most Since Financial Crisis
Bail them out!
I love the smell of crow in the morning. Smells like…. victory.
From the last link:
‘Yolande Barnes, who heads the World Research Team at global real estate services provider Savills, says the global real estate market recovery peaked in 2015 and many cities now look fully valued. Yet she remains optimistic, anticipating strong demand in major cities in the Asia Pacific, western Europe and the United States.’
‘However, many European cities now look fully valued and increasing uncertainty around Brexit, Italian banking and Greek debt default has subdued interest. “Activity is down 21 per cent overall, despite pockets of strong city performance, and down 38 per cent in the UK,” says Ms Barnes.’
‘While UK hot spots such as London, Oxford and Cambridge look pricey, cities such as Bristol, Manchester and Glasgow may offer opportunities. “As do lesser known locations such as Canterbury, Bournemouth and Leamington Spa.”
‘In the US, mature city real estate markets such as New York and San Francisco are slowing but there is action elsewhere, Ms Barnes says. “Now it is the turn of the second-tier US cities to shine as economic growth has buoyed new industries in Nashville, Portland, Austin, Philadelphia, Ithaca, Raleigh and Durham.”
‘Strong demand from domestic institutions and overseas investors has sustained US transactions levels, which rose 5 per cent in 2016 to buck the global trend.’
‘Ms Barnes says the bull market in prime real estate is over, especially with the US Federal Reserve looking to nudge up interest rates. “Future investment returns will be driven by rental growth and there is no reason to expect price falls providing rents remain steady.”
“Yet she remains optimistic, anticipating strong demand…”
If easy credit went away Yolande Barnes would be a Chatsworth fluffer.
said he would not start construction if he couldn’t sell half of the building’s proposed 46 units.” ??
Because you can’t get the bank financing if you don’t…
As if there weren’t enough being constructed and/or in the pipeline already! I can see at least five high rises going up in the Inner Loop from my office!
Nothing breaking ground here in backwater NY. We had a flurry of obsolete commercial conversions a few years ago and a bunch of hotels going up last year. Seems to be over.
“prompting a stoush … ”
say WHAT?
sounds like a hearty beer / ale.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/stoush
Residential global property has arguably been the most exciting investment of the past eight or nine years, but lately the fun has been draining away.
If taking those kinds of risks with high multiples of your yearly income is “fun”, there’s probably some danger that’s not immediately apparent.
This caught my eye: “Many Middle Eastern investors are now looking farther afield to Toronto as a result, he adds. ‘Canada offers high-quality education and luxury high-end properties.
I know a college prof who has Middle Easterners in his classes. And guess what. They cheat like mofos. And here is the pattern again. A corrupt culture full of cheaters invades a Western country to take advantage of the relatively honest culture nurtured by years of relatively uncorrupted meritocracy. And of course the suckers let the cheaters get away with it just to be polite.
relatively honest culture nurtured by years of relatively uncorrupted meritocracy
There was something of a meritocracy in the USA half a century ago. Back in those days it was possible for poor children to get into the middle class if they studied and worked hard. Those days are pretty much gone.
Yes, especially when you are competing against said cheaters and others with no moral code who are willing to step on anybody and everybody else in order to get ahead. Because that’s how they roll in the home country.
I see it at my ‘diverse’ workplace every single day.
Are those “cheaters” the 1% and .001% really you’re talking about who vote to cut taxes so your kids can’t get a decent public education and can’t improve their lot in life? I’ll agree with that being cheating!
Not really. That’s high-level cheating. Yes, that’s part of the problem, but I mean cheating on the ground level.
For example, in the United States, if you buy a can of Coke, you are pretty sure that it’s Coco Cola in the can and not bleach. But in India, evidently they have some machine that seals up water bottles, so they can put tap water in the bottles tourists *think* it’s bottled water. That’s cheating. In this country, there are roads. Someone told me in Africa you have to have a pocketful of coins just to drive safely on the roads to get to work, there were so many people blocking your way asking for bribes. Cheating. If you meet an American with a college degree, you’re reasonably sure that they know their stuff. If it’s a Chinese person, you don’t know. They may have emailed their homework to a company in China that did the work for them, and they cheated through the exams. Daily corruption.
Why are those days gone, Mighty Mike? Oh that’s right, maybe because the middle class has been decimated by 30 years of globalism? And who is promising to at least try to counter globalism?
There are a number of reasons. The fact that some workers were exposed to competition with the Third World is only one of them. And at this point, I wouldn’t trust Trump to be able to figure out what to do to address these issues and also be able to convince his fellow GOP House and Senate members to make something happen.
We must embrace our fundamental transformation.
Something has changed in the society here in the US.
I came across this tidbit, regarding a drug company:
The first human trial of ivermectin for river blindness was in Senegal in 1981, in patients who had the early stages of the disease but no damage to their eyes. Together with several more trials, it showed that ivermectin was safe in humans and highly effective at killing the disease vector in its larval state. But Merck had a problem: there was no market for it. Those who needed ivermectin were too poor to buy it. So the firm did something remarkable: it made an open-ended commitment to give away as much of the drug as necessary, starting in 1987, with the ultimate goal of eliminating river blindness entirely. In the following decade it donated 100m doses.
http://www.economist.com/news/international/21721133-donors-and-drug-firms-are-co-operating-defeat-ancient-plagues-global-attack
Can you imagine a drug company doing that today? In the time of 100,000 dollar doses? Martin Shkreli and his more numerous and discreet fellow travelers? Mylan? Epipen? The article says there are some drug companies, organized by various foundations, who do some of this sort of thing - supplying insufficiently profitable drugs - today. But rest assured they’re not taking losses. The foundations are almost certainly compensating them, by aging billionaires trying to save their souls. Good luck getting that camel through the eye of the needle. But the maximal extraction of value from the rest of society has become a science. And there are consequences to that.
• I call it the “War on consumer surplus” - the difference between what a consumer pays and the benefit he gets. Extracting as much as possible in housing, education and medicine has become a science.
• Akerlof talked about another modern invention in his famous “Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy For Profit.” (PDF). Greenspan and his adorable belief that companies would operate in the best interest of society. Instead of the executives really running companies aground and taking once in a lifetime payouts now. Shiller talked about this type of corruption in Phishing for Phools.
• Private equity funds, buying companies, loading them with debt, getting their paydays right now, and then running them aground, and to heck with the company and its value creation and its jobs. Look into the story of the Colt (arms manufacturer) bankruptcy - epic.
• Politicians have completely sold out the public. They thought it was important to limit the term of the president - why? To avoid an imperial presidency. And the corruption that would bring, no matter how effective the president was. Putin anyone? Yet we have Congresscritters and local politicians who make politics a career. And exhibit the same group symptoms of corruption, like the de facto legalization of bribery and gerrymandering.
• Offshoring the manufacturing base? No one thought that might not be a great idea? And then offshoring it and the intellectual property to a strategic competitor, China? Bueller? Bueller? China, Japan and Germany all think manufacturing is fantastic and they cultivate it. But it’s supposed to be beneath America.
• And let’s assume that politicians and central bankers actually think their “stimulus” (aka Expert Redistribution) will really create some lasting economic benefit. This doesn’t need to be corruption necessarily (although there is a revolving door between the central bank and Wall Street), but it is a flawed economic theory (people thought communism was great for a long time, until the last embers extinguished and now it’s just a kook fringe that advocates it). The net result of modern conventional-wisdom economics is merely wealth extraction from the have-nots and directed to the haves - the “Expert Redistribution”. The siren song of central planning. Reverse Robin-hood; privatize the profits, socialize the losses.
Technological progress is the thing which generates wealth. Its march continues. But more and more is extracted from the populace. Politicians know which side they’re on. I was so disappointed with Elizabeth Warren and the student loan issue. She focused on the interest rate of the loan, bringing it down, instead of the root cause which I’m sure she knows about, the firehosing of loan money into students and thus higher education costs as institutions soak up that money, leaving students with the debt. But she knows what side her bread is buttered on - she was a professor with a healthy income as a result of that policy. “It’s hard to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” — Upton Sinclair.
Where’s it leading? The American population is not quite as docile and homogeneous as the Japanese, which is considered the model way to operate a modern economy after a massive wealth extraction event. But who’s going to lead a reformation? The populist billionaire? Probably not. Wealthy Democrat donors? Again, unlikely. Who knows. Probably no one until there’s a modern Martin Luther. Grab your popcorn. To paraphrase and hybridize Strangelove and Batman, “How I learned to stop worrying and love watching the world burn.”
I enjoy your posts more than any other on the blog, Neuromance.
High praise, thanks. Hopefully my observations (hopefully generally accurate) and speculations can provoke thought, leading to a more accurate view of the world.
I enjoy the blog for the articles and the heterogeneity of opinion, real estate bulls and bears, and all manner of the political spectrum.
And one relevant, somewhat sad note: Adam West died today, the original Batman. I say somewhat sad because he was 88 and from what I read, lived a full life. And gave us lasting art. So, bravo, and godspeed to Adam West.
Shiller talked about this type of corruption in Phishing for Phools.
Or a company is worth more dead then alive. we’ve all seen this because the land is far more valuable then the actual business. or companies with massive tax loss carryovers.
We yanks are used to competing against a couple hundred million eager souls whereas with globalism we are now competing against billions.
Do you ever wake up screaming in the middle of the night from a nightmare where your whole country has been turned into a giant reality TV show that airs 24/7?
Don’t worry, it is only a dream.
Russia is at fault
It takes two to “tango.”
Lol you lefties and your “MUH RUSSIA” narrative got blown the f*** out yesterday. Keep going though, it makes Republican victories even easier when Dems have nothing to say beyond blathering about baseless conspiracy theories
Yeah, good call on that. Mr. 2banana is frequently “blathering about baseless conspiracy theories.”
Satire is tough on progressives…
It wasn’t what was said yesterday that is important…Its what was not said…
McCain should have “not said” anything. Dang. Now THERE was a moment.
I’m tellin’ ya, you Arizonans sure have a cruel streak re-electing this guy over and over again. (Yes, I know, Ben, it’s rigged, I wuz just being sarcastic.)
There’s no satire involved.
It’s not rigged, just a product of our system. Why do senators almost never lose? In McCains instance, it’s simple. A Republican will win because that’s what Phoenix is. The Republican will be chosen in the primary, where a fraction of the minority that will vote in the general election, actually votes. So you have party faithful that actually turn out: these people will vote for a familiar name! Most Republicans are afraid of challenging McCain and he has the business interests locked up (cuz he’s been there so long, circular). He always has a war-chest, endorsements from the establishment. End result, a Republican is gonna win, he’s going to be the Republican candidate, thus you can’t get him out, no matter what he says or does.
If we just did away with the primary system this would break down. Who controls that? The parties. What did both parties say last year at one point or another: we pick the candidates, not the voters. Funny how the press never brought that back up.
Well, that’s rigged to my way of thinking. And Trump often commented during his campaign that it was a rigged system.
BTW, in the case of Trump, I think the voters DID pick the candidate, with the party sort of capitulating. However, there’s still Pence, that ghostly presence in the background. The back of Trump’s collar must be soaked from the condensation of Pense’s breath down the back of his neck.
Anyway, back to McCain. Bessball sure been beddy, beddy good to him, but it’s way past time to go.
Term limits would help.
McCain is way beyond help at this point. I almost, I said ALMOST, felt bad for him.
As I wrote to my CONgresscritters today, if these hearings are supposed to be an attempt to de-legitimize the POTUS, they’re a huge fail and in fact serving to de-legitimize CONgress, in a bi-partisan fashion. It’s an embarrassment.
There’s so many actual things they could and should be looking into, such crimes and fraud by financial institutions, the gross incompetence and politicization of the Federal law enforcement and intelligence services, the pay to play of the Clintons and their foundation and perhaps most of all, the horrific war propaganda, phony rigged intelligence and military actions of the Bush Administration. At some point, you just can’t “move on” anymore with these matters hanging over the government.
Satire is tough on progressives
Yep, love all those neo-cone with late night comedy shows.
You have it all wrong.
Today there was a Washington Post article titled something to the effect of “Just what does Trump have to do to lose his base of support?” I slogged through a circle jerk of 150+ progressive comments about lies and p-grabbing and deplorables and hate and racist and eating little girls on the White House lawn.
Not ONCE did I see a comment like “I’ll stop supporting Trump when he opens the borders… doesn’t bring jobs back… puts America second… stops deportations… starts making $600K speeches to Goldman Sachs… stays in NAFTA…sends more jobs overseas…” Nothing about Trump actively reneging on his campaign promises. Not one comment. Do Dems really not know why Trump supporters actually supported Trump?
Right now, Trump supporters don’t see Trump failing to enact his campaign promises, or lying about this policies. They see Trump trying to enact his policies, but being paralyzed by continuous witch hunts. They fully believe that Trump (or at worst, Pence) will resume his promised policies once this is all over and done with. If only if Trump actively goes back on his promises, will he lose his support. Why can’t progressives figure this out?
Apparently that starry eyed gal we knew eight years ago has changed somewhat.
Not ONCE did I see a comment like “I’ll stop supporting Trump when he opens the borders… doesn’t bring jobs back… puts America second… stops deportations… starts making $600K speeches to Goldman Sachs… stays in NAFTA…sends more jobs overseas…” Nothing about Trump actively reneging on his campaign promises. Not one comment. Do Dems really not know why Trump supporters actually supported Trump?
It makes to sense to expect Dems to write ““I’ll stop supporting Trump…” if they never supported him in the first place.
Also, most people who voted for Trump in November vote Republican in every presidential election. In other words, they voted for Romney, McCain, Bush, etc.
Donald Trump’s Election Win: White Democratic Voters Went …
http://www.nationalreview.com/…/donald-trumps-election-win-white-democratic-voters-we...
Nov 21, 2016 - Can the Republican Party Keep Trump Democrats? … The voters Trump picked up do not fit neatly into any of the GOP’s pre-Trump factions. … Few have focused on what this means: Trump — and the Republican party — owe the presidency to millions of whites who have largely voted …
What Percentage of Total Democrats Voted for Trump? - Daily Kos
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…/-What-Percentage-of-Total-Democrats-Voted-for-Trump
Dec 17, 2016 - In this instance, the percentage of total democrats who voted for Trump should be the 1st result in a search, not buried 20 pages back.
Meet the Trump Democrats – Mother Jones
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/forgotten-class-trump-voters-democrats/
Nov 11, 2016 - She came from a staunch Democratic family and had voted for Barack … By this year, many liberals had gotten so fed up with hearing about …
Democrats Who Voted For Donald Trump Speak - Time Magazine
time.com/voices-from-democratic-counties-where-trump-won-big/
Meet the voters who from Democratic counties who voted for Donald Trump. … was that many Clinton supporters simply didn’t know anyone personally voted for …
Reality Check: Who voted for Donald Trump? - BBC News
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37922587
Nov 9, 2016 - What do exit polls tell us about who voted for Mr Trump and who voted for Mrs Clinton? … Much of the narrative ahead of the election had been that Mr Trump … Mr Trump won 58% to Mrs Clinton’s 37%, while the Democratic …
Donald Trump Won Because Democrats Failed To Support Hillary …
https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/donald-trump-won-because-democrats-failed-to...
Nov 10, 2016 - Democrats didn’t lose the 2016 election because of “racist” Trump … Many reasonable people can’t bear to vote for the same candidate as this …
CBS News Exit Polls: How Donald Trump won the U.S. presidency …
http://www.cbsnews.com/…/cbs-news-exit-polls-how-donald-trump-won-the-us-presidency/
Nov 9, 2016 - In contrast, only 84 percent of white Democrats voted for Clinton. … How did Trump win when many of his core positions were so unpopular?
Registered Voters Who Stayed Home Probably Cost Clinton The …
https://fivethirtyeight.com/…/registered-voters-who-stayed-home-probably-cost-clinto...
Jan 5, 2017 - In fact, Donald Trump probably would have lost to Hillary Clinton had Republican- and Democratic-leaning registered voters cast ballots at equal rates. …. Perhaps most important is the group that voted in much larger …
Wisconsin Democrats Who Voted For Trump Reflect On Administration …
http://www.npr.org/2017/02/22/…/will-trump-democrats-in-wisconsin-swing-back-to-their-par...
Feb 22, 2017 - The Garden of Eatin’ diner is in Galesville, Wis., where many Democratic voters decided to vote for Donald Trump during the 2016 election.
Oh for heaven’s sake, use you brain Mike. Okay, I misspoke when I said “I.” How about, the article was supposed to analyze “Trump supporters will stop supporting Trump when…[fill in reneging on jobs policy position].” It doesn’t change the fact that Dems turned the comment section into an identity-politics safe space, instead of citing Trump’s actual policies.
Blue, I’m not so sure that I’m all that different than i was years ago. But IMO the progressive party has progressed too far, far beyond what they did years ago. I hinted at it some time ago when I said that “Dems ran out of stuff to protest.” So the pendulum is going too far the other way.
I don’t have tie to read all of that, but I doubt that there’s any evidence that disproves my assertion that “most people who voted for Trump in November vote Republican in every presidential election.”
This is from you BBC article:
There were stories before the election of Republicans planning to vote for Mrs Clinton because they did not like their own candidate, but the exit poll actually suggested that 7% of people who identified themselves as Republicans had voted for Mrs Clinton, while 9% of those who identified as Democrats had voted for Mr Trump.
I also found this.
Obama-to-Trump voters are not a myth — but they’re also not the real story
Yes, a tiny slice of the electorate went from Obama to Trump, but they don’t explain how the Democrats went wrong
A New York Times analysis of YouGov data finds: “For every one voter nationwide who reported having voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016, at least five people voted for Trump after not having voted four years ago. Clinton attracted substantially fewer 2012 nonvoters, the data show.” YouGov data suggest that only 7 percent of Obama voters flipped to support Trump, and the real number could be even less. Though these individuals make up a small share of Trump voters, they have drawn extensive attention.
http://www.salon.com/2016/11/27/obama-to-trump-voters-are-not-a-myth-mdash-but-theyre-also-not-the-real-story/
‘I don’t have tie to read all of that’
Stay ignorant, stay on the bench.
I can read them tomorrow and I’ll probably find that most Trump voters, as I stated, were Romney voters four years earlier.
Okay, I misspoke when I said “I.” How about, the article was supposed to analyze “Trump supporters will stop supporting Trump when…[fill in reneging on jobs policy position].”
So your point is that Dems don’t understand why people voted for Trump. That shouldn’t be that surprising. Trump fans don’t understand why more people voted for Hillary. As I explained, it’s only a small portion of Trump who support him because they think that he’s going to bring manufacturing jobs back to the Rust Belt. So far, there appears to be no progress on “build the wall”, “lock her up”, “repeal and replace” or pulling out of NAFTA. Trump supporters don’t appear to care.
Mighty Mike, the best analysis of the election (IMO) was at electoral-vote.com (I don’t have time to search for it). Basically, it looked at the raw vote totals compared to 2012. In the Rust Belt, Clinton consistenly LOST votes vs. Obama in 2012, while Trump was either the same as Romney 2012, or ~5% of the votes more than Romney 2012. The starkest change was in PA.
So sure, crow over your “most.” But that 5% that Trump gained over and above Romney was enough to swing the Rust Belt, and electoral college. Not to mention handing Dems a thorough drubbing in the Senate. The Dems need to take a really good look at that 5%.
So far, there appears to be no progress on “build the wall”, “lock her up”, “repeal and replace” or pulling out of NAFTA. Trump supporters don’t appear to care.
I already addressed that comment, Mike. I already said: They see Trump trying to enact his policies, but being paralyzed by continuous witch hunts. They fully believe that Trump (or at worst, Pence) will resume his promised policies once this is all over and done with.
Trump voters care very much about the wall and renogatiating NAFTA etc. But they also know that Trump can’t make much progress while there is a 24/7 call for impeachment.* What Trump HASN’T done is say, “ya know, I like NAFTA the way it is.” Or, “gee, maybe those factory jobs SHOULD be done by third-world serfs.” That’s how Trump would lose support. But right now, all the Trumpers see is nonstop obstruction. They aren’t blaming Trump for not making progress. If anything, Trumpers are uniting even more against the grandstanding Dems.
Come on, I’m giving you valuable insight into the mind of Trump supporters — especially that all-important small percentage the swung the Rust Belt. Are you going to use this insight, or scorn it? Based on what I’ve seen, you’ll scorn it. At your peril.
——————-
*By the way, Trump *did* make some progress — pulled out of the Paris climate agreement.
Trump fans don’t understand why more people voted for Hillary.
Maybe because “most people who voted for Hillary in November vote Democratic in every presidential election. In other words, they voted for Obama, Kerry, Gore, etc.”
Except this time, the rest of the voters, you know, the ones outside the “most,” stayed home in those states where Hillary needed and neglected them.
If by “more” you mean popular vote in California, well, that particular more always existed. But nobody really cared how *much* “more” the Dem won California by; they just put the 55 EV on the scorecard which tipped the election to the Dem. In fact, that “more” barely mattered to the Dems… until 2016, that is, when Dems were forced to face the fact that the more *didn’t* matter.
Geeze Mike, this is like shooting fish in a barrel. I’m going to bed.
‘So far, there appears to be no progress on “build the wall”, “lock her up”, “repeal and replace” or pulling out of NAFTA.’
People want change. What’s the dominate force? Globalism. With the attendant open borders/anti-nation state nonsense. Central bankism to keep it all going (ignore the growing inequality) and the US military “police the world crap” where we can’t beat goat herders.
I know change is scary Mike. But change you must.
8 years is a long time to be angry and afraid. Think about how much better the world will be with a bunch of entrenched DC bureaucrats and their ‘private sector partners’ doing long prison sentences.
Yes, people want change. My point is that they’re not getting any.
Also, most people who voted for Trump in November vote Republican in every presidential election. In other words, they voted for Romney, McCain, Bush, etc.
As far as I know that’s correct. But that also means the Ds that hate them are spewing that venom at the wrong target. Everyone knew they would vote for Trump but were expected to lose anyway. What happened to all those Obama voters…why couldn’t you close the deal with them? And why not hate them instead of the people who did what they always showed they would do?
“During his stay in 2008 just prior to the banking collapse, he tallied the cranes in use and spoke in no uncertain terms about the danger to the economy.”
Is the crane Iceland’s national bird?
“Magnús Árni Skúlason, economist at the consulting firm Reykjavík Economics, explains, however, that the number of cranes is not as good an indicator of economic instability as it was before the collapse. ‘In 2007, there was a debt bubble and an oversupply of residential real estate. The situation is different today.’”
It’s different this time, indeed.
“AltFacts”, why are you having a conversation with yourself?
Did you forget to change your name before replying to your comment?
Sometimes posters will add to what they wrote. They’re not replying, just adding. I’m the worst offender along that line, sometimes I remember something after I’ve posted, so I’ll post again below my own comment.
It’s sad that some readers are so dense that you need to explain the obvious to them. Thanks for being so patient.
hey Palmy, after your very last post if you happen see my car keys laying around give me holler.
appreciate it. they’re around somewhere.
pay no attn to that dented mailbox.
it jumped out behind me.
” . . . oak tree you’re in my way” LS
Central banks have bought a record $1.5 trillion of financial assets in just the first five months of 2017, which amounts to $3.6 trillion annualized, “the largest CB buying on record.”
Is this the PPT buying stocks to prevent the crash?
ICE ICE Baby:
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/politics/despite-pleas-from-denver-officials-ice-will-continue-immigration-roundups-at-courthouses
Article notes that Denver mayor Michael Hancock, every member of City Council, and several other Denver city officials signed a letter asking ICE to stop doing this, because #MuhSanctuary.
What do you call it when judges don’t want to uphold the law for political purposes….
United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit?
LMAO!
Sad, but so true.
The status quo.
Owner of Saks, Lord and Taylor cutting 2,000 jobs
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/north-americas-oldest-company-cutting-013419390.html
millennials don’t want stuff and boomers are looking to downsize.
everyone just needs a new phone and a great set of speakers to stay distracted.
Decent headphones are “good enough”. With Airbnb you don’t need a house. With Uber you don’t need a car. Without money there’s no point in marriage and family. Just a suitcase and a phone.
Whoever thought a gift wrapping room was a necessity?
Without money there’s no point in marriage and family.
That sounds like an old proverb that you might have picked up in China.
That sounds like an old proverb that you might have picked up in China.
No…but as I’ve gotten older I have gotten more cynical. Which does kinda work in China.
With marriage and a family there’s no money.
Good luck to you Carl!
“With marriage and a family there’s no money.”
Nice word play… and so true!
The irony here is that many Millenials don’t see any point in marriage or family, money or no money. Note the distinct lack of rings and papers, lots of MGTOW, and some WGTOW too, few kids, etc.
By the way, re Lord and Taylor. They are an old fashioned apparel store which thrived at a time when women believed in dressing well. And by dressing well, and mean high quality upper middle class fashion — with alterations — to be worn at the charity events and yacht parties, Tupperware parties, or just the grocery store. $200 dresses and $96 pants. L&T is not going to survive an environment where the boomers now dress in Wal-Mart sweatpants or polyester, GenX are lucky duckie fatties who shop at Wal-Mart Women’s, and Millenials still dress in yoga or athletic leggings from the outlet mall, or high-end clothes from Target.
Keep an eye on Talbots. I suspect they are next. In fact I’m surprised they haven’t gone under already.
It’s not just the ladies. 30-40 years ago I bought tailor altered suits. Now I don’t wear suits at all.
and yet they want to bu neiman marcus
https://www.thestreet.com/story/14133558/1/hudson-s-bay-hires-adviser-to-assist-on-potential-neiman-marcus-acquisition.html
Wouldn’t that be like a gilded log cabin?
I’m Lol-ing hard at the ads being served on this site through adsense- one is a retargeting ad for upwork that I will click to support Ben because I’m on upwork all the time… but the other is an ad to attend a “Real Estate Opportunity” seminar with THE Tarek and Christina El-Moussa of Flip or Flop.
If only they knew what this site was about, I don’t think they’d be serving those ads… come to think of it I’ll click just to spite the shady company putting this seminar on.
“Residential global property has arguably been the most exciting investment of the past eight or nine years, but lately the fun has been draining away. House and apartment prices have been driven sky high by rock bottom interest rates and there are growing signs that they cannot go any higher. The days of double-digit annual house price increases appear to be over. The question now is whether the market is merely slowing, or whether it could go sharply into reverse. Is this a bubble, and if so, could it burst?”
Batten down the hatches. She’s gonna blow!
Russia is at fault….
/s
Terrible news for people who’d rather broadcast virtue signals on social media than admit the source of the problem:
http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-stops-offering-flag-profile-picture-filters-after-terrorist-attacks-2017-5
We will still have teddy bears and candles to stop future islamic attacks on infidels…
That poignant little note taped to that teddy bear at a makeshift memorial made me repent the evil I sought to do, said no jihadist anywhere, ever.
“candles to stop”
Oh gosh, at first I read that as “candle shop.” ! It brought back memories of the HBBers making fun of candle-pouring shops, paint-your-own pottery studios, and pirate stores. Ah those were the days…
Don’t look now, but AMZN just crashed.
Turn those machines back on!
F*ck Amazon. I buy books from Tattered Cover Books and if I need a special order I can wait a week to get it.
Jeff Bezos treats his workers in the Amazon warehouses like slaves, and the editorial stance of the Washington Post that he owns confirms he is a globalist cuck.
I returned something to Amazon today for refund because it was defective. They guy at the call center I talked to choked and told me I had paid 3 x retail for it. Silly me. I rarely get so careless.
Kind of weird also, I bought Amazon Canada and the call center was in the US.
Try Abebooks. Better and cheaper. I buy used technical books from them too. Sellers from England that ship those old classics.
AddALL, a quick book price and search comparison, here.
I like Half.com, too.
” Barrie real estate…detached residential properties posted an average selling price in May of $566,077″
Barrie is just a place to go through to get somewhere, and the economy there isn’t doing so great. Incomes dropping while houses go to the moon. Now about 7x household income.
If it all crashes (stocks and housing) do we (tightwads) win? Or do the fat cats with cash (Chinese) just get better deals?
With the executive/financial class fully in control of the national government and running oligopolies in the private sector, money printing doesn’t lift wages.
Just asset prices and executive pay.
They keep looking for wages to increase after almost nine years of near zero interest rates and falling unemployment. And it doesn’t happen.
Almost nine years! We’re still waiting for the reckoning.
We’re still waiting for the reckoning.
Naturally you would expect that the longer we wait the worse it will be when it finally arrives.
I see Carl Morris has kids w/report cards too.
Did I miss something? I do have a child and a step child that are school age.
“longer we wait, the worse . . ”
just tying into your comment w/a joke about report cards.
Dry Antiquarin humor is at times not easily interpreted.
step child that is school age
Betabux alert?
any Yaron Brook fans here?
http://www.chicksontheright.com/see-yaron-brook-tear-smirky-student-delish/
I wish something would tank already. I’m beginning to think I really am priced out forever, both housing and stock “markets”.
Crappy part is the correction will be pinned on Trump and the repubs and we’ll end up with a commie in 2020.
Crappy part is the correction will be pinned on Trump and the repubs ??
You mean like the repubs pinned the Great Recession on Obama and the Dems ??
Yes, just like that. Doesn’t matter if it’s true or not. Personally I wish the conservatives would be consistent instead of saying one minute that “government doesn’t create jobs” and then running a campaign based on job creation the next.
I’d be happy with less drama, lower taxes, controlled immigration, and not having to see the President, repub or dem, on TV every 6 hours. We have become a nation of bickering children.
“like the repubs pinned the Great Recession on Obama…”
Actually I think we were in the crapper shortly after Clinton left office. I kind of remember his telling Bush that what happens next was on him.
The “party” stuff is boring at best. Alarming usually.
You’re going to the wrong parties, man.
GOP always fails. “the buck stops where?”
http://www.zillow.com/palo-alto-ca/home-values/
Palo Alto CA rents CRATER 14%yoy
But…but…who wants to throw away money on rent?
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/09/rent-dont-invest-your-money-in-a-home-mortgage-says-a-new-report.html
From the report mentioned in the article:
“High home prices have led many consumers to give us the first clear indication we’ve seen in the National Housing Survey’s seven-year history that they think it’s now a seller’s market,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae.
Seven year history! Impressive!! Now it’s a seller’s market. Up till now it’s been… what exactly?
I am not see any drop in San Diego or Orange County rents or real estate prices! Darn it, crash and burn baby!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-09/destroying-myth-cash-sidelines
Destroying The Myth Of ‘Cash On The Sidelines’
Home prices…falling?
Imagine what it’s going to feel like being over-leveraged FBs trapped in a upside-down mortgage once the Great Reset begins in earnest.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/house-prices-slump-look-desperate-couples-solution/
Who but central banks and debt donkeys worries about deflation?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-idUSKBN18Y39D
Mario Draghi wakes up, paints his hair, gives everyone the bad news, collects a handsome salary and goes home. Whew.
Have the HBB’s resident male progressives suited up in the appropriate attire this morning?
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/fashion/lace-shorts-for-men-pastel-see-through-cazwell-hologram-city-gucci-a7770861.html
cue the SJW we’re all gonna die……
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/06/08/epa-delays-obama-air-pollution-rule/
Tech Bubble 2.0 took a hit on Friday. Although I don’t expect the real fireworks to commence until October/November.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/06/09/big-tech-stocks-come-unglued/#comments
“Debt disguised as equity investment” - what could be more sound & sustainable? (I may have to take over for ABQ Dan as the HBB’s resident China shill and tout/connoisseur of crow.)
http://www.scmp.com/business/article/2097707/are-developers-ending-their-affairs-chinas-shadow-banking-system
But…but…$100 a barrel! Coming soon? (The Prophet Dan.)
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Expert-Analysis-Bullish-Sentiment-Is-Fading-Fast.html
Even the progressive media wants Screech to disappear.
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/06/can-hillary-clinton-please-go-quietly-into-the-night
i figured she had one foot in the grave and wouldn’t even last 4 years, and kaine would take over, and finish destroying america