June 14, 2017

The Declines Could Signal Saturation Of The Market

A report from AZ Big Media in Arizona. “Phoenix renters caught a slight break in May, as average rents decreased slightly from the high reached in April, according to Axiometrics. Some moderation in the market can be expected given the recent drop in job growth. Meanwhile, levels of new supply are high, with 7,076 new units identified for 2017 delivery. ‘Phoenix’s current rent growth rate might not have been impressive a year ago, but the overall moderation of the apartment market places it among the strongest performing metros in the nation,’ said Jay Denton, vice president of analytics for Axiometrics. ‘However, occupancy is trending downward, which may limit the ability for strong rent increases later in the year.’”

From Boston Agent Magazine in Massachusetts. “Boston might be the third most expensive housing market in the country, but average rent prices in the area have actually begun to trend downward. According to a recent RENTCafé report, Boston has now been closely following a nationwide trend. It turns out apartment construction rates have actually been booming all over the country. And Boston is no exception. According to Yardi Matrix senior analyst Doug Ressler, this growth doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. It also means good news for those who hope to rent in some of the country’s historically pricey markets.”

“‘Renters have much reason to be optimistic,’ Ressler said in the report. ‘After a long period of incessant rent increases, rents are finally slowing down — even in some of the country’s higher-rent cities, like San Francisco and New York. Even if demand for apartment living is still robust, rent growth will continue to taper off in the coming months, mainly prompted by the record number of new apartments entering the country’s tightest markets.’”

The Longview News Journal in Texas. “Longview apartment rents continued to drop in May, according to a new monthly survey from Apartment List. The declines could signal saturation of the market, said Karen Holt, housing navigator with Community Healthcore in Longview. Rents apparently are dropping in the Longview area because newer and higher-end properties are making it tougher for older properties to attract tenants, Holt said.”

“‘So they are seeing a decline in occupancy,’ she said. ‘Therefore, they have to adjust their rent.’”

“Holt said renters should not have to pay more than 30 percent of their income toward housing. The area median household income is between $56,000 and $57,000 a year. Using $650 as a hypothetical monthly rent, Holt said a tenant would have to earn $12.52 an hour to avoid paying more than 30 percent of his or her income. ‘Wages are going to have to go up or the properties are going to have to lower the rent a little bit,’ she said.”

The Jewish Voice New York. “Luxury apartments are dropping in price. Robby Browne of the Corcoran Group found this out the hard way when he had to drop the price of the two-bedroom condo at 15 Central Park West which he owned that he was typically able to rent out for $18,500 a month. According to him, whenever a lease was about to expire, tenants and agents would be clamoring to rent the apartment, and he never had a problem finding someone new to move in. Now, with the current real estate market, he not only had to refurbish the apartment, but he had to drop the rent down to $16,250 a month.”

“As he put it, ‘I thought, ‘Be sensible, Robby, the rental market is down. Put it on at a price that will work. I don’t like missing a month.’”

“After a huge increase in rented condos that led many investors to become landlords, there’s now a huge quantity of extremely high priced condo units available on the open market. Tenants are finding themselves able to get sweet deals in terms of rent thanks to downturns in the real estate market, where landlords are finding themselves having to drop rents to find tenants. Since 2015, the high-end rental market decreased 10%-15% according to Robby Browne.”

“According to Dorothy Somekh, who works with Halstead Property, the real estate market will remain ’soft’ until apartments currently without renters are finally rented out. She states, ‘The people who are going to rent [to tenants] are the ones that are going to make adjustments quickly.’ Jordan Sachs with Bold New York. He stays, ‘Our clients on the rental market are getting 20 percent off on some of these apartments. You’re dealing directly with an owner, not a professional landlord. All he wants is cash flow, and every day the apartment sits vacant is affecting his return on investment.’”

“One can find a plethora of expensive condos and other rentals in places like Tribecca and Chelsea in Manhattan which have long been attractive to real estate developers. But with the closure of many new developments just in the last year, these same rentals are now on the open market. As Jordan Sachs put it, ‘We’re seeing a flood of apartments $40,000 and higher.’”




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114 Comments »

Comment by Living In Your Head
2017-06-14 18:20:08

Palo Alto, CA Rental Rates Crater 14% YoY

https://www.zillow.com/palo-alto-ca/home-values/

Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2017-06-15 19:29:16

Excellent. I spotted a vacant house today in Palo Alto that, looking it up after, Zillow “values” at $7M. Bahahahahaha.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-06-14 18:23:02

“‘Renters have much reason to be optimistic,’ Ressler said in the report. ‘After a long period of incessant rent increases, rents are finally slowing down — even in some of the country’s higher-rent cities, like San Francisco and New York.

Imagine how cheerful we renters will be at the coming auctions of the foreclosed houses that we’ll be picking up at firesale prices once the Fed’s asset bubbles implode in a spectacular supernova of wealth destruction.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-06-14 18:31:04

I don’t see how this can avoid resulting in a bunch of defaults:

‘Our clients on the rental market are getting 20 percent off on some of these apartments. You’re dealing directly with an owner, not a professional landlord. All he wants is cash flow, and every day the apartment sits vacant is affecting his return on investment.’

‘One can find a plethora of expensive condos and other rentals in places like Tribecca and Chelsea in Manhattan which have long been attractive to real estate developers. But with the closure of many new developments just in the last year, these same rentals are now on the open market. As Jordan Sachs put it, ‘We’re seeing a flood of apartments $40,000 and higher.’

Given the carry costs, these guys are thinking right now, this minute how long until they walk away.

Comment by whirlyite
2017-06-14 20:58:45

Ah, plethora! Such a lovely word!

 
Comment by ibbots
2017-06-15 08:55:24

A few years ago there was so much medical building going on, all around it seemed. I guess they overbuilt since two of the $100M+ projects are now out of business. One was due to massive health care fraud including selling medicare patients, and the other seems to have simply failed due to lack of business.

https://www.dmagazine.com/publications/d-ceo/2015/november/shocking-collapse-of-forest-park-medical-center-bankruptcy/

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/health-care/2017/06/06/walnut-hill-medical-center-closed-reason

The second place, Walnut Hill Medical Center, was a very nice place. I had a family member there in ICU. Out of the 12 or so ICU beds on that floor, only 2-3 were occupied. We received excellent care and wouldn’t hesitate to go back, too bad it closed. The ER was great, walk right in, no waiting…

Now they’re building all these apartments, 500 sq ft studios starting at $1100 / month, 3 bdrms for $3000 / month. There are simply not enough people to rent them all.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-06-14 18:24:59

“As he put it, ‘I thought, ‘Be sensible, Robby, the rental market is down. Put it on at a price that will work. I don’t like missing a month.’”

If Robby was sensible, he would’ve sold at the peak of the bubble. But he’ll have a lot of time ahead of him to ruminate on that thought.

Comment by scdave
2017-06-14 18:34:40

Picking the peak is just as difficult as picking the bust.

Comment by palmetto
2017-06-14 18:46:49

bro’ regarding today’s events…you own it!

Tag. You’re it.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-06-14 19:07:07

I gotta say that makes no more sense coming from you than it does coming from him.

“Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him.” Proverbs 26:4

If you don’t like his game, don’t play it. You will be beat by experience.

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Comment by palmetto
2017-06-14 19:46:39

Tomorrow there will be some horrible cataclysm in California or the ME. And I’ll make a grumpy comment about it. And dave’ll say: “You own it, palmy!” And then I’ll be “it”.

Gallows humor.

 
Comment by palmetto
2017-06-14 20:01:35

BTW, apparently Scalise was looking into some “stuff” the deep state doesn’t like being looked into and the media doesn’t wanna go there.

And has anyone noticed that ever since Comey was fired, it’s “Look, Ma, no leaks!” Funny, that.

 
Comment by sod
2017-06-14 20:26:16

“Justice Department special counsel Robert Mueller is investigating President Donald Trump for obstruction of justice, The Washington Post reported Wednesday evening.

Mueller is interviewing as early as this week three top intelligence officials as part of the probe, the Post reported, citing “five people briefed on the requests.”

That’s all these people do is blab to the press. Trump was probably only going to follow through on 20% of what he promised anyway, and with the constant noise and impeachment drum beat we’ll be lucky to get 1%. That travel ban that keeps getting struck down has made it clear to me that the will of the people is a farce. I’m sure there’s lots of examples but that was the clincher for me.

 
Comment by @AltFacts
2017-06-15 03:41:00

That travel ban that keeps getting struck down has made it clear to me that the will of the people is a farce.

FYI, there is an “o” in “force”.

 
Comment by palmetto
2017-06-15 04:50:03

Tucker Carlson really summed up the unfortunate situation that we, as US citizens, face. The intel services are corrupt and politicized. They want to run the show and as he says, they do, to some extent.

http://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/2017/06/14/tucker-carlson-deep-state-leaks-an-utter-perversion-of-the-system/

“In a Democracy we’re in charge – not unelected bureaucrats… Once the beurocracy has shoved asdie an elected government, they can do it again – and at that point it’s over… democracy is dead.”

As a reminder, not only does Jeff Bezos own the Washington Post, he also has major contracts with the CIA. So, not for nothing is the Washington Post the lead outlet for the disinformation.

 
Comment by oxide
2017-06-15 05:13:48

Palmy, are you implying that Scalise was specifically targeted because of deep state stuff? I dunno, the shooter didn’t seem to be that smart. I think he was gunning for general Rs and didn’t think any further than that.

Meanwhile, I don’t understand why the travel ban court cases are dragging on. Wasn’t the original travel ban supposed to be only three months, until more stringent vetting was in place? Well, it’s been more than three months. The vetting should be in place by now. So why pursue the bans further? At this point bans are moot.

 
Comment by palmetto
2017-06-15 05:44:28

“Palmy, are you implying that Scalise was specifically targeted because of deep state stuff?”

I won’t imply, I’ll just tell you. Yes. BTW, the media doesn’t give much time to the anti-child trafficking efforts of Jeff Sessions. A little over a weeks ago, he addressed a gathering of 1200 law enforcement people on the matter:

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/06/jeff-sessions-human-trafficking-239185

Here’s a clip from his address:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amzsonWJNp0

Sessions is being targeted as well, but differently. Scalise apparently was supporting these efforts and looking into what was going on.

“I dunno, the shooter didn’t seem to be that smart.”

They never do, do they, but he had some pretty good aim for a dummy, no? Pretty good lock and load skills for a pacifist Bernie supporter, if you saw the clip of the shooting. And he sure knew where and when those folks would be gathering for baseball practice. Social media is fertile ground for disgruntled, slightly unstable recruits. Makes the FBI’s job much easier these days.

Ha-ha, there’s even a real estate connection here. Did everyone know the shooter was a home inspector? You should have seen the Yelp reviews he got AFTER the shooting. They’ve since taken it down, but I think some enterprising young people managed to archive it for future reference.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-06-15 06:42:44

It’s interesting is reading this thread. First, there’s this assertion.

Trump was probably only going to follow through on 20% of what he promised anyway, and with the constant noise and impeachment drum beat we’ll be lucky to get 1%.

Then, there’s a discussion of the deep state.

Perhaps the fact that his party doesn’t want much of what he promised, or that his promises are impossible to implement are a better explanation for the fact that he’ll deliver so little of what he’s promised, along with that inexperienced motley crew he’s got working for him in the White House.

 
Comment by MightyMike
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-06-15 07:03:59

“at that point it’s over…”

Some probably hoped that it was already over and they are still upset that it’s not. Democracy is not over.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-06-15 07:37:59

“that inexperienced motley crew…”

Not really the case, but a handy dismissive instrument. Not initiated, indoctrinated and approved is more like it. Some of us voted against government by secret mystical hereditary high priests.

 
Comment by palmetto
2017-06-15 07:52:04

Lol, right on time, Mr. Stuff and Nonsense is chiming in.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-06-15 08:56:32

Not really the case, but a handy dismissive instrument. Not initiated, indoctrinated and approved is more like it. Some of us voted against government by secret mystical hereditary high priests.

Unfortunately, the jobs require knowledge and experience. People like Bannon and Kushner don’t have any.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-06-15 08:58:51

It’s all common sense.

 
Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-06-15 09:07:42

Seems like it.

“Palmy, are you implying that Scalise was specifically targeted because of deep state stuff?”
I won’t imply, I’ll just tell you. Yes.

Investigative journalist Liz Crokin has a few specific thoughts on this incident and Crokin believes that she knows exactly why an attempt was made on Steve Scalise’s life today.

BREAKING: IS THIS WHY REP. STEVE SCALISE WAS SHOT TODAY?

 
Comment by oxide
2017-06-15 09:42:53

Perhaps the fact that his party doesn’t want much of what he promised,

Mike, I agree with you wholeheartedly with you on this. Republicans are notorious for not caring about American jobs for American citizens, especially on the lower-skilled end of the spectrum. The real shock was when the Democrats stopped caring about them too.

In fact it rather surprises me that the Dems don’t openly court Trump for help on getting jobs and infrastructure for Americans. Don’t they realize that if they drive out Trump and get Pence, the Dems are done for?

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-06-15 09:43:15

It’s again a handy conspiracy theory, but Liz didn’t present a single fact.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-06-15 09:45:12

This is from the other day. The issue here is not ideology or policy preferences, just basic competence at doing the job.

Trump tells GOP senators that the House healthcare bill he celebrated in Rose Garden ceremony is ‘mean’
Bob Bryan and Associated Press
Jun. 13, 2017, 5:03 PM 8,064

Congressional sources say President Donald Trump has told Republican senators that the House healthcare bill is “mean” and that the Senate version should be “more generous.”

The remarks were a surprising critique of a Republican-written House measure whose passage Trump fought for and embraced. They also seem to undercut efforts by Senate conservatives to impose restrictions in their chamber’s legislation, such as curbing the Medicaid health care program for the poor and limiting the services insurers must cover.

Trump memorably held a Rose Garden ceremony with House GOP members after the American Health Care Act passed the chamber last month. There, he called the House legislation a “great plan” and said it was “very, very, incredibly well-crafted.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-ahca-mean-healthcare-act-senate2017-6

 
 
Comment by baabaabooie
2017-06-15 10:27:37

Mueller is the new Trojan horse to get their hands on Tax returns , business dealings etc to try and embarrass the President. He should just ignore any cooperation with the witch hunt, cause a Constitutional Crisis and force the Spineless Republican establishment who is really behind all of this to choose the manner of their own demise.

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Comment by Secret Agent
2017-06-15 11:58:35

Good point, booie. The Republican’ts have really fouled themselves this time, as if support of the Iraq War wasn’t enough. As a group, they have a craven, groveling desire for approval from the regressive establishment.

As to Trump, his wounds are self-inflicted. He has a nasty habit of kicking his supporters in the teeth. Goes back decades, look up his relationship with Roy Cohn (yes, THAT Roy Cohn, of McCarthy fame) and see what Cohn had to say about him. Demands loyalty, doesn’t always give it.

He’s kind of like the girl who goes to the prom and all of a sudden finds herself the belle of the ball, flitting around from this playboy to that one, neglecting to dance with the one what brung her. And then, when the playboys have passed her around and gotten what they want and start calling her a whore and treating her with contempt, oops, where’s Old Faithful? Oh, dear, Mr. Faithful done up and married someone else.

He had plenty of experienced advisors, he just poked them in the eye and made them play that chitty little game where he plays two opposing views off against each other. Gives him a real whiz-bang. And then he forces them to pass muster with Ivanka. It may work on the Apprentice and in Trump Tower, but not in the White House, as we’re seeing. I’m sure more than a few have told him to bite their patootie.

And all this after reciting “The Snake” many times at his rallies.

(now it’s dave’s turn to tell me “Palmy, you own it!”)

 
 
 
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-06-15 03:37:42

Nobody could have seen the massive stimulus coming, at points such as March 2009 or January 2012.

 
 
 
Comment by sunny-dee
2017-06-14 18:42:55

Something in the math in the Longview Journal is off. Earning $12.52 an hour is just under $25,000 per year, which is substantially less than $56,000. It shouldn’t be hard to afford reasonable rents ($650 - $850, say) if the median income is truly $56,000. However, if they’re doing some sleight of hand on the income — or on the number of units with moderate rents — then the worry about affordability makes more sense.

Comment by palmetto
2017-06-14 18:44:53

Is that sunny-dee from Riverview? If so, what brought you here?

 
Comment by oxide
2017-06-15 05:17:01

$56K is the median income, not the income that someone would make from minimum wage. Either that, or the Longview assumes that there are two people making $25K each and living in a $650/month apartment.

 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2017-06-14 19:01:28

Oxy, in the last thread you mentioned that our small rural towns will not be graced with Social Security recipients in 20 years to keep their housing stock all polished up. I won’t be taking up much space by then, or close to it, but I was wondering what you might think the implications are for yourself. It is not much of a leap to imagine that if the Social Security payouts get shut off, Federal pensions would be in the crapper as well.

Have you considered how you might survive 20 or 30 years of retirement in an age of broken Federal Finances?

Comment by oxide
2017-06-15 09:22:45

Hi Blue, I was referring to rural towns *today* being kept afloat by SS money *today.* In 20 years, the baby boomers will be mostly dead and of course not collecting SS (or pensions). So, in ~2040, the only way to keep these towns afloat is for millions of GenX move from the cities to the rural towns, bringing their SS and retirement money with them. I don’t see that happening.

For Feds in general, a career 25-year Fed employee at $100K hi-3 will get a $25K pension. He will also get ~$25K in Social Security, plus whatever other retirements he has. I don’t see why the US can’t just borrow more money to pay for SS. They already borrow to pay for Medicare. If we go bankrupt, so what? Our creditors will just kick the can like they did for Greece. However, if the pension and SS *are* cut, Feds would still have other retirements to live on. Especially if they bought a house and stayed inNot great, but probably not the Purina plan either.

For me personally, I’ll be okay. I have enough investments even if SS is cut. Also, if things don’t change drastically, when I retire, I will likely sell my current house and buy a rural house for about 1/3 the value.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-06-15 09:34:43

I’m 20 years ahead of that pretty much. Got the cheap rural(ish) house and can start on the Social Security as soon as my current gig takes its last gasp. I could go some years on savings if superfrugal Mr. Resourceful were to take over, but I rather hope they can keep the SS system going.

If the financial bubbles tear a leak seriously, I think de-urbanization is more likely.

Comment by redmondjp
2017-06-15 13:33:38

Getting out of the city seems to be a popular concept, but to what and to where? Heck, if you have medical issues, you want to be within an hour’s drive or less of a major metro area. You’re not going to find a heart specialist or a cancer center out in Podunk. And high-speed internet? Good luck with that one!

And, as most city folk have never experienced, life out in the country can be darn hard work! My great-grandparents on both sides immigrated here and took advantage of the homestead act to get their start in this country. My mom didn’t even have an indoor bathroom until she was age ten, in the early 1950s (her grandparents didn’t believe in modern conveniences and were still using draft horses to pull the plow up until they passed).

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-06-15 16:24:51

“life out in the country can be darn hard…”

You can find what you want, or imagine what you fear. I’m in Podunk. Two blocks north the farm fields start and stretch for miles. One block west is the local hospital. About an hour’s drive is world class medical centers. Take the helicopter if it’s an emergency. Several blocks to the East, all the stores you need for 95% of what you’d want to buy. Beyond that, it’s a beautiful lake with trophy fishing.

I’ve got 100 mbps fiber optic internet and my neighboring farmers do not plow with draft horses unless they are showing off. 20 minutes to top artist concerts. Do you have that in Redmond? This is not your granddaddy’s Podunk. Fear of the unknown is no excuse for paying 20 or 30x for housing.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-06-15 18:47:22

RURAL AMERICA IS STRANDED IN THE DIAL-UP AGE

High costs and lack of access to broadband service prevent residents of far-flung communities from joining the modern economy

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rural-america-is-stranded-in-the-dial-up-age-1497535841?mod=e2tw

 
 
 
Comment by Sean
2017-06-15 09:41:54

In 20 years boomers will still be alive. Their whole mantra is to stay young forever, prompting pharmaceutical companies to keep pumping out drugs to stay younger.

Boomers will be OK. They always are.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-06-14 19:37:15

We need Sweet William to return from his self-exile on Butthurt Island to explain how blockchain technology makes bitcoin impervious to cyber-theft.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/14/major-bitcoin-exchanges-hit-by-cyberattacks-as-record-rally-makes-them-a-target.html

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-06-14 19:45:12

‘return from his self-exile’

I banned that ungrateful asshole.

Comment by palmetto
2017-06-14 19:49:33

Another one bit the dust!

I’ll never understand this ungrateful thing. Just one rule and people can’t abide by it. Don’t slag the blogger.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-06-14 19:54:10

People don’t understand the time involved. A year or so ago I banned dan and rio in the same week for different reasons. I instantly had two hours a day free. That’s 14 hours a week! Ungrateful is not understanding what this all involves and complaining about nibbling crap.

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Comment by palmetto
2017-06-14 20:04:38

It’s not like you don’t give a warning or two, or three before taking action.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-06-14 20:34:20

Some of these dudes are like a dog with a bone. They just won’t let it go.

 
Comment by MacBeth
2017-06-15 05:07:06

Quite a while ago, Ben asked everyone on this board to pick an alias and stick with it, rather than change names frequently.

Ben - I assume that request still stands?

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-06-15 05:31:02

How much time do I spend policing this or that? Take this question: I spent a few minutes thinking about it. A couple writing this, I probably have a little follow up. Poof, there goes 20 or 30 minutes. This stuff adds up. I’m not kidding when I say when dan and rio would go on those 200 comment rampages that no one remembers or cares about, I’d waste hours every day moderating it. And now I just delete a bunch of stuff because I don’t have time to say, “now now, let’s do things this way.”

This is a simple blog with not much of a budget and you get what I have time to research posts and watch over the comments.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-06-14 20:30:10

I didn’t know you banned Bill. I thought he was just severely butt-hurt over Trump winning the election and our rebuttals to his Aspergian purist fixation of claiming we were Yellen-lovers if we continued to use dollars for transactions instead of putting everything we had into Bitcoin.

Comment by oxide
2017-06-15 09:28:07

Actually I’m very happy to know that banning was what happened to Bill (on election day IIRC). Since he disappeared so suddenly I was afraid that his heart condition had finally caught up with him. I hope he’s alive and well.

I didn’t realize that Rio and A-dan were writing 200-comment screeds. I wonder how much time they spent actually *writing* those posts, if it took two hours to moderate them!

Ben, if I ever seem to take up too much of your moderating time, please let me know, eh? I’ll gladly step back and calm down.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by 2banana
2017-06-14 21:40:07

Comedians think showing a beheaded head of Trump is art.

Shakespeare in the NYC Park shows Trump being assassinated.

Progressives/liberals rioting and conducting organized violence at Trump and conservative gatherings.

Democrats leaders calling Trump a Nazi and the people who voted him fascists.

And we are surprised liberals/progressives followers want to kill Republicans?

And Hitler never personally gassed a Jew.

But the hate and venom of democrat leaders are leading this country to political violence.

And it is not going to end well.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-06-15 06:48:45

It sounds like this stuff must represent a lot of the content on Fox News, Breitbart, etc. People consume the output of those right wing outlets because they want to get angry and the right media complex never disappoints. Of course, it has nothing to do with politics.

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-06-15 11:11:43

This comment sponsored by the Southern Poverty Law Center.

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Comment by In Colorado
2017-06-15 13:08:20

And your local chapter of Antifa.

Remember, the only good fascist is a dead fascist.

 
 
Comment by redmondjp
2017-06-15 19:54:06

Project much, Mike?

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Comment by sod
2017-06-14 20:05:45

From the Charleston Post and Courier:

“The high-profile and high-end 930 NoMo rental complex on Morrison Drive was acquired by a Singapore-based company, the buyer announced this week.

The property has 430 beds and cost $35 million to build. Monthly rents range from $930 to $1,030 per resident.”

So just going by what it cost to build (I assume the latest selling price was much more than that) that’s around $81k per bed to build it. Seems like a lot. So each bed breaks even in about 7 years, if rent were 100% profit and there were no taxes, interest, or maintenance expenses, which isn’t the case. So what it is it, more like 10 years or so before you start turning a profit? What condition is that student housing going to be in in 10 years?

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-06-15 04:10:17

‘around $81k per bed to build it. Seems like a lot’

I’ve posted reports of 20 or 30 year old apartments selling for 200k, 300k to 500k or more. Anyone remember the NYC place that was over 1 million per door? It was in default or something. But yeah, these numbers are in goofy land. And most of the entire industry still thinks we’ve got years to go up.

Comment by sod
2017-06-15 04:16:05

I assume too by the way the article referred to “430 beds” that the number of doors is way less than that?? 4 to a door maybe? That drives the cost per door way up!

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-06-15 04:42:58

I didn’t notice the beds thing. This is the new deal where they rent out individual bedrooms and tenants live dorm style, sharing common areas. Man oh man, I really want to manage that set up from hell. “Mr Property Manager, my room mate is a druggie who eats my food when I’m away!” Can you imagine all the ridiculous situations that would come up?

Believe it or not, in a few places like Chicago they are trying this dorm arrangement with luxury apartments on adults. They even said, “no one can afford these rents on their own”. Good luck.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2017-06-15 05:15:11

It’s a jolting example of the poverty that the property bubble brings.

 
Comment by palmetto
2017-06-15 06:20:42

Speaking of Charleston:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-15/port-charleston-reopens-after-dirty-bomb-threat

Four different domestic incidents yesterday. Count ‘em, FOUR. The “Bernie” shooter in DC, the UPS shooting in San Fran, the “active shooter” at Travis AFB, and this Charleston dirty bomb scare.

This is what the deep state goons never count on and they should know better by now. They’re running their own operations and then others decide to cut in on their action.

“Aw, jeebus, sir, whaddya mean I’m being re-assigned to the Charleston investigation? Just when I got things rolling in DC. It wasn’t even my operation. ….What’s that? Not one of ours? jeez, ya mean I have to actually work on something we didn’t come up with? What is this, Russia?”

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-06-15 06:50:25

“It’s a jolting example of the poverty that the property bubble brings.”

A thing of beauty, a work of art.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-06-15 06:56:06

It would be a tough task to force people into poverty but it has been proven to be quite easy to entice them into willingly making the choice.

 
 
 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2017-06-15 08:39:00

My times have changed Huger/morrison st leading to the mt pleasant bridge was the ghetto,also major flooding which made it impassable sometimes, they put in a new bridge extended the I26 highway

they wanted to hipsterize downtown and pushed the ghetto folk to north charleston where we lived and now that is prime shooting territory,

Lived near Northwoods mall, safe walk or bike to the 7/11 late at night no worries, but now there seems to be a shooting every other day on ashley phosphate road.

 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
Comment by taxpayer
2017-06-15 09:55:47

mix 4 hits w your legal limit on booze and try to drive=impossible

 
Comment by rms
2017-06-15 18:09:58

How about pot user’s credit score v. non users?

 
Comment by phony scandals
2017-06-15 18:40:56

Study: Colorado marijuana users more likely to be social, have full-time jobs than non-users

Brad Hamilton: Why don’t you get a job Spicoli?
Jeff Spicoli: What for?
Brad Hamilton: You need money.
Jeff Spicoli: All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz, and I’m fine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAiFSHfMeio

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-06-15 04:30:27

I just came across this:

“The only reason a great many American families don’t own an elephant is that they have never been offered an elephant for a dollar down and easy weekly payments.” — Mad Magazine

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-06-15 05:22:31

Hmmmmmm … if I can get that sweetie Suzanne to bring to me a few elephant buyers perhaps I can get a few more dotted lines signed.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-06-15 05:33:20

Worm farms, I miss those guys who used to come to me to borrow money so as to get rich investing in worm farms.

Chinchilla ranchers, I miss those guy as well.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-06-15 05:41:47

Flipping condos is less messy, at least for a while.

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Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-06-15 06:12:30

The fads - worm farms, chinchillas, condo flipping - they come and they go, but the dotted-line commitments associated with the fads remain.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-06-15 06:15:41

Pukes take the risks, lenders take the rewards.

 
Comment by Secret Agent
2017-06-15 06:27:52

“Pukes take the risks, lenders take the rewards.”

Where’s our goddam check, Mr. Banker? We did God’s work yesterday.

At least let me know how we’re laundering it

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-06-15 08:30:27

You will remain stiffed and you will like it.

 
Comment by Secret Agent
2017-06-15 08:51:09

Nice spread you’ve got in the Hamptons. Be a shame if something happened to it.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-06-15 10:15:19

If sumptin’ happens I’ll sell to the totally dumbed-down taxpayers the idea that they need to pay for it, just as I always do.

 
Comment by Secret Agent
2017-06-15 11:16:30

Yah, tough talk. The courier just came by. Thanks for the bonus. We earned it.

 
 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2017-06-15 07:14:13

“they have never been offered an elephant for a dollar down and easy weekly payments.”

For a limited time only, we will give you a minimum of $4000 toward your trade in any condition.

Yes, you read that right.

Whether you have to push, pull or tow your current elephant to our dealership, you’ll instantly get $4,000 for it.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-06-15 05:55:27

Wells Fargo in “trouble” again, this time over making improper changes to mortgages.

Using my Nostradamus-like powers of foretelling the future, I predict there will be slap-on-the-wrist fines and no criminal charges against any senior bank officials.

Sessions is as worthless as Holder and Lynch when it comes to turning a blind eye to financial sector fraud and criminality.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/15/wells-fargo-is-accused-of-making-improper-changes-to-mortgages.html

Comment by rms
2017-06-15 18:14:18

“Sessions is as worthless as Holder and Lynch when it comes to turning a blind eye to financial sector fraud and criminality.”

+1 Indeed.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-06-15 06:07:48

Bitcoin prices gyrating wildly. I think I’ll pass on “investing” in this scam “currency” backed by nothing. I already have FedBux for that.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-15/bitcoin-plunges-2-week-lows-triple-whammy-concerns

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-06-15 06:16:59
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-06-15 06:30:52

One of my favorite words to be found in the English language is the word “adjustable”; This magical word is filled with so many possibilities.

Ask a normal person how much something will cost him and he could probably tell you the answer down to the penny.

Ask a puke who signed a contract that contains the magical word “adjustable” the same question and he, despite what he might say, really has no idea.

Comment by Secret Agent
2017-06-15 06:35:08

Speaking of contracts, where’s our check? How are you laundering the cabbage this time?

Obama speeches? We gotta come up with something better. And don’t use Comey, at this point he’s damaged goods.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-06-15 06:39:00

Are the FANG bubbleonians about to get their heads handed to them?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-15/fang-stocks-monkey-hammered-open

 
Comment by butters
2017-06-15 08:08:32

Had to laugh this morning. Couldn’t access zerohedge from a client’s network this morning. LOL

Connection Request Details:
Web Page URL: http://www.zerohedge.com/
Web Page Category: Malicious Sources/Malnets

Comment by palmetto
2017-06-15 08:27:34

LOL! Well, then you’ve missed this little gem:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-15/unable-pay-bills-illinois-sends-dear-contractor-letter-telling-firms-halt-road-work-

Illinois can’t pay its bill for realz now. Stop that road work! Not only that, but its paper and toilet paper supplier has ceased to deliver, due to non-payment of bills, so people may have to stay home due to unsanitary conditions.

Yesterday’s shooter was from Illinois. I think his anger was a tad misplaced.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2017-06-15 09:25:36

When it comes to the commenters on there, malicious is huge understatement.

Comment by butters
2017-06-15 10:03:44

Comments used to be the best part of ZH right after the 08/09 collapse. Now it’s similar to any other ‘noos’ website.

 
Comment by oxide
2017-06-15 12:41:53

Don’t worry Mike, Washpost is still a safe space. Or, if you want equal opportunity bashing, try TheHill dot com.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-06-15 14:30:03

I wouldn’t call web sites spaces or safe or unsafe, unless there viruses involved. I’m sure that you find a better class of people among the commenters on The Hill.

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Comment by The Filth
2017-06-15 15:19:09

If it were up to MikeyMike and friends, websites like ZH (and others) would be shut down immediately and their owners jailed, tortured and killed.

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Comment by butters
2017-06-15 16:14:27

If not they will send someone like who shot that CONman the other day.

 
 
 
 
Comment by redmondjp
2017-06-15 13:47:36

Heh heh heh! We must be working for the same agency - I got that exact same message this morning as well.

 
 
Comment by SW
2017-06-15 08:48:06

Ben,
The articles today sound like they read your comments here for the last six months and published them.

The second article is extremely interesting as I have yet to see an articles published here where the reporter interviews someone saying rent growth will go down across the country. Mind you, they are. It saying RENTS will fall but it is definitely a different narrative than one would have read six months ago.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-06-15 11:42:47

If you dig a little you can see rents have been falling for a while in many markets. Take that 600 unit Boston tower that was cancelled earlier this year. The developer said straight out it was oversupplied and rents were down. Yes, article after article will say the top number is up, but that’s a function of luxury units being completed, value adds and omission of concessions and most importantly vacancies. Every day I find interviews with guys saying “we’ve got a long way to go, we need thousands more.” So why is lending drying up?

 
 
Comment by ZHi
2017-06-15 08:58:50

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-15/despite-bank-canada-hubris-existing-home-sales-crash-may

Despite Bank Of Canada Hubris, Existing Home Sales Crash In May

 
Comment by taxpayer
2017-06-15 09:37:40

rents in big cities don’t matter
oil prices in oil patch states don’t matter
same for corn/wheat in ag state

it just doesn’t matter

 
Comment by new attitude
2017-06-15 11:02:15

Yikes! It is getting so nasty out there, I am no longer talking to anyone about politics.

New Zealand is looking better each day.

 
Comment by Secret Agent
2017-06-15 12:18:21

We’re brilliant, I tell ya, Brilliant with a capital B. Investigating and processing our own crime scene. Bwahahahaha!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-15/fbi-update-virginia-shooter-purchased-rifle-and-handgun-federal-licensees

Always a nice touch! That’s what I like about us, creating the problems and then offering the solutions, what a win-win!

 
Comment by aNYCdj
2017-06-15 13:15:14

COME GET IT ….New To Market! 2 Bedroom 2 Baths With XL Backyard And Rooftop Cabana

http://www.brownstoner.com/listing/MODERNSPACESNYC-111342/long-island-city-hunters-point-long-island-city-ny-11101/

Comment by Taxpayers
2017-06-15 13:46:34

Ever watch “million dollar listing” ny
Zillow still predicts happiness

 
 
Comment by Taxpayers
2017-06-15 13:25:06

Yellen offers to drain fed balance sheet over 400 months and no comments anywhere
?deep thoughts?

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-06-15 13:48:30

Personally I’m so skeptical that I don’t even bother commenting. They’ve talked in the past about all the stuff they were going to do and then as soon as the economy starts going south they forget all about that.

I’ll believe it when I see it.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-06-15 15:55:35

Completely skeptical. I’m imagining the banks are setup for something like the mother of the S&L crisis. Bad long term commercial loans based on low short term interest rates.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2017-06-15 15:59:38

400 months? That’s longer than a 30 year mortgage.

 
Comment by butters
2017-06-15 17:31:56

She means she will do another 400 months of fed balance sheet expansion. She’s a LIAR.

 
 
Comment by PoohEmoji
2017-06-15 13:51:51

Regarding the discussion of retail the other day, all is well in San Diego:

“We’re really excited, because a lot of great things are happening around our project in this part of the Valley,” said Dinerstein West Coast partner Josh Vasbinder, who is in charge of developing his company’s five-acre Millennium Mission Valley project. He said the Westside of Mission Valley along the San Diego River, where all of these projects are located, is evolving to a 24/7, urban market.”

https://www.bisnow.com/san-diego/news/mixed-use/dense-development-planned-in-mission-valley-supported-by-mass-transit-75588?be=dculp%40sandiego.gov&utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=thu-15-jun-2017-000000-0500_san-diego-re

 
Comment by Auntie Fed
2017-06-15 14:01:47

Why would anyone pay $40,000/mo for an apartment? Why even bother to live in such an expensive place? If you are making that kind of money, then surely you must be in a position to move the freaking office.

So anywayz yeah. I’ve been looking for some apartments to potentially buy, but nothing is for sale at a price that even comes close to making a profit. The best deal I could find would probably net me $3/month after expenses, and I would have to pay taxes on that. How is anyone supposed to ever retire in an environment like that? Are we all just supposed to let our entire nest egg ride on the stock market and hope it goes up forever?

Housing bubbles be damned!

Comment by butters
2017-06-15 17:38:39

Why would anyone pay $40,000/mo for an apartment?

It’s called keeping up with Ben Joneses. It’s called flaunting your wealth.

 
 
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