Everyone Talks About Oversupply
A report from the Charlotte Observer in North Carolina. “Tenants are signing leases for three new uptown apartment towers, the latest in a wave that’s flooding the market with luxury units commanding the highest rents in the city. The avalanche of apartments means developers need to find renters for hundreds of freshly built units, a new test for the ongoing apartment boom. The gleaming towers feature top-of-the-line amenities that weren’t common even in high-end condominiums before the recession: Rooftop pools, spas for washing pets, package rooms with refrigerated storage for meal-delivery services. Jim Borders, CEO of SkyHouse Uptown’s co-developer Novare Group, said the building’s first tower is nearly fully leased while the second is about 20 percent leased. He said worries about oversupply downtown have become common in many of the markets in which Novare Group is building apartments, from Denver to Nashville.”
“‘Every single one of them, everyone talks about oversupply,’ said Borders.”
From Builder Online. “NAHB Eye on Housing’s Carmel Ford reports that completions of non-subsidized, unfurnished, rental apartments in buildings with 5 or more units totaled to 73,300 in the fourth quarter of 2016, which is about 9% higher than completions in the fourth quarter of 2015 (67,300). The absorption rate (the share of apartments rented within three months after completion) was noticeably lower at 48% in the fourth quarter of 2016. In the fourth quarter of 2015, it was 55% and has not been below 50% since the fourth quarter of 2009.”
From Bisnow on Texas. “As the urban core densifies more this cycle than ever before, the submarkets surrounding Downtown Dallas become more attractive to multifamily developers. Two of those submarkets — Uptown and East Dallas — have more units under construction than any others. High-end developments are leasing well, anything from 15 to 20 units a month in both submarkets, according to CoStar. ‘But we’re starting to see higher concessions. What was one month [free rent when signing] last year is 1.5 or two months this year,’ CoStar Group Senior Market Analyst of DFW David Kahn said.”
“Meanwhile the newer Uptown submarket is making more of a luxury play. Kahn’s only concern with the healthy market is communities renting units for $3/SF. ‘Until The Taylor delivered around $2.50/SF in 2014 and Brady delivered around $3/SF in 2015, we never saw that. Now we’re basically about to quadruple the amount of high rents in this small area in a couple of years.’”
The Sacramento Bee in California. “Six out of the seven least affordable metropolitan areas across the U.S. are in California. They are Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, San Diego, Riverside and Sacramento. ‘It’s getting harder and harder to live here,’ said David Shulman, a senior economist for the Anderson Forecast. ‘The state is running out of people who can afford the $3,500 per-month rents so those prices are beginning to fall…but if you look at the one-bedrooms for $1,500, those rents are continuing to go up.’”
From Bloomberg on New York. “Donald Trump’s office properties aren’t bringing in as much cash as banks that loaned him money had expected. The buildings — 40 Wall Street, Trump Tower, and 1290 Avenue of the Americas, a tower in which Trump holds a 30 percent stake — are victims of a changing New York office market, where gleaming new skyscrapers are attracting tenants and demand for space in vintage properties is falling.”
“‘We’re in the biggest development pipeline in Manhattan since the 1980s,’ said Keith DeCoster, director of real estate analytics at Savills Studley. ‘Older buildings — circa 1980s, 1990s — are having a tougher time competing.’”
The Real Deal on Florida. “When the development firm lead by condo king Jorge Pérez hit the brakes on Auberge Residences Miami, a three-tower, luxury project planned for Miami’s Arts & Entertainment District, South Florida’s real estate community took notice. When the king lays off the gas, that doesn’t usually bode well for others.”
“Q: Do you think that slow and steady is the new normal for South Florida? A: I would think that we will always be a city of bumps and highs, a little bit like a roller coaster. At heart, developers are cowboys. They like the business, and we try to control them, but I don’t have control. The good part about Miami is this huge international demand. The bad part about Miami is every time they [foreign buyers] come in, we also have developers coming in from Colombia and Argentina and they have these projects and we say, ‘Are they kidding? They don’t know the market.’”
“‘I’m not going to throw anyone under the bus, but you’re seeing some projects [where] I’m saying, ‘Even in a good market, these should not be developed. It does not make sense,’ and we’ll get some of those.’”
‘The building boom in big Treasure Valley office buildings is about to end’
‘Gardner’s Ten Mile Crossing, under construction in Meridian just north of I-84’s 10 Mile Road interchange, commands lease rates in the “mid-20-dollar” range per square foot per year, Wali says. Normal inflationary pressure should have increased office-lease rates into the high 20s or low 30s by now, he says, but demand isn’t strong enough.’
‘
The average asking price for Downtown Boise Class A (high quality) office space climbed to $20.75 in May, according to commercial real estate firm Thornton Oliver Keller.’
“We will see a slowdown in not-too-distant future,” Wali says. “You can’t build into a price range where you can’t get the rent.”
‘You can’t build into a price range where you can’t get the rent’
Well you can, but the outcome might surprise a few:
‘Until The Taylor delivered around $2.50/SF in 2014 and Brady delivered around $3/SF in 2015, we never saw that. Now we’re basically about to quadruple the amount of high rents in this small area in a couple of years.’
I visit Boise about once a year on work assignments. Last time was September 2016. The amount of new construction in the downtown area was quite astonishing to behold.
It’s like this everywhere. I was in Salt Lake City a few days ago looking at several construction cranes.
Lots of beggars on the streets there too, which surprised me.
Hi housing prices and beggars wandering the streets go hand in hand.
Boise is the latest LGBT “safe-space” making gains in flyover.
“Do you think that slow and steady is the new normal for South Florida?”
Of course! It’s JEB country, where slow and steady wins the race!
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/interesting-contents-jeb-bushs-pockets-36124107
‘I’m not going to throw anyone under the bus, but you’re seeing some projects [where] I’m saying, ‘Even in a good market, these should not be developed. It does not make sense,’ and we’ll get some of those.’
He won’t throw them under the bus but he’ll build it, sell it to them, and buy it back in foreclosure.
That’s the game, isn’t it? And what better place to do it than South Florida? Which basically turned into a cesspit shortly after Nafta was instituted.
He never said he wouldn’t throw them under the steam roller.
‘The state is running out of people who can afford the $3,500 per-month rents so those prices are beginning to fall…but if you look at the one-bedrooms for $1,500, those rents are continuing to go up.’
Oh are you concerned? Because what I usually hear, especially out of California, is great rejoicing about higher rents. Hurrah, more renters will be presurred to buy a shack or air box and we’ll all be rich!
‘The lower end of the rental housing market continues to lose ground, according to the new The State of the Nation’s Housing report by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University.’
‘Modestly priced rental units available for under $800 declined by 261,000 between 2005 and 2015, with most of the loss occurring at the lowest rent levels. At the other end, the number of units renting for $2,000 or more surged by 1.5 million.’
‘The shift in the rental stock toward the high end of the market is also clear from the 32% rise in real median asking rents since 2000, says the report.’
‘As a result, there is a worsening mismatch of demand and supply, with the number of low-income renters far outstripping the number of available affordable units. Indeed, more than 11 million renter households pay at least half of their incomes for housing.’
‘Nearly half (48%) of all renters were cost burdened in 2015, but shares among lower-income households were much higher—83% for renters with incomes under $15,000 and 77% for those with incomes between $15,000 and $29,999. In addition, some 26% of renter households paid more than half their incomes for housing in 2015. Among those earning under $15,000 per year, the share with severe burdens exceeded 70%.’
This is the direct result of the value add rehab boom financed in large part by government backed loans.
Cheap easy credit driving 10s of millions into poverty. It’s a system that creates inefficiency with a vicious feedback loop.
“… driving 10s of millions into poverty.”
Driving? Cheap and easy credit isn’t DRIVING anybody anywhere; What cheap and easy credit is doing is luring - LURING - these 10s of millions of totally dumbed-down ignorant pukes into poverty.
Lay out a few dotted lines for these totally dumbed-down ignorant pukes to sign and stand back and marvel at how they so willingly flock into the bank in order to sign them.
My thanks goes out to the numerous Amys and Suzannes of the world who work so hard in bringing to me these vast hoards of ignorant pukes. And my thanks goes out to our wonderful educational system for instilling into the minds of these vast hoards of totally dumbed-down ignorant pukes the extreme ignorance that makes it all not only possible but so easily possible.
Actually the crazy credit boom is impoverishing even those who will not sign on the dotted line. See the article.
every time i read “pukes” in a comment i get a vision of a drill sargeant in a bankers suit screaming at financial boot camp interns on Wall Street.
lazy maggots! i want your D.O.R.
ring that bell
A worthy goal.
I keep hearing about this cheap easy credit. That doesn’t bug me. What bugs me are the bailouts and the cheap easy refinancings. So what if they can borrow cheap? As long as they either pay it back or lose their shirts, I don’t see an issue.
It’s the middle ground where they buy off politicians so they can keep doing it forever that makes me angry. Hell, I’m paying back my debt better than these multimillionaires.
I suspect I know why you don’t see an issue. It could be because you are one of the cheap easy credit players. You bought a bigger house and paid a higher price largely because all the money was just there for the asking. You are a market force. You are responsible for squeezing out those who won’t or can’t go deeply into debt. When you or anyone like you pays such huge sums with cheap easy credit for housing, you impoverish everyone else in the community. Maybe it’s too abstract to grasp, but that’s all I’m trying to say.
That doesn’t make sense. She certainly didn’t impoverish the people who sold her the house.
LOL.
If the sellers didn’t extract all they got from the community, consider that they get less than half of what she pays for the house.
That may not make sense to you either.
It doesn’t make sense because it’s a poorly written sentence, regardless of your decision to declare yourself the smartest guy on the planet.
LOL
Blue did you declare yourself the smartest guy on the planet?
No indeed Smartest Guy. I simply was trying to pull away from decades of Real Stupidity, with the motto “I’m not a failure until I stop trying”. I suppose I should stop trying to engage with those on a different path.
Then Mike lied again.
“You bought a bigger house and paid a higher price largely because all the money was just there for the asking.”
Check.
“You are a market force.”
Double check …
Check number one: The higher price increased the values of the comps. These increased values created “wealth”.
Check number two: The higher prices created demand. No matter what the supply/demand charts taught you to believe in Econ101 during a mania high and rising prices creates demand.
“You are responsible for squeezing out those who won’t or can’t go deeply into debt.”
Can’t is one thing, won’t is another. The term “shouldn’t” should be in there somewhere, but it isn’t. (It used to be in there but the dumbing-down process removed it.)
Mike, you don’t understand Blue’s thinking. You see, I am “robbing” a family of low-cost housing, because *I* had the education and income (how dare I) to buy a house at a bubble price,* thus perpetuating the bubble. If I knew my place, as a proper old spinster should, I would have allowed prices to crash around me, while I generously continued to rent a 1-bed apartment so that others can take advantage of the low housing prices.
But, I guess I’m a real estate playa now. Just like Angelo Mozilo.
Blue also doesn’t quite understand how lucky — and in the minority — he is, to have a relatively high-pay job in a low-cost area. He’s likely making six figures in an area where houses cost $70K. How dare we not be superhuman, as he is.
—————
*of course, I bought in 2012 when values were at a dip price and not a bubble price, and I bought when few other families were competing for housing (so much for the robbery), AND I bought using a down payment and credit rating that I had been diligently saving up for 10+ years while everyone else was cashing out for boob jobs. But we’ll just keep all that a secret from Blue, shall we?
One possibility is that you knew what you were doing, and you knowingly help to impoverish the nation. The other is that you are a big dummy who had no idea what she was doing.
You’re definitely right about this:
Blue also doesn’t quite understand how lucky — and in the minority — he is, to have a relatively high-pay job in a low-cost area. He’s likely making six figures in an area where houses cost $70K. How dare we not be superhuman, as he is.
It should be added that a lot of people who are lucky think that their good fortune is due their virtue. It’s quite possible that Ivanka, Donald Jr. and Eric Trump think that they’re rich because they’re smart and hard-working.
No matter what the supply/demand charts taught you to believe in Econ101 during a mania high and rising prices creates demand.
There seem to be a lot of mixed message regarding the value of Economics 101. Some people say that it’s great, others say that it’s awful. Other change their tune from day to day.
Econ101 works well in a normal market where common sense prevails and measureable values are attached to something other than prices, but it falls apart in a mania when values are equated with prices.
It’s quite possible that Ivanka, Donald Jr. and Eric Trump think that they’re rich because they’re smart and hard-working.
Guaranteed. It’s human nature.
“So what if they can borrow cheap? As long as they either pay it back or lose their shirts, I don’t see an issue.”
Have a look at some of the photos of empty buildings in Chinese cities that are occasionally posted here, then get back to us.
But that was my point, P-bear. If the Chinese developers had paid back those loans and owned the ghost apartment towers outright, then fine, let them rot. Or, if they own the towers outright, let them sell apartments at pennies on the dollar (or the yuan equivalent); they would still make a tiny profit.
Or, the loans weren’t paid back, let the creditors repo the towers and sell the towers for cheap. But do something, anything other than print yuan while the building rot. Which is what is going on now.
This morning, Bloomberg Radio hosted Robert Shiller and some other guy. The other guy wanted the gov to get out of the housing business, while Shiller like the QRM-rules from Dodd-Frank.
I’m not sure how to go on this. No matter which way the government goes, the middle and lower classes will suffer, e.g.
1. Gov gets out entirely <– prices drop but the rich buy up most of the properties with cash and rent it out.
2. Keep current system <– everybody builds only luxury housing and the middle classes has to pack even tighter.
3. Keep current prices but just give out money so poor can pay the high prices <– builders just build and inflate prices to pocket gov money.
4. Place conditions on loans so that gov backs up ONLY affordable housing. <– picking winners and losers, and places turn into slums anyway.
Anyone got any bright ideas? Yes, I know that HBB likes #1, but that’s not going to bring back the days of happy Levittown small ranchers for the masses.
Bright idea:
Get Uncle Sam out of the housing business, and for good measure, levy a tax on foreign investors comparable to the one in Vancouver in order to let prices equilibrate to levels the Millennials can afford. I realize that some folks who won the housing market lottery would suffer, but they did nothing to earn those gambling spoils, so they shouldn’t expect their free lunch to go on forever.
Getting the younger generation into housing at traditional multiples of income would plant seeds of Middle Class prosperity that could last for many decades. Trump could live in history as a champion of the Middle (Republican voter) class.
Basically you want to MAGA.
There are no brakes on this train.
Getting the younger generation into housing at traditional multiples of income would plant seeds of Middle Class prosperity that could last for many decades.
If prices will decline and the support that borrowers get in the form of low interest loans with low down payments is also reduced, how do you know which will have the bigger effect on affordability for the younger generation?
We know the current buehl sh*t ain’t working.
Turning a home into an investment vehicle, along with staples like food and energy, to be traded on some sort of financial platform for profit is evil. Wall Street, Bankers and Politicians stopped worrying themselves about the “younger generation” many years ago.
Food has been traded on the commodity markets for a long time. Futures markets help farmers hedge the many risks that face. You can call anything you want evil, but it’s not really a point.
So, Mike, you don’t think that financial speculation on life essentials such as food and shelter isn’t evil?
There is an argument that financial speculation helps markets operate more efficiently, making everyone collectively better off. I’m not sure how well the principle holds up in the world of financial schemes and scams in which we live.
As I wrote, farmers derive some benefits from futures markets. The traders and brokers and others in Chicago who run those futures markets make it possible. Though true speculation in food would have to a lot different from other kinds of speculation, since food is perishable.
Now consider housing speculation. If someone bought a house in 2010, rented it out for seven years, and then sold it this year for nice profit, should we consider that to be evil? I don’t think that I would.
Though the whole world of rented houses seems strange to me. When I was a kid people rented apartments and there was no shame associated with that. Sometimes they lived cheap in apartments while saving up a down payment and then bought a house.
Getting the younger generation into housing at traditional multiples of income
You are forgetting that households have been predicated on two incomes for at least 30 years now. In most of the country, at these interest rates, housing IS priced at traditional multiples of household income. Example, in the DC area, two $50K teachers can afford a $300K house. Guess what, that’s about what modest houses cost in that area these days.
In Pinellas County, FL, home of Muggy, a modest house (not a new house) costs ~180K. A $60K teacher could afford that on his own if he squeezes. Or, if his wife works at Costco for $30K to, they could afford it easily.
And so on. A foreign investment tax might help the bubble areas of California and Seattle.
Even in your part of the world, $100k is above the median household income, so most people can’t afford even a modest house.
Good job ladies.
“…prices drop but the rich buy up most of the properties with cash and rent it out.”
That presumes a lot of dumb rich people who want to catch a falling 🔪 by snapping up properties during a supply glut when prices and rents are falling. I guess anything is possible, but this seems unlikely to happen.
OPM, the cash belongs to somebody else.
Anyone got any bright ideas? Yes, I know that HBB likes #1, but that’s not going to bring back the days of happy Levittown small ranchers for the masses.
Maybe not, but the advantage to #1 is that it actually attempts to get back to supply and demand, with the possible exception of an attempt at monopoly by the winners of the old system as you mention.
So are there really enough rich looking to collude to keep prices high without government help? I’m skeptical but it’s possible.
Are they likely to succeed? I say no. There is plenty of land. If new houses can be built cheap enough for people with jobs to afford, builders will build them. This will undercut any temporary monopoly and soon houses will cost what people can afford to pay. It’s the only way out of the craziness and that’s why “the HBB” likes it.
But the fact is there are probably already enough houses in most places and prices would naturally fall to that point right now if all interference stopped. Imagine right now if there were no guaranteed loans…banks could lend what they want but take the losses for bad loans and must use traditional mark to market accounting.
The land near the jobs is expensive.
I vote #8, we build some new cities. Engineer them from the ground up with lots of thought, and perhaps place restrictions that only owner-occupants can purchase? Or is that communist.
Or is that communist.
It’s definitely the Chinese model. Opinions vary on whether that’s really communism.
The land near the jobs is expensive.
Yet the bubble is almost everywhere…why is that? And why should the jobs move anywhere cheap, if there is nowhere cheap? With real supply and demand there might be some pressure to spread the wealth a little in regard to jobs.
Ethan, spreading out the jobs to smaller cities to create more commute-friendly land is a good idea. Isn’t that sort of what we had during the 1950-1980 boom, with a factory job in almost every rural town?
“the HBB”
Do they have a lodge? Secret handshakes?
We are not allowed to tell.
Actually we do have the verbal equivalent of secret handshakes. Oil Cities, pirate stores, dry-cleaner effect, joshua trees, floating air boxes, what what the do, how’d the dog get up there, crash and craaaater, lazy river, puddle watchers, panda cams, … signs and countersigns unique to the lodge.
The commenters on “the HBB” constantly advocate to get the government out of housing, with the objective of placing housing in the hands of the middle class and lower middle class where it belongs. I agree with the objective, but I don’t think lack of government will get us there. Yes, we had that ideal from 1950-1990 or so, but at the time, the middle class had money and businesses had ethics and morals and there was no foreign competition to speak of. But nowadays, where there are no longer ethics and morals, gov needs to step in. But where and how much?
‘The commenters on “the HBB” constantly…’
I think you’re exaggerating.
A good joke generally has two parts: A set up and a punch line.
Here’s the set up:
“But nowadays, where there are no longer ethics and morals, …”
Here’s the punch line:
“… gov needs to step in.”
The statement “We are from the government and we are here to help you” is a well-worn joke that has both the set up and the punch line packaged up in the same sentence.
where there are no longer ethics and morals, gov needs to step in
This has worked out well many times. MADD is one example.
“So are there really enough rich looking to collude to keep prices high without government help? I’m skeptical but it’s possible.”
I guess the transmutation of lead into gold is possible, but I’m skeptical.
False choices.
And green handshakes.
“I’m not sure how to go on this…”
I used solution #1 on a personal scale and found it quite satisfactory. I bought a shack that couldn’t be mortgaged, because it didn’t have plumbing. So, no government supports to make the price crazy. The price was approx. 1 X minimum wage. I put in a very nice bathroom.
I am within walking distance of jobs, markets, hospital, recreation & etc. This will do just fine and I don’t have to wonder “how to go”. I’m still watching the rest who can’t find their way out of the matrix. I would like the government market fixing to stop for all of your sakes.
FWIW
The stock market gave off a major sell signal today. (Yeah, I know you have head this before.)
It usually goes: minor crash(1200 DJIA points), recovery, MAJOR CRASH. A few more months, folks.
PATIENCE
The stock market gave off a major sell signal today.
It did? I ask because the indices were up the last time I checked.
Me, too. Maybe he means recovery stage.
You have NOT had any crash as yet.
Percent-wise the daily changes now are noise.
So what was the sell signal?
The quadruple-smoothed moving average crossed the quantum momentum oscillator — an event which hasn’t occurred in thirty years!
Sounds like it’s time for 1.21GW.
We are on vacation. For reasons I cannot explain, more often than not we have great weather and the stock market sells off when we go on vacation. I am not claiming our family is some kind of reliable Wall Street indicator like skirt lengths; just noting an interesting, if subjectively measured, empirical regularity.
Sell in May and go away.
I think the pattern in stocks is similar to 1986-1987. I think we get a dry run this fall (or late summer) and the main event next year. Hmmm, right around the time of mid terms too. Should be fun!
Reposting from yesterday’s post:
Just read that the City of London is going to permanently house people displaced by the Grenfell fire in luxury flats that cost 2 million dollars each.
As Margaret Thatcher once said, it works great until you run out of other people’s money.
it works great until you run out of other people’s money.
Nah, we will never run out of money. –Mama Yelling
Hehe… there goes the neighborhood.
From the lively little RE blog up in Greenwich, CT:
William Raveis agent arrested for stealing personal belongings of former home owner.
https://www.christopherfountain.com/blog/2017/6/21/well-in-her-defense-the-wilton-real-estate-market-has-been-dead-dead-dead-for-years
Changing the subject, Palmetto, did you read this today? The Tampa Bay Times seems to have a weekly cheerleading session for local real estate, camouflaged as objective reporting:
“Continuing a remarkable run with no end in sight, prices for single family homes in the Tampa Bay area jumped again in May compared to the same month a year ago, according to figures released today by Florida Realtors.
…
In Pinellas, for example, a young couple paid $215,000 — almost $240 a square foot — for a 900-square-foot cottage near St. Petersburg’s popular Historic Kenwood area. Realtor Clay Glover bought the house three years ago for $37,500, rented it out temporarily, then did a complete makeover before putting it up for sale.
The first offer came within a week. ‘It’s just amazing what the market has done,” Glover said, “so I decided to take my chips off the table.’”
http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/realestate/tampa-bay-home-prices-continue-double-digit-increases-with-no-slowdown-in/2327990
Thanks for posting, snake. A familiar story, unfortunately. And yet, taking a look at all those foreclosures and pre-foreclosures on Zillow, along the Land O Lakes-Lutz-Wesley Chapel strip tells the real story.
This was also on the lively little RE blog, posted by one of the commenters:
Children of Darkness:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=9rzJTnuLjZ0
4 minutes. Explains the reason behind youthful insanity. Jeebus. You’re looking at the end result of drugs, both pharmaceutical and recreational, and psychiatry and pop psychology. With a dollop of educational indoctrination.
I think it is too much lead in the water supply. Lead poisoning is very damaging to the brain, in particular, all that rage and violent behavior.
I read somewhere that the majority of people labeled “mentally ill” in fact had some sort of physical ailment, ranging from un-diagnosed allergies to serious conditions like cancer, even broken bones that healed improperly. Many are in suppressed physical pain, which is enough to drive you nuts. One lady I knew in Ft. Lauderdale had hypoglycemia and instead got something like 18 shock treatments until she finally got the correct condition diagnosed.
A lot of these kids probably have physical problems which, if handled, would relieve a lot of their anguish.
Wow. Yeah, I can see that.
There’s probably a whole mix of contributing factors for all this crazy behavior. I think you’re right though, a lot of parents (who shouldn’t be parents), don’t know how to raise a kid and revert to pumping them full of psychiatric or other behavioral drugs.
Or even worse — adding psych drugs *on top* of an already lead-damaged brain. Then look what happens later in life. You get people wearing genitalia on their heads and torching businesses and attacking people for no good reason.
Didn’t they say lead poisoning was also a contributing factor to the downfall of the Roman Empire… but my history is lagging…
“Didn’t they say lead poisoning was also a contributing factor to the downfall of the Roman Empire… but my history is lagging…”
Some info on that here:
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/22546056/ns/health/t/suffering-beauty-has-ancient-roots/#.WUwvfZLyuzc
Rome wasn’t the only society to use lead in cosmetics.
Not talking to myself, just a followup link about the lead in the water. Flint isn’t even the worst one.. it’s everywhere…
From last year:
http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/usa-lead-testing/
There are other articles out there which describe the permanent impacts of lead on the brain, especially during childhood development. Hyper-aggressive behavior, etc. It just really messes you up, for life.
And that’s not all. Wait until all that depleted uranium that was weaponized catches up. I heard Serbia is suing NATO in the World Court over that issue.
https://www.rt.com/news/392126-serbia-lawsuit-nato-depleted-uranium/
Oh, dear, rt. Putin made NATO do it.
all that rage and violent behavior.
Dave?
dave’s not here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtDAK7Umk7A
‘The absorption rate (the share of apartments rented within three months after completion) was noticeably lower at 48% in the fourth quarter of 2016. In the fourth quarter of 2015, it was 55% and has not been below 50% since the fourth quarter of 2009′
This 2009 thing keeps coming up.
Or even earlier behavior. In case any of the joy boys missed it:
June 8, 2017
Lawsuit Describes Conduct Reminiscent Of 2004
A report from the Denver Post in Colorado. “Four ex-employees accuse Aurora-based American Financial Corp. in a lawsuit of firing them after trying to expose the company’s alleged mortgage fraud. The mortgage originator allegedly misled at least a half-dozen banks and finance companies with faked documents and consumer loan applications, according to the whistle-blower lawsuit. The action in Arapahoe County district court claims managers at the company knew of the alleged mortgage fraud the employees discovered and, in some cases, worked hard to try to cover it up.”
“The employees – Stacia and Chris Springer, Steffen Mehnert and Sandra Reynolds – say in the lawsuit that they were suspended and then fired after bringing their concerns to higher-ups in March 2017. Chris Springer, Mehnert and Reynolds were mortgage consultants, and Stacia Springer was a pre-qualification specialist. The company defended its track record in a statement issued to The Denver Post, saying it will defend itself ‘vigorously against this meritless lawsuit and the false allegations …’”
“The lawsuit describes conduct reminiscent of the type that helped bring about the real-estate collapse and ensuing financial crisis that began in 2004. Among the allegations the quartet make against American Financing include intentionally falsifying loan information, faking signatures, withholding negative financial information about an applicant and faking compliance with key deadlines – all of them critical to whether a bank will approve or buy an existing loan.”
“Some of the alleged fraud was brazen, including assertions that potential borrowers’ income tax returns were intentionally withheld to hide potentially adverse information, relying instead on their W-2 forms.”
“The 23-page lawsuit lays out a detailed timeline of how the employees each reported concerns of fraud to supervisors over several weeks, only to be told not to talk about it to others, or not to come to work at all. After their suspension, the lawsuit says company supervisors looked through the employees’ desks and computers, allegedly shredding paperwork that related to the suspected fraud.”
“The employees said they were fired in retaliation for talking to a lawyer about their predicament. The lawsuit says a complaint about the alleged mortgage fraud was filed with the Colorado Division of Regulatory Agencies, which oversees mortgage brokers through its division of real estate, but that nothing was done.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10110
You’re always taking the joy out of life.
This 2009 thing keeps coming up.
We’re lucky that it really is different this time.
check Zillow- the just changed DC area from +2 to -2.8
many other cities I checked have been marked down
BIGLY
“The good part about Miami is this huge international demand. The bad part about Miami is every time they [foreign buyers] come in, we also have developers coming in from Colombia and Argentina and they have these projects and we say, ‘Are they kidding? They don’t know the market.”
__________________________/
The Related Group has a project in Buenos Aires, in the Puerto Madero barrio, which is where Gov. Sanford enjoyed himself. It has been looking in Colombia, but Perez conceded in 2015 that he needed a local partner who knew the market. Interestingly, in the same article he also conceded that he was concerned about a real estate bubble (”una burbuja inmobiliaria”), although he allegedly was more concerned about the middle class having to move farther and farther away from cities to find affordable housing.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-related-group-and-sbe-expand-to-argentina-300261821.html
http://www.eltiempo.com/archivo/documento/CMS-16393627
package rooms with refrigerated storage for meal-delivery services.
Whoh, that’s actually a useful amenity. Evidently these meal services aren’t all that bad. I guess it’s what the annoying Millenials buy when they can’t afford to go out anymore.
Once her divorce went through, LilSis was able to begin enjoying the pleasure of gourmet meal services without the objections of ex-BIL to the high price tag.
‘What was one month [free rent when signing] last year is 1.5 or two months this year,’
If rental contracts are on a one year term, then what, if any, is the advantage of offering 1 or 1.5 months free rent over simply reducing the rent to keep annual rental payments at the equivalent amount?
Some apartment complexes do reduce the rent. That’s what my complex did. But reducing rent makes the second-year rate hike much sharper, which could drive renters away. As a result, the LL is constantly filling his units with one-year tenants. So on top of perpetually cheap rent he’s got the cost of short-term vacancy and constant apartment turnaround fixups.
And some of the more luxe complexes may not want to “dilute the brand,” so to speak, by advertising cheap rent. I believe there are high-end companies which chose to go out of business rather than walmart-ize their product. (things like wineries or watches? i guess)
“But reducing rent makes the second-year rate hike much sharper, which could drive renters away.”
Your argument relies on dumb, or at least misinformed, renters. I don’t claim we have run out of stupid people, but the notion that mass stupidity or ignorance is the primary driver of market activity seems questionable.
It’s been explained in some of the New York articles here. They are signing a lease at the higher amount so when the year is up - tada! It lowers the perception rents are down. It looks better to their lenders. The usual REIC baloney. IMO when you start seeing two months it’s significant. Somebody will then go 3 to get ahead of the 2’s. We’ve seen 6 months or 12 in Houston once. What’s going on behind the scenes is, these things are sitting empty for months and then they give away free rent. So these guys are out 50% maybe. I can see one month if the market’s a little soft or to speed up applications, but more than that and it’s just overpriced.
We just got our early commitment offers on renewing our lease that’s up in Sept. Have to reply by July 5th. The best monthly rate is on a 13 month renewal at $1485. That’s an increase of $8/mo.
That’s just the base rent, then they tack on the valet trash, water, and pet fee and it goes up $1573.
Month to month option is $1983 base rent.
That’s another thing that’s crazy about San Jose. When I went month to month in Colorado in the past it was less than 10% extra. San Jose is insane…something like 25%+ to go month to month.
“It looks better to their lenders.”
I figured there was some kind of fraud involved to hide falling rents. It brings to mind the practice of including new automobiles in the sale price and financial packaging of new homes in order to mask price declines.
When they try to sell the building they can report a higher rental rate?
When I was back in Norfolk looking at commercial spaces people were trying to offer 6 months free on multi-year leases. I assume they were going to try to sell the place to someone else citing the higher income rate.
gross out of the day
Children found in bug-ridden, feces-filled Daytona Beach apartment, police say
http://www.clickorlando.com/news/children-found-in-bug-invested-feces-filled-daytona-beach-apartment
“Six out of the seven least affordable metropolitan areas across the U.S. are in California. They are Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, San Diego, Riverside and Sacramento. ‘It’s getting harder and harder to live here,’ said David Shulman, a senior economist for the Anderson Forecast. ‘The state is running out of people who can afford the $3,500 per-month rents so those prices are beginning to fall…but if you look at the one-bedrooms for $1,500, those rents are continuing to go up.’”
LOL! Nothing an insanely expensive train running from nowhere to nowhere and faaaa-reee health care for all (including illegals) can’t cure.
So glad I got out of that asylum years ago. Theres gotta be something in the water there because there cannot be that many people born so dense.
Riverside? That armpit used to be considered the boondocks, the place you went to to get a cheap house. of course that’s now the desert, places like Victorville and beyond.
But Riverside is now expensive? Good gravy.
Rebrand as “quaint” (meaning, no feral yutes) and add 100K+. Some of the smaller towns feature less traffic and a better quality of life than some of the “trophy” coastal areas imo.
“But Riverside is now expensive? Good gravy.”
And according to Mighty Mike, this has nothing at all to do with Subprime Sam’s crazy low-interest rate, underwriting-lite, subprime-heavy, government-guaranteed affordable lending scheme.
I never made any such claim. Some parts of California have been expensive for 40 years. Over time, it’s spread to most of the state.
Two realtors have contacted me (Santa Clara county) and said it’s cooled off so quickly it’s like a switch is thrown, longer DOM and no back up offers. The other said low end of the housing market is very unstable–prices are going lower because inventory is going up.
Warning PDF!
https://blog.pacificunion.com/wp-content/uploads/May_17_ZIP.pdf
‘Appreciation in the Bay Area’
‘ZIP code analysis illustrates price changes for YTD 2017 vs. 2016 ranged from a decline of 35 percent to an increase of 53 percent.’
Here’s the pom-pom piece I got the PDF from:
https://blog.pacificunion.com/surging-demand-pushes-bay-area-home-prices-higher-in-may/
‘Selma Hepp is Pacific Union’s Chief Economist and Vice President of Business Intelligence. Her previous positions include Chief Economist at Trulia, senior economist for the California Association of Realtors, and economist and manager of public policy and homeownership at the National Association of Realtors. She holds a Master of Arts in Economics from the State University of New York (SUNY), Buffalo, and a Ph.D. in Urban and Regional Planning and Design from the University of Maryland.’
Interesting thanks. My coworker has their house on the market since last fall. It’s still for sale. They’re in Campbell which is not far from where the double digit price reductions are in your link. I forgot to add his wife is a real estate agent.
‘the double digit price reductions’
Selma would say depreciation in appreciation.
‘has their house on the market since last fall’
Selma says houses there sell in 10 days or less.
My coworker has their house on the market since last fall. It’s still for sale. They’re in Campbell which is not far from where the double digit price reductions are in your link. I forgot to add his wife is a real estate agent.
OK, so just south of Santana Row. Let me guess, they’re not giving it away? I’d be happy to commute from there for the right deal but I see zero smoking deals so far.
I am following the market for San Diego condos in 92101 and inventory increased from 223 to 238 in the last 30 days. Five percent in one month is not a trend, particularly in the summer, but I don’t think it has been above 225 for a long time.
“Americans are dying with and average of $61,500 in debt.”
I move that the decease’s body be removed from the morgue and the body be stripped of its parts and these parts be sold for cash and such cash obtained be turned over to the lenders to satisfy any and all outstanding debts.
No dollar shall be allowed to escape. Not one.
(bastards)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-22/americans-are-dying-average-61500-debt
My dad had a few bills when he died. A couple of credit cards, the bill for the ambulance ride, nothing huge. I called the banks and told them he wouldn’t be paying like they expected. They asked if “the estate” would be able to pay. I told them “the estate” didn’t have any money, but that I would give them my dad’s new address if they wanted to take it up with him in person.
Sorry Mr. Banker.
I don’t think the gov (deep state, CONgress) get how much they’ve discredited themselves. Consider these two gems that just popped up on my favorite aggregator:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-22/former-state-dept-and-cia-employee-arrested-charged-federal-espionage
Another freakin’ loser, caught passing secrets to China. Can’t even cover his own tracks. This is the best the CIA can do? Jeebus.
And here’s Comey paying a visit at the New York Times, just on the heels of Trump saying he doesn’t have any tapes:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-22/james-comey-visits-new-york-times
Look at him standing there like a knock-kneed overgrown kid. “I’m tellin’ Mom, I’m tellin’ Mom on you, Donald!”
This is the former director of the FBI. Think about that. Dear. lord.
Oh, and here’s the military inaction:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-22/navy-fails-shoot-down-simulated-icbm-test-new-weapon
USA! USA!
And don’t get me started on what he’s done to the MSM. Or what Congress has done to itself.
And these folks think they’re going de-legitimize Trump? Really? Who’s zoomin’ who?
Nope. I’m afraid Trump has performed the greatest. pantsing. ever. in US history. They thought to resist him, so he backed off, gave ‘em what they wanted, handed them all the rope, and they’ve all hung themselves in fine fashion. The Great Disruptor. Let ‘em have their way, and just tweeted a little.
Oh, gawd, wait, another incoming:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-22/wall-street-journal-abruptly-fires-chief-reporter-after-cia-arms-dealer-links-expose
“The Wall Street Journal insists Solomon forfeited their trust and that they were dismayed by his “poor judgement.”
Need any more rope, MSM? I think the Don has a few more coils handy.
It was a rotten house, with a rotten foundation. Too far gone to repair. Trump is the wrecking ball, and that’s what was needed. There will be a reformer, probably many. But it won’t be Trump. He knows this. He is, however, clearing the way for them.
In my humble experience, you don’t have to do much to disarm and discredit corruption. You only have to stand firm and not play by the crooked rules. The corrupt expose and defeat themselves with their gyrations when one will not play along. If, big if, you can stay on your feet.
He’s still standing. I must say, like in the campaign, I never know what he’s done (or not done) or why until after the fact. How much second-guessing has there been, how many bloviators and keyboard pounders who think they know what Trump should do or how he should do it? And to think, today I was all disgusted about his “praise” of Gary Cohn. Oh me of little faith.
Are you not entertained?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Of_jyeDZ3Sg
Layoffs set to begin next month at Carrier plant Trump struck deal with: report
BY BRANDON CARTER - 06/22/17 03:59 PM EDT
The Carrier plant in Indianapolis that President Trump convinced to stay open late last year will lay off more than 600 employees beginning next month, according to a new report Thursday.
CNBC reported that the deal struck by Trump before he assumed office isn’t working out as expected, and more than 600 employees will soon face layoffs.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/339036-layoffs-set-to-begin-next-month-at-carrier-plant-trump-struck-deal
Oh, dear, someone is a little angry and must have searched a while for a demoralizing morsel to post.
I think happy. Joy of mockery. The irony is mocking a beneficial enterprise.
It’s all in one’s point of view. Looks to me like teeth being ground to stumps and a bad case of TMJ, poor bugger.
I am entertained.
Let’s not be entertained by the piss ants.
The time for them honoring themselves is soon to be over.
Paraphrase from The Gladiator”.
No, I’m more and more entertained by the minute. Especially by the handy, dandy new “Trump Fail!” app, brought to you by a partnership of Googie, Flapple and Amazonedout. Fresh, hot off the presstitutes, bad news about Trump, delivered right to your device, even if you’re in mother’s basement. The perfect gift for your favorite butthurt bluenose.
There’s another industry that got pantsed. Think of it. The power to make people’s lives better, all the knowledge of the universe at your fingertips, and they best they can do is manipulate searches and nooz and cravenly serve the IC, with streaming music! Now that’s what I call innovation!
There’s nothing indicates anger. It didn’t require any searching to find it. It’s pretty big news and only about 5 hours old when I came across it.
“It didn’t require any searching to find it”
So how long have you been using the “Trump Fail!” app?
I’ve never heard of it. Is that a concept that you just came up with? Maybe you should find some software people and go into business.
Actually, though, you can probably just type Trump into a search engine to learn about new Trump failures and comedy every day.
This talk of demoralization is interesting. We may be on the road to some sort of authoritarian regime. Questioning the Great Leader is a major sin. It’s bad for the nation.
Come in off the ledge Mike, you don’t want to end up like her.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yLa2YAz2LI
Better version. Ooops, I said “Better”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwG-kDXk1sk
I hope this is not the case with you and your wife or Life Partner.
Kevin Churchill4 months ago
She has his ⚾🎱’s in her purse. 🌠
All banks passed their stress tests. Phew. I heard BoFA CEO Moynihan say, on an interview on Bloomberg radio some weeks ago, that this year’s submittal would likely be 100,000 pages. 34 banks were covered in this story. Probably a million pages or more. I’m sure the documentation was read thoroughly.
A million pages is about 10,000 pounds of paper, 5 tons.
Regulatory theater, nothing more.
(Warning: Auto-play audio)
Biggest Banks Clear Their First Hurdle in Fed’s Stress Tests
By Jesse Hamilton, Dakin Campbell, and Yalman Onaran
June 22, 2017
Bloomberg
Thirty-four of the largest banks operating in the U.S. cleared a Federal Reserve stress test of their ability to withstand economic shocks, showing firms are getting the hang of the once-dreaded reviews — a trend that may continue if the Trump administration dials them back.
Every bank subject to the annual tests’ first phase exceeded minimum thresholds, though Morgan Stanley trailed the rest of Wall Street on a key measure of leverage — the second year it performed worse than peers on one of the main metrics.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-22/biggest-banks-clear-their-first-hurdle-in-fed-s-stress-tests
Oh no, not Morgan Stanley. Say it isn’t so
One page is best, truth or lie.
I confess to having written a seven page technical argument once (with equations). Everyone in my group deferred to me, not because they feared my logic, they feared the reading of it.
Reminds me…I think it was Hawking that said when he was working on “A Brief History of Time” that his publisher told him that each equation would halve sales :-).
You’re right, it was Hawking, in the preface to the book. Hawking decided to include e=mC^2 anyway, figuring that everybody knew that one and so wouldn’t be scared off.
Most of those $100,000 stress test pages are probably raw calculations and will be read by nobody, not even the computer programs that generated the results.
I think it’s a good thing that the banks all passed their stress tests. That means they won’t be needing any gov money or bailouts, right?
These tests were a brilliant idea. If the banks lie to pass the test, they attract customers but discourage bailouts. If they lie to fail the test, they get bailouts but no customers. So the best option is to simply tell the truth and deal with the results.
So the best option is to simply tell the truth and deal with the results.
And the best option for those giving the test is to make it easy to pass since everything is about confidence.
No…really?
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-21/canada-s-housing-bubble-will-burst
Really, Janet? You’re just now figuring out this is a problem?
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/06/23/credit-card-losses-fed-bank-stress-test/
San Mateo, CA Rental Rates Dive 6% As Bay Area Housing Market Craters
https://www.zillow.com/san-mateo-ca/home-values/