It’s A Long Time Coming
A report from D Magazine in Texas. “‘Everyone’s talking about real estate right now,’ says Brady Moore, the founder of Laguna Residential, a realty firm that represents buyers and sellers of high-end properties in central Dallas. ‘This market has been so extraordinary that you can’t go to any kind of social event where someone isn’t asking what their neighbor’s house sold for. And everyone wants to know where prices are going to go next.’”
“But keep looking at the data, and a curious picture emerges. The number of houses changing hands is only slightly up overall from 2016. Plus, sales were actually down in the early part of this year in several previously hot places, including Southlake and East Dallas. In once-white-hot North Oak Cliff, prices declined 3 percent through April. Take homes in the 75214 ZIP code as one example. As of this spring, there were 10 percent more houses on the market in that area than there were at the same time a year ago.”
“While the increased supply is a nice change for buyers, for sellers it’s not yet working out. This spring, sales were down 27 percent on the year for the whole area, across all prices. Supply was up. Demand was down. And yet, that’s the scenario playing out in any number of neighborhoods and suburban cities across the area. ‘You can’t expect your house to sell in three days anymore,’ says agent Brady Moore. ‘That’s still happening, but we have more inventory now, and that’s not been great for my sellers, but it has been good for my buyers. And after these past few years, any sense of balance in this market is really appreciated.’”
The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “We’ve visited and revisited the De Guigne estate over the years, watching its drama unfold. Now, finally, the 16,000-square-foot mansion in Hillsborough has sold for $29.85 million, and at such a dramatic discount from its original list price of $100 million that this story’s end makes for good real-estate gossip.”
“De Guigne’s proposal ‘to subdivide the property into 25 single-family homes’ collapsed under pressure of the poor 2009 economy and vociferous opposition from neighbors and environmental groups. So, though the MLS write up for this now sold property boasts ‘potential to subdivide,’ it’s hard to know if new owners can actually do so. But then again, maybe new owners plan to keep all 47-plus acres and 16,000-square-feet of luxe to themselves.”
From Silicon Beat in California. “You’ve probably been reading about the latest round of record home prices in the Bay Area. A survey by the Pacific Union real estate company showed that all homes across the region rose in May to a median price of $860,000, up 7 percent year-over-year. What caught our eye about the Pacific Union survey was that it got down into the weeds in an unusual way. Specifically, it showed that certain ZIP codes throughout the region seemed to be defying the relentless upward rise in prices — in fact, homes in these ZIP codes had depreciated in value over the last year.”
“Selma Hepp, Pacific Union’s chief economist, had no trouble isolating 10 ZIP codes in those counties where single-family home values had actually dipped year-over-year, appreciably in some cases. Values tanked 20 percent in Santa Clara’s 95054 ZIP code, while Berkeley’s 94705 dropped 18 percent and Los Gatos’s 95030 fell 11 percent. Even in super-wealthy Atherton, values fell 2.0 percent in the exclusive 94027 ZIP.”
“But the more Hepp zoomed in with her microscope, the more it seemed as if these downward blips were anomalies, caused by month-to-month changes in the housing mix and hard-to-pin-down whims of the market. These suspicions were bolstered by conversations with several agents in the field. And underlying the overall discussion of depreciating ZIPs was this message: One month does not make a trend.”
From The Real Deal on New York. “For Hans Futterman, it was a dream defaulted. The developer assembled a vacant plot of land at Frederick Douglass Boulevard and West 122nd Street in Harlem over roughly four years, from 2011 to 2015. He then secured approvals to construct a 12-story, 127-unit residential building on the site, which offers 205,000 buildable square feet.”
“But in June of last year, Futterman, who declined to comment for this story, defaulted on a $36 million loan from RWN Real Estate Partners, and five months later his development firm filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The bankruptcy auction is now set for June 21. A source said Futterman pumped ‘his life savings’ into the project — and that he is still holding out hope to develop it himself. ‘This is the reality of the market today,’ said Cushman & Wakefield’s Bob Knakal, who is handling the bankruptcy auction with colleague Adam Spies. ‘Transactions are not going the way owners want.’”
“Indeed, the first signs of distress have emerged in several pockets of New York City’s commercial real estate market in recent months. Retail vacancies, declining hotel revenues and foreclosures on Park Avenue are among a flurry of indications that the market is inching closer to the brink of financial trouble. ‘There’s a lot more stress in the system than most people probably realize,’ said Iron Hound Management’s Robert Verrone, who added that his mortgage brokerage is handling more workouts nationally than ever before.”
“The influx of troubled loans is a product of the 2007 lending boom, and $90 billion in commercial mortgage backed-securities backed by properties across the country are set to mature this year. Sean Barrie of Trepp, which tracks CMBS, noted that the massive batch of loans was ‘underwritten pretty liberally,’ and now, many of those sponsors may face difficulty refinancing their over-leveraged assets.”
“Attorney Ray Hannigan, of Herrick Feinstein, who specializes in foreclosures and workouts, said the tri-state area is already seeing a substantial influx of those maturity defaults. There are more telling signs of distress in multifamily than landlords caving to concessions to fight vacancies. In the CMBS space, industry players are seeing loan defaults on multifamily properties, according to Hannigan. ‘You’ll see a lot of special servicers pursuing foreclosure and workouts of apartment complexes, and other types of properties, across the board,’ he said. ‘It’s a long time coming. The market needs to work through this latest cycle and weed out the good and the bad.’”
The Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman in Alaska. “It’s been nearly two months since I quit my last job – a great deal of which entailed covering the state legislature. As divided as our politics are, as lawmakers adopt the broken down car model that is Washington D.C., they were united back then in one refrain. Members of leadership from both caucuses in both chambers would assure me: ‘I’m absolutely confident we’ll figure out the budget within the 90-day time limit.’ I always chuckled privately. Every reporter knew it was either feigned optimism or delusion. The writing was on the wall.”
“As I passed Cheney Lake in East Anchorage, I noted how it was now day 152 of the 2017 legislative session. Day 62 passed that promised ‘come to Jesus’ moment where ideology gave way to stability and, you know, responsibility. I passed a few real estate signs. Then more. Then a moving truck. Then a staggering collection of both spanning the entire Anchorage Bowl. One after another. Sometimes, clusters of ‘for sale’ signs hung together at entryways to housing divisions.”
“This wasn’t the normal summer population turnover, when people rush to sell their houses and cars and pack their bags before the termination dust begins appearing on the Chugach Mountains. The vacancy rate in Anchorage has ballooned from a low of 1.8 percent in 2010 to 5.1 percent this year. Statewide, those numbers are 3.9 percent and 7.3 percent, respectively. A big, bad change is happening.”
“In Fairview, I rolled past more homes for sale. I saw another moving truck. I grunted to myself in frustration, remembering all the assurances I had been given, and knowing that the problem remains the income tax.”
“Seeing announcements posted to Facebook by friends and acquaintances accepting new jobs out of state have become a daily exercise. As frequent as similar posts documenting concern and panic after being notified that their jobs were in jeopardy. Do they put the house on the market now? How are they going to make their mortgage payments? Meanwhile, the signs keep going up and the trucks keep getting filled. The future is not looking good.”
The D Magazine article is worth reading (check out all the houses they are throwing up!)
The reader who sent this in added this:
‘Could be a blip in the data, but this article is finally saying what we’ve noticed on the ground: price reductions and more days on the market. Houses in “Sold out” developments are quietly listed (no yard signs).’
The Real Deal piece is excellent and covers a lot of ground. It’s dated June 1st, but I think it should be July 1st, because I’m not the one who caught it for the first time today. They do a month thing dated the first of each month.
A friend of mine lived in Dallas about 20 years ago; back then, he said that Oak Cliff was a rough and dangerous neighborhood. True? How and when did it get “white-hot”?
He was likely talking about South Oak Cliff, which can be rough. The northern part however was mostly ok and started re-gentrifying 10 years ago or so.
North Oak Cliff is just west of downtown Dallas and was a pretty tony area complete with cable cars, etc back in the 40’s - 50’s. There are some cool old victorians and a very nice area, Kessler Park, there as well.
Areas that gentrify during hot markets can easily regress into slums when the market cools.
Dallas crash will probably be two-fold. The price of homes has skyrocketed the last number of years to unsustainable levels, and now we’ve got a high-end luxury apartment building boom to boot. Building a boatload of units that no one can afford to rent. I haven’t seen this many cranes since the last collapse.
Omg my nephew just recently became a mortgage writer in Dallas.
‘But the more Hepp zoomed in with her microscope, the more it seemed as if these downward blips were anomalies, caused by month-to-month changes in the housing mix and hard-to-pin-down whims of the market’
Oh no! The MIX!! Why do they only mention the mix when prices are down?
Selma is very objective though. For instance when she first put this out (which I posted here the other day) she couldn’t even bring herself to say prices had declined. Here’s the link, again no mention of declines:
https://blog.pacificunion.com/surging-demand-pushes-bay-area-home-prices-higher-in-may/
Ah, but the PDF:
https://blog.pacificunion.com/wp-content/uploads/May_17_ZIP.pdf
Page two:
‘Where Appreciation Rates Declined - Six ZIP codes in SF, four in
San Mateo, five in Santa Clara, and four in Contra Costa’
And they call it depreciation! Come on Selma, mouth the words: de-cline, fa-all, do-own. Or text it out: UB a FB.
‘friends and acquaintances accepting new jobs out of state have become a daily exercise. As frequent as similar posts documenting concern and panic after being notified that their jobs were in jeopardy. Do they put the house on the market now? How are they going to make their mortgage payments?’
As Rental Watch says, the loans are probably OK.
Hot Anchorage home market drives prices up to average $347,000 …
https://www.adn.com/economy/article/hot-anchorage-home-market…prices…/10/
Jan 9, 2014 - Anchorage’s real estate market is more competitive than ever…
‘Anchorage, Alaska, The income per capita is $36,508, which includes all adults and children. The median household income is $78,121.’
It’s the government loan cap curse:
‘Alaska jumbo and FHA loan limits by county’
‘County GSE 1-unit limit FHA 1-unit limit
Aleutians East $636,150 $275,665
Aleutians West $636,150 $385,250
Anchorage $636,150 $396,750
Bethel $636,150 $275,665
Bristol Bay $636,150 $313,950
Denali $636,150 $297,850
Dillingham $636,150 $275,665
Fairbanks North $636,150 $275,665
Haines $636,150 $284,050
Hoonah-Angoon C $636,150 $281,750
Juneau $636,150 $425,500
Kenai Peninsula $636,150 $275,665
Ketchikan Gatew $636,150 $325,450
Kodiak Island $636,150 $381,800
Kusilvak Census Area $636,150 $275,665
Lake And Penins $636,150 $275,665
Matanuska-Susit $636,150 $396,750
Nome $636,150 $353,050
North Slope $636,150 $332,350
Northwest Arcti $636,150 $275,665
Petersburg Cens $636,150 $332,350
Prince Of Wales $636,150 $275,665
Sitka $636,150 $451,950
Skagway Municip $636,150 $415,150
Southeast Fairb $636,150 $275,665
Valdez-Cordova $636,150 $293,250
Wrangell City A $636,150 $332,350
Yakutat City $636,150 $420,900
Yukon-Koyukuk $636,150 $275,665′
http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/alaska-jumbo-loan-limits-by-county.aspx
Isn’t it interesting that the shack prices always magically drift up to these caps?
Over $600K to own a home in a frozen wasteland? Yegads!
Only a couple of hours of daylight in the winter months, and that’s way south on the horizon.
Yeah, Alaska prices make no sense whatsoever. There is so much land it should be about free, and the climate is inhospitable to most.
Never said that with respect to SFH…only MFH. Don’t put words in my mouth.
‘only MFH’
It’s crow time!
‘foreclosures on Park Avenue are among a flurry of indications that the market is inching closer to the brink of financial trouble. ‘There’s a lot more stress in the system than most people probably realize,’ said Iron Hound Management’s Robert Verrone, who added that his mortgage brokerage is handling more workouts nationally than ever before.’
‘The influx of troubled loans is a product of the 2007 lending boom, and $90 billion in commercial mortgage backed-securities backed by properties across the country are set to mature this year. Sean Barrie of Trepp, which tracks CMBS, noted that the massive batch of loans was ‘underwritten pretty liberally,’ and now, many of those sponsors may face difficulty refinancing their over-leveraged assets.’
‘Attorney Ray Hannigan, of Herrick Feinstein, who specializes in foreclosures and workouts, said the tri-state area is already seeing a substantial influx of those maturity defaults. There are more telling signs of distress in multifamily than landlords caving to concessions to fight vacancies. In the CMBS space, industry players are seeing loan defaults on multifamily properties, according to Hannigan. ‘You’ll see a lot of special servicers pursuing foreclosure and workouts of apartment complexes, and other types of properties, across the board,’ he said.’
So, you’re trying to say “gotcha” on my comment about MF loans made today based on maturity defaults from 2007 vintage loans?
The fact is that these loans have made their payments for 10 years, but have too much debt to refinance in today’s lending environment (which is obviously more conservative than in 2007…or else there wouldn’t be a problem with maturity defaults).
These guys were paying way more 2014-2016 than 2007. You may have read it here: $200k-600k per door, sometimes for a 30 year old apartment. Yeah, they’ll perform better than something that cost 50% less. Of course all of the geniuses were refinancing like crazy so most of them are walking dead.
They are paying more, but must be borrowing less…or else something is amiss with reports of multi-family maturity defaults from 2007 vintage loans.
In other words, if the values are higher than 2007, AND apartment owners are borrowing at debt levels at least on par with 2007, why are there maturity defaults?
Watching RW walking backwards is priceless.
What’s funny is that the existence of maturity defaults from 2007 vintage multi-family loans proves my point. And you don’t seem to understand that.
And many green handshakes.
‘the existence of maturity defaults from 2007 vintage multi-family loans proves my point’
Did you notice the first guy was a current developer? Did you notice the article was saying NYC RE is in distress? We’re just getting started.
As I’ve said before (and I’ll say again)…unlike the bubble years, this time around overbuilding has occurred in some locations, but not broadly.
We were building more than 2MM homes per year then. Places like Stockton were BOOMING.
This time around, we are building 1.2MM homes per year. Places like SF, LA, and NY have seen WAY more than their fair share of this 1.2MM…and will suffer for it.
Non-prime locations are still adding supply at far below historic averages.
——–
My point above however holds…maturity defaults on 2007 vintages should speak to you about how apartments are being underwritten today.
I may eat crow, but I suspect you’ll be trying to serve the crow after I’ve changed my tune…I’m still waiting for new home starts to exceed 1.5MM or 1.6MM before the real warning bells should go off.
“‘Investment bubbles and high animal spirits do not materialize out of thin air. They need extremely favorable economic fundamentals together with free and easy, cheap credit, and they need it for at least two or three years. Importantly, they also need serial pleasant surprises in such critical variables as global GNP growth. Bubbles have quite a few things in common, but housing bubbles have a spectacular thing in common, and that is every one of them is considered unique and different.’ — Jeremy Grantham.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10126
“Importantly, they also need serial pleasant surprises in such critical variables as global GNP growth.”
Importantly, an orchestrated flood of quantitative easing is effective in unleashing a sudden spurt of unsustainably high global GNP growth along with facilitating the free and easy, cheap credit that enables asset prices to bubble.
Latest data from Bureau of Labor Statistics shows Anchorage Metro employment down 2.4% year over year, and Alaska as a whole down 2.2%. The only state worse off is Wyoming, where the number of people employed has fallen 2.3%. Even poor Puerto Rico is only off 1.1%.
This is a count of the number of people employed, so I expect it would be an excellent predictor of the direction of real estate prices.
Of course if these places had a lot of in-migration from retirees, it could offset the downward pressure on home prices, but last time I checked, not that many retire to Alaska (the HGTV show “Living Alaska” aside).
Raindrops in the desert with 100 million unemployed.
Eric B & Rakim — Paid In Full (1987):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVPZX7MPQIw
Don’t be that sh*tty subcontractor that can’t pay its employees…
“Don’t be that sh*tty subcontractor that can’t pay its employees…”
There are cures for that legal and otherwise.
Here is a legal one.
HOW TO FILE A MECHANICS LIEN IN COLORADO
May 15, 2017Mechanics Lien
Mechanics Lien: Regardless of whether you’re the prime contractor, a subcontractor, or a material supplier, your mechanics lien must be filed within 4 months, or 120 days, of the last date you performed labor or delivered materials. This timeframe is shortened to 2 months if you only provided labor.
http://mechanicslien.com/how-to-file-a-mechanics-lien-in-colorado/
It isn’t as though there is no demand for housing in New York at a price people can afford, and commercial space in New York at a price businesses can afford.
Developers paid too much for the land. Buyers paid too much for the buildings. And we’ve all been screwed by another bubble.
‘There’s a lot more stress in the system than most people probably realize,’ said Iron Hound Management’s Robert Verrone, who added that his mortgage brokerage is handling more workouts nationally than ever before.”
You don’t say. And why might that be? Could it be because the lying sack of crap media hides, obfuscates, cheerleads and downright lies about stuff? So how would people know just how much stress there is in the system?
So how would people know just how much stress there is in the system?
Most of the sheeple have a vague uneasy sensation that something is amiss, but they lack the intelligence to grasp the full magnitude of just how FUBAR the system really is.
I think all of us lack the intelligence to some extent.to compfr
Even the smartest of those here on HBB (and that’s certainly not I) can get blindsided; the numbers are too gargantuan and playing field too massive to comprehend.
It’s kinda like the notion of an ever-expanding universe. Intellectually, not hard to grasp. In practicality, quite difficult to fathom.
‘handling more workouts nationally than ever before’
Ahem.
“The vacancy rate in Anchorage has ballooned from a low of 1.8 percent in 2010 to 5.1 percent this year. Statewide, those numbers are 3.9 percent and 7.3 percent, respectively. A big, bad change is happening.”
Which brings to mind Russ’s description of Anchorage a while back. Sounded like a really depressing place to be. And with the downturn in oil, I’ll bet those payments that Alaska residents get just for being there are declining.
It’s nice in the summer, all 2 and a half months of it. Income can’t be gauged like the lower 48. A piddling little onion costs a lot. Heat costs. What people have left over can’t come to much. If you lose your job, it isn’t like there are a ton of places to apply.
“It’s nice in the summer, all 2 and a half months of it.”
What about the miskeeters? Never been there, but I heard that it would be nice in the summer if it weren’t for the miskeeters.
Just now saw this:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-26/trumps-anwr-move-could-spawn-epic-oil-natural-gas-battle
Looks like someone wants to drill, baby, drill in Alaska.
Jeebus, Trump, lousy timing. Bleed off Yellowstone, fer cripes sake.
Let’s really drive those prices down. ANWR would take a decade to bring online and I doubt it could compete.
Just how feasible is it to “bleed off” Yellowstone? I really doubt digging a few wells would do the task. just how much magma would have to be bled off to stabilize it?
Are there any geological studies that cover what such an endeavor would take?
Well, y’know, you’d have to consult with the folks in Iceland, they seem to have considerable experience with geothermal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_power_in_Iceland
Five geothermal plants. Not too shabby.
Finland is exploring geothermal.
http://geothermalresourcescouncil.blogspot.com/2017/05/finland-geothermal.html
I dunno, it would beat the pants off of Krakatoa east of Boise. Just sayin’. If we have the resource, we should use the resource.
Geothermal isn’t “bleed off”. It’s water heated underground. The magma pressure is still there.
To “bleed off” would involve providing the magma a way out before it erupts. Keep in mind the magnitude of energy we’re talking about here, as in hundreds of H bombs. Bleeding off would essentially be a controlled eruption. To my knowledge there is no technology that can do that.
That said, I’ll bet Yellowstone could produce unbelievable amounts of geothermal power. But since it’s a national park that won’t be happening.
“Bleeding off would essentially be a controlled eruption.”
Couldn’t we just sort of ooze it out? And use it for building material or something? LOL, clearly, I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed when it comes to geology, but I do find it fascinating.
“That said, I’ll bet Yellowstone could produce unbelievable amounts of geothermal power.”
I think I read it could power something like 80% of the US. Of course, we here in Florida would be out of that loop.
“But since it’s a national park that won’t be happening.”
Yeah. Krakatoa east of Boise.
But since it’s a national park that won’t be happening
The fact that it’s in a national park doesn’t necessarily preclude it from being developed. Mammoth Lakes already has a geothermal plant.
https://www.nps.gov/subjects/renewableenergy/geothermal.htm
Couldn’t we just sort of ooze it out?
I don’t think so, because of the pressure. It would be like trying to deflate a balloon with a pin. If you dug a well, it would have to be able to handle enormous pressure, not to mention the heat of the magma. Most likely the well would be overwhelmed and you would end up with an eruption of your own making as the well comes apart.
There is a way to deflate a balloon with a pin: you place some scotch tape on the balloon and prick it where the tape is. The tape keeps the pin prick from tearing and popping the balloon.
So we would have to do something similar with a volcano. If there was a way to do that, I suspect that someone would have done it already.
Thanks, Colorado. That is very interesting.
Damn you’re smart!
“…just how much magma would have to be bled off to stabilize it?”
Crazy talk, and we are destined to hear a lot more over the next 3 1/2 years.
I was north of there for a week fishing years ago. It never really got dark. I heard that in the winter it never really gets light. Drinking in excess is said to be common.
Booze is expensive.
From AmazingRuss’s post:
“I won’t start about the quality of medical care, but I will say that if anyone tells you they are going to retire up here, you should start slapping them, and continue slapping them, until you slap that idiotic idea out of their skull.
Anchorage - 1 out of 5 stars. Just don’t.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9589
Redwood City, CA Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY As Bay Area Market Implodes
https://blog.pacificunion.com/wp-content/uploads/May_17_ZIP.pdf
‘This market has been so extraordinary that you can’t go to any kind of social event where someone isn’t asking what their neighbor’s house sold for. And everyone wants to know where prices are going to go next.’”
In the not-to-distant future they’ll be passing the paper bag that holds the bottle as they hang out around the trash-can fire and ask each other how much they lost when the Fed’s asset bubbles imploded and they walked away from their “investment.”
‘Supply was up. Demand was down. And yet, that’s the scenario playing out in any number of neighborhoods and suburban cities across the area. ‘You can’t expect your house to sell in three days anymore’
That’s the ticket Brady, get em warmed up slow. Next, a bit more let down like the Australian piece earlier. Then the guilt trip: don’t be greedy! Fear: a disappointing price today may be tomorrows great escape!
Then Brady becomes an REO specialist foreclosing on his former clients for Fannie Mae, arraigning to haul their junk to the dump, getting paid to sell it for pennies on the dollar. You know what’s really funny? The builders are already undercutting their recent clients. That’s when the SHTF.
It ain’t happening. Even Rick Santelli on CNBC seems to have cooled down. Price fix has been established
Now, finally, the 16,000-square-foot mansion in Hillsborough has sold for $29.85 million, and at such a dramatic discount from its original list price of $100 million that this story’s end makes for good real-estate gossip.”
Methinks the deep discounting isn’t over yet for this gaudy monstrosity. The story’s ultimate end will make for some good schadenfreude and cautionary tales.
‘This is the reality of the market today,’ said Cushman & Wakefield’s Bob Knakal, who is handling the bankruptcy auction with colleague Adam Spies. ‘Transactions are not going the way owners want.’”
These greedhead sellers ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.
I imagine that it would take a staff of thirty or more to regularly clear the spider webs and acres of foliage… not many qualified buyers.
A big, bad change is happening.”
Au contraire. Sanity is finally imposing itself on the Fed’s asset bubbles and Ponzi markets.
A wonderful change is coming. The prudent and responsible who refused to join the herd creatures who rushed headlong into the housing bubble are going to be picking up some sweet deals at liquidation auctions.
“‘Everyone’s talking about real estate right now,’ says Brady Moore, the founder of Laguna Residential, a realty firm that represents buyers and sellers of high-end properties in central Dallas. ‘This market has been so extraordinary that you can’t go to any kind of social event where someone isn’t asking what their neighbor’s house sold for. And everyone wants to know where prices are going to go next.’”
What used to be a stable market where prices reflected value has been turned into one of the greatest speculative manias in the history of mankind.
Sad.
O.T. but humorous…
This is why millennials can’t have nice things (or save any money)
Published: June 26, 2017 1:43 p.m. ET
Avocado toast is the least of young Americans’ worries
Getty Images
Maybe skip the starter and the entree.
By Quentin Fottrell
Personal Finance Editor
Minor expenses can cause major financial problems.
“Millennials are falling victim to common financial vices, such as spending money in coffee shops,” according to a new study by personal-finance site Bankrate.com. The average millennial dines at a restaurant or buys take-out food five times per week and nearly 30% of this age goup say they buy coffee at least three times per week. More than half of millennials (54%) eat out at least three times a week, compared to roughly one-third of Generation X-ers and baby boomers.
“Often, it’s the minor, habitual expenses, such as take-out and alcohol, that wreak havoc on your budget,” Sarah Berger, a financial analyst at Bankrate, said. “Preparing meals at home and brewing your own coffee can add up to big savings.” Some 59% of all age groups say they don’t purchase any brewed coffee or tea in a typical week and 40% say they buy take-out or dine at a restaurant no more than once per week. But that doesn’t mean they’re all cooking at home.
…
No one could have seen cryptocoin Armageddon coming!
The Wall Street Journal
Ethereum plunges 24% as cryptocurrencies hit by massive selloff
By Paul Vigna
Published: June 26, 2017 6:43 p.m. ET
38 of the 40 top digital currencies, including bitcoin, down
…
“40 top digital currencies…”
Ironically, the true believers in bitcoin pounded their chests about how limited the supply was.
All of the physical gold ever mined amounts to a few hundred tons. THAT is a finite (and becoming more scarce and hard to extract) resource. A make-believe scam currency “mined” from computers, on the other hand, will never be limited.
Bitcoin is only as good as the nearest power plant. Or even the farthest power plant. Even UPSs fail. And even if you keep your bitcoin intact with, say, solar panels, you’d better hope the guys who buy your bitcoin have solar panels too.
Not as good as the nearest power plant, as power failure is only one of many risks for cryptocurrency to fail, along with potential unlimited competition from new entrants and outright fraud.
According to zerohedge back in March 2013, world gold mined amounted to 166,500 tonnes
A scam “cryptocurrency” created out of 0s and 1s crashing? Surely no one could’ve seen this coming.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/26/ethereum-drops-more-than-10-percent-even-after-flash-crash-refund.html
It is a Keynesian Beauty Contest, like much of financial asset trading is.
This Keynesian Beauty Contest will eventually end with a replay of the tale of the Emperor’s New Clothes.
Oh dear….
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-27/hong-kong-small-cap-collapse-wipes-out-5-1-billion-this-morning
The Fed’s recent tiny interest hike has seemingly triggered any number of financial earthquakes around the asset market firmament. And apparently they are one-and-done already for 2017.
Makes one wonder how bad the selloffs will get if the Fed and friends ever get serious about draining the punch bowl.
Got popcorn?
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/06/26/mortgage-demand-cools-fannie-mae/
“Zimbabwe Ben” Bernanke, who along with Yellen the Felon and their “No Billionaire Left Behind” monetary policies has done more than anyone on the planet to concentrate all wealth and power into the hands of a corrupt and venal oligarchy at the expense of everyone else, now says economists must “address populist frustrations.”
No, Ben. You need to STFU and go away until such time as a post-collapse tribunal hauls you and the rest of the Wall Street-Federal Reserve Looting Syndicate principal members in front of an honest judge to finally answer for your role in destroying the productive economy and pillaging the middle and working classes.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/26/bernanke-economists-totally-missed-trumps-populist-uprising-but-now-we-need-to-help.html
It’s starting to look like the housing bubble has peaked.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-27/case-shiller-home-price-growth-slows-san-francisco-bubble-continues-deflate
Unpossible! People suddenly stopped looking for shelters? They are gonna stay homeless?
As in the US, government meddling in housing markets and “assistance” to home buyers is only going to make the ultimate housing bubble crash that much worse.
https://www.domain.com.au/news/sydney-prices-to-jump-overnight-as-firsthome-incentives-kick-in-experts-20170624-gwubss/
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/96079534_zpid/priced_sort/34.320755,-118.778859,34.193203,-118.889924_rect/12_zm/
Slide 6 the water boarding area ?
Looks more like the firing squad area. “Be transported to the South of France?” Sure, it looks like Cardinal Richelieu’s summer home. Yikes.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/06/20/tesla-car-battery-production-releases-as-much-co2-as-8-years-of-gasoline-driving/
Tesla car battery production releases as much CO2 as 8 years of gasoline driving
so does making a new car
100,000,000 btus
or $8000 of gas
Fortunately you can easily get 20+ years out of a car these days, unless you live in Europe, where onerous .gov inspections and the ridiculous and costly “must fix” lists they produce all but guarantee that a perfectly good 10 year old car will wind up in the junk yard as it isn’t cost effective to pass the test.
eu=pu
they sue any us co that’s successful
wife wants to visit in Manchester
allah achbarians
ZHI is not me or even close to being me. He(she,it) is using another in a of a long string of alias handles desiged to confuse issues and sources. Respectfully, long time HBB user, Hi-Z.
Yup. He’s currently posting as “Living in your head”, among other monikers.
“Ralph Lauren announced it would be closing its 39,000 square-foot flagship store at 711 Fifth Avenue. The retailer will continue to pay a whopping $70,000 per day in rent as part of the lease which expires in 2029….”
Yeah, I know it’s Manhattan, but, how many shirts and ties and….
What’s twelve more years between friends ? $300 million more and you are free and clear of the lease.
Sigh, Ralph. Iconic American designer with a vision he tried to incorporate into his duds for both men and women. Unfortunately, the crassness of globalism deep-sixed his line. I got a Chaps sweatshirt and a jacket that wear like iron.
If he’s shuttering his flagship store in NY, he knows which way the wind is blowing. Dressing FLOTUS for the inauguration was his final class act.
Ralph Lauren announced it would be closing its 39,000 square-foot
http://harlembee.com/distressed-properties-nyc-nyc-retail-real-estate/
“There’s a lot more stress in the system than most people probably realize,” said Iron Hound Management’s Robert Verrone, who added that his mortgage brokerage is handling more workouts nationally than ever before.
“Anyone claiming that America’s economy is in decline is peddling fiction.” —former President Obama
“Hans Futterman, the developer, assembled a vacant plot of land at Frederick Douglass Boulevard and West 122nd Street in Harlem from 2011 to 2015. He secured approvals to construct a …127-unit residential building …defaulted on a $36 million loan ….”
First up:
****Recently Hoffman sold his triplex home in Harlem for $1.7 million. It’s Harlem. Does money want to live in Harlem?
****He has to sell units NOW, at 283K, to cover his investment. Are we permitted to factor in modest cost overruns and delays?
There’s leverage and there is stupidity.
Hey, the next time you are in Manhattan let me show you the sights in Harlem.
When you combine leverage with stupidity the results can be …
… quite fun. 😆
Bahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Let me guess… a Frederick Douglass Boulevard is about as gentrified as a Martin Luther King Boulevard?
Hey Donk.
Hi hon.
Fetch me another bag of Cheetos. And don’t forget the beer.
‘Toronto home sales down 44% for first half of June’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byeY4CwUNh4
Tales of woe.
Home Capital stock, after a brief dead cat bounce, is starting to tank again.
(BTW, dead cats don’t actually bounce. Don’t ask me how I know this.)
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/HCG:CN
Wow. Buyers responsible for damages and sellers costs when backing out.
Don’t look now RW.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-27/case-shiller-home-price-growth-slows-san-francisco-bubble-continues-deflate
Case-Shiller Home Price Growth Slows As San Francisco Bubble Continues To Deflate
Deflation = price declines…we aren’t seeing that…yet.
eat your first few servings of crow before ordering more.
No price declines, just evaporations.
Now you see it, now you don’t. For something to have a price that is subject to a decline it has to continue to exist.
“How much is this?”
“Thirty-four ninety-nine.”
“The store down the street used to sell them for thirty dollars even.”
“Then why don’t you buy from them?”
“They went out of business last month.”
“Well I’ll you what, when I go out of business I’ll drop the price to thirty dollars even, just for you.”
Oh dear…this looks a bit like a falling domino.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-27/-enigma-network-roils-hong-kong-markets-with-sudden-90-losses
With others racked & stacked right behind it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-26/china-debt-squeeze-has-moody-s-awaiting-first-ever-local-default
Ben, do you think you could see your way clear to bring back ABQ Dan just long enough for us to offer him more crow cuisine suggestions?
No one comes back from the ban.
Who is stopping you from offering crow culinary advice? You know that ABQDan is reading here daily and stewing…
Three Crow Recipes
From Debbie, courtesy of her Mom’s WW II cookbook
Crow and Mushroom Stew
…
Potted Crow:
…
Crow Pie:
…
Six weeks ago David Webb puts out a warning (SELL) signal. Notice it gives smart money time to unwind positions. Then a Japanese reporter describes the HK hit. Webb is an old hand at this game.
Last week I got a thirty-year SELL signal for the U.S. market.
At the end of the cycle big caps mast the damage occurring below.
Patience.
Yellen assures us we will not have another financial crisis in our lifetime.
Given the Fed’s epic incompetence when it comes to economic forecasts, I’m going to take that to mean sell everything and head for the hills.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-27/yellen-i-dont-believe-we-will-see-another-crisis-our-lifetime
Might she have meant over the lifetime of her tenure at the Fed? I’ve noticed financial earthquakes tend to be far more prevalent at times of Fed chair transition. Perhaps my sample is biased having just started working in the financial sector shortly after Alan Greenspan took over at the Fed and just a few months before Black Monday. It was awesome to see the ashen looks on heavily-invested (aka -gambled) colleagues’ faces as the stock market dropped 500 points in one day.
Looks like Da Boyz are trying to convince the sheeple the bubble has another year to run, while they cash out of the Ponzi and stealthily exit the pump & dump.
http://www.businessinsider.com/former-lehman-brothers-bets-bubble-will-pop-in-a-year-2017-6
Bull markets end with eighteen month long “plateaus of distribution.”
It can run another ten percent for a year, as well. That doesn’t bother me.
Rahzel — All I Know:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPy48X97X4E
This guy is from the Roots, and he plays theme and background and commercial breaks on some late night comedy TeeVee show. But I don’t watch much TeeVee, so I haven’t seen him on that show…
“Realtor Steals $400K From Wilton Home, Tries To Auction Items: PD”
http://www.theridgefieldpress.com/90230/ridgefield-realtor-accused-of-stealing-from-wilton-homeowner-update/
How is a Stealtor stealing even considered newsworthy? Seems like business as usual.
Wow, I just watched a press briefing with Sarah Huckabee Sanders. I am officially a fan. A very poised, articulate woman and did she ever handle a room full of butt-hurt journalists smarting from a major shaming courtesy of CNN. Hope to see more of her. Reminds me of Marie Osmond a little.
U.S. Stocks Sink Most Since May, Treasuries Slide: Markets Wrap
By Jeremy Herron and Dani Burger
June 27, 2017, 12:11 AM GMT+2 June 27, 2017, 11:06 PM GMT+2
Tech shares led losses as health-care vote delayed again
IMF cuts growth forecast for U.S. on policy uncertainty
Yellen Says Rate Hikes on Track Amid ‘Rich’ Asset Prices
U.S. equities fell the most in six weeks and a measure of market volatility spiked higher as investors grew uneasy amid a global cyberattack and a fresh setback to the Republican agenda in Washington. Treasuries plunged as Janet Yellen signaled the economy is robust enough to withstand higher interest rates.
The Nasdaq 100 Index fell more than 1.7 percent to its lowest level since May 19, as investors continue to punish some of the year’s highest flyers and Alphabet Inc. got hit with a record antitrust fine in Europe. Selling accelerated as the Federal Reserve chair said some financial assets had become “somewhat rich” and Senate Republicans delayed a vote on health-care reform in a fresh hit to the Trump administration’s policy agenda, fueling speculation tax cuts and regulatory rollbacks may also take longer than anticipated.
“Market participants may view health care legislation as stalling a move on taxes that could include a repatriation tax holiday,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab Corp.’s chief global strategist.
Yellen’s comments that the Fed remains on track to tighten even as economic data continues to fall short of estimates sent Treasury 10-year yields to the highest in two weeks. Financial shares advanced, but not enough to save the S&P 500 Index from its worst drop in six weeks. The CBOE Volatility Index jumped 12 percent. Yellen couldn’t boost the dollar though, as the greenback retreated to the lowest level in 10 months versus the euro after Mario Draghi said inflation in the region wouldn’t remain low.
…
From the Real Deal article:
Retail is a disaster in New York City,” one source said on the condition of anonymity. While part of that situation is due to the continual rise of online retailers, “another part of it is people are too greedy,” the source added in reference to landlords seeking steep rents.
I’ve seen a lot of this from landlords. They see other rents rising and they do the same because it’s the “new normal”. Little thought seems to be given to how much the market can sustain. Greed is contagious.
MarketWatch dot com
Oil prices fall as sources say API data show an unexpected rise in U.S. crude supply
By Myra P. Saefong
Published: June 27, 2017 4:45 p.m. ET
The American Petroleum Institute reported Tuesday a climb of 851,000 barrels in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended June 23, according to sources. The market was generally expecting a decline in weekly crude inventories as Tropical Storm Cindy disrupted production in the Gulf of Mexico last week. The API data also showed a rise of 1.4 million barrels in gasoline supplies, while inventories of distillates were up 678,000 barrels, sources said.
…
“But the more Hepp zoomed in with her microscope, the more it seemed as if these downward blips were anomalies, caused by month-to-month changes in the housing mix and hard-to-pin-down whims of the market. These suspicions were bolstered by conversations with several agents in the field. And underlying the overall discussion of depreciating ZIPs was this message: One month does not make a trend.”
Rising prices are always part of a ubiquitous, unstoppable trend. Falling prices are a soon-to-be reversed local anomaly because it’s different in times and places where prices are falling.
We owe the Fed a collective debt of gratitude for the falling fuel prices their policies have precipitated. As has been often noted here, nothing fuels economic growth and prosperity like falling consumer goods prices to dramatically lower depths of affordability.
MarketWatch dot com
Commodities Corner
Drivers may pay the lowest July 4th gasoline prices in 12 years
By Myra P. Saefong
Published: June 27, 2017 1:00 p.m. ET
Fourth of July price is also expected to be lower than New Year’s Day for first time on record
U.S. drivers may have more reason to celebrate this Fourth of July holiday.
Drivers are set to pay the lowest Independence Day price for gasoline since 2005 — and for the first time on record, the Fourth of July holiday per-gallon cost will run below the price from New Year’s Day, according to GasBuddy.
Motorists on the road for the Fourth of July holiday weekend are expected to pay an average of $2.21 a gallon for gasoline, well below the 10-year average of $3.14, the retail fuel-pricing-information provider said on Tuesday. It pegged prices on Tuesday afternoon at $2.253 a gallon.
“Perhaps we can finally get rid of the myth that gas prices go up for the holiday,” said Patrick DeHaan, senior petroleum analyst at GasBuddy. “This is like Christmas in July, instead of seeing fireworks at the pumps like we saw just a few short years ago.”
GasBuddy, meanwhile, also pointed out that the national average price is set to be lower by roughly 12 cents a gallon on Fourth of July than it was on New Year’s Day. That would mark the first-ever price decline between the two holidays, based records going back to the year 2000.
…