July 10, 2017

We Were All In It To Win It

A report from the Orange Country Register in California. “Apartment buildings are a hot commodity in Southern California these days, with transactions tripling since the recession and sale prices steadily climbing. In many cases, new ownership can be a blessing, bringing upgrades, renovations and new amenities, like fitness centers, storage, dog parks and barbecues. But often, they’re a curse, with rents tending to go up once a complex changes hands. ‘On a risk-adjusted basis, (the apartment sector) is the best asset in real estate,’ Douglas Bibby, president of the National Multifamily Housing Council, said during a break at the state builders conference in San Diego last month.”

“With higher prices come lower returns. To offset that, investors are looking for buildings with a significant upside — called a ‘value add’ in industry parlance. ‘When you’re buying today, and you pay (today’s) prices and your tax rates go up, then … you have to raise rents,’said Tyler Leeson, a broker with Marcus & Millichap’s Irvine office. Leeson said he has closed 41 apartment transactions this year so far. ‘It’s like any investment,’ Leeson said. ‘Very few people invest in anything that won’t go up.’”

The Miami Herald in Florida. “Since so much of the new construction — from Wynwood’s upcoming micro-units to fancy rentals in Midtown and Brickell — is being priced at market rates, there is concern that the rental market could end up mirroring the overstocked luxury condo market, with prices too high for the average household to afford. Research analyst Elizabeth La Jeunesse, who authored the study, says Miami ranks third in the nation in lowest percentage of rental units under $800 a month — only 16 percent — and saw a loss of 20,000 rentals in that price range over the past 10 years, or a total decline of 13 percent.”

“The supply of high-cost rentals ($2,000 and up) more than doubled, with more than 50,000 units coming to market — an increase of 148 percent over the past decade. Meanwhile, the median household income in Miami-Dade remains flat at $41,913 — one of the lowest in the U.S. ‘You have a lot of developers who came out with condo projects and converted them into rentals because they saw the sales market was softening,’ said Jerome Hollo, executive VP of Florida East Coast Realty.”

The Press Herald in Maine. “The developer behind a 63-unit housing project in Portland has changed course, deciding to sell the units as condominiums rather than rent them as apartments. Vincent Veroneau, president and chief executive officer of J.B. Brown & Sons, said the decision to redirect the project at High and York streets was made mostly because other apartment projects have absorbed some of the pent-up demand.”

“It’s the latest example of aborted plans to add rental housing units in Portland, and suggests the city’s rental construction boom may be slowing after an infusion of apartments aimed mostly at the high end of the market. ‘We sort of felt the market-rate housing has been somewhat satisfied with other projects,’ Veroneau said.”

The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “Apartment rents in Houston and several other area cities declined in June compared with the same month a year earlier, moving in the opposite direction of rents in Texas and nationwide, according to Apartment List. Seven of the largest 10 area cities tracked by Apartment List saw year-over-year drops in rent in June, with Conroe falling by 3.7 percent and Spring showing a 3.6 percent drop.”

From D Magazine in Texas. “With over 50,000 apartment units currently under construction in North Texas, the multifamily market is heating up like Texas summer temperatures. Renters now have more choices than ever and apartment communities are having to rethink their approach to sales and marketing. With the immense amount of data available, we’re able to paint a detailed picture of our residents’ lifestyles: their preferences, where they go, and sometimes even their coffee order. You have all the information you need to engage in a reciprocal conversation. Yet, with all this information, I still see the industry telling audiences what to do (’Lease now! Get your first month free!’).”

The Dallas Morning News. “As black-coated waiters hurried about, Richard Tettamant sat near the head of a long table inside the Park City Club, where Dallas elites gather to talk business. The luncheon had drawn a couple of dozen consultants and money managers who, over plates of corned beef and roasted ham, heard about the real estate outlook for 2017. An executive of Ethika Investments, for whom Tettamant now worked as an adviser, gave the presentation.”

“At 65, Tettamant was in his element. For two decades, he’d served as the administrator of the Dallas Police and Fire Pension System and mingled with power brokers at events just like this. He billed himself as a visionary investment strategist for whom average returns would never be good enough. But today, after the public disclosure of a federal grand jury probe into the pension’s investments, Tettamant is deflecting blame and recasting his role as an official with little real authority, who simply carried out the instructions of a powerful board.”

“There is plenty of blame to go around for the pension’s near implosion. Board members whose votes determined the final say. Police officers and firefighters who elected them. City Council members who sat on the board but often missed meetings. Outside investment managers, consultants and auditors who gorged on fees while enabling bad decisions.”

“For many years, he succeeded. In 2003, the pension had an investment return of 31 percent, ranking it best performer among similar funds. During the next few years, in the frenzy of the housing bubble, the fund embarked on a massive expansion of its real estate holdings. It invested in thousands of acres of raw land in Idaho, a resort and vineyard near Napa, ultra-luxury houses in Hawaii.”

“‘The way they have demonized Richard, I think that’s completely unfair,’ said retired police Sgt. Rector McCollum, a former pension board member. ‘We were all in it to win it. We did great for years.’ The housing crisis, he said, ‘pulled the bottom out of the country, much less the Dallas police and fire pension.’”

RSS feed


Comment by Ben Jones
2017-07-10 09:04:47

‘For D.C.’s office sector, the second quarter of 2017 was marked by more construction starts that will bring additional empty space to the market. While there has been modest demand growth, experts view the market as oversupplied and expect rising vacancy rates and falling rents going forward.’

‘The District has 9.6M SF of office space under construction or renovation, according to CBRE’s Q2 office report, with much of that concentrated downtown. With the previous wave of law firm movers, such as Venable taking 245K SF at 600 Mass and Arnold & Porter taking 375K SF at 601 Mass, the landlords had more than half of the buildings filled before breaking ground. But JLL senior research analyst Carl Caputo said this is no longer the case.’

“With these projects, law firms are only taking 20% to 30% when you’d typically lease 40% to 50%,” Caputo said. “A majority of the other blocks will probably sit vacant for 24 to 36 months, putting the market at a greater risk of oversupply.”

“Eventually somebody’s going to give in and say, ‘OK, let’s drop rents,’” Caputo said. “At such a high price point you’re not targeting a big enough demand pool. You’re definitely going to see rents drop.”

‘An additional factor that could harm the D.C. office market is slowing job growth. The region’s job growth began to taper during the first half of 2017, according to Newmark Knight Frank’s Q2 report. During the 12 months ending in April, the region added 38,000 jobs, NKF found, below the 20-year average of 44,200 annual jobs. As with the previous stretch of rising job growth, the job numbers can take two or three years to register a noticeable effect with the office leasing market, NKF research manager Bethany Schneider said.’

Comment by DCJD
2017-07-10 10:10:34

New development across the river in VA surely will not help. Driving through Arlington, VA, there’s a surge of commercial construction and several new office buildings that are in various stages of development. It’s hard to imagine how this space will be filled. Out by me in Alexandria (near the Metro and the U.S. PTO), there are blocks of office buildings that sit entirely or mostly vacant, and have been vacant for nearly 10 years by my count. Between anemic growth and a trend towards firms/businesses reducing their footprint, quite a bit of office space in the area will surely go unused for quite some time to come. In an effort to address the supply-demand imbalance, a recent trend entails converting vacant office buildings into mixed residential & retail space.

See here and here.

Comment by dandroidz
2017-07-10 12:29:18

I saw an article on Zerohedge, that showed an entire strip of hwy in Santa Clara, CA that all had yuuuugeeeeeee office buildings completely vacant, waiting for lease.
Yep nothing to see here folks, move along. A techie app company will fill those 25,000 sq ft offices Im sure /eyeroll

Comment by rms
2017-07-10 12:48:15

There’s a bronze colored glass high-rise building on Market St in San Jose near Adobe. Seems like it was always struggling for tenants, so it was probably highly leveraged.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-07-10 16:47:15

Help me understand your statement: “it was always struggling for tenants, so it was probably highly leveraged.”

How do you make the connection that struggling for tenants implies a high degree of leverage?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by rms
2017-07-10 17:49:01

Can’t lower the rent ’cause the margins are too tight.

Comment by scdave
2017-07-10 18:45:14

Better to lower the rent then lose your a$$ every month. More likely their is no leverage.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-07-10 19:10:41

We are in Las Vegas where there are empty houses, houses everywhere, but not a one to buy (at a reasonable price.)

Our LL raised our rent a puzzling $25 a month for July on a $1,450 rent. Naturally, I’m happier with that than “get out”, which still may still happen because they haven’t given us a lease yet (expired last month.) I guess they’re still waiting for the appraisal results. When I call they assure me that there’s no problem.

As for my stubborn, holdout attitude, if I had to do this all over again, I wouldn’t.

Comment by scdave
2017-07-10 19:20:51

Demand a lease or leave. Waiting for a appraisal is a bullshit excuse.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-07-10 20:36:04

I probably phrased that unclearly.

The LL’s agent is assuring me the appraisal has nothing to do with it. However, from my point of view, it’s worrisome that at the end of the lease they decide to do an appraisal “for a refi”, no matter what he says. From what I hear NYC (where I was born and raised) is full of angels in comparison to here. I’ve found most people here, outside of RE, very nice though.

The LL’s agent is ultra-casual, which I am enjoying after having periodic inspections for five years in the last rental. I still feel bad about how I busted the PM kid’s whatevers every inspection, but my mother was so ill. He was under strict orders to take pictures of every room and I refused to let him take pictures of her in her sickbed - now there’s an old time term.

Also, I might have a few more pets than I oughta (they showed up at the back door and adopted me ;-)

Comment by SV guy
2017-07-10 17:48:56

55 S. Market is the building I believe you’re referring to.
I’ve done work there as well as the Adobe Towers (They were my account for some time).

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by rms
2017-07-10 23:53:36

“55 S. Market is the building I believe you’re referring to.”

Yes, that’s the one.

I looked at it closely one year for a window cleaning bid, but never landed that job. I remember there were lots of floors that were undeveloped and locked-out on the elevator. Growing up in a family business I recall wondering how they paid their bills.

Comment by SV guy
2017-07-10 17:46:13

There has been a large amount of construction going on in the valley. These buildings are relatively new so the fact that they aren’t leased isn’t really shocking.
Is this a bubble? Hell yes it is. But that story was weak.

Comment by taxpayers
2017-07-10 15:02:04

bahhhh wait till trumpf’s budget comes out
chop chop
even scdave and mighty mike are for chopping fed heads

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-07-10 09:32:25

‘When you’re buying today, and you pay (today’s) prices and your tax rates go up, then … you have to raise rents,’said Tyler Leeson, a broker with Marcus & Millichap’s Irvine office. Leeson said he has closed 41 apartment transactions this year so far. ‘It’s like any investment,’ Leeson said. ‘Very few people invest in anything that won’t go up.’

Well Tyler it sure isn’t the cash flow that has these “investors” paying insane amounts for apartments. And I have to wonder how prices can continue to go up after the biggest boom in prices and construction in 40 years, but I’m sure you’re in it to win it.

Comment by dandroidz
2017-07-10 12:00:45

Simply, how can prices go up when the people paying for it are earning the same, if not less, than the year 2000. Thats my one biggest question for any of these crazy markets in terms of home buying or renting. We as a populace are earning the same if not less, so what gives besides easy/lax lending [again]

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-07-10 17:12:40

By the use of Dotted Line Specials, natch.

Comment by scdave
2017-07-10 09:44:05

I am reposting this from the previous link…I share because IMO, this is happening in a way that I have never seen before…Its almost like its going viral…

The increase in inequality ??

Over the past couple of years I have seen many people I know personally sell their homes and leave the area…These are people of substantial means so they are not forced financially to leave…The common denominator with them all ?? Their children are struggling to afford to stay here even with good jobs so the children are headed out with them..Some are moving out of the area and some are moving out of state…This has always been the case over the years but I have never seen accelerate like it has over the last couple of years….There are three more moving in the next couple of months…Oregon, Idaho & North Carolina…

Comment by SW
2017-07-10 10:21:40

I know folks leaving California. Partly for economic reasons and partly for political reasons.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-07-10 10:51:47

Something I learned in Economics 101 was that modern recessions occur because of booms, specifically booms that went on for too long. What this means is that recessions start during booms. The expansions carry within them the seeds of the downturn: overbuilding. This is known as the business cycle. Lenders become complacent, as do developers and buyers. What isn’t helping is the prolonged period of ultra low interest rates. The central banks should have started tightening years ago. It’s probably too late now.

I always get a laugh when I hear someone say, “it’s not going to slow down, look at the frenzy!”

Comment by Mike
2017-07-10 12:42:25

it is interesting to ponder the idea that CB printing was in response to the end of a supercycle. In the short term, the degree of CB printing can be considered irrational but in the longer view ( especially if this is the end of a supercycle), their behavior becomes much less irrational.

Comment by Lurker
2017-07-10 14:04:15

“The expansions carry within them the seeds of the downturn”

And vise versa, but central bankers seemed to have missed that day in school. It is the downturn/recession, with its healthy deleverging, deflation and creative destruction, that create a solid foundation for the next expansion.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-07-10 14:14:44

It all sounds logical…except that we’re now in a situation where if it’s allowed to happen it will almost surely get out of control and then those who currently have power won’t have it any more. So it must be delayed for as long as possible regardless of the consequences.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by MightyMike
2017-07-10 14:37:31

It is the downturn/recession, with its healthy deleverging, deflation and creative destruction, that create a solid foundation for the next expansion.

That’s sounds nice, except for the people whose jobs get destroyed as part of that creative destruction. So people who look forward to such events must be confident that they won’t be affected.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-07-10 14:50:26

You really don’t get it Mike. Who looks forward to these things? Stating how the world works doesn’t mean it’s desirable. This all gets back to this new economics where recessions can be avoided indefinitely and technocrats run everything like the Wizard of Oz. These people and you apparently think bad investments, oversupply, over-leveraging can be papered over like it never happened. That’s just not logical.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-07-10 14:58:47

People make statements here on the HBB on a regular basis that indicate that they would like to see a recession soon. When someone writes, “It is the downturn/recession … that create a solid foundation for the next expansion”, that sounds to me like praise for recessions.

On the other hand, I’ve never made any statement in support of bad investments, oversupply, over-leveraging, etc.

Comment by BearCat
2017-07-10 15:30:24

Maybe, just maybe, the sooner bubbles pop the less harm is done…

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-07-10 17:17:25

Buffett once said something about not liking recessions but liking the prices they produce.

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2017-07-10 21:04:02

“… recessions start during booms.”

Yup, in the stock market they translate into plateaus of distribution.

Comment by rms
2017-07-10 13:00:01

Once your forties are closing-in you realize that it isn’t worth fighting asset inflation. We hated leaving California’s great climate on the Central Coast, but it was crystal clear that we had to leave. I blame Greenspan for this mess.

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2017-07-10 20:42:14

“The common denominator with them all ?? Their children are struggling to afford to stay…”

Miami, Florida

Comment by cactus
2017-07-10 09:51:32

Long-term owners with full buildings sometimes are less aggressive about raising rents, Hauser said. For one thing, Prop. 13 keeps property taxes low for existing owners. But those taxes jump to current market levels when a property changes hands.

“There’s a lot of long-term ownership in Orange County, a lot of low tax rates,” said Tyler Leeson, a broker with Marcus & Millichap’s Irvine office. “When you’re buying today, and you pay (today’s) prices and your tax rates go up, then … you have to raise rents.”

Leeson said he has closed 41 apartment transactions this year so far.

who’s buying these apartments? Cheap borrowed money buying anything that yields ? I talked to a “investment person” at a party said get out of REITS because retail is done. What about apartments ? this can’t go on forever ?

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-07-10 10:45:11

I came across this which has a chart showing ownership percentages:

‘Atlanta is currently one of the fastest growing cities in the United States. The healthy economy and broad-based job and population growth are fostering demand for rentals, attracting developers and investors to the market. Towards the end of the second quarter, roughly 68,000 multifamily units were in different stages of development, of which 20,400 are already under construction.’

‘Consistent growth and greater returns drive the competitive multifamily investment scene, as The Gate City is ideal for those in search of a large regional center outside the overheated core coastal markets. This list highlights the metro’s top 10 private, REIT and institutional investor apartment owners, based on unit counts, according to Yardi Matrix data. The total number includes units within projects that are completed, under construction, planned as well as prospective.’

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-07-10 15:45:39

The misconception of what a REIT is drives me crazy.

You can own a mortgage REIT (that only owns paper);
You can own equity REITs (that own physical real estate). Such REITs usually specialize:
– Office
– Retail (Malls, Grocery Anchored Retail, or NNN assets)
– Apartments
– Self-Storage
– Industrial (both big distribution and smaller spaces)
– Healthcare
– Senior Housing
– Telecom
– Single Family Rentals
– Student Housing, etc.

To say that ______ real estate sector is suffering, so you should get out of REITs is foolish.

The funny thing is that I’m somewhat less nervous about retail than the other REIT sectors that are trading at much lower yields. Retail REITs have been getting slaughtered…dividend yields are way up. Full disclosure, I’ve put my money where my mouth is…I just bought some Retail REITs (and just enjoyed my first 2%+ quarterly dividend).

It’s almost a reverse “shoeshine boy” moment that you described…if the man on the street says to “get out” of a certain sector, plenty of bad news has likely been baked in…maybe overbaked, pushing the prices down too low.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-07-10 16:38:53

‘It’s almost a reverse “shoeshine boy” moment’

Knife catching?

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-07-11 09:18:45

It is certainly possible that buying retail REITs is knife catching.

It’s also possible that the statement “Amazon is killing bricks and mortar” is so easy to understand and so broadly (and maybe blindly) accepted that the trade has shifted too far in that direction.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Neuromance
2017-07-10 19:27:29

The “central bank put” is not without unintended consequences.

Maybe the unintended consequences are inconsequential, maybe not, but I’m confident they’re there.

Just think about low interest rates. Lowering interest rates allows higher asset prices for the same monthly payment. Higher asset prices allow asset holders and brokers to get more money, but less interest paid to the great unwashed.

It’s a redirection of wealth, the “expert redistribution” done by technocrats. From the many to the few.

It would be most ironic if low interest rates were distorting and deflationary and economically suppressive, not stimulative, on account of the above redistribution of wealth. You can spend interest, but you can’t spend equity (of course, one could by putting the asset - house - up as collateral for a loan, but then again that would need to be paid back with interest, so net loss for the debtor).

They have decades of data on this. But perhaps their orthodoxy is their blinder, they rise to the top of the profession by their ability to recite the Koran, not by thinking outside the orthodoxy.

Who knows.

Comment by rj not in chicago anymore
2017-07-10 11:01:39

“At 65, Tettamant was in his element. For two decades, he’d served as the administrator of the Dallas Police and Fire Pension System and mingled with power brokers at events just like this. He billed himself as a visionary investment strategist for whom average returns would never be good enough. But today, after the public disclosure of a federal grand jury probe into the pension’s investments, Tettamant is deflecting blame and recasting his role as an official with little real authority, who simply carried out the instructions of a powerful board.”

Most likely this guy cut his teeth in ILLANNOY learning from the best of the handlers there - Madigan and Cullerton.

Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-07-10 11:35:19

“As black-coated waiters hurried about, Richard Tettamant sat near the head of a long table inside the Park City Club, where Dallas elites gather to talk business.”

There’s that nauseating word again, “elites.” I think the media conspires to force-feed this disgusting term to the masses, so they’ll adopt it.

Comment by dandroidz
2017-07-10 11:56:38

I’m out in Portland Oregon for a work project. The building boom is insane compared to when I was here in early 2013. Apartment complexes going up in any given space in the downtown sections. Just out and about yesterday chasing some beers, I saw no less than 3 new buildings by the breweries I was at (all within 10 min walk). On the NW side of town, “Pearl District”, I see another 2-3 starting up (foundations, concrete, etc), and 2-3 looking about 75%. When I ask locals whats driving it, they all say the same 3 or 4 major corporations which have been here since before this boom; Nike, Adidas, Daimler Motors, Intel….so what is driving this mysterious explosion in PDX? I know a lot is fleeing Californians with magical CA equity, but still. I’m trying to convince my buddy to sell their 100+ yr old house now while the gettings good, but he thinks they are shielded from the next dip…

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-07-10 12:02:43

It’s happening all over the country. This is part of the “overheated coastal markets” that is said a lot. You’ll find the same thing going on in North Dakota, Kansas and Oklahoma. Texas has gone bananas with apartments. This bubble extends to student housing, senior, just about every category. Hotels even.

Comment by dandroidz
2017-07-10 12:20:05

Oh I understand. If you can recall my older posts under this handle, I was living in North Boston metro and would often chime in the boots on the ground data there. Covering the crazy housing prices for 100+ yr old homes, apartment boom in the “luxury” and hip “Seaport” district in the city, etc.

Whats even more funny, is I know friends who are moving to these locales during these peak cost of living times, lol. Their timing is so awful!! Buddy of mine got a $90k engineer job in Seattle, but thats like $50,000 in any part of the South.

Comment by Jingle Male
2017-07-11 01:36:33

Dan, I posted this on Saturday….

Here is the first interesting observation: Two prospective buyers are moving from Portland, OR to Sacramento. Why? 1) the Portland, OR real estate market is very tight and they can sell quickly, easily and at a nice profit, bringing big equity gains with them (so…is this a reverse equity locust situation?), 2) their incomes will easily double when they move to CA, and 3) The housing prices in Sacramento and Portland are roughly equivalent, so their affordability ratio increases substantially.

This seems to be the opposite of the “get stucco” phenomenon we saw in 2007-2012 where people could not move because they were pinned down by their home. NOW, their home is a springboard to facilitating a better life.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by nhtransplant
2017-07-11 05:46:01

Crappy timing, but life happens when life happens. It easy for people to judge when life happened to them at a more convenient time.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Localandlord
2017-07-11 14:02:22

It’s happening in mundane Locaville.

I can understand the higher prices on the brand new complexes but now out of town investment groups are buying up generic 20-30 yr old complexes and raising the rents. Chasing yield with all that loose money floating around.

It makes live easier for us small operators who offer modest rents. Much less turnover.

Comment by CHE
2017-07-10 12:18:46

Talked a young guy (24) who works in mortgages. He had moved from Long Island two years ago to work in Orange County, CA.

He was telling me about his co-workers with their fancy cars and fancy apartments and in debt up to their eyeballs.

I told him to watch it - this happened little more than 10 years ago - all these stories of 20-somethings making tons of money. I also explained how cyclical the Southern California real estate market is and I’ve been through a few of these.

He replied that he knew and he already is seeing it plateau. He tries to warn his co-workers but they won’t have any of it. On the other hand, he says he’s socking away his cash and intends to buy when it does drop.

Smart kid!

Comment by dandroidz
2017-07-10 12:23:34

They always say history repeats itself, and we never seem to learn. And like you point out, we are barely a decade out of the last epic collapse. Less than 10 yrs for effing sake!!! These people are nuts, and the cheerleaders who believe the pricing hysteria.

Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-07-10 12:25:38

Nowhere on this planet are people driving cars well beyond their financial means than LA. LA = Look Atme.

Comment by rms
2017-07-10 13:08:36

“He was telling me about his co-workers… in debt up to their eyeballs.”

When I was a repo-man the biggest debtors were the loan officers at the bank who knew how to game the system.

Comment by junior_kai
2017-07-10 15:27:09

I probably told this story before, but back in bubble 1.0 I saw it coming very early and sold my house, went to a rental and started selling off some of the excess “stuff” you accumulate when you have extra room. I ran into a number of loan officers, all 20 something guys a few years out of college interested in buying stuff like surfboards and musical equipment via craigslist. One guy in particular asked me why I was selling and I told him, he said “bro, you should have talked to me first, I could have gotten you a sweet deal and unlocked the equity rather than sell” or words to that effect. I was chuckling, yep, guess I screwed up, lol! I remember his car was packed with stuff, he was just buying every little shiny thing that caught his eye online and driving around from seller to seller making offers. Did so many buys he would get the sellers mixed up. Quite the episode.

Now we get to enjoy it all over again - thanks (((Yellen)))!

Comment by Karen
2017-07-10 12:25:54

More pension fund troubles:

The face of America’s pension crisis http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/retirement/the-face-of-americas-pension-crisis/ar-BBE8iUG?li=BBnbfcN

“Anyone who participates in a pension has insurance from a government agency known as the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). The agency collects a small premium for each person who participates in a pension, and in turn, it promises to pay benefits to pensioners of failed plans, often at a reduced rate.”

“In simple terms, the surpluses earned by the PBGC through 2004 were an illusion, as the agency simply underpriced the risk of pension failures.”

And how many of these pension funds are investing in this apartment boom that’s already starting to fall apart? And the stock market, which can’t continue going up to infinity much longer?

We’re due for a recession. Just imagine how much worse this pension thing is going to get.

Comment by taxpayers
2017-07-10 15:59:21

only gov workers will get pensions
see IL
goons get paid ,everyone else suffers

Comment by rms
2017-07-10 18:15:03

“More pension fund troubles”

I can remember when Ronald (Mommy?!) Reagan allowed corporations to under fund their pension contributions. On television they clapped on Wall street as the closing bell sounded… the markets loved it.

Comment by aqius
2017-07-10 13:24:48

as a native & long time resident of CA, I have often thought about leaving.

but . . . to where ?
frying pan to fire ?!?

as previously mentioned the entire globe has tulip mania.

and I don’t have enough bail money for so many “I-was-here-first” azzholes

Comment by Jenna
2017-07-10 13:25:15

The housing market in Texas is showing no signs of slowing down. Taxes continue to rise and homeowners are looking for options to sell fast. I have recently talked to a lot of investors out of California that have rentals in Texas. Many of them need to sell investment property because there is no profit or cash flow. I don’t see this market slowing down so I am here to buy houses fast in Texas.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-07-10 13:49:37

The housing market in Texas is showing no signs of slowing down.


homeowners are looking for options to sell fast.

It seems like those two statements contradict?

Comment by Karen
2017-07-10 14:59:14

‘no profit or cash flow’, but you’re buying


Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-07-10 17:24:37

I’m in love.

Comment by Karen
2017-07-10 20:45:27

They don’t come any dumber than that. She’s all yours.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by MightyMike
2017-07-10 14:50:40

The latest Silicon Valley housing idea: On a landfill

SANTA CLARA — It’s not your typical site for a new housing development: a former landfill, containing an estimated 5.5 million tons of municipal waste dumped over a quarter century in the heart of this city.

But it’s looking more and more as if the Related Companies’ plan to build a $6.7 billion mixed-use complex with up to 1,680 units of housing across the street from Levi’s Stadium will come to fruition. The project represents the largest housing project ever proposed atop a landfill in the Bay Area, regulators say, and perhaps in the entire state.

Environmental overseers have accepted Related’s massive technical document, which includes elaborate safety systems to block the escape of combustible methane gas and other dangerous vapors, and to prevent groundwater contamination.

“The regulators were pretty skeptical at the start, I have to say,” said Stephen Eimer, an executive vice president with Related and co-managing partner of the 9.2 million-square-foot project, known as City Place. “But we kept at it, working and working, and they came around.”

Set on 240 acres atop what was once the Santa Clara All Purpose Landfill — a golf course and BMX track now occupy the site — the project also would include 5.7 million square feet of offices, 1.1 million square feet of retail space and 700 hotel rooms. The planning document for the development, which calls for a foot-thick concrete barrier covering more than 30 central acres of landfill where the housing would be built, spells out “multiple layers and multiple means of protecting” residents, shoppers and workers “from any kind of problem,” Eimer said.

The housing — probably a combination of condos and apartments — would be built Santana Row-style: above shops, restaurants or parking structures as a way of creating additional distance between residents and any escaped gases in the event of an emergency. But Eimer said safety measures should be nearly bulletproof with extensive sensor and alarm systems, as well as another system to monitor, collect and dispose of gases underground.


Comment by Carl Morris
2017-07-10 16:01:02

This has gotta indicate the top.

Keep in mind this is just down the street from all that empty office space we were just talking about on Great America Parkway.

Comment by scdave
2017-07-10 16:40:19

I am quite familiar with this project. I keep asking if it’s going and the insiders say yes. City wants it badly. From $20. Golf course fees to tax revenue on a 9 Bil $ project. My son lives just a few thousand feet away from this project.

Comment by scdave
2017-07-10 16:44:21

just down the street from all that empty office space we were just talking about ??

The Irvine company owns a number of those buildings. They could. E vacant for a decade and it would not cause a blip on there P & L

Comment by scdave
2017-07-10 16:45:43

E = leave it

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-07-11 11:13:20

Maybe so. But they didn’t make all that money by treating it so carelessly in the past.

Comment by Apartment 401
Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-07-10 17:33:00

If a puke is in his Seventies and is not retired then:

He gets a paycheck,

He gets Social Security,

He doesn’t have to take Required Minimum Distributions from his 401k.

If the work is easy then it is a no-brainer of a decision to keep on working.

Comment by rms
2017-07-10 18:25:50

It seems like Sheldon Adelson, Warren Buffett and George Soros are all well past the typical retirement age.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-07-11 11:15:47

Working is pleasurable and low stress when you are well compensated and in complete control of the schedule and pace.

Comment by rj not in chicago anymore
2017-07-10 15:59:58

All - A bit off topic. If this was going on when I was in school - man o man the possibilities!!!

Pulled this from an organization called the Economic Development Corporation - located here in the Denver area. They report on the local economy.

Metropolitan State University of Denver (MSU Denver) will invest $3.6 million into its beer-brewing program. The school plans to turn 8,000 square feet of space into a permanent brewing program, including five laboratories, 30 fermentation tanks, and an abundance of brewing equipment. MSU Denver hopes the program will work similar to a
co-op, where local brewers can invest in the space upfront, then use the equipment and services afterwards.
Metro Denver Economic Development Corporation |May 2, 2017 | Page 6

Comment by Avg Joe
2017-07-10 16:55:18

If that’s not a bell-ringer for the top of the micro-brewing industry I don’t know what is.

Comment by rms
2017-07-10 18:29:36

Didn’t Oregon pull-off a similar deal? I mean there’s great craft beer all around the state!

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-07-11 05:06:29

Will MSU Denver change its mascot and become the Belching Brewers?

Comment by jeff
2017-07-10 17:47:02

Blue Skye

Ben Jones


Tarara Boomdea


Raymond K Hessel



snake charmer

Michael Viking



Professor Bear


and Prime_Is_Contained

Thank you all for your kind words and encouragement, it has been a comfort to me during the worst time of my life.

My wish for all of you is the same as the one we shared to say goodbye to our beautiful daughter.

May the road rise up to meet you.
May the wind be always at your back.
May the sun shine warm upon your face,
and the rains fall soft upon your fields
And until we meet again,
may God hold you in the palm of His hand.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-07-10 18:34:27

Wherefore is light given to him that is in misery,
and life unto the bitter in soul.

–Job 3:20 (KJV)

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-07-10 18:45:15

Thinking of you and your wife, Jeff.

Comment by PitchforkPurveyor
2017-07-10 18:59:10

Best of luck, Jeff.

Comment by jeff
2017-07-10 20:58:26

Thank you

Comment by scdave
2017-07-10 19:00:38

I was very sorry to hear about yours & the wife’s loss phoney. Losing a child has got to be the hardest test. I will pray that you and your family can achieve some level of peace. Peace be with you Jeff.

Comment by jeff
2017-07-10 20:57:22

Thank you dave.

Comment by alphonso bedoya
2017-07-10 21:16:54

The presence of the person is felt within you as time goes on. In woods and at the the sea the spirit will visit you. Close your eyes and let it envelope you there.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Neuromance
2017-07-10 19:49:32

“The dust shall return to the earth as it was: and the spirit shall return unto God who gave it.” — Ecclesiastes

Comment by scdave
2017-07-10 19:56:33

Ecclesiastes ?

I looked it up. Sweet. Nice post. 👍

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-07-10 18:05:18

Central bankers warn their fellow banksters not to engage in “risky accounting” - as if that’s not the basis of the speculative casino created by ultra-easy credit.


Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-07-10 18:26:06

Been checking out open houses lately. When the realtors ask me how I like them, I casually inform them, and any looky-loos in the vicinity, that I’m waiting for Housing Bubble 2.0 to burst and then I’m looking to pay cash at a foreclosure option.

Deep down, those realtors love me.

Comment by scdave
2017-07-10 19:06:43

RH. Realtors sell it on the way up and sell it on the way down. For the good ones, either way they likely make the same amount of money. I have read that 5% of the licensed realtors make 80% of the commissions. Not sure if that is accurate but I would not be surprised that it is.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-07-11 09:21:59

Realtors sell it on the way up and sell it on the way down.

And that’s why all they care about are the number of homes on the market, and how many are selling.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by aNYCdj
2017-07-10 21:33:36

wow came across this from 1992

McCrory’s Chapter 11 Filing Big Blow to Financier Riklis : Retailing: L.A. entrepreneur and wife, Pia Zadora, couldn’t pay rent on N.Y. suites, Trump suit charges.


Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-07-11 08:39:39

She pops up in the news here in Vegas occasionally.
Catching up with actress and singer Pia Zadora, Jun 14, 2017

I saw something a few years ago about her being arrested (as she jokes about in the clip), but I forget what she did.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-07-11 10:00:19

She was in this film. I used to have a copy on VHS until the tape broke. I watched it every Xmas as it was funny:


Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2017-07-11 21:05:59

Santa Claus Conquers the Martians
There’s a MST3000 version!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Professor Bear
2017-07-11 00:58:32
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-07-11 03:45:26

True price discovery is stalking the Tech Bubble 2.0 unicorns.


Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-07-11 04:43:25

I sense that my hitherto unshakable faith in ABQ Dan’s powers of prognostication is about to be tested.


Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2017-07-11 04:51:13

The can-kicking on public pension shortfalls is rapidly running out of road.

Sorry, Boomers. Public union members subsisting on rice and beans won’t be funding your retirement by paying the wish price on your overpriced shack.


Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post