Few Realized Just How Big The Gulf Is Getting
A report from the Arizona Republic. “The Valley needs a lot more apartments to keep up with its expected growth, according to a new study. Anyone who has been around downtown Phoenix, Scottsdale or Tempe, where thousands of apartments have recently gone up or are under construction, will probably find this hard to believe. I did. More than 10,000 new apartments are underway or have recently opened to renters, mainly in those areas. Rents are a great gauge to whether an area has too many apartments. After jumping nearly 15 percent since 2015, rental rates are dipping in parts of the Valley with the most new apartments. And developers at new complexes are beginning to offer deals on longer leases.”
“A little overbuilding can be good news for renters when their monthly payment dips, but too much is a bad thing for home values, the real-estate market and the economy.”
The Dallas Morning News. “The run up in Dallas-area apartment rents may be easing. During June Dallas-area rents were just 2.4 percent ahead of where they were a year ago, according to apartment researcher Axiometrics. That’s the smallest annual increase in the Dallas area in seven years and the first time in recently that the rise in Dallas rents was less than the national average. ‘The influx of Dallas supply is finally affecting market performance,’ said Jay Denton, vice president of analytics for Axiometrics. ‘Demand is still high, but it will take a while to fill all the new properties in the market.’”
“Almost 29,000 new apartments are set to open in North Texas this year. Currently there are over 50,000 apartments being built in North Texas.”
The News Tribune in Washington. “The regional apartment market might be softening just a bit, which would be welcome news for renters who have seen double-digit rent increases compared to last year. Apartment vacancy rates in Pierce and Thurston counties are climbing, according to Seattle research firm Apartment Insights. Plus, Pierce County is seeing record levels of apartment construction. Apartment vacancy rates in Pierce County in the second quarter of 2017 was 4.21 percent, up from 3.34 percent the year before, according to Apartment Insights, which studies apartment complexes with 50 or more units.”
“Apartment Insights says 4,004 apartments are under construction or have completed permitting in the three-county area, most in Pierce County. Another 4,251 are at earlier stages of permitting and review. Rents in newer buildings, which have luxury finishes and amenities, can cost north of $2,000 for a two-bedroom, two-bath unit. A family living there would need to earn $72,000 a year to even get in the door. Tacoma’s median household income is $60,000 a year, Census data show. About 40 percent of Tacoma households earn less than $50,000 a year.”
“That’s probably the fill-in from the Seattle market,’ said Raelene Rogers, a partner at McCament and Rogers LLC, a Gig Harbor consulting firm that specializes in urban development, of those who can afford that kind of apartment.”
From Multi-Housing News on California. “After several years of heightened growth, multifamily rents in San Francisco have tempered. Rents have reached a point where even highly paid workers can’t afford the premium prices. Transaction activity has slowed in 2017, with only $300 million in properties trading in the first five months of the year. This comes after last year’s cycle high, when more than $3 billion in assets changed hands, reflecting investor caution amid escalating prices and macroeconomic uncertainty. With more than 15,000 units under construction, Yardi Matrix forecasts rents will remain flat in 2017.”
From The Tennessean. “The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in the Nashville area fell 3.1 percent a month during the first half of this year, the third biggest drop among cities nationwide. After years of growth, monthly rents are leveling off at the swanky, new apartments that dot the Nashville skyline with developers and landlords now offering concessions and other perks to lure renters. ‘The new have come online quicker than they’ve been absorbed, so there’s been a little indigestion for everything to get back in balance,’ said Woody McLaughlin, a member of the statistics committee of the Greater Nashville Apartment Association trade group.”
“Abodo’s apartment analysis of rents didn’t take concessions into account. But a separate tracking by research firm CoStar Group shows most newly delivered projects in the Nashville area offering two months free rents on 14-month terms and a month free on 13-month terms, waiver of fees and deposits and perks such as gift cards and TVs. ‘It’s only the properties that have really slowed down in leasing or are still pre-leasing while under construction that are offering these types of concessions on a 12-month lease,’ said Elinor Avant, a CoStar market analyst. ‘Discounted rent is still pretty rare, but is becoming more common as the competition rises. $500 and $1,000 upfront is really common on all lease terms.’”
“Currently, 16,000 apartment units are under construction in the Nashville area with 10,000 more units in various planning stages, according to the Greater Nashville Apartment Association. For the first quarter, Nashville’s apartment occupancy rate fell 2.76 percent to 92.69 percent, reflecting increased supply including completion of 1,786 new units during that three-month period. McLaughlin expects a more challenging environment for apartment owners/developers as inventory continues to grow. ‘The consumer can continue to expect concessions on the high-end product to compete with more renovations of older apartments that can compete price-wise,’ he added.”
From Bisnow on Pennsylvania. “Philadelphia has benefited from an increased national profile in the past few years among residents and investors alike, but those who may wish it to grow as fast as its Northeast neighbors may be playing a dangerous game. The large majority of incoming multifamily construction is in Center City, which does provide some optimism that surrounding areas could remain fertile for new apartments. But firms that count Philly among a multi-market portfolio do not see much runway in the market. ‘There looks like there could be a slight lapse and softness in 2017-18,’ LEM Capital partner David Lazarus said.”
“While it is commonly accepted that new construction needs to charge a certain rent in order to recoup high construction costs, perhaps few realized just how big the gulf is getting. Lazarus said only 178 new Class-B apartments were delivered across the country last year. ‘We’re all focused on these new Class-A units and where the tenants are coming from, but what’s really going on is that there’s an affordability crisis in this country,’ Lazarus said.”
From the last link:
‘It looks like Center City may be cooling off in the immediate future, allowing for more activity in the suburbs, where value-add is the investment of choice. New construction has arrived in areas like King of Prussia and Phoenixville, but investment dollars are chasing value-add properties like never before.’
“There’s a significant amount of money chasing renovation properties, and those cap rates can dip to the 5% range,”HFF Senior Managing Director Jose Cruz said. “But the attractive part is that you can take that rate with renovation and end up with yield as high as 15%, so that remains an attractive deal.”
Well Jose, that works as long as renters have an infinite capacity to pay higher rents. Maybe they can get an interest-only loan?
‘Transaction activity has slowed in 2017, with only $300 million in properties trading in the first five months of the year. This comes after last year’s cycle high, when more than $3 billion in assets changed hands, reflecting investor caution amid escalating prices and macroeconomic uncertainty.’
Ta-Boom.
‘With more than 15,000 units under construction…’
Some might characterize a 90% decline in transactions a collapse. It’s gonna be another twitter.
Can’t be a collapse. The MSM would’ve been all over a story like that, just like they were in 2007.
Oh, wait….
$300MM in 5 months.
$3B in 12 months.
Not to say that there wasn’t a significant drop…there was…just not 90%.
That said, I noticed a significant slowdown in volume in the first part of 2017 for every property type (and had other folks note the same). I think people were trying to figure out what a Trump presidency meant (because they weren’t expecting him to win).
From a Cushman and Wakefield Q1 report on US Capital Markets…the first bullet of their “Key Takeaways”:
“In the first quarter, transaction volume was down 26% from the same period a year ago. Both portfolio and individual asset sales fell. The decline was widespread across market tier and product.”
Can you post a link to the report RW ?
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&ved=0ahUKEwjM6NqyhJnVAhWjxlQKHeI4BAAQFgguMAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cushmanwakefield.com%2F~%2Fmedia%2Freports%2Fcorporate%2FMarketBeat%2520Reports%2F2017%2FQ1%2520US%2520MarketBeat%2FCW_US_CapitalMarkets_MarketBeat_Q1_17.pdf&usg=AFQjCNFe94KaEgz6tUjtXHXgA_lJ-2JsMw&cad=rja
Straight to download.
The closing paragraph of the report in the link Rental Watch provided:
“Activity to Accelerate in Coming Quarters
All in all, the recent weakness in sales volume is likely
transitory. Buyers have amassed a tremendous amount
of capital and are ready, but not in a rush, to deploy it.
They face the combination of a gap between their
valuations and seller expectations and a general dearth
of product on the market. Sellers in turn are reticent to
capitulate on price and many are withholding product
until they see stronger buying activity. The question is
who will break the stalemate and when—not if. The cap
rate data so far point towards some measure of seller
capitulation on pricing expectations. This is consistent
with our indications of increasing product coming to
market in the coming months. Overall, the stage is set
for a robust remainder of 2017.”
We’ll see.
I’ve certainly seen activity ramp up…but deals are harder to make.
Thx RW…
“…only $300 million in properties trading in the first five months of the year. This comes after last year’s cycle high, when more than $3 billion in assets changed hands,…”
Please check my math, but I believe that is over a 90% year-on-year decline.
Ker-plunk…
“Overall, the stage is set for a robust remainder of 2017.”
I stand corrected. A 45%+ drop so far portends for a bang-up red hot fall sales season.
At this pace it’s an 80% YOY decline. Could get worse.
https://www.google.com/search?q=600+diveded+by+3000&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8
‘4,004 apartments are under construction or have completed permitting in the three-county area, most in Pierce County. Another 4,251 are at earlier stages of permitting and review.’
‘Rents in newer buildings…can cost north of $2,000 for a two-bedroom, two-bath unit. A family living there would need to earn $72,000 a year to even get in the door. Tacoma’s median household income is $60,000 a year, Census data show. About 40 percent of Tacoma households earn less than $50,000 a year.’
OK, let’s pass the hat and buy these guys some calculators.
These guys are all following the Lake Woebegone model: In *my* building, all the kids are gonna be above average.
Oxide, got a fed count-how many of the 20% quit so far?
My hood is still perky 22151
mostly feds
And they’re really kidding themselves with these numbers. It would be far more accurate to look at the median household income of apartment renters.
When you look at overall median income in an area it’s skewed to the high-end by including people who are not, and would never be, in the market for an apartment.
“That’s probably the fill-in from the Seattle market,’ said Raelene Rogers, a partner at McCament and Rogers LLC, a Gig Harbor consulting firm that specializes in urban development, of those who can afford that kind of apartment.”
Yep, drive until you qualify redux - for buying and renting. Seattle is cooked, now it’s spreading far and wide.
I think Seattle is close to peaking, if not already. An 1800 sf rotbox on a 6,000 sf lot in Montlake is $1,000,000. This is well beyond the 2007 price.
Just from the steep positive slope of the price increases this spring, I think the same - we’ve got to be close to the top.
Tech salaries, including bonuses and stock options, can’t account for these kinds of increases.
From the “Yellen bucks looking for a place to die” file, we’ve done restaurants, we’ve done hotels. Next up:
‘Senior Living CEOs See a Silver Lining in Low Occupancy Rates’
‘The average occupancy rate for U.S. assisted living properties fell to 86.5% in the second quarter of 2017, according to new data…Average independent living occupancy also recently dropped. Overall, those properties tumbled to 90.6% occupancy in the second quarter of 2017.’
‘Though these figures may worry some operators—especially those in overdeveloped markets—it didn’t seem to faze Ken Jaeger, founder and CEO of Denver’s MorningStar Senior Living. MorningStar operates 20 communities spread across Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and Oregon.’
“It’ll come and go,” he said. “You have to hang in there.”
‘Occupancy rates for assisted living communities reached their lowest point in eight years in the second quarter, driven down by inventory growth that outpaced healthy absorption rates, according to data released Wednesday by the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care’s MAP Data Service.’
‘This follows a first-quarter 2017 assisted living occupancy level that was reportedly at its lowest level since early 2010. As of the second quarter of 2017, occupancy was 1.9 percentage points above its cyclical low of 86.9% during the first quarter of 2010.’
“The softening of occupancies for both assisted living and independent living is the result of their inventory growth, or unit completions, surpassing their relatively healthy annual rates of absorption of units, including the record pace of absorption for assisted living,” Chuck Harry, NIC’s chief of research and analytics, said in a statement. “The record rate of annual absorption for assisted living properties of 4.3% still fell well short of its record annual inventory growth of 5.9%.”
‘The seniors housing annual inventory growth rate in the second quarter of 2017 was 3.9%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter and also its fastest pace since NIC began reporting the data in 2006.’
“Annual growth in inventory was high for both assisted living and independent living properties. It reflects the strong level of starts that we saw in 2015,” said Beth Burnham Mace, chief economist for NIC. “It often takes six to eight quarters for a project to move from groundbreaking to completion, so activity that was started in 2015 is showing up now in inventory growth. Starts have been trending lower since 2015, so we should see some slowdown in completions in the coming quarters.”
‘Market Tension: Investors Worry Boomer Demand Not Keeping Pace With Senior Housing Supply’
‘Overbuilding remains a major concern for senior housing owners and lenders. Record levels of new supply outpaced demand in the first three months of the year, and the second quarter did not fare much better.’
‘Those headwinds have not deterred capital from seeking a foothold in the saturated industry, however, JLL reports.’
‘But experts say the building boom is a bit premature as most seniors will not enter senior living facilities until they are well into their 80s. JLL predicts 2021 will be the year worth following in the sector, as that is when the first wave of boomers are set to hit 75.’
‘More Urban, Amenity-Rich Developments’
‘Demand is pushing senior housing developers to break the molds of the past. As more seniors look to retire in style, developers are increasingly turning to urban markets and expensive infill sites to build taller high-rises. Americans’ shifting live-work-play preferences in favor of city life and urban metros has translated to baby boomers as well. Seniors are paying big bucks for housing in more vibrant, 18- and 24-hour cities with an assortment of amenities that include a community filled with retail, restaurants and entertainment offerings right outside the door.’
‘Market Saturation’
‘Assisted living and memory care occupancy levels have suffered from overbuilding. Developers have been heavy on these assets since the financial crisis, as they were deemed resilient with strong returns during the Great Recession. Another perk: These assets are typically smaller and cheaper to build.’
‘The result is an abundance of product within the Texas markets, Denver, Chicago, Detroit, Salt Lake City and several markets in Florida, JLL reports.’
memory care occupancy levels have suffered from overbuilding
Did they stop to think about how many can afford this? From what I have heard, “memory care” (for those with Alzheimer’s and dementia) can easily cost $7000 a month.
And how many of these 75+ year-old are going to have the energy and money to live in a “vibrant 18-24 hour city with retail, restaurants, and entertainment”?
Retail? What are they supposed to buy? Gifties for the grandkids I guess.
Where I live in West Hollywood, there’s a battle brewing against a mid-rise senior living development one street over from my apartment building.
About 5 years ago some friends and I were walking down the street laughing about something and got screamed at by some bitter old man walking his dog telling us we were being “too loud”
At 9pm. On a Saturday night. Between two major streets filled with bars, music clubs, night clubs and restaurants.
The olds like the idea of a “vibrant 24 hr city” as long as it’s only during daylight hours.
As I reminded the man, there are hundreds of square miles of “quiet” areas in Southern California. It was his choice to stay in 1.9 sq miles of this city.
“Memory Care” is very expensive ($7k or more). However, once people are so progressed in dementia that they become residents of places where 24-hour monitoring is necessary, they typically have 1-2 years to live, and it is either impossible for loved ones to care for them, or even more expensive for third-party caregivers at home.
However, once people are so progressed in dementia that they become residents of places where 24-hour monitoring is necessary, they typically have 1-2 years to live, and it is either impossible for loved ones to care for them, or even more expensive for third-party caregivers at home.
True, but of you can’t swing the $7K per month, what do you do?
Both of my in-laws were in memory-care for about 3 years each, and at about the same time. They could only afford it because my FIL had a gold plated executive pension, I think he got about 20K per month from his pensions. They have both since passed away.
That kind of expense would have demolished the typical 401K/IRA.
That kind of expense would have demolished the typical 401K/IRA ??
Yep. My mother burned through a couple hundred thousand + in just a couple of years before she passed. The nasty thing about Alz is that typically you are healthy in every way except you mind. You can live a very long time with Alz but you still need the full time assistance
‘Demand is pushing senior housing developers to break the molds of the past. As more seniors look to retire in style, developers are increasingly turning to urban markets and expensive infill sites to build taller high-rises. Americans’ shifting live-work-play preferences in favor of city life and urban metros has translated to baby boomers as well. Seniors are paying big bucks for housing in more vibrant, 18- and 24-hour cities with an assortment of amenities that include a community filled with retail, restaurants and entertainment offerings right outside the door.’
Even our old people are now a bunch of barflies? I think somebody’s making up stories to sell to “investors”.
It’s the developers that are paying too much. Most people this age and situation have one main concern: outliving their money. They will line up at Golden Corral at 3PM to save one dollar. I’ve seen it. They aren’t looking for any of this stuff. Now I did see one guy in his 60’s in a recent Houston condo article who was still a bar fly and imagined himself throwing them back well into his retirement. We’ll see.
BTW there are many thousands of senior living units on the way in Phoenix and 95% of them are….luxury.
Not to mention that most seniors are sawing z’s well before 10 PM and a lively evening for them is watching Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune (after returning from the Early Bird dinner special at the Country Buffet)
“Most people this age and situation have one main concern: outliving their money. They will line up at Golden Corral at 3PM to save one dollar.”
“Not to mention that most seniors are sawing z’s well before 10 PM and a lively evening for them is watching Jeopardy and Wheel of Fortune (after returning from the Early Bird dinner special at the Country Buffet).”
This sounds absolutely dreadful.
This sounds absolutely dreadful.
I’m already halfway there except replace TV with internet. It’s not so bad :-).
I’m there. Anchoring in the Thousand Islands, hoping to outlive my supply of fishing bait.
Given demographics, senior housing is among the easiest investment thesis to understand…as such, there is a meaningful risk of overdevelopment (following over-investment).
“From the “Yellen bucks looking for a place to die” file, we’ve done restaurants, we’ve done hotels.”
Can’t you just picture her fat face, beaming with glee as she sits next to Bernanke, admiring their handiwork from the cushy resorts of Jackson Hole?
Funny thing…so Chinese people basically don’t trust anybody they don’t know or are related to. So despite all the Chinese people that have already bought property in North America, there are a ton more (as of this moment) that would like to but don’t have anybody they trust.
The funny part is that my wife thinks I should get a real estate license because she has so many friends who would work with us. I know I know…don’t quit your day job.
During the gold rush a few lucky miners made fortunes ( tech workers at startups) but those who sold shovels did very well ( re agents )
A good analogy ? IDK. probably pretty fierce competition among shovel sellers.
probably pretty fierce competition among shovel sellers.
Definitely. The only reason to consider it is that there are a bunch of potential customers who don’t trust any of those sellers but think my wife is the greatest thing since boiled salad (hotpot).
LOL
I once had the pleasure of having dinner at a hotpot place the last time I visited the Santa Clara campus. It was OK, but not great.
It was OK, but not great.
I’ve kind of gotten used to it. But I think every single ingredient would taste better if prepared a different way.
This circle of friends would quickly come to hate anyone instrumental in them losing their shirts.
Good point. Even if they were determined to lose their shirts to someone regardless. We have had some discussions about why they want to buy…if it’s just for appreciation then they shouldn’t buy. But if it’s for risk hedging or school districts or just plain getting money out of China then I don’t mind helping them with that.
From The Tennessean. “The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in the Nashville area fell 3.1 percent a month during the first half of this year”
cant be, they have musicians there- I saw it on House Haters
What’s 3 times 6? And is it compounded?
“The average rent for a one-bedroom apartment in the Nashville area fell 3.1 percent a month during the first half of this year”
In six months time that’s $17.22 less for every $100. The squeeze is on for someone out there.
‘A little overbuilding can be good news for renters when their monthly payment dips, but too much is a bad thing for home values, the real-estate market and the economy’
And it’s how a recession starts during a boom.
‘More than 10,000 new apartments are underway or have recently opened’
‘Almost 29,000 new apartments are set to open in North Texas this year. Currently there are over 50,000 apartments being built in North Texas’
‘Apartment Insights says 4,004 apartments are under construction or have completed permitting in the three-county area, most in Pierce County. Another 4,251 are at earlier stages of permitting and review’
‘With more than 15,000 units under construction’
‘Currently, 16,000 apartment units are under construction in the Nashville area with 10,000 more units in various planning stages’
And yet:
‘Lazarus said only 178 new Class-B apartments were delivered across the country last year’
Speaking of Arizona, John McCain needs to resign from the Senate NOW.
Notice how most of the media ignored the Syria policy change yesterday? After all, it only means 400,000 people died there for no reason.
No so, Ben. A thriving Jeffersonian democracy will surely spring from the ruins. I mean, the Syrian Democratic Forces wouldn’t call themselves that unless they were actually lovers of freedom, would they?
Let’s give McCain a little more time. After all Gabby Giffords stayed on in the House far longer than she probably should have.
Whatever the outcome, I hope his ending (whatever form it takes) is as pain-free as possible. He’s been through enough pain already.
Imagine the pain those hundreds of thousands of deaths inflicted? Sorry, not “feeling it” for McLame.
I understand Obama is living it up with his billionaire buddies. Unfortunately for these dead Syrians (and Libyans), little did they know Obama was elected King of the world. When he said, Assad must go, they didn’t matter. I remember just after this regime change started, the jihadists set off a car bomb on a crowded street in Damascus - to kill one general. 80 civilians died and our government and media didn’t say boo.
I wonder if McCain believes in heaven and hell. I wonder if he sits there with tubes coming out of every part of his body and reflects on the many decades he spent working to set the US military on any and every country he could. Why if there is a hell, he might even be in a molten lake with old Saddam.
All of them stick around way too long. Pelosi sounds like she could use some “memory” care as described above. Shes been out of it for at least a couple of years, maybe longer - still thinks Bush is president!
John McCain needs to resign from the Senate NOW ?
Let’s at least see what the prognosis is first. President Carter beat it although this one sounds pretty aggressive.
This video pretty well demonstrates that McCain is over and out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEwjjz4TVwk
McCain wants to know what “that thing” was.
I told you he would sh*t his hospital bed:
‘McCain sends out blistering statement accusing the Trump administration of ‘playing into the hands of Putin’ on Syria hours after former POW reveals cancer diagnosis’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4715656/McCain-issues-blistering-Putin-Syria-statement.html
‘If true – and I hope it’s not – it would be a complete capitulation to Assad, Russia, and Iran,’ wrote South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham.’
Hit em with your purse Lindsey.
Yah, and how do we know McCain even said that? How do we know he even knows about it? Probably one of his staffers issued the “blistering” statement.
And Miss Lindsey is another one I won’t mourn when he moves on.
A buddy of mine told me today he felt a little guilty about being happy over the McCain news. I explained that for me, all I really want with characters like this is for them to go away. When they refuse to do so, then I wish for their demise.
I don’t even particularly wish any pain on the guy. I just want him to STFU, get out of our gov and get lost. For the good of the planet.
‘For the good of the planet’
Imagine you’ve spent decades in so called public service and this is what people think of you. What a way to waste your last years McCain.
I agree, Ben, but McCain served his war-mongering overlords well.
The problem is that most of the public still erroneously believes that their elected representatives actually serve them.
“The problem is that most of the public still erroneously believes that their elected representatives actually serve them.”
They also want to “live forever” in the next life, so they turn a blind eye while their war-mongering overlords strip-mine the country’s financial resources.
They also want to “live forever” in the next life, so they turn a blind eye while their war-mongering overlords strip-mine the country’s financial resources.
So if we were all atheists that wouldn’t be happening?
“So if we were all atheists that wouldn’t be happening?”
Nearly all of the U.S. military bases around the planet exist due to warring factions bolstered by faith that provides adults the justification to attack children and women without remorse. And our arms manufacturers enjoy the income whether it comes from foreigners looting their country’s mineral assets or from our own taxpayers as aid.
Oh… agnostic here.
“Speaking of Arizona, John McCain needs to resign from the Senate NOW.”
First, he wants to confiscate all your possessions for sedition. Phuc due process!
I just got this email:
‘Seller Says “Sell!” | Two Incredible Units in Downtown Miami’
I looked one up:
https://www.zillow.com/homes/900-BISCAYNE-BLVD,-UNIT-PH6207,-MIAMI,-FL_rb/
06/10/17 Listing removed $20,000/mo
05/25/17 Price change $3,500,000-10.3%
05/25/17 Listed for sale $3,900,000
04/23/17 Listing removed $3,900,000
04/07/17 Price change $3,900,000
01/17/17 Listed for rent $20,000/mo
12/09/16 Listing removed $20,000/mo
10/26/16 Listing removed $20,000/mo
05/24/16 Price change $3,500,000-5.4%
03/08/16 Listed for sale $3,698,000-0.0%
10/28/15 Listing removed $3,699,000
04/08/15 Listed for sale $3,699,000
03/29/12 Listing removed $24,000/mo
12/15/11 Listed for rent $24,000/mo
09/09/11 Listing removed $2,990,000
05/27/11 Listed for sale $2,990,000+70.9%
02/03/11 Sold $1,750,000
Only $50,000 a year in property taxes.
That’s a bizarre price history. It seems like one of those fantasy listings, where the flipper is delusional.
Commonplace for Miami.
‘Seller Says “Sell!”
This is one bit of realtor-speak that I truly loathe. Of course the seller said “sell”, it’s listed, isn’t it? Duh.
Here’s another one: “This one won’t last!”
Another: “Light and Bright!”
Feel free to add any worn out realtor phrases.
The lunch bunch remain in full denial, insisting that real estate in Denver can only go up. It does no good to remind them what happened the last time prices got out of whack, because this time it’s different.
Denver is gross. I can understand Aspen being expensive, Denver not so much… It seemed like Kansas when I visited.
Some of the burbs are pleasant, if a bit plastic. I just don’t get paying 700K for a 70 year old, 1200 sq ft house a few blocks off of Colorado Blvd. But you talk to those who live there and they wax on about “city living” and paying $20 for a pizza at a mom-n-pop place.
What I also saw in those inner city nabes was a lot of virtue signalling, with yard signs proudly proclaiming that there’s not “hatred” in this house.
What I also saw in those inner city nabes was a lot of virtue signalling, with yard signs proudly proclaiming that there’s not “hatred” in this house.
People do seem pretty proud when they can escape from the bigotry of their parents and implement their own instead.
“… yard signs proudly proclaiming there’s not “hatred” in this house.”
Send the occupants to me so that I can introduce them to my No Dollar Escapes Plan.
I’ll do a test or two to see just how durable these yard sign proclamations really are.
The dotted lines await.
People do seem pretty proud when they can escape from the bigotry of their parents and implement their own instead.
And make a big fuss of it.
Send the occupants to me so that I can introduce them to my No Dollar Escapes Plan.
I think most of them have already met Mr. Dotted Line.
Nobody virtue signals better than Sanctuary Maryland. Many of the SJWs are retired and/or former idealistic hippies. Well sure, it’s easy for them for be kind and generous. After all, they already paid off the house during good times, and they don’t have to compete with the masses for jobs and nobody is raiding their precious pensions for the givaways. I think they are being played for suckers.
Millennium Tower Tilting Two and a Half Inches More This Year
http://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigations/Millennium-Tower-Tilting-Two-and-a-Half-Inches-More–435280173.html
“The owners could take no solace from the latest data taken in June from the rooftop of the 58-story building. It shows since November, the structure unexpectedly tilted two and a half inches more to the west in just the first half of this year.”
Keeps tilting to the left…
When the bottom drops out of the condo prices for this leaning tower, that, too, will be “unexpected.”
A fix is in the works. All they have to do is install a proper foundation from the basement for an estimated 100-150 million. That probably means 200 million, but hey. http://www.socketsite.com/archives/2017/07/potential-fix-for-sinking-58-story-tower-identified.html
so a Marble will roll across the floor heck i can do that in this apartment but then the house is 80 years old
Low-Income Earners See Weekly Pay Gain Faster Than Other Groups
Tighter labor market appears to be leading to better pay for workers making the least
By Eric Morath
Updated July 20, 2017 3:37 p.m. ET
For the first time in years, pay for the lowest-income Americans is rising faster than for other groups.
Weekly pay for earners at the lowest 10th percentile of the wage scale rose at a faster rate last quarter, from a year earlier, than for any other group measured by the U.S. Labor Department—including those at the top of the income scales who earn five times as much.
The shift for low-income workers—including restaurant workers and retail cashiers—who make about $10.75 an hour, is a sign that a tightening labor market is delivering better pay to workers who largely haven’t shared in gains since the recession ended eight years ago, according to economists and government data. Last quarter marked the first time since late 2010 that this earning group’s gains outpaced all others, including the 90th, 75th, 50th and 25th percentiles.
Rising minimum wages in many states may have been a factor.
Usual weekly earnings for workers ages 25 and older at the bottom of the pay scale rose 3.4% from a year earlier in the second quarter, according to analysis of newly released Labor Department data. That was stronger than the median gain of 3.2% and the 3.1% improvement for workers at the 90th percentile, who earn more than nine in 10 other Americans. The percentage increases are based on a four-quarter average of earnings, to smooth out volatility in the data.
Throughout much of the economic expansion that began in mid-2009, wage gains for the lowest-earning Americans trailed behind median wage gains and those of the highest earners. The annual raise for the lowest earners was below 1% annually during 2015, less than half as strong as the median gain.
The recent improvement for low earners coincides with a downward trend in the U.S. unemployment rate, which stood at 4.4% last month, versus 4.9% a year earlier. The unemployment rate for those with less than a high-school education—who make up much of the low-wage workforce—fell even more sharply, to 6.4% last month from 7.5% a year earlier. Tighter labor supply in theory should push up wages.
Wages have been rising swiftly in fields such as restaurants, amusements and gambling, said Jed Kolko, economist at job-search site Indeed. That is an indication that employers need to pay more to attract workers into those fields.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/low-income-earners-see-weekly-pay-gain-faster-than-other-groups-1500543003
Might this be related to all of the recent minimum wage bumps?
My guess is once the busy summer moving season is over the apartment companies will start to realize they can’t meet their projected occupancy rates (looks like most aren’t already with the freebies) and will actually start to slash monthly rents to attract customers in addition to the concessions. A monthly rent cut is way more attractive than a free month at a much higher rate.
Once they start cutting actual monthly rents the real downhill slide starts…
if 2% default is the b/e for some banks,what’s the b/e for and apartment or office buildings.
It’s different this time.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/20/bitcoin-bubble-dwarfs-tulip-mania-from-400-years-ago-elliott-wave.html
Even in 1912, cartoonists saw what a racket the Federal Reserve would become.
https://mishtalk.com/2017/07/19/crazy-fed-cartoons-from-1912-vs-today/
Goldman Sachs could be about to tighten its stranglehold on global markets
Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
President Trump is reportedly considering naming economic advisor Gary Cohn, former president of Goldman Sachs, to head the Federal Reserve.
His appointment would make the Fed the third major world central bank currently led by a former top Goldman executive.
Cohn would bring market experience to the job, but lacks any real foundation in monetary policy.
Goldman Sachs may be on the verge of consolidating its gradual takeover of global central banking, but there’s so much other stuff going on that hardly anyone is paying attention.
Thankfully, my colleague and fellow long-time Fed-watcher Simon Kennedy at Bloomberg was on the case after Politico reported Donald Trump is ready to hand over the central bank’s reins to the former president of Goldman Sachs, who is currently director of the National Economic Council.
Indeed, Cohn is a former president of Goldman Sachs. The current heads of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank both worked at Goldman, although Mark Carney actually made a career of it while Mario Draghi just racked up a few million bucks over three years. New York Fed President William Dudley is a former Goldman partner, while Robert Kaplan and Neel Kashkari, presidents respectively of the Dallas and Minneapolis Fed banks, both used to work at the megabank.
Recall, Trump ran his campaign on an anti-Wall Street agenda. “The hedge fund guys didn’t build this country. These are guys that shift paper around and they get lucky,” he told Face the Nation as a candidate. In a campaign ad, he went directly after Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein, calling him the embodiment of the global elites that “have robbed our working class.”
Since the election, Trump has embraced Wall Street advisors including Cohn, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and several others.
http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-considering-goldmans-cohn-for-fed-but-its-a-bad-idea-2017-7
ok this is funny
People Are Freaking Out Over This Instagram Picture of Caitlyn Jenner and Steven Tyler
http://www.mediaite.com/online/people-are-freaking-out-over-this-instagram-picture-of-caitlyn-jenner-and-steven-tyler/
Can’t deny that’s a great photo… designed to stir maximum outrage amongst the easily appalled.
Sister Rosetta Tharpe - Up Above My Head
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeaBNAXfHfQ
You’re Dead Norma Tanega 1966
Norma Cecilia Tanega (born 30 January 1939, Vallejo, California) was an American folk/pop singer. She was a camp counselor in the Catskills when she signed to New Voice Records in 1966. Her debut single, “Walkin’ My Cat Named Dog”, hit #22 on the U.S. Billboard Hot 100 chart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImAlx0amAIc
‘Norma Tanega “Walkin’ My Cat Named Dog”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPZVrmJ2HH8
I like the first one better.
what market tanks the fastest from 7/17 to 7/18 /
miami
chicago
nyc
dc
any thoughts
Keep an eye on the yield curve and how it relates to the cost of mortgage money.
I’m not so certain things are going to tank as much as stagnate and bounce around their current levels.
For most people, housing is a place to live and not an investment. If you already own a home and can afford it, then the day to day chatter about the market is nothing but noise. I remember mortgages rates plummeted in 1986 and then rose in 1987. During 1987, as I recall, there was not much activity as the higher interest rates tended to keep people in place - it was really hard to justify moving if you were going to pay a higher rate your financing.
Like it or not, residential real estate is a levered asset class, so keep an eye on the yield curve.
DC. The debt ceiling plus the new budget this fall will be a tell tale sign to get the heck outta dodge. Old Fed workers will realize they need to cash out, and now D.C. has a problem getting young workers to move here - because who wants to move for a job that will just get cut?
NYC, SF, Chicago have a nice mix of finance, fed, private industry tech or entertainment jobs to keep the local economy moving (somewhat) along. DC is a one trick pony town.
10-4
chighetto has the fastest and worst-est tax liability
they gave teachers a 17% raise=BK
Old Fed workers will realize they need to cash out, and now D.C. has a problem getting young workers to move here - because who wants to move for a job that will just get cut?
Isn’t that true about any job? Recurring layoffs are a way of life in the private sector, and from what I’ve read, younger workers are used to changing jobs every 1-2 years, in fact many don’t even like staying around longer than that.
Even with its looming job cuts, I think that .gov job will still have far more job security than a comparable job in Corporate America.
Sure. A younger worker who is mobile will come out and leave if/when their budget gets cut. However uprooting someone with a family with a spouse who already has a good job will be difficult. Take ESPN for instance. They are laying off a ton and on shaky ground. Would you move to Bristol for a job? If I’m single sure - but if I have any hopes of longevity for the job I probably wouldn’t.
I just believe there will be massive cuts to the Fed budget in the fall time. This WH needs a win, and it won’t happen with tax cuts or health care.
However uprooting someone with a family with a spouse who already has a good job will be difficult.
How about someone who just got their walking papers from Corporate America.
Whether or not there is a culling in the ranks of .gov personnel remains to be seen. I suspect that the contractors would get the ax first. My BIL works for the Bureau of Reclamation and as far as I can tell he isn’t worried at all.
Ok i was offered a job at Espn bristol when i was laid off from WTNH 8 in new haven….
Downsides you have no life, espn was expecting you to work and work and travel for weeks on end someone had to cover all the sporting events so they would fly people from bristol to Vail instead of hiring locals
But you could easily make more in OT then your base pay. Not a good job if you have animals or a wife/GF or commitments.
——————-
Take ESPN for instance. They are laying off a ton and on shaky ground. Would you move to Bristol for a job? If I’m single sure - but if I have any hopes of longevity for the job I probably wouldn’t.
Out of that list, Miami appears to have the most condos, which are usually more volatile in price.
@AltFacts
On second thought…
@AltFacts