A Little Bit More Supply Than Demand
A report from the Denver Post in Colorado. “The Denver area’s apartment building frenzy will slow next year as demand for new high-end developments wanes and financing for new projects gets tighter, say economists and industry leaders. Those in the industry agree that Denver’s high-end apartment market is oversaturated. ‘The reality is that (the industry is) building high-end apartments, and that is not where the majority of people moving to Denver can afford to move,’ said Tim Walsh, CEO and founder of Confluence Companies, a real estate development company.”
The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Seems like every year someone predicts a slowdown in North Texas apartment building. And every year, the number of rental units on the way in the Dallas-Fort Worth area grows. But when one of the country’s biggest apartment builders says he thinks the construction cycle in D-FW has topped out, it pays to listen.”
“At midyear, more than 50,000 apartments were being built in the area — one of the largest numbers of new units on the way in any market in the country. ‘Supply has peaked,’ says Steve Bancroft, senior managing director of Dallas-based Trammell Crow Residential. ‘There is a little bit more supply than demand today.’”
The Real Deal on New York. “According to this week’s market reports, Manhattan had the nation’s biggest residential rent decrease. Manhattan tied with the city of Lubbock, Texas, for the biggest rent decrease in the nation in July, registering a 3.1 percent year-over-year slide to $4,054 per month. Brooklyn came in at No. 7, with a 1.6 percent decrease to $2,712.”
The Press and Sun Bulletin in New York. “A former cigar factory in Binghamton’s First Ward will soon be home to 97 market-rate housing units and business space, turning the now vacant building into an industrial loft apartment complex, Broome County Executive Jason Garnar and Binghamton Mayor Richard David announced Monday. In 2016, Paulus Development began turning the former factory in Syracuse into an 89-unit apartment complex with commercial space on the first floor. That project, which received $900,000 in state funding through the REDC, is expected to open in August of this year.”
“Faced with a student housing glut, the city will no longer offer payment-in-lieu-of-taxes (PILOT) agreements to future student housing complexes, David has said in the past. ‘In the city, we have made a commitment to move away from big-box student housing projects,’ and toward market-rate buildings, David said.”
From Curbed Miami on Florida. “The gorgeous 321 Ocean penthouse in Miami Beach has returned to the market with a new price tag of one dollar under $35 million. It initially listed for $53 million in December 2015, six months after its owners purchased the five-bedroom unit for $20 million. In January, it received an extensive chop, getting reduced to $39.5 million.”
The Milwaukee Biz in Wisconsin. “In June, Capri Communities LLC filed plans with the Village of Menomonee Falls to build a 226-unit senior living facility. The development is in addition to the 321 units Brookfield-based Capri announced it would be adding in Germantown, Port Washington and the East Side of Milwaukee since January. But the company is not alone. Senior living operators across southeastern Wisconsin and the country are ramping up their expansion efforts as the oldest baby boomers are just beginning to need the services their companies can provide.”
“And many of the facilities elderly people are moving into today have far more amenities than the nursing home your grandparents lived in. The idea of giving seniors more than a bed and three square meals a day has resonated with Capri Communities founder James Tarantino and other operators. Today’s senior living complexes are a hybrid of luxury apartment, four-star hotel and health care facility. Amenities offered in new developments include wine rooms, heated therapy pools, salons and spas, bocce ball courts, putting greens and common areas where residents can host holiday parties and book clubs.”
“‘That will be a 20-year run of higher demand that has not even taken off yet,’ said Milo Pinkerton, founder of the largest senior living provider in the state. ‘I don’t think we’ve overbuilt the market. Twenty years from now, maybe we’ll be overbuilt like the apartment market is today.’”
‘At midyear, more than 50,000 apartments were being built in the area — one of the largest numbers of new units on the way in any market in the country. ‘Supply has peaked,’ says Steve Bancroft’
Bzzz, wrong answer Steve. The peak will be when the 50,000 under construction are finished.
Wow. Interfacing the staggering oversupply of shelter with the obscene pension problem and likely property tax hikes leaves one wondering how low prices can go in the future. #crateringdallas
I spent the night in downtown Dallas earlier this year. There were 12,000 area apartments and condos for rent on craigslist at that time.
#crateringdallas
Anagram: Texas Taxes
‘Today’s senior living complexes are a hybrid of luxury apartment, four-star hotel and health care facility. Amenities offered in new developments include wine rooms, heated therapy pools, salons and spas, bocce ball courts, putting greens and common areas’
Must be a lot of rich seniors out there.
There are plenty of rich, very soon-to-be old geezers out there, ripe for the plucking.
They rode the demographic wave to success.
Tarantino and Pinkerton are likely correct. Boomers are quite used to spending money and living high on the hog. They are the Club Med generation.
With all due respect, MacBeth, that is a clueless statement. In the retirement community that dominates this area, there is quite a range of older folks, from smug, affluent, arrogant seniors riding around in their golf carts to those on social security only who can’t even afford insurance for their cars if they break down. I gave one such little old lady a lift one day from the grocery store back to her run down condo which she inherited from her parents (with her out of work loaf of a son waiting at the doorway).
The affluent ones may be more high profile, but they are not the majority.
Sun City? It does not have the reputation for senior hedonism that another community around here does.
Actually it was Kings Point where she lived. It’s considered part of Sun City Center because it shares the same zip code and is a 55+ community, but it is, in fact, a different community. It’s gated and it is all condo. People “buy” a place there for the privilege of paying $400.00 a month or more in fees. No kidding.
“Oh, but they take care of everything outside the four walls! We don’t have to paint, roof, landscape and wow, the amenities! We’ve got the gate, the pools, the clubhouse, the tennis courts, blah, blah. And if we want to travel, we just lock the door and go!”
Here’s a Kings Point story, remember this, snake?
http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/investigators-womans-body-kept-in-sun-city-center-condo-freezer-more-than/1172013
“Allan Dunn, who committed suicide at 86, had told neighbors his wife was in a nursing home.
But when the sisters went into his fetid apartment Tuesday afternoon, Kingsbury made a gruesome discovery: a body in a chest freezer on the porch.
Investigators believe it could be Dunn’s wife, Margaret, and that he kept her death secret more than a decade so he could collect her benefits.”
“Investigators believe it could be Dunn’s wife, Margaret, and that he kept her death secret more than a decade so he could collect her benefits.”
Hehe… don’t forget about her vote.
Kudos for giving the lady a ride home, palmetto. Plenty of starving older boomers out there. Just go to the grocery store during the day. They wander the store several times, probably just to peoplewatch, but there are only a few things in baby-seat section of the cart.
Starving Boomers are so prevalent, it’s become too depressing to go shopping any more. Let’s see.., coffee.., toilet paper!? Toilet paper.., coffee..?
Oxide, I’ve noticed the same situation here in CA. regarding seniors on an obvious fixed income shopping early morning in the supermarkets with a sparse basket.
it breaks your heart. at least mine, anyways.
I’ve pondered if I should offer to pay for their groceries but I think they might get offended as if they are a charity case.
So I just exchange pleasantries .. . you can tell they are probably happy to speak to someone as I know they appreciate my stunning wit & movie star looks . . as we all are here in the promised land!
I had someone pay for my groceries once. I think I may have told the story. It was around Christmas time and I had been doing some work around the house and I looked like a real bum (more than normal), all messy and everything. I dashed into the local Big Lots to grab some cheap staples and when I got to the counter, discovered I didn’t have quite enough cash to pay for everything and I didn’t want to use my card.
So I gave back a couple of sleeves of bagels or something and the cashier points to a young man behind me and told me he’d taken care of it. He looked like a military guy in civvies, an American of Euro-Hispanic descent. Gave me a big grin and said “Merry Christmas!” I was stunned, then thanked him profusely because I knew he meant well. I was mortified, though, and slunk out of the store with a mental note to myself not to leave the house looking like a bum, even if I’m in the middle of work.
Plenty of seniors make a ritual of shopping every day for something to do. You don’t always need that much. No reason to load up the cart with Cheetos and pop like the poors on ebt day.
I’m glad Palmetto mentioned this again, because my first thought on reading these comments was that it’s really easy to misinterpret what you see in others.
It’s actually pretty offensive to assume that other people are charity cases and go around “helping” people who never asked for it.
Right. And you can pick a golf cart up on CL for about a grand. So not sure that’s the bar for gauging affluence..?
+1 Now it’s owning an NFL team.
Plenty of seniors make a ritual of shopping every day for something to do. You don’t always need that much.
True but here i see a bunch get on the bus after 9 am rush hour, go to a senior center which is right on the bus line too, then take the bus back maybe the park/shopping later and walk home, all while they still have a very decent car in the garage.
Smug means, to those who hear thatword from those who use that word:
‘I am incapable of aspiring to or even imagining myself at their (Smug people) level of competence.’
I don’t know of insurance that covers breakdowns outside of extended warranties. Calling a warranty insurance isn’t much of a stretch, but neither was figuring your bombastic tirade based on one womans ride in your car shod define a generational majority.
She’s a snowflake with a noflake living with her.
I don’t think that most people equate smugness with competence. Many rich people inherited their wealth, and some of them are smug without being particularly competent at anything. Other people are rich and competent without being smug.
Also, it’s unclear why an old lady without who can’t afford a card should be called a snowflake. That sounds like another word that’s losing its meaning through misuse.
Competence to have maintained the value which is missing from the caller of Smug.
She inherited the house which alludes to a windfall, and is STILL too broke to subsist, and has raised a turd child despite the allusion the OP made to her windfall inheritance.
Some people go nowhere ever, and call those who do manage to manage, ’smug’.
I’m sorry you only know one phase of competence and do not recognize generational losers when presented.
It’s not a matter of them being broke, it’s a matter of them languishing in it.
Some love their position. If she didn’t love hers, the turd noflake would have a job.
Snowflakes can, according to mantra, ‘be anything they want to be’.
She wants to be this way.
Thus, snowflake.
You’re really going after this poor old woman based on very little information. The animosity towards the poor is amazing. A fairly small portion, around one-quarter, of the jobs in America are actually good jobs. As a result, many Americans are going to work as hard as they can possibly work and end up poor in their old age.
Competence to have maintained the value which is missing from the caller of Smug.
Some people go nowhere ever, and call those who do manage to manage, ’smug’.
According to this theory, no one is smug, or it’s never reasonable to call someone smug.
The animosity towards the poor is amazing.
someone brought up mr. potter yesterday. you’re the george bailey of our times. and yes, bailey was the bad guy.
No.
I bring up the incompetence of our OP and his snap analysis and effort to hero-ize such commonalityas the dysfunctional poor, all the while blaming her plight on all those who accomplished more than she: the Smug.
I simply exposed a local fraud (op) as using an old woman and her child as bait in his little class war.
Golf Carts as trappings of success? Some of you are so broke and helpless about it…and blameful of those folks with even golf carts….
Golf Carts.
Triggered, I tell ya, triggered!
I didn’t say they were the majority, did I? No, I didn’t.
What I did say was that there are plenty of them. Which there are.
With 50+ million Boomers running around, a majority is not needed. 10-15 million well-heeled Boomers is more than enough.
“Boomers are quite used to spending money and living high on the hog. They are the Club Med generation.”
That’s what you said. You indicted an entire generation. And you wouldn’t be the first.
The broader point is, TPTB have succeeded. Young against old, men vs. women, white vs blackbrownyellow, gay vs. straight, middle class vs. richpoor, normies vs freakspedoscucks, gov vs citizens. etc, etc, etc.
The long march through the institutions has reached the end stage.
There are enough affluent upcoming retirees to keep a magazine like Where to Retire in business. And wow do they make it look so idllyic: pages and pages showing golf courses, running on the beach with grandchildren, or the new trendy retirement spots like houses surrounding a farm, condos near entertainment towns, mountain towns, sports towns, biking towns, river towns with rafting… etc. Of course they are all happy couples without a single health problem.
Boomers have long been wealthy as a generation. No doubt about it.
No generation has benefitted more from demographics; no generation has squandered more fiscal and social good will than Boomers.
They were paid better and paid more earlier, they had access to higher positions within companies and institutions at earlier ages. Many had access to pensions and get those pensions now, in retirement. They had access to cheap housing and education.
There are plenty of Boomers sitting in $400,000+ homes for which they paid $75,000 back in 1980. A return much higher than the rate of inflation. There are plenty making $60,000-$120,000 in annual pensions. There are plenty who have ample retirement savings, despite two massive trouncings. Someone who starting investing in stocks in 1985 and kept at it has made much more than the traditional 10% annually.
They’re dead broke Debt Donkeys.
Older baby boomers caught all the breaks
By John Waggoner, USA TODAY
In a generation as sprawling as the baby boomers, you’re bound to notice some big differences. And the main difference is probably this: The older boomers, exemplified by the 62-year-olds who will start retiring this year, occupy a demographic sweet spot that most younger boomers can’t match.
The first of the baby boom generation — those 79 million people born from 1946 through 1964 — are just starting to reach the age when they can tap Social Security.
And those older ones got all the good toys:
•Cheaper houses. A boomer born in 1946 who bought her home in 1976, at age 30, would have paid about $39,300, according to the Census Bureau. That’s equal to $145,200 now, adjusted for inflation. By contrast, a boomer born in 1964 who also bought his first house 30 years later would have paid $130,000, or $174,000 in inflation-adjusted dollars.
•Better retirement benefits. Early boomers are more likely to have a traditional “defined-benefit” pension from their employer than younger boomers are, notes Ron Gebhardtsbauer, senior pension fellow for the American Academy of Actuaries. Unlike 401(k) plans, traditional pensions require no contributions from the employee; all money comes from their employer. Older boomers qualified for “great pensions at a young age,” he says, in addition to 401(k) accounts, which arrived later.
About 39% of all private-sector employees were beneficiaries of traditional pension plans in 1980, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute; that figure fell to 18% by 2006, the last year for which figures are available.
Traditional pensions guarantee a payment for life, even though the value of that pension typically diminishes because of inflation. But younger boomers generally have only 401(k) retirement savings plans. And they’re likely to live longer than older boomers, thereby facing a higher risk of running out of money before they die.
•Superior investment returns. A boomer who started investing in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index 30 years ago would have received a 12.95% average annual return, according to Lipper. One who started investing 20 years ago would have earned an average 11.8% a year. The difference in return might not seem like much. But it’s huge over time. If you invested $100 a month in the S&P 500 starting 30 years ago, you’d have $329,000 now. If you started 20 years ago, you’d have $74,500. Sure, you’d have put in $12,000 less, but you’d need an average annual return of 14.4% for the next 10 years, or you’d need to put in a lot more than $100 a month, to catch up.
•Better jobs. By the time younger boomers joined the workforce, their numerous older brothers and sisters had already filled many of the jobs, which meant that younger boomers had to work harder to find jobs.
By contrast, when David Jones, 62, entered the workforce, he says, many of his co-workers were much older, and lots of entry-level positions were available.
“I came in young, and in some ways, I was able to work my way up the ladder a little faster,” says Jones, a part-time professor at South University in Savannah, Ga.
And, notes Susie Cooke (above, left), a 61-year-old retiree from Tampa, companies were more likely to provide their employees with good benefits when she first started working.
“By the time I retired, workers were just another piece of property,” Cooke says.
and even the affluent ones, like my brother and I won’t be pissing our money away on bocci courts.
If you were affluent, a bocci court wouldn’t seem inconceivable as a daily device.
Some of you tell such tales.
What would you spend it on?
Are you leaving it to the next generation or did you just tell us you can’t afford bocci?
“What would you spend it on?”
(Trigger warning)
GOLF CARTS!
Perhaps he’ll spend it on an olden year nursing home. The kind with cinder block walls, painted institutionalized green. Where a curtain separates you from your roommates.
Or, maybe he’ll spend it at Walmart.
LOL.
More likely, he’ll blow thousands annually at the local casino. Or on a Prius or Lexus. Or a higher end senior living facility. Or on household help (after all, someone has to clean that 3,000 square foot home that just he and his wife live in). Or on plastic surgery. Or on the latest technological gadgetry. Or on a cruise to the Caribbean or Alaska. Or at restaurants and coffeehouses.
“There are plenty of rich, very soon-to-be old geezers out there, ripe for the plucking.”
Rich and not-so-rich. It matters not, the plucking will ensue.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
This statement is either a joke, or woefully misinformed. Most boomers don’t even have $50,000 in retirement funds.
No, it isn’t misinformed. It’s actually very well informed.
It doesn’t matter what the average net worth of the average Boomer is. That’s not the argument being made here.
What DOES matter is that there are more than enough wealthy Boomers out there to move into high-end retirement facilities built now.
There’s plenty of Boomers out there rich enough to be fleeced. Millions of them.
Who do you think is collecting the $60,000-$100,000+ annual pensions? Who do you think is taking out all the long-term care policies? Who do you think goes on annual cruises to the Caribbean? Who do you think goes to the ever-present casinos to blow thousands annually in slot machines?
How do you think sells their properties now for 3-10x more than they purchased them for in 1980? Who do you think is sitting on a $500,000+ long-ago paid-up property in California, Florida, New York?
It ain’t Gen-X and Millennials, that’s for sure.
Who do you think is collecting the $60,000-$100,000+ annual pensions? The oldest Baby Boomers are turning 71 this year. So they probably make up less than half of these people.
“What DOES matter is that there are more than enough wealthy Boomers out there to move into high-end retirement facilities built now.”
Well not really…. not at all. The loaded boomer narrative was a myth. There were a few that drove the bubble that eventually imploded in 2006 because…… there weren’t any more “loaded boomers”.
Can’t I just finance this with a long term low interest government backed loan?
‘Today’s senior living complexes are a hybrid of luxury apartment, four-star hotel and health care facility. Amenities offered in new developments include wine rooms, heated therapy pools, salons and spas, bocce ball courts, putting greens and common areas’
I call BS. That’s way too much of a generality. Depends on the “senior living” facility. The description above is the exception, not the rule.
In this part of Florida, there are 55+ apartment complexes, yes. The majority are dismal, blank looking apartments dressed up with some bright paint, a spiffy leasing office and a fancy pagoda out front with a couple of benches. Maybe there’s a room to play cards. Maybe a pool. Most of them don’t even have patios or balconies. Sometimes the hallways stink of urine.
They are primarily designed to siphon off social security checks and meager pensions. Warehouses for elderly bodies. Read some of the reviews written by the children of parents who live in these places. Some of them are horrific. Elevators that don’t work. People on walkers trying to get down the stairs. Air conditioning that goes out and doesn’t get fixed for days.
The leasing agents/managers are all friendly and helpful until the resident moves in, and then they either get nasty or ignore pleas for help.
That description is spot-on. The ones I’ve been in make me afraid to be elderly. And it’s hard to work in places like that, too.
palmetto,
Have to wonder what if any role HOA’s play in that ever downward spiral in living standards for seniors?
Where we currently live, upscale over 55 community, the pressure to keep up one’s residence is as intense as it is detailed. As savings dwindle ( along w/ spouses ) everyone seems to get priced out eventually.
Our retired ( 90 y.o retired graphic designer ) neighbor mentioned getting constant pressure to paint his exterior and spread bark dust. He openly admitted he just doesn’t have the money!
Yah, I think you’re on to something here, DinOR.
The weird thing about the one community, Sun City, it was originally designed and built back in the 1960s by Del Webb (there’s one in Arizona as well) for middle class retirees to have a nice, modest, relatively low cost place to retire to with some activities etc.
You would not believe what they’re asking for those little concrete block shacks now, not to mention the fees, etc. And as you’ve mentioned, the HOA harassment in some cases. Morphed into a monster, or so it seems.
Heck, a simple deeded rv lot in a 55+ area can run into the hundreds of thousands!
Or a couple hundred bucks which is about all it’s worth.
“Or a couple hundred bucks which is about all it’s worth.”
That’s what it should be worth, not what it’s selling for.
Correction… That’s what it is worth.
Remember…. I can ask $50k for my 10 year old Honda Civic but where is the buyer at that price?
So it is with all grossly inflated prices.
“Master Suite on main floor” is the selling line in most real estate listings these days!! Second is: “no stairs”.
Fernandina Beach, FL Housing Prices CRATER 8% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/fernandina-beach-fl/market-trends/
‘Manhattan tied with the city of Lubbock, Texas, for the biggest rent decrease in the nation in July, registering a 3.1 percent year-over-year slide’
And of course these aren’t effective rents including concessions and vacancies. For instance, in Midland Texas apartment effective rents are down 25%.
I’ve been intrigued about value of non-voting, non-dividend paying stocks. Here are a couple of other objects, one virtual, one physical, which some people are willing to pay for.
For 20 Years, This Man Has Survived Entirely by Hacking Online Games
Vice Motherboard
by: Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai
Jul 29 2017
I’m watching this hack in a demo video recorded by Manfred as I stand next to him in a Las Vegas bar on Thursday. Manfred, who asked me not to reveal his real name, says he has been hacking several video games for 20 years, making a real-life living by using hacks like the one I just witnessed. His modus operandi has changed slightly from game to game, but, in essence, it consisted of tricking games into giving him items or currency he doesn’t have a right to have. He would then sell those items and currency to other players (for real money) or wholesales them to online gray markets, such as the Internet Game Exchange, that then would sell those goods to individual players.
At the current exchange rate, Manfred estimates he has $397 trillion worth of WildStar gold. This is obviously an outlandish number, but, essentially, his income was only limited by the real-life market for the in-game currency.
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/59p7qd/this-man-has-survived-by-hacking-mmo-online-games
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Why Did This Penny Sell For A Record-Breaking $2.6 Million?
by: Cheryl Eddy
Gizmodo io9
January 12, 2015
That’s right: this ultra-rare 1792 “Birch Cent,” named for engraver Robert Birch, just raked in nearly $2.6 million at a Florida auction. What allows a one cent coin to fetch such a high price?
Ultra-rare is probably not even good enough of a descriptor; according to a Reuters report on the sale, it was “among the first pennies struck for the United States, part of a series of prototype coins. Only 10 are believed to exist.”
http://io9.gizmodo.com/why-did-this-penny-sell-for-a-record-breaking-2-6-mill-1679092493
“I’ve been intrigued about value of non-voting, non-dividend paying stocks. Here are a couple of other objects, one virtual, one physical, which some people are willing to pay for.”
I’ve long been intrigued about the value of paintings done by famous artists which are talked about in hushed tones but are then discovered to be forgeries and then the hushed tones are replaced by out cries of anger.
The painting remains the same, all that changes are perceptions and the perceived values that are associated with these perceptions.
Sometimes perceptions remain no matter what the evidence.
Some of those who put great faith in scientifically proven dating techniques will explain-away the findings if these findings conflict with their belief system. The Shroud of Turin is an example of this phenom: Dating techniques have proven that The Shroud could not possibly be the burial cloth of Jesus Christ because dating techniques have proven that the cloth is not old enough.
Nevertheless the belief that The Shroud is indeed the burial cloth of Jesus Christ persists.
uhhhh who is this “Mr. Banker”? what have you done with the real Mr. Banker?!?
be warned; our esteemed blog leader has a reliable moped that can & will make long road trips to ferret out puke imposters.
and you’ll never see him coming as he has a unassuming realtor getup over a bland midwestern country boy persona.
release mr banker now before we release our own rhinestone cowboy to go wichita lineman on yer arze!
This is indeed the true Mr. Banker who lives in your head and will soon live in your bank account AND in your pension fund.
Bahahahanahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
if you are going to live in my head better chip-in for rent before the other voices get jealous
he has been hacking several
video gamesmarkets for 20 years, making a real-life living by using hacks like the one I just witnessed.His modus operandi has changed slightly from game to game, but, in essence, it consisted of tricking
gamescentral banks into giving him items or currency he doesn’t have a right to have.He would then sell those items and currency to other players (for real money) or wholesales them to online gray markets
Mr. Banker, I was struck by this fellow’s similarity to your business model
One slight edit:
His modus operandi has changed slightly from game to game, but, in essence, it consisted of tricking
gamescentral banks into giving him items or currency he doesn’t have a right to have[after his schemes blow implode].I’d throw a couple of large pods into the swimming pool when I visit gramps at the senior living facility just to see if anyone noticed . . . !!
. . . maybe introduce myself around as “Walter” . . w/ a twinkle in my eye
A Cocoon reference! Good one.
Palmy you musta had yer coffee. nice catch!
weak rents as taxes go up and counties are spending every dime. Counties are spending like they are harvesting refine $ straight from the homeowners-next yrs going to sck
Ten years ago yesterday, the first cracks appeared in the financial system’s facade.
Today, there’s much more government and central bank insurance of financial markets. The central banks may have not been officially given the Third Mandate of financial market stability, but they seem to have taken it regardless.
Ten years ago today, people weren’t that worried about impending financial doom
Quartz
By: Jason Karaian John Detrixhe, Eshe Nelson
August 09, 2017
Ten years ago today, all was not well with the global financial system. On Aug. 9, 2007 BNP Paribas froze more than $2 billion in funds, barring investors from withdrawing their money due to a “complete evaporation of liquidity in certain market segments.”
This marked the beginning of a dangerous new phase in what eventually developed into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Central banks scrambled to prop up money markets, banks, and other investors rushed to dump subprime-laced securities, and trust between market players completely evaporated. About a year later, Lehman Brothers collapsed and then things got really scary.
https://qz.com/1049935/global-financial-crisis-anniversary-ten-years-ago-today-people-werent-that-worried-about-impending-financial-doom/
Ahhh yes…good times…
“…Those in the industry agree that Denver’s high-end apartment market is oversaturated. ‘The reality is that (the industry is) building high-end apartments, and that is not where the majority of people moving to Denver can afford to move,’…”
My sister’s condo is in the Governor’s Mansion area. I am wondering if it is in competition with the new high-end apartments in Denver, and if so, whether market value is negatively impacted.
This site is bordered by Colorado Blvd, the VA hospital at background, and 9th and 11th Avenues:
http://www.picpaste.com/20170810_122011.jpg
If we get the contract for the other buildings, I could be working here for years…
Looks much like a site in The OC where I attended a soccer game a couple of nights ago, apparently the location of the former El Toro MCAS. We’re talking miles upon miles of flat, undeveloped land in a prime location, ready to get converted into highly congested, butt-ugly California McMansion tract home developments.
http://www.cityofirvine.org/orange-county-great-park
no activity on the house flip around the corner from me at corner of woodmore oaks & stone canyon circle at $349k
price already dropped $10k in barely 30 days. other houses over $300 thou are also sitting dormant.
I can feel a great disturbance in the force, like a thousand real estate agent school moms crying-out as they apply for (shudder) reduced/free lunches, leased mercedes are repoed & iPhones get shut off!
Just like everywhere else. Cratering demand with a tsunami of inventory.
I looked that property up on the MLS, it’s the one right on the corner, no? It’s been on the market 29 days which is shockingly long for Sac. It doesn’t look like it has any glaring issues except being a corner lot…and the fact that a place around the corner with 500 more sf is pending for only 10k more.
Deezy
the property has been on the market at least 3-4 months overall.
the prior owner had some funky signs in 5gal buckets scattered around the yard! unclear if he finally sold to a flipper for $290ish (after price reductions) or just hired a professional real estate company who promptly raised the price. then lowered it.
public record chain of custody is somewhat vague but that property is in a VERY noisy location as the adjacent 4-way stop gets all the bass thumpers, motorcycle pipes, 2:00am racers, etc.
also the large church directly behind with people using the basketball courts echoing non-stop. and creepy Pokemon Go oddballs wandering around.
maybe a fluke property but time will tell.
“The gorgeous 321 Ocean penthouse in Miami Beach has returned to the market with a new price tag of one dollar under $35 million. It initially listed for $53 million in December 2015, six months after its owners purchased the five-bedroom unit for $20 million. In January, it received an extensive chop, getting reduced to $39.5 million.”
_____________________________/
Looking at the photos of that place, not only is it clear that no one has ever lived there, but it’s clear that no one is intended to live there.
321 Ocean penthouse
$20 ——————> $53 —————> now asking $35
If sold at $27 the net gain is 25%. Not too shabby for two years.
Miami waterfront properties rose 300% - 400% since 1998.
“If sold” is the key. There’s a 20 year supply of air boxes in this price range and many more on the way.
‘Another tech titan joins Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg in supporting free cash handouts for Americans’
‘Musk thinks universal basic income is a going to be a virtual necessity as more and more low-skilled jobs are replaced by robots and automation.’
‘Altman agrees. “I’m fairly confident that at some point in the future, as technology continues to eliminate traditional jobs and massive new wealth gets created, we’re going to see some version of [UBI] at a national scale,” he writes. He’s working on a pilot program in Oakland, Calif., to study how people behave when they are given such payments.’
‘continues to eliminate traditional jobs and massive new wealth gets created’
It’s gonna be another twitter.
Ben,
You’re such an optimist! Not sure what agenda they’re driving here b/c I don’t think either truly believes in handouts ( unless *they* are the recipients! )
Seems like so much string pushing to hype the automation they can’t seem to stop peddling.
Eliminating jobs=creating “massive wealth”. Massive? When the media starts throwing words like that around I put my hand on my wallet.
We’ve seen this before: does anyone remember the hype about the segway? Oh it’s going to change cities forever! Here’s a “shocking prediction” (like you see on yahoo all the time):
In ten years I’ll still be driving my car. There will be paper in my office. People will still be going to work. New paradigm crap suggests more money than ideas, like one guy said the other day. There’s too much Yellen bucks floating around looking for a place to die. And I worked for a dotcom right before it collapsed. I observed a simple explanation that accompanies this: drugs. Many of these people do a lot of drugs, some of it hard drugs. They get a little detached from reality.
“They get a little detached from reality.”
Drugs and possibly a college degree will do that.
I’m not joking. I saw it. Young people who have a straw up their nose every night, half awake at 11 AM and being paid huge amounts of money to look at their phones all day. Massive wealth! Titans! “We are losing money hand over fist with apps for people scrubbing toilets for strangers or driving cabs for less than minimum wage, it’s the new thing!” Jeebus this has delusion written all over it.
You’d have to be on heavy drugs to talk like SpaceBoi Elon.
You have to be heavy on drugs to “hustle”
I FRIGGIN’ HATE THAT WORD!
Ben;
I worked in sub-prime mortgages in late 1990s, before It got crazy and I remember being out drinking with the boss and others. I drove home a little “tipsy.” he was poured into a car and driven home. That was at closing time 2 am. He called at 9 am the next morning wanting to know about some marketing #s. I was still a bit hung over and he sounded like a world beater. To this day I don’t know what he was on but it had to be GOOD!
I worked at an insurance company once. At a Christmas dinner one woman pulled me aside and was telling me about a previous boss who at the end of the day would break out big bags of coke, every night. They would sit in the office for hours snorting away. It sounded like something from the wolf of wall street.
“looking for a place to die” Lol
Certainly hope you had the decency to buy the guy beer! Yeah, the Segway.., didn’t that guy..? On all other points, absolutely agreed.
If we’ve gone paperless, why do I still have filing cabinets in my office? The touted tech advancements aren’t living up to the happy talk.
I heard the other day a car drove itself across the country. OK, how many people were fluttering around it being paid gobs of money? Sure it can be done, but wouldn’t it be a lot cheaper to just hire a truck? Way back I had a discussion with a troll where I said I knew the dotcom would bust when broadband wasn’t getting taken up as predicted. “Ah ha!” the troll said, “now it is widespread so you were wrong!” So where is drkoop.com? Pets.com? My observation was that new things can be possible but not all the horse-hockey ideas build around them.
I think it really comes down to the potential for the new ideas to make our lives meaningfully better, or dramatically less costly. Those are the ideas that take off.
Did Webvan really make that much of a difference in people’s lives? You still need to take the time to choose your goods on the website. So, you avoid the 30 minute drive and walk around the grocery store (where you get to hand-pick produce). Big whoop.
Blue Apron? Really? Buy a cookbook, go to Kroger.
Snap? C’mon.
Perhaps they’ll make some money, but they don’t make people’s lives dramatically better or much cheaper to live.
More Yellen bucks gone to money heaven:
‘Snap tumbles in choppy trading as user growth disappoints Wall Street — again’
but wouldn’t it be a lot cheaper to just hire a truck?
They said that about a lot of things, Ben. Why bother with those giant phones that are so big and heavy that you drive them around in your car? Wouldn’t it be a lot cheaper just to find a phone both. Several examples of this.
That said, not all ideas make it to mainstream. There were designs for cars powered by a tiny nuclear reactor. that obviously didn’t pan out. I don’t know which way the auto driving car will go.
The dot com bust wasn’t because the internet itself died. it’s because there were simply too many companies for the same thing. And to answer your questions, Pets.com is being accomplished by Amazon. Anything Dr. Koop would say is covered by Webmd.
Whatever happened, the money went poof.
When the Segway came out, I heard someone say that it was like someone invented a new metal, and then made a spoon out of it. What was most impressive about the Segway was the self-balancing mechanism, not the fact that it was made into a scooter.
I’ve been known to say that the most expensive words of the English language are “It’s different this time”. It rarely is.
While I’m skeptical of the pace of adoption of autonomous vehicles, I suspect they will come. The best argument I heard for this is that the cost to get from point A to point B would fall by upwards of 90% with TaaS (Transport as a Service).
And when a new technology provides that kind of economic difference in cost, it has always been adopted.
However, cars are different than most tech…they can be a luxury good that people buy to “signal” success, or feel successful. They are not just transport. If they were just transport, luxury car brands wouldn’t exist. Options would never be purchased at the dealer, etc.
There is plenty of evidence to show that people see their cars as far more than “point A to point B” transport.
However, if you told 100 people that they could cut their auto related expenses by 90%, I suspect, a significant enough number of them would adopt TaaS in order to make it a real business–they would “signal” success in other ways.
But the overall transition will take DECADES–30 years? 50 years? Longer? This is going to be a generational shift.
A not so small assumption is that they can get the technology to work…of course. There is that little detail.
However, cars are different than most tech…they can be a luxury good that people buy to “signal” success, or feel successful. They are not just transport.
True. But I think that signaling depends on an assumption that all those lesser folks wish they had one too. I think the generational move away from that assumption has already begun. The kids mostly don’t care what you’re driving. They have an app for that.
I’m skeptical about a 90% drop - based on what? Do drivers really cost that much?
Think about some potential added costs for TaaS, like liability insurance, and various ways of “hacking” it, such as:
– how easily will it be to hijack them
– possibilities of remote hacking, e.g. to cause redirecting (of course, that will never happen because security is so great…)
– lack of care for something you don’t own
– unintended uses (e.g. TaaS Uber services as mobile bordellos)
– people figuring out their quirks and using this to their advantage
I think the generational move away from that assumption has already begun.
It has begun, but it has mainly begun in urban centers–akin to the views on cars in NYC (who needs one?). It will take a long, long time to take root in suburbia.
‘views on cars in NYC (who needs one?)’
“But on May 3, our relationship with cabs will change. The base fare is going up to $2.50 from $2. Every tick of the meter (one-fifth of a mile) will cost 40 cents, up a dime. A trip to JFK from Manhattan will run $45, an increase of $10.”
Taxi fare increases - New York City taxi cabs - NYMag
nymag.com/nymetro/urban/features/taxi/n_20286/
There are tons of people with cars in NYC
based on what? Do drivers really cost that much?
The comparison I saw was TaaS as compared to owning your own car. If you compare it to using a driven car, it would be cheaper, but perhaps not 90%…the main cost of Uber/Lyft is the driver.
No insurance
Fewer accidents (thus less medical cost)
Simpler electric cars require less maintenance (fewer moving parts) and have greater longevity
No parking costs
etc.
It’s not hard to see the savings add up quickly.
I downloaded a long analysis, but haven’t read it all.
Public trans is 75% taxpayer funded
The dc metro is more like 80%
There’s a lot of potentially wishful thinking.
No insurance? For who? Somebody has to have it, unless self driving vehicles are perfect - and I think payouts will be higher for self driving accidents.
Fewer accidents? Maybe, maybe not - again, think about the potential for hacking and software bugs, both of which stubbornly stick around.
Cheaper maintenance? Maybe, but we’ll still have to see, for example, how the batteries fair.
Parking costs - maybe an issue in urban areas, but unless the vehicles are constantly on the move, they still have to sit somewhere.
Parking costs - maybe an issue in urban areas, but unless the vehicles are constantly on the move, they still have to sit somewhere.
This is a good point. Presumably many of these vehicles would be used during rush hour periods in the morning and afternoon and then sit around somewhere much of the rest of the day. If they’re electric cars, they need time to charge their batteries.
Our freeways are 68% subsidized. According to the Tax Foundation, highway user taxes and fees made up just 32 percent of state and local expenses on roads. The rest is financed out of general revenues, including federal aid.
Parking costs - maybe an issue in urban areas, but unless the vehicles are constantly on the move, they still have to sit somewhere.
The study I saw noted that the total number of cars necessary to get everyone to work is a small fraction of those utilized today to get people to work.
Let’s say the model they used was hopelessly aggressive (and it seemed so). For every car that can drive 2 people to work, you reduce the number of parking spaces needed by 1.
With long commutes, the car won’t get 2 people to work…(unless carpooling becomes a thing).
However, in more urban settings, getting 2 or 3 people to work in separate trips is very doable.
My car is parked for 8+ hours a day for my 10 minute commute. Don’t you think a vehicle could do something more useful in those 8 hours rather than simply occupy space?
Go into Google Earth and look at an office building and the parking field midday. Look at the roads around the building at the same time of day. It’s not as though all cars drive at one part of the day, and are then parked the rest of the day.
There are always cars on the road and cars parked. TaaS would simply make auto use more efficient (fewer cars parked, more moving).
Regarding autonomous cars:
Toyota’s [Autonomous Car Lead] Gill Pratt on Self-Driving Cars and the Reality of Full Autonomy
By Evan Ackerman
IEEE Spectrum Magazine
Posted 23 Jan 2017
http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/toyota-gill-pratt-on-the-reality-of-full-autonomy
Some takeaways:
1) No One Is Close to Achieving True Level 5 Autonomy
2) We Actually Need a Revolution in Computer Hardware Design
http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/toyota-gill-pratt-on-the-reality-of-full-autonomy
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A timeline of when self-driving cars will be on the road, according to the people making them
By Sarah Kessler
Quartz
March 29, 2017
https://qz.com/943899/a-timeline-of-when-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road-according-to-the-people-making-them/
Thanks Neuro…those are great articles.
‘Altman agrees. “I’m fairly confident that at some point in the future, as technology continues to eliminate traditional jobs and massive new wealth gets created, we’re going to see some version of [UBI] at a national scale
I’ve heard that they have this at the state level in Alaska. The state government just sends checks to every resident. Maybe it ended with the fall in the oil price.
The article mentions that. I lived and worked in Alaska one summer. First, the check was a pittance compared to what it cost to live up there. Second, they mostly piss it away on alcohol or some other drug.
Let’s not forget the real example from Alaska. Tribes who have huge cuts of oil revenue and hand out $75,000 to $150,000 to each member every year. Lets examine the substance abuse of these groups. Some of the highest in the world. Overdoses, crime, sleeping in the weeds all summer, generally getting up to no good, hardly some utopia. Come on Musk, take a trip to Anchorage in your flying car and watch how this free money actually works. I’d bet you’d be headed home in 12 hours.
Interesting. My guess is that there is an “ideal” level of UBI that still keeps you motivated to work. Some percentage less than what you could make working at whatever you are most productive at.
Blue Apron Holdings, Inc. (APRN)
NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price.
5.28-0.96 (-15.38%)
PE Ratio (TTM) -3.32
EPS (TTM) -1.59
52 Week Range 5.03 - 13.29
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APRN?p=APRN
The best things in life are free
But you can give then to the birds and bees
I need money (that’s what I want)
That’s what I want (that’s what I want)
That’s what I want (that’s what I want)
That’s what I want (that’s what I want)
Your love give me such a thrill
But your love don’t pay my bills
I need money (that’s what I want)
That’s what I want (that’s what I want)
That’s what I want (that’s what I want)
That’s what I want (that’s what I want)
http://www.metrolyrics.com/money-thats-what-i-want-lyrics-barrett-strong.html
“I didn’t have to start a company to find out that you can sell a dollar for 90 cents, or 50 cents.” -Kyle Ransford, Chef’d CEO.’
This is basically what a lot of start up companies are doing. Selling a dollar for 50 cents.
It’s interesting that Chef’d is raising money from Campbell Soup. I remember reading something about their attempts to expand into some lower income countries around the world. One challenge that they faced in places like Poland and Argentina was that people made their own soup at home. If their marketing people were able to convince housewives in such far-flung places to buy soup in a can, they may be able to convince Americans that they should spend more money on food so that they can spend even less time on meal preparation than they do currently.
It’s interesting that people are also talking about senior citizens today. Occasionally I hear stories about people who retire, find themselves with a lot of time on their hands and end up getting drunk a lot. I’ve heard that that’s the reason that musicians going back to Billie Holiday often end drinking a lot and using illegal drugs. It fills up free time in their schedules. It would be interesting to find out if it’s a problem for rich kids who get trust funds from wealthy grandparents at the age of 18 or 21.
That has been true for me. Been partying since my layoff and still work PT.
The days are long.
Think “discount coupons.” Free money for “controlled consumption.” You manufacture the TSLA and then subsidize purchases with ….coupons.
What could go wrong ? “Here kitty,kitty…”–ALIEN
P.S.
Define “free.”
Until recently, entitlements (soc sec + medicare), Defense, and interest on the national debt took up 85% of the federal budget. Now it’s 86% and climbing.
Within the next 20-30 years, these items will rise to consume 100% of the federal budget. Where would they get the money for a universal basic income?
Brilliant Point. I never even thought about it from taht angle.
Are these dudes planning to hand out free money from their personal stashes?
If so, count me in as a recipient.
Anyone is a “titan” in this fake industry. Kinda like every porn worker is a star.
You were right about the gov money, Ben.
The Binghamton story is utter insanity.
More from the article: “Paulus Development will purchase the building, at 6 Emma St., from the county for $350,000, and spend an estimated $20 million to rehabilitate the historic landmark… The company plans to finance the project through state and federal tax credits awarded to historic rehabilitation projects. It also has an application pending with the Southern Tier Regional Economic Development Council for $4 million.”
$20 million for 97 units is $206K/unit. They would have to charge $1750/month for 10 years before they saw a penny of profit. I guess that’s “market rate.” Can they find 96 fools in a rust-belt town like Binghamton? I doubt it. Not while there are a TON of sub-$100K Oil City houses within a 5-minute drive of almost anywhere.
IMO this is just a scam to funnel those tax breaks into the developer’s pockets. Oh well, at least they are employing people.
County ,cities are spending the 3?4% re gains like it’s going out of style
Done in the name of affordable housing.
Chevy Chase, MD Housing Prices CRATER 8% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/chevy-chase-md/market-trends/
“Everybody has got to die, but I have always believed an exception would be made in my case. Now what?”
William Saroyan
Annuities paying 5.4% and county,state pensions are assuming 7%
Why sorry?
Invitation Homes, a single-family rental firm owned by Blackstone Group, has agreed to acquire Starwood Waypoint Homes in an all-stock transaction that would create a portfolio of 82,000 homes in 17 metro areas. The combined company will be called Invitation Homes and will be led by Starwood CEO Fred Tuomi.
Cool trick in 2010 and 2011,not so cool now
Hilo, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/hilo-hi/market-trends/
“In his first public comment on the recent decision by the Kremlin to seize two US compounds and kick out 755 US diplomats in retaliation for a similar move by Obama in December, Trump said “I want to thank” Russian President Vladimir Putin for ousting hundreds of US embassy employees “because we’re trying to cut down our payroll.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-10/trump-thanks-putin-kicking-out-755-diplomats-well-save-lot-money
Oh, GAWD, that is priceless.
I like this cartoonist Ramirez.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/08/20170810_shock.jpg
Did ‘fire and fury’ scorch your stock portfolio today?
Trump Doubles Down on Threats Against North Korea as Nuclear Tensions Escalate
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Trump: ‘North Korea Better Get Their Act Together’
Video President Trump said Thursday that his previous “fire and fury” statement directed at North Korea was perhaps “not tough enough.”
Al Drago for The New York Times
By PETER BAKER
August 10, 2017
BRIDGEWATER, N.J. — President Trump escalated his war of words with North Korea on Thursday by declaring that his provocative threat to rain down “fire and fury” might not have been harsh enough, as nuclear tensions between the two nations continued to crackle.
Rejecting critics at home and abroad who condemned his earlier warning as reckless saber-rattling, Mr. Trump said North Korea and its volatile leader, Kim Jong-un, have pushed the United States and the rest of the world for too long.
“Frankly, the people who were questioning that statement, was it too tough? Maybe it wasn’t tough enough,” he told reporters at his golf club in Bedminster, N.J. “They’ve been doing this to our country for a long time, for many years, and it’s about time that somebody stuck up for the people of this country and for the people of other countries. So if anything, maybe that statement wasn’t tough enough.”
..
So many portfolio risks, so many complacent investors buying stocks at prices that are the highest on record relative to earnings…
Not to worry, folks…no bubble here.
Commentary
Stock market
Top Economist: Get Ready for a Stock Market Drop
Mark Zandi
12:23 PM ET
If you are a stock investor, buckle in.
Investors have enjoyed an amazing run. Stock prices are up by nearly a third over the past 18 months and seem to be hitting new record highs daily. And the run-up has been almost a straight line, with stock price volatility—the ups and downs in prices—the lowest it has ever been.
But if you are an investor, soak all of this in, because it will soon be nothing but a memory. The stock market is due for a significant correction—defined as a greater than 10% decline in stock prices—and stock returns in the next several years will be very pedestrian if they increase at all.
It’s not that the stock market is a bubble ready to burst. Bubbles are created by speculation, when investors buy a stock simply because its price has risen strongly in the recent past, and therefore conclude it will rise strongly in the foreseeable future. This clearly characterized the tech bubble that inflated around Y2K. Investors piled into the stocks of dot-com companies, many without even understanding what the Internet was. Most of the companies weren’t making any money, and few had business models that seemed likely to ever generate profits. That bubble was also fueled by margin debt, as investors borrowed aggressively against their stock holdings to purchase even more stocks.
…
So why am I pessimistic? The stock market is overvalued. That is, stock prices are much too high despite the good outlook for corporate earnings. The only other time in the past half century that stock prices have been so highly priced was during the tech bubble. Yes, they’re even more overpriced now than prior to the 1987 market crash.
…
Every long-suppressed stock market worry is suddenly coming to the fore. Is it too late for you to take your money off the table?
Opinion: North Korea may not be the main cause of this stock market slump
By Michael Brush
Published: Aug 11, 2017 5:20 a.m. ET
6 reasons why this selloff is just getting started
Did Thursday’s little jolt of volatility wake you up after months of unusual market calm? Better get used to it.
You might be tempted to think that the conflict between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was the main cause of the selling. If so, you probably have faith that as soon as this calms down we can get back to the races. Given that Trump has lots of supporters who are invested in stocks, there’s extra motivation for him to behave in a way that calms the markets. Right?
…
I’m sure those living in Seoul or Tokyo are nervous these days.
Or Guam…or Pyongyang for that matter…
Not to forget California…
Asia Pacific
Korea Tests a Ballistic Missile That Experts Say Could Hit California
Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, in April.
Korean Central News Agency.
By DAVID E. SANGER, CHOE SANG-HUN and WILLIAM J. BROAD
July 28, 2017
North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile on Friday that, for the first time, appeared capable of reaching the West Coast of the United States, according to experts — a milestone that American presidents have long declared the United States could not tolerate.
…
I bet Guam would be tough to hit for N.Korea since they’re new to the long distance club. Missiles are tough things to launch and get above the ozone into the upper half of the stratosphere as EVERYTHING has to function properly, which is no easy task.
“The gorgeous 321 Ocean penthouse in Miami Beach has returned to the market with a new price tag of one dollar under $35 million. It initially listed for $53 million in December 2015, six months after its owners purchased the five-bedroom unit for $20 million. In January, it received an extensive chop, getting reduced to $39.5 million.”
I’m curious whether there is some reason that doesn’t meet the eye for why they should expect to sell for a dime more than the $20 million purchase price they paid way back in 2015?
Even $20 million seems completely insane for a single five bedroom unit in a market facing down a luxury housing glut.