August 21, 2017

The Scale Is Beginning To Tip

A report from the East Valley Tribune in Arizona. “Demand for rental apartment housing is on the rise in the East Valley and the rest of the metro region, buoyed by an increased desire for high-end apartments. Even older high-end apartment complexes are attracting investors because of the growing market interest. Despite the boom in class A apartments throughout the Valley, the industry is likely not at risk for a bust.”

“‘I do not think that there is the risk of a bubble in the apartment market,’ Mark Stapp, Fred E. Taylor professor of real estate at W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, said via email. ‘If anything, this is going to continue to be a tight market both for home sales and for rentals.’”

“‘The larger point about Maricopa County that is important to know and understand is that there are not many new (affordable) units at all,’ said Erika Poethig, Urban Institute fellow and director of urban policy initiatives. ‘They are either being upgraded to higher-end units or being demolished and replaced by high-end product.’”

“Quite simply, there is more money in producing luxury apartments. There is plenty of available capital for developers seeking to meet that demand brought by the boomers and young professionals with high incomes who are increasingly flocking to rentals. The same is not true for affordable housing. ‘It does not pencil out to build rental housing for lower-income Americans, because the developers cannot get the lower-cost capital (to build) housing at the rents that people (with low incomes) can afford,’ Poethig said.”

From the Boston Real Estate Times in Massachusetts. “Average Boston apartment rents declined in July for the first time this year, according to Axiometrics. ‘Job growth is exceptional for the market at 2.8% in June, so the demand for apartments is there,’ said Jay Denton, vice president of analytics for Axiometrics. ‘Occupancy is high at around 96%, but the amount of new supply coming to the market this year (7,545 units) increases competition for renters.’”

The Waco Tribune in Texas. “Baylor University leaders set a lofty goal 15 years ago of housing half the school’s students on campus by 2012. Though the benchmark hasn’t been met, school officials still see value in keeping students close. Jeff Doyle, dean for student learning and engagement, said Baylor officials don’t see unaffiliated off-campus apartment complexes as competition, partly because university housing offers a ‘different product’ with fewer amenities. ‘The (off-campus complexes) are competing mainly with each other,’ he said. ‘In my opinion, they slightly overbuilt. I don’t want them to fail, but they’ve built way more beds than Baylor has grown.’”

From Bisnow on Texas. “Austin does not rank among the markets with the biggest multifamily rent percentage increases, according to Abodo. Abodo’s Sam Radbil, an Austin native and Austin condo owner, does not have to run the numbers to see the Austin multifamily market changing. He lives through the trends not necessarily reflected in Abodo numbers. He sees the scale in the rental market beginning to tip from a landlord’s market to a renter’s market.”

“When Radbil first bought his condo on Congress in 2010, it commanded $1K a month in rent. Since then, Austin became the nation’s crane capital, and rent steadily rose to $1,500 a month. Now Radbil, who currently lives in Chicago, is finding it hard to get that $1,500, given the new projects that have come online. ‘Supply and demand is evening out,’ Radbil said. ‘Five years ago, a landlord could have asked $1,600 and the renter would take it. They had no choice. All the leverage was with the landlord,’ Radbil said. ‘There’s not so much of that anymore.’”

From The Inlander in Washington. “In the tussle between the landlord and tenant, a low vacancy rate hands extraordinary power to the landlord. One Zillow sale listing this spring even referred to a ‘fixer upper’ West Central duplex rental with long-term tenants as a ‘cash cow,’ advertising that ‘repair and maintenance can be deferred’ because of the ‘extremely low vacancy’ rate.”

“The good news? The fact that it’s so much easier to make money on rental units right now is driving developers to finally build a lot more of them. More than 1,900 apartment units were built in Spokane County in 2015 and 2016, according to a tally from Valbridge Property Advisors. That number is only growing. As of this April, more than 2,100 new units are permitted and under construction — and nearly 2,200 more have been proposed.”

“That’s what’s supposed to happen: There’s a high demand for a product, that product gets expensive, and so investors climb over themselves to offer more of it. Eventually, that drives down prices.”

From Fox 5 Vegas in Nevada. “Hundreds of University of Nevada, Las Vegas students found out over the summer that the apartment complex they were supposed to live at this upcoming fall semester wasn’t even finished being built yet. Student Nick Hull said he was excited to live at The Degree apartment complex on UNLV’s campus but started to get worried earlier this year that the project wasn’t going well. ‘I lived on campus last year in the dorms. I was always going past the building,’ he said. ‘You could see it wasn’t going up.’”

“So far, The Degree doesn’t look anything close to the renderings posted online of the what the finished product is supposed to look like. Students said they couldn’t wait to hang out in the luxurious pool and live so close to their classes. Some of them said they left positive ‘five star’ reviews online because of a promotion. Others said they were required to leave fake reviews.”

“‘I used to work there,’ Maya Dendy wrote on Facebook. ‘We had to write reviews to get ppl excited about it… the layout was nice tho.’ ‘I worked at another asset campus housing place and we swapped reviews,’ Christian Kelly wrote. ‘So it was a fake review,’ he said. ‘Isn’t that kind of shady?’”

“At least five people told FOX5 that their positive review was fake. Many others, who still work for Asset Campus Housing, refused to respond. ‘The Degree of excitement I get from The Degree is unreal,’ Jacob Kiker wrote in his review, despite listing on Facebook that he works as a leasing agent at a different property owned by Asset Campus Housing.”




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71 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-08-21 08:46:18

‘Even older high-end apartment complexes are attracting investors because of the growing market interest’

OK, a few years late but carry on:

‘there are not many new (affordable) units at all,’ said Erika Poethig, Urban Institute fellow and director of urban policy initiatives. ‘They are either being upgraded to higher-end units or being demolished and replaced by high-end product’

Here’s the clincher:

‘Quite simply, there is more money in producing luxury apartments. There is plenty of available capital for developers seeking to meet that demand brought by the boomers and young professionals with high incomes who are increasingly flocking to rentals. The same is not true for affordable housing.’

Why not just leave the older affordable units alone? Ah, there’s plenty of available capital! So they just make up the “demand brought by the boomers and young professionals with high incomes” and the money flows!

Comment by SW
2017-08-21 09:17:32

How does this even make sense?

‘It does not pencil out to build rental housing for lower-income Americans, because the developers cannot get the lower-cost capital (to build) housing at the rents that people (with low incomes) can afford,’ Poethig said.”

If they’re talking about capital it’s never been cheaper. If they’re talking about the price of land, labor and materials it makes more sense. Those are expensive right now.

Comment by palmetto
2017-08-21 10:10:33

Again, it’s interesting to browse Craigslist and see how many of these so-called “upscale” apartment complexes seem to be going begging for tenants. OTOH, maybe they just advertise all the time to fill their wait list. Reading the reviews is interesting, too. Not exactly what I’d call peace in the valley.

Comment by SFMF
2017-08-21 11:13:42

“maybe they just advertise all the time to fill their wait list.”

Bingo.

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Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2017-08-21 13:36:21

Craigslist is a great site for laughing at ridiculous asking prices, no matter what the good or service.

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Comment by sfraz
2017-08-21 20:46:37

Local grocery stores have the cardboard pull-off “call” for free month rent on new luxury apartments in Redmond WA, along side of music lessons, and tutoring info. by the restrooms. About 4 more units going up within 2-3 blocks. More more more! http://www.liveatthecarter.com/

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-08-21 10:16:10

You might want to shop prices before procuing materials or are you spending someone else’s money? Materials today are less than they were in 2000. Non-prevailing labor 5% higher.

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2017-08-21 14:10:15

We hit record pricing for doug fir in the Northwest.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-08-21 14:33:01

There are a multitude of softwood equals and substitutes.

Remember….what goes up always comes crashing down. It’s the way the world works.

 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2017-08-22 00:13:48

You are right SW, the comment makes no sense at all…if anything, the low cost of capital has allowed more apartments (of all kinds) to be developed.

Land/labor/materials are the problems right now…not cost of capital.

 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-08-22 03:09:28

“Quite simply, there is more money in producing luxury apartments. There is plenty of available capital for developers seeking to meet that demand brought by the boomers and young professionals with high incomes who are increasingly flocking to rentals.”

Yellen bux seeking a toe-tag home…

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-08-21 08:51:35

‘One Zillow sale listing this spring even referred to a ‘fixer upper’ West Central duplex rental with long-term tenants as a ‘cash cow,’ advertising that ‘repair and maintenance can be deferred’ because of the ‘extremely low vacancy’ rate’

I’m sure the seller has taken advantage of this and deferred maintenance himself. Marketing genius!

And the article notes the tax code effect:

‘Sample says several clients of hers have sold their properties in Seattle, and invested in multifamily properties in Spokane.’

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-08-21 12:55:05

‘cash cow,’Debt Donkey.. It’s how depreciation works for home debtors. $3/sq ft per year depreciation adds up in a hurry. Year after year after money losing year.

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2017-08-21 08:58:04

Hi here is someone I know very intelligent law professor PC not, dont agree with everything she says but its well thought out…

https://www.facebook.com/profcarolmswain/

 
Comment by 2banana
2017-08-21 08:58:19

Fake reviews…

Fake legacy media…

Fake progressive crises (don’t let them go to waste)…

Maybe the young folks are being to understand.

+++

Others said they were required to leave fake reviews.

“‘I used to work there,’ Maya Dendy wrote on Facebook. ‘We had to write reviews to get ppl excited about it… the layout was nice tho.’ ‘I worked at another asset campus housing place and we swapped reviews,’ Christian Kelly wrote. ‘So it was a fake review,’ he said. ‘Isn’t that kind of shady?’”

Comment by junior_kai
2017-08-21 15:29:48

Reminds me of when I used to get calls from my alma mater hitting me up for donations. Mind you, this school has a billion+ dollar endowment and was paying some student struggling to scrape up the ever increasing tuition X dollars an hour to beg the likes of me for money. On one call I talked with a woman - pretty sharp, neurosciences major - who kept going lower as I refused to donate - to the point of asking me for $5 - FIVE BUCKS! I asked if she didnt see something was a little off about a school with a billion bucks paying her to ask me for $5. Suffice to say, I think I broke her programming and I’ve never gotten another call from my school again.

Signed,
Alumnus
University of Shady, College of Fake where I studied under many professors who taught us well in the art of lies, deception and propaganda

 
 
Comment by aqius
2017-08-21 09:00:09

“one Zillow sale listing this spring even referred to a ‘fixer upper’ West Central duplex rental with long-term tenants as a ‘cash cow,’ advertising that ‘repair and maintenance can be deferred’ because of the ‘extremely low vacancy’ rate.”

and here I went & paid greasy Armando “I used to live in my parents garage” Montelongo big bucks at multiple seminars to network and connect with like-minded beer bellies hoping to leer at his hoochie wife while I coulda just read some online blog for free at the library computers and borrowed my way to an instant slumlord cash cow!

 
Comment by Apartment 401
Comment by 2banana
2017-08-21 11:05:04

LOL

*********

San Jose hatched a plan to provide so-called tiny homes for thousands of homeless people. Then residents complained. Now the program is being significantly scaled back. [The Mercury News]

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-08-21 13:58:26

The harder it is to pay the ante to stay in the game the more interest there is in making sure everyone else paid it too. I’m really surprised any tech workers are getting away with parking RVs on streets.

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2017-08-21 14:15:59

They’re making it legal to live in an RV on the streets of Seattle, but it’s illegal to live in an RV on your own land. In other words, they’ll kick you off your land if you’re “occupying” an RV, but you can live in it on the dangerous streets and that’s ok. This country is so out of control and fucked up now that I don’t think it can recover.

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Comment by drumminj
2017-08-21 21:11:59

This country is so out of control and fucked up now that I don’t think it can recover.

Don’t confuse Seattle/other crazy liberal enclaves with the entire country (and btw I live/work in Seattle — I agree this city is likely beyond redemption)

 
 
Comment by scdave
2017-08-21 15:06:22

getting away with parking RVs on streets ??

Your allowed three days….They move every three days…

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Comment by sfraz
2017-08-21 20:54:41

for your entertainment, please check out https://www.facebook.com/pg/safeseattle.org/photos/?ref=page_internal , along with https://www.facebook.com/Welcome-to-Murraysville-1488704574758098/ I just went downtown to a public event and had to stand away from the bus stop, as there was crap on the wall of the stop. Disgusting, and out of control here.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-08-21 21:05:49

From the second link:

‘Washington State Patrol troopers found an unconscious driver with a needle in his arm on southbound Interstate 5 Friday afternoon. The vehicle had come to a stop in the fourth lane of the freeway near Northeast 50th Street about 3:20 p.m.’

‘Troopers said they were amazed that the stopped car didn’t cause a crash. The driver was a man but didn’t carry any identification, said Trooper Rick Johnson.’

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2017-08-21 14:13:56

Tiny houses are just too expensive and take up too much land. Probably better to build a number of smaller apt buildings of 20-30 micro apartments each. Large enough to have a staff to offer some on-site services, but too small to be labeled a “project” or worse.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-08-21 14:32:27

I’m guessing that the expense to build is not the root cause of the problem and that even if you could build for free that wouldn’t solve it.

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Comment by snake charmer
2017-08-21 10:06:15

“So far, The Degree doesn’t look anything close to the renderings posted online of the what the finished product is supposed to look like. Students said they couldn’t wait to hang out in the luxurious pool and live so close to their classes. Some of them said they left positive ‘five star’ reviews online because of a promotion. Others said they were required to leave fake reviews.”
____________________________/

The design is uninspiring, like photos I’ve seen of apartments in Cold War Eastern Europe. And they’re student apartments, so no matter how nice the place ends up being, it will depreciate in a hurry.

At least the fake reviews have been taken down.

http://livethedegree.com/

 
Comment by 2banana
2017-08-21 10:06:56

Housing recovery suffers, but don’t blame the millennials
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/21/housing-recovery-suffers-but-dont-blame-the-millennials.html | 8-21-17 | D. Olick

As the competition from young millennials heats up at the entry level, the logjam at the top of the market only heats that competition and pushes prices ever higher and out of reach.

So, why don’t boomers move? Some if it is because their empty nests have filled back up again with children moving back home after college, but in large part it is a result of the recession and the increasingly high cost of housing. It is simply cheaper for them to stay put, and so they do.

Baby boomers currently own about 3.6 million unoccupied rooms, according to Trulia, a real estate website that looked at the 100 largest housing markets to find boomers living in homes with at least two bedrooms more than the number of occupants.

Laraine Camera Goldberg is one of them. She and her husband bought a five-bedroom house in North Potomac, Maryland, nearly 40 years ago and raised their sons there. The neighborhood was and still is perfect for raising a family, with quiet streets and good schools. Now Goldberg’s sons are grown and gone, and she and her husband are divorced. She lives alone in the 3,000-square-foot home that boasts a huge yard and pool. She could sell the home easily, as there is very high demand in her price range, but there is one problem.

“I don’t know where to go from here because everything is so expensive. I’m stuck,” Goldberg said. “It’s actually less expensive to stay here and metro into the city than move into the city. So I’m stuck, but I’m in a neighborhood by myself that really I don’t belong in.”

Laraine Camera Goldberg lives alone in this five-bedroom home in North Potomac, Maryland and wants to sell it, but can’t find a feasible next option because of cost.

Laraine Camera Goldberg lives alone in this five-bedroom home in North Potomac, Maryland and wants to sell it, but can’t find a feasible next option because of cost.

Like so many other active baby boomers, Goldberg wants to downsize to a home closer to the heart of a metropolitan area. Prices in downtown Washington, D.C., are hitting new record highs, and even in the close-in suburbs both rents and prices are cost-prohibitive.

Comment by scdave
2017-08-21 15:14:07

She and her husband bought a five-bedroom house in North Potomac, Maryland, nearly 40 years ago and raised their sons there.Like so many other active baby boomers, Goldberg wants to downsize to a home closer to the heart of a metropolitan area ??

I know many people in this situation but they are stuck…Their basis in their property is so low that the tax hit on a sale is enormous even with the 500k exemption…There saying the hell with it, I am not paying 300-400K in taxes….I will just let it be my toe tag house and the kids can inherit it with a stepped up basis tax free…At least thats the way it is under current tax law…

Comment by Sean
2017-08-21 16:13:11

‘Stuck’ in a house in Potomac. Poor baby.

I swear these Boomers will just complain about anything and everything. You could give them a free Ferrari and they’d complain about the color.

Comment by Lesser Fool
2017-08-21 16:53:30

If I’m going to be paying for insurance on a Ferrari you better believe it needs to be the color I want. Plus I’d have to pay income taxes on it; probably the sales tax too! For that money I could probably buy a brand new Toyota free and clear with far less recurring expenses.

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Comment by Sean
2017-08-21 18:22:40

You missed the point. She’d still complain if someone gave her something. She’s like Mr. Pink who gets a free breakfast and complains about coughing up a buck for the tip.

 
 
 
Comment by MacBeth
2017-08-21 16:38:06

As I said here last week, there are many millions of boomers out there with lots of money.

A good many of them will pay exorbitant prices for fancy retirement facilities.

Think about this “poor woman!” faced with the daunting challenge of living in a 5-bedroom home all by herself(!) because she cannot find a place cheap enough in the city.

That’s b.s. Her problem isn’t a lack of money. Her problem is that she cannot believe how much she’ll have to pay for a smaller, “lesser” abode.

It’s remarkable, really. She and others of her age group have rode a phenomenal demographic train ride their entire lives. She’s made money hand over fist, in large part because she was born at the right time. Now SHE has to cough up the bucks toward the end of her life to get what she wants. Poor, poor baby!

My advice for her? Shut up. If she cannot manage that, take in borders. Or sell the place, and move into something smaller and crappier for a loss.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-08-21 16:42:08

And as I responded to that fallacy last week, they’re all dead.broke.debtdonkeys.

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Comment by Lesser Fool
2017-08-21 16:55:59

take in borders

It’s only a 5-bedroom; it’s not THAT big.

Still, considering what they could truly expect to sell at a profit (maybe just the top 100 best-sellers); 1-2 bedrooms might just be enough.

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Comment by Neuromance
2017-08-21 18:11:51

Another fact is that all other house prices have gone up in lockstep with theirs. So there’s no windfall profit for these folks, despite their houses having appreciated so dramatically. Old people don’t want to move to Oil City. They want to be closer to infrastructure.

The net result of the housing bubble for end users like Ms. Goldberg was a higher tax bill, and lack of mobility. The only group it made wealthy was the FIRE sector, first from the run up, then when they were facing being bag holders, wealth was redistributed from the society to the FIRE sector by the government and central bank.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-08-21 23:19:21

Another fact is that all other house prices have gone up in lockstep with theirs. So there’s no windfall profit for these folks, despite their houses having appreciated so dramatically.

Yes and no.

It may be true that a 5BD house in a good school district moved up at the same rate as a 2 or 3 BD house in a retirement community, but the 5BD house started at a much higher price.

So, the $300k 5BD house quadruples in value over 40 years…$1.2MM.

The $175k 2 or 3BD house also quadruples…$700k.

So, you can bank $500k by trading down–even though homes prices have moved up at the same rate.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-08-22 02:35:31

Houses don’t quadruple in 40 years nor were houses 300k or 175k 40 years ago.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2017-08-22 04:55:51

If that hypothetical rate increase were true, then sure, that particular scenario’s math works. Apparently the scenario is not working for Ms. Goldberg though, who despite being in one of the wealthiest zip codes in the nation, was unable to “trade down and cash out”. Basically executing the Oil City scenario in the local area.

Quite amazing that the scenario didn’t play out for Potomac, of all places. I’d think if you had a house in Potomac, your house value would be at the top of the price pyramid in the entire region and trading down like you indicate, with a healthy profit, would be a given. Excellent schools - some of the best in the nation - very close to DC. I’d never thought about it before because I wouldn’t ever even bother looking at Potomac real estate because of the rarefied prices.

Interesting thing though - it seems to me that the prices in geographic areas tend to rush towards price points, they don’t increase on a rate-based march. So the prices in DC and Potomac didn’t increase at a consistent rate, they rush towards price points.

And that price point around which houses cluster has to do with GSE conforming and jumbo loan limits.

I’m not just merely speculating on that - I have read that scenario on housing bull sites, supported by at least one study/investigation. I have it bookmarked on one of my computers, but not the one I’m posting from apparently.

I recall reading about a bubble symptom being “loss of neighborhood differentiation.” Meaning again, prices race towards the same clustering point, irrespective of whether it’s in an undesirable neighborhood with historically lower prices, or in a desirable neighborhood with historically higher prices. That a big Potomac house can no longer be traded down and cashed out for a DC condo or townhouse is quite remarkable.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by SFMF
2017-08-21 11:02:09

OK I’ll be THAT guy….it’s the Inlander, not the Islander in Washington.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-08-21 12:37:41

Thanks for letting me know.

 
 
Comment by aqius
2017-08-21 11:15:14

maybe it’s just me but it seems that Laraine Camera Goldberg is kinda . . . lonely . . in that big ol’ equity mansion!?

grown sons: gone
husband: gone

does she at least have a pinochle or canasta group? cats?
usually this kind of person heads down Palmy’s way for an “active” retirement community.

hey Palmster, reach out & touch Laraine w/a AirBnB room.
little extra ca$hola never hurts. might be interesting company.

and who knows, maybe she aged well like sophia loren. raquel welch. christie brinkley. yowza!

Comment by palmetto
2017-08-21 11:23:10

“hey Palmster, reach out & touch Laraine w/a AirBnB room.”

Thanks fer nuttin’. I am officially grossed out.

Comment by aqius
2017-08-21 12:12:32

c’mon now. you could start your own poly-amorous harem. do your part to ease the housing shortage. heck, she might even have a sweet retirement/alimony/pension from the ex !?

AND, she only needs 10 years of marriage to claim SS benefits.

farm out a couple o’ rooms to cougars in the sunshine state. get the purple pill on 90-day mail order for cost savings.

damn. this is good stuff. I should have my OWN seminars.

Comment by palmetto
2017-08-21 14:35:48

And it would be standing room only in the retirement communities all over Florida, especially the biggest gross-out one of all, The Villages.

Seriously, the courtin’ game for the oldsters gets surreal sometimes. The gals are looking for a widower with some money, and the guys are looking for a nurse with a purse.

You can’t make this stuff up:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2017/06/28/drug-raid-villages-retirement-community-nets-evidence-golf-cart-chop-shop/435205001/

And of course, the definitive article on The Villages:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/likethebreadorthedressing/seven-days-and-nights-in-the-worlds-largest-rowdiest-retirem?utm_term=.knnmmkmA6#.pvGDDrDol

Really would not want to live there. Wouldn’t mind going to an estate sale or two, though. Bet it would be interesting.

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Comment by palmetto
2017-08-21 18:33:40

“Top Institutions and Economists Now Say Globalization Increases Inequality”

Wait, WHAT????????????

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/top-institutions-and-economists-now-say-globalization-increases-inequality

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-08-21 18:57:05

‘The Bank of International Settlements – the “Central Banks’ Central Bank” – also notes that globalization isn’t all peaches and cream. The Financial Times explains : A trio of recent papers by top officials from the Bank for International Settlements goes further, however, arguing that financial globalisation itself makes booms and busts far more frequent and destabilising than they otherwise would be.’

‘The Economist points out: Most economists have been blindsided by the backlash [against globalization]. A few saw it coming. It is worth studying their reasoning ….’

‘Supporters of economic integration underestimated the risks … that big slices of society would feel left behind …. The New York Times reported: Were the experts wrong about the benefits of trade for the American economy? Voters’ anger and frustration, driven in part by relentless globalization and technological change [has made Trump and Sanders popular, and] is already having a big impact on America’s future, shaking a once-solid consensus that freer trade is, necessarily, a good thing.’

“The economic populism of the presidential campaign has forced the recognition that expanded trade is a double-edged sword,” wrote Jared Bernstein, former economic adviser to Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’

‘What seems most striking is that the angry working class — dismissed so often as myopic, unable to understand the economic trade-offs presented by trade — appears to have understood what the experts are only belatedly finding to be true: The benefits from trade to the American economy may not always justify its costs.’

Comment by palmetto
2017-08-21 19:31:42

Bit of a shocker, all that. Wonder what’s going on? These people seemed hell bent on shoving globalism down our throats and up our patooties.

Now, it’s like, hmm, haww, maybe we were a tad hasty here, time for a re-think. Come on now, plebes, pinky-shake?

Things might be starting to hit a bit closer to home for the ‘leets than was previously thought possible.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-08-21 19:41:02

August 11, 2016
The Ultimate Long Game: Autarky and Resilience

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2016/08/the-ultimate-long-game-autarky-and.html

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Comment by palmetto
2017-08-21 20:19:22

Good stuff there, I had read it before and of course, forgotten it, so thanks for reminding me.

Seems to me at one time the US was on the path to autarky and got thrown off into globalism.

 
 
 
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-08-22 03:18:21

Now that we have expropriated our entire industrial base to China, economists are warning on globalization?

Go figure…

 
 
 
Comment by Apartment 401
2017-08-21 18:37:10

Realtors are liars.

 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-08-21 18:39:59

Silverton, OR Housing Prices CRATER 15% YOY

http://www.movoto.com/silverton-or/market-trends/

 
Comment by palmetto
2017-08-21 18:51:42

Hey, Deezy, are ya out there?

If so, do ya think there’s any truth to the rumor from deep in the bowels of the internet that Podesta is in the custody of US Marshals? This is from one of Webb’s commenters, mind you, not Webb himself.

If so, would that be protective custody or criminal custody?

I was thinking about how the Dems have the Podestas and the Republicans have Manafort, and it brought to mind how Webb said the Dems quietly shut down the Russia investigation. That guy who resigned abruptly from the Mueller team just happened to do so right after all the brouhaha about Manafort and then things went silent. I wonder if someone woke up to find a severed horse head next to him in bed.

Deep thoughts, by palmetto.

Comment by junior_kai
2017-08-21 19:51:57

I’m going to throw in my $.02 and say no, but I havent been following Webb much at all. If a big rat like Podesta was being taken down the media/dnc would pull out whatever skeletons they could to take it off the front pages - including skeletons they had as they set up some sacrificial lambs. No honor among thieves and all that. We might even see some fire bombing and the like from SEIU thugs just as a distraction. That would be my guess anyway.

Comment by palmetto
2017-08-21 20:49:11

“If a big rat like Podesta was being taken down the media/dnc would pull out whatever skeletons they could to take it off the front pages”

Well, for one thing, we learned during the election how much pull Podesta’s organization has with the media, through the Wikileaks email dump. So I think there’s little worry of anything hitting the front pages until the 11th hour.

As to the rest, it’s interesting that Webb has pointed out that what the dems do is accuse others, in this case Trump and Co., of that which they are doing and in a most vociferous fashion. Hence this over the top desperation in their various efforts to dislodge him. It certainly explains Adam Schiff’s completely unhinged performance on the whole Russia thing. Webb says Schiff’s been “hotboxed”, by which he means compromised, so Schiff is desperate.

The latest gambit, it would seem, is the legislation filed by Zoe Lofgren to have Trump declared mentally ill. Now that is truly a desperate Hail Mary pass type move for sure. That, combined with the hit piece that Webb seems to think is going to be published on himself, is an awful lot of flak, which means someone is over the target for sure.

One thing to watch out for, according to Webb, is the white dems throwing the black dems under the bus, which would fit with your theory on sacrificial lambs. And with Webb’s theory on the dems accusing others of what they themselves do, in this case racism.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-08-21 20:29:31

Jerry Lewis Passes Away at 91, Variety Jumps to Call Him Racist and Homophobic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfUetdc0WmU

Comment by palmetto
2017-08-21 20:59:08

good lord. I am not now nor have I ever been a fan of Jerry Lewis, but, I mean, really.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-08-21 21:10:10

I always thought he was funny, probably my age and when I was exposed to him and Dean Martin.

These are my favorite Jerry Lewis scenes:

‘Buddy Love Makes His Debut! [Scene from The Nutty Professor 1963] ‘

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtshlipvyIc

‘Jerry Lewis (as Buddy Love) - That Old Black Magic’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ2dJnVqd6g

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-08-21 21:33:34

Don Rickles Roasts Jerry Lewis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_mO0BXikDs

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-08-21 22:05:28

Rowan Atkinson The Conservative Conference 1982

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXxyDZRUTDQ

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-08-21 22:07:58

Rowan Atkinson on Free Speech vs. The New Intolerance

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubFIlcPSbeE

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2017-08-22 01:03:40

A couple thoughts:

1. Why does a couple that is worth $1+ billion need a mortgage for $53 million?

2. Funny how progressives/liberals like walls to protect their own property

3. Any bets how much they lose when they resell in a few years (after “major” improvements)

4. Wonder what are the property taxes. The monthly alligator must be around $500,000 per month (P/I, taxes, insurance, upkeep, servants, etc.).

5. Wonder if they talked with Johnny Deep and Nick Cage…

+++++++++

Jay-Z and Beyoncé land a $52.8-million mortgage for Bel-Air mansion
Los Angeles Times - August 21st, 2017

Jay-Z and Beyoncé may be worth more than a billion dollars combined, but the couple ultimately used conventional financing in order to purchase their first Los Angeles-area home.

The rapper/hip-hop magnate and his superstar wife, through blind trusts, paid $88 million for the sprawling contemporary estate, public records now show. Also revealed in the records is that the couple is carrying a mortgage amount of $52.8 million.

Plug that into any mortgage rate calculator (we happened to used Google’s search-based calculator) and that amounts to 30 years of monthly payments at $252,075 based on an interest rate of 4%.

Developed by Dean McKillen, the son of Irish billionaire and property investor Paddy McKillen, the residence sits behind gates on about two acres and comprises six structures. Amenities include spa and wellness facilities, a media room and separate staff quarter. There’s also a full-sized basketball court.

McKillen bought the property through a corporate entity four years ago for $15 million, records show. The developed property was completed this year.

Jay-Z, whose legal name is Shawn Carter, is considered among the greatest performers in hip-hop, with nearly two dozen Grammy Awards to his name.

Comment by rms
2017-08-22 06:38:10

“Jay-Z and Beyoncé may be worth more than a billion dollars combined, but the couple ultimately used conventional financing in order to purchase their first Los Angeles-area home.”

As long as rates are cheap why not?

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-08-22 05:10:09

‘The country has become more polarized, and many viewers simply tune in to the cable channels that cater to their viewpoints and political beliefs. How can broadcasters bring viewers back? Their best option may be sticking to their original reporting and hoping viewers grow tired of Trump, said Heyward, the former CBS News president.’

“Cable has placed a bet that people want to hear about controversies around Trump all day long,” he said. “The evening news is in a different game and they abandon that at their peril.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-22/broadcast-news-misses-ratings-bonanza-with-too-little-trump

‘people want to hear about controversies around Trump all day long’

Now do you really want to spend the next 3 and half years doing that? I sure as heck don’t and won’t.

BTW, I’m hitting the road for 4 days for work, will post when I can.

Comment by 2banana
2017-08-22 05:14:32

Democrats and their legacy fake news media are going to get crushed again in 2018.

And they STILL won’t be able to figure out why they keep losing.

 
Comment by Carl Morris
2017-08-22 10:08:31

How can broadcasters bring viewers back?

Trust. Good luck getting it back.

 
 
Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-08-22 05:48:26

“Goodwill is ‘overrun’ with stuff millennials and Gen Xers refuse to take from their parents, who pay up to $5,000 to get rid of it”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goodwill-overrun-stuff-millennials-gen-151400853.html

With 10,000 boomers a day headed for the grave, leaving 35 million excess empty houses, full of this junk, I’d say there’s a surplus of everything and collapsing demand.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2017-08-22 06:11:46

Chinese billionaire backs out of $600M deal for a ten acre site in London near the Thames.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/22/investing/china-wanda-london-nine-elms-real-estate-deal/index.html

One of China’s richest men has abandoned plans to buy $600 million worth of prime London real estate as his aggressive overseas deal-making comes under scrutiny by Beijing.
Billionaire property tycoon Wang Jianlin’s Dalian Wanda Group said Tuesday it would not complete the purchase of Nine Elms Square, a 10-acre site in south London near the River Thames.
Wanda declined to say why it walked away, but it’s not the company’s first foreign deal to fall through this year.

60 million an acre. I wonder how much those flats would have to cost to pencil out? Maybe all those unsold 40 million pound flats in The Shard helped him change his mind on the deal.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-08-22 10:26:26

I assume it has more to do with China restricting outflows for real estate purchases than with anything penciling out.

 
 
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