Eventually, There Are No Takers
A report from Forbes. “New high-rise residential construction has been among the hottest areas for real estate investors, particularly those from abroad, with high-end products accounting for 8o% of all new construction. Yet this is not an entirely high-end country, and these products, particularly the luxury high-rises in cities, largely depend on a small segment of the population that can afford such digs. No surprise, then, that we see reports of declining prices in areas as attractive as New York, Miami and San Francisco, where a weakening tech market is beginning to erode prices, much as occurred in the 2000 tech bust, John Burns Real Estate Consulting notes. There have been big jumps in the number of expired and withdrawn condo listings, particularly at the high end; last year, San Francisco saw a 128% spike in the number of withdrawn or expired listings for condos over $1.5 million.”
“Almost without exception, the most expensive areas are precisely those that have the most high-rise buildings: New York, San Francisco, Seattle and Miami. More to the point, these buildings don’t tend to be occupied by middle-class, much less working-class, families. And in many cases, these units are not people’s actual homes; in New York, as many as 60% of new luxury units are not primary residences, leaving many unoccupied at any given time.”
“Already, harder times for some traditional investors – Russians and Brazilians, for example – have hurt the Miami market, long attractive to overseas buyers. There is now three years’ worth of inventory of luxury high-rises there, with areas such as Edgewater, Midtown and the A&E District suffering an incredibly high inventory of seven and a half years.”
“In Downtown Los Angeles, according to local brokers, many of the new high-rise towers are marketed primarily in China. (LA claims to had the second-highest number of cranes, behind only Seattle.) These expensive units are far out of reach for the younger people who tend to inhabit the neighborhood, instead serving as what one executive called ‘vertical safe deposit boxes’ for people trying to get their money out of China. If the new crackdown on such investments is strongly enforced, this could leave a lot of expensive units without buyers. Prices have already softened, and with several new luxury buildings coming up, Downtown is likely to experience a glut.”
“Even in Manhattan, another market long dependent on foreign investment, projects are now stalled, including some once-hot properties in Midtown that are delaying their sales launches.”
From Mansion Global on New York. “An oversaturation of inventory was to blame for the drop in Manhattan’s luxury sales prices, according StreetEasy Senior Economist Grant Long. ‘[It’s] the only place where it’s relatively nice to be a buyer this summer,’ he told Mansion Global in an email. ‘Buyers looking for homes at a higher price point will likely continue to experience downward price pressure and more negotiating power in the coming months, as supply continues to outpace demand.’ Beyond the luxury market, Manhattan’s sales have stagnated, the report found, except at the bottom.”
The Union Tribune in California. “New home construction in San Diego County has picked up slightly but is still substantially down from the same time last year. The only place in Southern California with a similar reduction in building is Orange County, which has seen a 26.7 percent drop in permits in the first six months. San Diego County’s slowdown is mainly the result of a drop in multifamily permits (apartments and condos), which is likely because of an anticipated slow down in rent appreciation, said Gary London, real estate consultant.”
“‘We’re entering a less aggressive phase in terms of increasing rental rates,’ he said. ‘We’re reaching an apex. The cost of construction continues to go up and we can’t squeeze more rental revenue out of the market right now.’”
“There are other factors the building industry points to as reasons for a slowdown, such as lack of buildable land, community opposition to new projects, government barriers to new entitlements for residential building and a slowing market for luxury rentals and homes. ‘We’re running out of folks that can pull the mortgage on the high-end stuff,’ said Borre Winckel, CEO of the local Building Industry Association.”
From Greenwich Time in Connecticut. “Greenwich home sales declined slightly in July, according to Scott Durkin, Douglas Elliman’s chief operating officer. Luxury real estate broker Kevin Sneddon points to the difference between the average list price versus average sale price over the last year. Between August 2016 and 2017, the average list price was nearly $3 million while homes sold on average for around $1.8 million, he said. ‘That’s very powerful,’ he said. ‘There’s a lot of overpriced inventory in Greenwich and weakening in appreciation for old-world estates.’”
“Though it’s been a decade since the high-water mark of home prices, ‘Sellers are still pointing to pre-crash prices,’ Sneddon said. ‘My point is that we’re not going back there anytime soon.’”
“The Greenwich housing market will likely follow a similar trajectory to the Hamptons, Sneddon predicted. ‘There was a lot of product built in the 1970s and ‘80s and no one wanted those anymore,’ he said. ‘So prices cascaded down to where they got to land value and now everyone is buying them and knocking them down to put up new construction.’”
“Already, Greenwich homes are frequently bought by developers, and the trend will continue to grow, he said. ‘Eventually, there are no takers and the price will cascade down until they’re at tear-down price.’”
“Greenwich continues to be a buyers’ market, according to Sneddon, and it will probably take years to turn around given the amount of inventory on the market. ‘It takes a while to turn a big ship around,” Sneddon said.”
‘last year, San Francisco saw a 128% spike in the number of withdrawn or expired listings for condos over $1.5 million’
Funny how the Mercury News missed that.
‘There are other factors the building industry points to as reasons for a slowdown, such as lack of buildable land, community opposition to new projects, government barriers to new entitlements for residential building and a slowing market for luxury rentals and homes…’
Blah, blah, blah.
Bingo:
‘We’re running out of folks that can pull the mortgage on the high-end stuff’
“In Downtown Los Angeles (…) Prices have already softened, and with several new luxury buildings coming up, Downtown is likely to experience a glut.”
I see this happening all over LA county, with the higher-end rental listings as much as for-sale listings. Rental inventory over 3k/mo sits for weeks, even months, often after one or more price decreases. Same seems to happen for $1M+ SFH, and ESPECIALLY attached condo/townhome, listings. My family and several friends of ours who also have incomes that can “qualify” for those rental/sale prices, based on the 5X income rule (which is ridiculous BTW…), are just renting where we want to live in LA because it is so much cheaper even despite the region’s rising rents . Also helps that renting doesn’t have the headache of maintaining the decrepit crap passing off as “luxury” for-sale inventory these days.
‘We’re running out of folks that can pull the mortgage on the high-end stuff’
Per my comment above, it’s not that we’re running of of these folks, it’s just that many of us are skilled at reading numbers objectively, and so we’re much less prone to getting caught up in the market mania as others.
San Francisco homes sells for $1,000,000…….
Over asking!
http://blog.sfgate.com/ontheblock/2017/08/31/noe-valley-victorian-sells-for-nearly-1-million-over-the-asking-price/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook#photo-801232
San Francisco house sells for $1,000,000……..
Over asking.
Now Valley……you’ll have to Google it…..can’t seem to get the link posted!
Noe Valley…….auto correct off….coffee on.
‘So prices cascaded down to where they got to land value’
You’re saying, uh, the shacks are worthless?
A wise man once said….. ‘Worthless housing…. worthless worthless housing. Housing is worth less and less with each passing day.’
It’s more to the point to just say that houses are rapidly depreciating assets that never pay you back.
Worthless? Well, if your Corolla is going 30 mph and a Beemer passes you at 60 mph, then you could say that the Corolla is standing still while the Beemer is going 30. So the shack is worthless in that sense. But all usable shacks have some worth as human habitation.
And the cars and houses end up back in the ground right where they came from.
Worthless? Yup.
Give it up, Housing Analyst.
Just for you my good friend. From me to you.
Warrenton, OR Housing Prices CRATER 13% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/warrenton-or/home-values/
HA……dumber than a 5th grader….
Let the data be your guide my friend.
Lincolnia, VA Housing Prices CRATER 8% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/lincolnia-va/home-values/
I have two rental properties in phoenix. The prices are going up about 15% a year. I make 25k a year in rent.
Everything is possible on the internet until it’s time to substantiate. Meanwhile…..
Bedford, MA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/bedford-ma/home-values/
“I make 25k a year in rent.”
Net?
“You’re saying, uh, the shacks are worthless?”
Sort of…..but you have to believe the land is worth $1,000,000
Morris Township, NJ Housing Prices CRATER 6% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/morris-township-nj/home-values/
‘There is now three years’ worth of inventory of luxury high-rises there, with areas such as Edgewater, Midtown and the A&E District suffering an incredibly high inventory of seven and a half years’
If you look at $3 million and up, it’s 20 years.
That is a long term and expensive alligator to feed…
I am watching the San Diego marina condo market in 92101. …
June inventory = 225
August inventory = 245
Up 8% in 2 months……. curious.
‘It’s no secret that former President Barack Obama and his family love Martha’s Vineyard…And rumors are now flying that they’re looking to purchase property in the area. In particular, the Globe suggests the former president might be eyeing two oceanfront properties in Aquinnah.’
‘While comps in this price range are tough to come by, a 106-acre lot at 3 Red Gate Farm Road sold in 2012 and is currently valued at $12,685,000. So, given that these lots for sale are in the same price range (or higher) but offer far less land, you’ve gotta wonder: Are they overpriced? Possibly, considering the length of time they’ve been lingering unsold.’
“Both pieces of land have been on the market for 83 days,” points out Cifuni. This could spell an opportunity for the Obamas, should they decide to make an offer. “Personally, I would deduct 10% from asking,” says Cifuni.’
But. Warming. Rising oceans.
The beachfront parcels recommended are priced at $12mil and $15mil. Good thing public service is the fastest route to vast wealth:
“The Obamas, who earned less than $300,000 every year from 2000 to 2004, made an average of $2.4 million annually over the next four years.”
“In January 2005, the same month he joined the Senate, [Obama] got approval from its ethics committee for a $1.9 million advance against royalties with Random House for two non-fiction books and one children’s book.”
“Then came the big money. [During his presidency], the Obamas made $10.8 million.”
“Obama will soon have the opportunity to make millions more. Bill and Hillary Clinton, who left the White House in debt, earned more than $240 million over the next 15 years.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2017/01/20/how-barack-obama-has-made-20-million-since-arriving-in-washington/
Overpriced or no, just a few 45-minute speeches for hedge fund guys and Goldman Sachs ought to be enough to amass the down payment.
And he and his peeps likely cant swim - or swim well!
I guess he can call Branson to pull up in his yacht and save him.
Explain your comment regarding swimming, please.
do we have to? daily violence shooting assaults at public swimming pools , but almost zero at a public beaches….from the same people
Do you think the ‘rising sea levels’ thing is a ruse to scare owners of land near the shore into selling for dirt cheap prices?
It turns out that it’s much ado about nothing.
Obama spokesman denies rumors the former president is buying a $27 million estate from Caroline Kennedy
Rumors that the Obamas are looking to Martha’s Vineyard for a new vacation home aren’t true, a family spokesman said.
http://www.businessinsider.com/obamas-looking-at-homes-in-marthas-vineyard-2017-8/#the-two-parcels-are-idyllic-with-plenty-of-untouched-land-1
Obama buying 2nd house?
=peaker
And they’re so far apart. Golly that’s gonna use up a lot of fuel bouncing between Hawaii and MV. Maybe he’s going to hitch a ride with Leo while he’s flying around the world helping the environment?
He must have REALLY invested and saved his $400,000 presidential salary wisely to buy a couple of multi-million dollar homes…
Not a smidgen of corruption.
Funny that he does not want to buy a house and move back to Chicago…
Forbes has written extensively about Obama’s income, based on his tax returns. Beyond his salary as president, he’s earned several million dollars in publishing deals and royalties. That’s it. Move along.
How about Michelle’s $300K plus annual salary as an administrator at a Chicago hospital? Despite having no background in the field whatsoever.
Yeah, we know. Move along.
Don’t forget all the secret service that needs to follow him around forever.
Yeah, what a jerk. No other president has ever had that protection after leaving office.
You are missing my point.
I was responding to the carbon footprint commentary, which is amplified if you have a contingent of security that follows you around everywhere you go.
This is compared to, say, a retired president who doesn’t have homes spread 6,000 miles apart.
obama made $400K for 8 years and can now drop $15 million on a lot?
Not a smidgen of corruption.
+++++
Obamas looking to buy a $15 million vacant lot on Martha’s Vineyard
canadafreepress.com | 8/31/2017 | Robert Laurie
Enter former President Barack Obama: a man who wants to “spread the wealth around” and who once famously said “at a certain point you’ve made enough money.”
…According to Realtor.com, he’s looking to purchase one of two vacant lots on his favorite vacation Island, Martha’s Vineyard. Of course, he doesn’t want to live inland like some commoner, so both properties are ocean front. They’re also not cheap. The man who wonders when ‘enough is enough’ is looking at plots that start at $12 million and, remember, that’s without a house.
Given that the shacks become worthless, why not just buy land?
“obama made $400K for 8 years and can now drop $15 million on a lot?”
Oops, you beat me to the punch, sorry! Will scroll down before posting next time
Who cares. I wish I could filter your anti-Obama comments from this blog. Obama made lots of money writing books. Get over it. Where does this anti-Obama zealotry come from? He’s not the president anymore. Move on.
Focusing on Obama helps deflect attention from the Donald’s Russia problem.
I agree. The Obama hate is just ridiculously placed on a blog that’s focused on the state of the housing market. Can’t you stick to YouTube, Market Watch, of Yahoo comments with that crap.
The state of the housing market is a political decision, and the echo bubble is the product of political decisions, or non-decisions, made during Obama’s two terms. He and his appointees deserve strong criticism. And they can take it.
I’m not happy with any former politicians, or public servants in general, reaping millions from speeches and book deals. Who buys these books, anyway? Does anybody own Bernanke’s memoir? Geithner’s? Dick Cheney’s book, allegedly, was a “#1 New York Times Bestseller.”
Readers buy books, and presidents don’t set monetary policy. You’re thinking of Congress and the Federal Reserve.
Well, thanks for clearing that one up for me. I should have known that the decisions not to break up too-big-too-fail banks and to suspend the rule of law for Wall Street, and the appointments of Geithner, Summers, Yellen, Holder and Mel Watt, were made by the Fed and our Congressional leadership. I just needed a reader like you to set me straight.
It appears that persons or entities other than readers are buying some titles. I’m shocked.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffbercovici/2013/02/22/heres-how-you-buy-your-way-onto-the-new-york-times-bestsellers-list/#4bc34cbc3a7b
Are the democrats in control going to lower taxes, decrease spending and tell the public unions to go on a diet?
Nope. It is going to be a lot longer than a few years to “turn” this around…
+++++
“Greenwich continues to be a buyers’ market, according to Sneddon, and it will probably take years to turn around given the amount of inventory on the market. ‘It takes a while to turn a big ship around,” Sneddon said.”
So I have to laugh twice.
Once at this marxist indoctrination camp thinking that it is a place of higher learning.
And the fool investors who bought property near the school as an investment.
+++++
Evergreen State Faces $2.1 MILLION Budget Crisis After Radical Students Go Berserk
dailycaller.com | 8/31/2017 | Eric Owens
The Evergreen State College is facing a $2.1 million budget shortfall and a five percent plunge in enrollment in the wake of this spring’s continuous stream of high-profile protests led largely by radical black students.
Student registration for the fall quarter at Evergreen State has decreased from 3,922 students to 3,713 students. Critically, most of the missing students are nonresidents who would pay substantially higher out-of-state tuition — $24,138 per year versus just $6,678 for Washington residents.
Additional layoffs “will become impossible to avoid” “if the capital budget crisis at the state level continues indefinitely,” the memo states.
“In a college where 89 percent of the operating budget is in salaries and benefits, it is impossible to reduce the budget by substantial amounts without giving up positions. In anticipation of this, we will soon be announcing a hiring freeze,” the memo also says, according to The College Fix.
Students should not be alarmed about funding for diversity initiatives, though. “Our work in equity and inclusion is an important step in this process,” the memo assures.
Surely the college will keep all gender,race studies and sociology !
List of majors at this progressive liberal … oh wait, they say they “don’t have majors.” They just have “areas of emphasis.” And by the way, they offer Bachelor of Science degrees with minimum science requirements. Wow, I hope these snowflakes have positions waiting in Daddy’s business.
ANTHROPOLOGY
BIOLOGY AND LIFE SCIENCES
BIOLOGY
BOTANY
HEALTH
PHYSIOLOGY
ZOOLOGY
BUSINESS, MANAGEMENT, AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP
BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT
LEADERSHIP STUDIES
CHEMISTRY
BIOCHEMISTRY
COMMUNICATION
COMMUNITY STUDIES
COMPUTER SCIENCE
CULTURAL STUDIES
AFRICAN AMERICAN STUDIES
GENDER AND WOMEN’S STUDIES
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
MARITIME STUDIES
QUEER STUDIES
ECONOMICS
EDUCATION
OUTDOOR LEADERSHIP AND EDUCATION
ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
AGRICULTURE
ECOLOGY
FIELD STUDIES
GEOLOGY
HYDROLOGY
MARINE SCIENCE
NATURAL HISTORY
GEOGRAPHY
HISTORY
AMERICAN STUDIES
CLASSICS
LANGUAGE STUDIES
LINGUISTICS
LITERATURE
MATHEMATICS
NATIVE AMERICAN AND INDIGENOUS STUDIES
PERFORMING ARTS
DANCE
MUSIC
THEATER
PHILOSOPHY
AESTHETICS
PHILOSOPHY OF SCIENCE
RELIGIOUS STUDIES
PHYSICS
ASTRONOMY
POLITICAL ECONOMY & POLITICAL SCIENCE
GOVERNMENT
LAW AND GOVERNMENT POLICY
LAW AND PUBLIC POLICY
POLITICAL ECONOMY
POLITICAL SCIENCE
PSYCHOLOGY
CONSCIOUSNESS STUDIES
SOCIOLOGY
SOMATIC STUDIES
STUDY ABROAD
SUSTAINABILITY STUDIES
VISUAL AND MEDIA ARTS
ARCHITECTURE
ART HISTORY
MEDIA ARTS
MEDIA STUDIES
MOVING IMAGE
VISUAL ARTS
WRITING
Hmmm, they seem to be missing CRAFT BREW STUDIES and POUROVER STUDIES. I guess I wasn’t far off when I said college was just an expensive finishing school.
STUDY ABROAD
I dunno, I can’t decide between CONSCIOUSNESS STUDIES and QUEER STUDIES.
Just ran across this yesterday, 2011 video by former professor, higher ed expert:
What Colleges and Graduate Schools Don’t Want You to Know
Trade school, fine. We have been reading up on this lately, but much of the info is aimed at males. If you have a daughter who doesn’t want to scrape tartar off teeth or be an x-ray technician, what? (Yes, I am asking you fine, bright people for suggestions, the non-college careers your daughters chose…)
If you talk to people who are completely illiterate, many will tell you that reading is overrated.
MM - not helpful, but I suppose you think it’s more important to impress people with how clever you are than to be helpful. OT, anyway, forget it. I’ll continue to look.
Do you have any kids you’re worried about? If not, lucky you.
There are female welders. Not all trade school options are only suitable to brawny guys.
“STUDY A BROAD”
I have fond memories of that part of college.
I’d push trade schools for young women as well. Plumbing, electrical, auto mechanic. I’m amazed at how few people are actually willing and able to fix small plumbing, electrical and auto issues on their own. Means job security. Additionally, women can benefit from “diversity” and “minority” business grants in these areas.
I made the assumption that the YouTube thing was just another anti-college rant. The guy does actually make a few good points. College is not for everyone. It’s not a good idea for kids who didn’t do well in high school. American sends far too many of its young people to college and that’s true at every level up to PhD. He could have also added the statistic that about 30% of the workforce has a college degree, but only around 20% of job require one.
Though his point about professors getting hired for their research accomplishments probably doesn’t apply to most colleges. Also, if he has any kids, they probably went to college themselves.
I suppose that a parent with a kid with who doesn’t know what she wants to do could practice some tough love. Most people probably don’t have fun at their jobs. That’s why it’s called work. Some sort of medical or dental training can at least prepare a person to earn a decent income.
My daughter is a hairstylist. She sets her own hours and makes a good living at it.
A number of points that need to be considered when thinking about ideas like “free college for all”, and trade schools, and student loan issues.
1. Income benefits from college are mainly about “signaling”, and NOT what you actually learn. Studies that look at incomes after people have stopped going to college before getting a degree show that there is very little benefit from each year of education, until you get your degree. In other words, employers don’t care about what you’ve learned, they care about whether you’ve completed the program.
2. Students who borrow money for college are generally able to pay it back…IF THEY FINISH. Those who drop out part way through are generally screwed. So, perhaps we should take care not to push marginally qualified students into taking on student loans to get a college education?
3. Some (so far relatively limited) studies DO show that increasing availability of student loans drives the cost of college higher. But, increasing availability of student loans does not explain all of the increase.
4. There is a higher correlation between where a student is ACCEPTED to college and their income levels than where they actually went to college and their income levels. In other words, if you were accepted to Harvey Mudd (high earning graduates), but went to University of Indiana to stay close to home to care for an ailing parent, your future prospects more closely align with others who were accepted to Harvey Mudd than those who were not. This strongly implies that how successful people are is less about where they go to school, and more about who they are.
So, is it a good use of public money to provide free college for all? Is it a good use of money to allow marginally qualified students to finish one or two years of a liberal arts education? Or is their time better spent in a trade school?
So, is it a good use of public money to provide free college for all?
No, because only one out of five jobs requires a degree.
Yes, it’s complicated.
I think a lot of people would benefit from working for a couple years before going to college (or trade school?), because it provides some valuable experience and maturity. (Back in my college days, the GI bill students always impressed me. Trust fund babies, NOT.)
And college can definitely be worth it - IF you go to learn, get a worthwhile degree, and go to a place that emphasizes undergraduate education (NOT research or pseudo-research, with most teaching done by TA’s)
As far as not graduating goes, yes, from what I’ve heard that number of students who drop out is scandalous - and how long it can take to graduate. Many colleges don’t make it easy, because they don’t provide enough of the required courses. So some of the fault is with the college, not just the student - and maybe part is students going who aren’t ready or motivated.
Totally agree about the person being most important. The Berkeley Mech Engs I’ve meet were great, but they could’ve gone to UC Irvine, and still would have turned out great.
There are some specialized low-physical jobs that can be done with a two year degree. Paralegal, med-tech, medical office secretary, hospitality jobs, chef/caterer. The biggest problem is that your daughter would be competing with bachelor’s graduates for those jobs.
My suggestion is to go to a two-year school and learn basic electronics and auto/bus mechanics. A friend of a friend went to Volvo mechanic school and now makes six figures at the dealership service department. The days of guys tinkering with their daily driver are fast coming to an end.
So some of the fault is with the college, not just the student - and maybe part is students going who aren’t ready or motivated.
Some of the issue is that some students lack the support network at home. I’ve heard (more than once) that the new badge of honor for universities is not how many minority students they accept, but how many students are “first from their family to attend college”.
While it’s great for mobility, etc., my guess is that those students are most at risk of dropping out with debt. And that isn’t good.
There are some specialized low-physical jobs that can be done with a two year degree. Paralegal, med-tech, medical office secretary, hospitality jobs, chef/caterer. The biggest problem is that your daughter would be competing with bachelor’s graduates for those jobs.
You do not need any sort of degree for any of those jobs. Please don’t let your kids go to college for two years to be a “chef”. Good luck paying back those student loans while competing for restaurant jobs with the illegals.
Want to be a secretary? Know basic English, learn to type quickly, have more than two brain cells to rub together. Try a temp agency to get some work experience and prove you’re capable of doing the job.
My daughter is a hairstylist. She sets her own hours and makes a good living at it.
Thanks, Norma.
NG for my daughter. Sensory issues, some symptoms of Asperger’s (not as amusing as it’s portrayed on tv.) National Merit, genius IQ, scholarship offers, looks very young for her age, bullied in school, horrible anxiety problems, extremely focused and hard worker if she can get through the interview.
Tough love? I’m familiar with it. I was an owner/mgr of a restaurant for 20+ years. My job was making people do what they didn’t want to do and throwing out people who weren’t doing what I wanted them to do.
There’s got to be something out there for her. She is considering becoming a pharmacist, but I’m concerned she wouldn’t be able to handle the pressure (of school) so I’m investigating alternatives. As I said, I’ll keep looking.
It’s just unfortunate that most info is male oriented. I’m sorry I brought it up. Even worse, I can’t get that GD “What a Feeling” song out of my head.
There’s got to be something out there for her.
Normally people like her are attracted to tech and do well once they get their first job. Is that something she has no interest in? I have soft spot for Aspie/high anxiety people and like to see how they blossom once they find their niche.
Tarara,
Do seriously consider anything having to do with programming. Like every job there are interpersonal and communication aspects to the work, but the heart of the job is you and a problem and a machine, and most of your collaborators are likely to be exactly the sort of people who are more comfortable with computer interfaces than with human ones. There is plenty of sexism in the field but there are also many places that make a point of hiring women for technical positions. It is absolutely a field in which you can get an education for free (forget about coding boot camps etc.; there are endless free resources online, many excellent books to learn from too), and a job without a degree.
The only thing that’s really important is to like it and be serious about it. If she were to get a year under her belt learning a couple of programming languages and participating in some kind of online project, say, that could provide an objective measure of her activity, she ought to be able to get her foot in the door somewhere. I know half a dozen stories of people hired for technical positions who couldn’t stop shaking in the interview … it just doesn’t matter if you’ve got the skills and the desire for the job.
Is that something she would like? Has she ever tried programming? There are plenty of folks here who could probably give suggestions about how to dip a toe in the water, if you think it’s a possibility.
That is very nice (and patient) of you, Carl. Most people are not that generous. When when she was little and I realized something was wrong, I tried to steer her that way, but no luck. Well, she has improved tremendously over the years. Pharmacy encompasses her interests (biology, chemistry) but the problem is math. She wrecked on the shores of calculus, and it really shattered her academic confidence. She watches Khan Academy videos to prep for the day she’ll have to take it again.
Strawman, thank you for the good advice. I haven’t brought it up to her in a long time. I’ll broach the subject, but I’ve always gotten a quick “not interested”.
Lately she’s actually been getting through interviews without falling apart. I’m old but I don’t remember interviews with stupid questions like “if you could be any kind of animal, what would you be?” Spare me. I hired hundreds of people and interviewed tons of people and never asked anything like that.
She’s scrupulously honest, and argues with me about embellishing her resume. It’s exhausting. It’s funny, too - one time I caught her in small lie; I can’t tell you how happy I was.
That is very nice (and patient) of you, Carl. Most people are not that generous.
It’s not that I’m such a wonderful guy, I just have tendencies that direction myself so it’s easier for me to have empathy for spectrum-y people. This blog was my “special interest” for a few years.
I too wrecked on the shores of Calc II as an 18 year old. That’s how I ended up in the US Army as a 19 year old. Not a recommended solution but it did help me power through Calc II 3 years later.
So she’s more of a biology/chemistry person. There are plenty of jobs there for people like her too. Just a question of how to get from here to there. Sounds like she needs a mentor that has trod the same path. Do you live in an area where there are support groups for spectrum issues? Guaranteed there will be people there who work in an area she is interested in who can befriend, help, and give good advice that will actually make sense to her.
There’s a few (younger, female, more relatable for her) pharmacists in the local stores that I’ve asked if they’d mind speaking with her. They were willing, but she was not. That was a while ago. More recently, she’s applied for pharmacy tech jobs, our goal being becoming familiar with the retail type of pharmacist job, but no luck so far. Bilingual is almost a requirement.
We tried the groups. She started getting angry at me, asking “is this how you see me, what you think I’m like?” Can’t win, and she was right to be mad. There’s no group for people whose problems are just bad enough to make only certain things difficult - like getting an education or a job - that’s all (and only everything.) Socially, there’s been great improvement.
A mentor would be great. She did have a chemistry teacher in HS that really liked her, seemed to be a kindred spirit.
OK yeah…it’s a tough one when you’re just impaired enough to need to find some intentional workarounds for the issues, but can’t relate to the more impaired people who have no choice but to rely on support from others. A mentor is still a good solution but maybe you won’t find the right one at a support group. It’s a tough one.
You might mention to her “I know you don’t have the kind of problems that the people at the support group have, but the fact that you can’t bring yourself to talk to regular people who want to help might mean you shouldn’t be too choosy about where to get advice”.
Is she the type that is way more comfortable in email/text than face to face? If so, next time would somebody be willing to text her to talk about it?
Exactly. I told her well, maybe you could attend to help out those who might learn from you. She is disappointed that “normies” won’t put themselves out and overlook her quirks. Didn’t get far there. She’s a generous and kind kid, but she just couldn’t. I pointed out the irony to her.
Mostly an email/text girl, but getting more chatty and sociable all the time. She says, “I had to learn.”
She had some testing done yesterday. New therapist. Maybe 2018 will be her year.
Thank you, Carl. It’s rare to speak to someone who gets this stuff.
She is disappointed that “normies” won’t put themselves out and overlook her quirks. Didn’t get far there. She’s a generous and kind kid, but she just couldn’t. I pointed out the irony to her.
Hahah…I feel her pain, but it’s good you tried to point that out.
I wish her the best. Feel free to look me up online if you want to talk more in the future. I use my real name everywhere. There’s even an old Friends of the HBB group still on Facebook…
I will. Thank you so much
“CRAFT BREW STUDIES”
They have “beer” educations in Germany.
The beer ain’t bad, either!
And trade schools for hotel workers, too, in Germany
…“STUDY A BROAD”
I have fond memories of that part of college….
Me too.
I remember one long weekend when I had to cram for my anatomy final.
Did anyone else notice that just a couple of weeks after pouncing on Trump for saying both sides had been violent, the democrats have renounced antifa for being - violent?
That’s just the communist leadership throwing communist sympathizers under the bus. It’s what they do best.
Search Results
Antifa Disrupt Peaceful Rally in Berkeley with Violence - YouTube
Video for antifa violence video
▶ 4:35
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hnVYJjDDMMQ
3 days ago - Uploaded by Very Fake News
Very Fake News. … Antifa Disrupt Peaceful Rally in Berkeley with Violence aug 27 2017. … antifa wants …
Top stories
‘Antifa’ violence in Berkeley spurs soul-searching within leftist activist community
Los Angeles Times · 2 days ago
Nancy Pelosi says violent “antifa” activists “should be prosecuted” and don’t represent Democrats
The Denver Post · 18 hours ago
Unmasking the leftist Antifa movement - CNN - CNN.com
http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/18/us/unmasking-antifa-anti-fascists-hard-left/index.html
Aug 22, 2017 - Antifa activists told CNN their goal is peace and inclusivity. But often, their methods are violent.
The Rise of Antifa - The Atlantic
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/09/the-rise…violent…/534192/
Antifa’s violent tactics have elicited substantial support from the mainstream left. By the 2000s, as … Suddenly, Trump supporters had a viral video of their own.
Antifa Violence Is Ethical? This Author Explains Why - NBC News
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/…/antifa-violence-ethical-author-explains-why-n796106
5 days ago - Mark Bray is out with a new book “Antifa: The Anti-Fascist Handbook” that chronicles antifa’s rise. But his take on violence is drawing a sharp …
They were useful idiots. But public opinion is turning on them despite the legacy fake media best attempts.
Plus, the democrats can call Trump a racist for years no matter what he does on the Harvey recovery
It worked like a charm on Bush.
And all obama had to do was to play golf and get a hug from Christie.
It’s really amazing. Trump continues to show how easily these allegedly monolithic entities back down, and all he has to do is simply refuse to accept their premise. Meanwhile Ryan and Republicans are falling all over each other to apologize, placate, and condemn.
“Meanwhile Ryan and Republicans are falling all over each other to apologize, placate, and condemn.”
Step aboard the Trump Train or step in line at the unemployment office.
Step aboard the Trump Train ??
Ah….No Thanks…I hear that train a-comin;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5Ts4M3irWM
Stay on topic ladies.
Puako, Hawaii Housing Prices CRATER 15% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/puako-hi/home-values/
Housing my friend housing.
There’s no running away from Antifa now, it is the brand of the Democrat Party going into 2018 and 2020.
All the MSM puff pieces praising Antifa in the wake of Charlottesville have been archived. The media and the Democrat Party are the Alt-Left.
True that, lots of commercials around election time will likely prominently feature dems talking up the virtues of antifa followed by their shock troops burning flags, smashing windows and attacking people
That probably won’t happen. Though if it does, it will mean that GOP wants to avoid discussing Trump’s failures.
Comment by MightyMike
2017-08-31 09:00:31
Are you talking about the White Supremacist Navy that risked their necks to save anyone no matter the color of their skin?
Who exactly are you accusing of being white supremacists?
Hillary Staffer Triggered by Confederate Flag on Boat Saving Black Flood Victims
BY CALEB HULL
4 DAYS AGO
Former Hillary Clinton staffer, Logan Anderson, was watching the news when she suddenly became so triggered that she felt the need to go on Twitter.
On her television, was a boat rescuing African-American flood victims in Texas with a Confederate flag attached. Anderson tweets:
Logan Anderson @LoganD_Anderson
Y’ALL, THE CONFEDERATE FLAG CROWD IS HELPING BLACK PEOPLE EVACUATE IN HOUSTON AND I CANT 💀💀💀#houstonflood
12:56 PM - Aug 27, 2017 · San Francisco, CA
732 732 Replies 625 625 Retweets 1,202 1,202 likes
http://ijr.com/the-declaration/2017/08/958687-hillary-staffer-triggered-confederate-flag-boat-saving-black-flood-victims/
You can’t answer the question, can you? I wonder what the problem is. The answer appears to be nobody and you make no sense.
These right wing media outlets are having a lot of fun with the word trigger, aren’t they? I was working in the yard and it was hot, so that triggered me to drink a glass of water.
“Who exactly are you accusing of being white supremacists?”
“You can’t answer the question, can you?”
I did.
I am not accusing any of the people who helped evacuate flood victims of being white supremacists, Logan Anderson did.
You probably never heard of that person before. There’s no mention of the word white or the word supremacist in that IJR article. So what it amounts to is somebody on Twitter said something about some other people.
Musical chairs with MightyMike
“Who exactly are you accusing of being white supremacists?”
Logan Anderson
“You can’t answer the question, can you?”
I did
“You probably never heard of that person before.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVoJh55a7EU
Did anyone else notice
Yup, it was noticed. In fact it’s the headline story on TheHill website right now: http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/348777-right-accuses-left-of-hypocrisy-on-antifa
ANTIFA Apologists Admit Trump Was Right
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XmwHFUWIHN0
Every public school does this in some form, but that’s an awfully high out-of-state tuition bill. I never even knew Evergreen State existed but for recent events. One hundred thousand dollars for four years!
Unless the school is prestigious in Washington, even the in-state tuition seems steep to me. By comparison, Florida State charges Florida residents about $6,500 per year.
It is by no means a prestigious school here in WA. It’s one of the most popular snowflake schools in the state, where you can get a BA in SJW with a minor in basketweaving.
Evergreen State Faces $2.1 MILLION Budget Crisis After Radical Students Go Berserk
That’s probably around a percent or two of the annual budget. I love the way that the word million is capitalized.
For 2015, the budget was just over $191 million, so you likely are correct as to the percentage. That’s not to say a shortfall of that size wouldn’t have consequences, though.
http://www.evergreen.edu/sites/default/files/budget/docs/Budget101_2015.pdf
Add in inflation of around 2% - that is about a 4% cut.
And since most of their budget goes towards personnel costs - mostly likely layoffs (have you ever seen a progressive take a 4% salary cut to save a fellow progressive?)
However, this is probably the start of a long term trend line downward.
No parent is going to send their kids to this college if they are paying the bill. No whites or non-SJW is going to go there and be called a racist for four years. The state is sure not going to increase funding.
And even SJW will stop going there when the graduates get no jobs.
So imagine a 4% cut for at least the next eight years. It will be tough to stay in business with a 32+% cut - eventually you reach a death spiral.
It appears to be a deficit, not a comparison to previous years.
And this is a bizarre question:
have you ever seen a progressive take a 4% salary cut to save a fellow progressive?
Have you seen an angry, cranky dittohead take pay cut for the benefit of another angry, cranky dittohead ?
No parent is going to send their kids to this college if they are paying the bill. No whites or non-SJW is going to go there and be called a racist for four years. The state is sure not going to increase funding.
Shouldn’t this mean that there should be no white kids there currently?
An interesting and informative thirteen minute video of what is going on with Evergreen …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-st73zhZL3A
So all the folks and corporations who bought all those crack shacks to rent out (even thought the place didn’t have a positive cash flow position) on the assumption that massive appreciation would make them rich especially with 3% Mel Watt mortgages…
Are now cutting their rents by double digits.
How does this end again?
++++++
The Biggest US Cities where Rents Are Plunging
Wolf Richter • Aug 31, 2017 • Wolf Street
An inconvenient math for housing is beginning to dog Chicago: The third largest city in the US has been losing population for years. Not huge numbers, but it adds up… In 2016, according to the Census estimate, the population dropped by about 9,000 people. Since 2014, the population has dropped by about 14,000 people. Chicago’s fiscal woes, junk credit rating, and the threat of bankruptcy hanging over it don’t help.
According to Zumper’s National Rent Report for August, the median asking rent in Chicago dropped by 13.7% year-over-year to $1,510 for a one-bedroom apartment, and by 15.7% to $2,200 for a two-bedroom. From their peaks in late 2015, asking rents have plunged 26% and 17% respectively.
These are asking rents in multifamily apartment buildings. Single-family houses or condos for rent are not included. And they do not include incentives, such as “one month free” or “two months free,” which effectively slash the rent for the first year by another 8% or 17%.
In San Francisco, the most expensive major rental market in the US, the median asking rent for a one-bedroom apartment dropped 1.5% year-over-year to $3,390 and is down 7.6% from the peak in October 2015. For a two-bedroom, the median asking rent dropped 5.0% year-over-year to $4,560 and is down 8.8% from the peak.
In New York City, the median asking rent for a one-bedroom dropped 8.9% year-over-year to $2,850. For two-bedrooms, it dropped 8.3%. Measured from the peak in March 2016, asking rents — not including incentives — have plunged 15% and 20%.
In formerly red-hot Oakland, which received the San Francisco housing refugees, median one-bedroom and two-bedroom rents plunged 16% and 14% from their peak.
And Honolulu, with an 18% and 23% plunge from the peak, nearly rivaling Chicago.
hmmmm =the raise they gave teachers
which becomes the whole gov after it percolates
and 17% respectively
= BK soon w no bama bail
$1500 monthly rent for a 1 bedroom in Chicago is outrageous. Chicago is in flyover. $1500 is way out of line with what the locals can afford.
As oxide stated yesterday, $200-$400 off monthly rents of $1500-$3000+ is chicken feed. It’s close to nothing.
When rents are halved or more, then we can talk about a burst bubble.
Much more affordable than crime infested areas like Silicone Valley. In fact Chicago area GDP dwarfs SF.
$200 a month off a rent of $2200 monthly is chicken feed.
If you’re already blowing $2200, what difference does it make if it’s $2000?
$2000 monthly is FAR MORE than what the typical individual anywhere can afford.
Additionally, $200 off is nothing compared to the massive monthly rent increase of the past five years. Such “massive losses” doesn’t come anywhere close to constituting a burst bubble. It doesn’t even represent a return to
“normalcy”.
But I cannot expect you to understand that, Mikey. No other white liberal elitist from coastal California would, so I can’t expect you to, either.
The fact Chicago rental rates fell 26% is the take away. Do they have much further to fall? For certain. Increasing affordability, an economy that dwarfs Silicone Alley…… What’s not to like?
Two hundred bucks a month is a lot of money for most people. Trust fund babies wouldn’t understand that.
You are correct. Trust fund babies wouldn’t understand that.
Nor would they understand that $1500 monthly rent is an outrageous sum of money to pay for a 1 bedroom.
That people on this board think $1500 is “reasonable” or “cheap” tells me a great deal about people who frequently this site. Sometimes I swear at least half of the individuals here on HBB are “investors” themselves. Nothing else explains the mindset.
It reminds me of the recent post where someone thought they had a deal in paying “only” $2500 monthly to rent a house.
LOL! You gotta be kidding me. Somebody is making a bundle off of that “deal”, and it sure as hell isn’t the renter.
That people on this board think $1500 is “reasonable” or “cheap” tells me a great deal about people who frequently this site.
I’m paying that much for just a bedroom and a bathroom…but you’ll never hear me calling it reasonable or cheap. It’s just the cost of being within walking distance of the current job. The good part is that if my job changes tomorrow, I can stop paying tomorrow…no mortgage, no lease.
Millions In International Accounts Linked To Far-Left Lobbying Group
ANDERS HAGSTROM
2:05 PM 08/31/2017
The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) has reportedly transferred millions of donated dollars to offshore accounts in the Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands, and Bermuda, The Washington Free Beacon reported Thursday.
The SPLC is the far-left lobbying group that published a map of “hate groups” in the U.S. that is widely credited with instigating a shooting at the conservative Family Research Council in 2012. The organization also called for three U.S. Army bases to be torn down Thursday because they are named after rebel military leaders from the Civil War. Tax records investigated by the Free Beacon show the SPLC reportedly transferred millions to investment funds in the Cayman Islands and elsewhere in in 2014 and 2015.
http://dailycaller.com/2017/08/31/millions-in-international-accounts-linked-to-far-left-lobbying-group/
The criminality at upper levels of government, business/finance, etc. in the US is over the top. Way, way over the top. When this happens, societies, civilizations, organizations collapse. It is inevitable, although it may take a while.
And a little photo essay by William Banzai to illustrate:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-01/corporate-prosecutions-devoid-due-process
Wait, it’s no longer enough to take down a statue or change a name, now they have to tear down an entire military base?
2 banana or another expert… I have been following NYC rentals for a while as I may have to relocate from LI to NYC… wolf street news is good but why all the conflicting data - I am referring today’s post at curbed and yes, I know street easy may be biased (aka realtors lie) 😄 Thanks to anyone for some thoughtful insight!!
https://ny.curbed.com/2017/8/30/16222322/streeteasy-new-york-rent-market-report-july
There is a great comment at the street easy web site that answers your question.
In addition, the web site only uses the data of people paying to advertise there.
Wolf Street uses data from all publicly available sources.
Please keep us informed on what you find with boots on the ground.
Hah so they are not telling the whole story! Thanks for pointing out the comments section… I missed that part. I actually get streeteasy email blasts about listings and many have a little down arrow next to the asking price. Guess they chose to ignore that?
No surprise “upper Manhattan” is increasing as I believe those are the gentrifying areas like Washington Heights. Will report as I see action on the ground. Spouse works for an engineering firm as an inspector and cannot believe the places/prices of what is being built… It’s all “luxury” but really the interiors are generic crap… And many views are of a brick wall next door!
LI real estate continues to be sticky on the way down if you can call it that. Seeing some price reductions. 40 year old houses with original 70s and 80’s interiors for $500,000 plus. Crap inventory. We have a younger friend (in his twenties) who asked us if our house tripled in value (we bought in 2007) and we bust out laughing. Apparently a baby boomer coworker of his was bragging about how much his house was worth now (Zillow dreamer pricing in effect?) We set the kid straight. Suffolk county overall hasn’t had that sort of ridiculous”appreciation” and it’s all virtual money anyway right??
You should educated your younger friend on property taxes.
That 40 year old house with an original 70s interior probably has close to $15,000 in taxes.
Oh we did…Ours were $6000 when we moved in now they’re almost at 10k…😢 (over a 10 year period up 40%) And we’re one of the cheaper towns/ districts. We used to turn out for budget vote but got tired of seeing the public sector drones cancel our no votes out. “WHY DO YOU HATE CHILDREN???”
No surprise “upper Manhattan” is increasing as I believe those are the gentrifying areas like Washington Heights. Will report as I see action on the ground.
LI LI Land, I was born and raised in Inwood and familiar with Washington Heights. Been gone quite a while now so no longer have LL contacts of my own but still know lots of people who have lived there all their lives. Any questions, I could put you in touch ( t.boom at cox.net ).
Hey thanks for the offer…will probably have to be more downtown/LES but. I think upper manhattan was “cheap” for so long it’s “catching up ” in realtor speak…and displacing many long time residents who managed to live there without a Starbucks! If things change I will def email you! ✌️The community on this site is the best!
Li Li Land
Oops, mistake…t.boomdea at cox.net … I hear it’s improved but I think the only thing the old neighborhood has got going for it is you always get a seat on the subway (last stop on the A train.)
“U.S. Homeownership Rate Falls to Five-Decade Low”
https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/07/28/u-s-homeownership-rate-falls-to-five-decade-low/
This comes as no revelation considering housing demand is at 20 year lows and falling.
Realtors are liars.
An eleven minute video …
“Voices of Debt - The Student Loan Crisis: Don’t major in Debt”
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&q=voices+of+debt%3A+the+student+loan+crisis%3A+Don%27t+major+in+debt&oq=voices+of+debt%3A+the+student+loan+crisis%3A+Don%27t+major+in+debt&gs_l=psy-ab.3…1992.28165.0.28619.61.58.0.0.0.0.460.6099.34j16j0j2j1.53.0….0…1.1.64.psy-ab..8.38.4700.0..0j0i20k1j0i22i30k1j33i160k1j33i21k1.kgXJIzUIPfQ
It’s déjà vu all over again!
Financial Times
US Treasury Bonds
Rating agencies warn on failure to raise US debt limit
Signs of angst in Treasury market amid contentious debate in Washington
Congress is likely to be the scene of a contentious debate over the debt ceiling, raising the spectre of a government shutdown
© FT montage; Bloomberg; Getty Images
11 hours ago
by: Eric Platt and Robin Wigglesworth in New York
Credit rating agencies have ratcheted up their warnings over the consequences should a divided Washington fail to raise the US debt ceiling, with anxiety beginning to surface in the $14tn Treasury market.
S&P Global, the largest of the world’s three dominant rating agencies, cautioned that a failure by Congress to lift the debt ceiling would likely be “more catastrophic” than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 that brought the global financial crisis to a head.
The alarm from S&P comes ahead of what is expected to be a contentious debate in Washington about lifting the Treasury’s self-imposed borrowing authority. The Treasury department has already resorted to extraordinary measures to pay the nation’s bills, and Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin has told congressional leaders that they should act by September 29.
Analysts with rival Fitch warned last week that a failure to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner would result in a review of its triple-A rating on the US with “potentially negative implications”, signalling a cut to either its outlook or rating. Moody’s, which also rates the US triple-A, has said if a debt payment is missed it would also have “negative rating implications”.
S&P chief US economist Beth Ann Bovino said a default on US government debts would be “devastating” to markets and the economy. Her team forecasts that a default would result in a contraction in government spending and would push the US economy back into recession, “wiping out much of the progress made by the recovery”. S&P downgraded the US credit rating to double-A plus in 2011.
…
“wiping out much of the progress made by the recovery”
There was a recovery?
The amazing power of … of a banana peel …
Greek Life retreat cancelled afer banana peel found in tree.
https://www.campusreform.org/?ID=9679
I saw that story. I’m wondering what the odds are of it really being “just a banana peel”. I’m guessing about 50/50. I enjoy a good snowflake story as much as the next person but I’m suspicious in this case.
Petaluma, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/petaluma-ca/market-trends/
a short for sc n mighty
symbol MAGA
If you are a gangbanger, excremento will pay you not to kill people.
http://fox40.com/2017/08/29/sacramento-city-council-approves-advance-peace-program/
I can’t even.