There Is No ‘Typical’ In This Market Anymore
A report from Quartz. “Yale economics professor Robert Shiller won the Nobel prize for his work on bubbles. As Shiller sees it, ‘big things happen if someone invents the right story and promulgates it.’ Quartz spoke with him about some of the frothiest assets today, from bitcoin to tech stocks. Quartz: What are the best examples now of irrational exuberance or speculative bubbles? Shiller: The best example right now is bitcoin. And I think that has to do with the motivating quality of the bitcoin story. And I’ve seen it in my students at Yale. You start talking about bitcoin and they’re excited! And I think, what’s so exciting?”
“Quartz: Hasn’t the internet democratized information? Someone can promote their views widely without getting buy-in from editors or other gatekeepers? That’s what Trump has done with Twitter.”
“Shiller: One really important thing that’s happened is that reputations don’t seem to matter as much at this point in history. You’re asking about bubbles. These are the stories that drive the bubble. Trump speaks to these things, and he seems to be saying things that nobody else will say but maybe you’re thinking.”
“He also legitimizes wealth. It wasn’t that long ago that we held rich people in contempt. We have a billionaire president, and he’s kind of welcoming: You can be rich, too. The Trump story helps inflate all kinds of bubbles, not just bitcoin. I think there are aspects of a housing bubble, and a stock market bubble right now.”
From The Daily News in Washington. “Cowlitz County home prices dipped slightly in August as more homes were listed on the market, helping to ease some pressure on the tight housing supply. Yet supply still isn’t keeping pace with demand and the market is still tilted heavily in the seller’s favor. Median home prices dropped to $216,000 in August, down from $231,000 the previous month, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Services.”
“Typically the housing market cools down in the fall and winter, but realtors say the busy market could continue longer than expected this year. ‘There is no ‘typical’ in this market anymore,’ said Sheri Evald, a broker with Keller-Williams in Longview.”
The Desert Sun in California. “A Coachella Valley lender is trying to entice buyers with the promise of getting into a home with a tiny down payment — or none at all. They’re not the kind of zero-down loans lenders offered in the years leading up to the housing market’s 2008 crash. But with clever stacking of programs, they allow people to buy houses without putting down much, if any, cash.”
“Mark Stewart, sales manager for Axia Home Loans, a lender that recently opened an office in Palm Desert, explained that first-time homebuyers can qualify for FHA loans, which only require them to pay 3 percent of the home’s purchase price up front. Then, they can get a ‘non-repayable grant’ from the Golden State Finance Authority or the California Housing Finance Agency, state agencies that support residents trying to buy homes, for as much as 5 percent of the loan amount — enough to cover the remainder of the down payment and most if not all closing costs.”
“‘A lot of times (people think) you’ve got to save $10,000 before you can get into a home,’ Stewart said. He asks realtors, ‘Do you have any borrowers that just don’t have enough of a down payment to buy a house? Do you have borrowers waiting to save up for a down payment? … In this case they don’t have to.’”
“‘Yeah, there’s always risk,’ Stewart said. ‘The likelihood of you (walking) away from something you never put your money into is greater, I agree with that, but I think the people buying these homes want to buy. I don’t think there’s a problem with zero down if you’re paying attention to the borrower. I think right now, in this period of time, the zero down’s not going to hurt anybody.’”
Don’t trust them. Do your own research and estimates.
They don’t work for you.
********
Insurers ache for qualified inspectors after U.S. hurricanes
Reuters - Sept 11, 2017
Insurers are scrambling to find inspectors in Texas and Florida after fierce hurricanes battered the states one after the other, causing tens of billions of dollars’ worth of property damage in less than two weeks.
Although insurers maintain some number of inspectors, known as claims adjusters, across the U.S. year-round, they must redeploy staff from other areas or hire contract workers to fill gaps when catastrophes like Hurricanes Harvey and Irma strike. The speed with which they can do so is critical to residents and business owners awaiting insurance payments.
Texas and Florida together have more than 340,000 licensed adjusters, according to state agencies, but it was unclear precisely how many were on the ground. Insurers and industry groups said thousands were headed to affected areas from other parts of the United States.
Insurers have been put to the test before. After Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy in 2005 and 2012, it took months for many property owners to receive payouts, partly because there were too few adjusters with the needed expertise.
Novice errors like not pulling off drywall to inspect for hidden damage, or not being familiar with software used for loss estimates, can reduce or delay insurance payments, adding to hardships residents are already facing.
Many large insurers use their own adjusters, while smaller and midsize rivals are more likely to hire outside help. For-hire inspectors can charge $1,000-$2,000 per claim in the aftermath of major disasters, industry sources said.
I know someone with no real experience who was hired to be an inspector in Houston. They’re paying him something like $60/hr + expenses, even flying him out there.
Bitcoin has already failed. It was supposed to be a stable store of value, compared with government-managed currencies, but instead it has soared and plunged.
Maybe that can be fixed somehow, but it doesn’t look good.
First Commandment of Fiat:
Thou shalt have no other currencies before me.
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
金融市场
中国计划关闭比特币交易平台
据知情人士透露，中国央行牵头起草了一份指示草案，将禁止中国平台提供虚拟货币交易服务。这将给一度繁荣的虚拟货币商业交易行业带来致命一击。
…
Markets
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
China to Shut Bitcoin Exchanges
Authorities to ban commercial trading of all virtual currencies
By Chao Deng and Paul Vigna
Updated Sept. 11, 2017 8:16 p.m. ET
BEIJING—Chinese authorities are preparing to shut down the country’s bitcoin exchanges, according to people familiar with the matter, reflecting a growing unease with the virtual currency and its recent surge in value.
The policy shift in the world’s No. 2 economy shows how nations are wrestling with bitcoin and its place in the financial system. In China, specifically, the government’s attack on bitcoin comes amid a focus on preventing capital from fleeing to virtual currencies.
…
North Korea is trying to amass a bitcoin war chest
By Sherisse Pham
September 12, 2017: 9:38 AM ET
Hackers linked to North Korea are ramping up attempts to steal bitcoin in order to bring in money for Kim Jong Un’s regime, a top cybersecurity firm says.
Bitcoin and other forms of virtual money — known as cryptocurrencies — appeal to North Korea as the U.S. pursues international sanctions aimed at further isolating the country, according to a new report from FireEye.
“Sanctions against North Korea are likely to fuel their cybercrime activity,” said Bryce Boland, Singapore-based chief technology officer with FireEye. “Attacks on cryptocurrency exchanges can be a great vehicle to obtain what is ultimately hard currency.”
…
If the FED gives the interest on its treasury holdings and other bonds to the treasury what are the real costs and risks of having all these bonds on the balance sheet?
Seems like the more bonds they buy with printed money the more income comes into the treasury.
I guess some risk is losing money on those bonds when u sell them. If yields went up and prices down then the bonds would be worth less. But dont they basically control that market too?
Seems to me they can take this balance sheet to the moon and support more spending.
Money printing works great until when you print enough of it, the hypnosis that it has value can suddenly disappear. John Law’s Mississippi and the Weimar republic both printed for awhile before that happened.
I don’t believe there is a historical precedent for a global money printing phenomena like we have now and I think that’s why so many scholarly analysts have made wildly incorrect predictions.
But there are limits. A lot of that printed money in the US exists as “excess reserves.” When the Fed bought the bonds, they spewed cash. Now that they want to raise interest rates, they have to pay interest on those excess reserves. The “optics” are not very good when the Fed is paying banks over $10B a year for these excess reserves. BOJ now owns about 45% of all Japanese gov’t bonds, so there is another natural limit there.
Printing money also has the deleterious effect of increasing disparity of wealth. Working people will still get the same amount but asset owners benefit from their assets being inflated. This explains the increasing desperation to get on the “property ladder” as working people watch asset owners get richer. But at some point, houses can become so unaffordable that their prices attract fewer buyers, creating a slowdown, which can set a reversal in motion.
Then there is the mad hunt for yield. All that cash shoved into the economy has someone managing it and that someone wants a return. This has led to reckless investments in below investment grade debt that is unlikely to be repaid in a normal economy. So bond defaults can lead to a reversal.
I imagine there are many more Achilles heels in this system of govt’s issuing debt and CB’s buying but those are a few that come to mind.
‘I imagine there are many more Achilles heels’
Too many to count. Let me give one small example. Not long ago I posted a report where a merchant builder put up a luxury apartment in Tempe, AZ and recently sold it a couple years later for twice what it cost to build. Now if you had done that, what would you do? Build as many apartments as fast as you can, without regard to what the land cost or real demand for the air boxes.
I went down to milpitas last week. Not sure if this is the crown jewel of the bay area but didn’t seem that nice to me.
I took an off ramp off the 680 and noticed a bunch of tents in the brush by the freeway.
I saw the owner of the motel I stayed at driving a tesla. There is a huge wealth gap down there.
I went down to milpitas last week. Not sure if this is the crown jewel of the bay area but didn’t seem that nice to me.
No. I kinda like Milpitas but to me it’s one of the blue collar parts of the San Jose area. They’ve got a stinky landfill, some kind of prison, lots of railroad tracks. But some of the best Mexican food IMO.
Milpitas was where the blue collar workers from Ford and GM lived when the two assembly plants were functioning. Fremont if you could afford it.
Not sure if this is the crown jewel of the bay area but didn’t seem that nice to me ??
Not by a long shot….
This is why so many house flippers end up getting burned - they sink the money back into houses rather than keeping the initial windfall, then they lose everything.
Here’s a house of horrors from my old neighborhood:
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/pmf,pf_pt/21220842_zpid/33.791417,-118.114057,33.748108,-118.170534_rect/13_zm/
Pricing history:
08/24/17 Listed for sale $1,649,000
06/13/17 Listing removed
05/08/17 Listed for rent
02/08/17 Listing removed
01/19/17 Listed for sale $1,799,000
01/13/17 Listing removed
08/26/16 Listing removed
04/19/16 Listing removed
02/02/16 Pending sale $1,400,000
02/01/16 Listed for sale $1,400,000
03/21/12 Sold $700,000
Evidently the 700K was for a teardown (or a big remodel) that was replaced with an uninspiring “HGTV-type modern” something or other.
I’ve noticed a lot of this kind of pricing history going on in the Belmont Heights/Shores area over the last year. It appears that the bubble has popped there and the sellers just haven’t acknowledged it yet.
I live in Alamitos heights and have been on this blog since the beginning.
I don’t see a slow down in the Shore, Naples, Heights area at all.
Long Beach prices while not appearing to be a bargain are indeed a bargain compared to other beach communities.
Where else can you purchase a waterfront home with boat dock for $1.8
I also think we are due for a correction and last time it was 30-50%.
‘Now if you had done that, what would you do?‘
I’m generally risk averse, so my answer doesn’t add much insight. Someone who builds on spec already exhibits risk taking behavior. When risk taking is successful, dopamine (the reward neurotransmitter released during eating, sex and is implicated in addictive behaviors) is released. From there, certain cognitive biases will increase ( recency bias, optimism bias, neglect of probability bias, etc) and impulsivity issues can come to the fore. If you’ve ever seen someone who is convinced that they are on a “hot streak” disregard probabilities, you know what I mean.
A long winded way of saying, yeah, I think building will continue until the punishment begins.
Or as Chuck Prince of Citigroup famously said before the last financial crisis, “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing,”
I suspect with all the major central banks trying to devalue their currencies, that has muted inflation, as all currencies become equally bad. So no “cost-push” inflation (when prices rise from external factors like higher import costs, as opposed to “demand-pull” inflation, driven by rising demand). A curious global situation. Led by a common economic “best practices” playbook. Which may or may not be accurate. Also curious is how so many economies find themselves in this situation at once.
That’s why the government created affordable housing policy: To get all the working class and lower class people onto the “property ladder.”
And that’s why the government invented bailouts: To throw bones to the lower class people who were lured by “affordable housing” finance into buying homes, only to get wiped out when the mania eventually collapses of its own weight.
“Seems like the more bonds they buy with printed money the more income comes into the treasury.”
Sounds as though the more they print, the better…
Sounds as though the more they print, the better…
I’ve been saying this here from years: they can print as much as they want, to buy as much as they want, and generate as much bond income as they want. The only limit on their ability to do so is political. Of course, they spend as much of that income as they please, and then pass through the rest to the Treasury, so (other than that spending angle), they don’t really have a profit motive per se.
“I think right now, in this period of time, the zero down’s not going to hurt anybody.”
This time is different. Now where have I heard that before?
they are running out of suckers, aka buyers.
Did u see where Ford is going to eliminate credit requirements for cars? Nobody wants their overpriced Sh@T.
Your job is your credit!
And I read this morning in Bloomberg that China is phasing out gas cars and will only allow electric vehicles and hybrids. That is 1/3 of the entire global auto market! The incumbent internal combustion engine auto industry is in for a rude awaking, as is Saudi Arabia’s Aramco IPO.
“The Trump story helps inflate all kinds of bubbles, not just bitcoin. I think there are aspects of a housing bubble, and a stock market bubble right now.”
Poor Trump gets blamed for everything. Never mind the Fed going all-in with a $4.5 trillion balance sheet expansion and billions of MBS purchases explicitly targeted at housing price reflation… Housing Bubble 2.0 is Trump’s fault, because he is the president.
Don’t forget the hurricanes, those are because Mother Nature is pizzed at DJT, so sez puffy faced raccoon girl
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4424840/fury-as-jennifer-lawrence-says-deadly-hurricane-harvey-and-irma-are-fall-out-from-president-trumps-views-on-global-warming/
he called the stock market a bubble a few months ago
he said it was all rigged too. now he is claiming success for basically doing the same old thing.
he said ??
He says incoherent things every day…
Bubble on, Garth!
Dow
259.58 1.19%
S&P 500
26.68 1.08%
Nasdaq
72.07 1.13%
S&P 500 ends at record high as major U.S. stock indexes rally over 1%
S&P 500 logs 31st closing record of 2017 as stock market rallies
“Bubble on……”.
I’m am starting to think it will.
“Median home prices dropped to $216,000 in August, down from $231,000 the previous month, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Services.”
Annualized rate of decline:
((216/231)^12-1)*100% = -55%.
Tis a mere flesh wound!
I don’t think there’s a problem with zero down if you’re paying attention to the borrower. I think right now, in this period of time, the zero down’s not going to hurt anybody.’”
You beat me too it.
It is different this time. Unless the car breaks down, or someone loses a job or someone gets sick or…………
“It is different this time. Unless the car breaks down, or someone loses a job or someone gets sick or…………”
If this is the case they you can simply visit my bank and ask for the People Are Smart Dotted Line Special Plan and all your troubles will vanish the moment you apply your signature to the appropriate spots.
‘The likelihood of you (walking) away from something you never put your money into is greater, I agree with that, but I think the people buying these homes want to buy’
As opposed to people who buy shacks with a gun pointed at their head?
Houses simply have a great narrative: “American dream”, “ain’t making any more land”, “population growth”, “American manufacturing”, “economy based on housing”, “jobs”. Throw in speculative cash and voila, bubble. Throw in politicians getting more money via property taxes and they distribute public resources to keeping house prices high. Throw in current campaign finance laws and you have bought politicians writing laws to limit FIRE losses (QRM’s “no skin in the game” - they write regulation to deal with everything but root causes). Throw in the revolving door between the central banks and Wall Street and wow, it just has every opportunity to bubble. Throw in a media driven by advertising dollars and a FIRE sector with a huge media arm and it couldn’t get any more primed.
If Wall Street had been subject to market forces during the last crisis, it would have been destroyed. If they’d been subject to the rule of law, many would have gone to jail. But they’re The Untouchables.
However, redistributing wealth and corruption have consequences. If it’s not improving the lives of the citizenry, there’s going to be pushback until the electoral system is completely defanged and the Internet is fully “curated” to put the term politely.
Will the bubble burst again? I think so. However, the narrative will continue to exist even as speculators pull out. And the system is set up to remove risk from Wall Street while subtly extracting losses from the national wealth (”privatize the profits, socialize the losses”). Hard to say how the market will go when the law doesn’t dare touch you and the deepest pockets on the planet have got your back, and most legislators and central bankers own real estate.
“The best example right now is bitcoin. And I think that has to do with the motivating quality of the bitcoin story. And I’ve seen it in my students at Yale. You start talking about bitcoin and they’re excited! And I think, what’s so exciting?”
What’s so exciting about casino gambling, for that matter? I don’t get it, either.
“What’s so exciting about casino gambling, for that matter? I don’t get it, either.”
That’s because you don’t own the casino.
bitcoin is like tulip mania.
False. Do your due diligence - the value of bitcoin flows from its network effect. What ‘value’ would you have assigned FaceBook in 2005?
Well then, back up the digital truck and load up on bitcoin! Say hi to ol’ Bill when you’re there.
And pray that a hurricane or earthquake doesn’t take out the server which stores your precious blockchain.
Investors Say Being Long Bitcoin Is Now the Most Crowded Trade
By Dave Liedtka
September 12, 2017, 5:16 AM PDT
- Cryptocurrency has advanced more than fivefold this year
- China is said to be seeking restriction on domestic exchanges
- Elevation’s McNamee Says Bitcoin Is Probably in a Bubble
Chinese regulators aren’t the only ones getting nervous about the astronomical rally in bitcoin.
Bullish bets on the cryptocurrency are now considered the most crowded trade in financial markets, according to fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Twenty-six percent cited bitcoin, surpassing the 22 percent who considered the most overheated wager to be the long trade on the Nasdaq Composite Index. Shorting the dollar was third, at 21 percent.
…
Lost power from about 5 PM yesterday till about 8:30 AM today
(it does help if you are on the same grid as a Fire Dept. Hospital, Police they get them up first)
Trees and branches, neighbors fence down and some roof shingles. Overall my hood did fine.
Having been through storms that took out the power for over 2 weeks which made keeping gas in a larger generator a challenge, I picked up a Honda EU2000i 2000 watt generator. Ran it for 11 hours on about 1 1/2 gallons of gas. TV, refrigerator, fan and this morning coffee pot. Light and quiet ran great, I would recommend.
Praying for you palmetto.
I am traveling so I have a TV. It’s wall to wall threat and not just the weather channel. Back at the ranch:
http://nypost.com/2017/09/09/saudi-government-allegedly-funded-a-dry-run-for-911/
I thought I was the only one to notice the Weather Channel goons using the word threat every 5 minutes for the last 72 hours.
They used loaded words constantly. Menacing, danger looms.
Anyone remember “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself”?
It borders on purposeful mass hysteria. I can remember when hurricanes didn’t generate an army of round the clock, live on air simulcasts with reporters in patagonia rugged wear and galoshes breathlessly yelling out how windy it is while standing in in the deepest puddle they can find. I can also remember when viewers wouldn’t have paid any attention to such shenanigans.
1938 cain killed over 700
no fed $ , just sck it up
1928 Okeechobee hurricane
Early on September 17, the storm made landfall near West Palm Beach, Florida with winds of 145 mph (233 km/h). In the city, more than 1,711 homes were destroyed. Elsewhere in the county, impact was severest around Lake Okeechobee. The storm surge caused water to pour out of the southern edge of the lake, flooding hundreds of square miles as high as 20 feet (6.1 m) above ground. Numerous houses and buildings were swept away in the cities of Belle Glade, Canal Point, Chosen, Pahokee, and South Bay. At least 2,500 people drowned,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurricane
Hey, jeff, thanks for the prayers. We were fine here, the power stayed on the entire time. The worst part was the noise, accompanied by the driving rain. No damage to the house, all we had was the usual backyard flooding we get with heavy, sustained downpours.
We were lucky. Glad you came through fine.
Good for you.
“the power stayed on the entire time.”
Ours flickered on and off about 8 times during the day. At about 4:30 there was one of those nasty Feeder bands with the heavy winds like the one that woke me up at 5 AM training right over us. I told my wife and one daughter that came home if we made it through the next hour I didn’t think we would lose power.
Lost it at about 5 PM yesterday back on about 8:30 AM today.
But, but, but….CLIMATE CHANGE!!!
The DOD and USAF: Bringing you the finest in weather modification since 1947.
With a little help from Raytheon.
I dunno, I think I’d rather overprepare, than to stand in the middle of the storm and say “oh look, it’s just the Weather Channel shouting THREAT to sell Patagonia adrenaline-wear!” I think Rush Limbaugh was doing that.
Anyone remember “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself”?
I’m old alright, but not that old.
Maybe Trader Jack remembers…
generate an army of round the clock, live on air simulcasts ??
Thank God for sports channel and MLB network…
Speaking of… ” Menacing, danger looms.” and…
MORE FROM:
PAUL SPERRY
“These smart pups can sniff out terrorists hiding in plain sight”
Got me thinking of waiting for my stuffed pizza at Vinny’s Friday night.
The place is packed with people picking up pre hurricane pizzas and there is this one dude with a cute though pretty overweight Mut on a leash that in no way was going to pass for a service dog.
The people who worked there were too busy to notice but the guy wasn’t even a customer but an evacuee from Miami who was using their outlet by the register on the customer side to charge and talk on his i-phone. After about fifteen minutes this other guy steps up to the register to pay who hadn’t noticed the chubby dog that had been begging for food from the people who picked up and stepped on his paw.
The dog lets out a high pitched blood curdling scream, the customer looks down and yells what the fuqe and the dog owner looks like he’s going to punch the guy for stepping on his dog.
Realizing there is a dog there, they send a 16 year old girl around to ask “is that a service dog?” It turned into an argument about hurricane protocol superseding health department laws in an emergency
The dude and his overweight pup finally took their i-phone and split with me and the other guy at the table by the register looking at the floor and chuckling.
PS
I still hope palmetto comes out of this with his power on and his home and car dry.
“I still hope palmetto comes out of this with his power on and his home and car dry.”
Thank you, jeff. I guess my other post didn’t make it yet, but yes, power’s on, car is dry, house is intact.
‘Ran it for 11 hours on about 1 1/2 gallons of gas’. That’s pretty good. I take it you alternated the tv / fridge / fan etc?
We lost power back in 2014 and I used a 3200 watt gas generator, don’t recall the brand. Was great to have it to run the fridge, etc but boy that thing was god awful loud.
We have gas so I’d like to get one that I can run directly off the gas line to avoid having to get gasoline.
“I take it you alternated the tv / fridge / fan etc?”
Nope, ran all three.
http://powerequipment.honda.com/generators/models/eu2000i
Golden State Finance Authority or the California Housing Finance Agency, state agencies that support residents trying to buy homes, for as much as 5 percent of the loan amount — enough to cover the remainder of the down payment and most if not all closing costs.”
add 2? state more housing agencies to 10+? fed get more housing agencies
OT Will feds pay for scuffed up boats and shacks?
“Will feds pay for scuffed up boats and shacks?”
Will politicians freely spend your tax dollars to purchase their constituents’ votes?
Hehe… I like your attitude.
“Quartz: Hasn’t the internet democratized information? Someone can promote their views widely without getting buy-in from editors or other gatekeepers? That’s what Trump has done with Twitter.”
I almost never watch 60 Minutes, unless there’s something on that I feel is really compelling. So, while I was waiting for the storm to pass, I watched the interview with Steve Bannon.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-breitbart-steve-bannon-declares-war-on-the-gop/
Awesome. I’m not worthy. My favorite part was his takedown of the Bush administration.
Yeah I thought it was good too. Kind of confrontational. Both men seemed a bit contemptuous(?) of each other. But the kind of debate I wish we’d have more of instead of the idiotic twitter wars that seem to compose most of the national debate lately.
+1, Carl. He sort of bobbled the response re: Cardinal Dolan, though. The answer to meddling clerics, of any religion, should be a strongly worded response regarding the separation of church and state, with the implication being “Dooya like your favored tax and legal status? Dooya, punk?”
It sounded to me like both men were practicing Catholics and therefore between the two of them it was a much more complicated question that it is for non-Catholics.
It’s only as complicated as they want to make it. As a lapsed Catholic, I can tell you that at a very early age I was taught about “”Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s, and unto God the things that are God’s”. That right there should be the church’s view of the matter. Separation of church and state is the government’s view. Essentially, they are in agreement, so I don’t see what the problem is.
I also had a bit of a problem with the whole China issue. I am in agreement with Bannon on it, up until he mentioned “forced technology transfers”. Say what? No one is forcing multinationals based in the US to transfer anything to China. It’s a choice they make in order to manufacture there.
And if the government doesn’t like it (personally I don’t think Washington gives a rat’s patootie, but just for the sake of argument) this is easily solved:
Want to manufacture in China? Very well. Please relocate your facilities, management and work force and their families there immediately. PS: Your products are barred from entry into the US. Ever.
the limo lib comment hit rose in the jock
break…….
The communists love censoring.
I’ll have to check that out, palmetto.
60 Minutes, heh. We forget that 30 years ago, it had ratings up the wazoo because it was the only game in town.
60 Minutes and Saturday Night Live.
For me 60 minutes is a great example of what was brought up here last week. Their stories are very believable unless you are actually an expert on what they are reporting on. I have to fight my human nature of still assuming they are correct on the things I am not an expert on.
“Toronto Home Sales Fall In August, Prices Down 20 Percent From Peak”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-housing/toronto-home-sales-fall-in-august-prices-down-20-percent-from-peak-idUSKCN1BH1EN
“A Coachella Valley lender is trying to entice buyers with the promise of getting into a home with a tiny down payment — or none at all. They’re not the kind of zero-down loans lenders offered in the years leading up to the housing market’s 2008 crash. But with clever stacking of programs, they allow people to buy houses without putting down much, if any, cash.”
Kinda like last time, but this time is completely different.
And there I was thinking that these buyers were being forced against their will. Why would they walk away later if they really, REALLY want to buy right now? What amazing insight.
Realtors are liars.
“Despite rising home prices, this isn’t 2005 again”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/where-we-live/wp/2017/09/11/despite-rising-home-prices-this-isnt-2005-again/
“By David Howell”
http://www.mcenearney.com/our-associates/info/davidhowell/
There’s that nagging credibility problem again.
Funny thing that the article credits don’t mention that McNearney Associates is a real estate agency, nor does he mention this in the article. He writes as though this were all some kind of objective analysis.
Got into a dispute with the agency head one time when the question was asked whether it was the LTV or quality of buyer which offered more security for the loan.
I said the quality of the buyer, as a good person will pay his bills, whereas the LTV had to be litigated to get the loan paid.
That was 40-50 years ago, and I still think I was right.
But with today’s population I may be wrong as there seems to be a different philosophy about debts owed by people.
I think the character of the buyer is worth a few percentage points of down payment…for sure.
However, would I rather make 100 loans at 95% of value to high integrity borrowers? Or 100 loans at 20% LTV to “lower quality” buyers (whatever that means)?
I’d go with the super-low LTV loans all day long. Yes, you need to litigate to get your money if they default, but they would rather sell on the open market and get some money, than risk even that in a foreclosure auction setting. And with the right documentation, they need to reimburse you for your cost of collection.
The 20% LTV portfolio is a no brainer because there’s so much equity. What about 75% LTV or higher? Then it becomes a bit more complicated.
I completely agree. My point is that it’s not either/or, but a combination of quality borrower and skin in the game.
At some point, it’s a loan entirely about the collateral…and that point is different depending on the circumstances.
The 20% down is better for the banker IF the banker is holding the loan himself. No matter what the buyer does, the banker can fire-sale the house for 15% less than purchase price and at least break even.
But now that bankers are just originating loans and selling them to Fannie Mae, I guess they don’t need to care as much about down payment.
But now that bankers are just originating loans and selling them to Fannie Mae, I guess they don’t need to care as much about down payment.
Not just down-payment—they don’t have to care at all about ANY of the three C’s, or at least, not for long.
If I was interested in any of these houses I would offer $6.25 for them (that’s what I have in quarters right now). It never hurts to bid low!
Lewiston, ID Housing Prices Crater 26% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/lewiston-id/market-trends/
Taking a moment to commemorate 9/11.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=yuC_4mGTs98
Robert Shiller: “I think there are aspects of a housing bubble, and a stock market bubble right now.”
Wasn’t he saying just a few months ago that there was definitely no housing bubble going on?
It’s tough to be critical of the hand that signs your paycheck.
is it possible for central banks to print wealth? what are they really doing?
I dunno, but Houston’s mayor wants to tax some wealth into existence. What an a$$ clown.
http://abc13.com/mayor-proposes-nearly-9-percent-property-tax-increase/2404840/
the buy an island folks may have taken a hit
Looks like the “visit the islands” folks are a bit shaken up, and I don’t blame them. Civil unrest in the islands.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4872376/Richard-Branson-s-son-warns-civil-unrest.html
Anarchy is just below the surface in many of these places. The poverty of the islanders is hidden by the resort/tropical paradise industry.
Same looting as in Houston, Miami.
The poverty of the islanders is hidden by the resort/tropical paradise industry.
I can only imagine what goes through their minds watching the endless flow of outsiders who spend more on the vacation that what a hotel staffer makes in a year.
I am reminded of an anecdote. A friend’s mother used to be an executive with the Ritz Carlton chain. They were building a luxury resort somewhere beachy and third worldish. The construction workers were snagging the cardboard boxes materials were packaged in to use to build their homes. Truly a globalist’s dream come true.
The looting reminds me of Ferguson, MO.