September 14, 2017

Blinded By A State Of Euphoria

A report from the Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. “I have a ‘liar loan’ – a mortgage based on less than absolutely factual information. I’ve pretty much always had liar loans. And I recently obtained a ‘liar credit card.’ So what? Given readers’ (and therefore the media’s) love of stories that combine housing and doomsday scenarios, investment bank UBS received saturation coverage with its idea that $500 billion in ‘liar loans’ are a hanging over the Australian housing market, set to come crashing down on the economy at the first hint of trouble and damn us all to hell.”

“How many people want to do the work to supply detailed financial information about their mortgage application and, apparently, admit they lied? Something isn’t adding up. And there’s the particular case of the ANZ which received the worst result: ‘Of those who took out loans with ANZ in 2017 (directly or through a broker), 55 per cent of respondents stated their application was completely factual and accurate (implying 45 per cent of customers misstated their application), down from 66 per cent in 2016.’”

“The most obvious point is, when applying directly to your bank, the bank should know more about your finances than you do anyway. For my ‘liar loans,’ all my income and spending washes through the bank cheque account. I’m Australian – near enough is good enough.”

From The Herald. “Soaring house prices have lifted the wealth of the average Sydney household to $1.3 million, but hundreds of thousands of families in the city have been left ‘over-indebted.’ The Bureau of Statistics’ latest survey of income and wealth has classified 407,000 Sydney households with property loans as over-indebted, meaning they owe at least three times more than they earn in year. The typical over-indebted household in Sydney is carrying a hefty $765,400 in total property debt.”

“‘Growth in debt has outpaced income and asset growth since 2003-04,’ the bureau said. ‘Rising property values, low interest rates and a growing appetite for larger debts have all contributed to increased over-indebtedness.’ Nationally, average household debt has almost doubled since 2003-04.”

The Australian Financial Review. “Scott Morrison made a rare appearance at the Council of Financial Regulators’ meeting in March, and he had housing investors in his sights. Property price growth in Sydney and Melbourne had accelerated into double digits over the first two months of the year, exposing the federal Treasurer to Labor’s demands for a crackdown on property tax breaks.”

“Back in 2015, Treasury secretary John Fraser had already called out a housing price bubble. By early 2017, loans that required the investor to repay only interest costs had rocketed to a disturbing 40 per cent of lending. APRA fired off a round: lenders would have to rein this back to 30 per cent. It’s the byproduct of a long period of bank misconduct and scandals. These climaxed with last month’s explosive charges against the Commonwealth Bank of Australia by the anti-money-laundering agency AUSTRAC, the other financial regulator on the rise.”

The West Australian. “The liquidators of Diploma Group say they are likely to urge creditors to reject a rescue plan proposed by the family behind the failed builder-developer. The insolvency specialists from Grant Thornton are nevertheless seeking a Federal Court order allowing their appointment as administrators of the listed Diploma entity so a vote can be held. The liquidators estimated the revised Deed of Company Arrangement would see a return to unsecured creditors of between zero and 3.31¢ in the dollar. Under a liquidation scenario, it was between zero and 11.6¢.”

From The Australian. “The slowdown in the apartment market is worsening and will have a severe impact on the economy if it is not arrested, according to the country’s biggest apartment builder, billionaire Harry Triguboff. The number of new apartments sold had dropped and prices had fallen about 10 per cent over the past six months, the founder of Meriton Group told The Australian. ‘The falling prices will have a big impact on the economy,’ said Mr Triguboff. ‘The big question is whether the government will allow prices and volumes to go down before they start helping. Australians could lose an enormous amount of wealth.’”

“China’s continued restrictions on capital flowing out of the country, the local banking crackdown limiting finance for investors and sluggish domestic wages growth had combined with government policies causing a perfect storm for apartment construction. At the same time, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe last week said he was watching the Brisbane property market carefully, particularly given the pressure on prices from the large rise in the supply of new apartments in that city.”

From Domain News. “In an effort to sell off enough apartments to allow construction to go ahead, one Brisbane developer has slashed prices by 12 per cent, and halved the upfront costs on two-bedroom units in a Cannon Hill development. The third tower of Lime Living is nearing its scheduled construction date, without enough apartments sold to commence. Project marketers Colliers International have taken the opportunity to target first-home buyers, offering a 5 per cent upfront deposit for those looking to take their first step into the property market.”

“Associate director for residential Rachel Hutson said it wasn’t common for a developer to be willing to slash prices and take a lower deposit on an off-the-plan apartment. ‘It’s very rare,’ she said. ‘The only other projects that have offered close to 12 per cent is where the original buyers have defaulted.’”

“Settlement risk and lowered investor appetite was another reason why Colliers wanted to target owner-occupiers rather than investors. ‘There are investors who have bought in there,’ Ms Hutson said.”

From the University of Melbourne. “Amid sky rocketing house prices in Sydney and Melbourne, record low interest rates, and a tax system that works in favour of investors - those who entered the housing market at the right time are reaping the benefits. But after 25 years of unprecedented economic growth in Australia, are we still in a boom or are we blinded by a state of euphoria?”

“Melbourne University Economist Dr Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo sees some alarming parallels between the Australian housing market and the evolution of asset prices in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, which was a famous example of a so-called ‘Minsky moment’. A ‘Minsky moment’ is named after the Polish economist Hyman Minsky, whose work focused on boom-times and the transition from boom to crash.”

“‘An easy way to envisage a Minsky moment is to think of a timeline,’ says Dr Greenwood-Nimmo. ‘To illustrate the idea, let’s start when the economy comes out of a recession. After a recession growth is generally quite quick and there are lots of profit opportunities if you’re a lender. You can make a lot of money and there’s not a lot of risk because the economy is growing fast. If that boom phase continues for a long time, people get complacent. It’s this complacency that can turn into a Minsky moment.’”

“‘After 25 years of growth, it could be that a euphoric sentiment has taken hold in the housing market,’ he warns. ‘The good times have been going on so long, people start thinking they will go on forever. In a euphoric market, safety margins get eroded. By that, I mean that banks become increasingly willing to make large loans based on small deposits and borrowers become increasingly willing to take on a large debt burden. As long as house prices continue to rise, this strategy can work but it only takes a small shock to put you underwater on your mortgage.’”

“‘A Minsky moment occurs when the euphoria ends, prices slump and those euphoric investors suddenly realise that they’re high and dry. The greater the proportion of investors that were swept up in the euphoria, the worse the overall outcome for the economy at large.’ he said.”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 09:45:03

‘The Australian Securities Exchange has issued a “please explain” letter to 50 Chinese companies listed on the local bourse regarding any problems they may have with capital flow in and out of China. This was prompted when one group, Ding Sheng Xin Finance, went into suspension on August 29 after failing to submit its annual results on time. But the group did not issue a reason why, which piqued the ASX interest.’

‘The ASX is now asking the companies if they are having any trouble repatriating or converting Chinese renminbi (RMB) into foreign currencies and if they are aware of any changes to laws in China that may prohibit the repatriation or conversion of RMB to foreign cash.’

‘The move comes after the Chinese government issued new guidelines to curb capital outflow spending. The companies are across a range of industries from property, agriculture, mining and technology.’

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-09-14 10:18:05

Realtors are liars.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 10:18:18

‘The liquidators estimated the revised Deed of Company Arrangement would see a return to unsecured creditors of between zero and 3.31¢ in the dollar. Under a liquidation scenario, it was between zero and 11.6¢’

It’s gonna be another twitter.

Comment by 2banana
2017-09-14 10:34:23


That is a FB.

The exits are narrow.

Comment by 2banana
2017-09-14 10:18:32

I have met many tax refugees from the NE. Insane housing prices with insane property taxes.

Yes, a beautiful house can be worth less than zero depending on the tax liabilities.

2banana’s Rule:

Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh*t army = ruin, misery and bankruptcy


$200,000 cops: why NY property taxes keep soaring
NYPOST | 9/13/17

Wonder why New York property taxes are sky-high, particularly in the Long Island and Lower Hudson Valley suburbs around the city? The Empire Center’s latest analysis flags one key reason: the astounding pay doled out to government workers in those areas — especially uniformed services, like police and firefighters.

The No. 1 earner, Ramapo Police Officer Thomas Donnelly, pulled in $441,968 in the year ending last March. Four other Rockland County cops joined him in the top 10.

The 20 officers in the Nassau County Village of Kings Point (pop. 5,005 in the last Census) had the highest average pay of any group of government workers at $220,088.

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2017-09-14 20:36:17

It seems the people just lay down and take it. Until you see pitchforks at the steps of the county assessor, expect it to continue unabated.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-09-14 10:34:32

Manor Park Washington DC Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY

Comment by julie
2017-09-14 10:42:39

Anyone have any ideas of specific 4 year college majors that lead to actual good jobs? Thanks. My son has to choose.

Comment by taxpayer
2017-09-14 10:55:45

accounting, the rest of biz is too easy
engineering, especially having to do w internet data distribution

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-09-14 11:19:53

So continuing from yesterday, I think his interests still have to play into it. For example my son is 16 and likes tech as a user but tried coding and didn’t like it that much so far.

What he really likes is writing and journalism. OK. Not a great field, but like everything else there’s always room for one more if you’re one of the best. So we’ve talked some about that and about how he needs to plan to be the best if that’s what he really wants to do.

And then my advice…get an engineering degree and specialize in technical writing. One, I could actually help him get a job that way if necessary. Two, if he’s going to really be a journalist, that way he would be the rare unicorn journalist that actually knows how things work and how to ask the more difficult questions.

So that’s one example…so what does your son really like? Even if it seems pie-in-the-sky?

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2017-09-14 20:38:46

Not everybody can be “the best.” It’s pretty sad what this country has turned into. If you’re not “the best,” you may not be able to land a job with a degree.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-09-15 10:14:02

Yup. If you’re not “the best”, they would rather have an H1B. And if they can’t get an H1B then they’ll just endlessly complain that there are no qualified applicants and leave the position open and wait for next year’s H1Bs.

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Comment by rms
2017-09-15 12:53:49

Not everybody can be “the best.”

Helping an early twenties engineer porting over roughly 23k scada tags with about 2.5m obs each. Talk about a short attention span… not sure how he got through college.

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Comment by BearCat
2017-09-14 11:22:01

You shouldn’t go to college to learn specific skills - colleges aren’t good at that anyway, and what specifics you need to know will vary with the company and over time.

Instead, here are some things to consider:
1. Is major something he is interested in? If it isn’t interesting, I think he’s more likely to drop out, change majors, not work as hard, or not like his job.
2. Can you make good money in that area or a related area? What is the competition like? Long term prospects? If not, go back to step 1. For example for piano, if your goal is to be a concert pianist — good luck! But if you’re willing to be a teach, then it can be pretty good, especially if you’re in a larger metro area (>$75/hour, often cash).
3. The college matters. Can he do 2 tours JC/CC to get requirements out of the way and transfer to a more expensive 4-year? Does the college emphasize undergraduate education, sports, research, or something else? Does it make it easy to graduate in 4 years? (Many colleges nowadays don’t) Is it too expensive relative to the estimated benefits? Would he benefit from working for a year or two before starting?

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 12:27:07

Don’t feed the troll.

Comment by scdave
2017-09-14 13:13:06

4 year college majors that lead to actual good jobs ??

Read the posts above by 2-fruit…Become a cop or firefighter…

Comment by MacBeth
2017-09-14 18:26:50

Firefighter is the better choice of the job.

Cops actually work, and the threat to their life is considerably greater. Fires don’t deliberately seek to cause injury. A thug with a gun does sometimes deliberately seek to cause injury.

Firefighters have it made.

Comment by sod
2017-09-14 18:56:44

Funny timing, I had just finished reading the Michael Lewis book Boomerang (old now but it was free with Prime) which includes a section on Police and Firefighter pay and pensions killing local government budgets. I was on a day of leave from work and ran over to the new barber shop that’s across the street from the local fire department. I was hoping to get in and get out as I had somewhere else to be but there were only two barbers in action, both had people in their chairs and there were 3 “on duty” fireman in uniform waiting for hair cuts. I didn’t wait.

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Comment by sod
2017-09-14 19:22:02

firemen that is

Comment by rms
2017-09-15 07:19:49

“…there were 3 “on duty” fireman in uniform…”

They likely carry a cell phone; on standby status. Skilled professionals don’t work on assembly lines.

Comment by taxpayer
2017-09-14 11:28:46

Recent data from Statistics Canada show that the economy is on a strong footing. Canada’s economy expanded 4.5% on an annualized basis in the second quarter of 2017, as household spending surged, owing to strong consumer confidence

por que?

the re market in can.a.DUH scks

Comment by MightyMike
2017-09-14 11:35:43

Maybe there are a lot of people whose confidence is not affected by their Zestimate. That would be a sensible attitude.

Comment by julie
2017-09-14 11:30:40

He wants to be a linguist. I told him to go and work for the NSA but I really don’t know much about any of it. Computers also might work since he has an affinity for languages.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-09-14 11:53:17

Military language school, Monterey. Good duty as military things go. Choose the language carefully though. I recommend Mandarin.

Comment by rms
2017-09-15 07:22:42

+1 Defense Language Institute

Comment by BearCat
2017-09-14 12:03:01

Technical translation? There should be a market (but I’m guessing) for that since very few people are good at both languages and technical terms

Comment by julie
2017-09-14 11:40:11

It’s good to have a practical approach. I have two bachelor’s and part of a Master’s because I couldn’t really figure out what to do, and even after all of that time and expense, I ended up making my money by house flipping which has nothing to do with anything I studied! I just want him to avoid the time and expense of college unless he is really getting trained to do something economically feasible. I also told him about those actuary exams.

Comment by taxpayer
2017-09-14 12:22:11

the trades are good- some on the books, some trade,some cash

they crush most college grads ,especially liberal artists

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 12:25:04

‘I ended up making my money by house flipping’

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-09-14 12:27:33

Gold Beach, OR Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY

Comment by taxpayer
2017-09-14 12:39:00

anyone know the FEMA handout schemes?
looks like you can live in a hotel for zip for a while. Insurance not required.

tumpf hanging out w shumer will cost Big-ly

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 12:47:31

‘What happened’ is the title of Hillary Clinton’s new 464-page book.’

‘The answer, it transpires, is the most whiny, self-pitying, deluded load of literary claptrap written since Kim Kardashian’s ‘I was empowering women’ defense for posting naked bird-flipping selfies.’

Mike is gonna have a meltdown.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-09-14 13:19:46

Piers Morgan is just trying to distract himself from his disappointment with Trump.

Piers Morgan: Trump becoming ‘President Paranoid Snowflake’

Journalist and former CNN host Piers Morgan blasted President Trump on Friday, calling the commander in chief “President Paranoid Snowflake.”

Morgan took issue with Trump’s claim Wednesday, following the appointment of a special counsel to investigate ties between Russia’s meddling in the presidential election, that “no politician in history has been treated worse or more unfairly,” arguing that others have had it worse.

“As many rushed to point out, assassinated US presidents Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy probably had it worse,” he wrote in an opinion column for the Daily Mail.

“Oh, and on the wider world stage, Nelson Mandela spent 27 years in a tiny prison cell and Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi was kept under house arrest for 15 years,” he added. “By comparison to all these politicians, Mr Trump, you’ve indisputably had it easy.”

Morgan, however, maintained that the most notable aspect of Trump’s statement was not the claim but the “self-pitying tone.”

“But it wasn’t your factually inaccurate claim that perturbed me so much as the self-pitying tone that went with it. Since when, and I say this with great respect, did you turn into President Snowflake? What happened to the tough, no-nonsense, fearless winner who was going to make America great again?” he asked.

“The guy that campaigned so brilliantly to pull off the greatest coup in US election history wouldn’t recognize the one begging us to feel sorry for him now.” Morgan added.

Comment by jeff
2017-09-14 14:00:57


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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 14:34:36

‘investigate ties between Russia’s meddling’

Hey, what happened to that? Remember when we were told day after day that Trump was on his way out, gonna be impeached any minute now? Maxine Waters told us so!

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Comment by MightyMike
2017-09-14 15:37:15

Mueller’s still working on it. He’s probably very thorough and not in any hurry.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 15:48:38

Jeebus I bet you have your hopes set high. It’s going to be crushing for you when it settles in that it’s already dead in the water. CNN: Oh, look over there, a hurricane!

Comment by MightyMike
2017-09-14 16:15:34

No, I don’t have any hopes. And I don’t see how you can know at this point what the result will be.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 16:27:25

“And just like that-they stopped talking about Russia
What if the DNC Russian “hack” was really a leak after all? A new report raises questions media and Democrats would rather ignore

A group of intelligence pros and forensic investigators tell The Nation there was no hack— the media ignores it

Last week the respected left-liberal magazine The Nation published an explosive article that details in great depth the findings of a new report — authored in large part by former U.S. intelligence officers — which claims to present forensic evidence that the Democratic National Committee was not hacked by the Russians in July 2016. Instead, the report alleges, the DNC suffered an insider leak, conducted in the Eastern time zone of the United States by someone with physical access to a DNC computer.

This report also claims there is no apparent evidence that the hacker known as Guccifer 2.0 — supposedly based in Romania — hacked the DNC on behalf of the Russian government. There is also no evidence, the report’s authors say, that Guccifer handed documents over to WikiLeaks. Instead, the report says that the evidence and timeline of events suggests that Guccifer may have been conjured up in an attempt to deflect from the embarrassing information about Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign that was released just before the Democratic National Convention. The investigators found that some of the “Guccifer” files had been deliberately altered by copying and pasting the text into a “Russianified” word-processing document with Russian-language settings.”

“If all this is true, these findings would constitute a massive embarrassment for not only the DNC itself but the media, which has breathlessly pushed the Russian hacking narrative for an entire year, almost without question but with little solid evidence to back it up.”

“You could easily be forgiven for not having heard about this latest development — because, perhaps to avoid potential embarrassment, the media has completely ignored it.”

Comment by MightyMike
2017-09-14 16:53:05

The Nation adds lengthy editor’s note to story questioning DNC hack

The Nation magazine acknowledged on Friday that an article claiming it would have been “impossible based on the data” for Russia-backed hackers to be behind the leak of Democratic National Committee (DNC) emails was not supported by its own evidence.

The article, penned by reporter Patrick Lawrence and published in early August, hinged on technical claims roundly disputed by technical experts — including the expert brought in by The Nation in its review of the article.

“As part of the editing process, however, we should have made certain that several of the article’s conclusions were presented as possibilities, not as certainties,” The Nation editor Katrina vanden Heuvel wrote in a lengthy editor’s note added to the article.

Lawrence claimed that it would be impossible for a remote hacker — including one in Russia — to have downloaded leaked DNC documents at the high speeds implied by metadata contained in the files. Therefore, Lawrence reasoned, it would only be possible for the files to be downloaded directly from a DNC terminal to a USB drive, suggesting that the emails were taken by an internal leaker instead of hackers.

That claim was based on metadata showing that the documents had, at one point, been copied at a speed of about 23 megabytes-per-second, a rate faster than home internet services allow.

But experts note that commercial internet services used by businesses can reach speeds more than five times as fast as 23 megabytes-per-second. And, even if the data had showed that a USB drive was used at one point, there would be no reason to believe that it wasn’t used to transport the documents from one Russian system to another.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 16:59:34

Keep hoping Mike. It’s all a bad dream, all 8 more years of it.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-09-14 15:41:19

“literary claptrap”

Good. She lost because enough of us wanted her to go away. Now she can go. See ya.

Comment by scdave
2017-09-14 16:22:51

enough of us wanted her to go away ??

More wanted her to stay.

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Comment by MightyMike
2017-09-14 16:28:14

California doesn’t count for some reason.

Comment by Obama Goons
2017-09-14 16:39:38

Get your rage-ravaged skulls on the Trump Train.

Comment by Ol'Bubba
2017-09-14 16:42:25

“California doesn’t count for some reason.”

It doesn’t count because it’s California. Is that so hard to understand?

Comment by MightyMike
2017-09-14 16:51:21

Yeah, it’s hard to understand, like astrology.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-09-14 17:02:52

There were enough.

Comment by jeff
2017-09-14 18:30:48

“California doesn’t count for some reason.”

Did the Russians steal California’s 55 electoral votes?

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-09-14 20:03:09

This review is more favorable.

Political books
Look back in anger: Hillary Clinton’s ‘What Happened’
The presidential candidate’s memoir of defeat is written with a zest that would have benefited her lacklustre campaign
12 hours ago
by Edward Luce

Rarely has a book been as pilloried as Hillary Clinton’s What Happened before anyone even read it. The idea that Clinton could return to the stage less than a year after losing to Donald Trump was deemed highly selfish. Such a memoir could only trigger Democratic post-traumatic stress syndrome. It would consist of special pleading and personal score settling. There are plenty of both in Clinton’s impassioned 2016 autopsy. But there is an element that was glaringly absent from her last two books: it is a compelling read. To anyone who waded through the formulaic prose of Living History (2003) or Hard Choices (2014), this may come as a shock. Having curated her image for so long, Clinton has finally given vent to her feelings.

Some of her candour is therapeutic. Having been near universally forecast to beat Trump on November 8, Clinton’s loss was far greater than your run-of-the-mill defeat. It induced a paralysing guilt — and anger — at having let “an unqualified bully become President of the United States”. Friends commended the virtues of Xanax, the anti-anxiety drug, or therapy. “[T]hat wasn’t for me,” she writes. “Never has been.” Though she drank her share of Chardonnay that was no palliative either. Nor was the idea of spending her life in mourning “like Miss Havisham from Charles Dickens’s Great Expectations, rattling around my house obsessing over what might have been”. Still, Clinton barely left home for the first few weeks. Every time she opened the paper to read of Trump’s shenanigans was like “ripping off a scab”. There are still times, she confesses, “when all I want to do is scream into a pillow”.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 20:08:18

‘Though she drank her share of Chardonnay…“ripping off a scab” there are still times, she confesses, “when all I want to do is scream into a pillow’

Stamping your little feet helps, I hear. Right Mike?

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Comment by jeff
2017-09-15 07:06:34

“it is a compelling read.”

“Clinton has finally given vent to her feelings.”

If Edward Luce reads his review of Hillary Clinton’s ‘What Happened’ to anyone in person he had better be ready for puke splatter on his shoes.

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Comment by julie
2017-09-14 12:40:17

Let me assure you I am not a troll. Just because I have done something that maybe you think is impossible does not mean I’m a troll. I have kids so I’m not going to go into what I’ve done in more detail, but after a divorce I took a little money and turned it into a lot of money by moving my kids around every year. It was incredibly hard on them, but now we have two paid off houses and things are much better. My oldest son has lived in 8 states! BUT, the reason I started posting on here is because I think the easy money has been made. I think a crash is coming.

Comment by patrollman
2017-09-14 12:51:38

You’re a troll.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 12:51:40

‘I have kids so I’m not going to go into what I’ve done in more detail’

Oh come now anonjulie, you can regale us with your tales of riches and easy money without fear of little Tommy being outed. What was it? Florida condo? Inland empire stucco shack?

Comment by da bear
2017-09-14 13:05:16

Go to a used book store. Load up. Especially business, but I would also recommend books on poker and card counting. Chess, too. Learn to trade. Stocks, metals, bitcoin. It’s all the same. They trade in fractal patterns. I would call it Elliott Wave but the textbook models are WRONG. It’s not 5 up, 3 down. It’s 5 up then 5 down. Wave 4 subdivides into 3 waves (a-b-c).

College: top Ivies, Stanford, Caltech, MIT, or a major football conference school. Technically the school “owes” you free/discounted basketball and football tickets. word to the wise… classes: 3D Printing I would think… web design. Major? Get a 4.0 or as high as possible. Major? Tech or engineering or something. Minor in marketing. Bidness is marketing and life is bidness. Take some sales classes. Buy Marc Rudov’s books. Know who Dan Kennedy is. Intern! Work in the summer! Plan on an MBA (maybe) so make sure your resume looks good to the heavy hitters.

da bear

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 14:36:33

Two words: power ball.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-09-14 13:43:13

I think a crash is coming.

That’s where I figured this was going. Time for the kid to step up…

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-09-14 15:54:13

I made my first fortune splitting firewood. $4/hr baby and plenty of fresh air. That paid for college. Maybe that kind of easy money is gone?

I could become a flipper. I could probably triple my money if I cash out now before the crash. What does everyone think I should do?

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2017-09-14 20:48:45


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Comment by tresho
2017-09-14 22:02:53

I paid for college unloading 80 lb bags of crushed limestone from a semi trailer, and shampooing every dorm hallway rug for $1.60 an hour. Some fresh air, lots of stinky air. That kind of easy money IS gone.

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Comment by tresho
2017-09-14 22:04:13

Of course, my first used car cost $150 & lasted about 30,000 miles before I junked it. Gas was 30 cents a gallon then.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-09-15 06:58:29

Gas was 30 cents a gallon then…

And the gas station gave you a yellow smiley mug with a fillup.

Comment by julie
2017-09-14 13:54:54

I’m not rich, that’s not what I’m saying. I am just glad not to be homeless in the overpriced housing situation right now in the US.

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-09-14 15:57:18

What will you do to earn a living when the houses you own don’t pay you?

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 14:37:53

‘The most obvious point is, when applying directly to your bank, the bank should know more about your finances than you do anyway. For my ‘liar loans,’ all my income and spending washes through the bank cheque account. I’m Australian – near enough is good enough’

This has got to be a sign of something.

Comment by taxpayers
2017-09-14 15:33:28

‘The big question is whether the government will allow prices and volumes to go down before they start helping. Australians could lose an enormous amount of wealth.’”

the government=unconscious taxpayers

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-09-14 15:52:16

Australians could lose an enormous amount of wealth.

I’m confused, is somebody coming to steal all those houses and land and metal ore? :-)

Comment by Blue Skye
2017-09-14 16:03:15

What is wealth exactly, when you are in a quagmire of debt?

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-09-14 16:17:02

The stuff you need to hide or protect from the debt collector?

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Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-09-14 16:24:41

Castro Valley, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY

Comment by palmetto
2017-09-14 17:23:17

We may not have to worry about housing much longer.

China say: Buy our stuff or we’ll vaporize you.

US say: We will rebuild!

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2017-09-14 20:50:56

The fat Korean kid is just itching to be wiped off the map.

Comment by tresho
2017-09-14 22:05:41

The fat Korean kid is just itching to be wiped off the map. But, but, but no one wants to be downwind of his remains afterwards.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-09-14 17:33:57

“Soaring house prices have lifted the wealth of the average Sydney household to $1.3 million, but hundreds of thousands of families in the city have been left ‘over-indebted.’ The Bureau of Statistics’ latest survey of income and wealth has classified 407,000 Sydney households with property loans as over-indebted, meaning they owe at least three times more than they earn in year. The typical over-indebted household in Sydney is carrying a hefty $765,400 in total property debt.”

That debt burden sounds like it may be even worse than the average California household debt burden. But not a lot worse. Does anyone have the data?

Comment by Professor 🐻
Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 17:49:16

‘Since the recession, student loan debt, which now tops $1.3 trillion, has been second only to mortgage debt (currently $8.7 trillion). Auto loan debt ($1.2 trillion) has also surpassed credit card debt ($1 trillion) during this time, though credit card debt has set a new record as well, surpassing the previous mark from April 2008. Moreover, the portion of credit card balances delinquent after 30 days jumped to 6.2 percent from 5.1 percent during the same period last year.’

“This record should serve as a wake-up call to Americans to focus on their credit card debt,” senior industry analyst Matt Schulz told MarketWatch. “Even if you feel your debt is manageable right now, know that you could be one unexpected emergency away from real trouble.”

‘This is a particular concern, given that 78 percent of U.S. workers live paycheck to paycheck, up from 75 percent last year, according to a recent CareerBuilder study. That includes nearly 10 percent of those earning at least $100,000 a year.’

“Living paycheck to paycheck is the new way of life for U.S. workers,” CareerBuilder spokesman Mike Erwin told CBS News. “It’s not just one salary range. It’s pretty much across the board, and it’s trending in the wrong direction.”

‘Moreover, just 46 percent said their debt was manageable, and 56 percent felt that they would always be in debt.’

‘And, as a separate MarketWatch article noted, millennials are even resorting to financing to pay for discretionary purchases like luxury sheets, Peloton exercise bikes, fancy blenders, guitars and music festival tickets.’

‘The housing industry is certainly not out of the woods, either. A Federal Housing Finance Agency stress test of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac found that the government-sponsored enterprises, which were completely taken over by the federal government during the last recession, could require up to a $100 billion taxpayer bailout in the event of another such “severely adverse scenario.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 18:31:30

‘could require up to a $100 billion taxpayer bailout in the event of another such “severely adverse scenario.”

This brings up a laughable set of facts. These two corporations had a combined $5 trillion in assets. They were supposedly “bailed-out” with a little over $200 billion. Now they are a much bigger share of the market and $100 billion will do.

$200 billion was nothing to these behemoths.

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Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-09-15 04:51:49

Americans’ Borrowing Hits Another Record. Time To Worry?
September 12, 2017 5:04 AM ET
Heard on Morning Edition
Chris Arnold
Shoppers look at appliances at a Sears store in Schaumburg, Ill. At nearly $13 trillion, consumer debt has topped the previous record set during the financial crisis.
Scott Olson/Getty Images

Americans owe more than ever before, with household debt hitting a record of nearly $13 trillion. And auto loans, home loans and credit card debt are all still on the rise, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

That has some economists saying the lessons of the bubble of borrowing in the run-up to the Great Recession have already been forgotten.

The last time borrowing hit a record, the country was in the throes of the financial crisis. That might sound ominous. But the economy is in much better shape now. Home loans — by far the biggest debt category — are made to people who can actually afford them. And much of the borrowing is arguably responsible.

Sasha Gallagher, who lives outside Richmond, Va., says she and her husband have had several major changes in their lives in the past year. They had a baby in February and recently bought a house. They’d spent their savings on a down payment. So they used a zero percent credit card offer to buy things they wanted for their new home: a washing machine, refrigerator and a riding lawn mower.

“We’re at roughly $6,000 and it will probably grow because at this point we’ve got appliances on there but we really haven’t furnished the home yet,” Gallagher says.

That might sound like quite the credit card buying spree. But, Gallagher says, “we’re still driving both of our old beat-up cars basically into the ground, because a house in a good school district is more important than a new car,” she says.

Comment by julie
2017-09-14 18:28:49

I just got back to this, but I’m curious Ben, why do you think I’m a troll?

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-09-14 18:35:06

I don’t know: shack flipper extraordinaire just happens to pop up on the housing bubble blog asking for completely off topic advice on child’s career choice?

اللعنة لك

Just in case you don’t speak Arabic:

Comment by palmetto
2017-09-14 18:37:58

Oh, man, that’s cold. Funny, but cold.

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2017-09-14 20:54:56

I think most people are absolutely sick of this house-flipping nonsense. It’s not based upon intelligent business, it’s greedy, dumb luck at the expense of people who need shelter.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-09-14 18:46:11


Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-09-14 18:50:36

Carmel, CA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY

Comment by jeff
2017-09-14 19:23:06

That’s no gruesome fanged ‘demon fish’, that’s the Man Made Climate Change Monster that has been hiding Global Warming in the Oceans.

Gruesome, fanged ‘demon fish’ washes up on Texas beach, sparking mystery

By James Rogers Published September 14, 2017 Fox News

The strange fanged ‘sea creature’ that washed up on a Texas beach in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey quickly went viral after images were posted on Twitter, but what is it?

Evidence Shows Global Heat May Be Hiding in Oceans

Published: November 30th, 2013
By Tim Radford, Climate News Network

Comment by palmetto
2017-09-14 19:40:49

That right there is one of the reasons I never go swimming in the Gulf. Along with the oil tar and corexit and all the other crappy stuff in it. The Gulf is the USA’s toilet bowl. Mexico’s, too, I guess.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-09-14 19:44:10

‘The falling prices will have a big impact on the economy,’ said Mr Triguboff.

Sounds like rents and purchase prices are headed down, which would benefit families struggling with unaffordable housing expenses. This should spark a long-term economic boom.

‘The big question is whether the government will allow prices and volumes to go down before they start helping. Australians could lose an enormous amount of wealth.’

I guess we are all entitled to hold out our hands and hope the government will fill them with helicopter drops of cash.

Comment by palmetto
2017-09-14 19:49:35

“Mr Triguboff.”

Any relation to Trigglypuff?

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-09-14 20:04:50

Ha! The same question crossed my mind…

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-09-14 20:25:51

How do you solve a problem like Korea?

Financial Times
North Korea nuclear tensions
North Korea fires missile over Japan
Launch comes on heels of Pyongyang threat to turn US into ‘ashes and darkness’
2 hours ago
by Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington, Robin Harding in Tokyo and Song Jung-a in Seoul

North Korea has fired a missile over Japan, escalating tensions again on the Korean peninsula after the UN Security Council imposed tough sanctions on Pyongyang.

The Pentagon said North Korea had launched what appeared to be an intermediate range ballistic missile from the vicinity of Pyongyang airport at 6.27am local time. Japan said the missile flew over Hokkaido, the northernmost Japanese island over which North Korea fired a missile last month, before landing in the Pacific Ocean.

“North Korea’s provocative missile launch represents the second time the people of Japan, a treaty ally of the United States, have been directly threatened in recent weeks,” said Rex Tillerson, US secretary of state. “These continued provocations only deepen North Korea’s diplomatic and economic isolation.”

Comment by butters
2017-09-14 20:54:46

Keep China happy, NoKo problems go away instantly.

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-09-14 21:06:27

A family friend of ours works at Lawrence Livermore. I never thought to ask him if his work involved bomb design.

Lawrence was a famous Berkeley science professor. I find it interesting that his work contributed to the development of the U.S. nuclear weapons program, which seems somewhat discordant with Berkeley’s reputation as a hot bed of liberal extremism.

Comment by GuillotineRenovator
2017-09-14 21:18:11

The hypocrisy of liberal extremists has never been more evident than now.

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Comment by tresho
2017-09-14 22:12:21

One of my cognitively discordant experiences was tenting out at the Juniper Campground of Bandelier National Monument in NM, just across the state highway from the fence around Los Alamos National Laboratory. The fence bore signs warning off intruders. During the daylight hours when most campers were exploring the canyon, there were occasional loud explosion sounds coming over the fence, what I could only hope were successful and safe experiments.

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Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-09-15 05:14:55


Comment by julie
2017-09-15 07:58:56

I finally posted on this blog after lurking for years because I see a bad thing just about to happen. I don’t want any X-ers or Millenials to buy houses right now. We are about to enter a deflationary environment. China is about to crash bad. We are not having babies here and with immigration damped down we are going into a HUGE recession. Stocks, Gold, Oil, and real estate are all going to go down at once. Save your money. Sock cash away. Maybe even somehow get it out of the country into some other currency (which I don’t know how to do, or where to put it) I did not mention flipping in order to brag but I want people to know that I have some insight into what’s about to happen. Position yourself to survive what is just about to happen!

Comment by rms
2017-09-15 18:40:48

“…I have some insight into what’s about to happen.”

All ears (eyes) over here… have at it!

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