At The Same Time, There’s A Shortage And Overabundance
A report from Mortgage Orb. “There’s been a lot of speculation in the mortgage industry lately about how hurricanes Harvey and Irma might effect delinquencies and defaults in Texas and Florida – not to mention mortgage originations and home sales. A high percentage of the homes in the area were already underwater in terms of loan-to-value. A report from ATTOM Data Solutions shows that the rate of foreclosure was on the rise in the Houston area before Harvey even hit. According to the firm’s Foreclosure Market Report, foreclosure starts in the Houston area had increased 28%, year over year, as of August. During that period, nearly 5,000 Houston-area homes started the foreclosure process, according to the report.”
“States that saw year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity in August included Alaska (up 100%); Wyoming (up 79%); DC (up 67%); Louisiana (up 59%); Vermont (up 12%); and Mississippi (up 9%). ‘The 14 percent month-over-month increase nationwide this August is more than twice the average six percent seasonal increase in August over the previous 10 years – the highest in fact since a 37 percent month-over-month increase in August 2007,’ says Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. ‘While this seasonal increase is certainly not enough to set off alarm bells nationwide, especially given that foreclosure activity was down annually for the 23rd consecutive month in August, there is cause for concern in a few local markets where foreclosure activity has consistently been trending higher on an annual basis this year.’”
The Star Tribune in Minnesota. “The market always slows at the end of summer, but there are some complications this year. The most important is the ongoing shortage of entry-level priced houses to satisfy demand. At the same time, there’s an overabundance of upper-bracket houses on the market. ‘The well-priced and staged homes may sell in days while homes that are not may languish on the market for 100-plus days,’ said Kath Hammerseng, president-elect of MAAR. She said that, despite some indications that sellers are in the driver’s seat, the market feels more balanced than the numbers suggest. ’Neither buyers nor sellers are getting everything they want.’”
From Fox 40 in California. “An economic slowdown could be on the horizon for the Sacramento region, according to a new economic report from Sacramento State. The report’s author, Sacramento State economy professor Sanjay Varshney, said the post-recession recovery could be entering its later stages. ‘If the data stays persistent, what I mean by that is if truly the weakness sets in, this might be the first signs of a recession down the road,’ Varshney said.”
“The most recent midyear report showed one critical industry slowing down in the Central Valley. ‘We saw the goods producing sector, the non-service sector, actually go negative,’ Varshney said. Also troubling, Varshney said construction jobs, one of the biggest drivers of the labor market in the region, for the first time in 7 years went negative. ‘When the construction sector goes negative for the first time in 7 years, it does get our attention,’ the professor said.”
The New York Post. “While a disgraced Nigerian oil-trading billionaire is on the run from authorities, his posh West 57th Street pad is back on the market — at the wholesale price of $39 million. Kola Aluko bought the sprawling 79th floor penthouse for $51.9 million in 2014 — but owed taxes and lenders. ‘The home was in foreclosure, but it is now being sold by a third party as an alternative to foreclosure,” said a source close to the property.”
“‘MOTIVATED SELLER!!!’ notes the listing. ‘A once in a lifetime investment opportunity to purchase the last remaining full floor residence at Manhattan’s New Crown Jewel, One 57 Condominium, for a great value!’”
“Aluko, who is under investigation for alleged money-laundering crimes in Nigeria and Europe, couldn’t be reached for comment. A Nigerian court tried to freeze his assets, including the penthouse, in 2014 — but couldn’t find him to serve papers. While One57 is home to the city’s first and only $100 million condo sale, it never sold out.”
“This is the second financially troubled unit in the building to have been slated for foreclosure. As global law enforcement catches up with more folks from foreign countries who allegedly laundered their ill-gotten gains by scooping up homes for cash in New York City trophy buildings, more foreclosures may be on the way, real-estate experts tell the Post.”
From 6sqft in New York. “New Yorkers know that taking on a mortgage in the city is no easy feat. But a recent map shows that, compared to the rest of the country, we’ll spend many more years than most everyone else (except San Franciscans) in our attempts to pay it off. This map, which measures ‘mortgage magnitude,’ looked at the median local income and median local home value to show the relative affordability of property in each US county. The value of the average property was then expressed in the number of years salary it costs.”
“In some counties, a house will only set you back a total of one year’s pay. But as you move out toward coastal cities like New York, that number gets dramatically higher. The income to housing ratio starts to get pricer in Hawaii, much of California, the scenic portions of Colorado, and some metropolitan counties in the east. Buying here will take between six and eight years.”
“Now we’re hitting the ten year mark—homes that will take a full decade of income to pull off. Many areas of coastal California, including Los Angeles, as well as the island of Nantucket are included here. And New York City makes its first appearance, with the inclusion of Queens County. ‘Many of the scattered counties are characterized by costly vacation homes far out of reach of the resident population,’ according to the mapper.”
“Here’s the moment New Yorkers on the hunt for an affordable home have dreaded—we have now surpassed the 1:10 ratio of mortgage magnitude, the end of the line. The median home in these counties costs up to 13 solid years of income, and the counties that comprise New York City make this list. New York is joined by its expensive west coast counterpart, San Francisco County. The other places that these two insanely expensive cities? San Juan, Washington, Teton County, Wyoming (comprised of Jackson Hole and much of Yellowstone), and Dukes County, Massachusetts, aka the island of Martha’s Vineyard.”
‘As global law enforcement catches up with more folks from foreign countries who allegedly laundered their ill-gotten gains by scooping up homes for cash in New York City trophy buildings, more foreclosures may be on the way, real-estate experts tell the Post’
If they paid cash there wouldn’t be any foreclosures.
Unless those foreclosures are for non-payment of property taxes or HOA fees. But you can’t expect that kind of distinction from the New York Post (the Times is a little better).
Except the Times didn’t report it at all.
‘but owed taxes and lenders’
Sorry, I meant to say that the Times has better journalism in general.
“but owed taxes and lenders” refers only to the Aluko case. He may have had a mortgage. The article then goes on to describe other foreclosures; those are the ones probably bought with cash. Or maybe the airboxes were seized and foreclosed because they had been put up as collateral for other loans. Oh well, I admit I don’t know much about how the rich hide money.
“If they paid cash there wouldn’t be any foreclosures.”
Seems pretty simple to understand.
A joke that writes itself …
The New York Times: All the news that’s fit to print.
Published by communists for communists.
‘the rate of foreclosure was on the rise in the Houston area before Harvey even hit…foreclosure starts in the Houston area had increased 28%, year over year, as of August. During that period, nearly 5,000 Houston-area homes started the foreclosure process’
‘States that saw year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity in August included Alaska (up 100%); Wyoming (up 79%); DC (up 67%); Louisiana (up 59%); Vermont (up 12%); and Mississippi (up 9%). ‘The 14 percent month-over-month increase nationwide this August is more than twice the average six percent seasonal increase in August over the previous 10 years – the highest in fact since a 37 percent month-over-month increase in August 2007′
I got this report from Attom in an email. So I waited to see who picked it up. Then I searched for it. Mortgage Orb was the only one I could find. No New York Times nor Washington Post. The media can give us an hour by hour account of how windy it is in Houston, but not bother that 5,000 houses went into foreclosure in one month prior to the storm.
More from their email:
‘35 of 217 metro areas analyzed for the report (16 percent) posted a year-over-year increase in overall foreclosure activity (including both foreclosure starts and foreclosure completions), counter to the national trend, including Houston, Texas (up 44 percent); (up Cleveland, Ohio (up 48 percent); Columbia, South Carolina (up 23 percent); New Orleans, Louisiana (up 20 percent); Hartford, Connecticut (up 9 percent); and Baton Rouge, Louisiana (up 52 percent).’
‘145 of the 217 metro areas (67 percent) posted a month-over-month increase in foreclosure activity, including Phoenix, Arizona (up 98 percent); San Francisco, California (up 62 percent); Detroit, Michigan (up 39 percent); Riverside-San Bernardino, California (up 29 percent); and Chicago, Illinois (up 26 percent).’
Nice research Ben….Interesting…Thx..
Mortgage defaults up up up!
Nothing like being figuratively and literally underwater at the very same time!
https://tinyurl.com/yaum9nyg
Not sure that report that they note is publicly available. Notable language from an ATTOM release:
“ATTOM Data Solutions also powers consumer websites designed to promote real estate transparency: RealtyTrac.com is a property search and research portal for foreclosures and other off-market properties; Homefacts.com is a neighborhood research portal providing hyperlocal risks and amenities information; HomeDisclosure.com produces detailed property pre-diligence reports.”
If you go to RealtyTrac, and look for foreclosure data, it links back to ATTOM:
https://www.attomdata.com/news/category/foreclosure-trends/
The last thing they have publicly reported is from July for the first 6 months–which also shows increasing foreclosures in Houston:
https://www.attomdata.com/news/heat-maps/midyear-2017-u-s-foreclosure-market-report/
It’s great truthful info regarding the disastrous state of housing.
Except when I quoted data from RealtyTrac in the past, I was criticized as posting data from a RE shill.
No. You were criticized for being an RE shill.
I, for one, appreciate the perspective that RW brings, as someone working close to the industry.
Monterey, CA Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/monterey-ca/market-trends/
what rate (discount) would a 2005 may Las Vegas 30 yr fetch?
like a fine wine
the fed selling bonds will be mixed w treasuries 90/10 80/20
some mix that doesn’t embarrass anyone
2banana’s Rule:
Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh*t army = ruin, misery and bankruptcy.
They will raise your property taxes to infinity before they touch one golden public union pension. Get out now.
++++++
Illinois’ unpaid bill backlog hits a record $16 billion
Reuters - 9/20/2017
Illinois’ pile of unpaid bills topped $16 billion for the first time as the state deals with the fallout of an unprecedented two straight fiscal years without complete budgets, the state comptroller’s office reported on Tuesday.
“What is going to take this backlog down is the borrowing,” said Abdon Pallasch, spokesman for Democratic state Comptroller Susana Mendoza.
A provision in the budget enacted by lawmakers over the vetoes of Governor Bruce Rauner authorized the sale of up to $6 billion of general obligation bonds to pay bills from vendors and service providers that are accruing late payment penalties of as much as 12 percent.
But on Monday, the governor told reporters that the bonds do not solve any problem because lawmakers failed to set aside money to make principal and interest payments over the 12 years the debt would be outstanding.
“We need to come up with roughly half a billion (dollars) of cuts just to be able to service a bond offering,” he said, adding that he planned to meet with legislative leaders for discussion.
Illinois, which has the lowest credit ratings among the 50 states, evaded downgrades to junk with the budget enactment.
either states/counties raise their retirement ages to 66( age 55 here) or everyone is boned.
IL tried the age 45 pension clawback and a judge stopped it. That was the states death warrant.
That was just a symptom of the disease.
Public unions are the largest political campaign donors of all time. They expect payback (from mostly democrats) for their support.
It worked to keep democrats in power for 50+ years.
The state’s death warrant was the JFK executive order allowing for public unions + long term democrat rule
+++
“IL tried the age 45 pension clawback and a judge stopped it.”
2B -
That is exactly why I vacated that flea bitten cess pool of a state.
And if any of youse want to laugh dial into AM 560 in Chicago on the interwebs in the morning and listen to a guy named Dan Proft - every friggin day there is some new story about corruption in ILLANNOY - if it weren’t so bad one would have to laugh instead of cry.
I am convinced that nothing good comes out of Chicago.
Have a spectacular day - it certainly is here in Colorado.
“I am convinced that nothing good comes out of Chicago.”
You don’t know the old joke?
Q: What’s the best thing to come out of Chicago?
A: I-80.
What you see there is a manifestation of the Fed-induced dry cleaner effect. Pension liability is very pricey when valued using a discount rate near the zero bound.
The pension math also doesn’t work when you pay into the system based on how much you make each year, but get paid out based on the highest three years (PLUS your accrued vacation!).
That’s not actually a game breaker. Actuarial mathematics is able to project to the highest three years of earnings and back out a contribution rate sufficient to fund it.
Of course if yields are indefinitely suppressed to levels which don’t support projected investment gains, all bets are off.
I agree with your comment on yield being the biggie (80%+ of the problem).
“Actuarial mathematics is able to project to the highest three years of earnings and back out a contribution rate sufficient to fund it.”
However, I seriously doubt that the actuarial math took into consideration people selling back 6-months of vacation to be included in their “high three”, nor did it likely take into consideration that everyone was going to get a chance as “office manager” (getting higher salary for a few years before retirement).
discount rate near the zero bound”
well they can always pensions invest in real estate
It will end in bankruptcy, a worthless dollar and a much lower of standard of living for nearly all Americans.
And that will lead to war and/or a change of the FORM of government we have now.
++++++++
The Awful Future that Looms for a Majority of Today’s Americans
Steve McCann - September 20, 2017 - American Thinker
When it comes to the future, an overwhelming majority of Americans have adopted a mindset that is a variation of Isiah 22:12: “Let us eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow does not matter.” Recently, federal debt surpassed the $20 Trillion mark (additional state and local debt amount to another $2.9 Trillion). That milestone was greeted by the Ruling Class and a vast preponderance of the citizenry with a yawn and a shrug of the shoulder. As the ongoing determination to promote new entitlement spending and the refusal to rein in, but instead to expand, existing programs continues unabated.
By 2048 the overall government debt (Federal, State and local may well exceed $68 Trillion as compared to $23 Trillion today. Thus, the interest costs will increase fivefold, as not only does the debt swell, but the United States will have to appeal to lenders willing to underwrite a nearly bankrupt nation. Today this country, with 5% of the world’s population, accounts for over 32% of Global debt, but by 2048 it will account for 49% of Global debt. In essence, America will be at the mercy of the rest of the world and a second-tier economy.
The tsunami that will inundate this nation is inevitable as there is no willingness, regardless of party, to confront these issues.
The Democrats and their mind-numbed followers, now fully wedded to socialism, have convinced each other, and unfortunately much of the citizenry, that there is a bottomless pit of money to be siphoned from the so-called rich and the golden goose that is Capitalism, the engine of the nation’s GDP, will continue in perpetuity to lay the gold eggs regardless of any abuse or restraint. The one-time confiscation of the wealth of all the billionaires in the U.S. would amount to $2.2 Trillion (less than 31% of all government spending in 2017).
So the Democrats want socialism and capitalism at the same time according to this guy?
The one-time confiscation of the wealth of all the billionaires in the U.S. would amount to $2.2 Trillion (less than 31% of all government spending in 2017).
Gee, that’s a fascinating statistic to keep in mind in case this is ever suggested. What it would it be if all of the fortunes worth half a billion are included?
American Thinker - LOL
I’m tired of this BS argument.
Taxing the very rich out of existence is taxing the end product, not the underlying cause. Say a CEO moves $10 million worth of salaried jobs out the country. He makes $1 million more in profit because of it. By the time you tax that $1 million in profit, it’s too late. It’s better to bring that $10M of jobs back, by some means or another.
A border adjustment tax would fix the scenario you describe above. Bottom line: corporations need to be taxed based on a % of where sales are derived. This gets rid of Apple transferring all their profits to Ireland as “intellectual property.”
“So the Democrats want socialism and capitalism at the same time according to this guy?”
No, they want the benefits of a free market (strong growth) with an authoritarian government.
I once heard Bill Clinton speak–I think at one of Scaramucci’s SALT conference–I’m paraphrasing:
“There aren’t enough rich to tax [to solve the entitlement issues in the US]”
Those who are being honest with the math can very easily see that the level of entitlement spending needs to come down. We can’t just spend our way to prosperity.
I can agree with this. We’re about to have a debate about tax reform and I think we need to conclude that taxing capital at a lower rate than labor is not optimal. There is no reason why capital gains taxes rates should be lower than marginal tax rates for income.
There is no reason why capital gains taxes rates should be lower than marginal tax rates for income.
Yes there is.
With capital gains, you are being taxed on NOMINAL gains, not real ones.
If you invested $100 ten years ago, and sold the stock for $120 today, did you make anything? The government says you did and you are taxed on it. Logic says you didn’t.
I completely agree with taxing cap gains and ordinary income at the same rate…as long as basis in your investments is indexed to inflation.
The lower standard of living has arrived, masked by the hyper-increase in household debt to pay for things which people can no longer afford.
Absolutely. Also the rise of the side gig economy where people rent out their debt-ladened assets and free time for sub-minimum wage.
Wanna know why you can’t afford a house and the property taxes?
+++++++
Omaha Police sergeant retires after being accused of leaving his fecal matter out in the open
Omaha World-Herald | September 19, 2017 | Todd Cooper and Kevin Cole
The head of the Omaha police unit in charge of bomb detonation has retired after fecal matter was found at the Omaha Public Safety Training Center.
Omaha Police Sgt. Matthew Manhart, who oversaw the department’s bomb response unit, had been accused of depositing his own fecal matter where a manager at the training center would find it, according to three sources with knowledge of Manhart’s departure.
Reports varied on exactly where it was left, but it was in the open and not in a toilet, the sources said.
Manhart, 49, retired recently, the sources said. That makes him eligible to collect all of his retirement benefits, including unused vacation and sick leave.
Wanna know why you can’t afford a house and the property taxes?
+++++++
Omaha Police sergeant retires after being accused of leaving his fecal matter out in the open
That’s not the answer.
Yeah….Omaha’s finest…
‘The income to housing ratio starts to get pricer in Hawaii, much of California, the scenic portions of Colorado, and some metropolitan counties in the east. Buying here will take between six and eight years.’
‘Now we’re hitting the ten year mark—homes that will take a full decade of income to pull off. Many areas of coastal California, including Los Angeles, as well as the island of Nantucket are included here. And New York City makes its first appearance, with the inclusion of Queens County.’
Funny how almost no one talks about this measurement anymore. I think the long term average is 2.5 or 3.
was 2.5 when I bought and the rent ratio was about 130 -now 200 months in my hood
And as rents fall and asking prices for housing inflates, housing demand collapses.
Agree that this ratio too often gets ignored in mainstream media coverage of the housing market. It’s crazy that lenders let people buy as much as 5x their annual income in housing. I can’t imagine borrowing that much and not feeling house-rich/cash-poor! Sadly, only homes priced at that ratio would meet my requirements in a neighborhood I like, which is why I rent
IIUC, the x income ratio is just a quick and dirty approximation of 28% debt service to gross income. The x that keeps housing debt at acceptable levels depends on interest rates. 2x income at ~10%, 2.5x income at ~7%, or 3x income at ~4%… will all give roughly the same PITI, all at ~25-28% gross income.
Of course, now that Mel Watt and CFPB are okay with 45% DTI (50% if you include that funky program which counts non-relatives), the x income is a farce.
u need a spanking
“how many years of life a house costs…”
They fail to mention that 10 years of income is probably 30 or 40 years of “life”, just to buy the house. Nothing left for food.
😁
who has the cleanest balance sheet to add a sh@tload of more debt to in the next crisis?
The Fed can clean anything. If this were a movie the Fed would be played by Harvey Keitel.
The Fed only cleans the bank vaults of its member banks, with your money. If you make a bad investment, the Fed does not clean this up for you. It only cleans the bank ledger.
The bank can then lend again and collect interest. Your money. What is this, 25% of our “economy”?
Even 5x income is probably 30-40 years of life. These people must be putting NOTHING away for retirement.
So wages haven’t kept up with asset prices.. true this has been going on most of my working life, 30 years, and when you throw in medical insurance it just gets worse. We have gotten used to it.
Weltschmerz word for the day
‘The most recent midyear report showed one critical industry slowing down in the Central Valley. ‘We saw the goods producing sector, the non-service sector, actually go negative,’ Varshney said.’
It’s a good thing the central bank has been raising interest rates so they can cut them and save jingles biscuits.
‘Also troubling, Varshney said construction jobs, one of the biggest drivers of the labor market in the region, for the first time in 7 years went negative. ‘When the construction sector goes negative for the first time in 7 years, it does get our attention,’ the professor said’
Wa? But, worker shortage? If people are losing their jobs, how are we gonna build our way to lower prices?
Well I hope you enjoyed your boom California, we all know what comes next.
Not going to give it away
We thought equity loans were “free money”
Cries from the “victims”
Demands for a bailout
Articles of “we are trying to save our home”
Waiting for the “bank to work with us”
We didn’t know what we were signing
We “need more government programs”
Greedy banks!
It’s not fair!
Articles on how to walk away, short sales and jingle mail
And let us not forget:
“Suzanne said we can do this”
Now I’m kinda curious what the Suzanne’s commission was on that deal. I can see why she was motivated to reassure them that they could do it.
“jingle biscuits” LOLZ
“Is growing food wasting water” typical road sign along interstate 5 which runs North to South across Californians central valley.
It could also read is growing Almonds in a semi desert to ship to China a waste of water. Or Alfalfa.
Remember….. If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, you can’t afford it or is it affordable.
Realtors are liars.
….. and every closing a crime scene.
Apt 401 et al in CO…..
Got TABOR????
“HOLD ONTO YOUR WALLET! Kennedy Promises To Raise Taxes If Elected
Posted on September 18, 2017 by ColoradoPeakPolitics
Cary Kennedy made a campaign swing through Durango promising rainbow-farting puppies and polka dot unicorns for everyone if she is elected.
How will she make the magic happen? By raising taxes of course. Didn’t we mention she was a Democrat?
She told the Durango Herald that a top priority is to “reform” the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights and eliminate those pesky limits on government taxing and spending.
“We need to stop digging, and denying us the revenue we need to keep up with growth,” Kennedy said during a meeting with The Durango Herald editorial board.
Translation: Greedy Coloradans who work hard for a living and pay their taxes must give Democrats more of their money because politicians know better how to spend it, and spending is the only way they know how to get reelected.
If only we could fit that on a bumper sticker for Kennedy.”
“denying us the revenue…”
It’s like you owe them more of your money. It never stops.
A question I like ask liberals/progressives and never get a straight answer.
“At why point between zero and 100% taxation does one become a slave?”
She told the Durango Herald that a top priority is to “reform” the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights
Good luck with that.
It is truly remarkable what a politician will do to get re-elected.
I’m watching the Ken Burns Vietnam documentary. Taxation is nothing - they’ll feed people into a blender if it helps them stay in office.
“… they’ll feed people into a blender if it helps them stay in office.”
IMO this approach needs to be modified; People should first be drained of all of their possessions THEN they should be fed into the blender.
A life is a terrible thing to waste.
“A life is a terrible thing to waste.’
Especially a young life. Many years of potential exploitation goes down the drain when a young life is snuffed out.
we need another clean balance sheet to throw some debt onto.
Quincy, WA Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/quincy-wa/home-values/
your wealth is going backwards
As soon as the stock market goes down a little bit the FED will back pedal and do more QE, thus adding more assets to their balance sheet.
Dont you just love rigged markets?
HousingHens and DebtDonkeys.
Did you find yourself long Bitcoin at the moment the Fed emphatically announced that they really, sincerely, honestly do intend to normalize rates this time around?
FINANCIAL TIMES
The QE retreat
Dollar gains as Fed sticks with tightening plan
US currency finds some support as central bank signals intention to raise rates further
4 hours ago
by Robin Wigglesworth, Joe Rennison and Eric Platt in New York
Federal Reserve stimulus era ends
The dollar held near its highest level of the month on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve’s historic decision to throw its crisis-era stimulus programme into reverse from next month and stick with plans for further rate rises.
The US central bank said on Wednesday that it would begin to trim its balance sheet and indicated it was likely to lift interest rates again in December. Projections for rates this year and next — the so-called dot plot of officials’ forecasts — remained basically unchanged.
“It’s a strong indication that they want to renormalise monetary policy and are willing to look past low inflation,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Standish Mellon Asset Management.
…
I hadn’t realized that Bitcoin had split in August until I read that it is about to split a third time. So much for the hoax of limited supply.
I can’t think of a more stupid thing ever, except maybe for my first marriage.
Marriage happens, for better or for worse.
Splitting a stock/security doesn’t really add supply in a way that punishes those that hold the stock/security.
So what, if BTC splits? If you own 1 BTC, now you have 2–each valued at 50% of the original. Big deal.
That’s not the same thing as if there was a BTC Fed that simply adds 1 Trillion new BTC to the market with a push of a button.
In other words, cutting tulip bulbs in half doesn’t increase the total supply of tulip bulbs. It simply chops the same number of tulip bulbs into smaller pieces.
Potomac Falls, VA Housing Prices Crater 25% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/potomac-falls-va/market-trends/
prices for all of NOVA were up 5% yoy last month
per nvar.org
just sayin
“….an economic slowdown could be on the horizon for Sacramento…..”
Comment by Professor Bear
2015-12-18 08:08:37
I predict your house will be worth less in five years than it is today, even according to Zillow. Note: Zillow Value on Dec. 1, 2015 = $701,000
Update today 9/21/2017: PB may be correct. Current Zillow value = $688,906. I would have bet a few dollars the value would be higher……well, I guess I did! Way to go PB, your on track to be correct in your forecast.
Remember…… You can ask $50k for your run down 10 year old Honda Civic but where is the buyer at that price?
So it is with all depreciating assets like houses.
Love the transparency, Jingle.
How goes your effort to thin your herd of houses? Will you accelerate the pace if it looks like things are trending downward?
We sold one house last week (paid $285,000 in 2009, sold at $450,000 in 2017). We had it rented for all but 11 days to 3 different tenants during the last 8 years. The last tenant vacated May 15th. We did a lot of work and listed it for sale July 1. It went under contract on July 14th, but took 64 days to close (vs 30 listed in the offer.) The big hold up was the lender and a host of ridiculous conditions. The buyers put $150,000 down, so the lender problems were not expected. That seems to be the normal course these days.
I have another one on the market now and will be adding a third property in October. We want move to San Diego in 2018 or 2019.
It really doesn’t make a lot of sense to sell these houses, because the cash flow is substantial (12%+ on equity) and it will be impossible to replace. The tax man will take about 25% of the gain ($300k on $1.2M) with the recapture and cap gain taxes.
However, that is why we invested the money and worked so hard to make these deals…..so we could be independent and live where we want. It looks like that will happen now.
Nicely done! This is quite impressive.
Thank you. I remember HA telling me what a fool I was and that I would never find a buyer. HA could not be more wrong, which is why I make it a point to post the details here. Investing in real estate at or near the cycle bottom has been a life changing event for our family.
And what did you buy it for back in 2011 ? Sorry I forget the date.
You bought a few I think. 700K in Sacramento or in Folsom I think it was? Must be a big house for 700K or maybe not I looked in Davis CA and was surprised at the prices.
Oct. 2010. Paid $385,000 to B of A
It was more a matter of luck than prediction skill.
Footnote: Wifey mentioned in passing yesterday that the San Diego median sale price dipped last month, which seems unusual for August.
It may be luck to buy at precisely the bottom, but it wasn’t hard to look at the long term inflation-adjusted data (adjusting for Boskins to get to apples/apples CPI) from Shiller to see that we were below the long-term trendline in 2011, and potentially nearing or at a trough.
Shiller=garbage in garbage out but he knows it like we all do. 2011 prices were still 250% higher than inflation adjusted long term trend.
Condo listings in 92101 (Marina) have gone from 225 in May to 250 in September. They have been hovering at 200-225 for years, so there is a bump in condo inventory.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-21/corporate-america-has-amassed-a-record-amount-of-cash
I wonder how they account for debt that companies have borrowed against this cash to avoid bringing it back to the US (and paying tax on it).
I’m sure lots of Apple’s cash is included here…but do they offset this by the massive amount of debt that Apple has accumulated to pay dividends?