So The Boom Has Ended, Or It’s Ending Right Now?
A report from McKnight Senior Living. “An overabundance of unoccupied independent living, assisted living and memory care units means that billions of dollars in capital is not earning returns in the marketplace, Larry Rouvelas, principal of Senior Housing Analytics, and Kurt Read, principal of RSF Partners, told those attending the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care Fall Conference in Chicago. Between independent living, assisted living and memory care, almost $20 billion in capital is not earning returns, they said. The growth of memory care communities has been an ‘impressive’ 44% over the past five years, going from 67,000 to 96,000 units, and more growth is coming, Rouvelas said.”
“But the number of vacant units increased during that time, too, from 8,000 to 18,000, he said., and 11,300 units are under construction. ‘If nothing else were built starting tomorrow … it would take over three years to fill up those units to 93% occupancy,’ Rouvelas said. ‘That’s about $3.6 billion of capital that’s getting a 0% return,’ Read pointed out. ‘That’s a sobering fact.’”
“The story is similar in assisted living and independent living, Rouvelas said. In assisted living, occupied units are up 13% in five years. It would take five years for the sector to hit 93% occupancy, however, Rouvelas said. ‘The number of empty units has grown, too,’ to 45,000, he said, and 20,000 units are under construction. ‘That’s over $9 billion of capital that’s not getting returns,’ Read said. In independent living, recent absorption has been 6,400 annually in the past two years, Rouvelas said. ‘There are 36,000 empty independent living units, with 17,000 more under construction,’ Rouvelas said. ‘And that would be about $7.2 billion in private capital in the industry,’ he said.”
The Daily Northwestern in Illinois. “The Park Evanston apartment building is being placed on the market in an effort to renovate the facilities, a move that could increase residents’ rents, said Ald. Donald Wilson (4th). The 24-story building, 1630 Chicago Ave., sits among many Evanston businesses and restaurants, including a Whole Foods. It also houses numerous Northwestern students who live off-campus.”
“Wilson said the increase in the number of proposals for mixed-use towers in Evanston is ‘reflective of the economic recovery in the county.’ However, NU’s new two-year live-in requirement coupled with an increase in the supply of rental units might weaken the market, Wilson said. ‘We have to be careful because we don’t want to put ourselves in the situation where you have a glut of properties,’ he said. ‘One wonders at what point the supply is going to overtake the market.’”
From LA Weekly in California. “The onetime magnet for the homeless has become, in the span of 10 years, a magnet for the young and wealthy, with median two-bedroom rents reaching $3,350 last year. Buoyed by South Park, the Old Bank District, and the Arts District, DTLA has become Venice East. But there’s been some grumbling that the dream downtown could be crumbling. Amid continued high rents regionwide, one of the hottest communities in the city for the young and prosperous has seen lease rates, in the assessment of Crystal Chen, marketing manager at rental listings site Zumper, flatten out.”
“Builders are responding with deals, including, in some cases, first-month-free leases and parking concessions, experts say. ‘The sheer amount of new apartments being built all at once and hitting the market all at once has caused a supply and demand issue,’ says CoStar senior market analyst Stephen Basham. Rents are being depressed as a result, he argues. ‘All of these buildings target wealthy renters, people making $80,000, $90,000 $100,000 a year and up,’ he says. ‘There’s only so many of those people out there.’”
“Indeed, Chen of Zumper says there has been a ‘lost of interest in the luxury housing market’ that’s also being seen in parts of San Francisco. It ‘leads to these expensive apartment buildings offering concessions like a month of free rent, cheaper security deposit, or a free parking spot,’ she says.”
“‘Developers, I think, are going to have to look at their pricing at some point,’ says downtown real estate agent Bill Cooper. ‘Every time you turn around a new building is opening and putting 500 to 1,000 new units on the market. We’re running out of people who can spend $4,000 a month on an 800-square-foot apartment. It’s not sustainable.’”
From San Francisco Curbed in California. “A long, hot summer has given way to a slightly cooler fall in San Francisco. Not in terms of weather but when it comes to the rental market. At least according to Zumper, which released its quarterly rent map displaying the median price of a single-bedroom apartment in San Francisco neighborhoods. A comparison to the same Zumper map from this time last year reveals that prices in each of the hot neighborhoods crept down from 2016. In fact, prices are down year over year in almost every neighborhood.”
From CBS Pittsburg in Pennsylvania. “For years now, cranes and construction crews have filled the skies of Pittsburgh as huge luxury apartment buildings have shot up in just about every city neighborhood. Places like Bakery Square in East Liberty, which have enticed scores of young professionals and tech workers to pay upwards of $1,500 a month on a single-bedroom apartment by providing services and amenities like a health club, a concierge and free Starbucks in the lobby.”
“Since 2012, more than 5,000 luxury apartment units have been built in the city. But after five years or torrid growth, the luxury apartment boom seems to have played out its string. ‘The supply has now outpaced the demand,’ said real estate expert Paul Griffith.”
“Experts like Griffith, of Integra Realty Resources, says there are now more units than new renters, and while some 1,300 more apartments are slated for construction next year, that should be the end of it. KDKA’s Andy Sheehan: ‘So the boom has ended, or it’s ending right now?’ Griffith: ‘I would agree with that. By the middle of next year, 2018, those units that are under construction will be complete and we’d expect to see a significant slow down at that point.’”
From KXAN in Texas. “A series of construction delays at an apartment complex is forcing hundreds of college students to jump from couch to couch or hotel to hotel. The residents were supposed to move into Pointe San Marcos apartments in August, but now they are being told they have to wait until the middle of October. Brianda Ramirez signed a lease with Pointe apartments earlier this year. The apartment is labeled as a luxury apartment building, with a resort-style pool and ‘the most over the top amenities.’”
“‘I’m living out of my car; I don’t know where most of my stuff is because it’s just been everywhere,’ Ramirez said. ‘I’m having to borrow things from people and having to ask if I can sleep at their apartment.’ KXAN did speak with Pointe apartments General Manager Mikkel Lopez who said he had no comment on the matter and referred us to corporate. We have yet to hear back from their corporate office.”
From Bloomberg on New York. “The asking price to rent a Manhattan apartment owned by Ivanka Trump has dropped by 30 percent since her father was elected president. The two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo at 502 Park Ave. was listed at $15,000 a month in November, according to StreetEasy. In February, it dropped to $13,000. The asking rent on Tuesday was $10,450, the website shows.”
“It seems that even the first daughter isn’t immune to pressures on Manhattan’s rental market, which is suffering from an oversupply. There were 7,497 apartments listed for rent in the borough at the end of August, 31 percent more than the monthly average going back to 2008, according to appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate.”
‘Between independent living, assisted living and memory care, almost $20 billion in capital is not earning returns’
And thousands more under construction. Just like the apartments and condos. Sounds like somebody isn’t going to be retiring when they thought.
BTW, this is yet another example of artificially low interest rates and QE causing deflation. It’s everywhere: retail, hotels, oil fields. Anything with yield has or is being oversupplied.
As an RN, I have some insight into this. My father also owns several assisted living facilities. A lot of the fate of the industry rests on the healthcare debate. What is indisputable is that there is an oversupply, but it is dramatically worse in some places than others. The ideal for a taxpayer perspective is for aging residents to stay at home. Indeed, that is where the policy is going. More home health RNs and aides, and fewer centralized living arrangements. Though lucrative for shareholders and healthcare conglomerates, they are fiscally irresponsible.
They’re expensive beyond belief, especially the memory care units. My in laws spent their final years in a memory care unit, they had Alzheimers and dementia. It cost something like $6000 EACH per month . Fotunately my FIL had $15000 a month in pension income (he was a retired private sector executive) so they could afford it. It was a very nice place, but I don’t see how 80% of the population could pay for it.
A lot of people are expecting (or should I say hoping) that .gov will foot the bill.
Maybe the obesity epidemic will “solve” this problem.
It cost something like $6000 EACH per month ??
$9500. per month for my mother…She burned through a couple hundred thousand before she passed away…
Is this something the younger generation or app generation could jump in on? I mean, take a Toys R Us or Sears or Shopping Mall and turn it into an old people party place?
“…had $15000 a month in pension income…”
That was probably a $2-Million annuity deal.
I don’t know the exact amount, but my guess is that my uncle had a net worth north of $1 million early in his retirement years. By the time he and my aunt had progressed down the slippery slope of independent living to assisted living to skilled nursing care, over the course of a series of health crises, they died penniless. In some respects, those retirement communities can resemble dry cleaning operations!
Anybody with less than $10 million in retirement can easily burn through it all if cancer or some other expensive malady comes knocking.
“Anything with yield has or is being oversupplied.”
And the oversupply is quashing yields against the zero bound.
It’s exactly like textbook economics, except for the part about the man behind the curtain pulling the strings.
‘Between independent living, assisted living and memory care, almost $20 billion in capital is not earning returns’
Sounds like somebody needs to buy it all up and issue nursing-home-backed-securities and get the Fed to buy them all to keep a critical resource up and running. Then leave most of it empty and don’t drop prices at all.
Carl, thanks for my laugh if the day
If it seems like a supply glut now, just wait until after Baby Boomer die-off starts kicking into overdrive in a couple of years.
More than a couple of years. The last boomer won’t even reach age 70 until 2034.
Incorrect. That demographic is already dying off at an accelerated rate.
The last boomer won’t even reach age 70 until 2034.
The “last boomer” would be the trailing edge of the wave, not the leading edge. The leading edge of boomers hit age 70 last year.
So, “in a couple of years” might have been a slight exaggeration—but the point remains the same. What is the average life expectancy of that cohort?
I’d love to see a curve showing the distribution of boomer births during the boom… I’m sure it isn’t uniform across the date-rate. The peak of the birth wave plus the average life expectancy should be a good-enough guestimate as to the peak of their passing.
I think I’ve said it before here, but for good measure:
Someone needs to approve investments in these projects, and most of the time the person approving the investments is mainly focused on not getting fired….so, the things that they like to invest in are things that primarily have a good story that is easy to understand and assumed to be correct.
And demographics is a good one. Everyone can understand baby boomers aging–which puts senior housing at significant risk of over-investment.
The other big one is apartments…”people still need to live somewhere, and after the housing crash no one can buy a home”.
The best story gets the most capital.
Seattle, WA Rental Rates CRATER 14% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa-98109/home-values/
‘The Bay Area lost 4,700 jobs in the month of August, facing its worst monthly loss in the last seven years, while the East Bay gained 800 jobs, according to the California Employment Development Department. The Bay Area’s job losses are broadly felt, said Larry Rosenthal, senior lecturer at the Goldman School of Public Policy. He added that the employment areas that have been affected the most are healthcare, technology and retail.’
‘Regional planning lecturer Jason Luger said that companies such as Google are moving jobs out of the Bay Area in order to increase employment in a more affordable location. This results in the loss of mid-level technology jobs.’
“If you’re going to have an economic slowdown to a recession, it has to start somewhere,” said Rosenthal. “Having your eyes on these markets is really important to see these shifts.”
More layoffs happening in Santa Clara. There’s another one today. It seems that gutting your on premise biz is the rage these days.
It’s all cloud, cloud, cloud, baby!
I also heard something interesting: That many laid off H1-B’s are leaving for Canada. Carl, you hearing any of that?
Not hearing that specifically. I think my current niche of SSD testing is a little behind what’s going on with the big storage consumers. I heard that it’s much harder for our managers to get a full time req than a contractor these days though. So somebody up the chain must be trying to avoid getting caught by surprise with too many people.
The SillyValley labor market adjustment is likely to start with the H1-B swath of the workforce, before eventually landing on bawn-and-bred Muricans.
Realtors are liars.
Some things never change.
Their gains are ill-gotten.
‘NU’s new two-year live-in requirement coupled with an increase in the supply of rental units might weaken the market, Wilson said. ‘We have to be careful because we don’t want to put ourselves in the situation where you have a glut of properties,’ he said. ‘One wonders at what point the supply is going to overtake the market.’
Ask your regional planning lecturer. A few months back I posted a quote from an apartment developer saying, “lenders will pull back and stop us from going too far.” Nope.
We have to be careful because we don’t want to put ourselves in the situation where you have a glut of properties
Heaven forbid…
MortgageMonkeys are malicious.
No money for bridges or electric grid upgrades or fixing roads or fixing schools or keeping cities, counties and states out of bankruptcy…
+++++
Record $135 billion a year for illegal immigration, average $8,075 each, $25,000 in NY
The Washington Examiner | Sept 27, 2017 | Paul Bedard
The swelling population of illegal immigrants and their kids is costing American taxpayers $135 billion a year, the highest ever, driven by free medical care, education and a huge law enforcement bill, according to the the most authoritative report on the issue yet.
And despite claims from pro-illegal immigration advocates that the aliens pay significant off-setting taxes back to federal, state and local treasuries, the Federation for American Immigration Reform report tallied just $19 billion, making the final hit to taxpayers about $116 billion.
State and local governments are getting ravaged by the costs, at over $88 billion. The federal government, by comparison, is getting off easy at $45 billion in costs for illegals.
Elections have consequences.
There is a difference.
God Bless DJT.
The health care bubble needs to pop. One of many.
++++++
Trump readies executive order that will let consumers cross state lines to buy health insurance
American Thinker | 09/28/2017 | Rick Moran
Donald Trump is preparing an executive order that would achieve a long standing goal of insurance reform advocates.
The president’s executive order will reportedly allow individuals to join group plans from out of state. Current law allows companies to sell across state lines but due to red tape and resistance by state insurance officials, most companies refuse to take advantage of the opportunity. The order would allow consumers to join associations and group health plans located in other states.
Health plans, regulators pan Trump’s plan to allow purchase of insurance across state lines
The idea has failed in several states where it’s been tried.
By PAUL DEMKO and NOLAN D. MCCASKILL 09/27/2017 01:51 PM EDT Updated 09/27/2017 05:19 PM EDT
President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he will likely sign an executive order allowing Americans to purchase health care across state lines.
But the idea is broadly opposed by state insurance commissioners, consumer advocates and insurers, and has failed in states where it’s been tried.
“I’ll probably be signing a very major executive order where people can go out across state lines, do lots of things and buy their own health care, and that will be probably signed next week,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday afternoon. “It’s being finished now. It’s gonna cover a lot of territory and a lot of people — millions of people.”
Trump’s remarks revived a theme from his presidential campaign and came a day after the collapse of Senate Republicans’ efforts to repeal Obamacare with a simple majority.
Trump didn’t elaborate on how he would allow insurance to be sold across state lines. But most insurance experts find it hard to imagine how an executive order could supplant existing state regulations, and believe such a move would likely spark a legal challenge.
“Health insurers already have the ability to sell insurance in multiple states as long as they comply with state consumer protection and licensing laws, which many already do,” said Mike Consedine, CEO of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, in a statement to POLITICO. “The NAIC has long been opposed to any attempt to reduce or preempt state authority or weaken consumer protections.”
Several states — including Wyoming, Maine and Georgia — have already tried allowing across-state sales, and it’s been a colossal bust. The chief reason: There’s been zero interest from insurers. That’s in part because creating competitive provider networks in states where they don’t have any current customers is incredibly difficult.
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/27/trump-executive-order-health-care-state-lines-243213
Maybe Wal*Mart or Amazon could enter the market.
Mike, what day of the month does your check from the Open Society Foundation arrive for posting this stuff?
Bushnell, FL Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/bushnell-fl/market-trends/
I can’t believe the scope of this problem.
Indeed. Housing prices inflated 400% higher than long term trend in every town and city across the globe. There is only one solution to the problem……. Falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels accelerating the economy and creating jobs like only falling prices can.
Bushnell…scope…get it?
Now I do.
I do. But on the post, Bushnell has a population of around 2,000 and is the county seat of Sumter County, which is rural and in the middle of nowhere between Tampa and Gainesville. The town is not a viable commuting option for any major city in Florida. In fact, it’s probably best known for its National Cemetery and the Dairy Queen, now closed, which was right off the exit from I-75. If you drive around there, though, you’ll see glimpses of what “old Florida” used to look like.
The Villages is in that county too, about 40 miles to the east.
A small town between two cities. Just like every other small town in the US. And the other thing in common with every last town in the US is that housing prices are grossly inflated. That’s why prices are falling.
Elections have consequences.
There is a difference (could you possibly imagine this happening under Hillary?)
Why do democrats keep wanting to subsidize rich homeowners?
This ALONE will pop most bubble cities.
+++++++++
Here’s why Trump’s tax plan will hit Californians especially hard
LA Times | 9/28/17 | Jim Puzzanghera
The federal deduction for state and local taxes allowed Californians to reduce their taxable income by $101 billion in 2014, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Foundation.
The plan also left open the possibility of another big hit: new limits on the deduction for home mortgage interest, which would have a greater effect on states with higher housing costs, such as California and New York.
Homeowners now can deduct interest paid on as much as $1 million in mortgage debt. Some Republicans have been considering reducing the limit to $500,000. If that were to happen, about 489,000 filers in California would see an average increase of about $3,290 in their federal taxes, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.
Trump pitches tax plan as ‘once-in-a-generation opportunity.
About 44 million taxpayers claimed the deduction in 2014, including 6 million in California, according to the Tax Policy Center.
Republicans argue the deduction is an indirect subsidy to some state and local governments and largely shifts money from lower-income people in low-tax states to higher-income earners in high-tax states.
The Tax Foundation found that 88% of the benefit of the deduction in 2014 went to people with incomes of more than $100,000.
Californians received one-fifth of the total value of the deduction nationwide in 2014, the Tax Foundation said. And of the top 10 states for the deduction, including California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois and Texas.
While the possible trimming of the mortgage interest deduction would directly reduce the benefits of owning a home, the California Assn. of Realtors is also worried about eliminating the state and local tax deduction, which reduces the effective cost of property taxes.
Association President Geoff McIntosh said losing the tax deduction, along with a doubling of the standard deduction, would remove the incentives for home buying and hurt the state’s housing market. He predicted the average California home buyer could end up paying $3,000 more a year in taxes.
Trump’s State-Tax Plan Could Cause Headaches for 52 Republican Lawmakers
By Sahil Kapur
September 26, 2017, 1:00 AM MST
Ending $1.3 trillion break would hit Republicans by the dozens
New York’s King says he sees enough votes to keep deduction
President Donald Trump’s promised tax overhaul may force dozens of Republican congressmen in states including New York and New Jersey into a politically damaging vote to repeal a $1.3 trillion tax break their districts use heavily.
But not if Representative Peter King of New York can help it. King, a Republican who represents Long Island, said he’ll oppose any attempt to repeal the state and local tax deduction, calling it “absolutely essential to my district.”
King is one of 52 Republicans — more than enough to scuttle any bill that lacks Democratic support — who hail from districts that use the state tax deduction disproportionately. He thinks enough of those Republican colleagues will band together to keep its repeal out of any comprehensive tax legislation this fall, complicating GOP plans.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-26/trump-s-state-tax-plan-could-cause-headaches-for-52-republicans
Yeah Mike, you rally with the rich, white shack owners and protect your ridiculous tax write-offs and keep the poor and middle class burdened with the bill. Should make for some good ads in 2020.
I’m not rallying with anyone. If there are ads in 2018 or 2020, they should be about how Trump can’t get anything done because he can’t work with the Republicans in Congress.
‘I’m not rallying with anyone’
Yeah, I know. The real question is, what are you doing? You never take a position, really. We don’t know anything about you, where you live, rent or own a shack. You nitpick about this or that every day. Tell us what’s important or not. But when you get challenged on anything, you throw up your hands and say, I’m not that!
What’s going on here is the polar magnets of politics are revolving. It happens every few decades. And the rich, old, mostly white democrats are standing here protecting the globalist status quo, keep the poor down, make them and the middle class pay taxes so the rich don’t have to. And some of the rich white Republicans are helping them. Welcome to populism. Now lead, follow or get the heck out of the way.
‘I’m not rallying with anyone’
Yeah, I know. The real question is, what are you doing? You never take a position, really. We don’t know anything about you, where you live, rent or own a shack. You nitpick about this or that every day.
Simply stating preferences doesn’t make for interesting discussion. Presenting this Bloomberg article is not nitpicking. Some posters here assume that Trump will raise taxes on rich people by eliminating the SALT and MID deductions. This article indicates that that’s not likely because quite a few Republicans will refuse to go along with those proposals.
Also, eliminating the SALT deduction would raise taxes for some rich people. Though, of course, it would vary a lot by state, which is a strange thing to do if the president’s goal is to soak the rich. On the other hand, his plan includes proposals to eliminate the AMT and the estate tax. So wealthy Americans as a group probably won’t pay more in tax overall.
“the rich, old, mostly white democrats standing here protecting the globalist status quo”
^ this. I love how the permanent rebels of the flower child generation have NO IDEA they have become exactly the privileged, conservative, easily-offended, smug, Victorian, oppressive establishment they think they spent their youth fighting against. And have turned two generations after them into the same thing, because you have to emulate the people in charge if you want admission into their coastal elite club.(And you should want to join their club, because if you don’t, your standard of living will fall dramatically year after year thanks to the fact thay they have screwed up everything they have ever touched for everyone but themselves.) Ah, progress.
“I love how the permanent rebels of the flower child generation have NO IDEA they have become exactly the privileged, conservative, easily-offended, smug, Victorian, oppressive establishment they think they spent their youth fighting against.”
There must be a retro-hippie pop song about this remarkable transformation…
On the other hand, his plan includes proposals to eliminate the AMT and the estate tax. So wealthy Americans as a group probably won’t pay more in tax overall.
1. Most people who have more than $10MM of assets have been estate planning for decades to avoid the estate tax. Only those with poor planning end up paying meaningful amounts.
2. If they eliminate the estate tax, will they also take away the “automatic step up in basis” on death? That’s a pretty important detail (and a big give-away under the current code, IMHO). There are plenty who utilize 1031 exchanges over and over again, with the overall plan being to utilize depreciation to shelter income over their lives, and then take advantage of the automatic step-up in basis on their death for their heirs.
3. The years I was hit with AMT was only because of the state tax deduction (which isn’t used in the AMT calculation, but is used for the regular calculation). If they eliminate most of the deductions (including state and local taxes), the AMT is even less necessary that it was before.
1. Most people who have more than $10MM of assets have been estate planning for decades to avoid the estate tax. Only those with poor planning end up paying meaningful amounts.
So then the purpose of eliminating the estate tax would be mainly to help those who can’t plan? That doesn’t sound likely.
If we’re going to talk about soaking the rich, let’s start at the top. Bill Gates lives in a state with no income tax. The amount he pays in property tax has to be a lot more than the average Joe, but it’s peanuts to him. So eliminating the SALT deduction would cost him next to nothing. On the other hand, eliminating the estate tax could save his kids billions.
On the other hand, eliminating the estate tax could save his kids billions.
First of all, it’s poor governing when you create policy around 1 person or one class of person, whether it be Bill Gates, or Joe the Plumber. There are 300 million other people who have their lives impacted by the madness of the current tax code.
Secondly, it’s curious that you use Bill Gates as the example, who is already utilizing the tax code to avoid the estate tax through the Gates Foundation. How about we cap charitable giving? Let’s make the cap generous…$5 Billion.
Thirdly, there should be no step-up in basis on death, so Gate’s heirs would pay taxes every single time they sold assets. They just wouldn’t be forced to sell everything right away to pay a gigantic tax bill, and then have a higher basis on what remained (paying a much lower tax bill as they sell assets in the future). Would they “save billions”? It all depends on how well they planned (ie. how much they were really taxed on the initial wealth transfer), and the length of the time horizon.
My main problem with the current tax plan is that it is thinking too small.
Eliminate the estate tax.
No step up in basis on death.
Equalize cap gains and ordinary rates, but index basis to inflation for calculation of investment gains.
First of all, it’s poor governing when you create policy around 1 person or one class of person, whether it be Bill Gates, or Joe the Plumber. There are 300 million other people who have their lives impacted by the madness of the current tax code.
I didn’t mean to suggest that we focus on one person. He’s just a very good example of a rich person. In addition to Gates, there have to be a large number of people who make fortunes on Wall Street and then retire to Boca Raton or Palm Beach, Florida. I agree that all kinds of people should be considered form Bill Gates to the homeless people holding signs on the exit ramps of freeways.
Secondly, it’s curious that you use Bill Gates as the example, who is already utilizing the tax code to avoid the estate tax through the Gates Foundation.
It’s not the same thing. He has to give the money away. He gets to control how it’s used, which it great for him, but it still doesn’t end up going to his children and grandchildren when he kicks the bucket.
Would they “save billions”? It all depends on how well they planned (ie. how much they were really taxed on the initial wealth transfer), and the length of the time horizon.
Clearly they would have the ability to pay for the best estate planning advice available, so I guess that they would save billions under your plan. Let us know if you plan to run for president.
He’s just a very good example of a rich person.
No he’s not a good example. That’s the point. He is uncommonly rich. He’s the top 1% of the 1% of the 1% of the 1%.
He’s a terrible example, because there is only one of him, and only a few in the history of man like him.
How about a more common rich person?
Executive in CA or NYC, family makes $750,000 per year and lives in a $2.5MM house with a $1.5MM mortgage. Has $5MM of assets. Undeniably wealthy. Top 1%.
There are lots of guys who look like this. How does the tax plan look for this guy? Is this guy reaping a windfall from it?
The bottom line is that the SALT deduction argument comes down to a battle between high tax states and low tax states.
So, let me ask you one simple question:
Why should the Federal Government subsidize state spending through the SALT deduction?
In my opinion, it shouldn’t.
How about a more common rich person?
Executive in CA or NYC, family makes $750,000 per year and lives in a $2.5MM house with a $1.5MM mortgage. Has $5MM of assets. Undeniably wealthy. Top 1%.
There are lots of guys who look like this. How does the tax plan look for this guy? Is this guy reaping a windfall from it?
As I stated, there are many levels of wealth income between Bill Gates and it’s worth considering people at all levels. It’s probably unreasonable to say that there a lot of guys like that. How many could there be, a few hundred thousand? Gates has as much wealth as 5,000 of those guys. He was one hard-working SOB, that Bill Gates.
The answer to your question is in the details. People like that are sometimes affected by estate tax and AMT. Many at that income level own their own businesses and would benefit from other provisions in Trump’s plan.
You mention people in California and New York. There have be plenty of oil tycoons in Texas who pay no state income tax.
The bottom line is that the SALT deduction argument comes down to a battle between high tax states and low tax states.
So, let me ask you one simple question:
Why should the Federal Government subsidize state spending through the SALT deduction?
So you agree with my point. Eliminating the deduction is not a good way to increase taxes on rich people. There’s another agenda involved.
So you agree with my point. Eliminating the deduction is not a good way to increase taxes on rich people. There’s another agenda involved.
I didn’t even know what your point was…so I couldn’t possibly agree with it. Not all tax legislation is about making someone pay more or less. Of course there is another agenda–it’s called REFORM of the tax code.
Is our current corporate tax system appropriate? No, which is why they are pushing to a territorial system with this reform.
Is it appropriate for the Federal Government to subsidize various things (including state spending) through tax deductions? No, which is why they are removing all sorts of deductions, and cushioning the blow to lower income Americans by doubling the standard deduction.
If we have eliminated lots of deductions, do we need the AMT anymore? Nope. Great, get rid of it.
Are domestic companies at a disadvantage over multi-nationals based on tax code? Yes. OK, let’s try to fix that too.
Is there too much of an incentive in the tax code for companies to borrow money? Yes. OK, let’s limit deductibility of interest.
Those detracting from the tax plan are doing so on the basis that it is a boon for the wealthy. Yet from what I see, it doesn’t appear to be. And at the same time, the detractors are completely ignoring the good that this reform could do.
I didn’t even know what your point was…so I couldn’t possibly agree with it. Not all tax legislation is about making someone pay more or less. Of course there is another agenda–it’s called REFORM of the tax code.
My point isn’t hard to figure out. Up above, Ben wrote:
rich, old, mostly white democrats are standing here protecting the globalist status quo, keep the poor down, make them and the middle class pay taxes so the rich don’t have to.
My point is that the rich as a whole will probably benefit, contrary to this assertion. The other agenda that I alluded is the one that you stated - putting pressure on state and local governments to reduce the services that they provide, most of which is education and health care for non-rich people.
The other point is giving some satisfaction to part of Trump’s base, those WWC folks in red states who pay little or no income tax themselves (as Romney explained). They’ll get that satisfaction from seeing the taxes raised on the “coastal elites”, or whatever they call them.
Of course, the funny thing is that those people often consume the crackpot right wing media, which has often stated over the past decade that any tax increase on anybody for any reason is immoral and bad for the economy.
putting pressure on state and local governments to reduce the services that they provide, most of which is education and health care for non-rich people.
States can do what they want…but shouldn’t expect a subsidy from the Federal government to do it.
Let me go to my question though.
Do you think the Federal Government should subsidize state taxation?
States can do what they want…but shouldn’t expect a subsidy from the Federal government to do it.
+infinity.
Why should most taxpayers in other states subsidize California’s spending decisions??
Do you think the Federal Government should subsidize state taxation?
I hadn’t really thought about the question much. It may have been a questionable idea when it got started, but it would be catastrophic to just get rid of it next year.
Keep in mind that just last week the Republicans were planning to replace the ACA with a law that would send block grants - many billions of dollars every year - to each state and allow them to spend those funds on health care with a great deal of freedom. There’s already a lot of block grants, but the GOP wanted to directly fund much more state spending.
While we’re at it, let’s also keep in mind that many of the states that have high taxes, e.g. New Jersey, already send more to DC in federal taxes than they get in spending. It’s the other way around for many low tax states. Eliminating the SALT deduction would just exacerbate that phenomenon.
“Do you think the Federal Government should subsidize state taxation?”
May I chime in?
If you are in a high tax state and you are at the government teat, then absolutely YES!
Except for me. I am in a high tax state and I simply think the parasite is too large. The problem isn’t the FedGov income tax deduction for state tax, it is the state taxes being too high, which is caused by irresponsible spending.
Do you think the Federal Government should subsidize state taxation?
I hadn’t really thought about the question much.
Maybe you should, when that is the central question with respect to the SALT deduction, and the main reason we need an AMT in the first place.
I am not in favor of the subsidy, even though I benefit from it.
If I were king of the world, I’d be open to an unwavering glide path to elimination of the subsidy. A shrinking cap on the deduction would do nicely.
Perhaps start at $50k, and go down by 2.5k per year over 20 years. There…no cliff.
And the test tube is dirty if you are trying to look at what the GOP is trying to do to eliminate the ACA as some kind of evidence of where they stand on Federal government subsidy of states. Stick to the question.
Federal Government subsidy of state taxation…good policy? Or bad policy?
My vote is that it is bad policy.
How about all of the other deductions? A large portion of charitable contributions goes to churches. Are you in favor of Federal Government subsidy of religion? Then there are deductions for dependents. Should the Federal Government subsidize marriage and children?
I live in California and pay taxes in the highest tax bracket.
I support repealing the state and local tax deduction.
100%.
Democrats don’t like it because it will make it harder to raise taxes in the future, since such tax increases will no longer be subsidized by the Federal Government.
In California specifically, such tax increases will have less support from wealthy, left leaning constituents–especially if those taxes only hit the wealthy.
We have to remove obfuscation in the tax code so people have a better understanding of how much money goes to the government.
Time to lead GOP. Release preliminary tax brackets so people can actually to their own math, and explain why state/local tax deductions are bad policy.
If you can’t afford $3000 more in taxes you probably shouldn’t be buying a $300k home in CA.
or a $100K home in NY.
If you can’t afford $3000/month rent, you certainly can’t afford $6000/month in principal, interest, taxes, insurance and depreciation for an equal domicile.
“If you don’t make $50,000 a year in San Francisco then you shouldn’t live here.” —Willie Brown, former state speaker
This was posted in the previous comments:
“Jingle Male
Nevermind. They took it off the market. They paid $630,000 in 2012 ($50,000 over asking) and now it Zillows for $2,285,000.
Something crazy is going on in Seattle (though this is Bellevue).”
Well stop the presses, Jingle thinks something crazy is going on! Like NYC commercial real estate doubling in price in 2 years? That was 2 years ago. Did you know condo price per square foot is way higher in Miami Beach than it was in 2006, just as the market cratered? Jeebus.
Everywhere there are stories of real estate under stress.
The nation wide housing bubble popping is close.
Maybe even as close as October 1st.
+++++++
Landlord’s View of the Brick and Mortar Meltdown
John McNellis • Sep 28, 2017 • Wolf Street
We have been in the retail development business for thirty-five years, developing a couple projects a year. Through more luck than strategy, we focused on smaller, supermarket-anchored, service-oriented neighborhood centers in towns with high barriers to entry.
That is, we just happened to pick the most internet-resistant strain of retail long before the net began its march to the sea. And because our best properties are in smug towns that encourage new development about as much as high school smoking, we have a bulwark against retail’s far greater problem, its staggering over-building from coast to coast. But even with this tight portfolio, we are faced with weekly tenant bankruptcies, defaults, and requests for rent or space reductions. In short, our retail is no fun.
Yet despite the Wall Street Journal’s almost daily pronouncements, traditional retail is not dead. But it is so badly overweight, so bloated with unwanted shopping centers, that it has Type 2 diabetes. America was choking from a vast oversupply of empty storefronts long before the internet and changing buying patterns rendered tens of millions of additional square footage redundant. But unlike most dieters, retail will ultimately – painfully – shed its excess weight.
As discussed previously, the best centers – whether lowly strips or glamorous malls – have nothing to fear from the net or overbuilding or even the economy itself. If one has the best tenants on the best corner at the best intersection in a growing town, one need only keep her property in first-class condition to weather all economic storms. Most owners are less fortunate, however, and are faced with the overriding challenge of reverse musical chairs: Each time the Muzak stops, there is one more empty chair.
The big-picture fix from the landlord’s standpoint is, like so much in life, easy to prescribe, hard to swallow: repurposing or flat-out razing thousands of economically-obsolescent shopping centers. But rather than talk about generic fixes, it may be more useful to describe our company’s approach to retail’s climate change.
2 B -
This guy is describing the main avenues of the close in Cook County suburbs of Chicago to a ‘t’. Was just there in early August and I was astonished at the sheer number of empty storefronts. And growing monthly.
zumper has chighetto rents up?
that has to be more luxury than ghetto getting rented
someone has to pay for the YUGE raises gov workers received there
It works like this, from the Illinois article:
‘Wilson, who represents the ward that houses Park Evanston, said the renovations could affect how much each unit costs. “There’s a reference to investors spending $15,000 a unit to fix up the building’s apartments,” Wilson said. “One would imagine that if they’re going to invest additional money the rents would probably increase.”
‘The median net rent on the North Shore is already rising, according to a report by Chicago-based consulting firm Appraisal Research Counselors. The rate rose 9.8 percent from last year.’
‘Prices for Park Evanston apartments currently start at $1,486 for a studio apartment and $4,354 for a three-bedroom apartment, according to the building’s website.’
‘However, Evanston economic development manager Paul Zalmezak said he believes the building needs a renovation to remain competitive in the higher-end rental market.’
‘Zalmezak said the renovations would help Park Evanston compete with newer developments like E2 Apartments, 1890 Maple Ave., and other new proposals for mixed-used and residential buildings — including the two controversial proposals for 16- and 37-story towers on Sherman Avenue.’
“What it really suggests big picture is that Evanston is an attractive marketplace to invest in,” Zalmezak said. “That puts pressure on a building owner because now they either have to upgrade to keep up, or they become mid-market and have more affordable rents.”
It’s self reinforcing, as long as you ignore what people can afford.
And you can afford to ignore what people can afford so long as the Fed and the GSEs stand ready with stealth bailouts to pump money into developers’ outstretched hands.
I’ve noticed commercial properties in my county sit vacant for 5-10+ years and noticed a comment from someone on another message board who lives in a neighboring county noting the same thing. At the same time my company pays through the nose for office space in a very poor quality building - partly due to stupid and lazy management, but thats redudant isnt it? Still, rents are not cheap and more and more businesses are closing down in the primary mall. Place looks like a ghost town - perfect timing for halloween I guess!
The same thing is true (commercial/light industrial space) in the suburbs around Seattle - the “for lease” signs have been up for the past 20 years, to the point that the pressure-treated 4×4s holding them up have rotted off a couple of times and have had to be replaced.
I suspect that more is going on here - such as the owners using these empty properties as a loss to offset income gains elsewhere.
And then the music stopped.
Can Mel Watt (obama legacy until 2019) stop this madness?
After all, RE only goes up!
+++++
San Francisco Bay Area Pending Home Sales Plunge, California’s Drop too, and It’s Not a Blip
Wolf Richter • Sep 27, 2017 • Wolf Street
Pending home sales in California fell in August from a year ago, the second month in a row of year-over-year declines, according to the California Association of Realtors, with the Pending Home Sales Index dropping 3.5% from a year ago, after having dropped 2.6% in July:
“As August marks the end of the peak home-buying season, the housing market is showing signs of slowing,” it said. Real estate agents “reported fewer floor calls, listing appointments, and client presentations.”
The biggest problem was the greater Bay Area, with pending home sales plunging 11.6% year-over-year, after having plunged 11.5% in July. It was the 11th month in a row of year-over-year declines. The counties of San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Sacramento, and Santa Cruz all saw double-digit declines. Silicon Valley stretches across San Mateo and Santa Clara.
Pending home sales also began curdling more severely in Southern California, falling 3.8% year-over-year, after having inched up 1.4% in July. Only Orange and San Bernardino booked gains. In Los Angeles, pending home sales inched down 1.7%, after still having been in positive territory in July. In San Diego, pending home sales plunged 12.7%, after a 5.8% drop in July.
If only there were more supply to get those numbers back up.
To round out the picture:
http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/California-pending-home-sales-sputter-for-second-straight-month-in-August-C-A-R-reports-1002577915
“The Market Velocity Index increased from 59 to 69, indicating that there were 69 percent more homes sold than there were new listings. In other words, the supply of homes available for sale continued to drop, which will make the remaining units more competitive as net supply has deteriorated by roughly 45,000 units this year.”
Let’s go to the data:
http://www.car.org/media/ppt/Aug2017phsi3.pptx
This is a PowerPoint presentation that provides data going back to January 2008. Overall, seems pretty steady. A decline in pending sales year on year equal to, or greater than the current year on year decline has happened a number of times since 2010 (yes, even in the Bay Area).
With 4.4 million excess empty and defaulted housing units and a falling population, CA has a long way to go yet.
Oh good grief HA, that number changes every time you pull it out of your bodily orifice. At least you’re down from 36M.
You seriously need to get out more.
Hello my good friend.
Flower Mound, TX Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/flower-mound-tx/market-trends/
No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-28/more-americans-are-falling-behind-on-student-loans-and-nobody-quite-knows-why
“From LA Weekly in California. “The onetime magnet for the homeless has become, in the span of 10 years, a magnet for the young and wealthy, with median two-bedroom rents reaching $3,350 last year. Buoyed by South Park, the Old Bank District, and the Arts District, DTLA has become Venice East.”
Yup - and who the hell would want Venice rent prices in DTLA - when all you get is traffic, smoke, renovated buildings and crowds of rather off the wall folk WITHOUT the beach?
The architecture school I attended for grad school moved from a quiet nabe in Santa Monica to the old Santa Fe freight building in the Arts District in DTLA and ya know impressive as the transformation has been there is no way I would live down there esp at those rent rates! Just madness all around DTLA.
Consider this.. that $3350 a month average… those are after Tax dollars.
In California, with its high state income taxes, that represents a gross income in the range $5000 - $5300 a month in pre-tax earnings. (Fed tax is lower, but FICA). That translates into a pre-tax salary income (ignoring the extra hit self-employed have via FICA) of $60,000 to $64,000 that has to be earned just to pay the rent.
That range is greater than the national median family income.
The entitlement attitude + cheap and easy money (debt).
We see the same with public union goons.
We see the same with flippers and corporations buying housing stock.
We see the same with commercial landlords that would rather go years without a tenant than lower their rents.
We see the same with bankrupt cities.
We see the same with dot.comv2 companies that make no money.
We see them same with colleges.
We see the same with illegals.
Etc.
+++++++
Delanie Walker is a tight end for the NFL’s Tennessee Titans and earns $13,375,000 (that’s THIRTEEN MILLION THREE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY FIVE THOUSAND DOLLARS) that includes a “signing bonus,” a “roster bonus,” a “workout bonus” plus other incentives, has come across as the ultimate entitled millionaire jock by telling fans he really doesn’t care if you show up.
“And the fans that don’t want to come to the game? I mean, OK. Bye. I mean, if you feel that’s something, we’re disrespecting you, don’t come to the game. You don’t have to. No one’s telling you to come to the game. It’s your freedom of choice to do that.”
https://www.allenbwest.com/2017/09/28/titans-delanie-walker-outrageous-message-boycotting-fans/
You don’t have to. No one’s telling you to come to the game. It’s your freedom of choice to do that.”
I wonder if this Allen B. West character disagrees with this statement. Maybe he thinks that people should be compelled to attend football games.
The NFL gets billions in taxpayer monies to build their stadiums.
They have a Federal anti-trust exemption allowing the league to act as a monopoly has helped them reap billions of dollars each year to lucrative broadcasting contracts.
If your employer encourages you to bring your personal, political grievances to work… against written company policy… to blast at your own customers… to the detriment of your business…and then insults the very taxpayers in which your lavish lifestyle is based.
Then things are going to change.
Elections have consequences.
If your employer encourages you to bring your personal, political grievances to work… against written company policy… to blast at your own customers…to the detriment of your business…
That sounds like a very confused employer. I wouldn’t blame a player.
and then insults the very taxpayers in which your lavish lifestyle is based.
Look at the quote again:
No one’s telling you to come to the game. It’s your freedom of choice to do that.
That’s not an insult to anyone.
“And the fans that don’t want to come to the game? I mean, OK. Bye. I mean, if you feel that’s something, we’re disrespecting you, don’t come to the game. You don’t have to. No one’s telling you to come to the game. It’s your freedom of choice to do that.”
Nice. I remember being a teenager working at a restaurant. As far as I was concerned the less customers the better. The owner eventually made it clear why I was looking at it the wrong way.
“From LA Weekly in California. “The onetime magnet for the homeless has become, in the span of 10 years, a magnet for the young and wealthy, with median two-bedroom rents reaching $3,350 last year. Buoyed by South Park, the Old Bank District, and the Arts District, DTLA has become Venice East.”
Yup. And who in their right mind living in DTLA would pay that kinda dough while nestled in grid lock traffic, fumes, wierdos and the heat island called DTLA? To boot there is no beach within 15 miles.
I attended private architecture school (ya I know the privilege) that started in a nice quiet industrial nabe in Santa Monica and then moved to the Arts District in DTLA. Went back for a reunion a few years back and looked about the new nabe and thought there is no way on God’s green earth I would be in this area at all - it is in the old Santa Fe freight building off Alameda. Getting in and out of DTLA now - a nightmare of epic proportions. You too can have a rental for 3k a month with no beach.
EPIC.
Oakton, VA Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/oakton-va/market-trends/
Saw this on another forum, very interesting chart
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-28/we-are-already-depression-if-borrowing-money-not-income
Excerpt:
I suggest that government debt is not part of “ National Income” because it is not income. It is borrowed (often from sovereigns that are not our friends) and must be paid back eventually. We do not consider borrowed money as income anywhere else and it shouldn’t be considered as National Income. Debt is artificial stimulus not National Income! Governments must pay back debt either through higher taxes, inflation/depreciated currency, reduced services or some combination thereof. If we want an accurate picture of whether or not the economy is self sustaining, then we need to consider a measure I would like to introduce as “Actual National Income”which does not count artificial stimulus. Therefore to accurately measure the health of the economy, government debt must be subtracted from the formula. Please consider the GDP formula with the following modification.
Actual GDP = PI + BT + (GS – GB)
Where GB is government borrowing
So, if you acknowledge for the sake of argument that government debt is not actual national income, the following graph is how the U.S. economy looks like excluding stimulus. This is Actual GDP excluding artificial stimulus. [it's negative]
Anyone here have investments in Houston? Specifically, SFR?
I know a few fools losing their ass on houses they bought in Dallas and Houston. They’re cash flow negative.
Please for the love of Pete, Housing Analyst, stop making things up.
Another letter for why ‘I am leaving Chicago for…..”
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/letters/ct-letters-goodbye-chicago-florida-taxes-20170927-story.html
Yikes.
2banana’s Law:
Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh*t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy
+++++
“The moment of clarity came last year when our property taxes were raised 35 percent (negotiated down from the original charge of 65 percent)”
Illinois’ state and local tax burden, as a percent of its residents’ personal income, was below the U.S. average for decades despite extensive services.
They achieved this by going into debt and not funding public employee pensions.
The members of Generation Greed writing these letters benefitted from the low taxes, the services, and often the pensions. They shifted the costs to the future.
And now that the future has arrived, they are running away from it and sticking it to others.
In Illinois, retirement income is EXEMPT FROM THE STATE INCOME TAX. How do they justify that?
LINDSEY GRAHAM ON OBAMACARE REPEAL: I HAD NO IDEA WHAT I WAS DOING
Ryan Grim, Aída Chávez
September 27 2017, 1:59 p.m
SENATE DEMOCRATS AND their progressive allies spent the last week and a half in a full-blown mobilization against an existential threat to the Affordable Care Act.
Now that it has fizzled out, the lead author of the measure, known as the Graham-Cassidy bill, has an admission to make: He had no clue what he was doing.
https://theintercept.com/2017/09/27/lindsey-graham-on-obamacare-repeal-i-had-no-idea-what-i-was-doing/
And Lindsey “don’t vote for me if you’re tired of war” Graham had no idea what he was doing when he ran for the R2016 nomination, in which he never polled above 2%.
Obama didn’t have any idea either. That’s why he flailed around for months and then let the insurance companies write it.
grubered
verb
To be lied to (and screwed over) by Liberal Progressives or the Govt because they know you will not do what they consider the “right thing” if they told you the truth or did not deceive you.
Obama grubered us all with Obamacare.
Source: Jonathan Gruber Obamacare expert and paid consultant was found in multiple videos to have admitted that Obamacare was made less transparent and difficult to understand so that it would pass. He said “the bill was only passed due to the stupidity of the American voter”.
http://onlineslangdictionary.com/meaning-definition-of/grubered
“the bill was only passed due to the stupidity of the American voter”.
In this case Mighty = Bueller
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4zyjLyBp64
So America won’t be made great again after all.
‘America won’t be made great again’
We know what your hopes are Mike.
Some said earlier this year that if Obamacare wasn’t overhauled or replaced that it would self destruct. I guess we’ll see. Let’s not copy what Canada does in the next permutation. My gf is coming down to the US in two weeks as a medical tourist because the wait time for a specialist up there is 18 months.
“So America won’t be made great again after all.”
What Happened
It will only self-destruct of politicians have the guts to stop throwing billions and billions to insurance companies to keep it propped up.
I feel like this should be repeated every time someone publicly supports the ACA.
The ACA was shoved down America’s throat with purposeful obfuscation, and like every other entitlement in the history of man, is politically impossible to eliminate.
If this was done in a business environment, it would be called fraud.
Amazing watching Democrats fight to preserve state tax deductions for high income peeps in CA and NY, while Republicans want to double the standard deduction, which will help low income and middle class tax payers.
And here I was convinced Dems are for the little guy, while evil Republicans only want to help the rich. Or so the MSM has spent the last 20 years telling me.
Why, it’s almost as if the MSM/Dems do nothing but lie.
It really is amazing watching DJT tie the democrats in knots.
He forces them to display their true colors like how the democrats defend the tax code to subsidize rich home owners at the expense of the poor and middle class.
No matter what - DJT wins on this.
The landslide in 2019 is going to be epic.
Maybe Nancy and Chuck can kneel. That will solve all their problems.
LOL, yes its truly something to behold, with Trump going all one punch man on them week after week after week.
I figured out the Dems do nothing but lie barely into my mid 20s - stopped voting for them back then. Their uniting characteristic is a lust for power with a predilection for criminality to satisfy that lust.
“Real Estate ‘Pros’ Charged In Massive $50 Million Mortgage Scams”
http://www.mpamag.com/news/real-estate-pros-charged-in-massive-50-million-mortgage-scam-79794.aspx
Don’t leave your children or pets alone in a room with a Realtor…
When RE fails to appreciate in a bubble…
The scams get exposed.
Saw the same in 2006-7
Lenders-Я-Easy
“The 24-story building, 1630 Chicago Ave., sits among many Evanston businesses and restaurants, including a Whole Foods. It also houses numerous Northwestern students who live off-campus.”
It’s nice to hear the NU students have some decent off-campus housing choices these days. Hopefully it is unlike the arson-prone ghetto housing my college roommates and I shared four decades back.
QCA rental report:
The rentals in my area, the QCA, seem unhinged. A large part of it has to do with the fact that fewer and fewer people want to live in Illinois, they’d likely much prefer to live a bridge-drive-away from their jobs in the lower-tax Iowa side. Which is why it seems like almost All the available and ‘affordable’ For Rent places are in Illinois, who the heck wants to live there, no matter how cheap and cool looking the house/apt/condo is.
Problem is, in order to escape the tax our overlords impose upon them, Illinois renters are devouring all the cheap rents on the Iowa side, driving UP the rents.
Insert image, of the new I-74 bridge construction over the Mississippi River, here X.
Disregard the news reports that Illinois can’t fund their half of the construction. As Two-Ban says, they Will get paid, er something like that.
At many of the street intersections in my city there’s the typical stab-in-the-ground signs advertising they Buy Houses, or they offer, Learn to Flip classes. [It's amazing that this sheet keeps going, like the Energizer Bunny.] Judging by the plethora of ads on Craigslist, it seems many have taken up that HGTV challenge. An automobile dealership owner here has 70 rental houses, the fireman guy from my old small town has 100 plus. Etc, etc, etc…
I don’t know exactly how Craigslist operates, but it seems to me a large number of would-be-landlords have taken to placing a new ad on Craigslist every day just to keep front and center. I mean, for instance, ads for 1300 Dollar residential houses which are smack dab between two busy, three lane, one-way hyways near railroad crossings that no one in their right mind would rent. Every day, for the last two months, at least, that ad has been placed at the top of every search I do.
Every time I see it I think, ‘Signs of Desperation’ and, ‘ who in their right mind would rent that?!’, especially, it being one block from the numerous wailing railroad trains which Violently and mercilessly shake every poor child and adult from sleep every ten to twenty minutes, from there, to ten blocks away, 24/7/365 as if it were the hand of death. I kid you not. Such evil, those locomotive horns are, and those who enable them. Pure, evil. Visited upon the poor as if to punish those who would not, or could not, sign on to Mr. Bankers special dotted line.
I imagine the city council, supported by our betters, requires the locomotive engineers to blow their ferocious horns in order to UP the value of the properties far away from the noise, but IDK. They might claim it’s all done in order to warn idiot automobile drivers approaching a railroad crossing as if they’d never encountered such, and to warn wayward headphone wearing teens walking down the center of the railroad tracks, but I have my doubts.
If true, I wonder why the expense of the sound peace of poor children sleeping, is worth all that. If so, What a wacky world we live in. Imho, we’re surrounded by rule making monsters, ones which enjoy eating the sleep of poor children. I imagine you, Dear reader, have a section just like that in your town which is the same. It kind of equates to, ‘rich-in-their-minds homeowners’ eating the sleep of poor children.
That said, rents have gone bonkers here. Remind me why I should just suck it up and pay up [H.A.] especially pet owners, wow, talk about the ‘new’, I don’t know, ‘devoured-pay-up class’? It’s like pet owners are the ‘new’ smokers, ‘there’s no room at the Inn for you’… move along.
Buying a mobile home, or an RV, never looked better. But, heck, looking at the downward lifespan of Gen X, I’m lucky if I get that far.
Yah, there IS a mouse in my pocket! There’s a mouse in your pocket, too, if you’d just look UP. Que, GeoengineeringWatch.org and take note.
When I’m living on my boat, there’s very few places that the train will wake me up.
Marketwatch dot com
Yale fellow, former Morgan Stanley chief economist: A correction looms
By Shawn Langlois
Published: Sept 28, 2017 12:50 p.m. ET
‘We are long overdue for a correction’
Getty
Yale University’s Stephen Roach.
The combo of lofty valuations and rising interest rates is about to wreak havoc on markets, potentially before the end of the year, according to Stephen Roach, former Morgan Stanley chief economist and Morgan Stanley Asia chairman.
In fact, he told CNBC that “we are long overdue for a correction” and that there’s a 50/50 chance we’ll see a double-digit decline in the coming months.
“Inflation has all but vanished from the scene,” said Roach, currently a fellow at Yale University. “Policy makers as well as investment managers, to say nothing of the investors that they represent, don’t remember what inflation is like and what monetary tightening might be in that environment.”
He praised the Fed a few days ago in a note, but said its “commitment to normalization of its policy rate and balance sheet” should have come much earlier.
“The markets are frothy, and it’s a froth again that strikes me as reminiscent of what we saw in a lengthy precrisis period in the 2003 to early 2007 period,” Roach explained to CNBC on Wednesday. “I think the one lesson we learned from that crisis is that financial stability addressing frothy markets with a more normal, tougher, disciplined monetary policy is not such a bad thing.”
…
I think Vitus should take a knee in protest of this court order.
German court tells donkey owners to pony up for damaged car
By Associated Press September 28 at 11:53 AM
BERLIN — A German court has ordered a donkey’s owners to pony up 5,800 euros ($6,800) to the driver of a pricey McLaren sports car to cover damage caused when the animal chomped the backside of the vehicle.
Police said that Vitus the donkey may have mistaken the orange McLaren parked next to his enclosure as a giant carrot when he bit the back, damaging the paint and a carbon-fiber piece.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/mclaren-owner-in-germany-claims-donkey-damaged-car/2017/09/28/4dd266d4-a42b-11e7-b573-8ec86cdfe1ed_story.html
These donkeys are really angry these days.
Kinda quiet… Hearst woulda created some news by now.
The media is blaming the Brexit for the London real estate crash:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/29/real_estate/london-real-estate-property-home-prices-fall/index.html
Experts have warned for over a year that Britain’s planned departure from the European Union would hurt London’s supercharged real estate market. The worry is that major shifts in law-making, immigration, investment and trade could scare away buyers — especially wealthy foreigners.
Especially wealthy foreigners.
Funny how no one seems to care how the bubble ravaged London’s middle class, making housing utterly unaffordable. I know of people who ride the train for two hours to their jobs in London, from as far away as the southern coast, as it was the only way they could afford a place. And I’m talking about people with six figure incomes.