October 18, 2017

Even These Darlings Have Recorded A Drop In Prices

A report from the Financial Post in Canada. “Renters will tell you they can’t afford the escalating prices to lease out a unit in the Greater Toronto Area’s ridiculously tight condominium apartment market. Yet, as the average rental rate in the city for a 734-square-foot condo increased to $2.99 per square foot or $2,219 in the third quarter of 2017 (an increase of $232 during the past 12 months) those units being bought by investors are actually producing no income and costing landlords money. ‘Investors don’t typically buy a completed unit, they buy new construction,’ said Shaun Hildebrand, senior vice-president with Urbanation Inc, noting the units being leased out today were bought at much lower prices four years ago. ‘That’s the only reason they are cash flow positive or cash flow neutral. To buy a condo today at today’s average price and rent it out you are cash flow negative. Some people are doing that betting on appreciation.’”

“‘My concern is not so much the units being rented out now as the ones being bought now that will have to be rented out later,’ said Hildebrand. ‘They are being sold in pre-construction for prices 30 or 40 per cent more than a year ago. What happens when rents don’t cover their investment today?’”

From Radio New Zealand. “The latest Massey University Home Affordability Report shows housing affordability has slightly improved nationwide, largely driven by falling prices in Northland, Wellington and Central Otago Lakes. In Northland median house prices dropped $30,000, in Wellington by $28,000, and Central Otago Lakes by $35,000. ‘We’ve seen some significant falls in house prices in some regions this quarter, so it will be interesting to see if this spreads to other regions in the coming quarter,’ said Associate Professor Graham Squires from the School of Economics and Finance.”

From Domain News in Australia. “Sydney hasn’t been the only city to experience falling property prices in the past few months – nine regional towns in New South Wales also saw a pull back over the September quarter. As investors and young buyers have been priced out of the harbour city, they’ve increasingly headed to Wollongong and Newcastle – the nearest regional hubs. And prices have soared. But now even these real estate darlings have recorded a drop in prices, Domain Group’s State of the Market report found.”

“And in Newcastle the selling environment was much the same, with less competition in recent months, Newcastle Buyer’s Agent principal Tiron Manning said. ‘I’m seeing more property price reductions, and more emails every day about price reductions, especially at the higher end of the market from about $800,000 to $1 million. I’m getting feedback from agents that buyers at that price point are more guarded, they’re not as ready to pounce.’”

From The Australian. “More than 100 apartments in a high-profile inner-city Brisbane development are yet to settle amid warnings it is ‘crunch time’ for ­developers in the Queensland capital. Some 20 per cent of the first tower of property developer Gurner’s 520-unit FV development are yet to settle, although the company maintains sales-to-date have allowed the $180 million in debt linked the project to be repaid in full. The planned $600m twin tower development in the Brisbane apartment hotspot of Fortitude Valley is being closely watched as an indication of health for the local market, considered by many — including the Reserve Bank — to be oversupplied.”

“Sunland Group executive chairman, Soheil Abedian, said four foreign buyers recently failed to settle their apartment purchases in the 150-unit Abian complex, arguably one of Brisbane’s most luxurious apartment towers. All local buyers settled, but three offshore Chinese buyers and one Pacific Island buyer did not. Mr Abedian said he resold the four apartments at a premium to the initial purchase price of 10 per cent or more. ‘What we are seeing is the Chinese coming from overseas are having difficulty because of the restriction of transfer of funds by the Chinese government,’ Mr Abedian told The Australian.”

“Ferrier Hodgson Queensland property director Campbell Gordon said the weeks leading up to Christmas would be the potential settlement crunch for developers, which could add to their lending costs. ‘That’s where the big exposure is,’ he said. ‘That’s when there is more collateral damage — that’s when a lender steps in. If there is any pain it will be somewhat short and sharp. Leading up to Christmas certainly will be crunch time.’”

From The National on Dubai. “Residential property transactions in Dubai are rising, but the price trajectory remains unclear as developers selling off-plan units drive down prices in the affordable housing sector and create a stock of low-quality residential units in the emirate, brokers said. Core Savills cautioned that the quality of off-plan products will not meet the demands of the end-users.”

“‘Although we anticipate the number of proposed units and actual hand-overs to vary notably, we expect developers to continue building in the run up to 2020 creating a significant surplus in the lower end of the market that does not adequately address the needs of target end-users,’ said Core Savills. ‘Despite stronger regulations being in place, we continue to view increasing off-plan activity with caution, particularly given its detrimental effect on ready sales that fuels further systemic market risk.’”

From Bloomberg on the UK. “Home price declines for the most expensive homes are rippling out to the rest of the city as tax increases for landlords, fears about the economy after the Brexit vote and high values damp demand. Home values fell 2.7 percent in the year through September, the most since 2009, according to Acadata and LSL Property Services. The top end of the market has been falling further for longer — values are down 15 percent from the peak in September 2014, according to data compiled by Savills Plc.”

“Buyers seeking mortgages for home purchases in some parts of London are being told by valuers that properties are worth less than they’ve offered, according to Ray Boulger, senior mortgage technical manager at mortgage broker John Charcol. That leaves them with the option of dropping the sale, using more cash or bargaining for a lower price, he said.”

“It’s not just sales that are falling. Rents fell 1 percent in Greater London in September from August, according to rental index HomeLet. The cost of leasing a home in the best districts is down 3 percent in the past year, according to broker Knight Frank. The rental ‘market is continuing on a downward trajectory,’ Mark Wilson, the founder of broker Global Apartments, said. ‘We will know when it hits the floor, or that there is an equilibrium, when the phones start ringing like they used to. Landlords continue to be fantasists.’”

“‘We are approaching a tipping point,’ Lawrence Bowles, a residential research analyst at broker Savills Plc said. ‘We have seen transactions in London fall, particularly for home movers since the great financial crisis. Eventually you get to a point where people are fed up waiting and accept a price cut to get a sale.’”

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-10-18 08:40:09

‘They are being sold in pre-construction for prices 30 or 40 per cent more than a year ago. What happens when rents don’t cover their investment today?’

They can always sell, right Shaun?

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-10-19 08:22:50

Selling is easy under any market conditions, provided the seller is willing to reduce the offer price to a level that the market will 🐻.

Comment by rms
2017-10-19 12:30:37

“Everything is for sale.” —John Gage

Comment by BlackSwanDive
2017-10-18 08:59:20

And the stock market melt-up continues…

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-10-19 08:20:23

Are you planning to cash in your chips before the next crash, or to just surf the tsunami until the tide is calm again?

Comment by BlackSwanDive
2017-10-19 08:36:48

I’m minimally exposed. A crash would certainly bring buying opportunities.

I have zero debt, so not too worried about any sort of economic meltdown. What I’d really be interested in is a right-priced property, which hasn’t been around since the 90’s. Maybe a nice little commercial piece on half an acre with a small shop and living quarters on the second floor. Hey, a guy can dream.

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-10-19 09:20:35

“I’d really be interested in is a right-priced property, which hasn’t been around since the 90’s.”

Despite the steady blather about affordable housing, right-priced property is not part of the PTB’s game plan.

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Comment by Carl Morris
2017-10-19 11:29:09

Right priced property could separate the PTBs head from their body.

Comment by 2banana
2017-10-18 10:04:01

Mel Watt is NOT happy.


Housing Starts, Permits Collapse In September (Spoiler Alert: It Wasn’t Just The Storms)
ZeroHedge - Oct 18, 2017

Following last month’s bounce in permits (later revised lower), September expectations were for a decline of 2.1% (presumably analysts knew of the storms’ potential impact when they guessed) but it utterly collapsed - down 4.5%. Worse still Housing Starts were supposed to drop just 0.4% in September but crashed 4.7%.

These are 2 to 3 standard deviation misses of expectations… so don’t simply blame the storms as analysts were well aware that they occurred when they made their forecasts…

And it was clearly not just the hurricanes - starts dropped in every region except The West:

Northeast: -9.2%
Midwest: -20.2%
South -9.3%
West: +15.7%

Comment by rj not in chicago anymore
2017-10-18 14:57:47

2 B - This…….

Data Watch
Housing Starts Declined 4.7% in September To view this article, Click Here
Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist
Robert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist
Date: 10/18/2017

Housing starts declined 4.7% in September to a 1.127 million annual rate, well below the consensus expected 1.175 million. Starts are up 6.1% versus a year ago.

The drop in starts in September was due to a decline in both single-family and multi-unit starts. In the past year, single-family starts are up 5.9% while multi-unit starts are up 6.8%.

Starts in September fell in the Midwest, South, and Northeast, but rose in the West.

New building permits fell 4.5% in September to a 1.215 million annual rate, below the consensus expected 1.245 million. Compared to a year ago, permits for single-family units are up 9.3% while permits for multi-family homes are down 24%.

Implications: Housing starts came in weaker than the consensus expected for September, but we expect a sharp rebound in the months ahead. Two key factors held down starts: First, multi-unit starts (apartments), which are normally very volatile, dropped 5.1%. Second, single-family starts plummeted in the South, dropping 15.3%, in large part due to storm impacts from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. In fact, the South represented 54,000 of the 56,000 decline in starts in September. Strip out that region, and total starts were essentially unchanged from August. According to the Census Bureau, the counties affected by the hurricanes accounted for 26% of new construction authorized in the southern region in 2016, signaling the outsized affect these areas have on headline numbers. Notably, single-family starts rose in every other region in September – the Northeast, Midwest, and West – which supports our view that the fundamentals powering the housing recovery are still in place. In spite of the overall drop in starts for the month, they’re still up 6.1% from a year ago. Although overall permits dropped 4.5% in September - and are now down 4.3% versus a year ago - this was entirely due to a decline in multi-family permits. Permits for single-family units, which are more stable from month to month, rose 2.4% in September and are up 9.3% in the past year. Multi-family construction led the way in the early stages of the housing recovery (2011-15). By 2015, 35.7% of all starts were in the multi-family sector, the largest share since the mid-1980s, when the last wave of Baby Boomers was growing up and moving to cities. Since then, the multi-family share of starts has been trending down, currently standing at 26.4%. We expect this trend to continue and view the shift toward single-family construction is a positive sign for the economy because, on average, each single-family home contributes to GDP about twice the amount of a multi-family unit. Based on population growth and “scrappage,” housing starts should eventually rise to about 1.5 million units per year. And the longer this process takes, the more room the housing market will have to eventually overshoot the 1.5 million mark.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-10-18 15:08:12

And the longer this process takes, the more room the housing market will have to eventually overshoot the 1.5 million mark.

Sweet. We’re all gonna get rich before this is over.

Comment by 2banana
2017-10-18 10:08:45

2banana’s Rule:

Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh*t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy


The State Of Illinois Is “Past The Point Of No Return”
ZeroHedge - Oct 18, 2017 10:52 AM

Everyone knows Illinois’ financial condition is poor. Conventional thinking seems to be that a bond default, should that happen, would be many years in the future. Pardon me, but wasn’t that the thinking right up to Puerto Rico’s, “We can’t pay” announcement?

The State of Illinois, in my opinion, is past the point of no return. It does not have the ability to raise taxes or cut spending to the degree necessary to reduce the annual cost of bond and retiree benefits from 33% to a sustainable level.

The insolvency is not the result of too much bonded debt, but rather the government promising retirement and other post-employment benefits that aren’t affordable.

Bear in mind that direct debt of the State is exempt from any form of bankruptcy. Most believe that the State’s pension benefit obligations are on parity with states’ general obligation bonds and bankruptcy-exempt as well.

Since neither GO bond holders nor pension fund creditors are subject to any bankruptcy court, who would win? Together they would be by far the State’s largest long-term contractual obligors. I think the State’s GOB investors would come out ahead because the State would not be able to borrow in its own name until it makes good on past due GO P&I.

Comment by CHE
2017-10-18 12:13:35

Had to get up and leave a couple days ago when I overheard this guy (probably in 60s or so) talking to some 20 and 30-somethings telling them about his time working with “The City” (of LA). He retired at 50 - his pension is 90% of his salary, plus he gets 3% a year and only pays $18 a month for health insurance.

Makes me sick to my stomach. Meanwhile these poor kids are struggling to pay rent and wondering if they will ever afford a house.

Pension implosion can’t come soon enough.

Comment by rms
2017-10-18 12:40:09

“You’re so vain.” (the pensioner) —Carly Simon

Comment by BlackSwanDive
2017-10-18 12:59:06

The people never got a say in those salaries, pensions and benefits. When the time comes, I’m sure that point will be made clear.

Stiffed pensioner: “B-b-b-but, I was promised that!

Public: “Not by us, and we’re the ones paying. So sorry you listened to one of your own instead of the ones you’re working for and who pay your salary and benefits.”

Comment by MightyMike
2017-10-18 13:18:43

You could say that about anything. People didn’t get a direct vote on the wars that will be paid for by future generations. The anger directed at these retirees is interesting.

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Comment by jeff
2017-10-18 14:55:15

“The anger directed at these retirees is interesting.”

You mean the anger directed at these leftist policies is interesting.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-10-18 15:02:32

The text indicates otherwise.

Pension implosion can’t come soon enough.

“You’re so vain.” (the pensioner) —Carly Simon

Stiffed pensioner: “B-b-b-but, I was promised that!

And that’s only from today.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-10-18 15:17:22

There is opportunity for a pension for you too Mike but you’re going to have to get a job and earn it. Nobody is going to hand it to you.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-10-18 15:50:55

You have no idea what you’re talking about.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-10-18 16:06:44

Work for it.

Comment by BlackSwanDive
2017-10-18 17:22:23

I don’t see any anger in my post, snowflake. Nice try though.

Comment by jeff
2017-10-18 17:43:21

“You mean the anger directed at these leftist policies is interesting.”

“The text indicates otherwise.”

How do you figure that?

“Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh*t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy”

Comment by MightyMike
2017-10-18 17:48:07

I showed examples of the text. You must have missed that.

Comment by jeff
2017-10-18 19:14:38

No I saw them, they referred to the result of leftist policies, long term democrat rule and public unions.

Comment by oxide
2017-10-19 05:27:27

FWIW, there is definitely some anger at a retiree who retired at 50 at 90% of his salary. With a 3% bump and practically no health insurance premium? I can only think that this was an outlier and not the norm. Spiked to the max I suppose.

That said, I would be angry at those retirees too. The people to be mad at were the policy makers in the 1970s who agreed to this crap. Yes, they needed police and teachers, but not *that* much. It’s this sort of behavior that give unions a well-deserved bad reputation.

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-10-19 08:29:42

“It’s this sort of behavior that give unions a well-deserved bad reputation.”

Yet even today, when the egregious practices like pension spiking are known to unjustly enrich public employees at the public’s expense, the politicians don’t have the stones to stand up to the public unions and make even these small (justifiable) changes.

The City of LA’s pension costs now represent more than 18% of the city’s budget, up from 5% in 2005…

Comment by BlackSwanDive
2017-10-19 09:12:40

“I showed examples of the text. You must have missed that.”

No, I saw exactly what you posted. My post may have exhibited a bit of scorn or contempt, but certainly not anger. Is English your second language?

Comment by jeff
2017-10-19 14:24:39

I only get mad at double dippers, retired at 42 and then take another public sector job and start working on pension number 2.

Comment by taxpayers
2017-10-18 17:16:31

gov goons get paid-you pay
see IL for results, they tried but a judge sealed their doom

Comment by Professor Bear
2017-10-19 09:22:08

Are you saying that firemen, police officers, and public school teachers should all be screwed out of the pensions that they were promised and worked for all their careers?

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Comment by CHE
2017-10-19 12:36:59

It’s not a binary option - pension or no pension.

Government workers should get a reasonable pension.

The pension should not be outrageous.

Retired collecting almost 90% of what you made while you were working in your highest earning years, retiring early and getting free health benefits is not reasonable.

Taxpayers are basically paying for two people at the same time, while one is not working or producing anything.

It is not mathematically sustainable. It will fail.

All the “promises” in the world don’t mean crap when there’s no money to pay them back.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-10-19 14:33:42

All the “promises” in the world don’t mean crap when there’s no money to pay them back.

Well we can always print more money. But all the promises in the world don’t mean crap when there isn’t enough human food for everyone. Sorry, Rover and Snowball. Time to go catch your own.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-10-19 08:27:54

Are these sweet government jobs with the cushy early retirement benefits and, according to many bitter posters here, low work requirements, available to anyone who wants one? If this seems unfair, why not stop complaining and get yourself one of these gravy train positions?

Comment by rj not in chicago anymore
2017-10-18 15:07:25

2 B -
Did you happen to see Mayor Tiny Dancer Rahm’s budget discussion - now proposing tax increases on Uber and phones (again!!).
This folks is why I vacated that steaming cess pool of corruption and incompetence. Rummy is out of his friggin mind!!! And the folks there just continue to talk it up the you know what…
Mayor Rahm Emanuel on Wednesday began selling his latest round of tax and fee hikes, thanking “taxpayers for doing their part to solve Chicago’s financial problems” and warning aldermen that “now is not the time to take our eye off the ball.”

The mayor’s lengthy budget speech to the City Council was mostly a recitation of the progress he says Chicago has made in the last year, from taking on President Donald Trump on immigration to winning more money for Chicago Public Schools out of Springfield.

Chicago has not let those headwinds shift us off course,” the mayor said. “We charted a better course.”

But the purpose of Wednesday’s council meeting was for Emanuel to introduce his 2018 budget blueprint. The $8.6 billion plan would spend about $289 million more than this year. It includes a $1.10-a-month increase in the 911 phone tax — for cellphones and land lines — to balance the budget, and a 15-cent fee hike for Uber and Lyft rides to pay for CTA upgrades.

The mayor also wants to increase the amusement tax to 9 percent from 5 percent on concerts, comedy shows and plays in venues with more than 1,500 seats to raise $15.8 million a year. Ticket buyers at venues with 750 to 1,500 seats, who are now paying the 5 percent tax, wouldn’t have to anymore.

In addition, Chicago property owners will be hit with a previously approved $63 million city property tax increase next year, the fourth and final consecutive annual hike in that levy approved in 2015 to dramatically increase annual contributions to the pension funds for police officers and firefighters. That doesn’t include a total CPS tax increase of $224.5 million.

Taken together, those hikes could boost local property tax bills by more than $230, but a newly increased homeowners exemption approved in August by state lawmakers at Emanuel’s request would lower the bill on a $250,000 home by about $148 next year, city financial spokeswoman Molly Poppe said.

And the article goes on from there to explain even more tax rises.

Comment by cactus
2017-10-19 08:57:34

This folks is why I vacated that steaming cess pool of corruption and incompetence. ”

Smart but I predict it will spread to other states , slow but still spreading.

Comment by aNYCdj
2017-10-19 05:41:12

I still think blaming he pensioners for quitting smoking and living a longer healthier lifestyle, is the key to slashing benefits.

Just tell them we thought 50,000 of you would be dead by now from lung cancer and the pension system would still be solvent

Comment by 2banana
2017-10-18 10:19:54

The October 1st deadline has passed. The consequences are shortly coming. Especially to those with lots of debt that is leveraged (housing).

Very good power point presentation.

“will create a liquidity withdrawal of over $1 trillion in 2018 alone.”


$1 Trillion In Liquidity Is Leaving: “This Will Be The Market’s First Crash-Test In 10 Years”
ZeroHedge - Oct 18, 2017

In his latest presentation, Francesco Filia of Fasanara Capital discusses how years of monumental liquidity injections by major Central Banks ($15 trillion since 2009) successfully avoided a circuit break after the Global Financial Crisis, but failed to deliver on the core promise of economic growth through the ‘wealth effect’, which instead became an ‘inequality effect’, exacerbating populism and representing a constant threat to the status quo.

However as Filia, and many others before him, writes, only when the tide goes out, will we discover who has been swimming naked, and how big of a momentum/crowding trap was built up in the process. The undoing of loose monetary policies (NIRP, ZIRP), and the transitioning from ‘Peak Quantitative Easing’ to Quantitative Tightening, will create a liquidity withdrawal of over $1 trillion in 2018 alone. The reaction of the passive community will determine the speed of the adjustment in the pricing for both safe and risk assets.

And, echoing what Deutsche Bank said last week, when it warned that central bank liquiidty injections will collapse from $2 trillion now to 0 in 12 months, a “most worrying” turn of events, Fasanara doubles down that “such liquidity withdrawal will represent the first real crash-test for markets in 10 years.”

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-10-18 10:47:41

However as Filia, and many others before him, writes, only when the tide goes out, will we discover who has been swimming naked,

So we’ll just pump enough water around to counteract the tides.

Comment by Neuromance
2017-10-18 16:39:16

Interesting possibility. There’s always the Irving Fisher that stocks “have reached a permanently high plateau” mentality. But people don’t really believe the world’s central banks will let their stock, bond or real estate markets tank. And how much does it really take to create that updraft that sucks in new money, buoying markets sufficiently to create a bubble?

Things are always changing. Hard science is always discovering new things. I’m not sure they’ve discovered that much new about money and the human psyche. At the center of the current policy manual is that old siren song - debt and money printing will bring effortless and easy prosperity. Is there some expert way to do this to achieve the end, or is this just the pursuit of a will-o-the-wisp? Alchemy?

One of the most brilliant people in history, Isaac Newton, was an alchemist. Levers and gears do the miraculous - allow a tiny force to move huge masses. I suppose that is what is sought here. Not sure they found it.

Comment by Neuromance
2017-10-18 18:32:12

Granted, they can always claim that prosperity wasn’t their goal. That only preventing deflation was their goal, to prevent “debt deflation” into depression, another Fisher conjecture.

And yet, what they did, extracting vast purchasing power from the public and directing it to the FIRE sector, with the goal of preventing a greater economic collapse, could never have been achieved by outright taxation. I don’t think revolution but almost certainly social unrest. Occupy Wall Street sparked at that time but quickly fizzled out in a puff of dreadlocks and drum circles.

Bernanke’s semi-famous speech on the occasion of Milton Friedman’s 90th birthday is informative. The core claim is reducing the money supply (aka “tightening monetary policy”) sparked the Great Depression and increasing it, mitigated it. While it’s hard to pin down an economist of a specific, black and white policy prescription, they do have them, held closely to the vest, and do implement them. And we saw that as they nearly doubled it (or more, depending on measure) from 2007 to the present. Here is a description of the various measures of the money supply from the New York Fed. Below are links to those charts:

Monetary Base: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE
Adjusted Monetary Base: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BASE
M2 chart: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2

Krugman claims the Fed does not control the money supply. I don’t follow. Linked if you can make sense of it. I think he may be referring to the M2 velocity which tracks very closely what he claims to be M2, but is actually M2 divided by the monetary base. You can see it clearly the similarity if you open two browser screens.

Understanding the philosophy of the next Fed chair will inform how they choose to operate.

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Comment by Econ_Teacher
2017-10-19 07:01:29

The CB unwinding is the incentive for the nonstop BTFATH or be left out of the stock market forever, Joe 6-pack, propaganda blaring 24/7. Maybe it’s a good thing Joe’s broke and has nothing left to invest at the end of the mobth. Imagine if he could use leverage and fractional reserve banking the way the Masters of the Universe do.

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Comment by MightyMike
2017-10-18 13:20:31

failed to deliver on the core promise of economic growth through the ‘wealth effect’, which instead became an ‘inequality effect’, exacerbating populism and representing a constant threat to the status quo.

The wealth effect was only a secondary effect. Using the term “exacerbating populism” makes it sound as if populism is bad thing.

Comment by Neuromance
2017-10-18 16:26:37

In his latest presentation, Francesco Filia of Fasanara Capital discusses how years of monumental liquidity injections by major Central Banks ($15 trillion since 2009) successfully avoided a circuit break after the Global Financial Crisis, but failed to deliver on the core promise of economic growth through the ‘wealth effect’, which instead became an ‘inequality effect’, exacerbating populism and representing a constant threat to the status quo.

The Fed doesn’t ramp up its production of goods or services, or financial products in these injections. It redistributes purchasing power by the trillions. And then companies configure themselves to most efficiently soak up that largesse.

The reason there is such care being taken to select a new Fed chief is because that person will the redistributor-in-chief.

Comment by Mike
2017-10-18 20:29:21

Neuromance, thanks for your comments, very interesting points.
I think the fact that the ECB and BOJ are still cranking the printing presses is actually allowing the Fed to tighten. All that cash in search of a parking spot may even allow the Fed to do 3 or 4 more hikes as well as sell some of the balance sheet without much effect (the hikes so far have not slowed any of the bubbles).
But if they all stop printing…the “normalization” charade be will exposed for what it is. A yen and euro financed illusion

Comment by Rental Watch
2017-10-19 19:33:01

What do you think about the $2T of excess reserves that simply never made it into the real economy? It seems to me that before any tightening by reversing QE will need to first drain this $2T from excess reserves.

Your points about the ECB and BOJ may also be true…making it possible for the Fed to tighten even beyond the draining of the excess reserves without much impact on long-term rates.

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Comment by 2banana
2017-10-18 10:30:02


What will happen:

1. Not going to give it away

2. Chase the market down

3. Repeat to Step 1


“‘We are approaching a tipping point,’ Lawrence Bowles, a residential research analyst at broker Savills Plc said. ‘We have seen transactions in London fall, particularly for home movers since the great financial crisis. Eventually you get to a point where people are fed up waiting and accept a price cut to get a sale.’”

Comment by Apartment 401
Comment by jeff
2017-10-18 11:30:05

“You have white guys telling a brown guy from the projects what to do in the community he grew up in,” said Joel Garcia, director of programs at Self Help Graphics and Art

“The Lord loves a working man, don’t trust whitey, see a doctor and get rid of it.”


Comment by ibbots
2017-10-18 11:04:06

Dallas-Fort Worth apartment rent increases slowed to a crawl in September. Average D-FW area rents were up 1.9 percent from September 2016. That’s just a third of average annual rent gains in the last few years, according to a report from Richardson-based Axiometrics.

Dallas-area rents averaged $1,151 last month, and in Fort Worth the average was $1,052. North Texas rents remain well below the national average of $1,293, according to the apartment analyst.


Comment by BlackSwanDive
2017-10-18 11:06:11

“…monumental liquidity injections by major Central Banks ($15 trillion since 2009) successfully avoided a circuit break after the Global Financial Crisis, but failed to deliver on the core promise of economic growth through the ‘wealth effect’, which instead became an ‘inequality effect’, exacerbating populism and representing a constant threat to the status quo…”

Truer words were never spoken. “Inequality effect.” This has been evident ever since the inception of trickle-down economics. Newsflash: Bankers, politicians and the entire ptb know this. They DON’T CARE. Follow the money.

Comment by 2banana
2017-10-18 12:03:08


Maybe the MID will get repealed after all.

“The remarkable thing about the Republican trending states is that they have moved steadily ever since last November, in almost every case without a single break. Democrats continue to lose voters, and they are not becoming independents. All of this appears to be due to Trump and Trump alone, as the Republican Party has not offered any reasons to embrace it.”


DATA: Blue States Getting Redder and Red States Getting Redder
Big League Politics | 10/18/2017 | Larry Schweikart

October’s voter registration changes measured against last November continue to show Republican strength, almost across the board. Certainly in the “battleground” states, the Democrats are looking at a very bleak picture.

*FL Rs net +61,857 Since the election, Republicans have seen a net shift of nearly 62,000 in their direction. This represents a further net gain of about 6,000 since my last report, meaning that Republicans are gaining ground at the rate of about 6,000 per month. If this were to hold through 2020, Florida would be a Republican state.

*NC Rs net +61,752 This is up another 1,000 since last month, and shows the Tar Heel State continues to turn back to the Republican Party as the Democrats are losing significant registrations. When combined with the 2016 3% black voting shortfall, North Carolina presents another bleak picture for the Democrats in the near future.

*PA Rs net +109,101 Pennsylvania’s shocking march away from the Democrats is breathtaking: Democrats were down another 22,000 since last month and Republicans are surging. Once again, Pennsylvania’s numbers likely speak to Michigan.

And, a reminder that in my last report, NH was R net +6,511 and ME was R net +1,201.

In short, among the truly contested states in 2016, the only ray of hope for the Democrats is Colorado, and even there, the trends have flattened some. They have stabilized New Jersey and Delaware, but Republicans continue to gain significant ground in Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and above all, Pennsylvania. If these trends continue through 2020, Florida would be have a slight Republican registration edge, North Carolina would be nearly even, and New Mexico would be close enough that it could never be taken for granted. Moreover, Pennsylvania and Iowa would be solid Trump states.

Comment by CHE
2017-10-18 12:22:30

Do you think some of this could the outflow of Republicans from places like Commie-fornia? (At least FL and NC)

Comment by BlackSwanDive
2017-10-18 12:48:43

Not really, because otherwise the blue states would be getting bluer.

IMO, the Demorats have screwed the pooch and gone waayyyy overboard with all of their holier than thou sheet, hypocrisies, illegal immigration support, race-baiting narratives, corruption, and a whole lot else you can throw in there.

There’s still a substantial population of whites in this country, and they’re abandoning that party in droves right now.

Comment by oxide
2017-10-19 06:15:59

Agree. If you ask me, Hillary’s loss was due more to the pious virtue signaling than to anything Comey ever did.

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Comment by BlueSkye
2017-10-19 06:43:51

The fact that a lot of people are sick of the corrupt elite establishment had something to do with it.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-10-19 12:12:43

If you ask me, Hillary’s loss was due more to the pious virtue signaling than to anything Comey ever did.

Maybe. But Hillary’s problems go back at least to 1994. None of her fans seem to understand that. Conservatives have long memories. That’s part of what makes them conservative I think.

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-10-18 12:58:05

Colorado is cucked.

Comment by In Colorado
2017-10-18 21:09:28

Denver is cucked.

Comment by redmondjp
2017-10-18 21:50:28

Not if they get Amazon’s HQ2.

I was in Denver this morning. You know who rented a small conference room in my hotel? Hmmm . . .

And all they need to do is to raise the tax on the skunky weed and profit!!!!

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Comment by taxpayers
2017-10-18 17:25:17

imagine if he stayed on topic

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-10-19 08:17:39

“Maybe the MID will get repealed after all.”

I don’t get what your post has to do with repealing the MID.

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-10-18 12:15:41

Remember….. A mortgage is the most accurate indicator of financial insufficiency and indigence.

Comment by Apartment 401
2017-10-18 13:49:50

Realtors are liars.

Comment by MightyMike
2017-10-18 13:23:20

White House Push to Help Workers Through Corporate Tax Cut Draws Skepticism

OCT. 17, 2017

WASHINGTON — The White House inflated the potential benefits to workers from a proposed corporate tax cut, according to a Harvard University economist whose work informed the estimate, highlighting a challenge Republicans face as they push a tax rewrite that President Trump has promised will benefit the middle class.

Mr. Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers said in a report released on Monday that reducing corporate taxes could raise average household incomes by as much as $9,000 a year. The top end of that estimate was based on work by a trio of researchers, and on Tuesday one of them, Mihir Desai of Harvard, said Mr. Trump’s team had misread the research. The actual income gain implied by his study, he estimated, would be $800.

Mr. Trump’s economic team disagreed — saying Mr. Desai had erred in interpreting his own paper.


Comment by junior_kai
2017-10-18 14:26:18

Ha ha, always spouting off nonsense. News flash - no one - except you and scdecrepitdave believe in that bilge you pump out daily.

Yeah, the masses are really skeptical of a corporate tax cut - cuz’ the govt is doing wonders with all the $$$ we send them!

Comment by rj not in chicago anymore
2017-10-18 15:23:28

Guys an Gals.
I may be spending a bit more time on the HBB - let go after a year working her in Denver, so…..I have a lot of time on my hands at the moment.

I say this cause I have not been on here regularly for a very long time and I find that I really like how the QUALITY of the content and commentary has improved in my intervening 15 mos+ away. Amazing what a little perspective will do, no?

And re the job - glad I got the axe - the environment was one of the most spiritually dark places I have ever been in. Back in the light folks, back in the light.


Comment by jeff
2017-10-18 15:30:16

“let go after a year working her in Denver,”

I wasn’t sure what this story was about until I got to…

“And re the job - glad I got the axe”

Comment by palmetto
2017-10-18 16:21:40

Have you got enough to sit tight until you get another gig?

Comment by taxpayers
2017-10-18 17:28:54

hope u have ample coin

Comment by jeff
2017-10-18 17:53:41

Coin or not it sounds like a good place to have moved on from, life is short.

“the environment was one of the most spiritually dark places I have ever been in. Back in the light folks, back in the light.”

Good Luck rj

Comment by Mr. Banker
2017-10-19 05:14:57

“… the environment was one of the most spiritually dark places I have ever been in.”

Which bank did you work for?

Comment by Econ_Teacher
2017-10-19 07:04:01

You should take your show on the road, Mr. Banker.

Comment by oxide
2017-10-19 06:18:49

If anything, the it’s the content of other news sites comment sections which have gone into the toilet. If I had a nickel for each post which taunted “Go educate yourself…”

Comment by azdude
2017-10-18 16:32:19

How did u guys like big blues bs earnings report? They can sure spin some data cant they?

Comment by palmetto
2017-10-18 16:33:22

Has anyone here ever lived in or been to Dubai? If so, could you tell me what the attraction is? I don’t know anything about it, but from a distance, it seems like a really hot, uncomfortable, dusty place. I guess if you’re in the oil business it makes sense, but are there enough people in the oil business to justify all that building?

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-10-18 16:47:32

Add enough money and anything can start to look nice. You just never go outside.

Comment by Ben Jones
2017-10-18 16:53:05

‘Dubai is the largest and most populous city in the United Arab Emirates…Dubai emerged as a global city and business hub of the Middle East…The Emirate’s Western-style model of business drives its economy with the main revenues now coming from tourism, aviation, real estate, and financial services.[11][12][13] Dubai was recently named the best destination for Muslim travellers by Salam Standard.[14] Dubai has recently attracted world attention through many innovative large construction projects and sports events. The city has become iconic for its skyscrapers and high-rise buildings, in particular the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa.’

‘As of 2012, Dubai was the 22nd most expensive city in the world and the most expensive city in the Middle East.[18][19] In 2014, Dubai’s hotel rooms were rated as the second most expensive in the world, after Geneva.[20] Dubai was rated as one of the best places to live in the Middle East by U.S. global consulting firm Mercer.’


Plus there’s booze there, but Muslims aren’t supposed to drink. I know a guy who’s been there and drank with Muslims in hotels.

Comment by palmetto
2017-10-18 17:19:09

OK, so in Dubai, you can drink, go to sports events and hang out in a skyscraper. Sounds like a number of cities in the US. More Muslims, I guess, but that wouldn’t be a draw for me.

Besides, they don’t have Bob’s River Place, the greatest water park in America you’ve never heard of.


Way down upon the Suwanee Riverrrrrrrr!

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Comment by Ben Jones
2017-10-18 21:21:24

’so in Dubai, you can drink, go to sports events and hang out in a skyscraper. Sounds like a number of cities in the US’

What does Vegas have other than gambling?

Comment by redmondjp
2017-10-18 21:53:45

Come on now Ben - the big shows! I don’t like Celine Dion that much but the missus does, so we went. Wow, what a production. I still want to see the Beattles Love show as well.

Comment by rms
2017-10-19 00:02:07

“What does Vegas have other than gambling?”

Nellis Air Force Base drone operations via fiber optic cable running to Diego Garcia then it’s satellite command link.

Comment by Carl Morris
2017-10-19 12:14:18

What does Vegas have other than gambling?

If you go outside and squint you can almost imagine you’re in Dubai?

Comment by Mafia Blocks
2017-10-19 12:53:43

No more than a Debt Donkey or HousingHen hen can read the housing bubble blog without descending into a fit of rage.

Comment by Al
2017-10-18 19:07:57

Visited briefly. Great place to buy gold. My understanding is that they’re going to run out of oil sooner than you’re average middle eastern nation and want to diversify.

Comment by BlackSwanDive
2017-10-18 17:00:43

Does anybody else find it nauseating how Amazon has cities all over the country groveling for their additional headquarters? There’s always a photo of that idiot Bezos with that obnoxious grin you just want to slap off his face. There’s such a massive unemployment problem in this country that cities and towns are forced to try to whore themselves out to stem the bleeding.

Comment by BlueSkye
2017-10-18 17:12:12

It’s like the Olympics. Winning is a bankruptcy.

Comment by palmetto
2017-10-18 17:27:37

Same thing used to be with the NFL. Bring your team to our city and we will build you a stadium at taxpayer expense!

As Ben knows, I’m not eggzackly Jeff’s biggest fan.

Comment by jeff
2017-10-18 19:33:10

What a gullible crowd.

Richard Spencer and his background are as made up as Forest Gump.

Follow Spencer or any “Unite the Right” leader around for a year and you will find the only crowd or coverage they ever have is when Soros pays for it.

Comment by azdude
2017-10-19 07:31:19

10 years of a bull market. It is just amazing. It is awesome we can inflate asset prices and buy manufactured goods from around the world. They do the dirty work and we create cash.

Comment by Professor 🐻
2017-10-19 08:34:33

We seem to be on the right side of the trade, so long as you don’t mind consuming cheap crap made overseas. It’s a really sweet deal for importers with a lock on the market for cheap imported crap.

Comment by Senior Housing Analyst
2017-10-19 08:15:16

Bend, OR Housing Prices Crater 12% YOY


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