The Supply Surge Is Becoming The New Normal
A report from Bisnow on Virginia. “The Fairfax County submarkets of Reston and Tysons, both emerging areas boosted by the opening of Metro’s Silver Line, have pipelines full of new apartment construction. Several top developers at Bisnow’s Fairfax County State of the Market, worried they might be building too many rental units. JBG Smith Executive Vice President of Development Greg Trimmer said apartment rents in Reston are flat, and in some cases slightly negative, due to the amount of new multifamily construction. But he said the problem is worse in Tysons, where millions of square feet of development is underway around its four Silver Line stations. ‘In Reston we’re a little sick, but Tysons is in hospice in terms of the glut of apartments,’ Trimmer said. ‘They’ve way overbuilt.’”
“Also at the Wiehle-Reston East station, Bozzuto recently delivered Aperture, a 421-unit apartment building. Bozzuto Senior Vice President Mike Henehan said Reston is not alone in welcoming a glut of new apartment buildings, and said the supply surge is becoming the ‘new normal’ across the region. Still, he said Bozzuto has achieved annual rent increases of 1% to 1.5% across its Reston portfolio.”
“MRP Realty principal John Begert said he is optimistic about the area’s future, but does not expect to see notable rent growth in Tysons over the next three to four years, making it difficult to underwrite new apartment projects. ‘If you’re a family office or you have patient capital, in 10 to 12 years you’re going to love it,’ Begert said. ‘But to try to see legitimate rent growth soon, I think you’re kind of fooling yourself.’”
The Miami Herald in Florida. “According to a mid-2017 market study released by the Miami Downtown Development Authority (DDA), rent prices are stable, development is being balanced with demand and financial institutions have raised their requirements for loans — all indicators that the city’s downtown area is on stable long-term footing. Overall, the volume of condo sales was down 50 percent from the previous two years. According to Cranespotters.com, more than 3,600 existing condo units are currently on the market in the downtown area — a 26-month supply (six months is considered the ideal amount of inventory).”
“In other words, it’s a good time to buy. ‘Asking prices are steadying out, and with that kind of inventory on hand, now’s the time to look and find a motivated seller,’ said Chris Zoller, a Realtor at EWM Realty and 2017 chairman of the Miami Association of Realtors.”
From Greenwich Time in Connecticut. “On the surface, Greenwich’s high-end housing market seems to be staging a comeback. These favorable numbers portraying a market on the upswing surprised Jackie Hammock of Coldwell Banker’s Greenwich offices while completing her own third-quarter market report. ‘I started my analysis feeling like the market was terrible in the third quarter, yet when I looked at the overall numbers, everything was good,’ she said. ‘Based on my listings and meetings I’ve been in, it seemed like fewer people were walking around to showings and stuff; yet sales showed the average price was up for the quarter and up for year-to-date,’ Hammock said. ‘So I started digging to see what’s going on.’”
“Hammock said she found 11 homes in the third quarter that sold with ‘huge reductions,’ she said. ‘The more I got into it the more it screamed out to me. Some people were at the point that they had to dump the house.’ An extreme example includes a home on Upper Cross Road for which its owner paid $13.5 million in 2012, according to Greenwich property records, but it closed for just $7.5 million in September. Another property on Lake Avenue was originally listed for more than $10 million, according to Hammock, but it closed for several million less.”
“We did have big sales that pulled up our stats, but it’s when you look at what’s underneath that it’s not as fine,’ she said.”
“Sellers who unloaded their homes for less than they originally listed it, or maybe even bought it for, represent the trend that sellers are finally ‘more willing to meet at market price,’ said Peter Janis of Berkshire Hathaway N.E. Properties. From his experience, many of them ’say ‘It is what it is,’ and move forward because they’re looking at it as a business transaction. They take a loss and move to the next thing,’ he said.”
“While the number of Greenwich homes sold in the third quarter fell by almost 24 percent when compared to last year, an array of high-end sales helped raise the average sale price for the quarter by nearly 21 percent to $2.67 million, as reported by Jonathan Miller in a Douglas Elliman market analysis last week.”
“‘It’s very positive that the market is shedding its disconnect in perceived value at the high end versus what the market is willing to support,’ Miller said. ‘Part of the problem has been a lot of overpriced listings not moving. In all these luxury markets — Manhattan, Westchester, Fairfield, the North Shore and the Hamptons — it’s all the same scenario: all these listings are coming off the market because they were never in the market. The brokerage community continued to list these properties, so they became the perceived market. This is a significant improvement in conditions because what we’re having is an acknowledgment that those homes weren’t priced correctly.’”
The Real Deal on New York. “Manhattan investment-sales volumes continued to fall during the third quarter of the year, setting 2017’s total on course to be lower than it was in 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed. Commercial property sales across the borough clocked in at $4.36 billion over the past three months, a 45.4 percent decline from the same time last year, according to third-quarter figures from Cushman & Wakefield. That brings the total for the first three quarters of 2017 to $14.37 billion, or 54.6 percent below the $31.66 billion recorded during the first nine months of 2016.”
“That puts Manhattan on track in 2017 to finish below the $19.8 billion the investment sales market saw in 2008. Sales have slowed to a trickle after the market hit a peak of $59.9 billion in sales in 2015 and started to decline as buyers turned their noses up at paying record prices.”
The Union Tribune in California. “In Southern San Diego County, four sand-colored towers rise up above the natural landscape, a landmark of sorts in a sea of buildings that rarely rise above two stories. Newly built condos in the towers cost less than half of what something similar would cost a half mile away, and the amenities — 24-hour guards, gyms, Jacuzzis, tennis courts — match even the fanciest residential offerings in downtown San Diego. The catch is the condos are in Tijuana and living there means commuting and living in Mexico.”
“Condos start at $170,000 for a 950-square-foot unit and go up from there based on size and location in the building. There are 1,550-square-foot units for $280,000 and 2,000 square-foot units for $315,000. Homeowner association fees are around $200 to $250 a month, and yearly property taxes are about $200. NewCity might have been the first out the gate, but pent-up demand for new residential development in the city has led to a major condo vertical building boom. There are roughly 600 new condos expected to hit the market by the end of this year and most sell out before construction is completed.”
“Even with the ambitious building pace, it does not appear the market is anywhere near being overbuilt, said Gary London, a San Diego-based real estate consultant that also does work in Baja California. ‘There is no historical basis. They haven’t been building a lot of housing for years,’ he said. ‘(600 new condos) does not seem very high, relative to the size of the two metropolitan areas combined. The market is probably quite capable of absorbing more housing.’”
Manassas Park, VA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/manassas-park-va/home-values/
*Select median list price on drop down menu above chart
Could be from a loss of Snowflakes.
Stonewall Jackson monument will stand at Manassas Battlefield
by Potomac Local on August 17, 2017 at 4:42 pm
PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY — A monument to Confederate Gen. Thomas “Stonewall” Jackson will stand at Manassas National Battlefield Park.
The National Park Service says it, and all Confederate monuments on national park land will remain standing.
“That is the Park Service’s policy on the matter,” said Ray Brown, a spokesman for the Manassas National Battlefield Park.
The National Park Service made the determination this afternoon.
The decision comes a day after Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe issued a statement calling for the removal of Confederate statues in the state:
http://potomaclocal.com/2017/08/17/stonewall-jackson-monument-will-stand-manassas-battlefield/
Overview and History
Manassas Park was a campsite area for Confederate soldiers who fought in the First and Second Battles of Bullrun (Manassas).
https://www.cityofmanassaspark.us/about-manassas-park/overview-and-history.html
Brave men who fought for their ideas of liberty and were greatly respected by their foes on the battlefield.
We don’t agree with all of their ideas, and though my family was not in the fight they still deserve respect.
you have to walk aways to get to it. Not be urban,yo
Silver line dreams. I bet if the apartments were priced right they would fill up fast (in NoVA.)
I need to job-jump again then should be able to go for a house.
+1.
Few places are truly overbuilt compared to population. They are only overbuilt compared to price. It’s like putting 15 BMW dealerships in a blue-collar neighborhood and acting shocked when people still take the bus.
The Aperture in Reston is the usual soviet-style dark-gray boxy buildings with the usual amenities* and high price to match:
STUDIO ———- 535 Sq Ft From $1,673
1 BEDROOMS — 629 Sq Ft From $1,692
2 BEDROOMS — 1061 Sq Ft From $2,280
With two months freeeee! Yeah, sure. All that means is that the rent will jump even more after the first year.
——————
* New amenity alert: “curated artwork throughout featuring photography from Nature’s Best Photography and a custom Zachary Oxman sculpture.” Oh my. Katie bar the door. Millenials will come a-knockin’ and a-flockin’ to live near an Oxman.
A bare mortgage payment in Reston is $3300/month. Add in depreciation, taxes and insurance you’re up to $5000/month and your lights aren’t even on yet.
Solution? Rent it for half the monthly cost, buy later after prices crater for 75% less.
A one-bed condo is about $245K. At 4% down payment, the PITI/month is $1559/month, which is a little less than $1692 for a one-bed apartment. Yes, condo fees are probably a killer, but it’s a far cry from the $3300 you pulled out of your butt.
A one bedroom condo rents for $1690 a month, just like your post says.
The median in Reston is $450k or $3300/month. Depreciation, taxes and insurance puts it at $5000/monoth.
Deal with it.
HA, HA, you tell him Oxy. He likes pulling things out of his butt……but, but, but deal with it! HA, HA.
DebtDonkey
Swansea, MA Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/swansea-ma/market-trends/
I’ve been waiting for years for the prices to crater here in NoVa. Then I thought with Trump’s new budget where he was going to eliminate 200k federal jobs, it was close to coming true.
But Trump reduced Fed workforce by a whopping 13k jobs. And the majority of open houses I’ve been to I’ve seen Indians,Muslims, and Asians competing with me. As long as the Dems run DC Metro, there will never be affordable housing here. They import all sorts voters from all over the world and SOMEHOW, these people have loads of money to buy 400 -500K homes.
So disgusted with the area am contemplating giving it to the foreign invasion and moving south.
Trump wants to give boucoup bucks to the DoD, which will keep NoVa afloat long after other government centers.
The 200K jobs will be lost eventually. The Baby Boomers are finally starting to retire in droves, and they aren’t being replaced.
Heard at the pool yesterday: “Oh, there’s a whole bunch of new retirees with a TON of money from their 401ks and they can afford to pay cash for a house!”
Really, someone said that when I said a lot of retirees were losing their pensions.
What? 401Ks are not the same as pensions. And have you checked the stock market recently?
Really, someone said that when I said a lot of retirees were losing their pensions.
Nope, people will keep their pensions. It will just be that taxpayers foot the bill (instead of the pension funds, which have been dramatically underfunded).
Yes, but IIRC when the government picks up the tab, unless you’re politically connected (see GM bankruptcy), your pension will be slashed.
“…your pension will be slashed.”
Correct. You will only see a percentage of it.
***
Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation
https://www.pbgc.gov/
Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pension_Benefit_Guaranty_Corporation
‘the rent will jump even more after the first year’
I got 5 bucks that says it won’t.
It will take more than one rent cycle to get to stability.
ISTR discussing this dynamic with an apartment developer 10+ years ago.
There are young folks that hop from new apartment to new apartment to get the 1 or 2 months free.
So, they effectively only pay 85% of the going rate. When their first year is up, they move out and go to another project that is willing to give them a concession to move in.
In other words, the turnover in a new apartment project with concessions is much higher in the early years than an established project–and so it takes a little while for the occupancy to settle in, which keeps LLs from really pushing rents.
Silverline ridership is 30-35% below projections
It has way too many stops to DC -
It’s like putting 15 BMW dealerships in a blue-collar neighborhood and acting shocked when people still take the bus.
In this analogy, the bus is the alternative to the pricey BMW. In housing, the alternative to owning is renting. The problem is that rent is not all that affordable either. Rent as a % of income is at an all-time high.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2017/10/19/rising-rents-us-housing-crisis/
Maybe you can convince HA/MafiaBlocks of that. I’m not having any luck.
The BMW/bus analogy isn’t owning vs. renting. It’s building luxury Grade A apartments (BMW) vs. building Grade B apartments (Hyundai/bike.bus). If those Aperture apartments were basic built, small, no amenities except a cheap pool, and rented for, say $1100/month instead of $1700, they would have no need to offer concessions.
“analogy isn’t owning vs. renting…”
It is so very much. If you are owning/buying a house you are living in the mania. You will buy a house that is much larger than you need for yourself and rub your hands together thinking of the long term appreciation that will make you rich. You will ignore the carry cost and the possibility that you paid way more than you will get back in future. A decade or more just paying the interest on money you spent but didn’t have. You drive up prices for all the rest of us, not just housing but also other necessities.
If you rent you will try to live within your means. It will be less floor space, cause you don’t need three places to sleep and two places to take a piss. You will curse the credit bubble and the army of debtors that have driven up prices and rent. Honest earned money has a hard time competing with dumb borrowed money.
Wow, you sound like one of those fantasy-movie bad guys who makes gloomy prognostications and curses at the good guys.
Really? Because I am living within my means (honestly) I am a bad guy, and because you are a debtor speculator you are a good guy? Please do explain that.
I am thinking it is the reality check that makes me the bad guy. I could be wrong, but I don’t think so.
I mean seriously, just read your post out loud. It sounds exactly like Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God. *ahem*:
YOU will rue the day you bought house, YOU will regret depending upon depreciation, YOU will pay for living beyond your means, YOU will reap the whirlwind for ignoring carrying costs, YOU will suffer paying no principle for a decade, YOU will shrivel and burn like a maggot upon the embers having two toilets. Rend your garments and gnash your teeth, sinner, for YOU have interfered with the natural order of house prices, and YOU WILL ATONE!!!
It sounds even better if you say it in a Disney villain voice.
Of course your accuracy is way off.
Stamp those feet!
Uncle Sam has decreed that all Americans should become debt donkeys and spend the remainder of their days on the planet toiling for long hours every day of the week in order to repay the crushing debt burden.
YOU will rue the day you bought house, YOU will regret depending upon depreciation, YOU will pay for living beyond your means…
People like to feel good about themselves. It’s apparently some sort of basic human need.
“Honest earned money has a hard time competing with dumb borrowed money.”
This is especially true in an era when affordable lending programs persistently strive to put massive, unrepayable loan balances into the hands of marginally qualified borrowers.
“Honest earned money has a hard time competing with dumb borrowed money.”
Even in a conversation!
Unfortunately, as the credit bubble unwinds there will a lot of really pissed off donkeys.
The DebtDonkeys are already ragin’. You’d be too if you were standing on their hooves.
“……like Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God….”
Wow, Oxy you’re on a roll today. All those loan payments leading to 20% principal reduction over the last decade must have you feeling pretty savvy. Tossing a little “equity shade” on Blue’s sky?
DebtDonkey
Silverton, OR Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/silverton-or/market-trends/
‘he said Bozzuto has achieved annual rent increases of 1% to 1.5% across its Reston portfolio’
Sure they have, after taking a double digit hit in concessions and vacancies.
This everything bubble seems to be much worse than the previous bubble in terms of scope. Aside from crude oil not being at $145 per barrel, everything else is in the stratosphere.
The stock market bubble is of mind-blowing proportions. All of the housing prices around here are much higher than the last peak. Rents, the same. New and used car and truck prices defy logic. RV prices, both new and used, are at the highest ever.
I have to admit that I can’t really understand this anymore. I never saw the second housing bubble, or a reflation of the first, happening. This is completely new territory for mankind. Aside from some miraculous wage inflation, which the opposite seems to be happening, I don’t know how this can not end in something even worse than 2007-2008.
The massive obama deficits and the trillions of TARP, HARP, QE1, QE2, QE3, QE4, Operation Twist, etc. artificially gave the illusion of an “economy.” It was all fake.
It will send in misery, ruin and bankruptcy.
At least your eyes are open. Prepare.
As many know. I am an engineer. With a family.
I have studied this issue long and hard along.
It doesn’t mean I am right and I am still studying it every day. Still learning and listening.
But I have come up with a partial solution to what is coming.
1. Take care of your health. Exercise.
2. Stay out of debt. Live beneath your means.
3. Keep learning. Learn new skills. Learn how to fix and build things yourself. Invest in yourself.
4. Realize that government (at all levels) will lie to you. Government will not take care of you. Government will take everything you have if it means they stay in power one day longer.
5. Buy a little gold and silver. But realize that this is just a little insurance and not much else.
6. Stay far away from bubbles. Hard to do when friends and relatives are getting “rich” and think you the fool
7. Relationships are worth far more than “stuff.” Families are worth way more than “stuff.” Good people are worth more than “stuff.”
8. Enjoy life. It doesn’t take lots of money.
9. Learn how to shoot safely and have at least one gun. Even if you never touch it again.
10. Be part of “something” bigger than yourself such as a Church or a volunteer organization. All the issues we see today are the same issues seen 2000 years ago.
Feel free to add.
Thanks. I could not have said it better.
Only thing I will add is: Invest in your kids. Give them a good education. They will be the ones digging us out once the illusion ends.
“Give them a good education.”
Provide them with Safe Spaces and throw your support to No Child Left Behind.
😁
2b, I am an engineer too, at least for another 9 weeks. I like your list. I’ve done all these things myself and more. Enough to focus on #8!
I practiced some life skills this week, taking advantage of field vegetables @ $14/bu. I made up 80 pints of delicious chili in the canner for $99.
“As many know. I am an engineer. With a family.”
Same here, ditto^2
Wow…lots of propeller heads number among the HBB regulars. I am thinking about nudging one of my sons into exploring the engineering career path. Do you have any advice on how to decide on whether this is a good choice for a high school senior?
I’m an engineer with a family as well. My career advice for those with the inclination is to graduate from high school and become an electrician’s apprentice. In my state you’ll have your journeyman’s license in 4 years and you’re set. You can’t outsource those jobs either. No $200K in college debt as a bonus so if you live at home for a few years and save, buying a house before you are 30 is a real possibility.
If you truly love engineering, fine, but the bean counters rule things now and they don’t value engineers nor their contributions. I’m old enough to remember when great companies (local to me: Boeing, Fluke, Hewlett-Packard, Tektronix, etc.) had engineers as CEOs and/or in upper management roles. Sadly, those days are gone.
in my state you’ll have your journeyman’s license in 4 years and you’re set. You can’t outsource those jobs either.
A drawback I have never seen in print, which I have gleaned from talking to several electricians, plumbers, good mechanics: their bodies tend to break down at the points most stressed by whatever work they do, particularly the knees. At that point they must turn over part of their job to someone else, if their body cannot recover, or be repaired, from its breakdown. Just watching them work on my house made my knees hurt.
Even the highly educated have similar problems. A lady I know with an MSEE & several related patents had to retire very early due to back pain related to congenital malformation of some of her lower spinal bones. She is unable to sit, stand or walk for very long without developing severe back pain. Even a desk job hurts her. Most nights she is able to sleep on her back without pain. Fortunately she was aware of her back ailment decades ago & had purchased her own disability insurance years earlier. She is now living on that (tax free since she paid for the insurance herself). Her husband, also an EE, has developed severe pain & stiffness in his right arm from decades of mouse use. He is considered early retirement also. The hitch for both of them is medical insurance between now & when they turn 65, still a long way in the future for them.
If regular subjects are easy, why not shoot for something you have to work hard at to accomplish. Rather proves that you could do most things if you set your mind to it.
“Do you have any advice on how to decide on whether this is a good choice for a high school senior?”
How far has this senior made it through the math and sciences?
+10 on your list 2B….
I really like your list. I would add
11. Raise a child to adulthood
12. Build a house
13. Plant a tree and harvest the fruit
I went to a financial planning seminar last week and the very first point was invest in yourself. There is no better return in life (physical, fiscal, mental or spiritual) than taking care of yourself.
‘Mexicans are abandoning their suburban dreams and their ‘birdcage’ homes’
January 09, 2014
‘If you visit Tijuana in Mexico, you’d be unlikely to stumble upon a suburb like Villa del Prado. You would only get there by heading southeast of the city’s urban core, through miles of sparsely populated hills, junkyards and humble ranches. If you got there, you would find a small city, filled with row upon row of identical, one- and two-story units — 14,000 of them.’
‘In the past few decades, millions of Mexicans became homeowners thanks to higher salaries and government aid. The increased demand fuelled a boom of low-cost suburbs around Tijuana and other cities.’
‘Locals call the houses in this type of suburb pichoneras, or birdcages, because they’re so small. Some are only 300 square feet. Yet people bought into the idea of having their own home — even if it’s a tiny one — in a manicured neighborhood.’
‘But recently, the neighborhood has begun to deteriorate. There are abandoned and vandalized homes on nearly every street. The cul-de-sac where Betancourt lives has four abandoned homes — some with missing front doors and windows. One house is filled with trash; another has walls covered in graffiti. ‘
“People get high in these abandoned houses. They sleep in them and keep tabs on the neighbors’ comings and goings, so they can break into their homes and rob them,” says Betancourt. ‘
‘The neighborhood built on a dream of safety is now crime-ridden. And Villa del Prado isn’t alone. There are an estimated 50,000 abandoned homes in Tijuana; across Mexico, there are 600,000.’
https://www.pri.org/stories/2014-01-09/mexicans-are-abandoning-their-suburban-dreams-and-their-birdcage-homes
Failed Baja condo project haunts U.S. buyers - The San Diego Union …
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/…/sdut-baja-coastal-development-tijuana-toll-road-2...
Aug 1, 2015 - Fueled by booming U.S. real estate prices, the summer of 2005 was a … the building sits empty and unfinished at Tijuana’s southern boundary, …
Abandoned housing breeds crime, disease in Baja California
mexiconewsdaily.com/news/abandoned-homes-breed-crime-disease/
Nov 17, 2015 - Housing projects abandoned for financial reasons and the lack of amenities have become breeding … Abandoned housing in Tijuana. frontera.
Ready made solution for illegals being deported from America!
The article never gets into the reason of WHY?
My guess - cheap and easy money for an expensive (to Mexicans) of a 300 sq ft of a house.
And they just walked for numerous reasons.
For security, social, and transportation reasons, living “out of the urban core” is rarely an attractive option in Latin America. It would not surprise me if the pichonera buyers perceived the whole thing from the start as a business opportunity, quickly moved back to their former barrios, and attempted to lease the houses left behind.
The bus ride from the shack in the sticks to the maquiladora probably takes forever, and isn’t safe or convenient.
They must be building something because the wholesaler I work for sells a lot of lumber there. A rail car full a day, anyway. And truck a lot to Mexicali.
Houses aren’t make of sticks, plywood and drywall in Mexico. They’re either cardboard or bricks and mortar.
These are some tough times for many.
It is always wise to have savings. But even so - many will go deep into debt to try to recover.
Keep them in your prayers.
++++
Receding Waters in Houston Reveal Families’ Divergent Paths to Recovery
Jon Schuppe - NBC News - October 23, 2017
After surviving for nearly two months on temporary assistance checks from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, many Houstonians are facing dire choices.
Displaced renters have found themselves reliant on the whims of landlords or the generosity of friends. Homeowners without flood insurance are in a similar bind, while those who have it are waiting for their claims to go through. Some are maxing out their credit cards, or moving back into damaged houses.
The most fortunate, meanwhile — those with good insurance, a long-term place to stay and enough cash — are moving ahead with rebuilding plans. In some prosperous neighborhoods, certain homeowners aren’t bothering to wait for their insurance checks ─ if they had flood insurance at all ─ and are paying their contractors up front.
The number of high-poverty neighborhoods in the region has doubled since 1980, according to a study by PolicyLink and the University of Southern California’s Program for Environmental and Regional Equity. Another, by the Pew Research Center, ranked Houston the highest in the nation for “residential segregation by income.” A third, from the Corporation for Enterprise Development, found that more than half of Houston households, including a third of homeowners, did not have enough savings to live above the poverty line for three months if they lost their income.
The storm affected about 117,000 homes in Harris County, including 25,000 that suffered major damage. It inundated many areas that weren’t designated as being in a 100-year floodplain, which meant that homeowners weren’t required to have federally backed flood insurance. An estimated 45 percent of Houston households that flooded during Harvey earned less than $50,000, according to a Kinder Institute analysis. About 15 percent earned more than $150,000.
Thousands of Harvey’s victims are now scrambling for a piece of a $15 billion federal relief package, a pot that must be shared with survivors of other disasters this year. More than 411,418 Harvey victims have applied for assistance from FEMA, which has given out $591 million to cover their short-term needs, from hotel rooms to personal property replacement to home repairs — about $1,400 per applicant.
Harrison’s lament describes one of the biggest challenges of post-disaster recovery: whether victims can find a place to live during the months it typically takes for insurance claims to be processed or to receive long-term assistance.
“If you don’t have a savings account, and don’t get a loan or borrow from family, you’re at the mercy of those grants,” said Michelle Whetten, a Gulf Coast-based vice president at Enterprise Community Partners, a nonprofit that pushes for more affordable housing in places wrecked by natural disasters. “Whereas a family with means can start making those repairs right away.”
Peña had no insurance when Harvey flooded her new rental house in Houston’s Near Northside. A single mother of a 7-year-old boy, she lost almost everything, and ended up at her parents’ house nearby. FEMA turned her down for property damage assistance, but gave her $2,452 in emergency aid.
The anguish is not limited to the lower ends of the economic scale. Some of the worst flooding from Hurricane Harvey occurred in Houston’s middle-class West Side neighborhoods, where bayous overflowed and reservoirs were deliberately emptied by officials in order to avoid a catastrophic collapse.
Their midcentury home was heavily damaged in a 2015 flood, and they completely renovated it. The mortgage was almost paid off when Harvey wrecked it again, a loss that they are still trying to come to terms with.
“Now you have to come to grips with we have car notes again, we’re going to have a house note for another 15 years probably,” he said. “But you just do it. It’s a part of life. You get up, you go, you make it happen.”
The only tools you really need to repair your flood damaged house to make it temporarily liveable are a utility knife, a hammer, a prybar/demo tool, some contractor grade garbage bags, and regular household cleaning supplies like a broom, a mop and stuff.
Simply cut out the drywall a bit above the high water mark and remove all of it, bagging it up and sending it off to the dump. Throw away wet insulation as well. Get rid of all the ruined household items, too. Then, just clean the place up inside, allowing it to dry out. You could sleep in a sleeping bag on an egg crate or air mattress.
“a utility knife…”
I’m going out on a limb and guessing that you’ve never been through this yourself.
Yes, I’ve done flood remediation.
I was having trouble imagining cutting installed drywall with a utility knife around a whole house. It would take a dozen passes with the knife wouldn’t it? I think my arm would fall off. I’d use a rotozip for any cuts I could unless the sheet was on the cutting table.
A good old utility knife is what we used most often. Less dust, and it cuts easily.
Yes, it’s amazing what a sharp blade can do. I buy blades by the 100-pack and am not afraid to change one when it gets dull.
A good old utility knife is what we used most often. Less dust, and it cuts easily.
Just reading this makes my carpal tunnels ache.
Astros to win the series because of this. Once you realize sports is rigged, you start to see patterns. Hey, I predicted the cubs last time!
2banana’s Rule:
Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh*t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy
Democrats in power will raise taxes to infinity before one insane public pensions is cut by even a dollar
There is no hope to turn this around. Lord help you if you own house in Chicago. Get out.
++++++
Fifty Shades of Rahm
Chicago Tribune | 10/19/2017 | John Kass
“I don’t look to just raise taxes,” he told the Tribune’s Editorial Board this week after proposing even more tax increases. “I look at what do we need to do, what helps us grow the economy, what improves quality of life and then measure pain versus pleasure.”
Chicago taxpayers have been hit hard in the past few years, from hundreds of millions of dollars in property taxes for Chicago Public Schools to hundreds of millions of dollars in city property taxes, millions in water taxes and fees on just about everything.
Emanuel has raised taxes in six of his last seven budgets, and now more taxes, including an increase in the 911 surcharge from $3.90 per phone line to $5. The increase would reportedly go to modernize the emergency and non-emergency calling systems.
Emanuel budget raises taxes for 6th time in 7 years »
After releasing the budget this week, the mayor was asked if he’s ever going to stop raising taxes. He just couldn’t say.
Emanuel is right about the crap sandwich. Mayor Richard M. Daley spent the city into fiscal insolvency, agreeing to unsustainable pension deals with public workers, and spending, spending, spending.
In a smart feature on the Tribune’s “Morning Spin,” it was noted that Rahm has a way of telling taxpayers what he’s doing with their money — after he squeezes it out of them.
He “invests” it.
Emanuel used the word “invest” some 31 times releasing his new budget this week, which, like his other budgets, whacks the heck out of taxpayers.
In Chicago, they call it “fairness.”
But they don’t revolt. They take it and take it some more. Or they leave, quietly.
Then they deserve what they get. Of course, I’m told that’s what you have to pay to live in “The City”, but that somehow, it’s worth it. Museums, restaurants, theater, etc, somehow justify it.
Teachers got 17% raise= doom
For the chillens
The teachers indoctrinate the children. This pays healthy dividends for the political party willing to woo them.
I have great respect for teachers, and I hope the best will teach. But I have no illusions about the extracurricular components either.
None will use the crash or depression word.
And this bubble popping is just starting.
What was that quote “a slow easing back to normal…” ?
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Commercial property sales across the borough clocked in at $4.36 billion over the past three months, a 45.4 percent decline from the same time last year, according to third-quarter figures from Cushman & Wakefield. That brings the total for the first three quarters of 2017 to $14.37 billion, or 54.6 percent below the $31.66 billion recorded during the first nine months of 2016.”
“That puts Manhattan on track in 2017 to finish below the $19.8 billion the investment sales market saw in 2008. Sales have slowed to a trickle after the market hit a peak of $59.9 billion in sales in 2015 and started to decline as buyers turned their noses up at paying record prices.”
An honest man in the fake legacy news media?
Back to plantation!!!!
Groupthink - how bubbles happen too
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Former NPR CEO Actually Spends Time With Evangelicals, Republicans; Discovers Media Bias
Christian Post | 10/23/2017 | Anugrah Kumar
Ken Stern, the former CEO of National Public Radio, spent a year venturing “out from my overwhelmingly Democratic neighborhood” by meeting Republicans and attending evangelical church services, which led him to his discovery of “an America far different from the one depicted in the press.”
“When you are liberal, and everyone else around you is as well, it is easy to fall into groupthink on what stories are important, what sources are legitimate and what the narrative of the day will be,” he explained, noting that most reporters and editors are liberal.
Stern spent many Sundays in evangelical churches and even “hung out with 15,000 evangelical youth at the Urbana conference,” which is one of the largest student missions conferences in the world.
“At Urbana, I met dozens of people who were dedicating their lives to the mission, spreading the good news of Jesus, of course, but doing so through a life of charity and compassion for others: staffing remote hospitals, building homes for the homeless …”
Stern also tried his hand at pig hunting with a family from Georgia. “None of my new hunting partners fit the lazy caricature of the angry NRA member. Rather, they saw guns as both a shared sport and as a necessary means to protect their families during uncertain times,” he stated, and admitted that “media is obsessed with the gun-control side and gives only scant, mostly negative, recognition to the gun-rights sides.”
The author expressed concern over the fact that “more than 65 percent of voters think there is a lot of fake news in the mainstream media and that our major media institutions are seen as creating, not combatting, our growing partisan divide.”
Stern suggested that media can’t cover America “from the Acela corridor,” and should, therefore, “get out and be part of the conversations that take place in churches and community centers and town halls.”
The 2nd Amendment is about hunting tyrannical pigmen, not pigs.
Yet despite 200 million guns the tyrannical pigmen have been running their rackets unchecked. Maybe voting out the pigmen’s political henchmen and enablers would be a lot more useful than Old Betsy hanging above the mantle.
Neptune Beach, FL Housing Prices Crater 8% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/neptune-beach-fl/market-trends/
No “pent-up demand” happening here:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-23/americans-are-retiring-later-dying-sooner-and-sicker-in-between
“Here are the stats: The U.S. age-adjusted mortality rate—a measure of the number of deaths per year—rose 1.2 percent from 2014 to 2015, according to the Society of Actuaries. That’s the first year-over-year increase since 2005, and only the second rise greater than 1 percent since 1980.
At the same time that Americans’ life expectancy is stalling, public policy and career tracks mean millions of U.S. workers are waiting longer to call it quits. The age at which people can claim their full Social Security benefits is gradually moving up, from 65 for those retiring in 2002 to 67 in 2027.”
Technically, the increase in age-adjusted mortality rate implies a decreased life expectancy. It’s a situation that only an actuary could love, as later retirements coupled with earlier deaths translate into a reduction in pension liability.
The mortality rate is going parabolic as 70 million boomers die off. The untold story? They leave 35 million excess empty houses (in addition to the 25 million excess, empty and defaulted houses already out there) as the population growth falls to the lowest level in US history.
Those 35 million houses are:
*In a bad location like the Rust Belt or high-tax New England
*Too small (think 11 sq ft 1970s split level)
*Are in a decrepit condition (Grandma’s SS can’t maintain a house)
*Or the grandparents sold out and moved to a condo in Fl or AZ long ago.
Or were you expecting those folks to leave their kids a pristine 4/3 in Denver or Austin?
They’re all across the nation. And you’re forgetting about the current 25 million extra houses out there.
” the Rust Belt…Too small (think 11 sq ft …Are in a decrepit condition”
Very dismissive Oxy. How big is your shack? I’m in the post Victorian industrial region and it is very close to paradise. I’m in a little 2000 ft2 house which was in an unloved condition but did a full renovation and have spent half a million less than you for comfortable shelter.
How big is my shack? Big enough to send me to hell, according to you. And no I didn’t spend a half million on it. My 23 years of payments won’t add up to a half mill.
Granted, 25+ years of maintenance + 23 years PITI will probably put me over the half-mil mark. But that’s a long time.
“will probably put me over the half-mil mark.”
Now you’re catching on.
I still think that the runup of easy credit and rampant borrowing drives up the price of houses, and eventually as the building mania gains momentum the price of energy and raw materials. This even makes the price of my tortilla go up through the roof. And yes you are on the pushing prices up team, only hoping that others will out borrow you.
One big difference between the scenarios:
Oxy will own her home free and clear in 23 years, with a net worth of 1/2 a million.
Blue will have a shoebox full of tent receipts.
DebtDonkey
Austin, TX Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/austin-tx/market-trends/
I read this article this morning too. Do you know what was cited as the bright side?
“Declining health and life expectancy are good news for one constituency: Pension plans, which must send a monthly check to retirees for as long as they live.”
The blue-collar peeps around my area still succumb to tobacco’s lethal side effects well before retirement age despite 30-years of public health pronouncements and little visible advertising.
The late retirements are also good news for the pension plans, as they allow more time for the fund to realize investment gains before payments are required.
It also gives more time for the employees to pay into the system.
However, it also usually tacks on another 2-3% to the total payment amount per year.
More years of service under a formula that doesn’t work isn’t necessarily a good thing. Sure, it’s great if people die on the job, but that’s not typically the case.
Long term, we would be better off if people retired early under the older pension agreements, and moved folks who have to live under reformed pension agreements into those jobs.
“However, it also usually tacks on another 2-3% to the total payment amount per year.”
If retirement is postponed sufficiently long, the decrease in future life expectancy will serve to reduce the lifetime payout. we
If retirement is postponed sufficiently long, the decrease in future life expectancy will serve to reduce the lifetime payout. we
This “goldilocks” scenario assumes people will act irrationally and against their personal best interest.
People in public service know exactly when they can start getting their pension benefit and how much it will be, they don’t choose to keep working blindly.
A friend of mine works for a Federal agency. He’s coming up on 20 years of service, and approaching 50 years old…he knows exactly when he can start drawing his pension, and how much it will be. If he works longer, it will be due to careful calculation of the pension benefit. He certainly won’t work until he’s 65 or 70…not a chance in hell.
You and your friend think he can outsmart the actuaries? Your friend is a fool.
sounds like a very smart guy
You and your friend think he can outsmart the actuaries? Your friend is a fool
You’re a fool if you think that pension payments to retirees have anything to do with actuarial mathematics.
sounds like a very smart guy
He’s not stupid, but at the same time, it doesn’t take a genius to do the math that I’m talking about–which is why a large number of public employees do the math and retire relatively early.
The average retirement age for public employees in CA is 60. The average retirement age for ALL employees in CA is about 64 (which includes public employees).
And you’re a fool too but we already knew that.
HA, is that you again pissing as a Mafia Block? HA, HA, HA…..you’re a funny guy.
It’s just me. Living in your head rent-free.
Charlton, MA Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/charlton-ma/market-trends/
posing….not sure how auto correct changed it…..but it works too….
DebtDonkey HousingHen.
Honolulu, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/honolulu-hi/market-trends/
‘(1600 new condos) does not seem very high, to the relative to the size of the two metropolitan areas combined. The market is probably quite capable of absorbing more housing.’
What is this guy smoking? There is no one housing market between Tijuana and San Diego, and there will be even less of a connection once the Great Wall of Trump is in place.
The article breaks down the commute time. Seems perfectly reasonable considering how much they’ll save versus a SD air box.
If I were to the point of considering commuting to Mexico, I would seriously consider if what I was doing in San Diego was worth the hassle. Hmmmm…. no thanks. I’d rather go Oil City.
Can’t surf in Oil City…..
Wouldn’t going back and forth over the border repeatedly bring DEA attention? While the scene depicted the crossing from Juarez into El Paso, I keep envisioning the shootout in “Sicario.”
The more frequently I cross our northern border, the less attention I get.
Commuters have been crossing the border into San Diego for decades. This is nothing new.
Condos for sale in 92101 (SD Marina Dist.) = 253 today. That is up 10% from 225 in May. It is down 4% from 263 last month.
I never thought about buying an ocean front condo just over the Mexico border…..I’ll check it out on the next trip.
“Hammock said she found 11 homes in the third quarter that sold with ‘huge reductions,’ she said. ‘The more I got into it the more it screamed out to me. Some people were at the point that they had to dump the house.’ An extreme example includes a home on Upper Cross Road for which its owner paid $13.5 million in 2012, according to Greenwich property records, but it closed for just $7.5 million in September. Another property on Lake Avenue was originally listed for more than $10 million, according to Hammock, but it closed for several million less.”
It’s great to hear that the Greenwich market is finally getting back to normalcy.
A loss of $1.2 million/year. It was cheaper than renting tho…
And wasn’t 2012 not far up from the “bottom” some posters here claim they bought at?
But but but…prices can’t go below the last time things turned down!
I agree Karen, 2012 was a bottom of sorts. I thought that ALL markets had risen after that, or had at least stopped falling. But there are extreme examples everywhere, I suppose.
The Greenwich corridor has been declining for a decade. GE left and took their execs, the NY financial guru industry lost jobs with Lehman’s collapse and never recovered. There are many buyer voids in that market and lots of sellers.
It’s like my grandmother’s farmhouse in South Dakota….the population of the town went from 600 to 300 over her lifetime. The 1,200 SF house sold for $2,300 and we took $300 down and $100/month for 20 months! Corporate farm consolidation and mechanization took the jobs and people away. Over supply and no demand.
Oh sure. Greenwich, CT is just like South Dakota.
Here’s the thing about Greenwich: yes, those back country mansions are taking some major hits. However, the panic buying at the lower end (one to two million, that’s the lower end, lol) is ridiculous. People are paying stupid money for 1970s ranches and split levels in the outer areas of Greenwich known as Cos Cob, Riverside and Old Greenwich.
So the “lower end” is being pumped up something ridiculous, while the high end languishes. That’s good for someone who wants some large, fancy digs, though. They can get a 5 or 6 bedroom house with acreage, a pool, three car garage, and other goodies for only a million or two more than what some schmoe is paying for a split level with a one car garage tucked underneath on a quarter of acre.
Today’s “panic buying” = tomorrow’s massive losses by “victims” of the next real estate downturn.
Here’s an example of exactly what I’m talking about:
https://www.christopherfountain.com/blog/2017/10/24/california-has-its-wildfires-back-country-greenwich-has-fire-sales
Sold for 3.3 mil. Just a mere million more than one of those raised ranches max 2500 square feet on a quarter acre not far away that sold for a couple mil.
And here’s another one:
https://www.christopherfountain.com/blog/2017/10/24/and-if-it-hasnt-quite-burned-down-yet-this-back-country-homes-price-is-heading-in-that-direction
To be fair, even if you do get a steal of a deal on one of these mansions, there’s a lot of maintenance involved that those raised ranches, split levels on 1/4 acre don’t have. Still, for someone with deep pockets who doesn’t mind a bit of faux Tudor, what’s not to like?
I’m ready for a condo on the ocean. We are selling the homestead in 2019. PB and I have a quest to see if it sells above or below the 2015 Zillow estimate.
It’s October. Must be time for the stock market to drop.
I haven’t practiced Catholicism in decades, but I’m seriously thinking of going to church and lighting a candle or two.
Carrollton, TX Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/carrollton-tx/market-trends/
Huffington Post — As Sanctuary State, California Takes Deportation Fight To New Level:
“Many states and counties already limit their cooperation with these requests, known as detainers, out of a desire to protect immigrants or because of legal concerns about being sued for civil rights violations.
More than one-fifth of the unauthorized immigrant population in the United States resides in California, [LOLZ] making it fertile ground for ICE officers. Since the enforcement agency began keeping records in 2003, some 23 percent of the agency’s detainers nationwide have been requested from California jails.”
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/as-sanctuary-state-california-takes-deportation-fight_us_59edf56de4b02c6e3c609c9d?section=us_huffpost-partners
If you like lettuce on your sandwich, it is because an immigrant likely harvested it. We need the labor pool. Crops are rotting in the field from lack of workers. Your food prices are going up….welcome to America First….first, you pay more…..
Remove all social welfare programs and tell all the urban/suburban/rural ghetto residents there’s farm jobs available if they want to work. No more Section 8 or housing allowances/rental assistance, no cash welfare payments, no Head Start or free/subsidized child care, no social workers, no heating/energy assistance programs, no food stamps, no government-subsidized or private-public partnerships of any kind.
Work or starve on the streets.
Farmworker shortage solved.
I forgot to add, no free medical care or Medicaid, no more Catholic Charities programs, and there are probably other things I am forgetting.
No more child tax credits or low income tax credits either.
Cash welfare may have diminished greatly from decades ago, but welfare in all forms is alive and well, and huge. Much of it is more hidden than it used to be, scattered in a million different programs.
There is no labor shortage, just a lot of people who find it easier to take handouts than work.
There is no labor shortage, just a lot of people who find it easier to take handouts than work.
Exactly!
Make sure you add in farm subsidies and subsidies to corporations. I could easily compile an laundry list the likes of which you’ve cited.
Why is it that every person who believes this crap also believes we need to spend billions of dollars on welfare because”there are no jobs”
“According to a mid-2017 market study released by the Miami Downtown Development Authority (DDA), rent prices are stable, development is being balanced with demand and financial institutions have raised their requirements for loans — all indicators that the city’s downtown area is on stable long-term footing.”
LORD JEEBUS A’MIGHTY!!!! Would a “study” by the Miami Downtown Development Authority possibly say otherwise than everything is awesome? I really hope they didn’t pay for this. I hope they just had some clerk in a back room write it up. Or at the very least, have some intern majoring in fake news, uh, I mean JOURNALISM, at the University of Miami pop out this piece of puffery.
Dangit, I’m so sick of this swill. I’d say I’d like to punch someone’s lights out, but that would be “toxic”.
Christopher Thornberg pens this sort of yellow journalism.
LOL, Thornberg was an oft quoted hero on this blog in 2005-2007. It’s hilarious how he called the housing bottom in 2012 and suddenly he is the HBB scourge.
Thornberg was at a crossroads… forced to make a choice. He decided that people living with mortgage debt of 8 to 12 times your income was doable and took the blue pill. Happiness.
Silverton, OR Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/silverton-or/market-trends/
https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/news/multifamily/vacant-prince-georges-county-office-building-to-be-converted-to-residential-80019
So ur bathroom is down the hall?
Office to residential conversion
when u buy a house there is an instant respect from fellow home buyers. Your part of the club.you have made it.
#Oxide ,where do u get your fed job projections?
Honest answer? Out of my butt.
now I have zero sources. All the fed blogs etc play shopping music as the axe man commeth.
I don’t think there’s much good aggregate data since individual agencies do things separately. Despite what every President says, it’s very hard to simply cut budgets and cut staff. Instead, agencies are cutting their contractors and support staff, hoping to buy time until the health problems finally force out the massive baby boomers.
Agreed. My agency just hired a bunch of newbies last fall (in anticipation of a Trump-mandated federal hiring freeze that never happened) right out of school, and now we don’t have enough work for them.
But to offset that, we have a lot of senior people retiring (and taking with them a tremendous amount of tribal knowledge that mgmt. has no clue about).
https://www.zillow.com/miami-fl/home-values/
Even zillow (schillow) calls miami lower
Feels like 2006
The rent is too damn high, worldwide.
http://www.scmp.com/property/international/article/2116710/rent-too-high-yes-most-cities-globally
“The rent is too damn high, worldwide.”
Otis! my man!
It is in SE Region IV for sure.
But without that and artificially low interest rates how else would they keep shack prices so high?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIpc_2rayFM
Austin, TX Housing Prices Crater 5% YOY
http://www.movoto.com/austin-tx/market-trends/