A Real Concern The Market Will Be Oversaturated
A report from the Austin Monitor in Texas. “Realtor Barrett Raven said he isn’t feeling the effects of a recent change playing out in the Austin area. Compared to this time last year, foreclosures in the Austin-Round Rock metro area have increased by 29 percent, according to a report out this month from the California-based research firm ATTOM Data Solutions. The group’s senior vice president, Daren Blomquist, explained. ‘This isn’t another crisis, so to speak, but we are seeing some loosening of credit that is introducing more risk, and there is this increase in the number of people falling into foreclosure,’ Blomquist said.”
“The report also notes a spike in a certain type of foreclosure – what’s known as a Federal Housing Administration loan. ATTOM says Austin is seeing an ‘11-year high’ in FHA foreclosures stemming from loans taken out in 2014. Doug Scott, a mortgage banker of over 30 years, explained that FHA loans are a government-guaranteed mortgage. The federal program was initiated in the 1930s. ‘It’s morphed over time into its present form today, where it is really designed to help first-time homebuyers get into their first home, with a relatively small amount of a down payment,’ Scott said. ‘Right now, the minimum down payment is 3.5 percent of the purchase price.’”
From the Urban Land Institute on California. “As ULI opened its 2017 Fall Meeting in Los Angeles, Robert Lowe, chairman and founder of Lowe Enterprises and the conference’s cochair, told attendees that the Los Angeles of today is much different than the L.A. that hosted ULI six years ago. Central Los Angeles is one of the hottest markets in the United States, with prices soaring, international capital flowing to projects, and more than a dozen developments under construction downtown.”
“But the panel also sounded a few cautionary notes. With so many residential towers in development, there is a real concern that the market will soon be oversaturated with luxury condominiums, panelists agreed. ‘I think there is going to be an oversupply that will take a few years to absorb at the higher end,’ Lowe said.”
“For AEG, which developed L.A. Live, the entertainment center, there is apprehension that the new projects will not generate the foot traffic necessary to support the new businesses moving into the area, said Ted Tanner, senior vice president of real estate. ‘It’s pretty scary in terms of the oversupply,’ Tanner said. ‘The big fear is that [the new condos] will sit mostly empty.’”
The Mercury News in California. “Pending home sales fell markedly across California in September, with the largest regional drop-off in the Bay Area where an ongoing housing shortage and exorbitant prices appeared to dissuade some potential buyers. That’s according to a new survey by the California Association of Realtors, which examines pending sales as a bellwether for where the housing market is headed. It didn’t provide data on closed home sales.”
“Statewide, the number of pending sales fell 6 percent on a year-over-year basis in September, while they fell 10.8 percent across the Bay Area. Locally, pending sales were down even more dramatically, falling 23.5 percent in Santa Clara County compared to September 2016 and 22.4 percent in San Mateo County.”
The Flathead Beacon in Montana. “In 2017 the overall median price of sold residential properties in Flathead County is currently $275,000. As we move up into the $1 million to $2 million dollar range, we find that this price range only accounts for 2 percent of the sales, but 14 percent of the current listings are in this price range. With only 30 sales in the last year and 147 current listings, this tells us that there is currently around 59 months of inventory of homes in the $1 million to $2 million dollar range. This segment of the market continues to be a buyer’s market.”
“For homes priced over $400,000, there is currently 18.2 months of inventory, putting these higher priced homes in a buyer’s market. The market is generally quite smart and pricing is key to getting homes sold. This is especially true in the higher price ranges because there are a lot of sellers competing for a relative few number of buyers.”
The Star Ledger in New Jersey. “It didn’t come until the 35th minute of the second gubernatorial debate, but each of the candidates finally uttered the words affordable housing and state planning. Admittedly, housing issues rarely ascend to the top of the platform for either statewide or national office, but whether you know it or not, New Jersey is in the middle of a housing crisis.”
“New Jersey is a wealthy state, ranking fourth in the nation in terms of median household income. But according to the National Low Income Housing Coalition, New Jersey ranks as the 7th most expensive state in the nation in terms of housing cost. So it’s expensive to be poor in New Jersey.”
“According to the American Community Survey, there are 3,577,942 housing units in New Jersey; 388,456 of which are recorded as vacant. That’s nearly 11 percent of the total housing stock. Adding insult to injury, New Jersey ranks second in the number of residential foreclosures in the country, with more than 72,000 housing units that are under some form of a foreclosure. Bottom line: there’s an incredible shadow inventory of homes that hangs over our state.”
‘It’s morphed over time into its present form today, where it is really designed to help first-time homebuyers get into their first home, with a relatively small amount of a down payment,’ Scott said. ‘Right now, the minimum down payment is 3.5 percent of the purchase price.’
It has morphed Doug, now anybody can get these things. We’ve seen reports out of Austin for months about prices falling. And if they weren’t falling, these defaults could be worked out by the army of fix and flippers out there. It doesn’t take much of a dip to wipe out 3%.
Falling prices and a low down payment will prevent an FB from selling the house before foreclosing, but that’s not what causes the FB to miss payments in the first place.
More likely, FBs are being wiped out by FHA fees, HOA fees, and PMI. Those can easily add up to $400-500/month on top of PITI. Of course, no Realtor will tell the FB about those, because that would instantly lower the price range that the realtor can realistically show to the buyer.
Austin is a low pay city with really high pay shack costs. FHA was just getting them on the ladder.
“no Realtor will tell the FB about those…”
I hope you’re wrong about that too.
In the buildup of the mania, people buy houses because they calculate it is going to make them a lot of money. In the deflating bubble stage, people stop making payments because they fear they are going to lose a lot of money, even if they can make the payments. We learned this a decade ago.
‘no Realtor will tell the FB about those’
I wasn’t aware UHS arranged loans. I’m sticking with the strategic default theory.
Even if the Realtor doesn’t arrange the loans, they sure as heck know about the loans and the fees. Ideally, the realtor would add the PITI to the fees to find the true howmuchamonth that the buyer can afford, and then show houses in the appropriate range. But the realtor has no incentive to do that; they collect their 3% even if the bank has to eat the default.
So you are saying there are no barriers to loaning people more than they can pay back.
So the buyer learns the true nut only at closing? Or even then? Been 15 yrs since my last one and I can’t recall.
Present law states the Alta or CD must be provided three business days prior to close. This contains all of the payment broken down if escrow is used. If you buy yourself out of escrow the fees are broken down and estimated along with PI. Proof of insurance must be provided for lenders.
“So you are saying there are no barriers to loaning people more than they can pay back.”
That is pretty much the definition of a subprime lending mania.
Montana,
The buyer will likely know about the HOA fees right around the time their offer is accepted. The buyer will not learn about the FHA fees until during the loan approval process. And that’s a diligent buyer. A lazy sign-on-the-dotted-line puke very well may not know until the closing table.
Both revelations take place AFTER the realtor shows the houses in the PITI price range, and after wifey falls in love with the house. The buyers go through with it anyway, don’t worry honey we’ll make it work, and they can’t. I think this is more likely than the couple walking away.
In my case, I didn’t know about those fees until the bank calculated HOA for me as an option. I chose the conventional loan instead.
Ben, what funny is that the banks aren’t lending more than buyers can pay back, not by strict definition of “loan.” But it’s the fees that bring people down.
I doubt that fees are calculated in that 48% LTV that FHA allows now. LTV is only the loan amount, not the total monthly nut.
IIRC, the rule of thumb used to be 28% income for housing and 36% income for total debt. I suppose the fees would be considered in calculating that. But those were only rules of thumb. I doubt those are codified into any regulations anywhere (except maybe the underwriting rules at some old-school bank).
In the buildup of the mania, people buy houses because they calculate it is going to make them a lot of money.
+infinity, Blue—they were buying them because they were going up in price faster enough that the looked free to own; i.e. the price increases exceeded the carrying costs.
More likely, FBs are being wiped out by FHA fees, HOA fees, and PMI. Those can easily add up to $400-500/month on top of PITI.
If you don’t have an extra $500/mo of cushion in your budget, you have no business buying a house in the first place.
Stack on depreciation at $3/sqft year after year and you’ve got yourself a bonfide braying DebtDonkey.
“If you don’t have an extra $500/mo of cushion in your budget, you have no business buying a house in the first place.”
“If you don’t make $50,000 a year in San Francisco then you shouldn’t live here.” —Willie Brown, former state speaker
If you don’t know enough to include these fees in your housing price calculation, you have no business even buying a house.
The realtoR is also likely to withhold information about electrical problems, water damage, leaking roofs, and his secret relationship with “the other realtor”.
Not to mention that overextended buyers will get whacked with layoffs and smaller paychecks.
“Right now, the minimum down payment is 3.5 percent of the purchase price.”
Remember….. 3.5% down payment mortgages are subprime by definition.
“According to the American Community Survey, there are 3,577,942 housing units in New Jersey; 388,456 of which are recorded as vacant. That’s nearly 11 percent of the total housing stock”.
If you want to see just how far we’ve gotten from that Constitution “paper thingy” try getting chosen for an American Community Survey. Be prepared for about 3 months (the length of time they stay in an area) of uninvited phone calls and personal visits from unknown individuals asking you to share information with them that you wouldn’t give to your own family members.
If you refuse to answer those 28 pages of questions (how much money you make, what time do you go to work, have you ever been on medications related to mental health, how many toilets do you have in your house, etc) the survey people that are “just doing their job” will then go around your community to see what information your neighbors might be able to provide on you.
Eventually, after a couple of months, the survey-monkey finally understands that you aren’t going to play the game. When he sighs and finally closes his computer cover while standing in your driveway, without gathering a single bit of information on you or your household, he gives you the good news. You can expect law enforcement to show up at your house and arrest you when he tells his superiors about your unwillingness to cooperate. Oh, and don’t forget about the monetary fines. $100.00 for each unanswered question and $500.00 for each question answered in a false manner.
You get picked for this survey by address. Renter or home owner, it doesn’t matter. The questions are gathered for a variety of different Government entities. These entities can’t legally ask the question of you directly so they use the guise of this survey to get around the law. That is how they got Congressional funding for this. Nobody has gone to jail for not giving info. It wouldn’t survive a legal challenge so nobody pursues it if you don’t play the game.
But if you are a law abiding individual it is still hard to say no, as I did, when these people show up at your door asking for personal information that they have no legal right to know.
Here’s Mr Howard Feinberg from the MRA (Marketing Research Association, that keeps getting GovFunding for this survey) promoting the idea that the survey stay mandatory so they can continue to get a 95+% response rate.
Mr Feinberg and his plea:
rhttp://www.insightsassociation.org/article/support-american-community-survey-keep-response-mandatory
Details on the ACS here:
https://www.rutherford.org/publications_resources/legal_features/constitutional_qa_american_community_survey
That is horrifying.
Honolulu, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/honolulu-hi/market-trends/
The link shows merely that current available inventory median house size has decreased in square footage. The median price per square foot has increased from an already astronomical $608 per foot to an even greater $613 per foot.
And prices cratered 7% YOY.
HA thinks paying less for a smaller house means a market is “cratering”. That’s why we refer to him as HA, as in ha, ha, ha!
DebtDonkey
Warrenton, OR Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/warrenton-or/home-values/
‘around 59 months of inventory’
My calculator says that’s 4.9 years. Some shortage.
“59 months of inventory of homes in the $1 million to $2 million dollar range. ”
There is certainly no shortage of $1-$2MM homes in Flathead County, Montana. I agree with you completely.
Then again, those homes only represent 2% of home sales:
“As we move up into the $1 million to $2 million dollar range, we find that this price range only accounts for 2 percent of the sales”
What about bigger picture?
“On a broader scale, there is currently around 3.6 months of inventory for homes priced under $400,000, making this price range a seller’s market. For homes priced over $400,000, there is currently 18.2 months of inventory, putting these higher priced homes in a buyer’s market.”
Homes priced at $400k or under represented ~80% of sales.
It’s fair to say that for most folks in Flathead County, the market is still considered a seller’s market–and it’s worse the cheaper the homes.
There are no price “ranges”. There is inventory and alot of it. If it’s priced high, guess what….. you better get slashing.
‘It’s pretty scary in terms of the oversupply,’ Tanner said. ‘The big fear is that [the new condos] will sit mostly empty.’
They’re already empty, lots of empty lux apartments too. You’re fooked Ted.
What could go wrong? And it worked out so well for the Chinese…
+++++
Saudi Arabia just announced plans to build a $500 billion mega-city that’s 33 times the size of NYC
Yahoo! Finance | 10/24/17 | Leanna Garfield
Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter, but falling oil prices have made it more difficult for the country to pay its oil workers.
Now the Saudi Arabian government has come up with a project that could give its economy a boost: a $500 billion mega-city that will connect to Jordan and Egypt and be powered completely by renewable energy.
On Tuesday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced the project, called NEOM, at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh. It will be financed by the Saudi government and private investors, according to Reuters.
The business and industrial-focused city will span 10,230 square miles. To put that size in perspective, 10,230 square miles is more than 33 times the land area of New York City.
Saudi Arabia expects to complete NEOM’s first section by 2025.
“This place is not for conventional people or conventional companies, this will be a place for the dreamers for the world,” bin Salmon said on a panel at the conference. “The strong political will and the desire of a nation. All the success factors are there to create something big in Saudi Arabia.”
Talk about dreamin Salmon. Want to explain why you cancelled progress on the ambitious Sadara project? You don’t have the cash.
LOL!!! This project has all the attributes of a project announced at a bubble top—I’m calling peak hubris and peak insanity right now, based upon this one announcement. Un-freaking-real.
All the success factors are there to create something big in Saudi Arabia.”
All the factors are there to create something BIG, alright: an AMAZINGLY big disaster.
Worked so well for the Chinese…
How much you want to bet that the Chinese are exactly what the Sauds want to attract? They are obviously planning to build a playland to bring in foreign money, since they don’t have any money of their own.
That said, I don’t see the attraction that Saudi Arabia would hold for foreign investors. At least Canada/Australia/New Zealand/Britain/USA have relatively safe and corruption free western-style societies to harvest. Middle East? Not so much. And what are they all going to drink?
Not to mention very strict sharia laws.
That is reminiscent of the Dave Eggers book, “A Hologram for the King,” where the protagonist is a consultant trying to win a contract from the Saudi government to handle IT for a fictional new city called the “King’s Metropolis of Economy and Trade.”
Who are the private investors counted on to finance this? I still think peak hubris is the indoor ski slope in Dubai.
The big fear is we default on our loans…and don’t hit the massive payday we were promised.
Another fear is that we are audited for fraud and GAAP and may go to jail (hey - I can dream!)
+++++
“For AEG, which developed L.A. Live, the entertainment center, there is apprehension that the new projects will not generate the foot traffic necessary to support the new businesses moving into the area, said Ted Tanner, senior vice president of real estate. ‘It’s pretty scary in terms of the oversupply,’ Tanner said. ‘The big fear is that [the new condos] will sit mostly empty.’”
Let me translate:
Zuckerberg is going to give lots of money to far left wing political groups and far left wing politicians/candidates who promise “more affordable housing” with bigger and bigger government, more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes.
+++++
Zuckerberg And Wife Commit $45 Million To Two Main Political Causes
dailycaller.com | 10/24/2017 | Eric Lieberman
The hefty sum — although still a fraction of his fortunes — will be directed for the solving of two main areas of personal concern for Zuckerberg and his wife Priscilla Chan: widespread incarceration and unaffordable housing.
To help with allocation and management of the finances, and the larger political work of the organization overall, Zuckerberg has brought on seasoned Beltway operatives. The 33-year-old entrepreneur recently hired Democratic pollster Joel Benenson, the chief strategist for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign and former top adviser to former President Barack Obama, according to Politico. Several months prior to that, the couple recruited David Plouffe, the campaign manager for Obama’s 2008 presidential run, to lead its policy and advocacy work.
“You can make change, but in order for it to be sustainable, you need to build a movement to support it,” Zuckerberg said in an interview with The New York Times around the time of Plouffe’s hiring. “No amount of private research or philanthropy is going to shift that. At the end of the day, the government has far more resources than any individual organization does.”
And the money isn’t just directly for those primary initiatives — CZI also may see an opportunity for influence in state and local politics.
Best option for affordable housing: Let these tech giants master the art of working remotely, and *poof*, instant affordable housing: in Oil City, in Roanoke, in Fayetteville NC, even in Destroit. $80K income in a city with $60K housing. Why, Zuck could even afford to hire Americans at those prices.
in Oil City, in Roanoke, in Fayetteville NC, even in Destroit and don’t forget Finley, ND!
Unfortunately the great telecommuting experiment isn’t working out so well. IBM, the champion of remote workers, has all but abandoned the strategy and has required its remote workforce to move back or else they will be let go.
I moved about 150 FTEs to remote workers and had very little buy-in from the C-suite. And I understand the concerns. There are tons of little synergies and intangible conversations that are generative in a centralized workplace. I was an evangelist for the movement, but there is something that is lost.
Unfortunately the great telecommuting experiment isn’t working out so well.
I think that all depends…on a large scale, yes, you are right. Having large number of “rank and file” employees working from home doesn’t work very well.
However, a friend’s husband hasn’t gone to an office in over 10 years–he works from home.
The main office for my wife’s new job is hundreds of miles away…she works remotely 90% of the time–and is looking forward to the summer, where she can rent a condo on a lake in the PNW and work for a couple of weeks while the kids attend summer camp.
If I need to leave the office early for some reason, I can still get work done remotely–still tied to the office technologically.
Another friend of mine works from home at least 2 days a week, and splits time between two other offices…he is at a large tech company.
Where mobility has been limited in many ways, advanced telecom has freed up the workforce in many other ways.
My previous life was in IT and operations (I changed careers to become an RN). I moved an entire contact center off-site and modeled it after the Jet Blue homeworker program. It was successful from the point of view of workers, but not management, which was odd, especially since it freed up hundreds of thousands in leasing space alone.
There are still many of remote workers, but I think I think the trend is now in the reverse. This Bloomberg article entitled “The Rise and Fall of Working From Home” convinced me of what I already had seen firsthand:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-10/the-rise-and-fall-of-working-from-home
I moved about 150 FTEs to remote workers
You moved 150 FTEs to remote work in the _medical_ field? What kind of roles does that make sense for—claims processing, maybe?
“…but there is something that is lost.”
The high heels and thigh gaps?
I’m sure Zuck just wants the government to subsidize his employees’ housing costs so that he doesn’t have to pay for his decision to locate his offices in the San Francisco Bay Area. Ya know, he could always move the offices.
Zuck has a wall
?
Taxpayers has some great poetry but you have to learn to read it. Taxy is referring to the wall around Zuckerburg’s house, while Zuck himself opposed Trump’s wall on the Mexican border.
But that said, I agree with you, Zuck is just looking for a government handout so he can pocket more millions for himself.
I was going to suggest that Facebook move its offices to another city. Problem is, companies like FB and Amazon will create their own SF or Seattle wherever they go, much as a giant mountain creates its own weather. House prices in the chosen city will instantly skyrocket in anticipation of high-pay jobs. But with individual permanent work-at-home, no city will get a critical mass of employees to create a bubble in any one city.
Yeah, at least Zuckerberg paid for his own wall. If the president wants to build a wall, he should do the same!
So, you’re OK with the idea of the border wall but just not the cost?
He’s paying all the left wing nut groups off so he has their protection and a few get out of jail free cards when he gets busted for being a fascist, thief and liar. Standard move from (((their))) playbook - steal, then with the ill gotten gains buy respectability - donate to museums, wings at hospitals, symphonies,etc. Buy media if you dont own some already to rewrite your history and suppress any inconvenient truths.
His neighbors in SF and Hawaii have a very different story - he’s hated wherever he goes.
He’s paying all the left wing nut groups off so he has their protection and a few get out of jail free cards when he gets busted for being a fascist, thief and liar
Don’t forget that he’ll get busted for pulling a Weinstein, or maybe Pizzagate!
It is amazing what happens when a marxist in power doesn’t get to pick winners and losers in American industry through his own fiat and “stroke of a pen.”
“So, if somebody wants to build a coal plant, they can — it’s just that it will bankrupt them.”
– obama, 2008
+++++
EPA repeals Clean Power Plan
americanthinker.com | 10/25/2017 | Dale Leuck
On October 10, the Environmental Protection Agency ordered the Obama-era Clean Power Plan (CPP) repealed. The CPP would have put strict limits the emissions from some 600 coal-fired plants, located mainly in the Midwest and the east, and by forcing states to adopt renewable energy projects. To get a sense of perspective, 120 coal-fired power plants have closed since 2015 because of cost increases from previous regulations, including one of the nation’s biggest.
The CPP had been put on a hold status by the U.S. Supreme Court after 28 states attorneys general and many in the industry went to court.
Trump ordered the EPA to review the plan in March. Secretary Scott Pruitt’s assessment of the plan was that it was an unlawful expansion of the agency’s authority under the Clean Air Act.
The EPA estimates that repealing the rule could avoid approximately $33 billion per year in compliance costs. Had it gone into effect, the regulation would also have weakened the nation’s power grid, because coal is most reliable fuel source.
Despite substantial growth in wind and solar energy, they still represent only about 7 percent of the power Americans use.
Coal is just too cheap and too plentiful.
Now Trump needs to repeal the law against lead in gasoline. He’ll the lead industry roaring back to life.
1. Trump didn’t repeal any laws.
2. Obama was a tyrant who thought he could rule by fiat.
3. Imagine if Trump said “So, if somebody wants to build an abortion clinic, they can — it’s just that it will bankrupt them.” You would be all snowflaked out.
4. Now imagine lower electric bills, miners back to work and a MASSIVE American energy resource being used instead of importing middle east oil. Only to a progressive is this not a win-win.
I wouldn’t worry about any of that. There’s plenty of evidence that Scott Pruitt is just doing the bidding of the fossil fuel industries. It’s all about the bottom line for big business and bonuses for CEOs. He doesn’t care about anyone’s electric bills, which will probably go down by only a few bucks.
I wouldn’t worry about any of that?
A President should not be able to rewrite laws as he sees fit.
The courts are perfectly within their right to block presidential actions that are unlawful. In fact, I expect them to do so.
And despite personally being in favor of DACA, I have no qualms with Trump’s action on DACA.
From my perspective, the ends do not justify the means. We are still a nation of laws.
A President should not be able to rewrite laws as he sees fit.
A quick Google search shows that the issue hasn’t been settled in the courts, so a final ruling on Obama’s plan has been made. Apparently, a case ten years ago decided that carbon dioxide is a pollutant that could be regulated by the EPA under existing legislation.
Read what I wrote about why you shouldn’t concern yourself with that. Corporate American is in power when it comes to this issue.
I meant to write final ruling on Obama’s plan hasn’t been made.
This also means that the assertion of “tyranny” is a load of horse crap.
Obama is not a tyrant. What he said about coal was valid. Sure, the regs can be rolled back, but that won’t invalidate the economic laws which are proving that coal is not economically viable. I deal with patients suffering from all sorts of respiratory conditions, primarily related to pollution. Sulfur dioxide, nitric oxide, nickle, arsenic, lead, ozone, CO2- once you truly understand just how bad PM 2.5 and other heavy metals are (which come primarily from vehicle emissions), it is hard to imagine why anyone would cheer coal. This shouldn’t be a partisan issue. Pollution is a negative externality born by society, primarily those who don’t have the means to move to non-polluted areas.
Have you ever spent any time in a Chinese city? We don’t want/need more coal. All the better that natural gas has superseded it and renewables (wind/solar) are fast becoming the most cost effective energy source. The sooner we get ween ourselves off of fossil fuel, the better.
“Have you ever spent any time in a Chinese city? We don’t want/need more coal.”
I enjoy your logic. 😁
You just disregard what was written there about lead and other metals. That’s some argument there. You must have hired people to run your bank.
“You must have hired people to run your bank.”
I did and I do, and as cheaply as I can get them too. I especially like interns in that I can fully exploit them for nuthin’.
Bahahaha … churn ‘em and burn em’.
You just disregard what was written there about lead and other metals.
That definitely concerns me; but I also find myself wondering how much of that lead and metals makes it through a modern coal plan that has operational scrubbers.
The plants in China don’t have any emissions controls, which is why their air quality is awful.
How Coal Kills
Pollution from coal-fired power plants can be hazardous to the health of those living nearby.
By EarthTalk on February 17, 2015
Dear EarthTalk: I saw a chart that quantified the negative impacts on our health of our reliance on coal as an energy source. It was pretty shocking as I recall. Can you summarize what we’re dealing with here? — Mitchell Baldwin, Boise, ID
Coal combustion plants account for more than half of Americans’ electric power generation. According to Coal’s Assault on Human Health, a report by the non-profit Physicians for Social Responsibility (PSR), coal combustion releases mercury, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and other substances known to be hazardous to human health. The report evaluates the impacts of coal pollution on our respiratory, cardiovascular and nervous systems and concludes that air pollutants produced by coal combustion contribute to asthma, lung cancer, congestive heart failure and strokes.
“The findings of this report are clear: While the U.S. relies heavily on coal for its energy needs, the consequences of that reliance for our health are grave,” says Alan Lockwood, a principal author of the report and a professor of neurology at the University at Buffalo.
The PSR report further illustrates the adverse effects of the mining of coal on the environment, water and human health. Coal mining leads U.S. industries in fatal injuries, and miners have suffered prolonged health issues, such as black lung disease, which causes permanent scarring of the lung tissues. Surface mining destroys forests and groundcover, leading to flooding and soil erosion. Mountaintop removal mining—used widely across southern Appalachia—can bury streams with rubble and, in turn, harm aquatic ecosystems. Waterways may also become contaminated due to the storage of post-combustion wastes from coal plants, also known as “coal ash.” There are 584 coal ash storage sites in the United States, and toxic residues have migrated into water supplies at dozens of them.
“Coal ash is a silent killer,” says Barbara Gottlieb, director of environment and health at PSR. “Communities are drinking contaminated water laced with toxic chemicals that poison humans.”
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-coal-kills/
Fake news Mike.
So now Scientific American is part of the fake news network - because coal lovers say so.
Scientific American is probably OK. I just couldn’t resist trolling you. Sorry. My mother taught me better than that.
I work in the electric utility space. Between this EPA decision and the DOE new rule on supporting struggling coal and nuclear plants, we are on track to reverse years of bad energy policy that does nothing to help the environment.
Well put SW.
You work in the electric utility space. I would like you to speak to the health problems related to pollution. I work in the medical field. I get that your bread and butter might be tied to reversing EPAs decision, but that doesn’t make it right. Your argument reminds me of wealth Dems might want to protect the SALT deduction- they are personally invested in the outcome.
A recent study in the Lancet estimates that about 16% of worldwide deaths are related to pollution. The hurdle for coal should be extremely high.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/10/171020182513.htm
Can you explain why black lung is on the rise although we have been trying to kill coal? I am a chemical plant guy and I think respiratory protection has improved 1000% during my career. What is wrong that the coal miners are still falling from this preventable infliction?
Interesting you know coal causes black lung and still support coal.
Perhaps the disease is still rising because it takes 20 years to kill you and coal use was higher 20 years ago…..
I don’t know why black lung is on the rise despite coal’s wane. But I know that black lung comes from pollution. If I were to speculate, I would suspect that there is a lag time between detection and the long cycle of contraction where the sediment and pollutants are collected in the alveoli.
I won’t speak to air pollution from power plants as I’m not an expert.
It might help to put some context to air pollution. Half of all pollution comes from mobile sources a.k.a. automobiles. If one were trying to combat pollution one should start with the largest sources first.
Alright, that’s it for pollution and energy policy. This is a real estate blog and I don’t want to clutter up the discussion with things that are non-real estate.
If one were trying to combat pollution one should start with the largest sources first.
Much effort has gone into that already. Leaded gasoline has been banned. Catalytic converters are required. There are taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel.
Nukes r nice
Sure, fine. I’m all for nuclear as long as we figure a way to store the waste that is equitable given those who stand to benefit (my feeling is store it where the energy is consumed, not dumping it on some Indian tribe’s land). And as long as we don’t have a US Fukishima incident.
What we need is investment in new-school molten salt reactors that can safely BURN the otherwise long-lived waste from old-school dirty reactors.
Coral Gables, FL Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/coral-gables-fl/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
Illinois, Chicago letter to Amazon: $2 billion in tax breaks, maybe more
Chicago Tribune Tue, Oct 24 7:25 AM MDT
Amazon supports the same insane progressive liberal policies that made Chicago am economic basket case.
The place should be a natural fit for Amazon.
But now they want $2 billion to move there?
$2 billion for a bunch of $13/hr jobs.
Scamazon will be out of business by the time this gets built.
The $13/hour jobs are at the warehouses. I expect that the HQ salaries will be higher, but I seriously doubt they will hire the numbers they are promising.
Wonder how the Dallas pensions imploding might affect this…
Miami brings a higher return? Not for much longer…
+++++
Dallas Ranked No. 1 Place To Buy Rental Property In Business Insider Study
Patch | October 23, 2017 | Payton Potter
From American Real Estate Investments: Business Insider ranked Dallas as the best place to buy a rental property. In cooperation with HomeUnion, Business Insider examined everything from the projected positive cash flow to the local economies to a detailed analysis of the local real estate market. The conclusion? Dallas is number one.
Investing in a rental property is distinctly different than owning a home or doing a fix and flip. Rental properties are a long-term investment. They need specific market conditions that minimize the risk of vacancy and maximize cash flow and appreciation.
Business Insider and HomeUnion found that the Dallas rental market offered a 5.6 percent return on investment; somewhat less than the stock market average return but considerably less volatile. They based their results on the median home price and median mortgage payment for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, with a 20 percent down payment and 5 percent interest rate:
Dallas Figures:
•Median investment home price: $199,300
•Mortgage payment: $856
•Median rent: $1,630
While a market like Miami might bring a higher annual return, Dallas has stronger economic growth and real estate appreciation, making it the top place to buy a rental property. The metro area boasts a 6.2 percent three-year population growth and 3.9 percent job gains over the last year. The absence of personal and corporate income taxes makes Texas a business-friendly state for corporations and employees alike.
I
What could go wrong?
+++++
Amazon Key is a new service that lets couriers unlock your front door
The Verge | October 25, 2017 | Ben Popper
Twelve years ago, Amazon launched Prime, a subscription service that entitled members to free two-day shipping in the United States. Since then, it has added a number of options to make delivery faster and more convenient. Prime customers can get same-day delivery, and drop off with an hour or two on some items. Of course, customers aren’t always home to receive their packages. So Amazon started putting lockers in nearby convenience stores and building lobbies. It even showed off drones that could drop the package right into your backyard. Today it’s taking the obvious next step and introducing a service that will allow Amazon couriers to open your front door and put your package safely inside your home.
The service is called Amazon Key, and it relies on a Amazon’s new Cloud Cam and compatible smart lock. The camera is the hub, connected to the internet via your home Wi-Fi. The camera talks to the lock over Zigbee, a wireless protocol utilized by many smart home devices.
When a courier arrives with a package for in-home delivery, they scan the barcode, sending a request to Amazon’s cloud. If everything checks out, the cloud grants permission by sending a message back to the camera, which starts recording. The courier then gets a prompt on their app, swipes the screen, and voilà, your door unlocks. They drop off the package, relock the door with another swipe, and are on their way. The customer will get a notification that their delivery has arrived, along with a short video showing the drop-off to confirm everything was done properly.
Home delivery was a pretty common thing a century ago. My house has a little door for package delivery. You could put a boy in through it but then he wouldn’t exactly be in the house. No “app” required.
Not exactly in the house? You must have some kind of lean-to mudroom or enclosed porch or attached garage with a locking door into the house proper. IMO that’s fine for home delivery.
And there you have it. Good Housekeepings DebtDonkey Official Seal Of Approval.
I’m guessing that the reason for putting the packages in the house, instead of on the porch, is related to thief problems.
I work at home. My wife gets stuff from Amazon occasionally. The deliveries were once done through FedEx. Over the last year all things from Amazon have been coming from unmarked vehicles with people in street clothes dropping off the packages.
Last week the vehicle was an unmarked pick-up truck with Nevada plates (I live in SoUtah) and the guy that got out of the truck was wearing a cowboy hat.
I doubt that these individuals are bonded and I wouldn’t want them having direct entry into my house no matter how many barcodes, cloud cams or smart locks Amazon is willing to provide.
Walmart is proposing a similar service: order your groceries online and they will be in the fridge and the pantry when you get home from work.
What could possibly go wrong?
Obviously a lot could go wrong, but my bet is they will get this right. The thought of buying something over the internet without ever seeing it was once considered strange, even absurd. Now people let strangers stay in their house and it goes well enough. I’m a lot less worried about an employee entering my humble place (with the restrictions in place that have been cited) than I am about having my luggage put on a plane. I would guess that the theft/loss rate will be lower for this service than for airline luggage.
It’ll work as well as Equifax confidentiality did.
“What could possibly go wrong?”
Wasn’t there was a Charles Bronson movie that started with the wife and daughter grocery shopping in NYC and taking delivery?
Foreigners Would Win Big from A Corporate Tax Cut
The Trump Administration and congressional Republican leaders (the Big Six) have proposed a $70 billion-a-year tax cut for foreign investors. It stems from the cut in statutory corporate income tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent (and repeal of the corporate AMT), which would reduce corporate taxes by an average of $200 billion a year, or $2 trillion over 10 years. While economists debate who gains from corporate tax cuts over the long run, they generally agree that owners of U.S. corporate stock would reap the short-term benefits.
In a new article, I look closely at who holds outstanding U.S. corporate stock—and calculate foreigners now own about 35 percent. So, in the short run, foreigners would reap about 35 percent of the benefits of the cut in corporate taxes, which translates to around $70 billion a year.
What about the long run? As my colleague, Howard Gleckman, described last week, there are four conditions that must be met for the corporate tax cut to increase wages: U.S. corporate tax rates must attract lots of new investment capital. Corporations must use the money to purchase a lot of new equipment for their U.S. businesses. All that new investment must make U.S. workers much more productive. And, finally, that productivity growth must translate into far higher wages.
Indeed, the length of the short run may be stretched further if, as Paul Krugman observes, attracting lots of capital to the U.S. means very big trade deficits, leading to a stronger dollar, which would itself discourage capital inflows from abroad that would finance new investments.
Importantly, in the short run the Big Six is proposing to cut taxes for investments that have already been made, providing a windfall to existing investors, including foreign shareholders. Ideally, policymakers would cut taxes only for new investments, because those are the only ones that are sensitive to tax incentives. But that’s not what slashing the corporate income tax rate would do.
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/foreigners-would-win-big-corporate-tax-cut
‘if, as Paul Krugman observes’
Credibility evaporates. Next.
Krugman knows what he’s talking about. That particular point is probably not controversial.
Paul Krugman: An Alien Invasion Could Fix the Economy | TIME.com
business.time.com/2011/08/…/paul-krugman-an-alien-invasion-could-fix-the-econom…
Aug 16, 2011 - Aliens. Paul Krugman probably feels like an alien himself these days, … “If we discovered that space aliens were planning to attack, and we …
Paul Krugman Calls Off The Fake Alien Invasion - Forbes
https://www.forbes.com/sites/…/11/…/paul-krugman-calls-off-the-fake-alien-invasion/
Nov 19, 2016 - Paul Krugman Calls Off The Fake Alien Invasion … a threat from nonexistent space aliens – becomes a good thing; spending is good, and while …
Paul Krugman, Who Proposed Fight with Fake Outer Space Aliens to …
https://www.themaven.net/…/paul-krugman-who-proposed-fight-with-fake-outer-spac...
Nov 21, 2016 - Paul Krugman, a die-hard Keynesian who recently proposed faking an invasion of space aliens to stimulate the economy, is now all of a …
Krugman calls for space aliens to fix U.S. economy. - YouTube
Video for krugman space aliens
▶ 1:36
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhMAV9VLvHA
Seriously!?
I dunno. One could argue that the Japanese did more to end the Great Depression than FDR did.
That’s it exactly - a reference to WW2 and the Great Depression. It’s Economics 101.
Well there’s three people, Krugman, Oxy and Mikey that think you make money by breaking shit and killing people.
No, it’s another non-controversial topic in economics.
“non-controversial topic”
Well sure we’ve heard of this. The Black Plague made people rich, those who survived. Those who didn’t left their stuff laying around!
Recommending death and destruction as a solution to a recession is profoundly perverted.
💩
“non-controversial topic”
If you ever learn a little about economics, you’ll understand my statement.
Recommending death and destruction as a solution to a recession is profoundly perverted.
Wow, that’s a great insight. Fortunately, no one is making any such recommendation.
💩💩💩
Recommending death and destruction as a solution to a recession is profoundly perverted.
“Wow, that’s a great insight. Fortunately, no one is making any such recommendation.”
Then what’s this?
Comment by oxide
2017-10-25 12:34:12
I dunno. One could argue that the Japanese did more to end the Great Depression than FDR did.
Comment by MightyMike
2017-10-25 14:48:50
That’s it exactly - a reference to WW2 and the Great Depression. It’s Economics 101.
Those are assertions regarding history. If you think that someone is suggesting that it would be a good thing if Japan attacked Pearl Harbor again, you have misunderstood what was written.
If aliens invaded they would probably exterminate us.
The lesson taken away from WWII and the Great Depression is that massive government spending and war will lift a country out of depression, and since government debt went to 100% of GDP and was never paid off, it just became a smaller percentage of GDP, that debt doesn’t matter.
Sometimes, making a mistake and getting away with it is worse than getting the consequences.
Perhaps it was actually the technology boom after WWII, which had its seeds in government spending in WWII, things like jets, computers, new materials, expanded travel, etc, in addition to the rest of the world lying in ruins, that ushered in the economic boom in America. The things that produce items of value which improve people’s lives. And the thing which allowed the debt-averse country to allow its debt to become a smaller part of GDP.
The problem is today, politicians and central bankers look at WWII and the Great Depression and are drawing the wrong lessons. Perhaps we won’t grow our way out of ever increasing non-war debt that is now over 100% of GDP. The rest of the world is not in ruins, in fact China is rising rapidly (I just read about how the Chinese are putting up a quantum communication satellite network, for research purposes, and have achieved quantum entanglement in it - google “micius satellite” - amazing).
Politicians and central bankers look at the great depression and WWII and hear that siren song, that money printing and debt will lead to effortless prosperity, and that debt doesn’t matter. It’s a siren song, wishful thinking that leaders have had over the millenia. They think, “We effortlessly borrow and print and spend and yadda yadda, we’ll get an economic boom again.”
The problem is, they have yet to agree on and understand the ‘yadda yadda’. The devil is in that detail.
‘The problem is today, politicians and central bankers look at WWII and the Great Depression and are drawing the wrong lessons’
Like maybe it isn’t 1944? We just conjured up 15-30 trillion QE bucks ( no one knows, it’s classified). Just what are we waiting for? We are way past the space alien nonsense.
The US grew like crazy post war because much of the rest of the world was destroyed…the US had a huge competitive advantage.
It is a mistake to think we’ll get that kind of growth again.
I’ve heard that one a lot. I wonder who cooked it up. The fact of the matter is that, outside of the Soviet-controlled part of Europe, the major manufacturing countries, like Germany, France and Japan, pulled themselves together pretty quickly (thanks, in part, to the Marshall Plan and spending on the Korean War) grew quite rapidly starting in the late 1940s.
We just conjured up 15-30 trillion QE bucks ( no one knows, it’s classified).
Which part is classified, Ben? I thought it was fairly well known that the US QE’ed ~4T, and the other central banks had QE’ed ~16T, for a total of ~20T of QE globally.
“Recommending death and destruction as a solution to a recession is profoundly perverted.
…
Fortunately, no one is making any such recommendation.”
Political economy
The war dividend
The argument that peace is bad for growth doesn’t stand up to scrutiny
Free exchange
Jun 24th 2014
by R.A. | LONDON
WAR is seductive. It is dramatic; powerful stories in histories or conflict-inspired art can easily provoke a nostalgia for the grand struggles of the past, especially among those lucky enough not to have lived through them. It is all too easy to discount their horrors, and to inflate their contributions—not least because of the difficulty of constructing counterfactuals.
…
We should therefore be very, very careful before crediting war with any net contribution to humanity. It’s not simply enough to argue that the war resulted in some positive developments. To properly appreciate the effect of conflict one needs to show those developments would not have occurred in the absence of war.
Consider a recent piece by economist Tyler Cowen, and published at the Upshot, titled “the lack of major wars may be hurting economic growth”. Here is the crux of the argument:
…
Mr Cowen is not alone in making these sorts of arguments. In 2011 Paul Krugman joked that the threat of alien invasion might loosen government purse strings, prompting the sort of deficit-spending needed to jolt rich economies out of their slumps.
…
There are no words there that constitute a recommendation. Tyler Cowen is generally one of those “small government” guys. It’s interesting that he appears to praise what some people on the internet call “central planning”. Kudos to him for the intellectual honesty.
“If you think that someone is suggesting that it would be a good thing if Japan attacked Pearl Harbor again”
No FDR died before the end of WW2.
I’ve heard that one a lot. I wonder who cooked it up. The fact of the matter is that, outside of the Soviet-controlled part of Europe, the major manufacturing countries, like Germany, France and Japan, pulled themselves together pretty quickly (thanks, in part, to the Marshall Plan and spending on the Korean War) grew quite rapidly starting in the late 1940s.
Rebuilding destroyed buildings as part of growing GDP is different than expanding your business to grow GDP.
The US was at an advantage because they didn’t need to re-create production (even though that also would have added to GDP). They used existing production to expand their business while others were “pulling themselves together”.
Back in the 80s, when everyone was concerned about the rise of Japan, there were statements made to the effect that Japan benefited from having its factories blown to bits. They built new, modern factories after the war while we were still operating old ones nearly a hundred years old.
Also, Germany rebuilt itself so quickly that was exporting VW Beetles to American by 1950. That car eventually became very popular among American drivers. The slowdown in US economic growth occurred two decades later.
“there were statements made to the effect that Japan benefited from having its factories blown to bits.”
Statements made by who Paul Krugman?
It was a long time ago. I don’t recall. It was probably wasn’t Krugman, a person that you know nothing about.
https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/restoring-a-global-economy-19501980
“World War II left the United States in a uniquely powerful position. While Europe and Asia had experienced extensive destruction and loss of life, no battles had been fought on the soil of the United States. The U.S. dollar became the world’s major reserve currency. U.S. corporations assumed leading positions in many industries. Europe and Japan had to spend the immediate postwar decade undergoing extensive reconstruction, heavily dependent on official aid from the United States, yet over time Europe and Japan closed the technological and productivity gap with the United States. The emergence of a U.S. deficit on its balance of trade in the 1960s, and the devaluation of the U.S. dollar and the end of its convertibility into gold in 1971, provided symbolic signs of the ending of an era.”
“It was a long time ago. I don’t recall. It was probably wasn’t Krugman, a person that you know nothing about.”
Someone from the SPLC?
>”Krugman knows what he’s talking about.”
LMFAO! Krugman is a discredited goof and so is anyone who takes him seriously. My favorite Krugman quote:
“”The growth of the Internet will slow drastically… By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”
Is the internet really still impacting the economy, though? I mean I know we all use it, but is it doing anything to change economic output?
>”Is the internet really still impacting the economy, though?”
That might be the dumbest question on the internet today, and that’s saying something. Yikes.
Calling me dumb is probably not the most elucidating response to my question. Did you understand the question?
LMFAO! Krugman is a discredited goof and so is anyone who takes him seriously. My favorite Krugman quote:
“”The growth of the Internet will slow drastically… By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”
You must have found something that he wrote in 1995 on some right wing (pro-business, pro-rich guy) website. Many people probably made similar quotes at the time. That doesn’t discredit him.
Get your rage-ravaged skull on the TrumpTrain.
Is the internet really still impacting the economy, though? I mean I know we all use it, but is it doing anything to change economic output?
There is plenty of disruption:
Toys R Us, Sports Authority, owners of dead malls everywhere. How about Taxi drivers (without the internet, Uber doesn’t exist)? Perhaps anyone who has used AirBNB? Maybe restaurants via Door Dash? DocuSign?
Digital Photography would be a shadow of itself without the internet (sharing photos, ordering prints and books)…Kodak?
Streaming their video over the internet?
Music industry? Streaming? Netflix vs. local movie rental stores? Coming soon (within the next 10 years), how about real-time virtual reality for witnessing live events?
The answer to the second part of your question is more complicated.
To the extent that slower information flow was a “brake” on economic output, I would argue that the internet (all-else equal) did increase economic output as compared to a world without the internet.
HOWEVER, I would also argue that our capability to effectively utilize the internet to increase output is still being developed. A relative of mine focuses on investing in old-world businesses and working to improve their efficiency through utilizing the internet.
Imagine drinking water through a hose…that’s old telecom.
Now imagine drinking through a firehose…that’s the internet…it takes time to fully utilize the benefits of that kind of data flow.
“imagine drinking through a firehose…”
I don’t think you’d like it.
I don’t understand why you say Uber is internet magic. We have a local outfit here that I call and a car shows up. The drivers use their own cars. They work when they want to. The last one I got was a school bus driver in off hours. No internet involved and no manic IPO. GPS not required.
Generally speaking, I think it is good policy to lower the rates and broaden the base. Anyone with a cursory understanding of corporate tax knows that the wealthiest corporations pay no where near the 35% tax rate. I could settle with a 20% tax rate as long as a ton of
loopholesdeductions are eliminated.My sticking point is that the tax overhaul shouldn’t add to the deficit. It should be revenue neutral, otherwise the hypocrisy of the republicans will be thick since they were always calling out Obama’s profligacy. The only thing worse than tax and spend is spending without the tax revenue to support it.
As for the impact of the internet on economic growth, that is actually very debatable. Early supporter of DJT Peter Thiel famously said “we wanted flying cars but got 140 characters.” The point is that the internet wasn’t as revolutionary to economic growth compared to other technological advances like television, airplane travel, automobiles, home appliances, and electricity. Krugman’s assertion isn’t so baseless.
Prepare to be disappointed.
OCT 22, 2017 @ 07:00 AM
The Trump Budget Legacy: A Permanent $1 Trillion Federal Deficit
Stan Collender , CONTRIBUTOR
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported last Friday that the federal budget deficit for the just-completed fiscal year had risen by $80 billion over fiscal 2016 to the ominous-sounding $666 billion, a number many people think is an omen for the coming of the devil or anti-Christ.
In this case they may be right: The spending and taxing policies about to be put in place by the Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress will balloon the federal deficit to $1 trillion or more every year going forward.
And unlike the four consecutive $1 trillion deficits recorded during the first years of the Obama administration, these trillion dollar annual deficits will be the result of enacted changes in federal spending and taxing rather than on a temporary economic downturn. Some of these changes will be permanent. Others will need to be reapproved annually but are unlikely to be rejected in the future.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stancollender/2017/10/22/the-trump-budget-legacy-a-permanent-1-trillion-federal-deficit/#7a104aaa7a65
I find it deeply troubling that the shrill anti-deficit hawks that were out in full force during the Obama administration are oddly quiet now that Trump is in office. It does feel quite hypocritical. It seems like the friction was more against “the other” rather than the actual policy of debt and deficits. Now that “our guy is in,” many deficit hawks are clearly not alarmed by the debt trajectory.
‘I find it deeply troubling’
Drama queen. Nothing is going to be paid back.
The last one I got was a school bus driver in off hours. No internet involved and no manic IPO. GPS not required.
The internet reduced friction around getting a car quickly and easily.
Call a service? Sure. You call a person, that person finds the driver, the driver determines how far away they are, etc., etc. I used to regularly wait 45 minutes+ trying to get a cab in a small town. We also used a car service (for years)–got to know our driver.
Uber makes the process much easier, faster, and more transparent (you know exactly where you car is)–pay is automatic…accordingly, I use Uber far more than I ever used a taxi or car service.
Without the internet, Uber doesn’t work, and I use car services less frequently.
The only thing worse than tax and spend is spending without the tax revenue to support it.
I agree.
The problem with lowering rates and broadening the base is that it means that the rich will pay a lower percentage of the overall burden, and the lowest income folks will need to pay something for income tax…and that simply isn’t acceptable to a large number of people (mainly the non-1%ers).
“Peter Thiel famously said “we wanted flying cars but got 140 characters.””
It wasn’t Peter who said that, it was the subtitle of their manifesto that was written by another of their partners.
https://foundersfund.com/the-future/#/the-internet
They have 5 sections…one of them is the internet…Peter Thiel was an early investor in PayPal…you think that was possible without the internet?
I’m not sure we even have Uberers around here. The internet doesn’t show any availability. I guess the reason I’m not inconvenienced by any wait time is that I’m scheduling my day ahead when I arrange a car. It is there on time and so am I, OK, I’m early. I don’t care if it takes a few seconds for the dispatcher to talk to someone. The internet has not added anything for me in this regard.
I don’t have the luxury of planning everything.
I don’t use Uber every day, but I have used it in situations that I wouldn’t have thought of before…one day, my wife, kids, and I were at the local pool, ran into friends, and ended up staying later than expected. I needed to go grocery shopping and cook dinner…so, I got an Uber…5 minutes later, I was in a car, and $5 later, I was home.
Sure, I could have called a car service (for more money and longer time), or simply not cooked dinner that night. But Uber certainly was convenient.
I dropped my car off for service one day…and their courtesy shuttle would have been a 40 minute wait…Uber.
I’m not saying it’s something new…we’ve always had cars for hire. What I’m saying is that the internet has reduced friction (and increased feedback–”surge pricing” to get more drivers on the road), which has increased the use of such cars for hire.
Rental Watch: There is plenty of disruption:
Toys R Us [....]”
Toys R Us and Colt Arms are more of a result of private equity taking companies with mild problems, loading them up with debt, paying themselves and que sera, sera with the companies.
It’s classic corporate looting. Bloomberg had an excellent series on the entire Colt debacle.
I think today’s MBA courses teach more about most effect ways to loot companies in order to obtain near term enrichment of the C-suite, rather than anything about sustainable operation of a company, responsibility to employees or responsibility to society.
Digital Photography would be a shadow of itself without the internet
The initial belief was that everyone was going to make prints at home. It didn’t pan out the way HP, Epson, Canon, Lexmark, et al hoped it would.
The initial belief was that everyone was going to make prints at home. It didn’t pan out the way HP, Epson, Canon, Lexmark, et al hoped it would.
If it wasn’t so easy to send digital photos over the internet, printing pictures at home might have been more popular.
And why print them at all, in most cases, when it’s so easy to enjoy them on digital devices at better size and resolution than your average print of old?
Not to mention the ease of storage (in huge volumes) and the fact that they don’t degrade over time in the digital archives.
“And why print them at all, in most cases, when it’s so easy to enjoy them on digital devices at better size and resolution than your average print of old?”
This is especially the case when you can e-mail them to grandparents, and not send them copies of the photos by mail.
OneAgainstMany
Your slip is showing.
Not sure I understand whatever point you are trying to make.
I dunno. I think he’s trying to say you’re a dramaqueen.
Okay, well at least I understand the jab. I’d prefer the rejoinder to use some sort or reasoning rather than just ad hominem attacks, but oh well.
This article in CSM summed up it up pretty well:
New endangered species: the GOP deficit hawk
https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2017/1025/New-endangered-species-the-GOP-deficit-hawk
No DonkeyDrama. Housing.
Waller, Washington Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/waller-wa/home-values/
This is especially the case when you can e-mail them to grandparents, and not send them copies of the photos by mail.
Which lead to Facebook’s killer app that brings us to where we are today. Everything seems so obvious in hindsight but it really was revolutionary to no longer even need to print/mail/email them to everyone…just post on FB where everyone who cares can see them automatically.
Early in that revolution I used to carefully curate my albums on FB the same way I would a real album. Which actually made some sense with a lifetime of scanned photos worth saving that were only a couple of hundred at most. But now that everyone is generating photos by the thousands that everyone can see even that has become pointless. What used to be special is now burying us and our ability to focus or even care.
just post on FB where everyone who cares can see them automatically.
Hardly the same as personally communicating with others. You shift the burden to your friends and family, who become obligated to “keep up with” your life if they want to know anything.
In other words, you become a self-centered a$$hole.
Hardly the same as personally communicating with others. You shift the burden to your friends and family, who become obligated to “keep up with” your life if they want to know anything.
In other words, you become a self-centered a$$hole.
Really? Speaking from the other side, as one of the “friends and family”, I much prefer FB to some personalized message about how great little Johhny is that I now have to decide whether to craft a personal reply or pretend I never got.
Most people don’t care about little Johnny much. But they still like to feel in the loop. I think using FB as I described above hits the sweet spot of allowing friends and family to keep up if they want or ignore if they want. And best of all they get to see each other’s comments and that makes it more interesting for everyone too. Beats the hell out of feeling obligated to put together one of those big narcissistic Christmas letters with pictures and mail out to 100+ people, most of whom don’t care but now feel obligated to put together one of their own lest anybody feel unloved.
Your comment sounds like something an extrovert would say when frustrated that the rest of the world is tired of doing things their way and is opting out.
Realtors are liars.
But so are real estate agents, though.
Grants Pass, OR Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/grants-pass-or/market-trends/
Buy stocks. The stock market always goes up, and you can’t lose.
Usually, that is…
Except for today 😂
How did you get that little bear face in your name?
Like this.
Like WAAAAAAAAAAT?
Hey Big 🎻
https://en.support.wordpress.com/emoji/
Also:
💋
Tell us what “Big V” means and you can have an emoji.
Hey prof. 👨🏫
“Big V”
Big Violin = Viola?
Who knows. She managed to pick one out for herself quite nicely.
This just in: The stock market doesn’t go up every day, after all.
The market will rise and fall with the progress of the tax cut bill in Congress.
Denver mom says city refuses to let her sell home at market value
… and later…
.
My house has a restrictive covenant that prevents me from turning it into a bar or a saloon. I can live with that.
Mine says I cannot run a horse rental operation.
“Out of 5,000 homes built in Green Valley Ranch, 642, including Lopez’s, were priced as affordable housing.”
Were priced as affordable housing?
So she had no idea she was paying less than others for the same unit?
My @ss.
In 2012 she had no problem paying $150k for a unit everyone else was probably paying $200k for.
Now “Lopez could only sell her home for $186,000, $79,000 less than her buyers were prepared to pay” and she is crying.
LOLZ—this one provokes a special flavor of schadenfreude for me… Her tears are delicious.
Having passed by GVR in east Denver out near the airport on a daily basis tip I was catapulted from my job - the quality of that area has a lot left to be desired - nothing but a bunch of overloaded debt donkeys in those nabes - give it a few years and it will take on the stench that Aurora CO has become. Houses literally in the middle of freaking no where.
And who in their right mind would be living in an area where airport glide paths predominate? Sheesh.
If the title company didn’t tell her about this, then she needs to make a claim under her title insurance.
Title company probably listed it accurately in her report, and she probably didn’t read it.
Probs.
To be fair, I think the mom at least has a case that should be looked at. Evidently Denver allowed her to buy without checking whether her income qualified. Several people have looked at the paperwork and they can’t find an affordable housing clause in her paperwork. Even if her income did qualify at the time, if she didn’t sign anything, she has a good chance of prevailing. It’s still under review.
I almost hope she wins. She wants to take the profit from the sale to buy a bigger house … at peak Denver prices. Yup, and in a few years she explain to her little daughter (no daddy in sight, of course) why she’s being kicked out of that house too.
Even if her income did qualify at the time, if she didn’t sign anything, she has a good chance of prevailing.
False. Deed restrictions NEVER require a signature to be enforceable. They are merely restrictions that are attached to the deed, and part of the public record. A purchaser with any sense reviews them (via their title search results) before closing.
How would the city even have any means or standing to insert documents into a closing packet for signatures anyway?? You’re not making any sense at all here, oxy.
U.S.
As CPS schools empty: Mayor Emanuel, don’t let this crisis go to waste
Chicago Tribune 22 hours ago
Realtors are liars.
…. And every closing a crime scene.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/employees-feel-blindsided-as-teslas-mass-firings-spread-to-solarcity/ar-AAu2q5f?li=BBnbfcL
Employees feel blindsided as Tesla’s mass firings spread to SolarCity
Solar=failure. Just like Teslacle, Freakbook and Scamazon.
Sheridan, WY Housing Prices Crater 19% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/sheridan-wy/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
Does anyone have evidence of what came first in the Bust in 2006?
Was it job losses, defaults By borrowers or something else?
I’m trying to understand if the foreclosure activity as noted in the first article and as I’ve witnessed in person in multiple markets in the present are the canary in the coal mine.
Falling prices.
So the falling prices led to the job losses? That’s interesting.
That’s history. Housing market peak 2005. Massive layoffs into 2008. Credit expansion creates wasteful jobs. Credit contraction cuts waste.
Yup, falling prices led to financial distress of a large number of companies, which led to credit drying up, which led to consumption declining, job losses, etc.
Unfortunately for many of my younger friends with obligations, buckle up.
The real shame in the loss of mania and bubble jobs is that they were ever created in the first place.
That’s ironic, it sounds remarkably familiar! And true…
Just another timeless quote on found on the HBB.
So falling prices are not actually good for the economy. That’s something to keep in mind.
Incorrect.
Spiraling prices and rigged markets resulting in a bubbles aren’t good for the economy.
Remember…. Nothing accelerates the economy like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels. Nothing.
Clarksburg, MD Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/clarksburg-md/home-values/
Bear Sterns and Lehman brothers meltdowns were the catalyst. Even Shiller points to frothy stock markets and inflated housing markets, but he acknowledges that we need a catalyst for a meltdown. When the Reserve Primary Fund broke the buck in 2008, that was kind of a primary catalyst. Read The Big Short, or watch the movie.
What will it be this time around? No one knows.
I would disagree Respectfully. If something had to cause those banks to fail. That something was trading on bad mortgage debt. So, mortgage defaults came before the Bear Stearns collapse. What caused the defaults?
The defaults were caused by the temporary pick—a-payment loan scheme maturing into a normal monthly payment scheme that included principal and interest.
What caused the defaults?
Terrible underwriting, risky loans (Option ARMs, etc.).
Once the first shoe dropped, prime borrowers started walking away. Demand dried up (who buys a home with 95% leverage when prices are falling 15% per year?).
Downward spiral of defaults.
Seems correct. Risky loans default first. Values drop. More marginal/risky borrowers default. Next, prime borrowers default by choice as the values plummet. Probably happens somewhere around the 20% value loss point.
Those that overpay the most default first…. And there’s been a whole lot of overpaying going on the last 10 years.
It was defaults that started it.
Does anyone have evidence of what came first in the Bust in 2006?
And… everyone who replied earlier has failed to answer this question correctly.
The first thing that happened was a big drop in sales volume on houses.
Housing price declines came later; strategic defaults happened after that; then mbs pricing froze up; then those holding lots of MBS (e.g. Bear Stearns) had their valuations called into question by the markets.
Note for those paying attention: decent drops in sales volumes are happening NOW.
Thank you prime! I’d forgotten about the sales volume element. Could it be that psychology changes in the market preceded those volume drops. If so, it seems psychology really does drive the markets!
“… it seems psychology really does drive the markets!”
Couple this psychology with an infinite supply of stupidity and enormous gobs of money that belongs to somebody else and - presto! - you have just created for yourself a crazy market and you have created for myself a very easy way to make a living.
Pukes work, bankers reap. God’s Plan.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
The first thing that happened was a big drop in sales volume on houses.
Actually the first thing that happened was a massive explosion in development and sales volumes, which drove vacancy rates quite high.
High sales volumes with rising vacancy means only one thing…lots, and lots of speculators buying homes (Casey Serins of the world).
The sales volumes dropped in the bubble years in the context of lots of vacant homes.
The sales volumes dropping now are in the context of fewer homes for sale, low vacancy and meager development.
There is a difference.
Whether 25 million excess empty houses are for sale or not is a distinction without a difference.
I think one of the most insightful cause and effect articles that explain the US housing market crash is this one here:
https://qz.com/1064061/house-flippers-triggered-the-us-housing-market-crash-not-poor-subprime-borrowers-a-new-study-shows/
In a nutshell: housing flippers caused the housing crash, not the poor. Also interesting, it was the wealthy and middle-class speculators who contributed greatest to this bubble. Undoubtedly, poor regulations and easy credit was the tinder that created the conditions ripe for this bonfire.
“…or something else?”
The lending dried-up when the existing paper was downgraded.
Sedalia, CO Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/sedalia-co/home-values/
https://snag.gy/m5EzRB.jpg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-25/can-tesla-make-up-for-autopilot-s-lost-year
The word I’m looking for is “fraud”.
‘Crying Clinton Supporters - My Favorite Clips’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uyTfOA9QlCQ
Trump wins Florida! *** Top 10 *** MOST enjoyable MSM reactions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IS0qVHVtIQ
Florida A ‘Checkmate’ State For Hillary Clinton, Says Chuck Todd | TODAY
Published on Nov 6, 2016
NBC political director Chuck Todd breaks down where the battleground electoral map stands for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, saying Florida will once again be a vital state for the candidates to win.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MISi38RDd2g
144 Comments
Larry Dawson
11 months ago
Thank you Florida
10/26/17
You’re quite welcome Larry.
jeff
They didn’t underestimate Trump. They underestimated the people. We threw him at the establishment like an axe, both R & D.
It’s only a few days to the 500th anniversary of when the Germans stood up to the corrupt PTB and Luther nailed their grievances to the door of the Cathedral.
This never gets old.
Stamp those feet:
‘Ryan acknowledged at an event hosted by Reuters on Wednesday that a full repeal of the SALT deduction was unlikely and that a compromise would have to be reached. “I think there’s a way of addressing the concerns that our members have from middle-income taxpayers in those states so that they are net winners in tax reform as well,” he said.’
‘Rep. Tom Reed, R-N.Y., a member of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee who has been negotiating a compromise, said he thinks a deal with House leaders is in reach. “They recognize the serious nature of the problem that needs to be addressed, and that is where I think the total repeal of the state and local tax deduction, in my opinion, is off the table and going in the right direction,” he said. “Obviously, if we had a preference, we’d love to keep it, but I think the reality of a good-faith compromise is where I think we will land.”
‘Reed said that a final deal may not materialize before the budget vote, but that significant progress toward a deal could win over balking members. “Because [leaders are] acting in good faith, I expect members to act in good faith,” he said. “If that’s where we get – to where we have, not a deal, but a solution in concept – that will probably be enough to move us to the next level.”
http://www.pressherald.com/2017/10/25/republicans-make-one-last-push-for-unity-on-taxes/
You guys are fooked.
Well, they can always find more money but cutting the federal share of Medicaid to 50 percent for all states. Because the biggest reason that states such as NY/CAL/etc. have higher tax rates is a lower share of Medicaid costs is covered by the Feds.
Flipping SoCal homes for a profit was as easy as pie such a short time ago!
Manafort’s L.A. Property Stakes Seen Ending in $4 Million Loss
By Andrew Martin and David Voreacos
October 25, 2017, 1:00 AM PDT
Manafort, family provided money to son-in-law’s house projects
Former Trump campaign manager faces mounting legal bills
Paul Manafort’s California real estate dreams appear to have gone bust.
Manafort, the former chairman of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, and his family are on track to lose more than $4 million that they invested in properties in Los Angeles, his attorney said after a hearing Monday in bankruptcy court.
Manafort, his wife and his daughter loaned the money starting in 2014 to limited liability companies run by his former son-in-law, Jeffrey Yohai, to rehabilitate Los Angeles homes and sell them, according to court and real estate records. Four Yohai entities have since filed for bankruptcy protection.
…
Business
Southern California job growth will slow next year, especially in Orange County
By Margot Roosevelt
Orange County Register
PUBLISHED: October 25, 2017 at 12:01 am | UPDATED: October 25, 2017 at 12:43 pm
Southern California job growth will slow dramatically over the next three years, according to a forecast by Cal State Fullerton economists.
Payrolls in the region spanning Orange and Los Angeles counties and the Inland Empire will grow at a pace of 1.6 percent this year, 1.7 percent next year, and 1.9 percent in 2019, the university’s annual forecast, released Wednesday, Oct. 25, predicts.
That compares with an expansion of 2.6 percent in payroll jobs in 2016.
“While the national employment has been robust,” the report notes, “job growth in Orange County and California appears to have slowed down over the last several months. Southern California and Orange County, in particular, are in a local downturn as employment growth has stagnated.”
…
“According to the American Community Survey, there are 3,577,942 housing units in New Jersey; 388,456 of which are recorded as vacant. That’s nearly 11 percent of the total housing stock.”
Includes second homes. There are many of those on the Jersey Shore.
With 25 million excess empty and defaulted housing units out there,they’re likely understating the empty inventory.
Michigan: Man in mortgage assistance fraud case faces gets 15 years
crushing.housing.losses.
The group’s senior vice president, Daren Blomquist, explained. “This isn’t another crisis, so to speak, but we are seeing some loosening of credit that is introducing more risk, and there is this increase in the number of people falling into foreclosure,” Blomquist said.
Short version: Buyers paid too much.