Is It Going To Just Sit There?
A report from Bisnow on New York. “Apartment rents are flat or down in New York City in 2017, and banks have been wary for more than a year about giving developers construction loans. While conventional wisdom might suggest it is time for developers to shy away from building, there are some in New York who say the market is ripe for new apartments. Rents have fallen by nearly 2% in Manhattan this year compared to 2016, and in places like Downtown Brooklyn, where thousands of units are coming online at the same time, fears of a glut have developers offering high concessions.”
“‘Experienced developers realize now is the time to develop,’ Alchemy Properties founder Ken Horn said. ‘Hard costs are coming down now and contractors are a little hungrier. Building permits have gone down in the last two years about 70 to 80%.’”
The Real Deal on New York. “Over the summer, broker Reba Miller had high hopes that her rental listing at 56 Leonard Street would fetch $32,000 a month. The owner had signed a contract on the new condominium more than three years earlier, and the plan was to sell it and collect a tidy profit. But with new development resales ‘not lining up to what everyone dreamed and wanted,’ Miller said the owners decided to rent it out until the right buyer came along. The owners relisted the apartment in August, but with the rent reduced by nearly 30 percent. ‘That $23,000 is a giveaway price,’ Miller said.”
“There are plenty of luxury condo owners facing the same set of issues. Across all price points, the rental market is challenged. Citi Habitats estimates that 21,793 new rental units will be added to the market across the three boroughs by the end of this year. And another 21,434 units are expected to become available next year — meaning the rental glut is only going to get worse. ‘There are more people who bought in the buildings as an investment than I or anyone was aware of,’ said the Corcoran Group’s Robby Browne, whose own unit at 15 Central Park West is now rented for $16,250 a month, a drop from the $18,500 it used to score.”
From the Colorado Real Estate Journal. “Net absorption measures the difference in occupied space between time periods. Most of the multifamily headlines understandably focus on high rents. Yet, the Denver area’s multifamily market in 2017 already has absorbed close to 12,000 units, the strongest absorption in more than 25 years, according to the Denver office of ARA Newmark. At the 2017 Fall Multifamily Development & Investment Conference & Expo last month, absorption was one of the first statistical measures highlighted by appraiser Cary Bruteig. Yet, no single metric tells the entire story, and that is true about absorption as well.”
“Rents in downtown actually ‘are down $2 per sf,’ from a year ago, Bruteig said. ‘How can that be? Why would rents fall?’ at time when absorption is so strong, Bruteig asked. ‘That is because we built more units than we absorbed downtown,’ Bruteig said, answering his own question. Year to date, 2,082 units were added and 1,440 units were absorbed, ‘leaving an excess of 642 units,’ Bruteig’s math shows. Over the past three years, 4,816 units have been added downtown and 3,742 have been absorbed, he added.”
“‘We now have more vacant units downtown than we did three years ago,’ Bruteig pointed out. Not only have apartment rents fallen downtown but also vacancies have been rising, he said. The central business district vacancy rate is now just above 6 percent and it is possible it could be heading over 7 percent, Bruteig said. There currently are 6,650 apartment units under construction in the Denver area, with thousands more on the drawing board. Based on the current absorption rate, that means there is a 3.7-year supply of apartments on the market, Bruteig said.”
“‘Absorption has been really strong in the CBD,’ Bruteig said. ‘But absorption needs to be a lot stronger to keep up with with the new supply. Is that realistic? Or is it going to just sit there?’”
From the Tennessean. “The median price of a Nashville area single-family home fell for the fourth straight month in October, a drop Realtors say reflect a low inventory of homes priced below $300,000. Greater Nashville Realtors President Scott Troxel said that reality has potential homebuyers worn out from competing for available homes and contributed to residential closings falling 1.7 percent year-over-year in October, the first drop since August 2016.”
“‘We’ve reached a point where the quality of the remaining inventory below $300,000 has gone down to where buyers are basically saying what’s left isn’t compelling,’ Troxel said.”
“Troxel said he’s worried that the Trump administration’s proposed tax reform package would hurt current and potential homeowners. ‘Measures like placing limits on the use of the Mortgage Interest Deduction and the elimination of deductions for state and local sales and income tax will reverse the incentives for home ownership,’ he added. ‘Considering that homeowners pay between 80 and 90 percent of all federal incomes taxes, they shouldn’t be penalized through tax reform.’”
The Washington Post. “A proposal to cap the mortgage interest deduction for new purchases of expensive homes was among the most talked-about aspects of the tax overhaul rolled out by House Republicans last week. But the plan takes aim at the mortgage interest deduction in another way, too, by eliminating deductions for mortgages on second homes. This could have a significant impact on certain areas of the country where vacation and second homes make up a disproportionate chunk of the local housing market.”
“According to the National Association of Realtors, 12 percent of residential properties purchased in 2016 were vacation homes. Buyers used mortgages to finance 72 percent of vacation-home purchases that year. In 2013, 70 percent of the total value of the deduction went to the richest 20 percent of households. The 1 percent alone gobbled up 15 percent of the deduction. If the case for deducting interest on primary residences has grown shaky, then the case for doing it on vacation homes is even more so. The policy further inflates housing prices in resort areas, where many of the year-round residents can’t afford them to begin with. Meanwhile, the ultra-wealthy use a loophole in the second-home deduction to write off the interest on their yachts.”
“The census data indicates that there are over 5 million seasonal, vacation or recreational homes in the United States that sit vacant all or part of the year. That’s an awful lot of empty space to be subsidizing via the tax code.”
The Milton Herald in Georgia. “If you are looking for a new home under the $400,000 price range, I know how competitive it is. But after some serious research, I have found a solution for you: go buy a $900,000 house. In the below-$300,000 market, there are fewer than 2.5 months of supply. That is one of the lowest months of inventory in the history of people keeping track of these numbers. In the $300,000 to $400,000-range, it only rises to just above 2.5 months. The $500,000 to $600,000-range is where the market finally starts getting healthy with about 6 months of inventory. Above that and it quickly gets unhealthy again with inventories above 7.5 months.”
“By the way, that $900,000 to $1M-range I mentioned at the beginning of this article has well over 10 months of inventory. Based on the laws of supply and demand, prices on sub-$400,000 homes are rising and prices on the $600,000 homes are lowering. The average price of a new home was $334,977 for the third quarter. With the increased costs, the builders are having to build more expensive homes to keep their margins. But if you look at the more expensive homes – there is a relative glut.”
The Real Deal on Florida. “HFZ Capital Group is canceling Fasano Residences Miami Beach, a 67-unit luxury condo project planned for the Shore Club hotel property, The Real Deal has learned. The New York developer began reaching out to buyers and is in the process of returning deposits, Jay Parker, CEO of Douglas Elliman Florida, told TRD. Fasano Residences joins projects like Auberge Residences & Spa Miami that have been canceled this cycle due to the challenging condo market. The Related Group canceled the Auberge luxury condo project and returned buyers’ deposits earlier this year. Another South Florida project, H3 Hollywood, also has been canceled and will be revived as rentals instead.”
“HFZ’s Shore Club Property Owner LLC paid $175.3 million for the hotel in late 2013, according to property records. The developer planned to close the 309-key hotel by the fall of last year but continued to take hotel reservations into 2018, when it was originally slated to reopen as a Fasano with 85 hotel rooms in addition to the condos. No permits for construction had been filed as of August, according to documents obtained by TRD. The hotel, which has been deteriorating in anticipation of the project, will keep operating.”
‘21,793 new rental units will be added to the market across the three boroughs by the end of this year. And another 21,434 units are expected to become available next year — meaning the rental glut is only going to get worse. ‘There are more people who bought in the buildings as an investment than I or anyone was aware of,’ said the Corcoran Group’s Robby Browne’
Here’s a shocker Robbie: all of these were speculative purchases. Every single one. The price didn’t make sense otherwise. And developers just followed that false demand, and now you guys are fooked because the end user isn’t there. Sucks to be you.
And BTW:
‘Hard costs are coming down now and contractors are a little hungrier. Building permits have gone down in the last two years about 70 to 80%.’
Your economy is in recession Robbie. Might want to move or find a new way to make a living. And stop making payments on the air-box. You’re going to default eventually.
Like most homeowners, they thought they were going to earn a small fortune. Instead they lost a large one.
It’s painful math. Painful painful math.
‘Based on the current absorption rate, that means there is a 3.7-year supply of apartments on the market’
And thousands on the way. This is Yellen bucks going to money heaven.
‘HFZ’s Shore Club Property Owner LLC paid $175.3 million for the hotel in late 2013…The hotel, which has been deteriorating in anticipation of the project, will keep operating.’
“This is Yellen bucks going to money heaven.”
Luckily there’s more where those came from, as the new chair is anticipated to continue with ultralow rates.
It doesn’t matter how low the rates are if no one wants to borrow, or if those who have money to lend don’t want to lend it to the people and projects who want the money.
“If you are looking for a new home under the $400,000 price range, I know how competitive it is. But after some serious research, I have found a solution for you: go buy a $900,000 house.”
Bahanahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Why stop there? Why not a $2,000,000 house?
Yet it’s still a $120k item brand new.
Sure, the lot only costs $5K LOL!
Sounds like my good friend got burned.
We certainly could use some of Manhattan’s rent deflation to help make San Diego housing affordable again. Contagion, please?
There seems to be the start of a trend of some renters becoming buyers (uptick in rental vacancy rate, downtick in homeowner vacancy rate).
A few articles have been written…combined with the new units coming on the market in SD, should take some pressure off of rents. I wouldn’t hold my breath on for-sale pricing though.
The WSJ ran the article yesterday “Millennial Home Buyers Send a Chill Through Rental Markets.” Apparently enough millennials have finally started to buy that rental vacancies are going up.
Looking forward to when contagion sparks the price decline equivalent of a California wildfire that sends real estate investors running for safety.
“But the plan takes aim at the mortgage interest deduction in another way, too, by eliminating deductions for mortgages on second homes. This could have a significant impact on certain areas of the country where vacation and second homes make up a disproportionate chunk of the local housing market.”
Wow…maybe my worker 🐝 friends will actually be able to obtain suitable housing if vacation and second, third and fourth homeowners capturing the mortgage deduction leave the demand pool.
‘Locals in Mission Beach and Pacific Beach who say their neighborhoods are increasingly jammed full of unregulated mini-hotels are right, according to the city treasurer’s annual count of short-term rentals. But other neighborhoods — downtown and North Park among them — are also seeing an uptick in apartments, condos, and homes that are no longer places where families live.’
‘Just more than 3300 homes are listed on the treasurer’s transit occupancy tax rolls. That’s somewhere between a half and a third of the estimated 6600 and 10,000 (Save San Diego Neighborhoods) short-term vacation rentals throughout the city. Both say their estimates are based on searches of sites including Airbnb, VRBO and FlipKey. The number registered with the treasurer is up between 15 and 25 percent from last year, according to the city’s data, released in spreadsheet form.’
‘Tom Coats has lived next door to a short-term rental house in Pacific Beach for eight and a half years. He says the five-bedroom house is not one of the dreaded party houses in his neighborhood.’
“It’s a house used for reunions and family gatherings, so the adults put the kids to bed and sit on the deck talking and drinking wine,” he said. “I lay in bed and hear them many nights a month.” Another nearby house is up for sale, Coats said. But not as a family home. “It’s being sold as an investment — the listing says the average monthly rent revenues are $9827. How can a family compete with that? We’ll get more and more investors until we’re a neighborhood without neighbors.”
‘The estimate of just a third of the owners registering is pretty consistent with what San Francisco found when the Office of Short Term Rentals began enforcing its 2014 ordinance, according to Omar Masry, acting director.’
“No one wants a clown car house next door,” Masry said. “We’ve had people put 16 bunk beds in each room and create a de facto hostel….”
“clown car house”
There’s that phrase! Clown car. Gee, I thought it referred to a gaggle of Republican presidential candidates.
I haven’t read anything to suggest the mortgage interest deduction for rental properties would be impacted by the proposed tax legislation. The mort int and SALT limits are Sch A itemized deductions proposals.
The mort int deduction for second homes is also a Sch A itemized deduction.
If someone is renting out via Air BnB, or monthly, etc. that interest is reported on Sch E and not subject to limitation.
Ha, and you think that an unregistered rental property will be showing that income on a tax form?
Cash rentals, no forms to fill out, no requirements from the city to do anything to comply with hotel laws, and you actually believe that that income will be shown to the taxing authorities.
Is it even possible to pay for an airbnb room with cash? Most of these transactions are done with debit credit cards. Cards that go through a 3rd party payment processor.
airbnb issues 1099s for rental income. Failing to report 1099 income will get you a nice letter from the IRS AUR (automated under reporter unit).
Failing to report income is one of the dumbest ways to evade taxes. You’ve clearly never been audited.
airbnb issues 1099s for rental income. Failing to report 1099 income will get you a nice letter from the IRS AUR (automated under reporter unit).
It depends on what info you provide to them. Shockingly, people do lie on tax forms.
Also, the 1099 applies only if you received over $20,000 and had more than 200 transactions.
https://www.airbnb.com/help/article/414/should-i-expect-to-receive-a-tax-form-from-airbnb
I would guess each separate reservation/check-in is a transaction. Unless you are renting out your place nearly every night on a one-night basis, or have many places you are renting, you are not likely to receive a 1099 from them.
As long as you stay under 200 “transactions” in a year, the IRS will never know.
Also what I found in San Jose is that Airbnb is also a 2 way screening method for potential roommates. When you’re new to an area book a stay here and there until you find the right place and if they like you too, make a deal and start paying them directly to stay there. The IRS doesn’t care about roommates, do they?
If someone is renting out via Air BnB, or monthly, etc. that interest is reported on Sch E and not subject to limitation ??
Its all in the fine print and I don’t want to read 400 pages…I will wait for something to pass and then attend some seminar that will summarize it…With that said, I have read many suggestions that to claim the interest deduction on a 2nd home the rental income must be equal too or exceed the interest deduction…I would be quite surprised if thats not the case in any new legislation….Stops people from claiming one months rent on a 2nd home and then claiming the entire year interest deduction…
Rental properties aren’t subject to the $1M cap now and they won’t be subject to the $500K proposed cap. Rental properties are treated as a business, with no caps on the amount of interest expense deduction.
Comment by oxide
2017-11-07
‘I still don’t buy the concept that LLs will drop their prices just to get someone into the unit.’
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10250#comment-2633031
Click!
Is it true that rents in Denver are coming down $2/sq ft? So an $1800/month 700 sq ft 2/2 now rents for $400/month? Something isn’t right.
Nothing decent in most parts of FL rent for $400.00, unless there’s some kind of a deal going on. That was the going rate when I first moved here in the 1980s.
I had a pretty good deal where I used to rent, for a long time. But the trade-off was dealing with some big-time deferred maintenance. Not to mention doing stuff for the LL that a renter wouldn’t normally do.
The place is now just “sitting there”, empty, lowball offers. At least, that’s what I hear. It does have some issues that a buyer would have to deal with, two of which are rather complex and not under the owner’s control, unfortunately. Let me put it this way: if I had been offered the place for free, I’d have had to give it some serious thought.
When I moved to Tampa in the early 1990s, my rent was $460 per month for a one-bedroom apartment in Carrollwood.
““Rents in downtown actually ‘are down $2 per sf,’ from a year ago, Bruteig said. ‘How can that be? Why would rents fall?’
Oxy has assured us for several years that this is absolutely unpossible.
What bugs me is the figure of $2/sq ft. Apts are at least 500 sq ft. That figure must be per year, not per month. $80/month drop for a $1800 apt is believable.
The $1800 apartment is likely 1200 ft2. I expect you are right that an $1800 a month rent won’t drop by $2400.
https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/co/denver/
DebtDonkey
Denver, CO 80202 Housing Prices Crater 6% YOY
https://www.zillow.com/denver-co-80202/home-values/
*Select price on dropdown menu under first chart
It is an old game that today’s government and banks are playing…
+++++
Monete cudende ratio – Essay on the Coinage of Money (1526)
Nicolaus Copernicus
Although there are countless scourges which in general debilitate kingdoms, principalities, and republics, the four most important (in my judgment) are dissension, [abnormal] mortality, barren soil, and debasement of the currency. The first three are so obvious that nobody is unaware of their existence. But the fourth, which concerns money, is taken into account by few persons and only the most perspicacious. For it undermines states, not by a single attack all at once, but gradually and in a certain covert manner.
Coinage is imprinted gold or silver, by which the prices of things bought and sold are reckoned according to the regulations of any State or its ruler. Therefore money is, as it were, a common measure of values. That which ought to be a measure, however, must always preserve a fixed and constant standard. Otherwise, public order is necessarily disturbed, with buyers and sellers being cheated in many ways, just as if the yard, bushel, or pound did not maintain an invariable magnitude. Hence this measure is in my opinion the coin’s face value.
Money loses its value most of all through excessive abundance, if so much silver is coined as to heighten people’s desire for silver bullion more than for coined money. For in this way the coinage’s market value vanishes when with it it is not possible to buy as much silver as the money itself contains, and is found a greater advantage in destroying the coin by melting the silver. The solution is to mint no more coinage until it recovers its par value and becomes more desirable than silver.
It is not in the least advisable to introduce a new, good coinage while an old, debased coinage remains in circulation. How much worse was this mistake, while an old, better coinage remained in circulation, to introduce a new, debased coinage, which not only spoiled the old coinage but, so to say, swept away!
But maybe someone will argue that cheap money is more convenient for human needs, forsooth, by alleviating the poverty of people, lowering the price of food, and facilitating the supply of all the other necessities of human life, whereas sound money makes everything dearer, while burdening tenants and payers of an annual rental more heavily than usual. This point of view will be applauded by those who were heretofore granted the right to coin money and would be deprived of the hope of gain. Nor will it perhaps be rejected by merchants and artisans, who lose nothing on that account since they sell their goods and products in terms of gold, and the cheaper the money is, the greater is the number of coins they receive in exchange.
But if they will have regard for the common good, they will surely be unable to deny that sound money benefits not only the state but also themselves and every class of people, whereas debased coinage is harmful.
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/11.17/coinage.html
Ok. Math time.
$5,600,000 sales price at 30 years, 4% = $26,700 per month
Property taxes? = $3,000 per month (at least)
HOA? = $1,000 per month (at least)
Insurance? = $1,000 per month (at least)
Total = $31,700 per month
So basically the condo/broker was HOPING to JUST BREAK EVEN.
Now the alligator will eat about $9,000 a month. If it rents!
I wonder when she decides to walk away?
++++
The Real Deal on New York. “Over the summer, broker Reba Miller had high hopes that her rental listing at 56 Leonard Street would fetch $32,000 a month. The owner had signed a contract on the new condominium more than three years earlier, and the plan was to sell it and collect a tidy profit. But with new development resales ‘not lining up to what everyone dreamed and wanted,’ Miller said the owners decided to rent it out until the right buyer came along. The owners relisted the apartment in August, but with the rent reduced by nearly 30 percent. ‘That $23,000 is a giveaway price,’ Miller said.”
I don’t think that anyone is pulling a 30-year mortgage for these multi-million dollar condos in New York. Wouldn’t it more likely be people with money buying them outright. But it’s still a $5K/month alligator.
If the condo was bought outright - there is still the cost of the opportunity loss of that money.
That $5.6M could be in ultra-safe 2.7% Treasuries.
Or in ATT stock at 5.9% dividends.
Time value of money.
The alligator is about $9k per month no matter how much financed and how much was a down payment.
or bitcoin
A lot of these condos are bought will illicit money overseas, from crime syndicates or drug money.
Absolutely not. Wealthy people will take out a 4% loan since they know they can get a better return on their money elsewhere.
I asked you last week why investors didn’t put their money in a Vanguard Admiral Fund, and you said it was because of loans. Now you said it isn’t loaned out and I ask again, why not just outright invest it somewhere else.
Too me it seems like a lot of exposure to risk, or massive fraud to launder money.
I don’t remember the the Vanguard comment.
Maybe the owners bought the house outright as a second home to stay in while they were in NYC. Seems like a stupid thing to do, tho.
Because Wall Street is crooked! Stocks (funds) are risky!
But real estate is REAL.
The number of people who would want to rent in that price range must be very small, even with the draw of NYC. We’re talking incomes >600-800K/yr and yet doesn’t already have a home/condo/place of their own and doesn’t mind renting.
FiNAnciAl EngInEering is awesome!
‘Maui County taxpayers will be paying millions more every year into the state Employees’ Retirement System, according to the system’s executive director, Thom Williams.’
http://www.mauinews.com/opinion/columns/2017/11/maui-budget-crisis-has-begun/
Ever notice that the downside to artificially low interest rates is never discussed? Here you have a pension dragging the local government down and no one asks Yellen about the feds role in it. Oh, right, she’s out-a-here and keeps her pension.
2banana’s Rule
Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh*t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy
You sound like one of those divisive racist deplorable types. Everyone knows diversity + unions + high taxes + anti-business climate is utopia. Hartford is booming these days. As is Chicago.
And in the nation’s soon to be third largest city…
http://www.chron.com/news/politics/houston/article/Reforms-locked-in-as-Houston-voters-approve-1B-12339613.php
The rule is always correct.
2banana’s Rule
Long term democrat rule + public unions + free sh*t army = misery, ruin and bankruptcy
2-fruits rule runs into a wall….
State Sen. Paul Bettencourt, a Houston Republican who pushed for the referendum,
What a shock, a DemoRAT mayor screwing things up and forcing new debt obligations onto taxpayers. There’s a reason Houston is such a commuter city- it’s because people have to work there but more and more people want to live in the surrounding counties where some smeblance of order still remains
And yet where were all the ridiculously-priced “luxury” apartments and condos built?
Surprisingly, in a Seattle suburb, the voters actually said no to new taxes. Well they didn’t say no, they said Yes by 59%. But it requires a 60% yes to be enacted.
I’m sure the local Dems will find a few ballots in someone’s car soon enough though.
But even so, 59% want more taxes on top of the taxes that were raised in 2016 and 2014 and 2012. I always assumed there would be some limit to how much people are willing to pay. I’m starting to think there isn’t. There is a majority of people out there who will gladly hand over 100% of their money to the govt.
Hit Add Comment too soon….
In Seattle itself, i.e. King County, yet another tax increase was approved with 66% of the vote. An increase of 3.5% on property taxes for the next 6 years. And what will this money be for? Help “vulnerable populations”, ie illegals, drug addicts and other Democrat clients.
Given that property tax can easily run $15K a year in Seattle, a 3.5% increase is not chump change. I have a feeling most of the voters don’t even read these things. They just hear from their friends that voting No means you are racist and they vote Yes.
Funny thing is last election the county also voted to increase car registration fees. And after the county, you know, raised fees, people were freaking out that their tab payents went up $200 a year. They voted for it in November and in January there were stories in the local rags about how unfair it is for people to have their tab fees increased. You can’t make this shyte up.
You are not telling the whole story here.
The real reason that people are upset about car tabs is that the state once again uses a very-favorable-to-them depreciation schedule based upon the MSRP (not what you actually paid) in order to calculate the annual transit fee owed, and for cars less than 10 years old, this has caused people’s annual fees to significantly increase, in some cases by several hundred dollars per vehicle per year.
Nonsense. The vote was to do exactly what was done. They voted for higher registration fees, Then when the fees went up they complained. These goobers don’t even know what they vote for. They just know if the MSM says it’s for the children, they will vote Yes and anyone who says otherwise is a white supremacist.
https://patch.com/washington/seattle/1-500-car-tab-renewal-puget-sound-residents-shocked-fees
SEATTLE, WA - Drivers in Pierce, King, and Snohomish counties are getting shocked by sky-high car tab fees this year, according to reports.
One Tesla driver received a bill for $1,500, according to KOMO News. Driver Robert Klem told the station he was stunned when he opened the bill.”
BWA HA HA HA HA!! Choke on it Robert.
this has caused people’s annual fees to significantly increase, in some cases by several hundred dollars per vehicle per year.
Good gravy, I’ve never paid that much for car registration, not even on a new car. My bill this year was about $180.
I take it you’ve never lived in New England? In CT and MA (and probably others) there is a property tax levied on cars. And it’s based on the value of the car. Buy a $40K new car and the first few years, you will pay $1500 a year for the privilege of owning it.
We have a property tax on cars here too. When my car was new (MSRP ~ 30K) the tax and registration was about $500. In a few more years it should be about $100.
Vehicle excise tax is not the same as registration fees, at least not in MA.
Excise tax is yearly, car registration is every two years. Totally separate.
“Pension bond” ?! They’re borrowing money to prop up generous city employee pension plans?!
I can’t wait to see how this country is going to look in, say, 2030. Boomers, admittedly, contributed a lot to the economy in the 80s and 90s. But now they are sucking down pensions, Medicare, and Social Security like there’s no tomorrow.What’s going to happen when they are gone? Ha, probably then the money will go to diabetes treatment for all the obese Millenials and GenX.
Here in the Centennial there is talk of making the state employees contribute more to PERA. They are of course unhappy with that, as they want the taxpayers to make them whole. Unfortunately for PERA pensioners there’s this thing called TABOR.
I’m not worried about boomers drain on the entitlement programs. I work as an RN in a hospital, and I can say that their health is generally quite poor (as is that of most other group). Much like the housing correction we’re due for, we’re in for a major reversal in life expectancy. I predict that the next 10 years will be quite helpful to the public coffers as deaths from alcohol, opioids, suicide, and heart disease continue to push down life expectancy here in the US.
You do realize that you are seeing a sample with massive levels of selection bias—right?
In other words, the healthy boomers are the ones you don’t encounter in the hospital.
Yes, but the data support my anecdotal observations. This is not just my personal, armchair view. If you’ve been watching the epidemiological studies coming out about huge uptick in suicides, alcohol, and opioid deaths, in the past few years, you’d be tuned into this.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-23/americans-are-retiring-later-dying-sooner-and-sicker-in-between
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2016/12/why-are-so-many-americans-dying-young/510455/
What are possible causes of falling life expectancy? Here are several potential culprits:
“We might be seeing the drag that decades of stagnant wages, growing inequality, and the associated behavioral (e.g. smoking, diet, activity) and psychosocial (e.g. chronic stress, depression) factors have on eventual mortality,” said Michael Kramer, a professor of epidemiology at Emory University, via e-mail. Americans are hit harder than other rich countries are by these forces, he posits, both because of our skimpy preventive health care and because “the U.S. has higher income inequality and less comprehensive social safety net, so the ill-effects of poverty may take an undo toll.”
Also:
“If it was all about opioids, we might focus our efforts on [that issue],” said Ellen Meara, a professor at the Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice. “But we see that strokes, heart disease, and chronic lower respiratory disease deaths are rising as well, suggesting the problem is even more widespread than we thought.”
Much of the increase in mortality can be explained by obesity. In 2015, weight problems accounted for more than 10 percent of all American deaths, according to Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, but just 7 percent in the U.K. and 3 percent in Japan.
However, poverty and its associated struggles, such as depression, stress, and poor nutrition, are also clearly playing a role.
Well, the plan is working quite nicely, isn’t it? A poor, sick, stressed out, obese and opioid addicted population is less likely to rise up and protest en masse in the streets. Better yet that they die off one by one and reduce the burden on the wealthier and healthier! Disclaimer: I am also an R.N.
“Better yet that they die off one by one and reduce the burden on the wealthier and healthier!”
I was reading a few months ago a column dedicated to when individuals should take their social security benefits. Not only is income inequality already at dire levels in the US, there is growing inequality of death, meaning that there is a growing gap between when the wealthy and the poor die. This makes it so that the lifetime safety net benefits from social security from the poor are slated to be dramatically less than those from upper income levels. Ironically, social security is going to start benefiting the wealthy more than the poor due to differential death rates, even though it was initially setup to protect the poor from poverty in old age.
“Not only is income inequality already at dire levels in the US”
income inequality is totally irrelevant. it’s just a leftist talking point to garner support for socialist policies that end up harming the economy.
what really matters is the general prosperity of a nation.
‘While conventional wisdom might suggest it is time for developers to shy away from building, there are some in New York who say the market is ripe for new apartments. Rents have fallen by nearly 2% in Manhattan this year compared to 2016, and in places like Downtown Brooklyn, where thousands of units are coming online at the same time, fears of a glut have developers offering high concessions.’
‘Experienced developers realize now is the time to develop,’ Alchemy Properties founder Ken Horn said.’
And yet:
‘Across all price points, the rental market is challenged. Citi Habitats estimates that 21,793 new rental units will be added to the market across the three boroughs by the end of this year. And another 21,434 units are expected to become available next year — meaning the rental glut is only going to get worse’
I just got this in an email:
‘Major Reduction | 101 20th Street, Unit TH-D, Miami Beach’
‘Intimate and serene corner residence with floor to ceiling windows, vaulted ceilings, wood floors and a breathtaking ocean view from a private balcony. The Setai is an oceanfront resort in the heart of South Beach, designed in an artful Asiatic inspired atmosphere. The 40-story glass tower that surpasses all around, in elevation, views and design along with bespoke services and amenities with elegant rooftop pool, spa and gardens also includes a state-of-the art recording studio. Setai features their well renowned restaurant Jaya and was awarded the Forbes Travel Guide Five Star Award in 2015 and 2016. Directly waterfront on the beach and within walking distance to the New World Symphony, Bass Museum and many more of South Beach’s preferred destinations.’
3.2 million
I looked it up:
Nov 7, 2017
Price Changed
MARMLS #A10070872
$3,200,000 —
May 25, 2017
Price Changed
MARMLS #A10070872
$3,595,000 —
May 4, 2016
Listed (Active)
MARMLS #A10070872
$3,950,000
https://www.redfin.com/FL/Miami-Beach/101-20th-St-33139/unit-THD/home/104009362#property-history
state-of-the art recording studio????
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
white el·e·phant
noun: white elephant; plural noun: white elephants
-a possession that is useless or troublesome, especially one that is expensive to maintain or difficult to dispose of.
“Broadly speaking, “renowned” on its own is enough in most practical cases (this restaurant is renowned for its fine cuisine).”
The MID and SALT changes will hit rich people in the gonads. Yet laughably the MSM/Democrat Party (but there I go repeating myself) are demonizing it as a tax cut for the rich. This is because MSM/Democrat Party lies 100% of the time.
Ain’t gonna happen. They couldn’t repeal Obamacare. MID and SALT won’t be repealed.
Then that means no tax plan either, because without MID and SALT, the tax plan will add more than $1.5 trillion to the deficit and can’t be passed under reconciliation, which means it will take 60 senators to approve instead of 50.
Yup, no tax plan.
Kaawa, Hawaii Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY As Housing Demand Plummets To 20 Year Low
https://www.movoto.com/kaaawa-hi/market-trends/
I checked rates for health insurance for next year, now that enrollment is open.
Only a 19% increase for me. This Affordable Care Act gets more and more affordable every year. Thanks Dems. And thanks GOP for keeping it in place. You guys both rock!
Thank Senator Brain Tumor McCain and his fellow lying NeoCon shills like GIldebrand and Murkowski.
I legitimately can’t wait for McCain to die. If there’s a heaven, he’ll never see it.
If there’s a heaven, he’ll never see it ??
The fact that you used the word “if” demonstrates that you are not qualified to have an legitimate opinion.
The fact that you don’t seem to care or complain or understand about the skyrocketing costs of healthcare vs. what all the supporters initially said about it demonstrates that you are not qualified for much of anything.
/pol/ tidbits:
McCain does not/did not have a brain tumor. Setting up plausible deniability for possible future testimony. Mayo Clinic would have to be complicit.
McCain and Hillary are wearing boots to conceal ankle monitors.
That is all 😉
42% increase for me
When I said *only* I was only 1/2 being sarcastic. In a perverse way 19% is actually pretty good, given that others like you are getting hammered much worse.
But you know….AFFORDABLE!!
Did you at least get to keep your doctor?
Well I don’t have a “my doctor”. The only time I use the insurance if the odd time I go to urgent care for the flu or whatever. My kids had to switch docs a couple of years ago since the new policy didn’t contract out with their doctor they’d had since birth.
Funny enough nobody from CNN ever wants to tell my story. But if a drug addict illegal loses his insurance….24/7 coverage.
#ThisIsWhyTrumpWon
Happy Trumpversary!
Why is anything Uncle Sam labels Affordable actually the exact opposite?
According to the National Association of Realtors, 12 percent of residential properties purchased in 2016 were vacation homes.
? is this high?
on HIV.tv they are all getting rich w beach front converted apartment shtbag condo conversions
Prolly under-the-table AirBnB.
Yes, 12% is high. The highest on record was 2015 IIRC, which was 15% second shacks.
O brave new world,
That has such bubbles in it!
Realtors are liars.
…. and every closing a crime scene.
Speaking of crimes, I had two fraudsters call me today. One pretended to be from the IRS, wanting to discuss an urgent tax debt I supposedly had. Told him that the IRS doesn’t call people on the phone. He immediately hung up.
The other one said that there was a licensing problem with the copy of Windows on my computer. I asked him what the make and model of the computer in question was. He immediately hung up.
I typically get a couple of calls like those every week.
I typically get a couple of calls like those every week.
Some days I get a dozen calls like that. I screen them all on my answering machine & only answer voices I recognize.
For the first time ever, I got a call from a broker trying to sell me on buying a public security. It was a short call.
the cabal wants to fleece u again. dont let them keep hosing u!
Ashford, WA Housing Prices Crater 7% YOY On Ballooning Housing Inventory
https://www.movoto.com/ashford-wa/market-trends/
My favorite Trump cartoon:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/media.wbur.org/wordpress/11/files/2016/04/Noth__0090898.jpg
A Tribe Called Quest — Show Business (1991):
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zflDclWNiOg
J81U82I83
Greenwich Riches, Bridgeport Woes Tell Tale of Two Connecticuts
By Rebecca Spalding
November 6, 2017, 6:00 AM EST
The Chinese delegation wanted to know how it could duplicate the success of hedge-fund mecca Greenwich, Connecticut.
The visitors asked: What is the wealthiest state in America doing to foster the industry that earned the region its “Gold Coast” nickname?
“After we’re all done laughing, we tell them the truth,’’ said Bruce McGuire, founder of the Connecticut Hedge Fund Association. “They haven’t done anything. They’re actually thinking about how they can kick us all out of town.”
In China, the government is building “fund towns” and offering tax breaks to attract money managers and boost the financial industry. In Connecticut, the legislature considered a 19 percent tax hike on investment gains as a way to close a federal loophole on so-called carried interest. Proponents saw it as a way to narrow the second-widest wealth disparity in the country. Critics said it was a tacit invitation for tax-burdened hedge-fund firms to bolt.
The threat that one of the state’s most successful industries could leave isn’t an empty one. Paul Tudor Jones of Tudor Investment Corp. left the state for Florida, a lower-tax state, in 2016, according to a residence filing in Palm Beach County.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-06/greenwich-riches-bridgeport-woes-tell-tale-of-two-connecticuts
Democrats will always kill the goose that lays the golden eggs to stay in power.
They will bankrupt their city, county or state. Then demand a bailout.
Free sh*t army and public union support will always come first.
*****
“I was trying to understand the mindset of why they’ve decided that hedge funds are the enemy, that we’ve caused these problems,” he said. “We didn’t cause GE to move away. We didn’t cause the manufacturing sector to move out of Connecticut. We’re not whispering in the ears of the insurance industry telling them to move to Iowa. We’re actually still living and working here.”
As far as bankruptcy is concerned, hedge funds have royally screwed a ton of retailers in the past few years by loading them up with so much debt. These masters of finance have done enormous damage playing with easy credit.
America’s ‘Retail Apocalypse’ Is Really Just Beginning
The reason isn’t as simple as Amazon.com Inc. taking market share or twenty-somethings spending more on experiences than things. The root cause is that many of these long-standing chains are overloaded with debt—often from leveraged buyouts led by private equity firms. There are billions in borrowings on the balance sheets of troubled retailers, and sustaining that load is only going to become harder—even for healthy chains.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-retail-debt/
another day another market high. Things are going great with 6700 store closings announced in an economy based 70% on consumers buying stuff.
This is a mirage.
Oh to be rich N faymoos
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/See-Inside-Mike-Myers-Stunning-Soho-Penthouse-on-the-Market-for-1395M-456179893.html
Hope there’s an elevator in there somewhere. Imagine carrying your laundry up to the roof.
Dysfunctional Galley kitchen with what looks to be a Galley Master bath?
The price has dropped by just over $3 million?
Keep going.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoXORtIibwQ
i have pulled all the equity I can. Is it time to pull the plug on this shack?
Time to default and walk away. Congress will forgive the taxes you owe on your forgiven debt.
Congress will forgive the taxes you owe on your forgiven debt.
Only if there are a massive number of defaults. If there aren’t a lot, defaulters will be screwed.
Keller, TX Housing Prices Crater 10% YOY
https://www.movoto.com/keller-tx/market-trends/
“Rents have fallen by nearly 2% in Manhattan this year compared to 2016,”
So a 1 bedroom has gone from $3500 to $3465. WOW!! I can finally move to NYC and live like a king.
I am enjoying watching the freakout of people in NY and CA at the prospect of losing their precious SALT deductions. You want to pay lower taxes? Two options
1. Move
2. Stop voting for socialists
What you want is 3. make me subsidize your state’s tax and spend policies. That is no longer an option.
3. Sit back and watch it crater. Buy it later for 75% less.
I’m not freaking out (in CA, with taxes set to INCREASE for me based on no SALT deduction).
I love the fact that my fellow Californians will be less cavalier simply raising taxes in the future since the Federal Government is picking up a meaningful portion of the tab.
I also like a lot of the freebies being pulled out of the tax code (lowering MID, only get tax free gain on home sales every 5, not every 2, years, etc.).
Alas, I suspect the MID and SALT deductions will probably stay though–too many people with their hand in that till, the political pressure will be massive to keep it.
I suspect we’ll see a corporate tax rate of more than 20%, and a SALT deduction allowed of up to $x in the final deal.